Economic Insights: a Stalling Rebound? Update for the Month of November 2020 Commentary by Robert F
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For Public Distribution in the U.S. For Institutional, Professional, Qualified and/or Wholesale Investor Use Only in other Permitted Jurisdictions as defined by local laws and regulations. Principal Global Investors Economic Insights: A stalling rebound? Update for the month of November 2020 Commentary by Robert F. Baur, Ph.D., executive director, chief global economist The surge in daily new Covid-19 cases in Europe is stunting the The outlook may have brightened somewhat for Japan. New recovery, but manufacturing there is strong. Even as virus cases infections haven’t risen recently as they have in the U.S. and in the United States rise, the rebound is extending, and the Europe (here) and daily fatalities stay in single digits. Most of the energy continues. remaining restrictions on activity were eased in September. Retail The U.S. and Chinese economies are driving the world revival. sales have recovered almost all the ground lost during April and October equity market corrections aren’t new to investors, but May. Industrial production jumped 4.0% in September, the fourth this one felt vicious. The potential for a contested U.S. election consecutive gain, and manufacturers expect a sustained recovery. could keep volatility high through year-end, but we expect a Exports are gaining momentum given the strong rebound in modest uptrend to materialize in the New Year. China and other parts of Asia. Surveys of purchasing managers improved a bit in October but show only limited healing. The Long-term interest rates could have a mild upside if economic government plans to extend its subsidy program for travel renewal endures. expenses and restaurant payments. We expect Japan’s gradual Arrive, revive, take five recovery to continue. China’s amazing resurgence continues as the economy returns The mindboggling rebound from the wreckage of the COVID-19 to normal. Retail sales had been the slowest sector to come back lockdown arrived in the third quarter. In the Eurozone, real but September sales were 3.3% above the prior year. Households gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a skyrocketing 61.1% had restrained their activity for some months over possible new annualized pace from the second quarter. U.S. GDP leapt by a outbreaks, but the strong showing in retail reflects a broader nearly as astonishing 33.1% annualized, even with no inventory consumer recovery. Exports have been vigorous for months, but gain and a three-percentage-point deduct from net exports. The solid imports in September pointed to strengthening domestic U.S. economic revival continues apace with healthy momentum demand. Credit expansion was sizeable in the latest data with into November. China’s resurgence remains vigorous as the first total social financing rising 13.5% over the prior year. The healthy country to show an annual gain in GDP. recovery will persist with strong growth in the fourth quarter and After the supercharged economic blastoff of the last quarter, sustained progress in 2021. recovery in the Eurozone could “take five” this quarter, as a Daily new U.S. COVID-19 infections keep making new all-time mild contraction may occur given the surge in COVID-19 highs. Single-day new cases exceeded 90,000 on October 31 for cases and renewed restrictions on economic activity. The the second day (here) and pushed the seven-day moving average seven-day moving average of daily new virus cases is more than to a new record above 79,000. New daily fatalities have been 20,000 in Italy and Spain, more than 40,000 in France, and at new flat—around 800 the last 10 days—and are well below the highs records in most Euro-area countries and the United Kingdom of both spring and summer. (here). Fortunately, fatality numbers are staying well below the high levels of March and April. Renewed restrictions on many Renewed restrictions on U.S. economic activity from rising service-sector businesses will take their toll on growth, but daily cases have been limited so far. Absent a stronger second there are big differences between sectors. October surveys of wave of infections, the U.S. economic rebound appears to have manufacturing companies rose nearly a point to 54.4, the highest compelling momentum to carry into 2021. Capital spending since August 2018, while those from service businesses still is brisk; shipments of nondefense capital goods ex aircraft are indicate contraction. nicely above year-ago levels. Record new orders for similar capital goods are a great omen for further healthy investment. Rising risks induced the European Central Bank to signal more Housing activity is booming, with homebuilder confidence easing action in December to keep financial conditions favorable. at record levels the last two months. Household formation is This would likely be increased bond purchases and larger increasing rapidly and suggests that housing starts and home targeted lending operations to keep plenty of financing available sales will stay spirited. to business. We also expect Euro authorities to turn a blind eye to mushrooming fiscal deficits across many countries. In similar Surveys of manufacturing businesses by regional Federal Reserve action, the U.K. support programs have already been extended. (Fed) banks are uniformly robust. The national business surveys We look for a mild contraction in fourth quarter GDP, but a by MNI Markit News International are also healthy; the October renewed recovery in 2021. Households still have the wherewithal composite index tied the best level since July 2018. The service to spend as U.K. and Eurozone retail sales are already well above sector was hit the hardest by the pandemic, yet even the index pre-pandemic levels. As Asia gets back to normal, Europe will level for services companies is the highest since June 2018. Job benefit from robust foreign demand. gains should stay healthy: the American Staffing Association index of temp-help jobs keeps improving. The Conference Board’s Expressions of opinions and predictions are accurate as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. There is no assurance that such events or prospections will occur and actual condition may be significantly different than that shown here. index of job availability is the same as November 2016 when the should be positive for the stock market at least for a while. From jobless rate was less than 5%. Good job growth and a high savings the markets’ current highly valued perch, any intermediate-term rate should fuel solid consumer spending gains well into 2021. uptrend will surely be modest. Growth may slow a bit under a Biden presidency, as the economy realigns to his priorities. That could keep Besides validating the astonishingly fast resurgence in the third long-term interest rates lower for a little longer. quarter, the U.S. GDP report had some clear signs that the How could such different election scenarios result in mostly similar recovery will continue. Total inventories actually fell slightly (i.e., financial market outcomes? In part because they’re global trends accumulation didn’t add to growth). With inventories extremely that will continue regardless of who’s in the White House. Think fiscal lean after pandemic-induced production lapses, restocking will policy and fading globalization. Since the 1980s, monetary policy had been the main tool to combat recessions. The Fed would lower keep industrial production expanding. Further, net exports interest rates to stimulate consumption and investment. Fiscal policy (exports less imports) subtracted three percentage points from had gotten a bad rap in the 1970s with high inflation and stagnant growth, a much larger-than-typical loss, as imports roared back growth. Now, massive fiscal spending is combined with aggressive much faster than exports. As other countries recover from the Fed bond purchases to reinvigorate the economy; it’s the same in all pandemic recession, U.S. exports should pick up dramatically and major developed countries. add significantly to growth. Globalization has been slowly fading for some time. Two decades of fast wage growth in China made that country much less competitive We expect fourth-quarter U.S. real GDP growth to be in the 4% to than in the 1990s. In addition, populist policies voted in by those 6% range. A safe, effective and available vaccine(s) early next year left behind by globalization or whose jobs left for China slowed the could keep the recovery moving at a 3% pace or more for several outsourcing trend. Now, the pandemic has provided another reason quarters. Absent that, the leisure and hospitality sector will be slow for countries to reassess their economic dependence on, and supply chains in, China. Reshoring of U.S. jobs will likely continue regardless to rebound and keep 2021 U.S. growth near trend, around 2.5%. of the election. Looking ahead Financial market outlook After an incredible third quarter bounce in world economic The above combination of considerable fiscal spending, financed activity, the intensity of the rebound is stepping down. The recovery in part by central banks, plus the fading of disinflation, fostered by clearly hit an air pocket in Europe with new restrictions following globalization, suggests this decade will be characterized by more a significant second wave of infections. So far, the rise in U.S. inflation than expected by the consensus. That’s also the goal of new virus cases hasn’t impeded growth; Transportation Security central banks. Sustained inflation at or somewhat above the target Administration traveler counts, weekly store foot traffic data from of 2% implies measurably higher yields on long-term government Cornerstone Macro research, and consumer spending from bonds. Moderately higher inflation would also imply faster nominal tracktherecovery.org stay in a modest uptrend.