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Does the Sun Work As a Nuclear Fusion Amplifier of Planetary Tidal Forcing? a Proposal for a Physical Mechanism Based on the Mass-Luminosity Relation

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Does the Sun Work As a Nuclear Fusion Amplifier of Planetary Tidal Forcing? a Proposal for a Physical Mechanism Based on the Mass-Luminosity Relation Does the Sun work as a Nicola Scafetta nuclear fusion amplifier of ACRIM & planetary tidal forcing? Duke University At the Space Climate Symposium-5 Jan-Erik Solheim In Oulu, Finland. June 15-19, 2003. http://www.spaceclimate.fi/ University of Tromsø We are living in a solar system ● The solar system oscillates because of planetary motion ● The Sun is likely very sensitive to these oscillations and synchronizes to them ● The Earth's climate system oscillates with the same oscillations by synchronizing to them The theory of a planetary modulation of solar activity The ~11-year sunspot cycle Critique to the theory of a planetary modulation of solar and climate activity ● Planets seem too far from the Sun and from the Earth ● Planetary cycles seem to be uncorrelated to solar variability ● Claiming a planetary influence appears “astrology” Planetary tides during the Maunder Sunspot Minimum, CHARLES M. SMYTHE & JOHN A. EDDY Nature 266, 434 - 435 (31 March 1977); We reconstruct here Sun-centred planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials for the AD 1645– 1715 period of sunspot absence (the Maunder Minimum). These are found to be effectively indistinguishable from patterns of conjunctions and MM power spectra of tidal potential in the modern era of a well-established 11-yr sunspot cycle. This places a new and difficult constraint on any tidal theory of sunspot formation. The inconvenient truths ● Current solar science claims that the Sun is an isolated system regulated by an internal solar dynamo However, current solar dynamo models fail to explain 1) 11-year solar cycle 2) 60-120 yr cycles (Gleissberg solar cycles) 3) 150-250 yr cycle (de Vries solar cycles) 4) 800-1100 yr cycle (Eddy solar cycles) 5) etc...... ● Current climate science claims that astronomical forcings have a very small influence on the Earth's climate However, there is a synchronicity between solar and climate records that remains unexplained, and the ultimate origin of multiple climate oscillations remains mysterious as well. The 11-year sunspot cycle appears regulated by Venus-Earth-Jupiter-Saturn Power Spectrum of the Solar dynamo cycle as 1749-2010 sunspot record a synchronization cycle? Spring tidal period of Saturn & Jupiter? Orbital period of Jupiter? Venus-Earth-Jupiter most alined days vs. sunspot number: P = 11.07 yr VEJ (A) Power spectrum comparison between the z-axis coordinate of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system (red) and the Hungarian auroral record (1530-1960) (black, blue). (B) Power spectrum evaluations using MEM and the multi taper method (MTM) of the cosmogenic records by Steinhilber et al., (2012) covering 9400 years of the Holocene Power spectrum evaluations of solar records Find ~20, ~60, ~85, ~115, ~130, ~210, ~500 and ~1000 year cycles among others Ogurtsov, M.G., Y.A. Nagovitsyn, G.E. Kocharov, and H. Jungner (2002). Long-period cycles of the Sun’s activity recorded in direct solar data a nd proxies Solar Phys. 211, 371-394. Sun speed relative to SS barycenter ~60 ~60 Jupiter & Saturn ● ~10-12 year cycle ● ~20 year cycle ● ~60-61 year cycle ~20 Jupiter/Saturn tides on the Sun 10-12 61 61 The three -frequency Jupiter/Saturn solar harmonic model Jupiter/Saturn spring tide Solar dynamo cycle Jupiter orbital tide Let us sum the three oscillations Three-frequency solar model for solar and millennial climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene (~983 yr cycle) calibration G. Bond, S. Hoffmann, R. Lotti-Bond, J. Beer, R. Muscheler, M. Evans, B. Kromer, W. Showers, I. Hajdes, G. Bonani, Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene, Science (Nov, 2001) R. Kerr, A variable sun paces millennial climate, Science, Vol. 294, p. 1442-1443, (Nov, 2001) Three-frequency solar harmonic model 10 14 vs. Be and C solar proxy reconstructions Calibration period calibration Same model with very small corrections Three-frequency solar harmonic model vs. temperature reconstructions (~61 yr, ~115 yr, ~980 yr cycles) Hindcasting climate variations with specific astronomically cycles Using four specific decadal and multidecadal astronomical oscillations (~9.1, 10-11, 20, 60 yr), it is possible to hindcast decadal GST variations Astronomical Climate model forecast vs. CMIP3 GCM (IPCC 2007) Visit http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/ IPCC, 2007 Astr. Model Full forecast since 2000 Global surface temperature (HadCRUT3): original global surface temperature record (red) published in Scafetta JASTP 2012b; and updated global surface temperature (blue). The back curve within the cyan area is the full astronomical harmonic model forecast since 2000 that clearly outperforms the IPCC general circulation model projections (green area). The yellow curve is the harmonic component alone without the anthropogenic component. Planetary tides are small ! Solving the problem The Sun can work as an Only if the Sun works as amplifier of gravitational an amplifier, planetary disturbances because it is tides may matter. a generator of energy controlled by gravity. Luminosity production associated to tidal energy Equation to convert gravitational energy released by the tides into luminosity anomaly dissipated in the Sun K(χ) is the amplification function rewriting it Solar luminosity L =4x1026 W S amplification factor used in K(χ) ˙ ˙ U Sun=−U fusion Power spectrum of Power spectrum of the energy the sunspot record signal stimulated by the tides Energy signal stimulated by the tides 11.08 yr lag-shift Conclusion Harmonic Amplifier Harmonic generator Less than half than the IPCC AGW claim ● Solar and climate dynamics are coupled and synchronized with astronomical harmonics ● The Sun likely works as a strong amplifier of the gravitational oscillations of the solar system ● Solar/Lunar tidal (multi-)decadal harmonics are present in the climate system ● Current climate general circulation models (CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs) are seriously flawed. ● Natural cyclical variability has contributed at least 50% - 60% of the 20th century warming References: ● Scafetta N., O. Humlum, J.-E. Solheim, and K. Stordahl, 2013. Comment on “The influence of planetary attractions on the solar tachocline” by Callebaut, de Jager and Duhau. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar–Terrestrial Physics. in press. web-link ● Scafetta N., and R. C. Willson, 2013. Planetary harmonics in the historical Hungarian aurora record (1523–1960). Planetary and Space Science 78, 38-44. web-link ● Manzi V., R. Gennari, S, Lugli, M. Roveri, N. Scafetta and C. Schreiber, 2012. High-frequency cyclicity in the Mediterranean Messinian evaporites: evidence for solar-lunar climate forcing. Journal of Sedimentary Research 82, 991-1005. web-link ● Scafetta N., 2012. Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 81-82, 27-40. web-link ● Scafetta N., 2012. Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 80, 296- 311. web-link ● Scafetta N., 2012. Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 80, 124-137. web-link ● Scafetta N., 2012. A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 74, 145-163. web-link ● Mazzarella A. and N. Scafetta, 2012. Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change. Theoretical Applied Climatology 107, 599-609. web-link ● Loehle C. and N. Scafetta, 2011. Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Climatic Data. The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 5, 74-86. web-link ● Scafetta N., 2011. Total Solar Irradiance Satellite Composites and their Phenomenological Effect on Climate. In Evidence-Based Climate Science edited by Don Easterbrook (Elsevier), chap. 12, 289-316. web-link ● Scafetta N., 2010. Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 72, 951-970. web-link ● Scafetta N., 2009. Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 71, 1916-1923. web-link .
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