Report Public Meeting: Ian Brzezinski – ‘The Transatlantic Relationship and Donald Trump’

4 December 2017 ‘Glazen Zaal’, The Hague

On Monday the 4th of December, Ian Brzezinski was invited by the Netherlands Atlantic Association to speak about Donald Trump’s foreign policy and the transatlantic relationship. Brezinski is a Resident Senior Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security of the of the and served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for and NATO Policy in 2001–2005, under President George W. Bush. The moderator for the evening was Paul Brill, former foreign affairs columnist at De Volkskrant, who led the public event in the ‘Glazen Zaal’. 130 diplomats, civil servants, relations of the Netherlands Atlantic Association, students and other guests were present at the meeting.

The evening started with an introduction of both the subject and the speaker of the meeting by Paul Brill. With Trump in office for almost a year, has he affected the relationship between Europe and the United States in a negative way? Has US foreign policy changed for the worse? These questions plagued the audience and Ian Brzezinski set out to try and answer them.

Brzezinski stated that when we want to understand Trump’s foreign policy, a better understanding of the context in which he became president is needed. The global security environment the past year has been complex. The US does not dominate the world anymore. Instead, Trump finds himself as the leader of the strongest nation in a multipolar world, unable to assert his will like his predecessors in the late 90s. Moreover, the US is threatened, not only by rival states like China in the South China Sea, but also by terrorist organisations and (nuclear) rogue states. In this world, according to Brzezinski, the transatlantic relationship is essential. As a moderate Republican, Brzezinski was not a supporter of Trump. He found his

1 style too authoritarian and too much focused on ‘America First’, thereby dismissing the idea of a global community. Brzezinski wanted to make clear, however, that the Trump administration is not failing on every aspect or that the US has abandoned its commitment to the transatlantic relationship. Trump might be a Jacksonian president, but he is an active one. He increased the American presence in Afghanistan and assisted the Iraqi government and the Peshmerga forces to combat ISIL. He issued new sanctions against Russia and his administration named Russia responsible for the invasion of the Donbass region. He has recommitted to NATO, unlike Obama who withdrew forces from Europe and focused on the Asian Pivot. Moreover, as Brzezinski reminded the audience, the US is more than Trump. Congress is still fully supportive of the transatlantic relationship, demanding that the US spends more of its military budget on NATO. The American public is also highly supportive: more than 70% is backing the alliance, a recent high point. Instead of focusing on the US and the negative aspects of Trump’s foreign policy, Europe should look at itself and what it can do to contribute to a stronger transatlantic relationship. Will Europe deploy more forces and increase spending on the military or will we get more of the same? As Brzezinski put it: “US foreign policy might be lacking, but the fate of transatlanticism is up to Europe.”

After his presentation, Brzezinski was asked by Paul Brill if the 2% percent rule of NATO should be kept or if NATO should reformulate this goal? His response was that, although European countries invest a lot in development aid, they still have to do the dirty work as well. NATO’s defensive capabilities are not sufficient at this point and will never be if we do not maintain military spending. Brzezinski said that, in the light of the 4% that the US spends yearly on its military, “2% is not that demanding.”

The Q&A session afterwards reflected the themes that were discussed by Brzezinski: US foreign policy under Trump and, even more prominently, the defence of Europe against a possible Russian invasion. On this last point Brzezinski kept reminding the audience that the US is bearing most of the costs of NATO and that Europe should do more.

The Q&A session ended with Brzezinski thanking the Dutch servicemen and women for their efforts during the missions in Afghanistan.

Niels Rood and Ruben Barink

2