SPECIAL EDITION OF THE ATLANTIC TIMES FOR THE 52ND MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE

February 2016 Munich, Germany

In this issue

Powerless guardians 2 The crises most preoccupying the world transcend – and throw into question – borders and boundaries. An era of instability has begun, argues Wolfgang Ischinger.

Doing the possible 3 In today’s woebegone state of the world, de- escalatory diplomacy and compartmentalized cooperation are the order of the day. Realpolitik is back, writes Theo Sommer. Don’t do stupid stuff Dangerous drift 4 The global economy has succumbed The state of the world: forty-four pages of analysis and assessment to what some describe as secular stagnation. Robin Niblett explains how this affects the security of the world.

Time to compromise 6-13 Ukraine, Iran, Syria: Russia and the West are at odds. Michael Stürmer, Steven Pifer, James Hackett, Dmitri Trenin, Łukasz Kulesa, Michael Rühle and Tomasz Chłoń consider strategies for NATO to manage – or adapt to – these confrontations.

IMAGO STOCK&PEOPLE Upping the ante 14 The previous two years were something like a crash course in geopolitical realism for post-Cold War Germany. Volker Perthes assesses Germany’s “new” foreign policy.

Power struggle 17 Crisis, conflict, dialogue Saudi-Iranian conflict has been escalating for months. It is the Cold War of the Middle German foreign policy in a tumultuous world: punching our weight East. Tomas Avenarius analyzes their rein- vigorated struggle for regional hegemony. By Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier

Syria sinking 18 IMAGO/XINHUA The international community has been unable to end or even curb the war in Syria. ore than any other event Commission has already put forward none of the steps ahead will be easy – In all of these endeavors – be it in the The suspension of “proximity talks” in recent history, the the outlines of a broader mandate for the recent escalation between Saudi Middle East or in Eastern Europe – our quickly dispelled any hint of optimism, current refugee crisis Frontex, and we are working hard to Arabia and Iran bears witness to that. transatlantic relationship is of critical writes Andrea Böhm. has illustrated that the implement the far-reaching agreement But crises like these can and must be importance. The diplomatic punch and worldM has walked through our front with Turkey in order to reduce and alleviated by diplomacy. Our message the security guarantee of the United door – mostly without knocking first. manage the flow of refugees. Clearly, to Riyadh and Tehran is clear: Both States remain indispensable. It is in Age of ambition 27 The effect of a civil war 3,000 kilo- we will not achieve a solution over- countries bear a broader responsibility this context that Germany actively China’s recent movements have dramatically meters away is on display in German night. But we are already in the process for the stability of the region. contributes to conflict resolution, be changed the security environment in Asia. schools, gyms and on the streets. And it of implementing a bundle of measures In Eastern Europe we have also made it in the context of the E3+3 or the Japan’s Former State Secretary for Defense sheds a clear light on our responsibili- that will help us tackle the crisis. some real progress since we last met at Vienna talks on Syria. Masataka Suzuki asserts that Beijing faces ties for Europe and abroad. I admit: this is not going to be an easy the Munich Security Conference. The Germany wants to be a facilitator, great difficulties if it extends its operations Two years ago at the Munich Secu- road, but it is the only one which will situation in Ukraine is far from perfect. enabling dialogue and supporting from the East China Sea into the Pacific. rity Conference, we discussed how not lead into a dead end. Ultimately, Yet compared to the situation we had negotiation processes. We have stepped shouldering international responsibil- however, we will not be able to bring last summer, when we were almost up our commitment of both diplomatic ity starts at home. This insight has the influx of refugees back down to running into an open war, Ukraine energy and resources to civilian stabili- On the rise 33 become a reality to an extent I would manageable levels unless we address and the whole of Europe are much zation and reconstruction, efforts that Africa is making progress, but better leaders not have imagined then. In 2015, Ger- its root causes – most importantly by better off today. The Minsk process are essential to pave the way towards with more political will are needed to meet many received over one million refu- defusing the violent conflicts and crises has delivered a marked reduction in longer-term peace in conflict areas. the challenges that lie ahead, says former UN gees fleeing war and violence in Syria, that have been destabilizing Europe’s violence and casualties. A case in point is Iraq, where we are Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Iraq, Afghanistan and other conflicts. southern and eastern neighborhood. Without any doubt, there is still a lot helping to quickly rebuild public ser- We have lived up to our responsibil- These are trying times for the of work ahead of us: Frequent viola- vices and critical infrastructure in areas ity, offering protection to hundreds European Union. Striking a balance tions of the ceasefire must stop. Every liberated from ISIS. We are convinced Unwelcome guests 34 of thousands of refugees. And that is that these measures are essential in Are some of Europe’s new refugees terrorists? something we can be proud of. order to restore the confidence of the There has been scant evidence that large num- At the same time, it is obvious that Iraqi people in their public institutions. bers of IS supporters have come to Europe as we will have to find ways to reduce Germany’s goals In Tikrit, this stabilization operation refugees, writes Peter R. Neumann, but the the number of refugees coming to has allowed more than 150,000 inter- group is taking advantage of the situation. Germany and Europe, as the current for its OSCE Chairmanship: nally displaced persons to return to trajectory is clearly unsustainable. But renew dialogue, rebuild trust their homes, and we are preparing Prevent, not prosecute 35 just sealing off our borders will not to deliver the same support in Sinjar, help, nor will defining an upper limit Ramadi and elsewhere. Young people who feel disenfranchised and on the number of refugees that we will and restore security. Relying on diplomacy, crisis preven- betrayed by society are more likely to join take on board. tion and stabilization does not rule out IS. But steps can be taken: We must create Instead we need a strong and decisive military engagement if and where it is a opportunities, promote engagement and Europe. Focusing on national solutions between the common European inter- shot that is fired is still one too many. necessary component of a peace effort. condemn any disrespect for the rule of law, to this global challenge might seem est in maintaining an effective and At the same time, a constitutional We all know that a group like ISIS, says Elmar Thevessen. tempting, yet it is nothing but an illu- humane refugee policy on the one hand reform for decentralization in Ukraine which is not interested in negotiated sion. And more than that: terminating and the need to build and maintain and the elaboration of a special status solutions or peace accords, will not the principle of European solidarity political majorities in member states law for certain areas in eastern Ukraine be defeated without military means. puts the European idea as a whole will remain a key challenge. remain decisive for a peaceful settle- Germany has decided to contribute at risk. On the international stage, Germany ment of the conflict. reconnaissance assets, logistical sup- In view of a divided Europe, right- has stepped up its efforts to contribute Russia’s annexation of Crimea and port and protection to the fight against wing populism is on the rise again. to political and diplomatic solutions. its intervention in Ukraine have stirred ISIS, as well as providing training Freedom of movement within the This is more often than not a pains- many concerns and fears, especially and equipment to the Kurdish Pesh- Schengen area – a major achieve- taking process, requiring persistence among our Eastern European NATO merga, who are fighting ISIS on the ment of our integration process – is and patience, but we have recently allies. That is why Germany has politi- ground. Germany is also contributing, in danger. made important progress. The nuclear cally supported and militarily contrib- alongside its NATO allies and other We cannot allow ourselves to stand accord with Iran shows that it was uted to the alliance’s reassurance and partners, to international missions in on the sideline of this conflict. We possible to negotiate a solution for a adaptation measures. Afghanistan, Sudan and Mali. have built this continent for over half a proliferation crisis that had an imme- At the same time we need to comple- In sum, Germany’s international century; we have put enormous efforts, diate potential to become a hot war. ment reassurance with a reinvigoration responsibility has many facets – power and strength into achieving a And it may yet turn out to be a crucial of our dialogue with Russia: I am domestically, on the European level truly united Europe. Together we have milestone on the way to resolving other speaking of a dialogue that should and with regard to global peace efforts. managed to overcome huge challenges violent conflicts in the region. identify areas of common interest but We must use the full spectrum of our in the past and present. And yet again, In the case of Syria, we have man- also clearly spell out where we have foreign policy and security toolbox in we are facing truly historic tasks: to aged for the first time to bring to the sharp differences. The core principles an effective and coherent way, from

offer shelter to the truly needy, to inte- negotiating table all the crucial inter- of European security, as enshrined in conflict prevention to post-conflict sta- grate men, women and children into national and regional actors needed for the Helsinki Final Act and the Paris bilization. The political processes to our societies, but also to reduce and a political solution. More importantly, Charter, are not up for negotiation. solve conflicts and crises will always

control the steady influx of migrants these actors have agreed on a road map Reaffirming them is exactly what Ger- be at center stage, involving persistent to Europe. for a political solution – including a many will strive for during our OSCE efforts and patience. The conclusion of However difficult this might seem, it ceasefire and the outlines of a transi- Chairmanship. Our guiding motives the nuclear agreement with Iran and also holds a good chance for success: tion process – which was endorsed by for this chairmanship are renewing the beginning of its implementation is We have already taken steps towards a resolution of the Security Council. dialogue, rebuilding trust and restor- a heartening example that such efforts The Atlantic Times 2000 Suite 335 M Street NW, Washington, DC, 20036 Washington, a European solution, the European There is still a very long way to go, and ing security. can indeed be successful. n 2 February 2016 February 2016 3

The Security Times • Strategy The Security Times • Strategy

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna on Jun. 30, 2015.

The share of good news amid a world in turmoil: In Vienna, the P5+1 and Iran reached an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program; Foreign Ministers (from left) John Kerry (US), Philip Hammond (UK), Sergey Lavrov (Russia), Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Germany), Laurent Fabius (France), Wang Yi (China), Federica Mogherini (EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs) and Javad Zarif (Iran) on Jul. 14, 2015. And in Paris, climate talks led to a path- breaking agreement that many people had demanded – including the demonstrators in polar bear costumes (below).

PICTURE ALLIANCE/HERBERT NEUBAUER The dawn of a more unstable era The world in 2016: Boundless crises, reckless spoilers, helpless guardians – and a few bright spots | By Wolfgang Ischinger PICTURE ALLIANCE/GEORG HOCHMUT he world, especially as far-reaching implications. First, lence beyond Syria. But in fact, tlement of the Ukraine conflict eonardo DiCaprio’s fron- crisis to find its future shape, seen from the West, may steered by the diplomacy of their the exact opposite happened: the envisaged a year ago has not tiersman Hugh Glass is viable national borders and an indeed be in its worst French hosts, the climate talks hands-off approach created the materialized. And in the Levant, not the only revenant in enlightened attitude to religious shape since the end of in Paris led to an agreement that conditions both for a bloody and Putin has demonstrated his deter- 2016. Geopolitics and Doing the possible diversity. The explosive mix of theT Cold War. Overwhelmed, many see as path-breaking and increasingly complex civil war, mination to play a role in any realpolitikL are back; spheres of elite failure, terrorism and mass sometimes helpless guardians are that could prevent the most cata- and for today’s regional confla- post-Assad Syrian arrangement, interest and influence are once migration defies military solu- faced with boundless crises and strophic consequences of man- gration, including Russia’s mili- without much regard for the more contested by the great In today’s woebegone state of the world, de-escalatory diplomacy tions. empowered, reckless spoilers. made climate change. Second, the tary intervention. continuing plight of the Syrian powers; nationalism is again rear- and compartmentalized cooperation are the order of the day | By Theo Sommer The same goes for many The conflicts and crises that agreement on the Iranian nuclear Europe has thus far failed to population. The good news is ing its ugly head; globalization regional flashpoints in Asia, Africa most preoccupy the world tran- program reached by the P5+1 build a credible common foreign that Russia played a constructive seems to be backpedaling; con- said World Economic Forum things done constructively through right wing continues to denigrate the party’s leading position – a and Latin America. However, scend and throw into question and Iran prevents both an Iran and security policy – as envisaged role in the nuclear negotiations cepts like deterrence and contain- founder Klaus Schwab last month rational dialogue and pragmatic the European idea. Their aim: not highly risky experiment. While the smoldering conflict between borders and boundaries to a stun- armed with nuclear weapons and by the Treaty of Lisbon – with with Iran, and will hopefully do ment are making a comeback; in Davos. Global business lead- compromise. The question of who only exodus from the Brussels we cannot expect Beijing to mol- India and Pakistan, the Chinese- ning degree. Chief among these is military action against its nuclear institutional arrangements for so again as the Vienna talks on thoughts of war, even nuclear ers are worried that nations are will stand on the steps of the US community but excitus EU. lify its aggressive policies in the Chinese tug-of-war over Taiwan, the war in Syria (and Iraq) with its facilities. Either one of these two decisive crisis management action. Syria resume. war, weigh anew on the minds of drifting apart rather than growing Capitol to deliver his or her inau- Russia, too, is a country in tran- South China and East China Seas, the dangerous Korean tinderbox manifold consequences and impli- scenarios could have destabilized Instead, Brussels continues to be In some of today’s key conflicts, global leaders. together. gural address on Jan. 20, 2016, sition. The question is whether the its “One Belt, One Road” is likely and steadily increasing tensions cations – from Europe’s struggle the Middle East in ways that ALAIN PICTURE ALLIANCE/ABACA/APAYDIN handicapped by multiple major reckless spoilers have filled the To describe the lamentable state Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman agitates both friend and foe. A country’s dire economic freefall to remain a grandiose scheme with between China and the US are to find a common solution to the would make today’s turmoil look in the fall of 2015. For several the border-free Schengen area is problems: shaky agreement on power vacuums resulting from of the present-day world one can of the Munich Security Confer- Trump presidency is a particularly will make Putin more amenable little substance. cause for global concern. influx of refugees to the - over tame in comparison. years, indeed, European publics under threat. Furthermore, bor- sanctions against Russia; continu- the reluctance or withdrawal of hardly do better than to quote ence, deems our global security worrisome prospect for International politics has become Looking at the world as it all dissolution of political order But as Richard Haass has and leaders were willing to over- ders changed by force as well as ing question marks surrounding actual or potential guardians. In William Butler Yeats’ 1919 poem situation “the most dangerous America’s allies. Their a “G-zero world” with no shared is, not as we wish it were, one throughout the Middle East. stressed, with a nod to Woody look the potential domestic conse- border disputes – from Ukraine Greece and the euro; the threat Afghanistan, the resurgence of “The Second Coming”: since the end of the Cold War.” plea is like that of New Theo Sommer is values, standards or priorities (Ian cannot help but feel that our lead- For reasons both structural – a Allen: “If showing up is 80 per- quences of turmoil in their eastern to artificial islands in the South of a “Brexit” and of re-forti- the Taliban undermines progress Former US Secretary of Defense York Times columnist the executive editor Bremmer). Global hegemony is ers should welcome another rev- of The Security Times more complicated international cent of life, at least 80 percent of and southern neighborhoods. China Sea – contribute to a more fied borders; and perhaps most made over more than a decade, “Things fall apart; the center William Perry reasons that the David Brooks: “Stay and The Atlantic Times no longer possible. While Wash- enant: realpolitik. In other words, system – and self-inflicted – an foreign policy is following up.” Today’s Middle East exempli- dangerous security environment. importantly, a resurgence of illib- prompting Western governments cannot hold; danger of a nuclear confrontation sane America, please!” and former editor ington will remain preeminent for secure your defenses but do not initial neglect of emerging crises Whether both agreements will be fies the boundlessness of conflict. Claims of a US retreat may be eral right-wing nationalism and to rethink their plans for with- Mere anarchy is loosed upon is higher today than at any time At the same time, the of the German weekly decades, it will no longer predomi- eschew dialogue; contain where – the traditional guardians of a The war in Syria has exaggerated. Nonetheless, in at populism. As Anne Applebaum drawal or reduction. In coun- the world, since the termination of the East- trials and tribulations Die Zeit. nate. Nor can any other nation necessary and cooperate where liberal international order seem to become an unconfined least two of the defining conflicts noted: “If Europe itself becomes tries such as Libya, Mali and The blood-dimmed tide is West conflict. of the refugee crisis ARCHIVE don the cap of world policeman. possible; bear in mind humani- believe less and less in their ability Wolfgang Ischinger, regional crisis. In the of our time – Ukraine and Syria – dysfunctional, then Europe will Yemen, groups of local strongmen loosed, and everywhere The Science and Security Board strike at the heart of The Middle East is experiencing tarian principles, but not as the to shape events. They are faced a former German ambassador medium term, it may the US has played a less prominent be incapable of helping anyone and Islamist extremists, many of The ceremony of innocence is of the Bulletin of the Atomic Sci- the European project. For the first to seek the cooperation of the an extraordinary level of violent sole benchmark for securing your with a growing number of spoil- to the United Kingdom well put into question role than in previous conflicts. else.” And Europe would have whom have pledged allegiance to drowned. entists finds the state of the world time in half a century, one can no West, or whether dwindling GDP turmoil. The state system is fraying interests; avoid bluster and blame; ers – some simply emboldened, and the United States, - is Chairman of the existing state borders The key diplomatic format to no meaningful global role in the IS, have blocked progress towards The best lack all conviction, “so threatening that the minute longer preclude that the EU, bat will incite him to look for foreign in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. tolerate differences among nations others even reckless – who are Munich Security Conference. throughout the Middle resolve the Ukraine crisis – the so- future. peace or, worse, unleashed more while the worst hand of the Doomsday Clock must tered by economic malaise, the scapegoats. His Syrian interven- Except in Tunisia, the Arab Spring while simultaneously building on further destabilizing fragmenting East. Moreover, the called Normandy Group – does China is beginning to be more strife. Are full of passionate intensity.” remain at three minutes to mid- migrant emergency and terrorism, tion has returned the Kremlin has ended in dictatorial winter. common interests. orders. While the risk of major MSC war in Syria has been not include the US. In any major involved in global issues, but still In 2016 we are likely to witness night, the closest it has been to will collapse and splinter. The leader to the top table of world The self-proclaimed Islamic State Our diplomats are beginning interstate war may still be remote, the main driver of the European crisis since the end of has a long way to go. Rather than a period of growing risks, mili- These lines were written in the catastrophe since the early days crisis has revealed fundamental politics; that must soothe his ego. (IS) is imposing its writ on Meso- to use a new term for this: “com- for the first time since the end of seen as truly historical achieve- global refugee crisis, making 2015 WWII, such an absence would becoming a “responsible stake- tary confrontation, uncertainty wake of World War I, yet there is of above-ground hydrogen bomb differences between the member It is obvious, however, that at best potamia. Saudi Arabia and Iran are partmentalized cooperation.” It is the Cold War the escalation of ments depends on their imple- the year with the most refugees have been unthinkable. And in holder” in the liberal interna- and fundamental transformation no better description of today’s testing.” states about the nature, purpose he can be a spoiler, not a shaper – engaged in intense proxy warfare. a method for dealing with friends violence between major powers mentation and the momentum since the end of World War II. Syria, the US and its European tional order, Beijing is more likely – the dawn of a more unstable woebegone state of the world. Two facts compound the prob- and destination of their union. unless he opts for accommodation The conflict between Israelis and as well as rivals and adversar- cannot be dismissed as an unre- they provide. Yet as conflicts become bound- allies stopped short of interven- to focus on parallel structures of international era. The challenge Even the title – “The Second lems emanating from this porten- A trend toward renationaliza- and conciliation. Palestinians, although no longer ies: disagree where your interests alistic nightmare. “In many regions war and less and the limiting effect of ing against the regime although international governance, which to leaders and their advisors is Coming” – fits our era of - rev tous development. First: All major tion threatens to tear the EU into China is also in the throes of central to the region, continues diverge, but join hands wherever To be sure, the past year has terror prevail. States disintegrate. national boundaries further Assad had crossed Obama’s “red it can shape according to its own an urgent one: how to build – or enants. powers and power groupings are several blocs. In Eastern Europe, fundamental change. Growth has to fester; another intifada seems they coincide; turn red-hot con- seen its share of good news. The For many years we have read decreases, borders are making a line” – further underlining that preferences. rebuild – more resilient regional Crises have become the new in a state of transition. Second: The a lack of solidarity and, as in dropped from 10 percent annually more likely than any diplomatic flicts into frozen ones rather than part of the global population about this. But we had not yet comeback. Since the fall of the the US has only a small dog in Russia under Vladimir Putin and global orders, and how to normal. “We live in a time of time is out of joint, but there is no Hungary and Poland, a proclivity to about 6.8 percent; 4 percent, settlement, two-state or otherwise. bull-headedly pursuing maximum living in extreme poverty has sufficiently understood that what Berlin Wall over 40 countries that fight. Critics of international has been keen to demonstrate its promote and empower the insti- extraordinary change,” US Presi- one to single-handedly set it right. toward illiberalism gnaws at the some experts argue, may be more Afghanistan’s future after ISAF is objectives. Strategic patience is a fallen to 9.6 percent, from 37 per- happens in Aleppo and Mosul worldwide have erected fences action in Syria, including German status as a key global player, but tutional arrangements necessary dent Barack Obama declared in The political system of the US foundations of the European proj- realistic. This “new normal” is parlous at best. virtue, not a vice. Avoiding disas- cent just 25 years ago. Moreover, can affect Essen or Stuttgart. We against more than 60 of their voices, argued in 2011 that an its economy tells a different story. to ensure that the idea of a rules- his last State of the Union address. is polarized and paralyzed to the ect. In Scandinavia, Britain, the forcing the Communist party to The Levant stands before a long ters must be accorded absolute there were at least two diplomatic have to face that now,” German neighbors, with 15 new walls intervention would only fuel the Even after many Normandy based global society will not be “We are living in a world that point of dysfunctionality. Its poli- Netherlands, Belgium, France and reform its economic model while phase of turbulence. It will take priority. De-escalatory diplomacy breakthroughs with potentially Chancellor Angela Merkel said built in 2015 alone. In Europe, conflict and the spread of vio- Group sessions, the durable set- abandoned. n in many ways is falling apart,” ticians have lost the ability to get even Germany, the burgeoning at the same time buttressing decades for the Muslim arc of is the order of the day. n

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The Security Times • Strategy The Security Times • Strategy In a time of secular stagnation A new cold war? Re-balancing in the global economy undermines international stability | By Robin Niblett The next US president must avert one he last twenty years lenges, are not well-positioned to have witnessed a manage the risks that the deceler- he fight against the self-proclaimed While standing firm on American interests remarkable re-balanc- ating global economy generates. Islamic State (IS), al-Qaeda or other such as cyberdefense and opposition to changing ing in the global econ- EU governments are in a desper- jihadist terrorist groups is not going borders by force, the next US president must also Tomy and a commensurate shift ate race to establish processes, to make or break America. When the seek to avert pushing China and Russia into a in international economic and structures and laws to cope with WestT overreacts to their attacks, the jihadists win. more formal alliance. Russia, like the US itself, is political power. Fears that these the unprecedented influx of refu- NEWS IMAGO/KYODO We have too often been played by the terrorists, refurbishing its nuclear arsenal. structural changes could lead to gees from the Middle East and who, like judo fighters, leverage our own strength The worst development would be if the world major interstate conflicts were North and East Africa. They are against us with minimal effort and sustainable once again were to break up into rigid blocs, prevalent at the last two Munich attempting to do so, however, capacity. fortified by a new nuclear arms race. Even if the Security Conferences in 2014 and at a time when levels of trust As tragic as it is, the situation in the Middle ethical calculus is not clean, working with Russia 2015, at the height of the conflict between the East and West, as East is, in the end, a matter for battling local and is essential for global security. In many ways, in eastern Ukraine and as China well as between the northern and regional players to settle. Have we not learned President Putin just wants respect. The US should and Japan engaged in a stand-off southern EU member states, have from 15 years of war since 9/11, only to see the grant that respect with no less illusions than during over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands severely eroded as a result of both rise of IS, that outside intervention is counter- the stable years of détente with the Soviet Union. in the East China Sea. A formal the political battles waged to sta- productive? For the West to remain strong in facing this new outbreak of conflict was averted bilize the eurozone and differing For the first time since the end of the Cold War, competition with the East, the US needs a power- in both cases, even if violence approaches to migration. German two major world powers with distinctly different ful civilizational ally in Europe. Europe today, persists in Ukraine and intra- leadership, which had been grudg- cultural and political orientations – the US and however, is no longer functional as a reliable state violence has proliferated ingly welcomed in 2014, now China – are contending to shape the global order. partner. On the contrary, it is paralyzed by every across the Middle East and North elicits greater ambivalence in IMAGO/RUST By lifting itself out of poverty and rising to the top crisis it faces – from Greek debt to refugees – and Africa. the wake of Chancellor Angela What is the relation between China's economic slowdown and the quarrel over the islands and reefs in the ranks of the world economy, China has enabled is disintegrating before our eyes. South China Sea? China wants to divert public attention from the country's economic turbulence, possibly While steady global growth Merkel’s generous yet unilateral creating greater risks. over the past 20 years drove the decision to welcome refugees and shifts in the relative balance of Germany’s hard-nosed desire to ture goods and services, and high- international economic order the to the vast majority participat- international political power, concentrate the delivery of Rus- end consumer products, from cars US helped build. ing in it. In this context, regional it also limited their disruptive sian gas to Europe via the Baltic to luxury apparel. Another major Further declines or devalua- and international initiatives that effects. In 2016, however, the Sea. terrorist attack or a disorderly tions of trading nations’ curren- would further enlarge the benefits world has embarked upon a new Should the 2015 drop in com- collapse of the EU’s Schengen cies could heighten that sense of of deeper economic integration, phase in its economic transition. modity prices destabilize African area would also have economic frustration, whether with allies from the Trans-Pacific Partnership The global economy appears to governments that had hoped to knock-on effects that could exac- like Japan or competitors like (TPP) to the planned Transatlantic have entered what some have OHDE IMAGO/CHRISTIAN use the resource boom to drive erbate the EU’s internal political China. Whatever the critiques by Trade and Investment Partnership described as a secular stagna- Ongoing military moderniza- budget based on an oil price close to extricate his forces from these manent members of the UN Secu- employment and growth, a much- acrimony. those inside and outside the US (TTIP), remain on track. tion. Now the world could face a tion, physical assertion of Chinese to $50 per barrel, President Vladi- external commitments. But it is rity Council, plus Germany, is feared expansion of sub-Saharan And looming over the EU is about President Obama’s recalci- Today, however, China’s diffi- security downturn as well as an claims to sovereignty over islands mir Putin faces a double challenge. just as likely, if not more so, that having destabilizing effects in the African migration to Europe the upcoming UK referendum trant approach to foreign policy, cult and unpredictable transition economic one. and reefs in the South China Sea, Having presided over lackluster with his back to the wall President current economic environment, could start to materialize this on whether or not to remain a US public opinion is unlikely to from a developing to a middle- Over the past six months, Chi- and the remarkable recent central- economic growth prior at least in the short term. Saudi year, placing even greater stress member of the EU. A majority give its next president much more income economy – mirrored in a nese leaders have struggled to ization of political power in the to the Ukraine crisis, Arabia’s profound dismay over on the EU’s internal decision- vote in favor of a “Brexit” would room to manoeuver. number of other countries find- manage the transition to what they hands of President Xi Jinping may he must now assess the deal has intensified as the fall making and leaving even less time have a severe impact on EU cohe- The shift from west to east in the ing the struggle even harder, e.g. have termed the “new normal.” help China’s leadership confront whether he can con- Robin Niblett in oil prices forces King Salman to confront the continuing chaos sion at a time of strengthening global economy’s center of gravity, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa

has been director PRESS IMAGO/ZUMA Wild gyrations in the Chinese as well as divert public attention tinue to afford military of Chatham House, to cut subsidies and social pay- in Syria and Libya. populist parties across Europe, a which began twenty-five years ago, – could lead to more of a zero-sum stock market may affect only a from its economic turbulence. engagements in Syria the British foreign affairs ments that have traditionally Although the EU is still a rela- metastasizing Islamic State and a reflected a natural re-balancing of environment in which borders other emerging countries to grow and has become As the de facto leader of the West, the next sliver of the Chinese economy, yet But those same developments and Ukraine, which think tank, since 2007. helped sustain public support for tive pole of stability in an uncer- still unpredictable Russia. the international economy to a harden and domestic regulations an indispensable engine for global prosperity in American president should press for a Europe point to the difficulties the Chi- appear to carry greater risks at for the Russian people the government. As Iran seeks to tain world (hence its status as the The US is thus embarking on more healthy convergence between become more discriminatory to the decades ahead. that, at a minimum, federates fiscal and foreign nese leadership faces in sustaining a time of economic slowdown in have exemplified their CHATHAM HOUSE reclaim its share of the global oil top destination for refugees and its presidential election year with the size of a country’s population outsiders. Policy makers would The 21st century will only find peace and secu- policies, as well as immigration and energy growth and employment as the China than when the leadership country’s return to market and tensions with Saudi migrants from its neighborhood), international security at the top and its overall GDP. Whatever do well to remember that when rity if America and China work together and do policies – in short, a common Europe that is the export and infrastructure invest- and people could expect uninter- greatness on the world stage. Putin could double down on his Arabia grow, finding a route to its fragile recovery could easily of the agenda and its main ally, worries existed that this re-bal- international economic disloca- not become enemies. To avoid such a historic other pillar of the West. Otherwise, America ment of the past decades slows, rupted growth. Putin must also divvy up a military gambles and behave even peace in Syria and Yemen may be knocked off the rails if the Europe, on the back burner. Wor- ancing would lead to dangerous tion coincides with a major geo- blunder, mutual respect and understanding must will have to rely on a series of nations, each too the construction booms tapers off In Russia, the dramatic collapse shrinking financial pie among more aggressively on the interna- prove even more difficult in 2016 slowdown in emerging economies ryingly, the global economic slow- competition between its winners political transition, as happened be built through a working relationship between small to matter alone, yet each also hobbled by and indebted local governments in oil prices – caused in part by his circle of close political sup- tional stage. than in 2015. were to gouge the profit margins down is likely to heighten many and losers have been overridden in the 1930s, they face a most the next US president and China’s President Xi the straightjacket of being part of a dysfunctional struggle to cope with dwindling the Chinese economic slowdown – porters. One solution in the new Even last year’s nuclear agree- The US and Europe, which still of leading European exporters of Americans’ deep frustrations that by the dominant sense that global- dangerous moment in interna- Jinping. European Union. Nicolas Berggruen sources of revenue. poses its own risks. With the state economic environment would be ment between Iran and the per- face their own economic chal- industrial equipment, infrastruc- they are not benefiting from the ization has offered absolute gains tional relations. n

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1601_6614_DB_ANZ_INNOVATION_290x260.indd 1 01.02.16 08:39 The Security Times • Strategy The Security Times • Strategy

6 February 2016 February 2016 7 The timeThe Security is Times out • Strategy of joint The Security Times • Strategy Ukraine, Iran, Syria: Russia and the West will have to make tough choices, even if national interests collide | By Michael Stürmer

he Cold War is over. The West has thus far That’s the good news remained unified. But for how about a monumen- much longer can this hold? By tal achievement that nature, sanctions are neither Tshould not be forgotten. The peace nor war, but something bad news is that the world is still in between. Moreover, experi- a dangerous place, even more so. ence shows that more often than At a recent conference including not they are subject to the law Russia and the Western powers of unintended consequences, in search of backchannel solu- such as with Japan and Italy in tions, a seasoned US diplomat the 1930s. Russia is looking for stated that over the course of partners all over the world. But his career spanning 50 years, is it in Western interests to spon- disaster has never so close at sor the “strategic partnership” hand. He even mentioned the between Russia and China? As w-word. If this was alarmist, an yet, it is neither strategic nor even more harrowing fact was a partnership, but should the that no one among the partici- West really encourage any sort PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/SERGEY AVERIN pants questioned the validity of of mutual understanding? Monitoring mission: The OSCE special commission confirms weapons withdrawal from the contact line in the Donetsk People’s Republic. so somber a statement. The new Ukraine is a basket case, bal- confrontation calls for an agoniz- ancing on the brink of collapse ing reappraisal and a return to and bankruptcy. As Raymond realpolitik. Aron once observed, a country “The time is out of joint,” as cannot be saved against its will. Letting go Shakespeare’s Prince of Denmark To pin hopes for a global stra- is often quoted these days. Some tegic balance on a player like Even if full implementation of Minsk II seems unlikely, the EU and US should continue security experts allow themselves Ukraine amounts to insouciance, to recall when the Cold War inviting not only misunderstand- pressing all parties to meet its provisions | By Steven Pifer united the two superpowers in ing – “sleepwalkers” was the a cartel of war prevention, as term used in 2014 – but disaster. pproaching its one-year toration of full Ukrainian control Concerning decentralization, Sea Fleet. Moreover, it is proving Absent a more serious effort by should be in a position to say French philosopher-strategist It is high time to forge compro- anniversary, the Feb- over its border with Russia. on Aug. 31, 2015, the Rada a financial burden, and most ana- Moscow to implement the Minsk that it did everything in its power Raymond Aron adroitly observed mises, find face-saving solutions ruary 2015 Minsk II Implementation of Minsk II got (Ukraine’s parliament) passed a lysts believe that Donbass would II provisions, all indicators point to honor the agreement, so that at the time. such as a non-alignment status agreement to end the off to a poor start. Separatist constitutional amendment on first impose an even heavier burden. to the conclusion that Russia is not the blame will rest squarely with Even during the heyday of for Ukraine, put the Crimea dos- Aconflict in eastern Ukraine’s Don- and Russian forces ignored the reading with 265 votes. The vote The Kremlin appears to regard yet prepared to reach a settlement Russia and the separatists. nuclear arms control and détente, sier into deep freeze for a decade bass region is not faring well. All ceasefire and instead launched generated controversy as oppo- Donbass as a means to destabilize of the crisis in eastern Ukraine, at The key to settling the conflict the crisis over intermediate-range or so, hold a referendum and see of its provisions were to have been a major attack at the key rail nents criticized it for rewarding Kiev and to make it more difficult least not on terms that would be continues to lie in Moscow, which nuclear forces was the dominant what happens. The whole of the implemented by Dec. 31, 2015. center in Debaltseve. While the the separatists. The Radical Party, for the central government to considered reasonable for Kiev. has decisive influence on the sepa- conflict between the Soviet Union Balkans, Bismarck once said in a Few were. Yet Minsk II remains line of contact separating the two one of five that constitutes the proceed with needed reforms and The most likely state in which ratists. Western policy should aim and NATO – led by the US – similar context, is not worth the the only settlement arrangement sides subsequently stabilized, the pro-government coalition, left the implementation of the Ukraine- Donbass will remain into the fore- to change the calculation of costs until Mikhail Gorbachev recog- healthy bones of one Pomeranian on offer and continues to com- sides continued to exchange fire. European Union Asso- seeable future is thus a frozen (or and benefits underlying the Krem- nized that the Soviet system was grenadier. mand at least rhetorical support In August 2015 the Ukrainians ciation Agreement. not-so-frozen) conflict, where there lin’s policy toward Ukraine. doomed. To save it, he tacked Confrontation is in the cards, in Kiev and Moscow. For the reported as many as 200 ceasefire Moscow’s apparent is no major fighting yet no complete The West should continue to from a course of confrontation but so is cooperation. It was – foreseeable future, however, it violations per day. Steven Pifer support for ratcheting ceasefire, and where negotiations give Kiev political support and is a senior fellow to one of cooperation. and is – national interest that appears that Donbass is destined Things improved somewhat in at the Brookings Institution down the violence in on implementing Minsk II continue – provided that the government When the endgame began, US made Russia an active member to occupy a place on the list of autumn. The ceasefire took better and a former US ambassador Donbass and for post- yet show scant real progress. That accelerates economic and anti- President Ronald Reagan and of the P5+1 group that secured frozen (or not-so-frozen) conflicts hold in September and the sides to Ukraine. poning local elections would allow the Kremlin to ratchet corruption reforms – additional Secretary of State George Shultz the containment of Iran: Moscow dotting the post-Soviet space. withdrew much of their heavy there, coupled with the up the conflict at a later point if it financial assistance, with the were shrewd enough to avoid had to weigh its interest in non- Following Russia’s military sei- weaponry, though not all fighting PRIVATE appointment of Boris desired to further pressure Kiev. aim of bolstering Ukraine’s resil- triumphalism. The Soviets saving proliferation against the oil glut zure of Crimea, an armed separat- came to end. In October Poro- Gryzlov, a Kremlin The Ukrainian government, ience. Additional military assis- face and preventing collapse were and the fall in oil prices bound ist conflict broke out in eastern shenko, Putin, Merkel and Hol- vote in protest. The amendment insider, as Russia’s point-person while regularly reiterating its desire tance should be provided with overriding features of US diplo- to occur with the lifting of Iran’s Ukraine in April 2014. Moscow lande met in Paris and agreed that must pass on second reading with for the conflict, have led some to to implement Minsk II and restore the objective of driving up the macy at the time, providing a soft sanctions and the added pres- gave the separatists significant local elections in the separatist- a constitutional majority of 300 suggest that Russian policy may be sovereignty over all of Donbass, costs of any renewed offensive IMAGO/LEEMAGE landing for its antagonist of more “The time is out of joint. O cursed spite that ever I was born to set it right” – Hamlet’s complaint after encountering the ghost of his father ence of Iranian oil on the world support: leadership, funding and occupied parts of Donbass should votes. In a new twist, Prime Min- changing. They argue that Kremlin may consider a frozen conflict by separatist and Russian forces. than half a century. sounds very modern (above: chromography, late 19th century). market. heavy weapons as well as politi- be postponed until they could ister Yatsenyuk suggested on Jan. policy has hit a dead end in Don- acceptable for the near to medium The West should make clear to The underlying pattern had Perhaps the situation most cal backing. When the Ukrainian be organized in accordance with 24 that the amendment instead be bass, that Moscow has now turned term. Kiev is not in a position to Moscow that a return to more been, and remained so well into Ukraine made any further coop- lize patriotic sentiment at home East was caused by US actions: national interest. That was true emblematic of the state of the military appeared on the verge of Ukrainian law and under OSCE put to a referendum. its attention to Syria, and that the assume economic responsibility normal relations will depend on the 1990s, a long, carefully nego- eration highly unlikely. Western and turn Russian dreams away “We told you so.” then, and it’s still true now. world is the Syrian drama. Russia retaking the Donbass in August observation, as provided for by Most disturbingly, perhaps, Russian economy is in more dif- for Donbass, which would require the Kremlin changing its policy tiated and well-circumscribed politicians had forgotten Otto from Western-style democracy; A major shift in the global “cor- Mixed signals are coming out is defending its interests on the 2014, regular units of the Russian Minsk II. The separatists, under leaders of the “People’s Repub- ficult straits than anticipated. The significant humanitarian assistance toward Ukraine. In particular, the nuclear peace. Each side of von Bismarck’s time-honored and to intimidate Russia’s imme- relation of forces” – to borrow of Moscow and Western coun- Mediterranean coast. It is doing army intervened. some pressure from Moscow, lics” of Donetsk and Luhansk economy contracted by 4 percent and reconstruction funds to repair EU and US should hold to their this secular confrontation had caution that revisionist history diate vicinity, which he menac- a phrase from Soviet-speak – tries will be faced with tough so “by invitation,” as Russia A ceasefire was hastily brokered agreed to the postponement. have repeatedly stated that they in 2015 and, faced with the low the heavy damage caused by nearly position that sanctions will be been careful to keep its distance is more precise than even a Prus- ingly referred to as the “near took place on Putin’s watch. It choices, beginning with the likes to say. To secure Russia’s in Minsk in September 2014, but Kiev and the separatists have will not accept a restoration of price of oil and Western economic two years of fighting. Some -pri eased only after Minsk II is fully from any potentially entangling sian bureaucrat. abroad.” was built on a steady rise in Minsk II agreement, regarding military base in Tartus, Putin it never seriously took hold. Fight- yet to agree on terms for hold- Ukrainian sovereignty, which is, sanctions, is expected to contract vately question whether Ukraine implemented. As for the separate maneuver, let alone from the It was in October 2014, in a For today’s Russia, in spite the price of oil and resulted in which the Ukrainian side is even must pretend that Assad is a ing continued while discussions ing the elections. The separat- of course, the ultimate objective further in 2016. should seek the return of Donbass issue of Crimea, Kiev has wisely experimental excursion into luxury hotel more than a 1,000 of a never-ending litany of a military modernization that more reluctant – and perhaps legitimate ruler, notwithstand- in the trilateral contact group ists demand that Donbass receive of Minsk II. Kremlin policy may be chang- or just let it go. It is not apparent, said it should be addressed in the uncharted territory, which would meters above the city of Sochi, criticism and complaints, the the West ignored – at its own more impotent and incompetent ing past performance. But to – chaired by the Organization special status before the elections All the agreement’s provisions ing. But it is also possible that however, that letting Donbass go longer term. Western sanctions become rather common in the when members of the Valdai peril. While the “sole – than Russian leaders. “Punish contain militant Islam both at for Security and Cooperation in are held, while the Ukrainian gov- were to have been implemented Moscow has concluded that, would settle matters with Russia, linked to Crimea should continue post-Cold War era. Club, an informal gathering of surviving superpower” Putin” was the knee-jerk reaction home and throughout the Middle Europe (OSCE) and involving ernment demands that the elec- to apply. Germany was the issue that international Russia experts, fell victim to its own by the US administration to the East, Putin must also lend some representatives of the Ukrainian tions should be held first and Above and beyond Ukraine, dominated postwar Europe. Each were greeted by a slogan cap- Historian Michael Stürmer hubris in the Greater formal annexation of Crimea, support to the US-led alliance. government, separatists and Rus- then certified by OSCE to have Russia is not yet prepared the West must take into account side of the conflict denied its turing the new mood in Russia: has been chief correspondent Middle East, Putin’s which Russia maintains was a Once again, the motive is Rus- sian government – made little met democratic standards. In the broader implications of Mos- opponent full control over the “New order or no order.” The of the Berlin-based daily Russia was the ben- secession confirmed by a hasty sia’s national interest. headway. In February 2015, with another possible complication, cow’s use of military force against Die Welt since 1989. to reach a settlement of the crisis divided city of Berlin and, to cite Kremlin, playing the host, was eficiary of the rising referendum. While history is on The Cold War is over, but the a looming possibility of a resump- a separatist leader has said that Ukraine. While the likelihood of the 1945 Potsdam formula, over announcing that Russia was back price of hydrocar- Russia’s side, international law world is, more than ever, a danger- tion of full-scale conflict, German pro-government political parties in eastern Ukraine, at least not on terms Russian military action against “Germany as a whole.” Once in the Great Game, that it wanted bons coupled with the falls more on the side of US and ous and increasingly unpredictable Chancellor Angela Merkel and would not be allowed to compete a NATO member state is low, M. DILGER the German question had been to be respected as a global power enthusiasm of Western EU sanctions. place. As Shakespeare wrote, “’Tis French President François Hol- in the local elections. that would be considered it cannot be entirely discounted. put to rest with the “Two plus second to none, and that Russian US is still the measure of all industrial democracies to invest By now the West, under the an ill wind that blows nobody any lande brokered the Minsk II Furthermore, Ukrainian offi- NATO should take steps to bol- Four” treaty – and the Soviet elites were unwilling to live by things. This was truer during the in Russia. The weakness of state gloss of righteousness and massive good.” When it comes to Russia agreement between Russian Presi- cials argue that the separatists and reasonable for Kiev. ster its conventional forces and Union collapsed, along with oil values other than their own – at 1990s, when Russia embarked and society was conveniently pressure from the US Treasury, and the West, any German gov- dent Vladimir Putin and President Russians have failed to meet key deterrent capabilities in the Baltic prices, wreaking chaos – the whatever the cost. on a stormy voyage towards the ignored. is deeply divided over the future ernment will have to perform a Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine. Minsk II provisions, including the by the end of 2015. In a Dec. at this point in time, no further particularly as Moscow appears to States and Poland. rough balance of the past was In an assertive speech at the distant shores of Western-style The good days are over. West- of the various layers of sanc- balancing act between a resurgent Minsk II provided for a ceasefire withdrawal of foreign forces and 30 phone conversation, Porosh- destabilization is necessary. Poli- use Donbass as leverage to pres- In many quarters of the West gradually replaced by an east- Munich Security Conference in modernity, a market economy ern enthusiasm has all but evapo- tions. Germany is following the Russia and the US tendency to run and withdrawal of heavy weapons military equipment from Ukraine, enko, Putin, Merkel and Hollande tics in Kiev has become more sure Kiev, rather to pursue secur- there is interest in engaging ward expansion of Western insti- 2007, Putin had warned the West and democracy, but has become rated, chiefly due to Russia’s US lead, but grumbling ever more Europe and the Middle East by from the line of contact within full access for OSCE to the Don- agreed to extend the deadline into difficult over the past half-year. ing the territory as part of Russia. Russia, which should certainly be tutions, especially NATO and to avoid stepping too near the less true since the Kosovo War takeover of Crimea and its hybrid loudly and even signing up for a remote control. While the US is two weeks’ time. Other provisions bass, the release of all illegally 2016, but did not fix a specific In addition to the Radical Par- The EU and US should con- a part of the EU and US approach. the European Union. Although grizzly bear’s den. He was now that Russia tried to prevent but war in the Donbass region. second North Stream gas pipeline, still the “indispensable nation” for laid out the terms for a political detained persons and the restora- date. ty’s departure from the pro- tinue pressing all parties to imple- But the West should recognize the NATO-Russia Council and staging, step by step, an exer- was ultimately unable to con- Once again, Russia is “a riddle much to the dismay of eastern and keeping the world in some kind settlement, including the release tion of Ukrainian control over the While Russia moved promptly government coalition, rifts have ment the Minsk II provisions, that the more effectively it bol- its Founding Act were offered as cise in brinksmanship to remind trol. Russia also opposed the ill- wrapped in a mystery inside an southern allies. German indus- of order, Europeans will have to of prisoners, a special status for border. The separatists claim that to annex Crimea in March 2014, reportedly broken out between even if full implementation seems sters Ukraine and demonstrates a consolation prize, just when Americans that Russia had the advised US invasion of Saddam enigma” – as Winston Churchill try and banks are conspicuously embrace a more serious posture Donbass, local elections, consti- Kiev has not yet granted amnesty it has given no indication of simi- Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk while unlikely. That means urging Kiev NATO’s readiness to deter other it was needed most, the con- power of unlimited escalation Hussein’s Iraq, reminding the famously declared. But Churchill averse to the sanctions, complain- in global affairs. The future bodes tutional reform to provide for and has not enacted constitutional lar intentions regarding Donbass. public approval ratings for both to do its share. If, or when, it Russian provocations, the more flict in Kosovo and then, with and could deny the US most or all world ever since that much of added that the only sure guide to ing of US interference in their more trouble – between Washing- the decentralization of authority reforms to provide for decentral- Crimea has historical significance leaders and the government’s per- is concluded that Minsk II has likely it will be that engagement much more urgency, the crisis in of its global ambitions; to mobi- the turmoil across the Middle Russia’s behavior was its own livelihood. ton and Berlin as well. n to local governments and the res- ization. for Moscow and hosts the Black formance have plunged. failed, the Ukrainian government will prove fruitful. n 8 February 2016 9

The Security Times • Strategy The Security Times • Strategy NATO’s next strategic adaptation The alliance must improve military readiness, reinforce its collective defense posture and accelerate decision-making By James Hackett IMAGO/ITAR-TASS PICTURE ALLIANCE/AP PHOTO BIELECKI PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/MARCIN

he use of military force from significant technical and phase of strategic adaptation for Jump in Poland in June and Trident intended to aid rapid deployment Europe (SACEUR) said that “our its budget and there are propos- ing future defense plans may be are directly affected by instabil- and facilities, such as NATO Force which has the potential to affect More crises in more places: With to redraw national financial investment. And these NATO. It saw member states agree Juncture in October and Novem- of NATO forces. force level in Europe now is not als to acquire Patriot air defense challenging. In 22 of Europe’s 26 ity in the Middle East and North Integration Units (NFIU), to be deployment decisions. an assertive Moscow, IS and boundaries on Europe’s capabilities are being used. In Syria on a new Readiness Action Plan ber, which tested rapid deployment In particular, NATO is trying adequate to the larger Russian systems, AGM-158 air-launched NATO states, the average share of Africa, resulting in an increased a tripwire for triggering NATO But in the Eastern European vulnerabilities on its southern and borders was a stark Russia has recently demonstrated (RAP) to reassure NATO’s eastern capacity and interoperability. Tri- to enhance the NATO Response task that we see,” though he cruise missiles and a range of GDP spent on defense in 2015 was flow of refugees. In response, Italy involvement in the event of an context, the assumption remains eastern flanks, NATO is improving reminderT to NATO that relations its advanced guided weapons, members regarding solidarity and dent Juncture was NATO’s largest Force (NRF), increasing it from acknowledged that “our current maritime systems that include 1.1 percent. Figures provided in the allocated significant military assets attack, while some allies in the East that after a decision to deploy, its military readiness, reinforcing its collective defense posture and with Russia could deteriorate as launched from both air and sea, the collective defense commitment, exercise in over a decade, but was 13,000 to 40,000 troops. NATO permanent force structure” is new submarines, possibly with IISS Military Balance 2016 indicate to its Operation Mare Nostrum are calling for a more permanent NATO is indeed rapidly able to accelerating decision-making. well as develop. The alliance began and continues to mount large-scale and adapt NATO’s forces to better still relatively modest compared to has also set up a Very High Readi- unlikely to change. As such, the the capability of carrying cruise that if all of Europe’s NATO states before it was replaced by the EU’s NATO presence in their territories. reinforce its allies. In the past few Above: the results of a bombing to craft a response to Moscow’s military exercises with tens of thou- respond not just to the renewed some of Russia’s exercises. ness Joint Task Force (VJTF) to US is relying on pre-positioning missiles as well. Though the had met the 2 percent target, spend- Operation Triton in 2014. Furthermore, although the RAP years, Russia has deployed capa- attack by Russian Sukhoi Su-30 aggression at its 2014 Summit, and sands of troops. challenge from Moscow, but also The other key strand in NATO’s operate as the spearhead of the equipment: a heavy brigade set of change in government late in ing as a whole would have risen by In 2015 France suffered two has addressed NATO decision- bilities in its Western Military Dis- aircraft in Damascus, Jan. 31, 2016; the credibility of this response will An assertive Moscow, however, to instability in Europe’s south and response is “adaptation.” On Sep. NRF. The VJTF is scheduled to army equipment (the European the year has raised questions nearly 45 percent. Allocations have major terrorist attacks and as a making structures – long seen as trict, including the movement of and French soldiers during a NATO be measured at NATO’s Warsaw is not the only challenge confront- southeast. There was an be deployable in 2016; the concept Activity Set) has been distributed concerning the details of some increased in Northern and Eastern result significantly boosted defense a possible hindrance to potential Iskander missiles into Kaliningrad, exercise in Poland, May 29, 2015. Summit this July. ing NATO. The actions of the accompanying ambition, was tested during the Noble Jump to maintenance bases in Esto- of these plans, the upward tra- European member states most con- outlays. While it has taken an active rapid reaction – and SACEUR has the Bastion coastal defense mis- It was no surprise that Russia’s self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) for those then spending James Hackett and Trident Juncture exercises in nia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, jectory is clear. In Norway – cerned about Russia’s actions, but role in NATO’s assurance mea- been given the authority to prepare sile system and advanced combat we have to do both at the same actions in 2014 – annexing Crimea along with the continuing fragility under 2 percent of GDP is editor of The Military Balance 2015. However, one lesson learned Romania and Bulgaria – all due already one of the few states to among some Southern European sures, France’s principal military NRF troops for deployment up aircraft and air-defense systems. time.” Progress has been rapid and supporting separatist forces in and failure of states on Europe’s on defense, to “aim to and Senior Fellow for Defence was that in peacetime – which to be operational in 2016 – and have increased spending since NATO states, in particular those focus is now on domestic secu- to the point of issuing an activa- These deployments could impede towards meeting the goals agreed eastern Ukraine – caused consider- southern and southeastern periph- move towards the 2 per- and Military Analysis might well be the condition in is ready to be drawn on by US 2008 – the government has hit hardest by the effects of the rity and tackling IS, as well as tion command, the type of crisis access to the region and constrain in Wales, but with challenges only at the International Institute able concern in NATO capitals, ery have had growing impact at cent guideline within a for Strategic Studies. which the VJTF is deployed – forces rotating through these proposed a 9.8 percent real- financial crisis, the economic situ- on its existing commitments in states may face could complicate freedom of action in the Baltic Sea. multiplying, the process of change particularly in its eastern member home – notably as a cause of the decade,” i.e. by 2024. bureaucratic measures can cause countries on exercises. Sepa- term defense budget increase ation will complicate attempts to Africa. These examples indicate the decision-making. For instance, Anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) for NATO is likely to be a more states. As leaders agreed in the 2015 refugee crisis – and have Since 2014 NATO’s IISS the movement of munitions, weap- rately, the US has been working for 2016. meet the target of 2 percent. remaining importance of develop- regional states may face non-mil- had been previously mentioned, fundamental and time-consuming Wales Declaration at the end of the reminded Europe’s defense plan- exercise activity has ons and equipment across Euro- to establish two Aegis Ashore Questions have been raised Furthermore, while responses to ing a cohesive perception of Euro- itary or “hybrid” threats as well mainly in the context of the Asia- exercise than observers initially 2014 Summit, “Russia’s aggressive ners of the complex security chal- developed both in frequency and 1, 2015, the first NATO Force Inte- pean borders to take upwards of sites in Poland and Romania as over Finland and Sweden’s rela- Russia’s actions have given NATO pean security concerns in order to as military challenges, and there Pacific; now it concerns NATO in realized. While the Wales Summit actions against Ukraine have fun- lenges they face. scope, in line with the “assurance” gration Units (NFIUs) were inaugu- 14–30 days. part of NATO’s Ballistic Missile tionships with NATO. Increased renewed purpose – only a few years develop and maintain a system of remains debate on which threats Europe. ushered in a phase of strategic damentally challenged our vision With vulnerabilities on its south- side of the RAP. Of the roughly rated in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Member state forces are also Defense. cooperation is the likely trajec- after its post-Afghanistan relevance unified response. and actions, short of military NATO Secretary General Jens adaptation for NATO, there will of a Europe whole, free, and at ern and its eastern flank clearly on 270 exercises planned for 2015, Lithuania, Poland and Romania. changing. US European Com- In the three Baltic States, Lith- tory, but both are examining was called into question – member The military assurance and adap- attack, should invoke an Article Stoltenberg said in January 2016 be pressure in Warsaw to continue peace.” display, NATO is trying to improve approximately half took place in They are expected to be fully opera- mand, its leaders acknowledge, uania reintroduced conscription their capabilities and plan to states must now reckon with more tation measures agreed in Wales are 5 response. With deployment of that “NATO does not have the this process, and to decide how The capabilities Russia has its military readiness, reinforce its NATO’s eastern territories. Most tional in advance of the Warsaw has been focused since 2002 on in 2015. All are procuring artil- bolster bilateral cooperation. crises in more places, and these important capability developments, the NRF (and VJTF) still subject luxury of choosing between either and in which ways NATO must recently employed highlight that collective defense posture and speed significant were those exercises Summit. Others are planned for counterinsurgency training for lery, armored vehicles as well However, maintaining the crises may not resonate to the same but more remains to be done. As to North Atlantic Council (NAC) responding to challenges stem- further transform itself to address despite budgetary concerns, Rus- up alliance decision-making. The designed to test new structures Hungary and Slovakia. Numbering other nations. In October 2015, as anti-armor and air defense common purpose shown by degree in all countries. For exam- an example, some observers may approval, adversaries could create ming from the south or the chal- the range of security threats facing sia’s armed forces have benefited Wales Summit ushered in another under the RAP, such as Noble about 40-50 personnel, these are the Supreme Allied Commander systems. Poland is also boosting NATO since 2014 and resourc- ple, many southern member states consider recently established forces or exploit seams between allies, lenges stemming from the east, the alliance. n

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The Security Times • Strategy The Security Times • Strategy Polar opposites? Managing NATO and Russia. the confrontation Towards a new equilibrium between NATO and Russia By Łukasz Kulesa

ince the Russian annexa- on deterrence and establish clear managing the NATO-Russian that nuclear Russia’s Syria gambit tion of Crimea, and quite “red lines” against Moscow’s confrontation at lower politi- weapons unexpectedly for Western adventurism. If a credible NATO cal and financial costs, and are already a Putin’s overriding goal in the Levant is not defeating terrorism, audiences, pictures of mili- military presence in border areas with a reduced chance of a background Stary hardware and troops exercis- can be established through military crisis or escalation. The element of the but elevating Russia’s place in the world order ing in Central Europe have begun deployments and exercises, so the aim should be to establish a new current crisis. to make regular appearances in argument runs, Russia would be military equilibrium, which is Russian nuclear By Dmitri Trenin the evening news. On their own deterred from initiating aggressive understood as a situation where saber-rattling has TV screens, Russian viewers have actions against the area protected each side avoids introducing prompted calls for seen an intensification of hos- by NATO. military measures that can be NATO to re-emphasize tile, anti-NATO propaganda and For its part, Moscow seems interpreted by the other side as tionship, its own reliance on nuclear even more images of mass drills happy to perpetuate a confron- provocative or escalatory, but is both sides deterrence. and parades of modern Russian tational mode of relations with satisfied that its military posture must signal However, the absence of weaponry. And the escalation the alliance and to use NATO’s is adequately robust to deter an their willingness to restraint could have dire effects. of tensions has found physical increased military activity as a armed attack or an attempt at decrease tensions. a confidence- Many in NATO would see certain expression as well; there has been pretext for more military spend- military coercion. For Russia, that could include building measure, Moscow could Russian actions – such as the a notable increase in dangerous ing and for beefing up its own Initial plans should avoid seek- refraining from the deployment voluntarily decide to reduce the deployment of nuclear weapons encounters between the Russian forces; the Russian Ministry of ing a grand bargain between of major new units and the estab- frequency and size of such exer- in Crimea, their redeployment to military and those of NATO Defense recently announced that Russia and NATO or far-reach- lishment of new military bases cises. Kaliningrad or withdrawal from members. In November 2015, three new armored divisions will ing arms control agreements, but in the border areas – including Third, NATO and Russia the Intermediate-range Nuclear the Turkish Air Force shot down be created in its western region rather focus on relatively simple Crimea – and abstaining from the should resume substantive dia- Forces Treaty – as a serious esca- a Russian Su-24 bomber, killing “in response” to NATO’s actions. confidence-building mechanisms addition of more military forces logue on their military doctrines lation of the crisis, which would one of its crew members. and adjustments in Belarus. In response, NATO and postures. Russia has concerns increase pressure on NATO to In the coming months an even to deployment and should agree in Warsaw to keep about the “aggressive” scenarios beef up its nuclear posture, lead- more dangerous military reality policy. its “persistent” presence in the of NATO exercises in Central and ing to a possible deployment of may emerge on both sides of the Łukasz Kulesa The key to establish- Baltic States and Poland limited Eastern Europe and the purpose nuclear weapons closer to Russia. NATO-Russia border, from the is research director ing a sustainable equi- and within the confines of -pre of developing a territorial missile Taken together, the imple- at the European Leadership High North to the Black Sea. Network, London. librium lies in intro- vious pledges of no permanent defense in Romania and Poland. mentation of the steps suggested It could include the deployment ducing restraint con- stationing of “substantial combat In NATO, many experts worry above can form a basis for sta- of additional military forces and cerning deployments forces” in the East. about the threat of hybrid warfare bilizing the relationship between

new categories of weapons into ELN of conventional mili- Second, we need more warning against the Baltic States and about Russia and NATO in a state of the area – along with nuclear tary forces by Russia of military exercises, particularly Moscow’s apparent readiness to manageable confrontation and warheads – and even more fre- It is high time to chart a way and NATO in the border areas. those held in the border regions. use its nuclear weapons at an minimize the chances of the rela- quent exercises. Another inci- out of the current cycle of mili- In the run-up to the Warsaw Similar to the NATO practice of early phase of a crisis, in line with tionship sliding deeper into hos- dent would increase chances of tary actions and counteractions. Summit in July 2016, it is under- publishing an advance exercise its concept of a “de-escalatory tility. While still a far cry from NATO-Russian tensions spiraling Unfortunately, pushing a “reset” standable that the question of schedule, a list of major Russian nuclear strike.” European secu- the lofty visions of a NATO-Rus- into a graver crisis. button and simply returning to possibly permanent deployments exercises planned for 2016 could rity will be served well if these sian partnership based on mutual NATO’s response to the crisis a pre-2014 state of relations of NATO forces in Central and be made available by the Russian concerns are openly discussed by respect, the most likely alterna- has thus far focused on strength- between NATO and Russia is Eastern Europe attracts most of Ministry of Defense. One particu- experts from both sides, with the tive to managed confrontation ening its collective defense not an option. It must be assumed the attention. lar source of NATO anxiety are inclusion of the military estab- is an endless crisis, peppered capabilities. A number of allies that the relationship will continue However, it would be a mistake Russian “snap exercises,” which lishment. with the occasional outburst of have argued that, given Russia’s to be adversarial and a return to to call on NATO to show restraint often involve the sudden mobi- Finally, both sides should refrain military threats and dangerous aggression against Ukraine and business as usual is impossible. while turning a blind eye to Rus- lization of substantial military from increasing the role of nuclear incidents. Such is a future that its assertive behavior elsewhere, Our efforts should focus on sian military activities. In order to forces and their deployment close weapons as more central tools for – hopefully – no one in Europe NATO must update its thinking establishing a new set of rules for stabilize the Russian-NATO rela- to NATO-protected territory. As confrontation. It can be argued wants. n

IMAGO/ITAR-TASS Vladimir Putin's goal: changing the world order, and elevating Russia’s position within it.

our-plus months into ists bombed a Russian passen- equal great powers, with Russia as Within a few months after the Middle East is not only a grave- regime. The Kremlin leader was Russia’s military opera- ger plane over Sinai, causing 224 a permanent member of the group. fact, Russia has become an indis- yard of historical empires; more unpleasantly surprised by Turk- tions in Syria, it is time to deaths; and on New Year’s Eve In Putin’s view such an arrange- pensable power in matters of war recently it has been littered with ish President Tayyip Erdogan, a look at the results it has an IS-affiliated group attacked ment cannot simply be granted, or and peace in Syria. Putin’s offer to the debris of numerous peace longtime partner who ordered the producedF thus far, the objectives Russian servicemen on a tour of even amicably agreed. One must Washington, first made in 2013, efforts. On the political front, downing of a Russian warplane Bavarian Ministry of Moscow pursues and the risks the ancient fortress in Dagestan. to engineer a peace Russia faces huge difficulties with near the Turkish-Syrian border. Economic A airs and Media, that are involved. Yet it is not a given that if Russia settlement in Syria the notoriously fractured Syrian The two men killed in the incident Energy and Technology The Kremlin’s rationale for had not intervened in Syria, its brokered by Russia opposition, much of which is remain the only Russian military going in was rather straight- citizens would have been spared. and the US – a sort of hostile to Moscow – as a result of casualties of the Syria campaign. forward. No government takes Terrorism has been a threat to Dmitri Trenin is director “Dayton-à-deux” for recent Russian bombardments – The Russo-Turkish relationship, lightly the decision to put military Russians for over two decades, of the Carnegie Moscow Center. the Middle East – has and overly dependent on outside strategically important and eco- forces in harm’s way. Those who but Moscow has only now gone finally found takers in sponsors. Nor is Russia having nomically productive, has suf- argue that President Vladimir abroad to address the problem the Obama adminis- a particularly easy time with its fered a serious blow. Moscow

Putin went into Syria to replace militarily at its source. CARNEGIE.RU tration. If successful, nominal ally, Bashar al-Assad. has also had to downplay the on Russian TV screens the picture Yet, Putin’s overriding goal in the military-diplomatic Having saved his regime with its image of Russia siding with the of a stalemate in Donbass with the Syrian war is not Syria, or even fight for it, sometimes literally so. gambit in Syria would give the airstrikes, Moscow feels posi- Shia regimes in Tehran, Baghdad one of Russian Air Force prow- defeating terrorism, but changing By inserting the Russian military Kremlin what it craves most in tioned to demand more flexibility and Damascus in a region bitterly ess in the skies over Syria should the world order, and elevating into the Syrian conflict, Putin has the international arena: America’s from Damascus, but Assad is divided between the minority Shia know better. The first thought Russia’s position within it. The sought to impose Russia on the recognition of Russia’s role as not always amenable, and often and the majority Sunni sects. The average Russians had upon hear- Russian leader had consistently United States as a major indepen- a great power in the post-Cold requires Putin to perform heavy combined effect of these factors ing of their country’s involvement aimed at a sustainable arrange- dent party in the fight against IS, War world. lifting to get what he wants. places huge demands on Russian in Syria was “Afghanistan.” Such ment in which all major global and to bolster Russia’s credentials This result is of course any- Putin has also faced difficulties diplomacy. a move is far less likely to win security decisions would be made as a co-chair of the Vienna peace thing but assured, and the gambit from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who The Russian military interven- political capital than to spend it. by a committee of more or less co- process. itself is not without risks. The are eager for the end of the Assad tion in Syria has thus far paid off, Russian airpower was deployed but the future remains unclear. to Syria after Moscow had con- In response to a question at a cluded that the collapse of Bashar press conference last Decem- al-Assad’s military was immi- ber, Putin suggested that Russia nent. If allowed to happen, that would find it easy to withdraw would have almost inevitably led from Syria once its mission there My home is my castle. to the takeover of Damascus by is accomplished. Accomplish- the self-proclaimed Islamic State ing its mission, however, would (IS). Such a triumph would have require a successful completion greatly enhanced the extremists’ of the Vienna process and some We know how to secure appeal not only in the Middle sort of breakthrough in the fight East, but across the entire Muslim against IS in Syria. Neither looks world. Putin, thinking he both imminent at the moment. Even could and had to prevent it, pro- if the mission is accomplished, your data. ceeded to order Russia’s first-ever it is unlikely that Russia, which offensive military operation in aspires to a major global role, an Arab country. The immediate would vacate a position it has objective of the intervention has won in the heart of the Middle been reached. With Russia’s sup- East. port in the air, Assad’s military Russia, meanwhile, would need was able to stabilize the situation to prosecute its first “US-style” on the battlefield and gain some war, in which the Air Force and IT security infl uences all areas of application where digital solutions and ground, at the expense of other Navy engage the enemy with business models are important. Bavaria supports this future-oriented jihadi groups more than of IS itself. often spectacular strikes while sector with funding and the establishment of a world-class competence Putin’s longer-term objective suffering no combat casualties. was to have as many jihadists Above all, Vladimir Putin would centre for IT security together with the Fraunhofer AISEC. This is good news killed in Syria as possible, par- need to ensure that the inter- for players in Bavaria, such as Kaspersky, Symantec, Giesecke & Devrient ticularly those hailing from Russia vention he has ordered does not and many others. and other countries of the former escalate toward a more tradi- Soviet Union. Russian forces tional military engagement, with intervened in the Middle East to Russian ground troops and the www.invest-in-bavaria.com avoid having to fight at home. inevitable casualties drawing dis- It is still too early to assess the turbing parallels with the failed success of this strategy. A month PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/TASS Soviet intervention in Afghanistan into the Syria campaign, terror- A Russian Sukhoi Su-34 fighter bomber, equipped with short- and medium-range air-to-air missiles, being prepared for a mission, Dec. 1, 2015. three decades ago. n

IIB0061_Anzeige_SecurityTimes_290x260_RZ.indd 1 26.01.15 16:11 12 February 2016 February 2016 13

The Security Times • Strategy or the last 67 years the The Security Times • Strategy the upcoming NATO summit to During the Cold War, the aims of NATO have agree on a strategic adaptation annual Reforger military exer- Jens been peace and stabil- that will go further than the RAP: cises, conducted by NATO as a ity based on a rock-solid A new Warsaw pact more military forward presence, deterrence instrument, involved Stoltenberg: collectiveF defense, co-operative immediate reaction forces, fol- the participation of as many security and an active role in As NATO prepares for this July’s summit in Poland, it must low-on troops and rapid deploy- as 125,000 allied troops in the The best crisis management. In the post- ability, robust national defense, 1980s. Crimea security environment, face the nature of the Russian threat | By Tomasz Chłoń accurate situational awareness, How can we interpret the Rus- these foundations of NATO host nation support, a renewed sian-Belorussian Zapad 2013 defense strategy remain as valid as ever, nuclear posture, sound planning exercises, with 100,000 troops but we will have to get our pri- and Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/ practicing a simulated nuclear against orities straight. The nature of AD) capabilities. This should all strike on Warsaw? Or Russia’s the threat and our response to be comprehensively covered in recent plans to strengthen its extremism it will be the focus of attention Warsaw. Western Military District by cre- when NATO leaders convene at In the face of threats from ating three divisions potentially is unity the summit in Warsaw this July. Russia, individual allied nations equipped with nuclear weapons? Russia’s annexation of Crimea have already declared their inten- Or the threat that Russian troops oday, we are facing highlighted the return of territo- tion to strengthen their presence and weaponry already stationed greater challenges rial aggression in Europe. But on the eastern flank. The US is in the Kaliningrad Oblast pose Tto our security than it was during the 2008 Russo- planning a pre-positioning of to the Baltic States because of the we have experienced for a Georgian War, which resulted supplies and military equipment Suwałki Gap? generation,” said NATO in Georgia losing control of part while the UK has Secretary General Jens of its territory, that this long- already announced a Stoltenberg in an article for forgotten threat had re-appeared. long-term presence of Tomasz Chłoń Newsweek in late January. Moscow’s continuous support for company-sized British is Plenipotentiary for the NATO Summit 2016 Stoltenberg calls out the separatists in East Ukraine army units in Poland at the Ministry Russia for “illegally annex- has further shown its contempt and the three Baltic of Foreign Affairs in Poland. ing Crimea,” making it “the for the territorial sovereignty of States. In addition, The opinions he expresses first European country to its neighbor. Russia’s aggression NATO members con- are solely his own. take part of another by has threatened the very fabric of ducted over 200 mili- PRIVATE force since World War II.” European security order. tary exercises in 2015, Russia has now entered The EU-Ukraine Association and their number and size should The scope of threats is even the war in Syria on the Agreement was a great oppor- grow in 2016. more complicated today, with side of President Bashar al- tunity for the Ukrainians, but As much as we appreciate this, the “frost from the East” along- Assad, complicating mat- the Kremlin viewed it differently we are aware that there is no con- side the heat emanating from the ters still further. “I would – as an apparent threat. Ukraine sensus within NATO as to what “Southern arc of instability.” The like to see Russia playing a wanted to replicate the transfor- further substantive measures worst possible mistake by NATO constructive role in the fight mation and economic success of should be adopted. The threat would be to split its threat percep- IMAGO/RUSSIAN LOOK IMAGO/RUSSIAN against ISIS, our common its Central European neighbors. The return of territorial aggression in Europe: Russia’s annexation of Crimea will be celebrated again perception diverges, which is why tion according to narrow regional enemy,” Stoltenberg said. Although once sharing the same in St. Petersburg on Mar. 18. we need the determination of all perspectives. We instead need to The secretary general con- misery of being a Soviet satellite, member countries to agree on the see things clearly, and act deci- siders the challenges the they are now in far better shape cations in the air and at sea should Response Force (NRF), which right direction to reassure allies threats as well as on a common sively. The threat posed by Russia world faces to be complex and strongly anchored in Western be treated in all seriousness. would be a very-high-readiness and strengthen NATO’s collective response to those threats. is strategic in nature, including and multifaceted and sees institutions. NATO’s response to the new force able to deploy within two to defense posture in proportion to Germany is an indispensable its nuclear dimension. Counter- the transatlantic alliance The international security security situation at the Wales five days. In June 2015, NATO’s the growing threat. At the Warsaw power that carries a historical co- measures require solid collec- playing a key role in trying environment around NATO has summit was quick and carefully defense ministers decided to Summit in July, Eastern Europe- responsibility for keeping peace in tive defense measures supported to resolve them. become unstable. In the East, considered with the clear goal of increase the size of NRF to as ans expect a further improvement Europe. Rolf Nikel, Germany’s by credible modern deterrence. Stoltenberg wants NATO Russia fails to comply with reassuring eastern allies. It set in many as 40,000 troops (up from of capabilities, more military pres- ambassador to Poland, has said The complex of problems to the to strengthen its collective the Minsk Agreements. While motion a military re-adaptation 13,000 envisaged at the start of ence in the East, better adapted recently that Polish-German rela- south calls for a different set of defense. The organization, verbal threats such as invading process. NATO approved its 2015). The Multinational Corps planning and command structure, tions are a treasure to be guarded. measures, building on two other he writes, has increased its the Baltic States or launching a Readiness Action Plan (RAP) to Northeast in Szczecin will also be and sustainability of these pro- Results of these relations include NATO missions: crisis manage- military presence in Cen- nuclear attack on Turkey can be strengthen its guarantees under expanded, and small NATO C2 cesses should they be tested. To a strengthening of the Multina- ment and co-operative security. tral and Eastern Europe. It considered merely an element of Article 5 of the Washington units (also called NATO Force do that, allied nations will have tional Corps North East, the twin- The Warsaw summit has pro- has more than doubled the information warfare – or politi- Treaty. The RAP envisaged short- Integration Units) spread along not only to muster political will, ning of military units and the duced a wise action plan. NATO size of the NATO Response cal cockiness aimed at pleasing ening the reaction time of NATO the entire eastern flank are being but also to reach deeply into their deployment of generals from one should continue to do what is has Force to over 40,000 troops: domestic audiences – military forces if members are threatened. activated. purses. country to command units from done successfully over the past 67 “NATO is doing what is exercises, including the sce- The agreed plans also included In sum, the agreed measures Since the Wales decisions are another country. Yet Germany years, by not seeking conflict, yet necessary to stay strong and nario of a nuclear strike (e.g. on creation of a “spearhead unit” have increased NATO opera- being implemented gradually, we remains restrained about increas- staying vigilant and, most impor- keep its people safe. There Warsaw), and hundreds of provo- within the already existing NATO tional capabilities, a step in the would like leaders gathered at ing NATO’s presence in the east. tantly, prepared. n

is no contradiction between EISENHUTH IMAGO/THOMAS having a strong defense and How to play the Ukraine card? The board game Risk was originally released in 1957 and has been reissued many times. It allows for all kinds of strategic alliances and unofficial treaties. being open to dialogue. Being strong means being more able to engage in dia- logue with countries such as Russia.” Stoltenberg considers Game of thrones NATO to be at the fore- front of the fight against Europe needs security arrangements that take Moscow’s legitimate interests into account without relegating international terrorism. The aim of the organization’s certain NATO and EU aspirants to a permanent zone of limited sovereignty | By Michael Rühle biggest-ever operation had been to deny safe haven to ussia’s annexation of is both militarily coherent and sure all NATO states. Thus, while East has further bolstered the a new dialogue are equally short- international terrorists in Crimea and its ongo- politically acceptable will be more NATO’s reinforcement para- rationale for addressing the crisis sighted. Russia’s permanent seat Afghanistan. ing undeclared war demanding. digm is likely to be augmented in the region. While the Russia on the UN Security Council gives The former prime minister with Ukraine have This has already become evident by equipment pre-positioning or challenge is mainly a matter of it veto power over NATO-led of Norway also mentioned Rcreated a radically new situation with regard to the centerpiece of similar measures, it is unlikely to deterrence, IS is an immediate operations of a nature considered NATO’s efforts in train- for NATO. Two major premises NATO’s military response, the morph into posturing reminiscent threat requiring an immediate beyond collective defense – a fact ing Iraqi officers in areas upon which the alliance’s post- Readiness Action Plan (RAP), of the Cold War’s substantial military response. that calls for at least some sort of such as countering roadside Cold War reform was based – that which emphasizes the rapid deliv- military deployments. Adapting NATO’s military pos- dialogue. The same goes for the If you don’t dare bombs, de-mining, cyberde- Russia’s evolution would remain ery of reinforcements to Cen- A similar logic pertains to the ture is a major challenge, yet need to reduce the risk of military fense and military field med- benign and the enlargement of tral and Eastern Europe. RAP is nuclear dimension of deterrence. developing a new policy towards incident. icine. NATO was working Western institutions could be rec- designed to remain compliant with Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling Russia will be equally difficult; However, an even more impor- with Tunisian intelligence onciled with Russia’s interests the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding has provided a new rationale not only have various member tant reason for engagement is and the country’s special – no longer apply. Act, whereby NATO will not for nuclear deterrence as a basis states traditionally held different the unresolved issue of Russia’s to change the future, forces to fight terrorism, Russia’s intervention does not deploy substantial combat forces of defense, but any revisiting of views on Russia, but Russia itself future role in European security. and stood ready to support necessarily amount to a direct or nuclear weapons on the terri- NATO’s nuclear policy will not has changed in such a way that a The current focus on military bal- Libya should the situation threat to NATO. However, if tory of its new members. result in a mirroring of Russian reliable analysis is both necessary ances obscures the fact that the have called for it. Ukraine’s wish to associate itself While it can be argued that Rus- doctrinal and rhetorical excesses. and daunting. real issue at stake is a geopolitical others will. The organization also with the European Union is sia’s behavior has pulled the rug Here, too, reassuring NATO’s Most observers agree that one: Russia’s place in Europe. The helped Ukraine, Moldova already a casus belli for Moscow, out from under these assurances, own members is as important as Putin’s 2012 return to the office West’s twin strategy of enlarging and Georgia to better the security of Europe’s post-Cold NATO has thus far sought to deterring Russia. of president has shifted the issue NATO and the EU while forg- defend themselves. War order, which includes the avoid irreversible steps of maintaining power to center ing an ever-closer relationship In Iraq and Syria, all right of countries to freely choose that could undermine stage. Russia’s military doctrine with Russia was contingent on a NATO allies took part their alignments, has experienced a new rapprochement Michael Rühle strongly reflects the fear of “color cooperative environment, i.e. on “in the global coalition to a major setback. with Russia. To put heads the Energy Security Section revolutions” like those in Georgia Russia’s acquiescence. Now that degrade and destroy ISIS,” Worse, with its military inter- it bluntly, RAP was in NATO’s Emerging Security and Ukraine, as well as the Arab Russia has demonstrated that it Challenges Division. Stoltenberg said. “They vention in Syria, Russia has now meant to assure Russia The opinions he expresses Spring. will violently oppose the further have agreed to additional become part of the IS conundrum as much as NATO’s are solely his own. Putin’s aim is thus not an elu- expansion of NATO and the EU assurance measures for at NATO’s southeastern borders. eastern allies. sive reconstruction of the Soviet into its sphere of interest, the

Turkey, and NATO will The West, notably the United However, given the PRIVATE Union, but rather to maintain the game has changed. continue to enhance Tur- States, has been forced to real- steady improvement regime and prevent any further Convincing Russia of the The world belongs to those key’s own air defenses. ize that any vacuum it allows to of Russia’s anti-access/area denial NATO’s southern states, waning of Russia’s political clout. benign nature of NATO and EU NATO fully supports all develop in the Middle East will be (A2/AD) capabilities, such as the where security is determined less With Russia’s territorial amputa- enlargement appears a lost cause. who dare. efforts to find a political filled by other actors. deployment of modern air defense by Russia than by instability in tions in countries it considers to Europe needs security arrange- Download our exclusive report on solution to the conflict in These developments have and anti-ship missiles in Kalinin- North Africa and the Middle be within its traditional sphere ments that take legitimate Rus- Syria, including a political sparked NATO’s largest politi- grad, some are calling for a shift East, must also be reassured of influence, Moscow is creating sian interests into account with- the future – covering topics like transition and democratic cal and military reorientation from “reassurance” to “deter- that NATO remains their best a string of “frozen conflicts” to out relegating certain NATO and climate change, migration, and elections.” n since the end of the Cold War. rence.” They envisage a posture insurance policy. While south- prevent these countries from join- EU aspirants to a permanent zone our ageing population – from the But the Allies must also consider focused less on reinforcements ern member states have less spe- ing Western institutions. of limited sovereignty. Develop- people who have been thinking the policy they want to pursue and more on standing, in-theater cific defense requirements than At the same time, Russia is ing such arrangements will be about it for 125 years. towards Russia. As Russia will military capabilities. This should those in the east, their concern propping up Syria, its last ally difficult,particularly as Russia’s be an important factor in shaping deny Russia the opportunity to about a perceived overemphasis in the Middle East. Whether it’s behavior has all but destroyed allianz.com/ourworldandus political and military develop- use its regional military superior- of NATO’s eastern dimension improvised activism or part of its credibility as a guarantor of Publisher: Detlef W. Prinz Executive Editor: Theo Sommer ments in both the eastern and ity to create a fait accompli, for is palpable. For NATO to avoid a master plan, most observers agreed norms. For the tragedy of Editors: Peter H. Koepf, Lutz Lichtenberger, southern reaches of NATO, allies example through a limited incur- a bifurcation into two regional agree that this policy is here to a wayward Russia not to become Jonathan Lutes must do more than simply lament sion into a Baltic State. groupings with different security stay. a tragedy for all of Europe, the Senior Art Director: Paul M. Kern Layout: Manuel Schwartz, Mike Zastrow the failure of earlier hopes for a NATO need not hold changes concerns, it must maintain its Given this backdrop, attempts previous focus on institutions Times Media GmbH stable European order. to its strategy or posture hos- ability to conduct expeditionary to resurrect the overhyped and memberships must be sup- Tempelhofer Ufer 23-24 10963 Berlin, Germany NATO’s initial reaction to the tage to Russian (mis)perceptions; missions in full, whenever and NATO-Russia Strategic Part- plemented by policies prioritiz- www.times-media.de Russia-Ukraine crisis was swift however, it must carefully ponder wherever necessary. The fight by nership seems futile. However, ing functional cooperation over [email protected] Phone +49 30-2150-5400 and clear: it increased its military the messages such a shift would many member states against IS notions that NATO could remain formal affiliation. More years of Fax +49 30-2150-5447 presence and activities in the east. send to Russia as well as to its demonstrates as much. in wait-and-see mode or that it hard work are still required for ISSN 2191-6462 However, transforming these ini- member states. What may deter The debate in Europe over the must build up more military Europe to become truly “whole Press deadline: February 5, 2016 tial reflexes into a posture that Russia may not necessarily reas- flow of refugees from the Middle muscle before engaging Russia in and free.” n 14 February 2016 February 2016 15 German armed forces abroad

The Security Times • Strategy Total: 3,002 Operation nameThe Security Times • Strategy region military personnel

STRATAIRMEDEVAC KFOR Germany 41 Kosovo 698

On the OAE Operation Counter Daesh Resolute Support Mediterranean Sea 175 The Middle East 419 Afghanistan, Uzbekistan 842 Operation Sophia sidelines Mediterranean Sea 246 MINURSO Western Sahara 4 UNIFIL Lebanon 110 UNAMA Training mission Afghanistan 1 no more Northern Iraq 106 Two years into Germany’s EUTM SOM Somalia 9 “new” foreign policy MINUSMA EUTM Mali Mali 197 Senegal, Mali 12 By Volker Perthes UNMIL UNAMID UNMISS Atalanta Liberia 3 Sudan 8 Southern Sudan 17 Horn of Africa 114

as of Jan. 18, 2016; source: Bundeswehr PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/KAY NIETFELD PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/KAY JASPERSEN PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/CARMEN

wo years ago, at the i.e. oblivious to its international coming to realize that their idea of disappeared. The refugee crisis, makers develop their country’s Gearing up: German soldiers does not see itself as a military Front National in France could few years. Berlin neither meets scious and transparent about its also undermine the international Make love and peace! As the 2014 Munich Security weight and power. Just ask policy institutionalized multilateralism for example, demands policy international profile. Germany help to protect the Afghan army's power. Influence can also be make Germany feel rather lonely NATO’s 2-percent-of-GDP national interests. order at large, which Germany Bundeswehr becomes more Conference, Germa- makers from Greece. The last two and multilateral decision-making approaches that span diplomacy, has taken the diplomatic lead in Camp Shaheen near Masar-I- won by political and economic in Europe. Further state failures target for defense nor the 0.7 Given the high level of inter- and Europe see as vital for their engaged in international Sharif in December. missions, German soldiers are ny’s President Joachim years, however, were something is not shared by most of their part- defense, development, European the crisis of Russia’s presence in means, indeed, in the view of in Europe’s south will have all percent Official Development national connectivity not only of security and well-being. being sent off – and welcomed TGauck, Foreign Minister Frank- like a crash course in geopolitical ners in the rest of the world. They integration, homeland security Ukraine; it was a key participant self-proclaimed Islamic State the German elite, much more EU states, including Germany, Assistance (ODA) quota; how- the German economy, Germany For Berlin, the solution is not back by their wives. Walter Steinmeier and Defense realism for post-Cold War Ger- have had to accept that the United and social policy. in the nuclear negotiations with (IS). effectively. opting for security rather than ever, unlike some of its partners is vulnerable even to geographi- to reduce its engagement in and Minister Ursula von der Leyen many. Lessons included the Rus- States is no longer prepared to Crises that have impact on Iran; it is involved, as a member Policymakers in Berlin are Germany will remain a pro- partnership vis-à-vis the south. it has not slashed its defense cally distant developments. As a with China. Rather, Germany is economic and political transfor- all signaled that Germany, sian annexation of Crimea and take the lead in any crisis at any German and European security of the International Syria Sup- aware that their European and moter of a rules-based interna- And China’s regional posture, budget and has substantially middle power, however, it cannot in the process of politicizing its mation will be more effective in henceforth, was willing to play the conflict in eastern Ukraine; the are no longer separa- port Group, in recent efforts to international partners expect this tional order – both in the pan- approach to Asia: i.e., engaging in their immediate environment than a more substantive role in inter- explosion of Syria; the participa- ble from one another: find a political solution to the new level of international co- European realm and globally – a more open political debate with in other parts of the world. national politics, particularly tion of jihadists with German or Refugees, Syria, Syrian war; and it has accepted leadership to become a regular and still prefers to act and, where Refugees, Syria, Russia, terrorism Chinese leaders while simultane- The EU will certainly remain with regard to crisis manage- other European passports in the Volker Perthes Russia, terrorism the OSCE presidency for 2016. feature of German policies, not appropriate, lead in association ously increasing its cooperation in Germany’s main framework of ment. Most of Germany’s part- Syrian war; terrorist attacks in is director and EU problem- Moreover, Berlin has beefed up just an accidental one. Berlin no with partners such as France, all policy fields with like-minded action. Given the turbulence in of the German Institute and EU problem-solving capacity ners and foes have indeed seen Europe; and an unprecedented for International and Security solving capacity have its contribution to NATO reas- longer sees this as a challenge. rather than alone. German policy countries in the Pacific Rim, such the world around us, Germany that something has changed in influx of refugees. Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. merged into one single surance measures in the Baltic Rather, these expectations are makers may yet have to learn have merged into as Australia or South Korea. has a fundamental interest in Berlin’s foreign policy behavior. While the European Union has crisis landscape. region and Central Europe. It matched by a growing interest in that it is not always enough to At the same time, there is little strengthening the foreign policy Some, quite naturally, still criti- only received some 3 percent or Germans and other is also increasingly prepared sustaining the influence Germany do what is “right” when part- one single crisis landscape. doubt that the main focus of and security policy dimensions of SWP cize Germany for contributing less of all refugees worldwide, Europeans have had to contribute military forces has won, not least in diplomatic ners who may even share Berlin’s Germany’s foreign and security the EU. It is one thing for German too little; others applaud what the number of arrivals has sig- time, while rising or re-emerging to learn that conflicts on their to crisis interventions outside formats where, despite not being objectives don’t feel sufficiently along with the way Washington increased funding for diplo- be present everywhere with the policies will be on the eastern and policy makers to enjoy the height- they see in terms of leadership; nificantly strained the capacities powers, notably China, India and periphery will not simply burn NATO’s area: as part of UN a permanent member of the Secu- consulted. and Beijing manage their strategic macy. Berlin is likely to further same level of involvement. southern vicinities of the EU and ened global demand for German and still others worry about the of states at the EU’s external bor- Brazil, seem yet unprepared to out and may not be contain- efforts in Mali, as one of the rity Council, it figures promi- Ironically, perhaps, the more relationship, will affect German develop its diplomatic toolbox, The freedom of the seas in on Europe itself. After all, geo­ contributions to international way Germany leads where it ders as well as of major recipient contribute effectively to the global able. They were also forced to countries prolonging their mili- nently, such as the P5+1 on Iran Germany assumes leadership and European efforts to promote focusing on the opportunities general and more specifically the graphy remains a critical factor. politics and privileged relations does. This was particularly evi- countries. The stream of refugees order. As a result, regional orders acknowledge that major crises in tary engagement in Afghanistan, and the “Normandy Quartet” roles internationally, the more multilateral solutions for global of digital diplomacy and on a prevention of military conflict Immediate security risks tend to with Germany. But they must also dent with regard to the refugee has triggered tensions within the have been threatened, not only in their vicinity will not be resolved, with arms deliveries and training to address the crisis in Ukraine. it becomes dependent on other challenges such as climate change more networked national and in the South China Sea consti- emanate from nearby rather than do more to explain at home that crisis, where more than a few EU EU and has furthered right-wing the neighborhood of Europe, but at least not in the short term, but activities in Northern Iraq, and German policy preferences are international actors. The out- and cybersecurity. European foreign policy that tute obvious and fundamental from distant regions; societies without the EU, Germany – like partners complained that Berlin populist movements almost every- in Europe itself. will need to be managed over more recently with reconnais- relatively stable. Even with an come of the US elections will also For all these reasons, we should takes the activities and possible German interests. An aggressive are more closely linked; and the France and the UK – would be had failed to consult them. where on the continent. At the same time, dividing extended periods. sance flights over Syria and other increased preparedness to use determine the coherence of the expect Germany to increase its contributions of non-state actors Chinese pursuit of hegemonic capabilities Germany and the EU a much less relevant, less secure Even in previous years, Germany More generally, Germans lines between the domestic and This changing environment has measures to support France and military force in UN, NATO Western community of states; the resources available for foreign into consideration. Also expect aspirations would not only can muster to manage conflicts, and less prosperous international was not exactly machtvergessen, and Europeans are increasingly international spheres have all but certainly helped German policy the US-led coalition against the or EU operations, Germany possible electoral success of the and security policy over the next Germany to become more con- threaten regional stability, but stabilize countries and support actor. n 16-01-29_003_ID16068_eAz_Istanbul_Security Times_290x260_RZgp

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16-01-29_003_ID16068_eAz_Istanbul_Security Times_290x260_RZgp.indd 1 29.01.16 14:54 QW_AZ_SecurityTimes_2016_290x260-D-RZ.indd 1 26.01.16 10:39 16 February 2016 e he transatlantic alliance The Security Times • Strategy c But there is significant dissent faces both challenges and n within Europe over TTIP. Over opportunities in 2016: e half in 24 of the 28 EU nations February 2016 Section B 17 threats of terrorism, the rg support such a transatlantic deal. ramificationsT of a US presidential ve But such backing is falling in most election, a possible British vote on Convergence Di nations, and 70 percent in Austria leaving the European Union, ongo- and 59 percent in Germany actu- ing tensions with Russia, a slow- ally oppose it. (Just 21 percent of ing Chinese economy that may Americans think TTIP would be compound already slow European bad for the US.) growth and a disappointing US At the same time, European and recovery. At the same time, Brus- Russia, China, ISIS: Achieving consensus between American publics differ over some sels and Washington continue to of the aspects and consequences of negotiate a groundbreaking single Europe and the US may prove no less daunting globalization. Half of Americans transatlantic marketplace, which, believe that trade destroys jobs. if successful, promises creation of this year than in the past | By Bruce Stokes But a median of just 25 percent of an ever-deeper transatlantic rela- Europeans agree (European public tionship. was conducted before the terrorist and responsibilities not shared by backing for NATO has actually anticipate a larger role for Beijing. opinion varies widely: 49 percent How Europe and the US respond attacks in Paris in November 2015 its European allies. fallen 18 points in the last six A median of 59 percent in Europe of the French say trade is a job to both these challenges and and in San Bernardino, California, When it comes to actually doing years, from 73 percent in 2009 to voice the view that China has killer while just 19 percent of the Standoff opportunities is likely to be shaped in December 2015. something about transatlantic 55 percent in 2015. already or will one day replace British hold that view). by the public mood on both sides Given these events, it is entirely challenges, the allies are united Moreover, publics within the the US as the world’s superpower. Meanwhile, Europeans and of the Atlantic. Such sentiment is possible that European concern in their support of limited mili- transatlantic alliance disagree Americans are again divided on Americans both embrace and reject decidedly mixed, notably within over IS is now even higher. This tary action against IS. Eight-in- about their mutual obligation the subject (46 percent say China foreign investment. A median of Europe. already appears to be the case in ten Americans and a median of to come to each other’s defense. has or will supplant the US, 48 75 percent of Europeans and 75 in the Gulf None of this is new. During the the US: A December 2015 survey two-thirds of Europeans support About half or more in Germany precent say never), hardly a vote percent of Americans hold the Cold War Americans and Europe- found that 83 percent of Ameri- current US military actions in Iraq (58 percent), France (53 percent) of confidence in the trajectory of view that foreign companies build- SecuritySaudi Arabia Challenges and Iran: ans differed over how to deal with cans thought that IS was a major and Syria against the Islamic mili- and Italy (51 percent) believe that US global dominance. ing factories in their country is a the Soviet Union. They disagreed threat to the national well-being. tant group. their country should not use mili- Just as strategic challenges both good thing. Who can object to for- An escalating struggle on economic policy in the late Europeans and Americans also Solidarity is lacking, however, tary force to defend a NATO ally unite and divide transatlantic pub- eigners creating jobs? At the same 1970s and again in the wake of share a less intense apprehension when it comes to dealing with that is a neighbor of Russia. And lics, Europeans and Americans see time, a median of only 36 percent for hegemony in the Middle East the Great Recession. And they about global climate change (42 Russia over its actions in Ukraine, merely 49 percent of the Brit- eye-to-eye on some of the economic of Europeans and 28 percent of have long seen China through a percent of both are very concerned) raising serious questions about ish, and 48 percent of the Polish opportunities they face. However, Americans believe that foreign-led By Tomas Avenarius different lens. Thus today’s con- and similar worries about tensions NATO cohesion in the face of the and Spanish publics, are willing to they differ on others. And some of mergers and acquisitions are good vergence and divergence in trans- between Russia and its neighbors live up to their mutual the greatest differences exist within for their country,. atlantic public opinion ensures (43 percent very concerned in the defense commitments. Europe, not across the Atlantic. Similarly, China, the economic that achieving consensus between US, 41 percent in Europe). Only in the US (56 per- Both Europeans and Americans elephant in the room, both unites Europe and the US may prove no But the transatlantic allies differ Bruce Stokes cent) and Canada (53 share pessimism about the eco- and divides transatlantic publics. less daunting this year than it has greatly in their perception of other is director of global economic percent) does over half nomic well-being of the next gen- Just 36 percent of Americans in the past. international threats. There is a attitudes at the stand ready to go to the eration. A median of 64 percent in believe China is the world’s leading Pew Research Center. A generation after the end of the 24-percentage-point differential aid of a NATO partner Europe and 60 percent in the US economy today. A slightly greater Cold War, Europeans and Ameri- between American (59 percent) against Russia. believe that when children today median of 42 percent across six EU cans have a number of common and European (35 percent) con- Pew Research Center grow up they will be worse off countries see China as number 1. KAVEH SARDARI strategic concerns, albeit many of cerns about cyberattacks on gov- findings also highlight than their parents. There is, however, division within them are new. But they also differ ernments, banks and corporations, security alliance’s gravest chal- other serious divisions within the There is a more positive common Europe about China: 49 percent of markedly on what to do about and a 20 point divergence in worry lenge since the collapse of the alliance that arise out of differing outlook on globalization. A the French but only 25 percent of PICTURE ALLIANCE / ABACA/PARSPIX PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/BERND VON JUTRCZENKA certain common challenges, espe- about Iran’s nuclear program (62 Soviet Union. perspectives on what to do about median of 83 percent in six major the Poles see China as the leading henever the topic is The struggle that began three sians” can no longer veil the fun- in one way or another and form tion of Sunni Islam called Wah- Adversaries: Iran's Supreme cially the renewed threat posed by percent of Americans, 42 percent Seven-in-ten Poles and nearly Ukraine. 62 percent of Americans EU nations and 68 percent in the economic power. the Middle East, its and a half decades ago in 1979 damental conflict between the part of the Shiite arc by which habism – is not a clerical state Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Russian expansionism. of Europeans). six-in-ten Americans say Russia is favor offering NATO membership US believe that growing interna- Postwar history teaches that the oil, overt or covert with the Iranian Revolution in archconservative Saudi kingdom Tehran – much to the dismay of and not a theocracy. Since the (left), and Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, King and Prime Minister Europeans and Americans share Notably, neither the American a major military threat. But only to Ukraine, but only 36 percent of tional trade and business ties are US-European alliance does not civil wars, Islamist Tehran is now being conducted and the physically and ideologi- the Gulf’s Sunni regimes, along establishment of modern Saudi of Saudi Arabia. an intense worry about the self- (30 percent) nor the European (17 about four-in-ten Germans agree. Germans agree. Meanwhile, while good for their country. need Americans and Europeans terrorismW or Islam itself, we keep through proxy wars and thinly cally aging revolutionary Shiite with Egypt and Jordan – exerts Arabia in 1932, the foundation of proclaimed Islamic State (IS). A percent) publics are very troubled Most Europeans hold the security the American public is divided More specifically, half of Ameri- to see eye-to-eye on every issue. hearing a well-worn bit of wisdom veiled political conflicts through- clerics in Iran. its influence throughout the Arab the monarchy, which regards and median of 70 percent of Europe- by such out-of-area issues as ter- alliance in high regard: 74 percent over sending arms to Ukraine, cans think that the Transatlantic But experience also suggests that from Western diplomats, policy out the Middle East. Saudi and The conflict finally broke out world. legitimizes itself as the custodian the problem was compounded by ans in the six most populous EU ritorial disputes between China in Poland, 64 percent in France Germans are clearly against such Trade and Investment Partnership the relationship is severely more makers and the business commu- Iranian interests collide and clash into the open at the beginning of Just how much of a threat of all Islam’s holy sites of Mecca a Shiite uprising in the tiny neigh- nations and 68 percent of Ameri- and its neighbors. However, the and Italy and 60 percent in the action: 77 percent oppose while 19 (TTIP), currently under negotia- complicated when transatlantic nity: No one can afford the luxury mercilessly in the wars in Syria, 2016. “The battle of the beards” Riyadh regards its neighbor, both and Medina, has been an iron pact boring state of Bahrain, where cans said they were very concerned nearly two-to-one differential in United Kingdom. percent support. tion, would be a good thing for the public opinion diverges. In the of alienating Saudi Arabia. Iraq and Yemen. They each have was the headline of one German before and after the nuclear agree- between the Saud dynasty and Shiites constitute the majority of about the Islamic terrorist group, their level of concern is a reminder But just 49 percent of Americans Europeans and Americans are US. And 53 percent of Europeans months ahead, policy makers will That’s true. The Arabian Desert a barely concealed hand in Leba- mass-market newspaper on the ment, was made clear in a remark Wahhabi Muslim scholars. From the population but are ruled by a according to a Spring 2015 Pew that, thanks to geography and say they have a favorable view of closer in their views of China’s favor such a deal, according to the ignore both public sentiment and kingdom is an oil super-heavy- non and Palestine. Even the global sudden Saudi-Iranian escalation. by Saudi King Abdullah, who died the beginning, this alliance has Sunni royal family closely allied Research Center survey. This poll history, the US has Asian interests the security alliance. And German strategic role in the future. Both most recent Eurobarometer poll. such divergence at their peril. n weight, the leading Arab power petroleum market is a theater Enraged at Saudi Arabia’s execu- last year. In a leaked diplomatic severely restricted the monarchy’s with the Saudis. That explains in the Gulf as well as the global in this conflict. Saudi Arabia is tion of a dissident Shiite cleric, cable, he told the US government: capacity to reform. why the uprising was quickly put lead nation of Islam. waging a pricing war on the global Nimr Baqir al-Nimr, as part of It’s time to “cut off the snake’s For its part, the Islamic Repub- down by forces of the Gulf Coop- However, even before the inter- oil market. The price of a barrel a mass execution of 47 Saudis head.” lic of Iran, with a population of eration Council with the Saudis in national nuclear agreement with of crude oil has fallen dramati- in early January, Iran’s Supreme Abdullah was overtly urging almost 80 million, was created the vanguard. Iran was signed and sealed in July cally during the past year. Energy Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Saudi Arabia’s American ally to in a revolution against a secular In the Saudis’ view, ever since 2015, a second insight challenging analysts think the market could go threatened the Saudis with “divine bomb Iran’s nuclear installations – monarch. The fall of the Shah led the Iran nuclear deal was final- the old doctrine began gaining to as low as $20 per barrel, with retribution” for the to the proclamation of a firmly ized, their once-best friends in currency: that today, no one can only a medium-term rebound on death of Nimr. A mob Shiite republic that has both a the West have been falling over safely ignore the Islamic Republic the horizon. that seemed just wait- president and a parliament. Stra- themselves to court their Iranian of Iran, a rising petro power aspir- Saudi Arabia’s ever-higher ing to be activated then Tomas Avenarius tegic policy and de facto leader- enemy. Most sanctions have been is an editor for the Munich-based - ing towards regional hegemony, output is flooding the global attacked and set fire to Süddeutsche Zeitung. He served ship, however, lie in the hands of lifted. The red carpet laid for Ira a growth market of the future market with cheap oil – much the Saudi embassy in as the paper’s Cairo correspondent a “spiritual leader” appointed by nian President Hassan Rouhani and the most important voice for to the detriment of its own rev- Tehran. until 2015. a council of experts, mainly cler- on his European tour demon- Shiite Muslims, not least within enue, which is all but completely Incensed at this gross ics. The Vilayat-e Faqih devised strated clearly to the leadership the Arab world. dependent on oil. This tactic is no violation of diplomatic by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Riyadh just how much the KATHARINA EGLAU The problem with this bilateral longer aimed chiefly at the US and standards and inter- means “rule by the supreme reli- Iranians have risen in European configuration on the Persian Gulf its rising production levels thanks national protocol, Riyadh broke something the US, as we know, did gious scholar.” In its early days and American esteem since the is not only that, even for the most to fracking. It’s also targeting Iran, off relations with its neighbor not do. Instead, President Barack the Islamic Republic also espoused agreement. Iran, internation- hard-boiled policy makers, both which is set to return to the oil and pressured other Arab states Obama pushed forward with the a doctrine of “exporting revolu- ally isolated since the Islamic states set unattractive examples market now that its sanctions have to follow suit. Bahrain, Kuwait, nuclear deal with Iran, which was tion,” spreading fear among the Revolution, is returning to the with respect to their treatment of been lifted as part of the newly Sudan and the United Arab Emir- concluded in July 2015. It allowed Gulf monarchs and prompting world market, head unbowed. civil and human rights, democracy forged nuclear agreement. ates withdrew their diplomats the Saudis’ archenemy to return them to establish the Gulf Coop- After three and a half decades of and rule of law. The two regimes In the multiple conflicts in the from Tehran, the Arab League to the global market and to the eration Council as a defensive isolation, its decrepit infrastruc- are world leaders in their use of region, loose ends almost always sent a bellicose letter of protest to international stage. No longer is alliance against their unpredict- ture requires the investment of the death penalty; both in part lead back to the two Gulf rivals, Tehran over the embassy attack, it a pariah state and part of the able neighbor. billions in nearly all economic employ Sharia law; both suppress and therefore to an institutional- and the Royal Saudi Air Force alleged “axis of evil.” The Saudis Even if Tehran has stopped areas. any real opposition. ized competition presenting itself resumed its bombing campaign felt betrayed by the Americans, openly propagating the export The planned contracts for the In Saudi Arabia, except for increasingly as an intra-Muslim in Yemen, its war-torn southern who had once been their closest of revolution, the conflict focuses European aviation sector alone are one experiment at the local level sectarian conflict between the neighbor, breaking a ceasefire that ally. more on the role of Shiites in raising eyebrows. Iran’s state-run and – unlike Iran with its highly majority Sunni and minority Shiite had been negotiated just a few The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States. Saudi Arabia airline is ordering 114 jets from restricted yet thoroughly active communities. weeks earlier. with its population of 30 million, has a comparatively large Shiite Airbus, a huge stroke of luck for parliament – there’s no voting at At its heart, however, this is Once again, the front now has neither a constitution nor a minority concentrated in the the European aircraft manufac- all. Women’s rights are a grim a politically driven conflict of clearly follows the borders of legal codex that encompasses all oil-producing areas in the east, turer. Over the longer term Iran matter not only among the Saudis, interests between two states over the Sunni-ruled Arab states under areas of law. The basis for parts which for decades has felt mar- will need up to 400 planes to but in many respects the Iranians hegemony in this strategically vital Saudi leadership. At least for the of its jurisprudence remains the ginalized by the royal family and modernize its fully derelict fleet, as well. region. When all is said and done, time being, Iran can rely on its Koran and Sharia law. Unlike its Wahhabi-Sunni doctrine. This which suffered for decades from The view is no more upbeat con- the catch phrases “Sunnis against allies in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, Iran, Saudi Arabia – where the fact has repeatedly led to protests. the inaccessibility of spare parts. cerning direct or indirect support Shiites” and “Arabs against Per- which are all Shiite-dominated state religion is a rigid interpreta- In 2011 during the Arab Spring, The Iranians are even interested in for terrorist groups, militias or US-made Boeing jets. resistance movements as extended The Iranians need to catch policy arms. Whether it’s Tehran’s up in numerous sectors: auto- backing of Hezbollah in Lebanon, mobiles, rail transport, machine AMTRON® other Shiite militias in Syria’s civil tools, health care, agriculture war or the fighting in Iraq, or the and much more. During Rou- ® by MENNEKES . Saudi patronage of Syrian rebels hani’s visit to Rome, his Italian and parts of the anti-government hosts not only showed respect “The wall box – designed for the forces in Iraq, both countries are for their Muslim guest by serv- “Charged“ extremely problematic and often ing fruit juice instead of wine dubious allies – but also deep- (not an uncommon gesture for with ideas. mobility of the future.“ pocketed business partners and Muslim state visits), they also indispensable regional actors. covered up the nude sculptures Even more explosive for prag- at the Capitoline Museum (an matically inclined Western poli- exceedingly unusual gesture, even ticians is the fact that the two for Muslim guests). The president predominant Gulf powers, Sunni of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a MENNEKES Elektrotechnik GmbH & Co. KG Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, have nation highly sensitive to more Industrial plugs and sockets been deeply hostile for decades. than just this issue, was treated Aloys-Mennekes-Str. 1 | D-57399 Kirchhundem That makes relations with these to a shock-free reception for Telephone +49 (0) 2723 / 41-1 | Fax +49 (0) 2723 / 41-214 states at the Straits of Hormuz thoroughly profane reasons. Rou- E-Mail [email protected] | www.MENNEKES.com – through which a quarter of the hani was on a shopping spree. world’s traded oil passes – an After the lifting of international enormously delicate matter. The sanctions Iran has gained access Saudi-Iranian conflict, after esca- again to some 100 million euros lating for months, has by now in frozen assets. In this case,

taken on the dimensions of a IMAGO/XINHUA respect for the sensitivities of Middle East cold war. Wrath of the people: Iranian protests against Saudi Arabia after the execution of Baqir al-Nimr, Jan. 4. others should pay off. n

AMTRON_290x260_Juni15.indd 1 08.06.2015 13:34:23 18 February 2016 February 2016 19

The Security Times • Challenges Syria talks verbatim The Security Times • Challenges At their meeting in Vienna on Oct. 30, 2015, the participants agreed on the following final declara- Overly optimistic? tion with the goal of bringing about an end to the violence as soon as possible: 1. Syria’s unity, independence, territorial integrity and secular character are fundamental. 2. State institutions will remain intact. The new Syria peace process is in peril before it has even begun | By Andrea Böhm 3. The rights of all Syrians, regardless of ethnicity or religious denomination, must be protected. 4. It is imperative to accelerate all diplomatic efforts to end the war. 5. Humanitarian access will be ensured throughout the territory of Syria, and the participants will increase support for internally displaced persons, refugees and their host countries. 6. Daesh and other terrorist groups – as designated by the UN Security Council, and further, as agreed by the participants – must be defeated. 7. Pursuant to the 2012 Geneva Communiqué and UN Security Council Resolution 2118, the participants invited the UN to convene representatives of the Government of Syria and the Syrian opposition for a political process leading to credible, inclusive, non-sectarian governance, followed by a new constitution and elections. These elections must be administered under UN supervision to the satisfaction of the governance and to the highest international standards of transparency and accountability. They must also be free and fair, with all Syrians, including the diaspora, eligible to participate. 8. This political process will be Syrian-led and Syrian-owned, and the Syrian people will decide the future of Syria. 9. The participants, together with the United Nations, will explore modalities for, and the imple- mentation of, a nationwide ceasefire to be initiated on a certain date and in parallel with this renewed political process. PICTURE ALLIANCE/HANS PUNZ

over his death. But the political quickly evaporated. As this article adequate political representation, displaced or forced to flee the in Geneva. Both Washington Once optimistic: US Secretary of message of that particular missile goes to print, Geneva III, which no such reasoning applies in Syria. country; more than 16 million in and Moscow have invested too State John Kerry and UN Special strike from then on dominated the had already been rhetorically Even the concession of Assad need of humanitarian assistance; much diplomatic capital to let Envoy Staffan de Mistura at preparation of the Geneva talks: demoted to “proximity talks,” at some point stepping aside about half a million besieged, the process falter before it has the Syria conference in Vienna on Nov. 14. As of Feb. 3, the Moscow wanted to define who has been suspended after only seems to be off the table for now. mostly by pro-regime forces, but even begun. US Secretary of State Syria peace talks have been represents the Syrian opposition two days until the end of Febru- According to a recent report in the also by rebel groups; cities barrel- John Kerry had all but dragged “temporarily paused.” in Geneva – not only through ary. The UN special envoy Staf- Financial Times, Assad reacted bombed by Assad’s airplanes on a the opposition’s delegation to the airstrikes, but also by introducing fan de Mistura had successfully with an angry “No way!” when a daily basis; Raqqa currently being table despite its repeated precon- and rescue workers in territory its own “opposition delegation.” defused the arguments about high-ranking envoy of Putin tried terrorized by IS; chemical weapons dition that the shelling and sieges controlled by opposition forces. The “Russian list” includes who would participate. But the to convince him in December that still being used by the regime as of civilians stop. More than 1,000 civilians have names deemed acceptable by the relentless onslaught of Russian his days as president should come well as IS. But keeping up appearances been killed by Russian bombs

PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/MICHAEL ALAEDDIN Assad regime, hence disqualifying airplanes and pro-Assad troops But not only is a will be no substitute for sub- and missiles since the beginning n early September 2015 news. It is early February 2016 frame is not the main problem. Russia is not a “regional power,” otry. The main points are: the What is left of the town them in the eyes of the major- on the ground in Syria, along with whole country being stance. The flow of refugees will of Moscow’s intervention. the picture of three-year- and the world wishes the war The events on the ground in Syria as US President Barack Obama integrity of Syrian territory; pre- Al-Shaykh Maskin in Daraq ity of Syrians. It also apparently the continuation of sieges and destroyed. The war only continue if the barrel-bomb For the time being the new old Alan Kurdi shook the in Syria would simply go away. are threatening this new peace once condescendingly called it, serving state institutions while province was liberated from IS includes the political leadership barrel bombing against civilian Andrea Böhm, in Syria and the inter- attacks, sieges and shelling pro- round of talks in Geneva have based in Beirut, world. The photo of the dead The new round of peace talks in process before it has even begun. but a geo-strategic heavyweight reforming the military and the by Syrian forces in late January. of the Syrian Kurds, who have areas, have rendered obsolete any national community’s ceed and corridors for humani- become another “toxic icing on In five years of war more than is Middle East correspondent Iboy, having drowned after a boat Geneva is aimed at making that The terror attacks by the self- currently ruling the airspace over security apparatus; free and fair proven to oversee effective ground chances for talks. It confirmed the inability to end or at tarian aid are not established. a half-baked diplomatic cake,” as 250,000 people have been killed; of the German weekly holding Syrian refugees capsized happen. proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in Syria. In turn, Russia signaled that elections; a rejection of any form half of the population has either troops against IS. Because they are opposition’s fears that this round Die Zeit. least suspend it has Western countries, but above all Frederic C. Hof, Barack Obama’s on the Turkish coast, caused According to the framework Paris last November lent diplo- it could imagine a Syria with- of terrorism and any presence been internally displaced or the Syrian outfit of the Turkish- of talks will play out as simply the shredded decades of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, former Syria advisor, described an international outcry. Heads agreed upon in Vienna last matic efforts a new urgency and out Bashar al-Assad, possibly by of foreign fighters; and Assad’s forced to flee the country. Kurdish PKK, Ankara had blocked diplomatic stage of Russia’s Syria progress in humani- have the leverage to restrain all Geneva II. Unless Putin realizes PRIVATE of state expressed their shock, November, the negotiations in an initial sense of optimism. All 2017. Washington responded with removal from power once the their inclusion in the “Riyadh list.” script: Help the Syrian army and tarian law. The UN anti-Assad forces that want to be that he needs more than just the French President François Hol- Geneva will lead to a ceasefire and foreign governments intervening a thumbs-up. transitional process begins. and those that have and will have Syrian civil society, on the other its Lebanese and Iranian allies to an end. De Mistura bravely Security Council has regressed part of the negotiating process. semblance of a political process, lande demanded a shared Euro- a national transitional govern- in Syria finally seemed to real- Saudi Arabia probably pulled The fact that one of the most to be fought with military means, hand, has had no real voice in any regain as much opposition terri- insists that the “proximity talks” to its worst levels of ideologi- But the Syrian regime is by far and that his intervention might pean refugee policy and other ment by mid-2016. By the end of ize that battling the IS is futile off the biggest success in the powerful rebel commanders, the such as IS and the Nusra Front. negotiation process up to now. Its tory as possible while at the same have not failed and will resume, cal trench-digging since the Cold the biggest perpetrator of crimes well experience mission creep, politicians called for new efforts 2017 the Syrian people will vote as long as the war between the run-up to Geneva. At a conference Saudi-backed Zahran Alloush, However, a few days after members, who run local councils, time push for a political “transi- but this seems highly unlikely. War. And the EU has shifted against its own population. the war will go on. This may be to end the war in Syria. on a new constitution and a new Syrian regime and anti-Assad in Riyadh in December the Saudi signed on to the Riyadh agreement the Riyadh conference Alloush schools and hospitals in cities and tion” that will keep the Alawite It may be useful to remember into full panic mode in the face Russia and Iran have the lever- in Moscow’s short-term interest. Five months later Syrians con- president. By then the first refu- rebel groups continues. government, with some help from gave the negotiation committee was killed by an airstrike, which villages outside the control of the security apparatus in power. It what is at stake; in the fifth year of its refugee crisis. Above all of age to restrain Assad, which Should the talks indeed resume by tinue to die in Syria and in the gees will have returned home and In Vienna, Iran was at last Ankara, forced the notoriously some badly needed credibility apparently was carried out by regime or IS, and who document is a script that Western countries of the war the statistics of suf- this hovers the threat of another would require considerable self- the end of February, the regime Mediterranean, many of them plans for rebuilding the country allowed to the negotiating table, divided Syrian opposition to agree among Syrians. It also provided Russian planes. Given his record crimes by all armed parties, have appear to have accepted. While fering in Syria have numbed the Paris-style terror attack. restraint. According to Syrian could be in a position to not have children. The images of their will be on the table. while the US finally granted Vladi- on a negotiation committee and the opportunity to draw a clearer of war crimes – though pale in been systematically shut out. Western governments insist that international community: more Against this background it was and international human rights to compromise on anything. And bodies no longer cause a stir. Some may call this schedule mir Putin what he had craved: a list of basic goals, which is line between Islamist forces that comparison to that of the Syrian So it comes as no surprise that IS in Iraq can only be defeated than 250,000 people killed; half tempting to stem the tide of bad organizations, Russian airstrikes Syrians will continue fleeing to They barely even make it into the overly optimistic, but the time- America’s acknowledgment that surprisingly free of Islamist zeal- can be part of a political process regime or IS – few tears were shed the initial sense of optimism if the Sunni population is given of the population either internally news with reports of progress have targeted hospitals, schools Europe. n

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The Security Times • Challenges The Security Times • Challenges Black Sea Distribution of Kurds Istanbul RUSSIA GEORGIA in the Middle East, Tbilisi Caspian 2012 Ardahan . ARMENIA Kurdish majority areas Bursa AZERBAIJAN Sea ANKARA Ezurum Erivan Baku Mixed population areas

Izmir TURKEY Tunceli Maku Mush TURKMENISTAN Malatya ASHGABAT

Elazig Ardabil Bojnurd Diarbakir Bitlis Van Konya Urfa Qochan Adana Tabriz

Mardin Urmia Rasht

Qamishli Sari Meshhad

Bijar Arbil Mahabad Aleppo Sinjar K h u r a s a n Mosul CYPRUS TEHERAN Kirkuk Herat Senandaj Sulaimani Hamadan

SYRIA Kirmanshah Khanaqin Qom Mediterranean Sea Q a i n a t LEBANON

Birjand Badra DAMASCUS BAGHDAD IRAN ISRAEL Isfahan

PALEST. AMMAN IRAQ AFGHAN.

CAIRO Ahwaz

JORDAN Kirman Zahidan EGYPT Shiraz © M. Izady, 1992-2016 By Dr Michael Izady at www.Gulf2000.Columbia.edu/maps.shtml KUWAIT KUWAIT © M. Izady, 1992-2016 S Secretary of Defense from Ankara; the Turkish gov- PAKISTAN DistributionAshton Carter of prophKurds- in the Middle East , AD 2012 ernment accused YPG units of esied in mid-January Persian carrying out ethnic cleansing that theKurdish self-pro majority- areas Kurds vs. Kurds against the Arab and Turkmen Uclaimed Islamic State’s hold on populations in the region. In mid- the northern IraqiMixed city of Mosulpopulation areas BAHRAIN January, Amnesty International would soon be broken and that Rivalry between the Syrian arm of the PKK and SAUDIthe Kurdish ARABIA autonomous government accused Barzani’s government of Kurds form the second largest ethnic group in Turkey (after the Turks) and Iraq (after the Shia). In Iran Kurds form the third largest (after the Gulf preparationsPersians and the Azeris)were whileunder in Syria way they for are the fourth (after the destroying thousands of homes Sunni Arabs, Alawites and Christian Levantines) in Erbil is undermining the fight against IS | By Markus Bickel an advance on Raqqa in Syria, of Arab former inhabitantsGulf of inOman the One of the fastest growing population groups in the Middle East, Kurds now total over 35 million people. Traditionally, they form the fourth largest QATAR with US special forces on the mid-2014; in November they con- ethnic tensions already threaten- (PYD) led by SalehRIYADH Muslim. The region of Rojava could become areas it liberated from IS. ethnic group in the entire Middle East after the Arabs, Persians and Turks. Like their most other neighbors, the rate of annual easeincrease a among 0 50 100 150 200 vergeKurds is ofdropping deployment drastically. to support quered what was until recently a ing to tear the Iraqi state apart. party has neither positioned itself the core of an independentABU DHABI Kurd- After being all too friendly Miles Medina Conical projections localKurds inmilitias. Rep. of Azerbaijan we expelled en massecenter from their of Yazidihome areas society, in Kelbajar the and Sinjar Lachin districtsA offurther Azerbaijan problem by the Armenian is invading that clearly on the side of the Sunni- ish state, Erdogan supports the towards the terrorist movement, forces in 1991. Turkmenistan denies having any Kurds on its territory, while Syria denies citizenship to about one-third of its Kurdish inhabitants, U.A.E. declaringTroops them answering to be alien squatters to IS andleader not include Mountains them in its demographic west of Mosul.censuses. Turkey is also involved in train- dominatedBy Dr Michael opposition, Izady at www.Gulf2000.Columbia.edu/maps.shtmlnor fully Kurdish autonomous region in Turkey is now comingOMAN down Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi have con- Politicians from countries in ing Peshmerga fighters. In late broken with the regime of Bashar Iraq (KRG) with all his might. harder on IS – after IS terrorists trolled Raqqa for nearly three the US-led anti-IS alliance saw 2015 that caused an outrage in al-Assad. Fighters from the Kurdistan carried out bombings with many years. Re-taking the city on the the re-taking of the strategically Baghdad, where it was regarded Any solution to the casualties in Ankara in October Euphrates could be the beginning important mountains in the as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty; conflict is additionally and in Istanbul in January. But of the end of IS rule over large Syrian-Iraqi border region as a Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al- complicated by Rus- Markus Bickel is the Cairo for Erdogan, more important than tracts of northern Syria. sign that Iraq’s second-biggest Abadi called on the UN Security sia’s entry into the war correspondent of the hitting IS is preventing a Kurdish- IMAGO/RALPH PETERS Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung The key to military success in city would soon be liberated. Council. last September – some- and the author of controlled territory on Turkey’s both Syria and Iraq appears to be But officials in Erbil continue to One victory in the war against thing Turkish Prime “Der vergessene Nahostkonflikt" southern flank, stretching from Kurdish forces. Without the sup- warn that any offensive on Mosul IS does not take Iraq any closer to Minister Recep Tayyip (The Forgotten Conflict Qamishli close to the Iraqi border, port of the Syrian-Kurdish People’s would have to be organized by the national unity. On the contrary Erdogan is bitterly in the Middle East, 2011). almost to Aleppo in northwestern Protection Units (YPG) – which central government in Baghdad. – there are too many forces with opposed to. The YPG is Syria. Once a key trade center in PRIVATE Turkey stumbles now control hundreds of kilome- The main attack would have to be diverging interests on both sides one of the groups ben- Syria, Aleppo is now regarded by ters along the southern border of conducted by government troops of the border, which itself is a efiting from Russian airstrikes on Workers’ Party (PKK) are holed Ankara as part of its sphere of Turkey – as well as help from the coming from the south, Kurdish product of the colonial era and Islamist positions in the provinces up in the Qandil Mountains on influence. Erdogan’s recklessness has jeopardized his country’s future | By Michael Thumann Iraqi-Kurdish Peshmerga, it will officials say – and Pentagon boss was drawn up one hundred years bordering Turkey. The advance the edge of the Iraqi Kurdish Gone are the days in which not be possible to drive IS out of Carter agrees. However, the areas ago in the Sykes-Picot Agree- they began in December from region. They have been the focus Erdogan allowed Iraqi-Kurdish urkey’s relations within of meticulous work by police ers received treatment in Turkish Turkey had a Kurdish question. Sunni powers in the region; military base on the peninsula, its proto-capitals. Carter pointed to the south of Mosul remain ment. The border runs right Kobanî westwards brings a con- of renewed airstrikes by Turkey Peshmerga units to cross Turkish the Middle East have and secret service agencies to hospitals while enjoying freedom He began a policy of reconcilia- during the Arab uprising Erdo- not far from the Iranian shores out that the aim was not to form under IS control. through the middle of the IS tiguous Kurdish region within since the middle of last year. territory to help the YPG fight- often been a story of root out these cells operating on of movement between Turkey tion and eventually a peace pro- gan sometimes acted as if he of the gulf and in the middle of a new divisions – rather, it was to So it could be 2017 before any caliphate. And the proxy war the realm of possibility. For this Barzani gave Erdogan the green ers encircled by IS in Kobanî. hope yet soon may Turkish soil. and Syria. cess that would hopefully end were the undeclared leader of huge underwater gas field shared strengthen America’s local allies: attack is launched on Mosul. The being fought between Iran and reason, too, US military support light for the military strikes, a Twelve months later, each side Tend in havoc. Today, Turkey What has landed Turkey in this These measures were aimed at the decade-old conflict with a the Muslim Brotherhood in Arab by Qatar and Iran. Erdogan’s “That means that a few key lead- move very much against Wash- is eyeing the other distrustfully; suffers from terrorist attacks by precarious situation and what a quick downfall for Assad; they new constitutional agreement on countries. Moreover, after King family and friends enjoy close ers and key individuals are trained ington’s will, as President Barack the brief historic alliance among the self-proclaimed Islamic State conclusions has the Turkish gov- were to help create a new Syrian more Kurdish autonomy within Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud business ties with Qatar, the site to a very high, exquisite level so The proxy war being fought Obama sees the YPG People’s Kurds is already history. Rela- (IS) and from an internal war ernment drawn thus far? government that would be depen- Turkey. assumed power in Riyadh in early of much new infrastructure as the that they can be enablers for the Defense Units – the Syrian arm of tions between Barzani’s Kurdistan against Kurdish guerilla groups The current situation cannot dent on Turkish guardianship However, when Erdogan’s party 2015, Erdogan established a close country prepares to host the 2022 entire unit.” between Iran and the US ever since the PKK – as the most important Democratic Party (KDP) and the in the southeast. The country has be understood without first lost a crucial election relationship with the new ruler. soccer World Cup. On the Syrian-Kurdish front, ground forces against IS after the PKK are worse now than they also become party to the region’s considering Erdogan’s missteps in June 2015, he used Turkey and Saudi Arabia coop- Erdogan had visited Saudi as on the hard-fought border the 2003 US invasion of Iraq is now Peshmerga. have been for years. When they treacherous Sunni-Shiite divide. over the past five years. When the specter of war as erate in Syria, have converging Arabia shortly before its execu- between the Iraqi part of Abu being fought in Syria as well. With the help of US airstrikes, liberated Sinjar in November, the Nobody was able to predict such Egyptian masses began to revolt Michael Thumann an electoral strategy. views on the treacherous roles tion of the Shiite cleric Nimr Bakr al-Bagdadi’s caliphate and YPG fighters have even been able two sides quarreled over who had devastating developments when against President Hosni Mubarak is Middle East correspondent He responded to local of Russia and Iran, engage in Baqir al-Nimr and the subsequent the autonomous Kurdish region Once more, the Kurdish forces to drive IS out of some of its posi- played a greater role in the battle. the Arab uprisings began five in January 2011, Erdogan, then of the Hamburg-based weekly attacks by the PKK close business relations, and both destruction of the Saudi embassy run by President Masoud Bar- tions along the Euphrates and to Rivalry between the Kurdish Die Zeit. years ago. prime minister, was caught by with a completely have their problems with Barack in Tehran in early January 2016. zani, this strategy appears to be don’t fit with either side. re-take the Tishrin Dam. And groups may yet cause problems In early 2011 Turkey was a surprise. Two months earlier he overblown military Obama’s cautious approach After the collapse of relations working. His Peshmerga forces with the liberation of Monbij for the anti-IS alliance, as the widely respected country com- had been awarded the Muammar NICOLE STURZ campaign. Erdogan in Syria and his reluctance to between Saudi Arabia and Iran, are barely more than 30 kilo- Iraqi army is weak – it only just the US ever since the 2003 US for the YPG is a thorn in Turkey’s near the Turkish border, they Sinjar Mountains are of strategic fortably situated between the Gaddafi Human Rights Award by knew the renewed commit US troops to the common Turkey’s conspicuous silence meters from Mosul, the capital managed to free the western Iraqi invasion of Iraq is now being side. interdicted one of the supply lines importance for both Iraq and EU, oil-rich Russia and a rela- Libya’s eccentric ruler; Erdogan and support. Such was Erdogan’s war would neither eliminate the fight against Bashar al-Assad. can be read as tacit support for of Nineveh Province. Peshmerga provincial capital of Ramadi from fought in Syria as well. Once That also explains Erdogan’s via which the Islamist militants Syria. The oil-rich districts of tively peaceful Middle East. The enjoyed cordial relations with plan of action, which thus far at PKK nor strengthen Ankara’s Erdogan and the Saudis have Riyadh rather than for Tehran. units, armed with MILAN anti- IS – and then only with mas- more, the Kurdish forces don’t strategic partnership with the obtained supplies from Turkey Syria’s Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor Turkish economic powerhouse many dictators in the Middle least has not been successful. rule in the southeast, but he was found common ground over their In its struggle for regional tank missiles and M-36 assault sive destruction. Kurdish troops fit with either side. They are president of Iraq’s Kurdish region, until the end of 2015. In the provinces can be reached from granted visa-free travel to many East, including Gaddafi and Syr- Bashar al-Assad’s survival sure it would reaffirm his party’s sectarian agendas, but not over supremacy with Iran, Saudi rifles provided by the German marching into Mosul – whose led by the YPG on the ground Masoud Barzani. Unlike in north- middle of 2015, the YPG took there just as easily as from the visitors while entertaining good ia’s Bashar al-Assad. Turkey had derailed Erdogan’s Middle East dominance in a new election in their particular religious affili- Arabia is increasingly asking its army, have advanced this far since inhabitants are mostly Sunni and are represented politically ern Syria, where the Turkish pres- back the border town of Tell lands west of Mosul – still con- Security_Times.qxp_290x130 01.02.16 16:42 Seite 1 relations with most of its neigh- been pursuing a balanced for- strategy. Assad has prevailed November. He was right, yet the ations. Erdogan, although very Sunni neighbors for their loyalty the successful campaigns by IS in Arabs – would also increase the by the Democratic Union Party ident fears the PYD autonomous Abyad, drawing sharp criticism trolled by IS. n bors. These factors contributed eign policy, with an emphasis on due to strong support from Iran war rages on. conservative, embraces Sunni in the conflict. Along with Saudi to Turkey’s sunny image, making sound economic relations, while and Russia and the absence of The Kurdish battleground Islam, a far cry from the Wah- Arabia, Bahrain and Sudan have it a beacon of hope for many in avoiding to take sides in quarrels a concise American strategy for utterly complicates matters for habism practiced in Saudi Arabia. severed diplomatic ties with Iran, the region. between Syria and Iraq or Iran Syria. By 2014 Erdogan had to Turkey and its new allies in their Yet their shared opposition to while the United Arab Emirates Turkey’s fall stems from some and Saudi Arabia. This posture have realized that his battle for fight against IS. Erdogan consid- Shiites and Alawites has been has recalled its ambassador from drastic miscalculations by Presi- of non-alignment was one reason supremacy in the Levant had ers the PKK-allied Syrian-Kurdish a powerful factor in uniting Tehran. dent Tayyip Erdogan as much for Turkey’s economic success. As of now, Turkey has not as from the country’s changing However, things began to openly sided with Saudi Arabia environment. Erdogan’s quest change as Mubarak’s fall caused Turkey’s clout in Syria on issues involving Iran. If the for absolute power has divided Erdogan to rethink his position. Sunni-Shiite divide deepens, how- Turkey while the war in Syria has Was he not one of the very few and the Middle East is severely constrained ever, Erdogan may align his coun- greatly destabilized regions just democratically elected leaders in try even more strongly with the beyond its borders. The country the region? Was he not a pious by its parochial campaign against Saudi-led Sunni camp against the is neighbor to a civil war of indefi- Muslim with great popularity as Persian power. Turkey and Iran nite duration and unforeseeable a leader in the Arab world? Was the Kurds along its southern border. are already at odds over Syria and consequences; some 2.3 million a successful Turkey not in a posi- the Shia-dominated government refugees had settled in Turkey by tion to lead the revolutionized failed. He again needed the back- militia groups his fiercest enemies the aims of Erdogan and King in Baghdad. the beginning of this year. IS ter- Sunni Arab states through their ing of a strong ally. The United next to Assad. However, the Salman. With the lifting of interna- rorists recently targeted German transition? States exerted pressure on Turkey Kurdish groups in Syria are fight- While the past year has seen tional sanctions, Iran is entering tourists in the heart of old Istan- Step by step Erdogan distanced to end all support and tolerance ing primarily against IS. Thus, the the emergence of a Saudi-Turk- regional markets as a new com- bul and Turkey’s tourism sector himself from the autocratic Arab of IS terrorists. Since 2014 Ameri- US has two powerful allies in its ish alliance, more striking is the petitor, offering a range of indus- MUNICH HAS COUNTLESS SIGHTS TO OFFER – THE HOTEL BAYERISCHER HOF IS ONE OF THEM is sure to suffer dire repercussions rulers, yet his fallout with Bashar can bombers and Western jets struggle with IS, Turkey and the recent warming of Turkish-Israeli trial goods similar to those from as a result. al-Assad in 2011 proved to have have departed from İncirlik air Kurdish Democratic Union Party relations. Israel shares the Saudi Turkey. The economies of Turkey Since 1841, the privately managed, award-winning Hotel Bayerischer Hof is valued internationally for its elegant atmosphere and the amiable, highly personal service. The highest levels of The IS threat has proved far the biggest impact – on both base for their missions against (PYD) in Syria, which seem to view on Iran, the Muslim Broth- and Iran have been in competi- luxury come here as a standard with its stylish 340 rooms including 65 suites set in the heart of Munich, within walking distance of the renowned museums Kunsthallen, art galleries and the from easy to contain. Turkey’s Turkey and the Arab world. IS targets inside Syria. The US is fight each other as often as they erhood and other regional issues. tion for quite some time. Should Opera, as well as of the finest shopping areas. The hotel offers a wide choice between five restaurants (Gourmet, Mediterranean, Polynesian, Bavarian and Spa Cuisine), among them the border with Syria cannot be When Assad began waging war also trying to convince Erdogan engage IS. Turkey’s clout in Syria Now, against the backdrop of the this rivalry be extended to the restaurants Atelier (awarded with 2 Michelin stars) and Garden, re-styled by Axel Vervoordt, the famous interior designer. Guests can select between 40 function rooms with capacities from sealed entirely as refugees cross against his own population with to take a more accommodating and the Middle East is severely Syrian war and the Sunni-Shiite geopolitical and military arena, 10 up to 2,500 persons, six bars, the Night Club with live Jazz and the luxury cinema astor@Cinema Lounge, also designed by Axel Vervoordt. French architect Andrée Putman designed the into Turkey on a daily basis. hopes of saving his rule, Erdo- stance towards the Kurds at home constrained by its parochial cam- rift, even Erdogan and Netan- Turkey’s foreign policy would Blue Spa, the wellness oasis over three floors, with a panoramic rooftop terrace. The latest addition is the Roofgarden, designed by French design studio Jouin Manku. As the Turkish government has gan became his enemy. Even if and thus contain Turkey’s devas- paign against the Kurds along its yahu are seeming to find common suffer yet another severe blow. We are very proud and delighted to welcome the MSC guests since 1963 and wish the very best for this important conference this year. tolerated the movement of IS Turkish forces were not directly tating internal front, the brutal southern border. ground. The border between Turkey and Promenadeplatz 2- 6 Fon +49 89.21 20 - 0 www.bayerischerhof.de fighters into Syria in the past, involved in the fighting, Turkey fight against the Kurdish PKK. To make matters worse, Turkey At the same time, Turkey is Iran has gone almost unchanged D-80333 München Fax +49 89.21 20 - 906 [email protected] the country is still home to IS supported rebel groups such as This is clearly a war of choice. has recently made new allies that becoming more involved in the for five centuries. The last thing cells, particularly in towns close the Free Syrian Army and various It was Erdogan who, as prime may cause it even more trouble. Gulf region. Along with Qatar, Turkey needs now is more trou- to the border. It will take years Islamist groups. Jihadist IS fight- minister in 2005, recognized that Erdogan has teamed up with Turkey has agreed to build a ble at its eastern edge. n 22 February 2016 February 2016 23 Innovative solutions The Security Times • Challenges NextThe Securityfront: Times • Challenges Libya for the highest IT Efforts to install a unity government will require international military backing | By Mirco Keilberth security requirements. n Feb. 15, 2011, a After conquering the port city of ments and politicians have lost handful of people Sirte last summer, IS has managed their reputations through nepo- Attacks on computers and networks are on the rise. took to the streets to fan out to the oil fields of the “oil tism and corruption,” writes the Cyber crime and data theft have dramatic consequences of Benghazi to dem- crescent” south of Ajdabiya. Sev- journalist Taher Zaroog. Mis- onstrateO against the arrest of a eral pipelines and oil tanks were set rata’s civil rights initiative has ranging from enormous economic damage to loss of image civil rights lawyer. Fathi Terbil on fire in late January when small earned him a victory no one would and customers. Years of work can be destroyed in minutes. had been seeking clarity at long reconnaissance groups advanced. have thought possible. Many of last regarding the fates of 1,600 That shocked US Secretary of State his more than 200 militias have Islamists whom Muammar al- John Kerry into demanding imme- pledged to no longer shield their Rohde & Schwarz supports government, society and business Gaddafi had ordered secretly killed diate action: “The last thing in the own members if they commit in 1996. The veteran dictator’s world you want is a false caliphate crimes, but to hand them over to with IT solutions and encryption technology made in Germany. regime responded to the protest with access to billions of dollars of police and the courts instead. with tanks that were destroyed oil revenue,” Kerry told the confer- Many IS commanders in Sirte Ensure your security at at the gates of the city by French ence in Rome. and Sabrata have a history of warplanes under a UN mandate. The extremists, whose supply being imprisoned. The Gaddafi www.rohde-schwarz.com Exactly five years later, former route runs through the Mediter- regime often incarcerated devout revolutionaries and Islamists are ranean from Turkey to the port leaders in the notorious Abu menacing the lives and societal of Misrata, have also gone on the Salim prison; these men now model of the liberal citizens who offensive in Benghazi. Because of command militias, including the stood up for the rights of others. the arms embargo in force since Omar Mukhtar unit in Sabrata. At first people were enraged. 500 2011 and the split into eastern Moreover, many former followers policemen and soldiers have now and western halves, Libya’s army of Gaddafi have joined IS after been killed. “Beng- having been imprisoned by revo- hazi, like the rest of lutionaries in the aftermath of the Libya, is fighting for war in 2011. its sheer survival,” Mirco Keilberth, Consider, for instance, the says the city’s mayor, based in Tripoli, Libya, former officer from Tawergha. is the North Africa correspondent Tarek Awadh Belga- for several German publications. After three years in solitary con- cem al-Arfi. finement and the destruction of If the fighting does his hometown of 30,000, he has

not stop soon, eco- PRIVATE nothing left to lose. He freely nomic collapse could admits that he now fights for IS ensue and 400,000 refugees stands little chance against the in Sirte. “The foreign IS com- could be on the run. It is clear multinational jihadi militia. manders are fully aware we do not that senior commanders of the Army general Khalifa Haftar has share all their ideas. They accept self-proclaimed Islamic State repeatedly pledged to completely that we want to defend our cities (IS) who have arrived from Syria liberate Libya’s second-largest against the Misratis and avenge intend to seize control of Africa’s city. But with the conquest of the the crimes of the revolutionaries. ¸SITLine largest crude oil reserves. And strategically important “Pepsi fac- We hope that airstrikes will bring IMAGO/ZUMA PRESS the failure of a UN peace plan tory” two weeks ago, the bearded the people onto our side.” ETH Encryptor Migrants crossing the border between Croatia and Serbia at Bapska, September 2015. seeking a compromise between and Afghan-clothed fighters of IS Should the UN special envoy for the rival governments in eastern and Ansar al-Sharia exposed Haf- Libya, Germany’s Martin Kobler, and western Libya could end tar’s boasts. Twenty-two soldiers ultimately succeed in implement- with the province of Cyrenaica were killed in Laithi district alone ing the peace plan devised by declaring independence. So great by the detonation of a remote- Bernardino Leon, which would The Balkans: no war in sight are the fears of the internation- controlled bomb. essentially establish a unity gov- ally recognized parliament in the After the failed attempt by a ernment, it will have to be safe- eastern Libyan town of Tobruk UN-recognized government under guarded by foreign troops. Illegal But the migrant crisis can create further obstacles to the integration process | By Ivan Vejvoda that the militias in Tripoli, 1,000 Fayez al-Sarraj to begin work in militias are to be disarmed and kilometers away, could take over Tripoli, the international diplo- disbanded. Without jobs, their he Balkans have been The Western Balkans constitute both EU and NATO integration societies that suffered and paid under the aegis of the EU High has been trying to drive a wedge the government and “state coun- mats have been facing rising pres- members could pose a threat making headlines again only one piece of this complex (except, at the moment, Serbia such a huge price. No one wants Representative Catherine Ashton in the region between those who cil” yet to be established. sure. The first cabinet, with 33 to the returning government. since last year’s esca- puzzle. The clear and immediate when it comes to NATO). Only to revisit such times, no matter in 2013, and now carried forward are opposed to Euro-Atlantic inte- Nigerian President Muham- ministers, was rejected last week Together with Kara’s militia, up lation of the refugee goal is to stem the flow of refugees Croatia has made it into both how domestic political rhetoric by her successor Federica Mogh- gration and those who see their madu Buhari has said the secu- by a parliamentary majority. Now to 5,000 Italian and 1,000 Brit- Tcrisis. Chancellor Angela Merkel, and migrants and to keep them in NATO and the EU; the others are may sound. erini, testifies to the beneficial and future as lying firmly with the EU rity of his own country depends the Libyan negotiation teams are ish military trainers could set up speaking recently to her fellow the vicinity of the countries from moving toward this goal, some Even the migrant crisis will not soothing effects of the EU’s soft and NATO. Russia’s key relation- largely on the fate of Libya. “The meeting alongside international something akin to the Green Zone party members, warned that a where they have fled, be they in clearly with great difficulty – in lead to war, though it can clearly power in the region. ship with the region is based on ungoverned Libyan Sahara has military planners in the Moroccan in Baghdad to protect against ter- closing of borders in Europe, spe- the Middle East or Africa. The particular Macedonia (largely due exacerbate tensions and create Germany’s initiative in the pro- its energy and gas exports. transformed the Sahel into a vir- resort of Skhirat. rorist attacks and be stationed at cifically between Germany and eradication of the root cause in to its dispute with Greece over further obstacles to the integra- gression toward enlargement, the The migration crisis has shown tual arms bazaar that threatens If Libyan politicians and inter- strategic locations throughout the Austria, could lead to conflict the Middle East is badly needed its name) and Bosnia and Herze- tion process. In fact, compared Berlin Process begun in August that, for all intents and pur- to spread to the Central African national diplomats fail to pres- country. and war in the Balkans. This but nowhere in sight. govina. Montenegro, Serbia and to other parts of the world the 2014, has been of utmost impor- poses, the Western Balkans are Republic and Nigeria,” he told ent a viable Libyan government Meanwhile, IS is using social statement had multiple address- Geography and geopolitics Albania have achieved tance. At the same time the US a de facto member of the EU the European Parliament. soon, the result will very likely be media to distribute propaganda ¸SITGate L500 Next Generation Firewall ees: the German public as well matter. The Balkans are not the candidate status and firmlybacks the Balkans’ integra- and more broadly of the Euro- Tripoli as coalition partners, who were periphery, as is sometimes said; the first two are tion into the EU. Atlantic arena. The migrants enter Misrata being warned what a collapse of they are the inner courtyard of already negotiating NATO is also a significant sta- an EU member state, Greece, then Sabrata Tobruk Current military Ivan Vejvoda Tawergha Benghazi the Schengen open-border regime the European Union, surrounded their entry. is senior vice president bility factor with its on-going pass mostly through Macedonia Bani Walid situation in Libya could bring about internally as by EU and NATO member-states. The challenges in the of the German Marshall Fund mission in Kosovo and as guar- and Serbia to enter another EU as of Jan. 6, 2016 of the United States. Sirte well as in the immediate European This Southeastern European pen- region are undoubt- antor for the Belgrade-Pristina member state, Croatia. No con- Ajdabiya neighborhood. Her speech was insula – the Western Balkans – edly grave: very low agreement. Furthermore, the crete solution is possible with- Controlled by the Council also a warning to the leaders and remains the last non-integrated economic growth, PRIVATE recent invitation to Montenegro out the full involvement of these of Deputies and Libyan states in the Balkans to cooperate part of Europe. This is unfinished high unemployment to become a NATO member state countries. National Army rather than fall prey to mutual business for the EU and a seri- rates and the stagnation or decline Balkans are an oasis of peace. sent a strong message to all actors War should never have occurred Controlled by the New General recriminations. ous test for its credibility. If the of living standards coupled with And there is a reason for this: the in the region. The two-day visit in Europe at the end of the 20th National Congress and Libya In concert with the EU, Ger- EU is unable to help spur the a continuing brain-drain and sev- existence of the European Union to Serbia last November by the century. It did – and Yugoslavia Shield Force many is muddling through this enlargement process to the West- eral unresolved regional issues. and its enlargement policy. NATO secretary general was a disappeared in a self-inflicted, vio- LIBYA Controlled by the Islamic State crisis. For the moment there ern Balkans, it is hard to grasp However, war will not return to This leads to a second observa- notable event. lent conflict that would ultimately Cyrenaica of Iraq and the Levant is a worrisome lack of a much how capable it is in dealing with the Western Balkans. The conflict tion: Notwithstanding the current Moscow’s new assertiveness result in its division into seven needed, unified strategic approach other challenges. in the 1990s, which ended with crisis, the soft power of the EU was demonstrated by its actions countries. The region of the West- Ghat Controlled by the Benghazi, Derna and Ajdabiya Shura to everything from asylum poli- The EU Summit in Thessaloniki 78 days of bombing of the then is alive and well in the Western in Ukraine. Russia’s annexation ern Balkans and its citizens must Councils cies and relocation schemes to in June 2003 opened the pathway Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Balkans. The Belgrade-Pristina of Crimea and its violation of find an accelerated path into the ALGERIA enhanced external EU border to full membership for the Balkan is much too present in the minds agreement signed by the prime Ukraine’s sovereignty have been a EU while respecting all its rigor- Controlled by local Misrata controls. countries. All have committed to of the political leaders and the ministers of Serbia and Kosovo serious cause of concern. Moscow ous criteria for membership. n district forces Controlled by the Tuareg forces NIGER CHAD Better controls of arms exports! The German government decides to introduce post-shipment controls / By Dr. Wolfgang Böttger, CEO Dynamit Nobel Defence The entire region has also a second military intervention in videos of the Libyan resistance become a reservoir of IS fighters. Libya. Indeed, it may already have fighter Omar Mukhtar, with For more than a year now, train- begun. Since December, unidenti- hopes of stirring fear among Trip- n the initiative of the Federal Minister Marking and traceability of weapons Dynamit Nobel Defence (DND) labels every DND goes one step ahead in the direction of ers at IS camps near Sabratha, fied warplanes have been - drop oli residents of possible NATO for Economic Affairs, Sigmar Gabriel, the delivered weapon with a company serial number. “Smart Weapons” by using RFID Smart Tags. These Ghat and Sirte have been churn- ping precision bombs over Sirte airstrikes. Mukhtar, a hero of the OGerman government decided on the key The UN-PoA program of the United Nations (Pro- Along with the batch number that is perma- are small memory chips, which can be written with ing out confident jihadists from and Ajdabiya. The Libyan media people, was hanged by the Italian points for new rules for checking the end-use of gramme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate nently imprinted on the tube, the manufacturer, any data and which have an antenna. The memory young Tunisians, Algerians and is attributing the deaths of three IS colonial authorities in 1931. armaments a few months ago. In future, the export the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in date of manufacture and customer can also be chips are supplied with energy from an external Egyptians without other pros- commanders in Sirte to a hidden The majority of Libyans simply of war weapons (hand guns and the small arms), All Its Aspects, UN Document A/ reconstructed uniquely. How- reading device via this antenna and the data can pects. Meanwhile, men like Fathi sniper. want to see an end to the fight- to third countries should be additionally checked CONF.192/15) was adopted at the ever, the serial number and the be read contact-free. Terbil have long ago withdrawn NATO officials are evidently ing and to the flow of refugees. on-site in the destination country („post-shipment UN Assembly for small arms in printed batch number can also These tiny components can be inserted into the from public view. Following the seeking partners to help bring the Many will join the conflict party controls“). 2001, with the aim of providing be removed through mechani- fibre structure of the launching tube in such a way successful parliamentary elections situation under control. Alliances that achieves this goal, the Sarraj states with guidelines for con- cal processing without com- that mechanical removal without damaging the of 2012, international diplomats with militia leaders such as Abdul- government, Haftar’s army in Under the existing legal situation, the end-use of trolling small arms. Thereafter, promising the functioning of weapon is not possible in this case, too. have turned their attention to rauf Kara, whose prisons detain Benghazi, local militias or IS. The armaments is verified ex ante during the approval the International Instrument to the weapon. other conflicts. numerous critics of the National US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs process, on the basis of end-user certificates. Export Enable States to Identify and This technology can also be used for any type of IS is attempting to fill the power Congress (GNC), have proved of Staff, General Joseph Dunford, applications are rejected in case of doubt regarding Trace, in a Timely and Reliable This foil is incorporated into hand-held fire arms. vacuum along the southern Medi- controversial. The powerful Mis- is therefore looking for a fast and the safe end-use at the recipient’s. Manner, Illicit Small Arms and the fibre reinforced structure of terranean coast. Delegates at an rata militia, with whom British decisive military strike in conjunc- Light Weapons (International the launching tube and can be The weapons can thus be marked with all rel- anti-IS conference in Rome in commandos are said to be already tion with the political process – in Such controls are basically provided for in the Tracing Instrument ITI, A/60/88) DND bar code for small arms clearly read in an X-ray image evant data (manufacturer, country of origin, cus- early February warned that more collaborating, have been accused the form of an official request for OSCE and Wassenaar Arrangement (OSCE, Docu- was adopted at the UN General Assembly in 2005; and identified. Non-manipulable marking of DND tomer, place of delivery etc.) during delivery and than 5,000 fighters had found by the tribes in Sirte, Tawergha assistance in the fight against the ment on Small Arms and Light Weapons. FSC. this instrument particularly deals with the mark- weapons is thus possible; it cannot be removed the data can be read contact-free during a sub- their way from neighboring states and Bani Walid of committing sev- jihadists. For now, there is little DOC/1/00/Rev.1, 2000; Wassenaar Arrangement, ing of small arms and documentation of their without destroying the weapon. To remove this sequent check. It is also possible to write new, and Syria to the training camps. eral war crimes during the 2011 reason for optimism. Using the “End-user Assurances Commonly Used: Consolidated whereabouts. The International Tracing Instrument marking, it would be necessary to damage the updated data on the Smart Tags when the recipient Besides the nearly 300 kilometers conflict. Several thousand people most common American acro- of coastline, IS may not control a are being held in Misrata prisons nym for the jihadists, Dunford Indicative List”, 2005) in the guidelines for end user defines the minimum requirements for marking high-pressure tube of the weapon, which would records warehouse stocks. Needless to say, the data contiguous area as in Iraq, but its without trial. warned: “Unchecked, I am con- certificates. small arms and tracing stolen and lost weapons. make the weapon unfit for use. can also be saved in an encrypted form. network of camps and smuggling “In the eyes of the Libyan cerned about the spread of ISIL routes is intricately meshed. public, nearly all political move- in Libya.” n 24 February 2016 25

Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan The Jan.Security 2011: The spark Times of rebellion leaps• Challenges from Feb. 14, 2011: Tens of thousands of Shiites, who constitute 70 percent of the island kingdom’s population, Feb. 18, 2011: Thousands of young people demonstrate against President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, demand The Jan.Security 25, 2011: The Timesuprising against • theChallenges corrupt February 2011: Baghdad is the scene of protests Jan. 7, 2011: The first demonstration against Tunisia to Algeria. The government swiftly defeats demonstrate in the capital, Manama, against the Sunni royal family. They demand a constitutional monarchy reforms and measures against corruption, unemployment and electoral fraud. Hundreds are arrested and the and oppressive regime of Hosni Mubarak begins. against corruption, mismanagement and inad- corruption, inflation and social injustice occurs in the uprising through violence and social conces- and a more representative government. opposition is stripped of its right to assemble. Millions gather at Cairo’s Tahrir Square demanding equate electricity supplies under the government a village south of Amman. More street protests Democracy’s sions. Poverty, unemployment and dissatisfaction the end of the regime. of Shiite President Nuri al-Maliki. Following the follow, which also include demands for electoral are rampant. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who Mar. 14, 2011: King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa calls on the help of neighboring Saudi Arabia, whose army February 2013: Parliamentary elections produce a clear victory for Guelleh’s party alliance, Union pour la withdrawal of US troops in December 2011, the reform leading to a true constitutional monarchy. led the country out of a brutal civil war against suppresses the protests with 2,000 troops. Amnesty International reports “torture and excessive violence Majorité Présidentielle (UMP). Protests against irregularities lead to police violence and many fatalities. Feb. 11, 2011: Mubarak resigns. Sunni-Shiite conflict begins to overshadow all King Abdullah II bin al-Hussein responds promptly, against protesters.” Hundreds of opposition members are arrested. the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) and has pursued Small, arid Djibouti hosts US and French military bases; German forces based here also take part in the fight Late 2011 / Early 2012: The first free elections other problems. Maliki accuses Vice President pledges reforms, dismisses Prime Minister Samir a policy of national reconciliation, lifts Algeria’s Jun. 2015: Shiite opposition leader Sheikh Ali Salman is sentenced to four years in prison for “inciting against piracy and terrorist groups. in Egypt catapult the Muslim Brotherhood to Tariq al-Hashimi of organizing attacks against Rifai and launches a national dialogue that brings short spring state of emergency only in February 2011. A disobedience and hatred.” The sentence is protested by Iran and even the US, which homeports its Fifth power. President Mohamed Morsi, a weak head of Shiites. Hashimi flees to Turkey and calls for to the table representatives of political parties, hoped-for democratization fails to take place. Fleet in Bahrain. Summary: One of the world’s poorest countries remains under authoritarian rule. state, fails to overcome economic stagnation and resistance to Maliki. professional associations, business leaders and Political and economic power in the commodity- secure democratic standards. civil society. Stabilization is achieved. Five years ago it was not only the opponents of rich country remains firmly in the hands of army Summary: An anti-Shiite regime under the firm hand of the Saudis. July 2014: The ethnic Kurd Fuad Masum becomes clans and the former unity party, the FLN. Jul. 3, 2013: Following mass protests against Iraqi president and appoints the Shiite Haider Jan. 23, 2013: After renewed, violent protests dictatorships and despots, of corruption and the Islamists, the army deposes Morsi. Security al-Abadi to form a government. Maliki resigns. Yet against cuts in fuel subsidies, King Abdullah holds May 10, 2012: The FLN wins parliamentary forces kill hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood sup- the new, more moderate regime fails to defuse early parliamentary elections and grants parlia- mismanagement, who were cheering on demon- elections in the wake of the Arab Spring and Tunisia Syria porters following the coup. Morsi is arrested. the entrenched enmity between Sunnis and ment modestly expanded powers. The Muslim continues governing with a coalition partner. Lebanon Shiites. Brotherhood boycotts the election. A series of strations in the Arab world. Democrats in the Iraq May 2014: Elections are held without the reform bills are passed; others are postponed. Apr. 17, 2014: Bouteflika, 77 years old and participation of the Muslim Brotherhood. Army From January 2014: IS overruns parts of Iraq, Many Jordanians are dissatisfied with the royal West likewise imagined an approaching summer seriously ill, is elected to a fourth term as head Morocco chief Abdel Fattah el-Sisi takes power. Repres- massacres Yazidis and Shiites and advances family’s authoritarian rule but fears of instability of state. Thanks to revenues from oil and gas Jordan sion, human rights violations and a police state toward Baghdad. On Jun. 29, 2014, Abu Bakr outweigh all else, given the chaos in neighboring of democracy. They could scarcely have exports, the population is placated through state Kuwait ensue. The economy fails to recover. An offshoot al-Baghdadi proclaims the “Caliphate of the countries and the 1.2 million Syrian refugees largesse. Yet the falling price of oil forces the gov- of the Islamic State (IS) jihadist militia launches Islamic State.” In the summer of 2015 Iraqi forces, already in the country. been more wrong. As our status report shows, ernment to impose cuts to the generous welfare Algeria repeated attacks in Sinai. together with the Kurdish Peshmerga and the system and, possibly, to enact political reforms. Libya international, US-led anti-IS coalition, succeed in Summary: Security takes priority. the results were sobering, and their effects still Egypt Bahrain Summary: The ancien régime returns and the pushing the jihadists back. Summary: Algeria is a powder keg. situation is worse than before 2011. ripple across Germany and all of Europe in the Saudi Arabia Summary: Oil-rich Iraq remains a torn land while ongoing refugee crisis. facing collapse. Oman Mauretania Libya Feb. 17, 2011: On a “Day of Rage,” protests begin against the regime of Muammar al-Qaddafi and Yemen quickly escalate into civil strife following brutal attempts at suppression by the authorities. A Tunisia National Transitional Council gains control of the eastern city of Benghazi. Qaddafi’s forces advance Jan. 4, 2011: The self-immolation and death of with air support on the rebel capital. Morocco Djibouti 26-year-old vegetable dealer Mohamed Bouazizi sparks the Jasmine Revolution, with its slogan

Mar. 17, 2011: The UN Security Council passes Feb. 20, 2011: Thousands of young Moroccans Syria “Work, Freedom and Dignity.” a resolution mandating military action to protect follow a Facebook post by two compatriots and Oman February 2011: The regime of President Bashar Lebanon Jan. 14, 2011: Protests against corruption, Yemen civilian lives and establishing a no-fly zone. Ensu- demonstrate on a “Day of Dignity” for reforms and al-Assad responds to the first demonstrations in Feb. 27, 2011: Following demonstrations for more expensive food and despotism bring down the Jan. 27, 2011: The first major demonstration Feb. 27, 2011: With its extreme religious and ing NATO air strikes turn the tide and enable the democracy. King Mohammed VI takes the wind the southern town of Daraa with arrests, beatings Kuwait equitable distribution of oil and gas revenues Saudi Arabia regime of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who for democratic change and against the regime political fragmentation, Lebanon, too, experiences rebels to begin advancing. out of the sails of the “February 20th Movement” and torture. Protests then spread to multiple and against corruption and itinerant workers, flees the country. of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Multiple mass Feb. 18, 2011: Several hundred participants its first demonstrations demanding reforms – and by promising to push forward long-delayed Mar. 11, 2011: As Shiites in Bahrain rise up towns and cities across the country. Security against the country’s special system of propor- Aug. 23, 2011: The rebels conquer Tripoli and especially in the port city of Suhar, Sultan Qaboos protests ensue. The Shiite Houthi rebels in the demonstrate against corruption. The most ardent constitutional reforms. The media begins referring in protest against their Sunni king, a “Day of forces react with extreme brutality against the Oct. 23, 2011: Election of the Constitutional tional religious representation in the government. Qaddafi’s Bab al-Azizia fortress. promises the creation of 50,000 public sector country’s north join the movement. The capital, demonstrators are non-Kuwaitis, who demand Mauretania to a “gentle revolution.” Rage” brings demonstrations to several Saudi demonstrators, shooting and kidnapping opposi- Assembly; human rights activist Moncef Marzouki Bad weather reduces the number of participants jobs, a higher minimum wage and social welfare. Sana’a, sees clashes between tribal militia and citizenship. The protests in the wealthy Gulf Oct. 20, 2011: Rebels capture Qaddafi in Sirte, cities against the royal family and its autocratic, tion members. becomes interim president. A democratic multi- to a few hundred. Lebanon already saw mass January 2011: Following the suicide of a despair- Jun. 17, 2011: A new constitution approved by He reshuffles the cabinet and vows to transform government troops in which more than 120 state lead in November to the resignation of the where he dies amid yet-unexplained circum- radical-Sunni regime. The government responds party system emerges with a relatively free press protests for democracy in 2005 in the Cedar ing businessman in front of the presidential referendum stipulates the king’s appointment the regime from an absolute to a constitutional Summer 2011: Anti-government activists begin people are killed. government under Nasser Mohammed al-Sabah. stances. Multiple armed groups then vie for power by firing on the crowds, ordering stiff repression and strong trade unions. The National Dialogue Revolution that followed the assassination of the palace in Nouakchott, peaceful demonstra- of the head of government from the party with monarchy, which has yet to occur. The Sultan, arming themselves, forming militias that include His successor is Jaber al-Mubarak al-Hamad al- and influence. IS establishes a territorial presence and banning demonstrations by the Shiites, who Quartet repeatedly rescues the democratization November 2011: After 30 years in power Saleh Sunni former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. It led to tors protest against corruption, slavery and the most seats in parliament and the separation who has ruled since 1970, is highly popular as a the Free Syrian Army. The terrorist network, Sabah, also a member of the family of Emir Sabah in Libya, its first outside of Syria and Iraq. constitute up to 13 percent of the population of process and is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize is forced to step down. He hands power to Vice the end of Syria’s military presence in Lebanon the absolute exercise of power by President of the executive and judicial branches. Yet the reformer and modernizer. An enlightened despot, al-Qaeda in Iraq, intervenes under the name Nusra al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, in power since 2006. the oil-rich Eastern Province. in 2015. President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi. but could not overcome the country’s religious 2014: Two rival governments are established. Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz. Amnesty International monarchy retains most of its privileges. he abolished slavery while in 1996 enshrining in Front, from which the jihadist militia Islamic State 2012: Two elections in which the opposition wins the constitution civil rights, freedom of religion Jan. 2, 2016: The leader of the protests, Ayatol- polarization and ultimately failed. Islamist militias supported by Turkey and Qatar condemns abuses in addition to slavery, including Nov. 25, 2011: The moderate Islamist Justice (IS) splinters off. Jan. 26, 2014: A new constitution is approved. 2014: The transitional government under Hadi are declared invalid by the constitutional court. dominate Tripoli and the west, while the interna- random imprisonment, systematic torture and the and discrimination bans. However, political parties lah Nimr Baqir al-Nimr, is executed. The human fails to bring peace to the country. The Houthis In the following election in July 2013, which the Late 2011: The Shiite Hezbollah militia begins and Development Party (PJD) wins and its leader are forbidden and the National Consultative Coun- rights situation remains parlous: restricted right of Summer 2014: IS proclaims itself a “caliphate.” Oct-Nov 2014: First parliamentary and presiden- tionally recognized, Egyptian-backed government disappearance of opposition supporters. The gov- Abdelilah Benkirane becomes premier; the protest take over large areas of Yemen and Sana’a. opposition again narrowly wins, 26 new deputies preparations to intervene in Syria’s civil war, is located in Tobruk in the east. IS, based in Sirte, ernment responds by reducing prices for staple cil consists essentially of the Sultan while only assembly and bans on political parties, large-scale Syria’s civil war mutates into a proxy conflict of tial elections. The first head of state following enter the 50-member chamber, including four openly siding with the Assad regime from the movement implodes. But the clique surrounding serving an advisory function. Rumors surround- surveillance by the religious police, censorship foreign powers including Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia the revolution is the secular politician Béji Caïd March 2015: The Houthis advance on the port city holds the center. foods – such as bread by up to 30 percent – and the king remains and continues to enrich itself; women, a first. As ministers are also allowed spring of 2013. The conflict in neighboring Syria pledges reforms. The protests rapidly subside. ing his health have widely circulated since the and custodianship of women by men. Given the and Russia. The Assad regime loses control over Essebsi, age 88. Yet Islamists threaten the young of Aden and storm the presidential palace. Presi- to vote on legislation, the government retains increasingly overshadows the domestic political December 2015: The rival governments in Tripoli civil rights and social justice are put on hold while 75-year-old monarch spent months at a Munich lack of alternatives, substantial numbers of young much of the country. The long-suppressed Kurds democracy while youths suffer from poverty and dent Hadi flees to Saudi Arabia. A Saudi-led coali- its majority. As the Austrian newspaper “Der situation, occasionally spilling over into violence. and Tobruk approve a UN peace plan to form Jun. 21, 2014: Aziz again wins an absolute major- half of all young people neither complete school hospital in 2014. With no children, his succession Saudis join the jihadists, fight in Syria or mount found the autonomous region of Rojava. Millions joblessness. Since January the country has wit- tion launches a military intervention, consisting Standard” put it, “An obedient parliament for the One million refugees flee to Lebanon. a unity government, but its implementation is ity in the presidential election amid the boycott of nor have a job. remains uncertain. attacks in their homeland. of Syrians flee from the war; more than 250,000 nessed its biggest wave of protests since 2011. primarily of air strikes against Houthis. Thousands Emir of Kuwait.” initially blocked. larger opposition parties. are killed. are killed, millions flee and famine ensues. Summary: Destabilization in the shadow of the Summary: Disillusionment and unfulfilled Summary: Oman is stable but the future Summary: The deathly silence continues yet the Summary: The sole success story of the Arab Summary: (Nearly) everything stays the same. Syrian conflict. Summary: If the unity government fails, IS wins. Summary: The regime remains unchallenged. promises. Little hope for the country’s youth. holds risks. country seethes beneath the surface. Summary: Unending civil war. Spring – and very fragile at that. Summary: Civil war becomes a proxy war.

BERLIN RESIDENCE AT ITS BEST 26 February 2016 February 2016 27

The Security Times • Challenges t is an amusing contrast to The Security Times • Challenges Seas and the Indian Ocean. The see a large group of Chi- South China Sea is a vital part nese tourists strolling along of President Xi’s strategic and PRC: Precarious Republic of China? Ginza Street in Tokyo on geopolitical scheme – a gateway Ia shopping spree while 2,000 to ruling half the seven seas. kilometers to the southwest hun- China’s top priority has been Beijing confronts an increasingly complex international risk map while enduring the most challenging period dreds of disguised Chinese gov- to reclaim or build artificial of its domestic economic transformation in decades | By Sebastian Heilmann and Mikko Huotari ernment and fishing boats cross islands in the Spratly archipel- into Japan’s territorial waters ago and to construct ports and here has never been a Third, despite superficial calm around the Senkaku Islands on The age of ambition airfields for military use. China period in which China’s and Beijing’s symbolic summitry, a daily basis. has also announced its forma- diplomats were more the skepticism of regional leaders In 1895 Japan used the principle Japan is upgrading its defense capabilities in response tion of missile troops while active on the global dip- regarding the prospects of stabil- of ownerless territory to incorpo- to Chinese intimidation | By Masataka Suzuki building a second aircraft car- Tlomatic stage than they were over ity is increasing. A region char- rate the archipelago into the city rier. The next goal is to set an the last two years. In 2014-2015 acterized by all-out hedging does of Ishigaki in Okinawa Prefecture. ADIZ over the South China Sea President Xi Jinping traveled the not provide fertile ground for The government had followed all and permanently deploy military globe more than almost any of Chinese leadership. Meanwhile, the proper procedures to ascer- aircraft in the zone. Washington his international peers. Since Xi recent steps by the US to achieve tain that there had been neither immediately countered with a came to power, Chinese lead- its long-anticipated “pivot to evidence of valid control of the Freedom of Navigation Opera- ership has substantially stepped Asia,” realigning allies and shap- islands by any other state nor any tion using war vessels and a fleet up its foreign policy ambitions, ing new economic partnerships objections raised against Japan’s of aircraft. heavily expanding the scope of with the Trans-Pacific Partner- sovereignty. The San Francisco China’s recent movements have its activities in the region and ship (TPP), have been relatively Peace Treaty signed 56 years later dramatically changed the security its reach on the global stage. By successful. In contrast, Chinese in 1951 between Japan and 47 environment in Asia. I would altering long-standing traditions attempts to enmesh the US in a allied powers placed Okinawa propose that Japan respond with of relative restraint and key pri- “new type of great power rela- under the administration of the the following measures: add one orities of its foreign policy, Beijing tions” are being rebuffed by the US while recognizing Japan’s sov- more escort flotilla; expand its is engineering a new course in US administration. ereignty. History documents that fleet of advanced patrol planes; global affairs. Fourth, fractures in its domes- the islands have remained under and upgrade its island defense The list of recent policy suc- tic economic engine challenge the effective control of Japan since capabilities, supplementing the cesses is long and the sheer weight China’s foreign policy outlook 1895. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier of China’s growing economic, and tie the resources of its lead- In 1972 China drastically shifted More than a rock, the US currently deploys in Japan diplomatic and military capabili- ers to Beijing. In the long run, its security policy to restore diplo- more than an island: with another forward carrier with ties will continue to deepen its the painful economic transforma- matic ties with the US and affirmed The Senkaku Islands a home port somewhere between global footprint. Yet in addition tion might well reinforce China’s the US-Japan Security Treaty. At in the East China Sea. Australia and West Japan. to the strong counterforces of gravitational pull, but it calls the time, China entered into a PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/KYODO/MAXPPP In 2015 Japan revamped its international competition and into question the sustainability rapprochement agreement with begun using government vessels stating that it would not pre- security and independence. The Based on my experience at security legislation. For the first rising security tensions, China’s of China’s ambitious outreach. Japan, followed by the “Japan- to trespass into Japan’s territorial clude using military force against US-Japan Security Treaty was both strategic and ground levels, time since the war it will now expanding role faces fundamental A foreign policy built on financ- China Treaty of Peace and Friend- waters surrounding the islands. Japan’s “invasion,” depending on the smartest option for the coun- I remain convinced that Japan’s be able to “use force” when a challenges that are deeply rooted ing and investment promises will ship” signed in 1978. It is believed Tokyo is determined not to the circumstances. try. The key consideration has military capabilities in the East foreign country with close ties to in its domestic development prove extremely vulnerable to that Beijing feared that a serious ignore Beijing’s arrogant attempt Over three decades I was been, and still is, to maintain China Sea and its vicinity are Japan suffers an armed attack, path. China is transform- likely turbulence in China’s debt- Sino-Soviet confrontation could to change the status quo through involved in formulat- sufficient to cope with most pos- which in turn threatens Japan’s ing into a precarious global ridden financial system. escalate to nuclear war. It was a force or coercion in the area. ing Japan’s Medium- sible contingencies, and that Bei- survival. This is more-or-less power as it confronts an China’s economic transition matter of life or death for China I have recently had an oppor- Term Defense Pro- jing would face great difficulties equivalent to the internationally increasingly complex inter- PHOTO IMAGO/UPI has already become a disruptive to realign itself in the diplomatic tunity to inspect Japan’s Coast grams for ground, were it to extend its operations recognized principle of collec- Masataka Suzuki national risk map while All active on the international factor. A looming arena; as a result, Japan was tar- Guard Headquarters in Ishigaki maritime and air is a former State Secretary from the East China Sea into the tive self-defense. This legislative enduring the most challeng- global diplomatic trade war and depression trends in geted as a pseudo-ally. Senkaku and was encouraged to see how forces, establishing for Defense for Japan. Pacific. reform will also enable Japan ing period of its domestic stage: President global energy and commodity mar- was not discussed. professionally they perform national defense bud- “One Belt, One Road” is a to contribute more meaningfully economic transformation in Xi Jinping with kets are the result of a precipitous The islands had been owned by their difficult tasks calmly and gets and organizing slogan coined by Xi Jinping, to UN Peacekeeping operations US President Barack decades. Crucially, the way industrial slow-down and overca- a Japanese individual before the serenely amid escalating dangers. training and career in reference to the ancient Silk under its newly defined rules of Obama (top), PRIVATE in which the PRC leader- Russian President pacities in China. Global uncer- government purchased the archi- The chief of the headquarters development for Road, to promote his ambition engagement. It will undoubt- ship translates and exports Vladimir Putin on tainties due to non-transparent pelago in September 2012, insti- explained that his troops rep- members of the Japan Defense the most advanced air defense for China to control politically, edly lead to an enhanced role domestic policy approaches the Tiananmen and questionable policy decisions gating extensive anti-Japan riots resent Japan and the Japanese Agency (now called the Ministry capabilities, focus on anti-sub- economically, financially and for Japan in securing peace and to the international realm Rostrum in Beijing only magnify the negative effects throughout China. The Japanese people, who respect law and jus- of Defense). During the Cold marine operational capabili- martially a mass of land encom- deterring conflicts within the will prove the ultimate test (left), Turkish of China’s broad slowdown. By embassy was assaulted and Japa- tice and cannot afford to bend it. War Japan had the difficult task ties and strengthen preventive passing the whole of Asia, the Asia-Pacific. of its aspirations to global President Erdogan deepening financial integration nese companies in China were China, on the other hand, of establishing and maintaining capabilities in blocking vessels Middle East, North Africa, and Japan is entering an era in which (lower left) and leadership. Egyptian President and relaxing exchange-rate poli- stormed, looted or set on fire by has unilaterally imposed an Air highly effective defense capa- and submarines from passing Eastern and Central Europe. The it will work harder for world The scale and potential Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. tics, China is emerging as a source frenzied mobs. Since the nation- Defense Identification Zone bilities under tight budgetary through the three straits around slogan also underscores his cher- peace and respond accordingly impact of China’s for- of dizzying volatility. In contrast alization of Senkaku Beijing has (ADIZ) that includes Senkaku, constraints to guarantee peace, the Sea of Japan. ished desire to rule the China to its upcoming challenges. n eign policy re-orientation to its stabilizing effect during the became visible to most Asian and global financial crises observers when China over the last 15 years, today’s Chi- unveiled its new geo-eco- nese domestic decision-making is nomic masterplan over the a potential hazard to

course of 2013 and IMAGO/XINHUA regional and global 2014. The Silk Road financial stability. initiative is Xi’s pet Finally, an often- project intended overlooked key to redirect China’s factor determining diplomatic and China’s future role BERLIN RESIDENCE AT ITS BEST commercial energy is how successful it to new economic, will be in translating trade and trans- its policy approaches port corridors in to the world. Key Southeast Asia and to this translation Living in the historical heart of Berlin with an unique and iconic view on the new castle of Berlin. Eurasia, stretching is communication. For more information about an incomparable residence on Schinkelplatz, please contact us. out to the Middle However, broad- East, Africa and casting to the outside Europe. The initia- world in the same +49 (0) 30 364 102 118 | www.berlin-schinkelplatz.de tive promises USD propagandistic way hundreds of bil- as the leadership lions of investment communicates to its for Beijing’s infra- domestic audience IMAGO/ZUMA PRESS IMAGO/ZUMA structure foreign will not be success-

policy and already NEWS IMAGO/KYODO Simultaneously, China is con- The pace and rhetoric of the ful. Its current “grand narrative” impacts strongly on tinuing to push through its vision new foreign policy activism under approach and public diplomacy the region’s political and security the PRC’s aim to become a lead- ing from Ukraine to Afghanistan, of a regional economic and secu- Xi Jinping are impressive. Yet overdrive is simply hard to swal- landscape. ing power in global cyberpolitics. Syria and the Middle East more rity order that runs counter to China’s newly emerging inter- low for most pragmatic policy In the last two years, Beijing At the same time, China’s finan- broadly. A series of changes in core US interests. Indeed, despite national reach is precarious for makers in other countries. has become a key hub for global cial and monetary advances are defense policy, together with new US countermeasures and interna- several reasons: In terms of potentially successful and regional diplomacy, using challenging key building blocks anti-terror and security laws, have tional concerns, it is striking how First, the domestic capacity policy export, the best example is its home advantage to set the of the Western-centered inter- prepared the policy framework rapidly and unabashedly Beijing for sustainable crisis-resistant China’s focus on infrastructure agenda for major international national order and are already and legal grounds for a more pro- has been moving forward in the regional or even global leader- financing for development. Yet summits including Asia-Pacific leading to an overhaul of inter- nounced security posture beyond South China Sea, including the ship is only just in the making, a the danger here is obvious: strik- Economic Cooperation (APEC), national financial institutions and China’s borders. The moderniza- pursuit of land reclamation activi- fact well recognized by China’s ing the wrong balance between a refurbished regional security global business practices. With tion of the Chinese military is ties on an unprecedented scale. leadership. The current over- policy- and profit-orientation, forum, the Conference on Inter- skillful diplomatic maneuvering, progressing rapidly, while forces In relations with Russia, despite centralization of power in the China might repeat mistakes that action and Confidence Building China’s diplomats have won the are undergoing extensive restruc- lingering distrust China has con- Chinese system will prove a have contributed to its current in Asia (CICA), and the G20 in support of 57 countries for Bei- turing to embrace an increasingly solidated an increasingly asym- double-edged sword, facilitating economic worries at home. The 2016. At the same time, China- jing’s development finance push global mission. metric partnership bolstered by necessary reforms but in itself a environmental, social and finan- sponsored forums with Southeast to finally establish the China-led Underpinning all of these trends energy and investment relations, substantial risk to resilient policy- cial sustainability of core foreign Asian, Eastern European, African Asian Infrastructure Investment are pronounced shifts in the arms sales and cooperation in the making. policy projects are highly ques- and Latin American leaders have Bank (AIIB) in early 2016 in Bei- regional sphere and the global Shanghai Cooperation Organisa- Second, Beijing’s renewed stra- tionable. Even less promising is become major annual gatherings, jing. Two months prior to this, balance-of-power matrix. At the tion (SCO) and BRICS frame- tegic focus on its neighboring China’s new high-profile cam- usually providing the grounds for the IMF accepted the Chinese core of the leaders’ new foreign works. Meanwhile, the tone and areas has met with significant paign embedded in the Belt and new Chinese investment projects. currency into the elite opposition, with com- Road Initiative for “international China’s diplomats have also group of reserve cur- petitive dynamics in capacity cooperation,” which aims initiated a debate about rein- rencies that make up Asia spreading from to reduce China’s overcapacities vigorating the UN system, still the basket of Special Sebastian Heilmann Mikko Huotari the considerable mili- through joint projects with devel- a core element of Beijing’s vision Drawing Rights, sig- is president of the Mercator directs the MERICS program tary and cyber build- oping economies across the globe. of future global order. It is, of naling a crucial turning Institute for China Studies on geo-economics ups to infrastructure From a European perspective (MERICS), Berlin. and international security. course, no coincidence that Chi- point in a long march development. Ques- China currently still has the ben- nese officials have recently taken towards the restructur- tions of strategic posi- efit of the doubt while it experi- leadership positions at key inter- ing of the global mon- MARCO URBAN WWW.MARCO-URBAN.DE MARCO URBAN WWW.MARCO-URBAN.DE tioning vis-à-vis the ments with different frameworks national institutions that Beijing etary order. PRC have become and approaches to implement- considers important for the PRC’s As a result of expanding policy outlook is a regional policy content of China-EU relations is major domestic conflict lines ing its new foreign policy. Bei- global expansion, including the commercial interests and stra- with China firmly set to become increasingly set by Beijing’s initia- in virtually all Asian countries. jing’s leaders are in the process World Bank, International Avia- tegic considerations, Chinese the dominant economic and mili- tives. Beyond the growing lure of Xi’s new grand-scheme regional of learning geo-economics on a tion Organisation (IAO), Stan- foreign policy is also more fre- tary power in Asia. Intimately Chinese investment in EU member policy increasingly clashes with global scale with self-reinforcing dardisation Organisation (ISO) quently adopting intervention- linked to this priority, Beijing states and financing promises for the economic presence of other effects. In addition to its exist- and Telecommunications Union ist approaches. It is increasingly is increasingly able to play the key EU projects, Chinese diplo- major regional players such as ing weaknesses, new vulnerabili- (ITU). New initiatives such as mobilizing forces to protect its “big boy’s game” with the US, macy has been dividing up the Japan, Russia and India, whose ties incurred alongside its global the World Internet Conference – citizens and interests abroad while obtaining significant and favor- continent in ways that fit its own tolerance, if not support, China expansion will be key determi- held for the first time in 2015 in trying to position itself as a medi- able agreements in areas such as diplomatic preferences, such as needs to realize its vision of an nants of China’s growing ambi- Wuzhen, China – are evidence of ator in international crises rang- cyber and climate cooperation. the 16+1 framework. integrated Asia on Chinese terms. tions. n 28 February 2016 February 2016 29

The Security Times • Challenges The Security Times • Challenges Global arms sales Mission not Sales of arms and military services worldwide have decreased for the fourth consecutive year. According to international arms industry data published by the Stockholm Inter- accomplished national Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), total arms sales have decre- The Taliban’s temporary conquest of Kunduz ased by 1.5 percent in real terms between 2013 and 2014. Companies made plain the Afghan army’s continuing need based in the US and Europe have seen lower sales, while companies for training and outside expertise located in other regions of the world have grown. US companies still By Johannes Leithäuser make up 54.4 percent of the Top 100. Western European companies’ arms y now the international mili- Yet these plans were upended in north- sales decreased by 7.4 percent in tary deployment in Afghanistan ern Afghanistan, in the city of Kunduz, 2014 to 26 percent. was supposed to have pretty under the Bundeswehr’s regional com- much wrapped up. For 2016, mand based in Mazar-I-Sharif, and where Despite difficult national economic accordingB to the original planning, the Germany’s operational commitment conditions, sales in Russia’s arms NATO-led mission “Resolute Support” in the form of the Kunduz “Regional industry continued to rise and now would still have a troop presence only Reconstruction Team” began more than constitute 10.2 percent of the world’s in Kabul. The regional deployment cen- a decade ago. The Bundeswehr evacuated total. ters, or “spokes,” in Afghanistan’s north Kunduz in 2013 and pulled back to its (Mazar-I-Sharif), east (Bagram), south base in Mazar-I-Sharif. Soon, reports Top 20 arms-producing and military (Kandahar) and west (Herat) would no started coming in that the Afghan forces services companies in the world longer exist. – the armed forces, the quasi-military excluding China, 2014 Instead, NATO and its partner states National Police and local police units Arms sales (US$ m.) have postponed – indefinitely – their – had lost control over parts of the complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. province, although Afghanistan had 1 Lockheed Martin 37 470 Germany’s parliament actually voted in assumed “full security responsibility.” 2 Boeing 28 300 December to modestly expand the con- Last October, in a brazen operation, sev- 3 BAE Systems 25 730 tingent of German troops there by 130 eral hundred Taliban fighters stormed the 4 Raytheon 21 370 soldiers to 980. city. This surprised an Afghan army that 5 Northrop Grumman 19 660 The NATO governments, including had neither been monitoring for signs IMAGO/XINHUA German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s of an imminent attack nor was able to IMAGO/XINHUA 6 General Dynamics 18 600 coalition parties and part of the opposition mount any effective, immediate resistance troops, excepting special bilateral agree- highlighted where strategic and tactical Joining up: Will he help make NATO and operates the Camp Marmal base complete a first step in the building up of NATO from the various regions of Giving up: Taliban fighters attend a 7 Airbus Group 14 490 Greens, view this as a strategic correction because of a holiday weekend. ments that the Americans had made with advice was still needed, but also provided troops expendable in the near future? there with 20 partner nations (which of the Afghan Air Force. Afghanistan is now regarded as a mis- su