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Newsletter Number 73 June 2011

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Newsletter Number 73 June 2011 ISSN 0112-2649 The New Zealand Statistical Association stats.org.nz Newsletter Number 73 June 2011 NZSA 2011 Conference acknowledges the financial support of this conference from SAS, Travelex and the University of Auckland University of Auckland as platinum sponsors. 28 - 31 August 2011 Keynote and Invited Speakers We are delighted to invite you to the 62nd annual meeting of the New Zealand Statistical Association Trevor Hastie which will be held in the world-class Owen G. Glenn Professor of Statistics and Biostatistics, Stanford Business School at the University of Auckland, University New Zealand, from Sunday 28th to Wednesday Xihong Lin 31st August 2011. Full details of the conference are Professor of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public available at www.nzsa2011.org.nz Health Themes Robert Gentleman Papers are invited from any field of probability Senior Director, Genentech and statistics. Student presentations are especially welcome. Submissions from academia and industry Nick Fisher on all topics of statistical methodologies are ValueMetrics Australia welcome. The topics include, but are not limited Alan Welsh to the fields of applied statistics, biometrics, EJ Hannan Professor of Statistics and the Head of bioinformatics, biostatistics, data mining, ecology, the Centre for Mathematics and its Applications at experimental design, genetics, probability and the Australian National University. stochastic processes, statistical computing and statistical graphics, sample surveys, statistics See http://www.nzsa2011.org.nz/speakers.php for education, quality improvement and industrial more information. statistics. There will be a special session celebrating the contributions of Professor Alan Lee to the field and to the statistical community. Travel Grants and Student Prizes The NZSA has some funds available to support students at New Zealand universities travelling to the conference. There will be financial awards for the best student presentations, sponsored by Hoare Research Software. Sponsors The New Zealand Statistical Association gratefully Published by the New Zealand Statistical Association (Inc.), P.O. Box 1731, Wellington, New Zealand. The views expressed by contributors to this Newsletter should not be attributed to the New Zealand Statistical Association. 1 1 Registration thanks to you all! Registration is at www.nzsa2011.org.nz. Student Finally, in lieu of a “numbers in the news” registrations receive a 50% discount. Members of the contribution, I’d like to draw your attention to NZSA and SSAI also receive a discount. a piece by David Winter from the University of Conference Dinner Otago. David’s article, entitled “Ken Ring can’t The conference dinner is to be held on the Tuesday predict earthquakes” is too long to reproduce here, evening (August 30th) at the Bluestone Room in the but the link is http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/ken-ring- city centre. The cost is included in the registration. can%E2%80%99t-predict-earthquakes-ck-87640 for Extra tickets may be purchased for $90 per person. any interested individuals. I look forward to seeing many of you at the Accommodation and Travel conference. Delegates are asked to make their own arrangements Esther Meenken as soon as possible. New Zealand will be hosting the Rugby World Cup approximately a week after President’s Column the conference. Auckland also has performances of Cirque Du Soleil at the same time. Hotels expect to be In my last column I wrote extremely busy and conference attendees are advised about the Christchurch to make bookings early. The conference organisers September earthquake and have reserved a small number of rooms at the Quest described the important on Eden which may be booked through Alexandra role statistics played in Miliotis ([email protected]). informing the public. Statistics was in the visual displays of data in the newspaper graphs, the earthquake website that were constantly updated, and modelling of risk and damage impact. In this column, my message is the same, statistics and earthquakes, but I am writing this with such a feeling of grief, loss and sorrow. What a tragic time it has been over the last few months. In Christchurch there has been so much loss and now there is the Editorial ongoing daily grind of life here. My daily challenge Firstly I’d like to is how to get across town with damaged roads, how express my deepest sorrow to avoid the dust and potholes on my bicycle, how to and condolences to Roger lecture in a tent, how to hold together our department Littlejohns’ family. Whilst here at University when we have no building putting this newsletter access, how to support friends in businesses that are together it’s so clear that struggling, and how to deal with my own grief for Roger touched the lives friends who have died. of many individuals in In the midst of this, Roger Littlejohn passed away. the statistics community Roger was a friend to everyone – he was a champion with his kindness, generosity, and willingness to go for statistics and we will all miss him so much. the extra mile. There is a dedicated page for Roger Yet despite this rather sombre tone, I am still overleaf, but in no way is this the sum of our respect writing the same as I wrote in September – once - there is a common theme running throughout many again, I am humbled by the actions of the statistics contributions expressing not only his achievements community. In Christchurch we received so many but how valued he was. messages of support from statisticians in New Secondly, I want to thank those same contributors Zealand and overseas. The NZSA is a community. from the bottom of my boots. This newsletter would We share our love of statistics, but we are all people naturally be nothing without the effort that many and that is why we are members. We are here for people make to gather information, stories and each other and for the support we all give and we pictures. This month an extra effort was made, and I all receive. can’t say how much I appreciate this. This newsletter Thank you. has been a pleasure to put together, and that is purely Jennifer Brown 23 ANZJS Corner see Van Nierop, E. (2009) Why do statistics journals ANZJS Editors’ Column have low impact factors? In New Zealand, the Statistica Neerlandica, end of the current six 63, 52–62. There are other year period for the internal measures such as Performance-Based eigen analysis, but these are Research Fund (PBRF) no more comprehensive, is fast approaching, even given their additional with its publication cut- complexity. off at the end of 2011. During assessment In Australia, there is exercises for individuals, such as the PBRF, the currently a journal re- journal rankings derived from IF and categorisation ranking exercise through into A*, A, B and C journals are perhaps too often the Australian Research interpreted to apply to all papers published in a given Council (ARC). Such events impinge not just on journal. There is also a regrettable absence of external authors submitting papers, but on journals too validation or even any obvious interest in considering through submission rates, impact factors, and A* and external measures. A journal ratings. For further detail, see, for example, This is particularly difficult for applied statistics http://www.tec.govt.nz/Funding/Fund-finder/ papers, the best of which may have considerable and Performance-Based-Research-Fund-PBRF-/ even immediate practical consequence, even if they http://www.arc.gov.au/era/tiers_ranking.htm do not always develop substantive new statistical http://www.arc.gov.au/era/era_journal_list.htm theory. At the other end of the spectrum, theoretical These measures create a framework in which papers may take considerable time to be recognised performance both of authors and journals is assessed. as important. Student’s seminal paper on the The measures are all internal in the sense that it is t-statistic provides a well-known historical example. agreement within a profession or discipline rather For further detail on Student see Boland, P.J. (2000). than reference to consequence outside this arena that William Sealy Gosset (Student) 1876-1937. In: Ken determines “success”. Houston (eds). Creators of Mathematics: The Irish But is this all that is needed? Connection. Dublin: UCD Press. To use a yacht racing analogy, rating rules Nevertheless, despite the difficulties of determine boat design, but do not guarantee measurement, recognition of impact needs to sufficiently strong links to the external world. The be extended beyond internal measures. Sound Fastnet tragedy in 1979, where 23 yachts were assessment measures also need to acknowledge that lost or abandoned in appalling conditions because not all papers in an A* journal are excellent, nor seaworthiness was not a sufficiently explicit part of all papers in a B journal mediocre. In essence the the rating requirements, provides a tragic example. problem in using journal rankings to assess individual Of course, the consequences in academic papers is statistical - measuring the importance of a publishing are not so obviously dire, but the question paper only by the journal in which it is published is of external validation, and even validation outside to use a population measure of impact without proper a particular discipline when there is overlap with recognition of the large variation in importance another, still remains. between published articles even in the same journal. Journals are ranked using various measures. One However, as authors and editors, we currently of the most common is impact factor (IF), determined need to work within the established system. So, as its by the number of citations of papers published in managing editor, I encourage you to support ANZJS a journal within some specified time window. In by submitting good papers soon.
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