Education Insider Midterm Elections Flash Survey

November 6, 2014

1 www.whiteboardadvisors.com INTRODUCTION Why Insider?

The Process Survey Education Insider is a monthly report that uses a proprietary model to cut Insiders through the noise and provide real-time insights on national education policy trends, debates, and issues—from a small group of approximately 50-75 Insiders who are close to the process. We conduct a survey of these influencers, which includes their candid opinions and insights, to provide a Analyze unique perspective on K-12 and higher education. The views expressed do not Results necessarily represent the viewpoints of Whiteboard Advisors or any of its employees.

Who Are the Insiders? Report Influential leaders who are shaping federal education reform, including Insights individuals who have served or are currently serving as key policy and political “insiders,” such as:

• Current and former White House and U.S. Department of Education Drive leaders; Action • Current and former Congressional staff; • State education leaders, including state school chiefs and former governors; and • Leaders of major education organizations and think tanks, as well as other key influentials.

2 INTRODUCTION Executive Summary

54% of Insiders say the • Education Insiders express slight optimism that both K12 and Republican win in the Senate will higher education policies will become higher priorities make post-secondary education a with Republican control of the Senate, though agreement between higher priority. the President and Congress is unlikely. Insiders see attention Exactly half of Insiders think gainful employment regulations as a possible area of focus. Senate newcomers are unlikely to • Insiders repeatedly cite Senator Lamar Alexander, the presumptive impact education policy or it’s too chair of the HELP committee, as the key driving force behind both soon to tell. Echoing October’s K12 and higher education legislation in the Senate. With the report, Insiders said Lamar political winds in his favor, Alexander may have the support he Alexander will “lead the charge.” needs to gain traction on key education policies. But Insiders do 82% of Insiders believe not see the newly elected senators as having a great impact on gubernatorial outcomes will hinder education policy. Common Core adoption, while • Alexander is not likely to get much help from Senate newcomers, 79% said school choice efforts only a few of whom may play a key role in education policy issues. gained support. • Based on the general trend for governors’ races across the country, More than 70% of Insiders said Insiders see school choice and teacher tenure reform efforts Torlakson’s win in was gaining more traction. Insiders believe the Common Core significant, calling it a key victory standards, conversely, face a significant setback. for teacher’s unions in the midterms. • Insiders see Tom Torlakson’s victory in California as a significant win for teacher’s unions amidst an otherwise challenging election cycle.

3 INTRODUCTION Table of Contents

SENATE OUTCOME 5

GUBERNATORIAL IMPACT 10

CALIFORNIA SUPERINTENDENT RACE 11

STUDENT FINANCIAL AID 13

4 SENATE OUTCOME Federal K12 Policy Will Not Be Put on The Back Burner, Could Be a Higher Priority

Some Insiders express optimism that Senator Alexander’s leadership and 5.7% the new political dynamics could lead to movement on ESEA reauthorization. Others caution that education will take a 45.7% backseat to more pressing 48.6% issues, and that even if legislation is passed, it is unlikely President Obama would sign the measure into law.

Lower Priority No change Higher Priority

Question: Collectively, how will the outcomes of the Senate races affect federal K12 education policy?

5 SENATE OUTCOME Insider Insight: Senate Outcome & K12 Policy

Comments from Insiders: • “We now have two education committee chairs who have clear vision of the federal role in education and the foundation for a strong working relationship. There will be a focus on reining in inappropriate federal over-reach (waivers, regs, etc.), expansion of charters and choice, and possibly an attempt to update at least the accountability provisions of NCLB.” • “Really? Something will actually pass now? R's have control but it's not a 60 vote majority. More gridlock.” • “ESEA reauthorization is one place where there might be some opportunity for an agreement. As a Democrat, I would just say that Lamar Alexander knows how to do deals.” • “Alexander will be itching to get moving on a bill; Patty Murray will be pragmatic and wants to get Washington state out from under the yoke of NCLB and the Duncan waivers. Expect a bill before the Cherry Blossoms bloom and Obama will sign it.” • “Don't think it changes priority, but does make it more likely for some movement now that Republicans have to show they can govern.” • “While I believe that Lamar Alexander is the right person to run the committee now, there is no sense of urgency to act in anything, particularly ESEA. Obama and Duncan don't want it. The GOP won't waste political capital on an issue that largely splits their conference.” • “The differences between all factions are as great as ever.” • “ESEA reauthorization has a better chance of getting signed into law. White House pleas not to put a bill on the floor in the Senate will now fall on deaf ears.” • “Education won't be a high priority for either party. While some bills may come out of Committee, I doubt any of the major legislation will be reauthorized.” • “Congress has bigger fish to fry with the president than education.”

6 SENATE OUTCOME Federal Higher Education Policy Likely to Gain Momentum

A slight majority of Insiders think higher education issues will become a higher 8.6% priority in the Senate. Despite Senator Alexander’s strong interest in the topic, a law is unlikely. Insiders point to 37.1% gainful employment as a likely first target for 54.3% Republicans amidst a broader push to curtail the role of the federal government in providing accountability. Lower Priority No change Higher Priority

Question: Collectively, how will the outcomes of the Senate races affect federal higher education policy?

7 SENATE OUTCOME Insider Insight: Senate Outcome & Higher Education Policy Comments from Insiders: • “Because we now have two chairs who believe the federal role in education should be minimized, there may be action to increase transparency for consumers/public in higher ed, but reduction in the federal role in creating accountability/ratings systems for higher ed.” • “Loan programs lose steam.” • “Alexander is keen on moving as many bills as possible, and as former [University of Tennessee] president, Secretary of Ed, and Governor who spent a lot of time on higher education, he is in a prime position to get something done.” • “As a longstanding priority for Senator Alexander, higher education is likely to move towards the top of the pile of things that get major attention.” • “More likely that Republicans will try to roll back gainful employment regulations, but that's likely all that would happen.” • “I'm not sure the politics around higher education change much. I think some movement is likely, but a bill won't be signed into law in the 114th.” • “Republicans are going to flex their muscle on the gainful employment regs recently released by US Dept. of Ed.” • “RIP gainful employment, teacher prep regs, college rankings, etc.”

8 SENATE OUTCOME Tillis & Sasse Early Favorites to Impact Education Policy, Though Insiders See Little Role for Most Newcomers

The general consensus among Insiders is that few if any newcomers are likely to make a significant impact on education policy, especially given Alexander’s expected Thom Tillis Ben Sasse Joni Ernst leadersh