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Gender in the 2008 Presidential Election a DISSERTATION

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Gender in the 2008 Presidential Election a DISSERTATION The Politics of Palin: Gender in the 2008 Presidential Election A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA BY Melanie Faith Burns IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Lawrence R. Jacobs, Adviser October 2009 © Melanie Faith Burns 2009 Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Maze and her many inhabitants. Eric Ostermeier, who read every page, probably more than once, and stuck beside me as I navigated the highs and lows that come with a project of this magnitude. Applejacks, the handsomest and regal-est kitten I have ever known, who is always there to hug or nap away my problems. Zoot, who will always hold a special place in my heart, no matter how many times he bites, scratches, or claws me. The Maze is my home, and you three are my family. I look forward to many more years of singing, dancing, and laughing. My parents, Gerald and Kathy Burns, provided support and encouragement over many, many years. My dad’s never-ending arsenal of jokes has kept me laughing, while my mom provided me with some of the best gifts I could ask for – my love of reading, my desire for adventure, and my brown eyes. My sisters have made life much more fun. Thank you Andi (for whipping me into shape – or at least trying to), Julz (for being a fantastic travel partner), and Ziggy (for supporting my tv habit). A special thank you to my soon to be in-laws, Arlene and Terry Ostermeier, whose encouragement has meant so much to me. I can’t wait to officially be part of the family. Thank you to my peeps: Angela Bos and Monica Schneider, who pulled me through prelims and connected me to a world outside political science; Henriet Hendriks, the best mentee a girl could hope for; Monica Lake, the most unconditionally supportive person I’ve ever known; and Alina Oxendine, with whom I enjoyed the most wonderful ‘working lunches,’ though we didn’t always get much work done. Finally, thank you to my committee members, Adviser Larry Jacobs, Joanne Miller, Kathryn Pearson, and Chris Federico. Your support and encouragement throughout this process was absolutely vital to the project and for that I am eternally grateful. i Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to Erie, my friend, my partner, my bocheecho. ii Abstract Sarah Palin, the Republican nominee for Vice President in the 2008 election, was only the second major party female nominee for the office of vice president in U.S. history and the first for the Republican Party. While criticized extensively by the left and the conservative intellectual elite, Palin’s conservative credentials were never questioned and she was embraced by many grass-roots conservatives. Palin’s strong conservatism and Republican partisan credentials stand in stark contrast to most female politicians, who overwhelmingly and increasingly hail from the Democratic Party in both state and national politics. The central puzzle of this project is to determine how voters react to the competing stereotypes that conservative female Republican candidates, like Sarah Palin, must endure. The gender stereotype – that females are considered to be more empathetic, caring, and compassionate – is in conflict with the partisan stereotype – that Republicans are believed to possess more strength and leadership. Which stereotypes do voters apply, and how does that differ based on their own gender or partisan identity? Specifically, how do voters’ own gender and party identification shape ratings of a conservative female candidate’s traits and ideology, as well as the impact of each on vote choice and candidate evaluation? Two public opinion surveys are utilized to answer these questions – a survey of Minnesotans and a national survey of women. The Minnesota data revealed that a citizen’s gender and party identification shape their perceptions of Sarah Palin’s traits, ideology, and overall evaluations. While party identification is the strongest predictor, gender did have some impact. Furthermore, the differences in how Palin is rated on her traits and ideology had significant impacts on overall evaluations of her, as measured by presidential iii vote choice and evaluations of her performance in the vice presidential debate. Nationally, women’s party identification shape their perceptions of Sarah Palin’s traits and policy issue agreement. In addition, there is a strong relationship between party identification and overall evaluations, but this relationship is overshadowed when trait ratings or policy position agreement are included in the model. The strong, significant effects of party identification on overall evaluations disappear on measures of Palin’s favorability measure and opinions of McCain’s choice of Palin, but remain significant on vote for McCain. Both traits and policy position agreement have a significant impact on overall evaluations of Palin. And while the effects of party remain directly significant on vote for McCain in the presence of these variables, it appears they are indirectly significant for evaluations of McCain’s choice of Palin as his vice presidential running mate on issue positions, and, to a lesser extent, trait ratings. Different traits and policy issues have significant impacts on McCain’s choice of Palin for Republicans and Democrats. iv Table of Contents List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................................ ix Chapter 1: Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 The Gender Gap ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Stereotypes ........................................................................................................................................... 10 Implications.......................................................................................................................................... 15 Going Forward .................................................................................................................................... 18 Chapter 2: Republican Women in a Partisan Era ................................................................................. 23 Female Representation in Elite Politics .................................................................................... 23 Partisan and Ideological Polarization........................................................................................ 25 Female Congresswomen in a Polarized Era ............................................................................ 29 Public Opinion towards Female Republicans ........................................................................ 34 The Gender Gap .................................................................................................................. 35 The Partisan Gap ................................................................................................................ 36 Partisan Gender Gaps ....................................................................................................... 37 Gender Partisan Gaps ....................................................................................................... 38 Female Candidates on the National Stage ............................................................................... 39 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 46 Chapter 3: Minnesotans’ Opinions of Sarah Palin ................................................................................ 62 Trait Ratings and Ideology Assessment ................................................................................... 64 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 64 Results .................................................................................................................................... 66 Candidate Evaluations ..................................................................................................................... 71 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 71 Results .................................................................................................................................... 72 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................. 76 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 79 Chapter 4: Opinions of Sarah Palin Among the Nation’s Women .................................................. 91 Trait Ratings and Ideology Assessment ................................................................................... 94 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 94 Results ...................................................................................................................................
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