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Political Warfare in the Second Island Chain

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Political Warfare in the Second Island Chain Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2019-12 SMART POWER VS. SHARP POWER: POLITICAL WARFARE IN THE SECOND ISLAND CHAIN Culligan, Michael T.; Burris, David K. Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/64127 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS SMART POWER VS. SHARP POWER: POLITICAL WARFARE IN THE SECOND ISLAND CHAIN by Michael T. Culligan and David K. Burris December 2019 Thesis Advisor: Douglas A. Borer Second Reader: Leo J. Blanken Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Form Approved OMB REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) December 2019 Master's thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS SMART POWER VS SHARP POWER: POLITICAL WARFARE IN THE SECOND ISLAND CHAIN 6. AUTHOR(S) Michael T. Culligan and David K. Burris 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This study investigates China’s use of non-military instruments of statecraft in Micronesia in order to assess the Chinese government’s motives and methods for greater regional presence. By exploring China’s use of diplomacy, economic measures, and information operations in the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau over the past three decades, this thesis seeks to explain China’s current and aspirational maritime security objectives beyond the South China Sea and contribute to debates on the Chinese Communist Party’s motives and approaches for gaining strategic advantages vis-à-vis the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. The research in this thesis leverages concepts of modern political warfare, theories of state-driven geo-economics strategy and psychological effects-based operations to assess China’s engagements in Micronesian states as indicators of great power competition with the United States. It finds that China’s approach to political warfare in the region has become increasingly focused on leveraging state-owned enterprises and economic inducements toward the fishing industries of lesser-developed Micronesian states in order to secure access, grow capacities for displacing American placement and influence, and impose long-term costs and risks to the sustainment of U.S. forward security positions. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Micronesia, Oceania, political warfare, information warfare PAGES 181 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. SMART POWER VS SHARP POWER: POLITICAL WARFARE IN THE SECOND ISLAND CHAIN Michael T. Culligan Major, United States Army BA, University of Pittsburgh, 2007 David K. Burris Major, United States Army BS, U.S. Military Academy, 2008 MS, Webster University, 2012 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INFORMATION STRATEGY AND POLITICAL WARFARE from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2019 Approved by: Douglas A. Borer Advisor Leo J. Blanken Second Reader Kalev I. Sepp Chair, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This study investigates China’s use of non-military instruments of statecraft in Micronesia in order to assess the Chinese government’s motives and methods for greater regional presence. By exploring China’s use of diplomacy, economic measures, and information operations in the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau over the past three decades, this thesis seeks to explain China’s current and aspirational maritime security objectives beyond the South China Sea and contribute to debates on the Chinese Communist Party’s motives and approaches for gaining strategic advantages vis-à-vis the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. The research in this thesis leverages concepts of modern political warfare, theories of state-driven geo-economics strategy and psychological effects-based operations to assess China’s engagements in Micronesian states as indicators of great power competition with the United States. It finds that China’s approach to political warfare in the region has become increasingly focused on leveraging state-owned enterprises and economic inducements toward the fishing industries of lesser-developed Micronesian states in order to secure access, grow capacities for displacing American placement and influence, and impose long-term costs and risks to the sustainment of U.S. forward security positions. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY ..........................................................1 B. PURPOSE OF THE STUDY ....................................................................2 C. IMPORTANCE ..........................................................................................2 1. Maintaining Relations ...................................................................2 2. Maintaining National and Collective Security ............................3 3. Maintaining the Rules-Based International Order .....................5 D. RESEARCH QUESTIONS .......................................................................6 E. ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY .......................................................6 F. HYPOTHESES ..........................................................................................7 G. HINGE ASSUMPTIONS AND DEFINITIONS .....................................8 H. LIMITATIONS ..........................................................................................9 II. LITERATURE AND CASE SELECTION .......................................................11 A. THEORETICAL FOUNDATION .........................................................11 1. Views on China .............................................................................11 2. Competition Short of Violent Conflict .......................................13 3. Foundations of Political Warfare ...............................................14 4. Economic Statecraft .....................................................................15 5. Information Operations and Psychological Warfare ...............18 6. Modern Political Warfare ...........................................................22 7. Government Sponsored Studies..................................................23 8. Institutional Research ..................................................................24 9. Notable Individual Studies ..........................................................28 B. RESEARCH GAPS ..................................................................................29 1. Effects-Based Analysis of Chinese Influence in the Pacific Islands ...........................................................................................29 2. The Interests and Goals of Pacific Islanders .............................30 C. CASE SELECTION.................................................................................30 III. METHODOLOGY ..............................................................................................33 A. EXAMINATION OF THE CASES ........................................................33 B. EXAMINING INTERESTS AND MOTIVATIONS ............................34 C. EXAMINING CHINESE STATECRAFT ............................................35 D. ASSESSING POLITICAL WARFARE ................................................38 E. ASSESSING IMPLICATION AND IMPACT ......................................39 F. ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES ...................................39 vii IV. MOTIVATIONS AND INTERESTS IN OCEANIA ........................................41 A. U.S. INTERESTS .....................................................................................43 1. Regional Interests.........................................................................44
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