Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning in the Republic of the Philippines

The Republic of the Philippines Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Completion Report

June 2019

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. GE Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan JR 19-031

Location Map Location

Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Table of Contents Completion Report on Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Table of Contents

Location Map Abbreviations Page

CHAPTER 1 BASIC INFORMATION OF THE PROJECT ...... 1-1 1.1 Country ...... 1-1 1.2 Title of the Project ...... 1-1 1.3 Duration of the Project ...... 1-1 1.4 Background ...... 1-1 1.5 Overall Goal and Project Purpose ...... 1-2 1.6 Implementing Agency ...... 1-2 1.7 PAGASA Modernization Program ...... 1-4

CHAPTER 2 RESULTS OF THE PROJECT ...... 2-1 2.1 Results of the Project ...... 2-1 2.1.1 Input by the Japanese Side ...... 2-1 2.1.2 Input by the Philippine Side ...... 2-2 2.1.3 Activities ...... 2-3 2.1.3.1 Activities for Output 1 ...... 2-6 2.1.3.2 Activities for Output 2 ...... 2-13 2.1.3.3 Activities for Output 3 ...... 2-27 2.1.3.4 Activities for Output 4 ...... 2-39 2.1.3.5 Activities for Output 5 ...... 2-51 2.1.3.6 Activities for the Overall Project Implementation ...... 2-54 2.1.3.7 Cross-sectoral Surveys and Products ...... 2-61 2.2 Achievements of the Project...... 2-70 2.2.1 Project Outputs and Indicators ...... 2-70 2.2.2 Project Purpose and Indicators ...... 2-74 2.3 History of PDM Modification ...... 2-80

CHAPTER 3 RESULTS OF JOINT REVIEW ...... 3-1 3.1 Results of Review Based on DAC Evaluation Criteria ...... 3-1 3.2 Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes ...... 3-4 3.3 Evaluation on the Results of the Project Risk Management ...... 3-5 3.4 Lessons Learned ...... 3-6 3.4.1 Issues, Countermeasures and Lessons Common to All Activities...... 3-6

i Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Table of Contents of Flood Forecasting and Warning

3.4.2 Issues, Countermeasures, and Lessons in Respective Activities ...... 3-8

CHAPTER 4 FOR THE ACHIEVEMENT OF OVERALL GOALS AFTER THE PROJECT COMPLETION ...... 4-1 4.1 Prospects to Achieve Overall Goal ...... 4-1 4.2 Plan of Operation and Implementation Structure of the Philippine Side to Achieve Overall Goal ...... 4-3 4.3 Recommendations for the Philippine Side ...... 4-4 4.4 Monitoring Plan from the End of the Project to Ex-post Evaluation ...... 4-5

List of Tables

Page Table 2.1.1 Actual Input by Japanese Experts ...... 2-1 Table 2.1.2 List of Equipment Procured by the Project ...... 2-1 Table 2.1.3 PWG Members ...... 2-2 Table 2.1.4 Participants in the 1st Counterpart Training in Japan ...... 2-3 Table 2.1.5 Participants in the 2nd Counterpart Training in Japan ...... 2-3 Table 2.1.6 Priority Grouping of 18 Major River Basin Based on Development Progress ...... 2-8 Table 2.1.7 18 Major River Basins Prioritized by the NAFRA Study ...... 2-8 Table 2.1.8 Medium-term Plans (Component: Monitoring Network, as an example) ...... 2-13 Table 2.1.9 Composition of Quality Management Standards ...... 2-20 Table 2.1.10 AQUARIUS Acquisition Type in the Project River Basins ...... 2-23 Table 2.1.11 Telemetry Systems in Accordance with Development Levels ...... 2-34 Table 2.1.12 Composition of the Operational Guidelines on RFFWCs ...... 2-36 Table 2.1.13 Contents of Flood Advisory (FA) ...... 2-37 Table 2.1.14 Contents of Flood Bulletin (FB) ...... 2-37 Table 2.1.15 Comparison of Communication Networks ...... 2-38 Table 2.1.16 Comparison of Communication Tools ...... 2-38 Table 2.1.17 Development Levels for Planning (Staffing and Human Resources Development, Monitoring Network and Data Transfer System) ...... 2-39 Table 2.1.18 RFFWC Staff Deployment Plan by Development Level (Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC)...... 2-41 Table 2.1.19 Outline of Twin Phoenix System ...... 2-42 Table 2.1.20 Outline of JICA Grant System ...... 2-42 Table 2.1.21 Outline of JICS Tagoloan System ...... 2-43 Table 2.1.22 FWWLs of the Existing WL Gauging Stations in Cagayan de Oro River Basin ...... 2-44 Table 2.1.23 List of Observation Stations for Flood Forecasting and Warning ...... 2-45 Table 2.1.24 Results of H-Q Curves ...... 2-47

ii Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Table of Contents

Table 2.1.25 Results of FWWLs ...... 2-47 Table 2.1.26 Outline of Drill Implementation ...... 2-49 Table 2.1.27 Feedback from the Participants in the 1st Drill Activity ...... 2-50 Table 2.1.28 Status of Monitoring Sheet Preparation ...... 2-54 Table 2.1.29 Timing and Major Agenda of JCC ...... 2-55 Table 2.1.30 Timing and Major Topics of Seminar ...... 2-55 Table 2.1.31 Schedule and Program of the 1st Counterpart Training in Japan ...... 2-56 Table 2.1.32 Schedule and Program of the 2nd Counterpart Training in Japan ...... 2-57 Table 2.1.33 Participants for the 1st Counterpart Training in Japan ...... 2-58 Table 2.1.34 Participants for the 2nd Counterpart Training in Japan ...... 2-58 Table 2.1.35 Composition of Project Brief Note ...... 2-59 Table 2.1.36 Outline of Media Briefings ...... 2-60 Table 2.1.37 Outline of Baseline Survey ...... 2-61 Table 2.1.38 Outline of Capacity Assessment ...... 2-64 Table 2.1.39 Number of Questionnaire Distributed and Respondents ...... 2-64 Table 2.1.40 Work Items on River Cross Section Survey ...... 2-68 Table 2.1.41 Work Items on Discharge Measurement ...... 2-68 Table 2.1.42 List of Technical Cooperation Products ...... 2-69 Table 2.2.1 Achievement Status of Project Output by OVI ...... 2-70 Table 2.2.2 Number of Monitoring Items by Chapter ...... 2-72 Table 2.2.3 Achievement Status of Project Purpose by OVI ...... 2-75 Table 2.2.4 Evaluation for Jan-Mar 2019 as Compared to the Average Past Two Months ...... 2-75 Table 2.2.5 OVI-1 for the Entire Project Period ...... 2-76 Table 2.2.6 Average Days Required for Restoration in Individual River Basin ...... 2-76 Table 2.2.7 Trend of Days Required for Restoring Troubles ...... 2-76 Table 2.2.8 Target Stations for OVI-2 Evaluation ...... 2-78 Table 2.2.9 Data Storage in the Integrated Database ...... 2-79 Table 2.2.10 FFWS Status in Cagayan de Oro River Basin ...... 2-79 Table 2.3.1 Modification History of Project Purpose OVIs (at 3rd JCC) ...... 2-80 Table 2.3.2 Modification Result of Project Purpose OVIs (at 4th JCC) ...... 2-81 Table 2.3.3 Modification Result of Project Purpose OVIs (at 6th JCC) ...... 2-82 Table 4.1.1 Prospects of Achieving the Overall Goal ...... 4-2

List of Figures

Page Figure 1.6.1 Organizational Structure of PAGASA ...... 1-3 Figure 1.6.2 Organizational Structure of PAGASA Hydrometeorology Division ...... 1-3 Figure 2.1.1 Flowchart for Project Implementation ...... 2-4 Figure 2.1.2 Planned and Performed Work Schedule ...... 2-5

iii Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Table of Contents of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Figure 2.1.3 Components of FFWS and Development Goals for Stage-wise Development ...... 2-7 Figure 2.1.4 Procedure of Roadmap Preparation ...... 2-9 Figure 2.1.5 Evaluation Criteria for Prioritization of River Basins and Results of Evaluation ...... 2-9 Figure 2.1.6 Roadmap (Example: Jalaur River Basin) ...... 2-11 Figure 2.1.7 Implementation Schedule of Roadmap and Medium-term Plans ...... 2-11 Figure 2.1.8 Breakdown of Total Development Cost by Component ...... 2-12 Figure 2.1.9 Nomenclature Format for Location Identifier ...... 2-19 Figure 2.1.10 Relationship of Quality Management Standards ...... 2-21 Figure 2.1.11 Data Storage Performance Management Excel File ...... 2-23 Figure 2.1.12 Data Management Flow as Stipulated in OM-2012 ...... 2-32 Figure 2.1.13 Hydrological Data Management in RFFWC in the Future ...... 2-33 Figure 2.1.14 Reference Flow of Flood Warning Dissemination ...... 2-38 Figure 2.1.15 Location Map of Observation Stations for Flood Forecasting and Warning ...... 2-46 Figure 2.1.16 Sample File of Transmitted Observation Data of Cagayan de Oro River ...... 2-52 Figure 2.1.17 Flow of Flood Warning Dissemination for Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC ...... 2-53 Figure 2.1.18 Image of Cover Page of Project Brief Note ...... 2-59 Figure 2.1.19 Images of the Project Poster and Brochure ...... 2-60 Figure 2.2.1 Results of Check List on the Guidelines Compliance ...... 2-72 Figure 2.2.2 Issuance of Flood Warnings Associated with Water Level Rising in Typhoon Vinta...... 2-74 Figure 2.3.1 Image of A Declining Trend in OVI-1 ...... 2-82

List of Attachments

Attachment-1: Record of Discussions Attachment-2: Monitoring Sheet (including PDM and PO) Attachment-3: Minutes of Meeting of Joint Coordination Committee Attachment-4: Project Brief Note Attachment-5: List of Technical Cooperation Products Attachment-6: Flowchart of Project Implementation Attachment-7: Schedule of JICA Expert Team Attachment-8: List of Equipment

iv Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Abbreviations List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

API : Application Programming Interface AQTSD : AQUARIUS Time Series Data Set ARFFWC : Agno River Flood Forecasting and Waning Center ARG : Automatic Rain Gauge AWS : Automatic Weather Station BRFFWC : Bicol River Flood Forecasting and Waning Center CA : Capacity Assessment CAD : Climatology and Agro-meteorology Division CC : Carbon Copy CCTV : Closed-circuit Television CDO : Cagayan de Oro CDRRMC : City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council CP : Counterpart Personnel CRFFWC : Cagayan River Flood Forecasting and Waning Center CSV : Comma-Separated Values CTRFFWC : Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan River Flood Forecasting and Waning Center DAC : Development Assistance Committee DBM : Department of Budget and Management DENR : Department of Environment and Natural Resources DEWS : Deployment of Early Warning Systems in Disaster-prone Areas DIC : Data Information Center DICT : Department of Information and Communications Technology DILG : Department of the Interior and Local Government DOST : Department of Science and Technology DPWH : Department of Public Works and Highways DRRMC : Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council DRRM : Disaster Risk Reduction and Management EFCOS : Effective Flood Control Operation System ETS : Engineering and Technical Services ETSD : Engineering and Technical Services Division EWBS : Emergency Warning Broadcast System FA : Flood Advisory FB : Flood Bulletin FCSEC : Flood Control and Sabo Engineering Center FFAS : Flash Flood Alert System FFW : Flood Forecasting and Warning FFWS : Flood Forecasting and Warning Section FFWS(Section) : Flood Forecasting and Warning Section FFWSDO : Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Dam Operation FR : Flow Rate (Discharge) FTP : File Transfer Protocol FWWL : Flood Warning Water Level

I Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Abbreviations of Flood Forecasting and Warning FY : Fiscal Year G/S : Gauging Station GIS : Geographic Information System GMMA : Greater Metro Manila Area GUI : Graphical User Interface HDD : Hard Disk Drive HDSS : Hydrologic Decision Support System HGOS : Hydrological and Geophysical Operations Services HIS : Hydrological Information System HMD : Hydrometeorology Division HMDAS : Hydrometeorological Data Application System HMTS : Hydrological Telemetry System HQ : Headquarters ICAO : International Civil Aviation Organization ICHARM : International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management, Japan ICT : Information and Communications Technology ID : Identification IEC : Information, Education and Communication IFAS : Integrated Flood Analysis System IIJ : Internet Initiative Japan IoT : Internet of Things IP : Internet Protocol IP-VCN : Internet Protocol Virtual Cloud Network IP-VPN : Internet Protocol Virtual Private Network JCC : Joint Coordination Committee JICA : Japan International Cooperation Agency JICS : Japan International Cooperation System JMA : Japan Meteorological Agency JRC : Japan Radio Co., Ltd. KOICA : Korea International Cooperation Agency LDRRMC : Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council LGU : Local Government Unit M/M : Minutes of Meeting M2M : Machine to Machine MDRRMC : Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council MEAS : Mobile Emergency Alert System MLIT : Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan MMDA : Metropolitan Manila Development Authority MPRSD : Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division MS : Microsoft MSL : Mean Sea Level MTTR : Mean Time to Recover N/A : Not Available NAFRA : Study on the Nationwide Flood Risk Assessment and the Flood Mitigation Plan for the Selected Areas

II Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Abbreviations NAMRIA : National Mapping and Resources Information Authority NDMI : National Disaster Management Institute, Korea NDRRMC : National Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Council NEDA : National Economic and Development Authority NGCP : National Grid Corporation of the Philippines NIA : National Irrigation Administration NOAH : Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards NPC : National Power Corporation NTC : National Telecommunications Commission O&M : Operation and Maintenance OCD : Office of Civil Defense OECD : Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OGC : Open Geospatial Consortium OIC : Officer in Charge OM : Operation Manual OVI : Objectively Verifiable Indicator PAGASA : Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration PBN : Project Brief Note PC : Personal Computer PDM : Project Design Matrix PFO : PAGASA Field Office PIA : Philippine Information Agency PLDT : Philippine Long-Distance Telephone PMP : PAGASA Modernization Program PO : Plan of Operation PRFFWC : Pampanga River Flood Forecasting and Waning Center PRSD : PAGASA Regional Services Division PUMIS : PAGASA Unified Meteorological Information System PWG : Project Working Group QMS : Quality Management Standard R/D : Record of Discussion RB : River Basin RC : River Center RDTD : Research and Development and Training Division RFFWC : River Flood Forecasting and Waning Center RR : Rainfall SCADA : Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition SMS : Short Message Service SNS : Social Network Service TELCO : Telephone Company TOR : Terms of Reference UHF : Ultra-High Frequency UTC : Universal Time, Coordinated / Coordinated Universal Time UTF8 : Unicode Transformation Format-8

III Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Abbreviations of Flood Forecasting and Warning VFD : Vacuum Fluorescent Display VHF : Very High Frequency VoIP : Voice over Internet Protocol WD : Weather Division WISEF : Water Information Standard Exchange Format WL : Water Level WLMS : Water Level Monitoring Station WMO : World Meteorological Organization XML : eXtensible Markup Language

IV Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Abbreviations Abbreviations of Measures

Length Money mm = millimeter PHP = Philippine Peso mm/hr = milometer per hour JPY = Japanese Yen cm = centimeter USD = U.S. Dollar m = meter km = kilometer Direction N = North Area E = East ha = hectare S = South m2 = square meter W = West km2 = square kilometer NE = North-East NW = North-West Volume SE = South-East L, l, lit = liter SW = South-West m3 = cubic meter m3/s, cms = cubic meter per second Telecommunications m3/d, cmd = cubic meter per day mA = milliampere MCM = million cubic meter V = volt Ghz = gigahertz Weight Hz = hertz mg = milligram kHz = kilohertz g = gram MHz = megahertz kg = kilogram bps = bits per second t = ton kbps = kilobits per second MT = metric ton fps = frames per second dBi = decibel isotropic Time dB = decibel TB = terabyte sec = second dBm = decibel-milliwatts min = minute dBZ = decibel relative to Z hr = hour

d = day Others yr = year % = percent Energy ° = degree ' = minute kcal = kilocalorie " = second kW = kilowatt °C = degree Celsius MW = megawatt mil. = million kWh = kilowatt-hour no. = number GWh = gigawatt-hour pers. = person

V Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan

Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 1

CHAPTER 1 BASIC INFORMATION OF THE PROJECT

1.1 Country (1) Country Name

The Republic of the Philippines

(2) Target Area

PAGASA Headquarters and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (RFFWC)1

1.2 Title of the Project Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning

1.3 Duration of the Project Planned: 36 months from July 2016 to June 2019 Actual: 36 months from July 2016 to June 2019

1.4 Background The Philippine archipelago, located near the western edge of the Pacific Ocean with population of 101 million people (based on the 2015 Census), is in the direct path of seasonal typhoons and monsoon rains which bring weather disasters such as torrential rainfalls and floods. The damage due to typhoons and torrential rainfall is significantly large, and around 20 typhoons cross and/or approach annually, bringing about serious damage to lives and properties.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), under the administrative supervision of the Department of Science and Technology, is responsible for monitoring meteorological and hydrological phenomenon which causes weather disasters and providing meteorological and hydrological information under the national disaster management framework.

In the Philippines, since the introduction of the flood forecasting and warning system (FFWS) in Pampanga River basin in 1973, FFWSs have been established in Agno, Bicol, Cagayan and Pasig-Marikina River basins. Other than those five river basins among the 18 major river basins2 in the Philippines, the issuance and dissemination of flood warning with accurate and timely forecasting are challenging due to the limitation of rainfall and hydrological monitoring stations as well as human resources.

In order to enhance the nationwide flood forecasting and warning capacity, PAGASA has a plan to expand the hydrometeorological monitoring network to the remaining 13 river basins. The

1 Normally “RFFWC” is used, but simpler “River Center (RC)” is also used in PAGASA. Therefore, both ways of expression are applied to this document. 2 In the Philippines, the river basins with more than 1,400 km2 of catchment area are defined as the major river basins, which consist of (1) Cagayan, (2) Agno, (3) Pampanga, (4) Pasig-Laguna de Bay, (5) Bicol, (6) Abulog, (7) Abra (1 to 7 are in Luzon), (8) Panay, (9) Jalaur, (8 & 9 are in Panay), (10) Ilog-Hilabangan (in Negros), (11) Agusan, (12) Tagoloan, (13) Cagayan de Oro, (14) Agus-Lake Lanao, (15) Tagum- Libuganon, (16) Davao, (17) Mindanao, and (18) Buayan-Malungon (11-18 are in Mindanao)

1-1 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 1 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

hydrometeorological monitoring will be undertaken at the river centers which are to be newly established in the major river basins by PAGASA, and flood forecasting and warning will also be done at the river centers.

As the number of monitoring stations increases and volume of hydrometeorological data dramatically expands, it is necessary to efficiently store and to improve the quality management for hydrometeorological data. Under such circumstances, the Government of the Republic of the Philippines has requested the Government of Japan to implement the project of strengthening capacity of the integrated data management of flood forecasting and warning. The record of discussions (R/D) signed in January 2016 is presented in Attachment-1.

1.5 Overall Goal and Project Purpose (1) Overall Goal

Overall capacity of PAGASA on integrated data management/utilization for flood forecasting and warning system is enhanced.

(2) Project Purpose

Capacity of PAGASA Hydrometeorology Division (HMD) and target River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (RFFWC) on integrated data management/utilization for FFWS is enhanced.

(3) Expected Outputs

Output 1: Capacity on formulation of FFWS Development Plan of PAGASA HMD is enhanced. Output 2: Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on quality management/storage of the hydrometeorological data is enhanced. Output 3: Organization/staffing and equipment/facility of RFFWC are standardized according to the development levels of FFWS. Output 4: Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins is enhanced. Output 5: Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood forecasting and warning is developed.

1.6 Implementing Agency

PAGASA is appointed as the executing agency and a Project Director (PAGASA Administrator), a Project Manager (Director of HMD), and a Project Coordinator (staff of HMD) are assigned.

PAGASA currently consists of 12 divisions with a total of 1,000 employees. Its overall organizational structure is shown in Figure 1.6.1.

1-2 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 1

Source: PAGASA Website

Figure 1.6.1 Organizational Structure of PAGASA

Further, HMD has three sections with approximately 50 staff, which becomes more than 70 if including the staff of four existing RFFWCs as shown in Figure 1.6.2. On the other hand, RFFWCs belong to the respective PAGASA Regional Services Division (PRSD) for the organizational umbrella of PAGASA. However, RFFWCs are extending their services in collaboration with HMD in principle.

Source: PAGASA Website

Figure 1.6.2 Organizational Structure of PAGASA Hydrometeorology Division

The above organizational structures are based on the information as of May 2019. Although, as described later, organization change is included in the PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP; 2017-2019), the PMP is awaiting final approval as of May 2019.

1-3 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 1 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

1.7 PAGASA Modernization Program

PAGASA shall provide adequate up-to-date data and timely information on weather related phenomena using advanced science to help government and the people to prepare for calamities caused by typhoons, floods, landslides, storm surges, extreme climatic events, and climate change. To cope with the crucial requirement of the nation, the “PAGASA Modernization Act of 2015” was enacted through Republic Act No.10692 in November 2015 under the administration of the former President Benigno S. Aquino III. In conformity with the law, the PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP) covering three years for implementation from 2017 to 2019 was prepared by PAGASA in coordination with DOST, DBM and NEDA.

The PMP has been updated and elaborated several times based on a series of discussions among the responsible agencies after its first issuance in November 2016 to date. In the course of the Project, the JICA Expert Team obtained the latest version and confirmed the changes from time to time to reflect the related information to the Project output concerned.

In the PMP, the future organization structure of PAGASA with detailed position titles and salary grades is proposed. Some changes from the current organization of the PAGASA Regional Services Department (PRSD) and the River Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers (RFFWCs) were recognized from the initial stage of the preparation of the PMP.

On the other hand, as one of the Project outputs, the Roadmap for the future development of FFWS in the major 18 river basins was prepared. The Roadmap was contemplated to show the development sequence of seven components of the FFWS in each river basin with time frame up to the target year 2030 aiming at harmonized stage-wise development. The “staffing and human resources development” is one of the seven components for the development. Therefore, the final numbers of staff to be allocated to the offices concerned and actual status of deployment under the PMP were closely related to the planning contents and recommendations in the Roadmap.

Regarding the staffing and organization proposed in the Roadmap in connection with the PMP, further discussions are presented in Clause 2.1.3.1(4).

1-4 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 CHAPTER 2 RESULTS OF THE PROJECT

2.1 Results of the Project

2.1.1 Input by the Japanese Side

(1) Japanese Expert Team

The actual inputs by the Japanese experts are summarized in Table 2.1.1. In addition, the comparison between the planned input and the actual input is presented in Attachment-7.

Table 2.1.1 Actual Input by Japanese Experts Man/Month Name Responsibility Works in Works in Total Philippines Japan Yoshihiro MOTOKI Team Leader / Flood Management / FFW 11.87 0.80 12.67 Hikaru SUGIMOTO Deputy Team Leader / River Management 9.57 0.20 9.77 Minoru KURIKI Integrated Data Management / Database 10.80 0.50 11.30 Shiro HISHINUMA Monitoring System / Hydrology 5.73 -- 5.73 Yoshiyuki SHINJI Information & Communication / Warning Issuance 9.70 0.30 10.00 Masaki ITO Institutional Strengthening / H.R. Development 7.50 -- 7.50 Shuji HIROTA Counterpart Training in Japan (former) -- 0.50 0.50 Hikaru SUGIMOTO Counterpart Training in Japan (successor) -- 0.50 0.50 Total 55.17 2.80 57.97 Note: FFW = Flood Forecasting and Warning, H.R. = Human Resources Source: JICA Expert Team

(2) Equipment

The equipment to be procured by the Project is tabulated in Table 2.1.2 together with the state of procurement and transfer. The changes from the original procurement plan are noted at the bottom of the table. The details are presented in Attachment-8.

Table 2.1.2 List of Equipment Procured by the Project Equipment Q’ty Price Procurement and Transfer Remarks Multifunction Machine 1 set PHP 180,000 Procured in Aug 2016, Transferred in Jun 2019 (HMD) Color Inkjet Printer 1 set PHP 7,595 Procured in Jul 2016, Transferred in Jun 2019 (HMD) Desktop Computer 1 set PHP 76,600 Procured and Transferred in Jan 2018 *1 Decoder 2 sets PHP 330,000 (HMD) FTP Server 1 set PHP 280,870 Current Meter / Float 1 set JPY 515,000 Procured in Jul 2016, Transferred in Dec 2016 (CTRFFWC) Desktop Computer 2 sets PHP 168,940 Procured and Transferred in Aug 2018 Large Monitor 1 set PHP 44,600 (CTRFFWC) GIS Software 1 set PHP 152,300 Procured in Jul 2018, Transferred in Nov 2018 (CTRFFWC) Database Software ------Not procured. *2 Program Software ------Notes *1. Two data servers included in the original procurement plan became unnecessary, while an FTP server, a desktop computer and two decoders became necessary. Therefore, equipment to be procured by the Project was changed. *2. It was determined that database software and program software are not procured by the Project because designing of database itself was no longer required as commercially available software owned by PAGASA was to be utilized. Source: JICA Expert Team

2-1 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning 2.1.2 Input by the Philippine Side

(1) Project Activity

For the sake of smooth implementation of the daily project activities, both CP members and the Expert Team are grouped by expertise and then three Project Working Groups (PWG-A/B/C) were organized. The PWGs were initially organized in August 2016 and then the members were reviewed in response to the recommendation made by the Mid-term Review Team in January 2018. The PWG members are presented in Table 2.1.3 by group and by period.

Table 2.1.3 PWG Members Group PWG-A PWG-B PWG-C Expertise FFWS planning Data management and Hydrological monitoring Information & communication Leader Roy A. Badilla F S Berlin V. Mercado F S Socrates F. Paat, Jr. F S Asst. Anthony M. Lucero F - Arnel Manoos F S Leonida S. Santos F S Leader Oskar D. Cruz - S Margaret P. Bautista F S --- - - Member Nancy T. Lance F - Jose Perin F S Nivagine Nievares F S Anianita Fortich F S Remilio I. Bautista F S Rosalie C. Pagulayan F S Socrates F. Paat, Jr. F - Nivagine Nievares F S Victor C. Flores F S Oskar D. Cruz F - Victor C. Flores F S Imelda David F - Rosalie C. Pagulayan F S Rex Abdon F S Ailene R. Abelardo F S Bema C. Tajones F S Glenzen Cagande F S Iveil Mae Behiga F S Cynthia Paltuob - S Rene Gumapal F S Raul Montilla F S Leo Bunag - S Rolymer Canillo F S Heart Cipriano F S Hilton Fernando - S Adrian B. Garcia F S Ver Lancer Galanida F S De Vera - S Salvador A. Golingan, Jr F - Giovani Larede F S Josephine Albano - S Julius Ceasar Manalo F - Sheila Schneider - S --- - - Leslie Madrazo F S Daniel Caber - S --- - - Norberto P. Narciso F S Allen Buendia - S --- - - Imelda David - S Rommel Yutuc - S --- - - Daniel Lagazon - S Loreto Lavadia - S ------Lorenzo Diaz - S ------Bema Tajones - S Count First-half: 8 persons First-half: 16 persons First-half: 12 persons Second-half: 10 persons Second-half: 16 persons Second-half: 18 persons Note: *1. Some staff are overlapping between two PWGs and their names are written in both PWGs. *2. The alphabets to the right of the name indicate working periods as a PWG member. [F (First-half) and S (Second-half) represent participation in the activities during that periods, respectively.] Source: JICA Expert Team

(2) Counterpart Training in Japan

During the Project period, a counterpart training in Japan was conducted twice. Both periods are two weeks as listed below. The participants are shown in Table 2.1.4 and Table 2.1.5. First : from May 14, 2017 (arrival) to May 27, 2017 (departure) (14 days) Second : from June 24, 2018 (arrival) to July 7, 2018 (departure) (14 days) The overall objectives of both trainings are to understand flood forecasting and warning works being conducted in Japan, and to contribute to smooth implementation of the subsequent project activities. The details of the training programs are described later in Clause 2.1.3.6(4).

2-2 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 Table 2.1.4 Participants in the 1st Counterpart Training in Japan No. Name Position Organization 1 Mr. Rex L. Abdon, Jr. Weather Specialist I Climate and Agromet Division 2 Mr. Daniel L. Caber Weather Specialist I Dumagete Synoptic Station, Visayas PRSD 3 Mr. Ver Lancer D. Galanida Weather Specialist I Dipolog Synoptic Station, Mindanao PRSD 4 Mr. Raul R. Montilla Weather Observer I Tagum RFFWC 5 Ms. Nivagine C. Nievares Weather Specialist I Hydrometeorological Division Note: Positions and organizations of the participants are as of the participation time. Source: JICA Expert Team

Table 2.1.5 Participants in the 2nd Counterpart Training in Japan No. Name Position Organization 1 Ms. Rosalie C. Pagulayan Weather Specialist II Hydrometeorological Division 2 Mr. Lorenzo T. Diaz Weather Specialist I Agno RFFWC 3 Mr. Victor B. Flores, Jr. Weather Specialist I Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC 4 Ms. Bema C. Tajones Weather Specialist I Davao RFFWC 5 Mr. Rommel P. Yutuc Weather Observer III Pampanga RFFWC Note: Positions and organizations of the participants are as of the participation time. Source: JICA Expert Team

2.1.3 Activities

In this project, all the work items were performed as specified in the particular specification and PDM without any modification. The performed works and activities are stated in detail in the following sub-sections 2.1.3.1 to 2.1.3.7 below. A flowchart of the project implementation that was prepared at the beginning is presented in Figure 2.1.1 on the next page. Besides, A3-size flowchart is presented in Attachment-6. However, since the major purpose of the flowchart is to schematically illustrate the work procedures, and due to limited space within the chart, the chart shows only an approximate timeline. Therefore, Figure 2.1.2 separately presents the planned and performed work schedule so as to compare both. There is no difference in the work items and contents between the plan and the actual performance, while implementation periods of some activities were changed.

2-3 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

HW 2

JCC JCC

△

▽

◎

Report

Cpmpletion Cpmpletion

Project Project

JCC

Brief

Note

holding

Assistance in Assistance

Updating of Updating

Report

Completion

Preparation of Preparation

CY2019

on on

JCC JCC

holding

Assistance in Assistance

Monitoring Monitoring

discussion

Preparation and Preparation

progress progress

monitoring results monitoring

Feed back the back Feed

monitoring

Conduct

◎

JCC

◆

Ver.6

Semina

Holding

on the Data Forwarded the Forwarded fromRFFWCData on

Dissemination Practice of Flood Warning Based ofBased Flood WarningPractice Dissemination

Seminar

Government based on the Data Obtained Obtained at RFFWC on Data based the Government

Dissemination Practice of Flood the offor Flood WarningLocal Practice Dissemination

activities for activities

◎

on on

JCC JCC

Outputs 4 & 5 4 & Outputs

Reflect the the of results Reflect

Discharge Measurements Discharge

holding

Assistance in Assistance

Monitoring Monitoring

discussion

Preparation and Preparation

◎

JCC

◎

◆

Ver.5

progress progress

monitoring

Conduct

CY2018

Semina

Holding

on on

JCC JCC

ng Water Levels Levels Water ng

holding

Assistance in Assistance

Monitoring Monitoring

discussion

Preparation and Preparation

◎

JCC

△

▽

◆

P/R

Ver.4

progress progress

monitoring

Conduct

Note

Field Work

Updateing Updateing Brief of

Project Implementation

Semina

Preparation

Holding

Progress Report Progress

Government Agencies Pilot Agencies RFFWCfromGovernment

Seminar

Operation Manuals for Warning Issuances to Local Local forManuals to Issuances Warning Operation

on on

JCC JCC

Discharge

hart for

holding

Assistance in Assistance

Term Plan Plan for Term

Sheet

Monitoring Monitoring

discussion

Preparation and Preparation

Conduct Study on Quality Management of Observed Data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan and River Oro Basins Tagoloan at ofde Observed Cagayan Data Quality Management Study on Conduct

◎

JCC

◆

Ver.3

Flow

including Budget Budget Estimation including

Enhancement of FFWSEnhancement

Medium

Preparation and Review of and Review Preparation

progress progress

monitoring

Conduct

CY2017

hydrometeorological to data HMD hydrometeorological periodically

Enhancement of FFWSEnhancement

Roadmap forRoadmap

Preparation and of Review Preparation

Overseas

Apply the Quality Management Standards to the Integrated Hydrometeorological the Hydrometeorological Integrated Management Standards to Apply the Quality

Transmit

Establish an Integrated Hydrometeorological Input Hydrometeorological to Integrated the Database, and Establish an

Training CP of Training

2.1

Data Transmission Transmission Pilot Basins Plan inRiver Data

Devices Installation Plan and Hydrometeorological Hydrometeorological Plan Installation and Devices

Preparation of Staff Deployment Plan, Monitoring of StaffDeployment Preparation

Hydrometeorological Format Data Standard Data with the Hydrometeorological

Database

Programs for Existing RFFWCsExisting for Programs

Planning of Rehabilitation of Rehabilitation Planning

Agencies Agencies

Warnings to Local Government Government to Local Warnings

Guidelines of Issuance of Flood Flood ofof Issuance Guidelines

on on

Figure

Monitoring of RFFWC Operation in Accordance Manuals in Accordance with Operation Operation of RFFWCMonitoring

Monitoring Monitoring

discussion

Preparation and Preparation

Hydrometeorological Data Hydrometeorological

Management of Management

Establish Standards Quality Standards for Establish

JCC JCC

◎

JCC

◆

Ver.2

holding

progress progress

Assistance in Assistance

monitoring

Conduct

development of RFFWCdevelopment

Forecast and Warning Systems in Accordance in and Accordance with Systems Warning Forecast

Operation Manuals for Establishment of Flood of Flood forManuals Establishment Operation

Prioritization Prioritization

Interviews for Setting Setting forof Interviews

Semina

Project Completion Report Completion Project

Holding

：

Seminar

PC/R

and and

Q Curves and Draft of Flood Warning Water Levels Prepared de Establish Cagayan Flood Warniand Prepared Oro/Tagoloan and by RFFWC,Curves Levels ofWater DraftFlood WarningQ

、

Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and propose to HMDTagoloan stations de propose Cagayan and curves and observation rivers, Oro of at Q

of Existing RFFWCExisting of

Equipment Conditions Conditions Equipment

Investigation on Investigation

regularly

holding holding

assistance to assistance

of JCC of

Establishment Establishment

Survey

Baseline

on on

△

◎

JCC

Major River Basins River Major

Extraction inof 18 Issues Extraction

Report

Expandability and Efficiency Expandability

Development Level Future, in the Development

Considering Improvement of Improvement Considering

Establish Standard Standard Format Establish

CY2016

Check Check of H

Produce

Progress Report Progress

Work

Baseline Baseline Syurvey

：

P/R

Monitoring Monitoring

discussion

Preparation and Preparation

Plan

、

Equipment

Procurement

▽

◎

◆

Components of FFWSComponents

JCC

Brief Brief

Note

by Development Levels Development by

Ver.1

discussion of discussion

explanation and explanation

Submission, Submission,

Work Plan Work

Joint Coordination Committee Coordination Joint

Transfer

Technology

Work plan and and plan Work

Preparation of Preparation

－

△

：

W/P

２

HW 1

JCC

W/P

Concerned Organizations Organizations Concerned

Data Format Required by Format the Required Data

Confirm Hydrometeorological Hydrometeorological Confirm

River Cross Section River CrossSection Survey

Dissemination Dissemination

Warning

Method of Flood Flood of Method

and Effective Effective and

Problem Analysis Analysis Problem

of PAGASA PAGASA of

l Observation Data Observation l

Hydrometeorologica

Existing Existing

Format of the of the Format

Review Data Review

FFWS/FFWSDO

of the Existing Existing the of

Monitoring Stations Stations Monitoring

Automatic Automatic

Format from Format

Review Data Review

Meeting

Report

as New New as

Existing as well Existing

involved in the involved

on Problems Problems on

and Analysis Analysis and

Investigation Investigation

Collection and and Collection

of the Project the of

and methodology methodology and

data and information and data

Study on basic policy, basic policy, on Study

arrangement of existing of existing arrangement

contents

Year

Month

Outcome

Work Place

Overseas TrainingOverseas

】

Sub-contract WorksSub-contract

JICA Expert Team Expert JICA

Conferennce and Seminar and Conferennce

：

Activities 2 related Ouput to

Activities 1 related Ouput to

Rainy season in the Pilot River basin River Pilot the in season Rainy

Activities related5 Output to

Activities related4 Output to

Activities related3 Output to

Works common to all to Works common outputs

Monitoring Sheets/ Brief Note

Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan and Oro de Cagayan

Output 5 Output

Output 4 Output

Output 3 Output

Output 2 Output

Output 1 Output

warning is developed.

management for foreacting flood management and

Tagoloan RFFWC on data RFFWCTagoloan on

Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/ de Capacity Cagayan of

【

river basins is enhanced.

Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS on HMD Capacity PAGASA of

【

of FFWS.of

according to the development levels the development according to

facility RFFWC of are standardized

Organization/ staffing equipment/ and

【

enhanced.

hydrometeorological data is

quality management/ storgae the of quality management/

Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on and Capacity PAGASA of

【

is enhanced.

Developpment Plan of PAGASA HMD PAGASA of Plan Developpment

Capacity on formulationCapacity FFWS of on 【 Source

2-4 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Monitoring Item YR2016 YR2017 YR2018 YR2019 J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Output 1: Capacity on formulation of FFWS development plan of PAGASA HMD is enhanced 1.1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 Plan ■ ■ major river basins, and to extract problems in FFWS Actual ■ ■ 1.2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ major rivers Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 1.3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for Plan ■ ■ ■ deciding priority of phased developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers Actual ■ Plan ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ ■ 1.4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Actual ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ ■ □ □ □ ■ □ □ ■ □ □ □ □ ■ ■ □ □ ■ □ □ ■ ■ 1.5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of Plan ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ ■ FFWS incl. budget estimation Actual ■ ■ □ □ ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ ■ ■ □ □ ■ □ ■ ■ ■ Output 2:Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on quality management/storage of the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced 2.1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological Plan ■ observation data of PAGASA Actual ■ 2.2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the Plan ■ existing FFWS/FFWSDO Actual ■ 2.3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the Plan ■ ■ concerned organizations Actual ■ ■ 2.4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of Plan ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ development level in the future, expandability and efficiency Actual ■ ■ 2.5 To establish standards for quality management of Plan ■ ■ hydrometeorological data Actual ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ 2.6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ input the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ □ ■ ■ □ □ □ ■ 2.7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated Plan ■ ■ hydrometeorological database Actual ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ ■ 2.8 To check malfunction of the existing observation/communication Plan ■ ■ ■ equipment Actual ■ ■ 2.9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning Plan ■ ■ ■ observation/ communication equipment for budgeting by PAGASA Actual ■ ■ Output 3: Organization/staffing and, equipment/facility of RFFWC are standarized according to the development levels of FFWS 3.1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze Plan ■ possible problems of new RFFWCs Actual ■ □ 3.2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information Plan ■ ■ ■ transmission in flooding, and to propose efficient procedures * Actual ■ ■ ■ 3.3 To draft development standards for equipment and facilities for Plan ■ ■ ■ RFFWC according to the level of FFWS * Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ □ ■ ■ ■ 3.4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■■■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Actual ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ ■ ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ ■ ■ □ ■ 3.5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and Plan ■ ■ ■ others at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS * Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ □ ■ Output 4: Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins is enhanced 4.1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ hydrometeorological data transmission plan Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ □ ■ ■ ■ ■ 4.2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels Plan ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs * Actual ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ ■ ■ □ □ ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ ■ □ □ □ ■ □ ■ 4.3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins Actual ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ 4.4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data Plan ■ ■ transmitted from RFFWC Actual ■ ■ Output 5: Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood forecasting and warning is developed 5.1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro Plan ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft warning water levels * Actual ■ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ ■ ■ □ □ ■ ■ ■ □ □ □ □ □ ■ □ □ □ ■ □ ■ Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 5.2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Actual □ □ □ □ □ □ □ 5.3 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and Plan ■ ■ ■ others at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins * Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ 5.4 To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing Plan ■ ■ observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD Actual ■ ■ Monitoring Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Joint Coordination Committee Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Plan ■ Set-up the Detailed Plan of Operation Actual ■ Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Submission of Monitoring Sheet Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Plan Monitoring Mission from Japan Actual ■ Reports/Documents Plan ■ Work Plan Actual ■ Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Monitoring Sheet Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Plan ■ ■ Prgress report / Project Completion Report Actual ■ ■ Public Relations Plan ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ PR Activities Actual ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Plan ■ ■ ■ Project Brief Note Actual ■ ■ ■ Plan ■ ■ ■ Seminar Actual ■ ■ ■ Note: * Descriptions with asterisk (*) have been simplified from its original expressions due to the limited spaces. Figure 2.1.2 Planned and Performed Work Schedule

2-5 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning 2.1.3.1 Activities for Output 1

(1) [Activity 1-1] Analysis on the Current Situation of 18 Major River Basins and Extraction of Problems in FFWS

Regarding present conditions on the existing hydrological monitoring stations which are the premises for the Roadmap preparation, the inventory of rainfall and water level monitoring stations in the respective river basins compiled in the “Data Collection Survey on Situation of Nationwide Flood Forecasting and Warning System” was updated with the CP after collection of information on the monitoring stations from the concerned agencies. Information of the monitoring stations consists of 12 items, namely: i) code no., ii) river name, iii) station name, iv) type of equipment, v) interval of recording, vi) duration of record, vii) location (latitude and longitude), viii) elevation, ix) time of installation, x) responsible agency for O&M, xi) monitoring status, and xii) address of station.

Monitoring stations are additionally under installation by PAGASA through the River Center Project consisting of building construction of River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center in 13 river basins and installation of minimal number of rainfall and water level gauging stations which are managed by HMD. The latest information for the above was also collected.

Issues for maintenance and future enhancement of monitoring stations were identified through a series of interviews with the officers in charge at existing RFFWC, who are responsible in the maintenance of the monitoring stations in PAGASA, and site reconnaissance. Interview on current operation status was conducted with the officers in charge in NPC and NIA as well, who manage flood forecasting and warning system for dam operation (FFWSDO). The results of the surveys were compiled in the Baseline Report (September 2016) and then, these are utilized and reflected in various project activities.

(2) [Activity 1-2] Determination of Components of FFWS by Development Level

Immediately after the commencement of the Project, common recognition that stage-wise development is prerequisite to efficiently proceed with the development of FFWS in the new river basins was shared and confirmed with CP, and this context was described in the Work Plan. After that, under this activity, components of FFWS and development goals at each level (stage) have been established through repeated discussions in the Project Working Group (PWG) meetings.

The development level was set at three stages in the aspects of possibility of implementation, updating of plans by CP, and sustainability of monitoring. The development goals to be attained at each level were examined for each component. Since this process covers each component consisting of FFWS, JICA experts proceeded the study through coordination with each other and took care of information sharing to absorb CP’s opinions.

Through the working process, 21 components, which had been considered at the commencement of the Project, were integrated by combining similar ones to become seven components (plus one: construction of RFFWC building) and development goals for each component were set as shown in Figure 2.1.3.

2-6 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

0. Building and Facilities of RFFWC Stage 3: Enough equipment and facilities are installed to further enhance operational activities, researches and analysis. Stage 2: Minimal peripheral equipment is procured and installed in the RFFWC to conduct FFWS. Stage 1: Construction of building is completed.

1. Monitoring Network Stage 3: Telemeter system is further enhanced by contemporary technology. Stage 2: Monitoring network is configured by telemetry to monitor data at RFFWC. Stage 1: Minimal number of monitoring stations of rainfall and water level is available.

2. Data Management System Stage 3: Integrated data management system is established. Stage 2: Data is automatically stored in RFFWC with quality check. Stage 1: Manual encoding into PC is secured.

3. Data Transfer System Stage 3: Data transfer system is sophisticated and diversified by adopting IoT, etc. Stage 2: Automatic data transfer is made through telemetry from G/S to RFFWC and HMD. Stage 1: Data is transferred through Tel, Fax, internet and/or SMS. 4. Flood Forecasting Method Stage 3: Real time prediction by flood runoff simulation model is available. Stage 2: Prediction by water level correlation between two G/S is available. Stage 1: Only spot data of flood water level is available.

5. Issuance of Flood Warning Information Stage 3: Flood message related to FWWLs are pre-determined and disseminated. Stage 2: FWWLs are set considering required lead time and local characteristics, etc. Stage 1: Flood Warning Water Levels (FWWLs) are preliminarily set.

6. Flood Warning Dissemination System Stage 3: Info & warning are shared by further alternative modes such as EWBS, etc. Stage 2: Flood info & warning are shared by alternative modes such as DICT intranet. Stage 1: Flood info & warning are disseminated through Tel, Fax, internet and/or SMS. 7. Staffing and Human Resources Development Stage 3: Number of staff is increased up to 10 personnel. Stage 2: Number of staff is increased up to 5 to 6 personnel. Stage 1: Minimum number of personnel (2 to 3 personnel) are deployed. Source: JICA Expert Team Figure 2.1.3 Components of FFWS and Development Goals for Stage-wise Development

(3) [Activity 1-3] Interviews with Concerned Organizations for Deciding Priority

In order to decide the priority for phased development of FFWS in the 18 major river basins, interviews regarding the priority and reasons at the agencies concerned were conducted.

1) PAGASA

PAGASA deems it desirable to avoid expressions such as high and low regarding priority with due considerations to political and social sensitivity. Besides, considering improvements in data management and utilization that are the principal objectives of this project, giving high priority to a river basin whose monitoring system is not developed at all may lead to the delay of the entire project. Therefore, PAGASA considers that more developed river basins should be highly prioritized among the 18 river basins. The river basins where development is advanced can be viewed as areas where flood damages were larger in the past. According to this concept, the 18 major river basins are classified into 7 groups as presented in Table 2.1.6.

2-7 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Table 2.1.6 Priority Grouping of 18 Major River Basin Based on Development Progress No. Progress Status of Development River Basin Name Pampanga, Agno, Bicol, Cagayan, Operational with RFFWC building, 1 More developed Pasig-Laguna de Bay, Cagayan de Oro, monitoring equipment and RFFWC staff Tagum-Libuganon Monitoring equipment completed and 2 Jalaur, Abra, Panay commissioning Monitoring equipment to be completed 3 Ilog-Hilabangan by the end of 2017 Monitoring equipment posted 4 Davao, Buayan-Malungon, Togoloan (bid opening in mid-July 2017) Monitoring equipment posted 5 Abulog (bid opening in end-July 2017) 6 Monitoring equipment to be posted soon Mindanao, Agusan 7 Less developed Posting undecided Agus Note: Status of development shows the situation as of early July 2017 when the interview was made.

2) Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH)

Flood Control and Sabo Engineering Center (FCSEC) of DPWH has been evaluating priorities based on the result of NAFRA3study, which was completed in 2008 by JICA. The NAFRA study selected 56 river basins as high-priority basin among nationwide river basins through two-step screening process. Out of the 56 river basins, the 18 major river basins that are related to this Project are listed in Table 2.1.7 in order of priority.

Table 2.1.7 18 Major River Basins Prioritized by the NAFRA Study No. & Name of Fund Type Priority River Name in the NAFRA Study*2 the 18 Major River Basin 3 Panay / Mambusao 3: Panay 4 Mindanao 10: Mindanao 5 Nangalisan / Baggao-Pared (Cagayan) 16: Cagayan 6 Upstream of Agno (Include Ambayawan, Banila) 14: Agno 7 Ilog-Hilabangan 5: Ilog-Hilabangan Foreign Assisted 8 Davao 11: Davao Project*1 9 Kabilugan / Velasco / Bato Lake (Bicol) 15: Bicol (26 projects in 12 Upper Agusan 6: Agusan total in NAFRA) 13 Upper Marikina 18: Pasig-Laguna de Bay 15 Jalaur 4: Jalaur 16 Tagum-Libuganon 13: Tagum-Libuganon 20 Upstream of Pampanga (Include Rio Chico) 17: Pampanga 23 Abulog 2: Abulog 24 Abra 1: Abra Local Funded 4 Tagoloan 12: Tagoloan Project*1 5 Agus / Buayan 7: Agus-Lake Lanao (30 projects in 9 Buayan-Malungon 8: Buayan-Malungon total in NAFRA) 25 Cagayan de Oro 9: Cagayan de Oro Note: *1. The river basins presented in the above table are extracted from the NAFRA’s 56 priority river basins. *2. In some cases, the river name shows tributary or particular part of the main stream. Source: Summarized by JICA Expert Team based on the report on Nationwide Flood Risk Assessment and the Flood Mitigation Plan for the Selected Areas (March 2008, JICA)

3 Nationwide Flood Risk Assessment and the Flood Mitigation Plan for the Selected Areas (March 2008, JICA)

2-8 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 FCSEC also considers the following matters in determining the priorities of river basins or in selecting target river basins:  River basin which does not have any study  Regional equality  Request from DPWH regional offices

(4) [Activity 1-4] Preparation and Review of Roadmap for Enhancement of FFWS

The Draft Roadmap was prepared with the CP in PWG- A based on the results of the Baseline Survey and through Activities 1-1 and 1-3. The procedure for preparation is shown in Figure 2.1.4.

From the analysis on actual results of the existing RFFWCs and records in new river basins where

development is on-going, it was assumed that the Figure 2.1.4 Procedure of development period (required period from Stage 1 to 3) Roadmap Preparation in single river basin should be five years (for planning, design and installation); the target year when all 18 river basins will reach Stage 3 was set in 2030.

In the preliminary study stage, PWG-A members worked out by sharing to prepare the development plans of respective river basins (stage-wise development by each component) assuming to start the development from the present.

Next, the grouping of river basins was examined to equalize budget allocation avoiding concentration of initial investment and to expedite development in the priority river basins. Firstly, from the extent of damage potential (magnitude of affected population) and development status of structural measures, the development priority of river basins was assessed. Secondly, the interview results as conducted in Activity 1-3 and opinions and requests of PAGASA were considered as well. The adopted evaluation criteria and the results are shown in Figure 2.1.5.

Evaluation Criteria • Past flood damage • Future flood risk • Existing and/or planned measures Step 1 • Characterstics of floods • Progress of FFWS development

• PAGASA's Policy • Equivalence between areas/ regions Step 2 • Harmonization with the relevant plans

Earlier enhancement and development

Group A Group B Group C

● Jalaur (V) ● Abra (L) ● Abulog (L) ● Cagayan de ● Panay (V) ● Agusan (M) Oro (M) ● Ilog- ● Agus-Lake ● Davao (M) Hilabangan (V) Lanao (M) ● Agno (L) ● Tagoloan (M) ● Buayan- ● Cagayan (L) ● Tagum- Malungon (M) ● Pampanga (L) Libuganon (M) ● Mindanao (M) ● Pasig-Laguna ● Bicol (L) de Bay (L) Source: JICA Expert Team Figure 2.1.5 Evaluation Criteria for Prioritization of River Basins and Results of Evaluation

2-9 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning On the other hand, the development of FFWS in some river basins among the target 18 river basins is on-going by PAGASA in parallel. In fact, PAGASA (HMD and PRSD) is conducting it as its own tasks and routine works. In particular, three components among seven as shown in Figure 2.1.3, i.e., building and facilities of RFFWC, monitoring network, and staffing and human resources development, are needed to be monitored and reviewed periodically to keep the Roadmap updated during the Project period. The review and updating works in the respective river basins were continued to examine up to what level of the planning contents shall be covered by the Roadmap with PWG-A members until November 2018.

Further, since the PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP) presented the future overall organization and number of staff to be deployed at each RFFWC, the recommendations were substantially reviewed and incorporated in the Roadmap as well as other Project products. Based on the latest version of the PMP, which has been furnished by the Planning Division of PAGASA to the JICA Expert Team in November 2018, the recommendation on staffing pattern was carefully examined in light of the required number of staff toward Stage 3 operation of RFFWCs, which was contemplated in the Roadmap. As a result, the human resources development plan for 18 river basins was formulated as a part of the Roadmap, in parallel with finalization of the Roadmap in March 2019.

In this connection, to prepare the human resources development plan, it was presumed that the number of staff proposed in the PMP will be deployed to the respective RFFWCs by the end of 2019, the final year of the PMP. The implementation of the Roadmap will commence in 2020 and continue after the PMP toward the goal. This adjustment was made in consideration of the implementation schedule of the Roadmap separately from the other six components.

The human development plan considered the incremental number of staff by development stages with skills and knowledge for task fulfillment in accordance with the upgrading of FFWS services in RFFWCs. Further, to sustain the harmonized stage-wise development with other components of the Roadmap, the required time span and timing of increase of staff were considered.

In addition, the Optimization Project (July 2018-June 2021), which is an on-going project managed by HMD to optimize operational capabilities of hydromet sensors for effective weather and flood early warning system and application to research, is underway by PAGASA and DOST. The Optimization Project will evaluate and validate all monitoring equipment (rainfall and water level sensors) installed through the NOAH Project (2009-2015). Since it is expected that available and suitable gauging stations will be integrated in the monitoring networks for FFWS in 18 river basins, it is recognized as a part of the implementation of the Roadmap for the component of monitoring network.

The Roadmap is presented individually for 18 river basins in a bar chart showing time scale by respective components and by development goals in each of the three stages. For instance, the Roadmap of the Jalaur River in Panay Island belonging to Group A, which has the most advanced status for monitoring network in the Visayas Region and aims at the earlier overall development of FFWS with high priority, is shown in Figure 2.1.6.

2-10 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 Roadmap of Group A Core implementation period 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 No. - - - 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 6th Year

JFM AMJ JAS OND JFM AMJ JAS OND JFM AMJ JAS OND JFM AMJ JAS OND JFM AMJ JAS OND JFM AMJ JAS OND JFM AMJ JAS OND JFM AMJ JAS O ND JFM AMJ JAS OND Implementation of PAGASA Modernization Plan Optimization Project by PAGASA Preparation of the Roadmap Jalaur 0 River Center Building / Equipment/ Vehicles 0.1 Co-located at Iloilo Radar Station 0.2 0.3 1 Monitoring Network 1.1 Installed by RIMES Project 1.2 1.3 Calibration of X-band radar 2 Data Management System 2.1 2.2 2.3 3 Data Transfer System 3.1 3.2 3.3 4 Flood Forecasting Method 4.1 4.2 4.3 5 Issuance of Flood Warning Information 5.1 5.2 5.3 6 Flood Warning Dissemination System 6.1 6.2 6.3 7 Staffing and Human Resources Development 7.1 7.2 7.3 Source: JICA Expert Team Note: The numbers in the left end column show the no. of component and stage. (Ref: Figure 2.1.3) Figure 2.1.6 Roadmap (Example: Jalaur River Basin)

(5) [Activity 1-5] Preparation and Review of Medium-term Plans for Enhancement of FFWS Including Budget Estimation

The Roadmap, the Medium-term Plans, and the PMP (PAGASA Modernization Program) are closely related. The implementation schedule of the three key plans is illustrated in Figure 2.1.7.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 PAGASA Modernization Plan Period: 2017-2019

PAGASA-JFReeDAM Period: Jul.2016-Jun.2019 PAGASA’s Planning Approval Roadmap (18 River Basins) Target

Medium-term Plans

PAGASA’s own activities Priority Group A: 7 River Basins PAGASA’s own activities Priority Group B: 6 River Basins PAGASA’s own activities Priority Group C: 5 River Basins

Source: JICA Expert Team

Figure 2.1.7 Implementation Schedule of Roadmap and Medium-term Plans

2-11 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning Regarding the FFWS development in the seven river basins belonging to Group A, members of PRSD and PWG-A jointly examined the required actions (subject to cost estimate) by respective development stages and estimated cost preliminarily. The unit costs were applied through collection and analyses of the data from the “Preparatory Survey for the Project for Developing Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Cagayan de Oro River Basin” and “The Project for Improvement of Flood Forecasting and Warning System in the Bicol River Basin”. As a result, the data of the improvement project in the Bicol River basin was applied to estimate the investment and running costs to achieve Stage 3 within the implementation period of five years until 2024 in accordance with the Roadmap.

As for the preliminary cost estimate, the following items were selected from the seven components since these share a major portion of the entire cost:

◆ Development Cost The basic items for estimating development cost include the following:  Construction/renovation of RFFWC building (if necessary)  Purchase of office supplies including hardware, software, etc.  Purchase of field equipment, field vehicle  Installation of large-scale system, gauging station, relay station  Outsourcing of discharge measurement, river cross section survey  Training ◆ Recurrent Cost The basic items for estimating recurrent cost include the following:  O&M of office equipment, utilities, vehicles, etc.  Periodical maintenance/ restoration of monitoring equipment  Associated cost for data management such as internet services connection In order for PAGASA to make annual financial arrangement, the total development cost was divided into five years on a development stage basis. Figure 2.1.8 below presents the breakdown of development cost by component and by basin. As seen in the graph, development of monitoring network accounts for a large portion of the total cost in each river basin.

JLR River Center Building CDO Monitoring Network Data Management System DVO Data Transfer System AGN Flood Forecasting Method

CGY Flood Warning Protocol River Basin PAM Flood Warning Dissemination PLB Staffing and Human Resources Development 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Development Cost (mil. PHP) Source: JICA Expert Team

Figure 2.1.8 Breakdown of Total Development Cost by Component

2-12 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 With regard to the river basins in Groups B and C, it is expected that PAGASA will be able to prepare the Medium-term Plans in the future referring to the results of the plan preparation for Group A and in consideration of the development progress. The results were arranged as the Medium-term Plans by river basin and by component. Table 2.1.8 shows an example. The annual investment plans were subsequently prepared assuming allocation of investment budget in several years at the initial stage.

Table 2.1.8 Medium-term Plans (Component: Monitoring Network, as an example)

Name of river basin & Component

ACTION PLAN & CO ST ESTIM ATE Description of Equipment, material, Cost data N am e of R iver Basin: JA LA U R R IVE R BAkey S IN actions C om ponent 1: M onitoring N etw ork training, etc. U nit Price A m ount C ode N o. K ey Action E quipm ent/ M aterial U nit Q 'ty R em arks PHP PHP JLR 1 - 1 M inimum Num ber of MStage onitoring Station 1 S ub-total, M inim um N um ber of M onitoring Stations 0 S ub-total, Stage 1 D evelopm ent 0 JLR 1 - 2 E stablishm ent of A Telem etered M onitoring Stations R ainfall + W ater Level Gauging Station lot 3 3,485,498 10,456,495 Telem etric M onitoring R ainfall Gauging Station lot 3 1,980,892 5,942,675 N etwork R elay Station with Tow er set 1 16,788,174 16,788,174 C W for Rainfall + W ater Level Gauging Station ps 3 7,690,628 23,071,884 Stage 2 C W for Rainfall Gauging Station ps 3 4,078,429 12,235,287 S ub-total, Telem etered M onitoring Stations 68,494,515 S ub-total, Stage 2 D evelopm ent 68,494,515 JLR 1 - 3 E nhancem ent of A M odernization of Telem etry X -Band Gauging Station lot 1 42,680,586 42,680,586 S ystem S ystem C W for X-Band Gauging Station ps 1 7,769,160 7,769,160 Stage 3 C C TV System ps 4 2,000,000 8,000,000 S ub-total, M odernization of Telem etry System 50,449,746 S ub-total, Stage 3 D evelopm ent 50,449,746 T otal Investm ent C ost (C om ponent 1-S tages 1, 2 & 3) 118,944,261 Source: JICA Expert Team 2.1.3.2 Activities for Output 2

~~(1) [Activity 2-1] Review of Data Format of the Existing Hydrometeorological Observation Data of PAGASA~~

The questionnaire with the following contents was prepared and distributed to concerned divisions of PAGASA, including HMD, WD, CAD, and RDTD: 1) File format presently used; 2) In-situ data (observation site to local office, local office to HQ, HQ to other organizations); 3) Remotely-sensed data (Radar, Satellite Image, Others); 4) Observation frequency; 5) Responsible division/service; 6) Purpose of observation; 7) Data transmission method (From observation sites to data processing site, Data processing site to other organizations); 8) Users of observation data; 9) System/database/device (location, provider); 10) Data size a day; 11) Advantage of file format; 12) Disadvantage of file format; and 13) Start date of data format utilization.

2-13 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning Completed questionnaires were received on the Pasig-Marikina River FFWS (EFCOS/ KOICA), and PAGASA Unified Meteorological Information System (PUMIS).

~~The JICA Expert Team conducted an interview with the Climatology and Agro-meteorology Division (CAD) chief and staff on the current status of PUMIS and future trends. The outline is as follows:~~

PUMIS was conceived to address the need to monitor global climate change and variability through a central data repository that could provide climate instrumental time series information collected from PAGASA’s current observation facilities, such as satellite, radar and automated weather stations (AWSs), among others.

Implemented in 2015, PUMIS was designed to follow the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards for data management. The system collects data and files with standard and user-defined formats, as well as CLICOM data, and metadata. PUMIS is also capable of producing data listings and tabulations of hourly and other periodic data, statistical summaries, and graphical images of real time satellite maps and radar data, as well as map analyses, wind roses, time series, upper-air sounding, and station model plots.

At present, the focus is on expanding the user access to PUMIS within PAGASA and collection of data and metadata in order to fully implement PUMIS within the year (2016). The future plans for PUMIS include the implementation of a disaster recovery system and geo-map server, purchase of additional active storage with retention of four to five years, purchase of tape archive storage with ten years of data collection, and the setting up of an off-line PUMIS for remote areas with poor internet connectivity.

~~In PAGASA, the use of XML format is still limited, while the format is planned to be mandatory in the meteorological field in the near future.~~

~~(2) [Activity 2-2] Review of Data Format from Automatic Monitoring Stations of the Existing FFWS/FFWSDO~~

The data structure of observation stations used in the following FFWS was reviewed: 1) Pampanga, Agno, Bicol, and Cagayan Rivers; 2) Pasig-Marikina River (EFCOS); 3) Dams in the Pampanga, Agno, and Cagayan River basins under NIA and NPC; and 4) Project Climate Twin Phoenix system for monitoring CDO River, and Flash Flood Alert System developed by the National Disaster Management Institute (NDMI) of Korea for the same river. Operations manuals, sample of rainfall and water level data, data structures, processing algorithms, and program source codes (for each system when available) were collected. Site visits and interviews with the concerned operations staff of each system were conducted. Data management practices as stipulated in the operations manuals vs. data management as implemented by respective operational units for each system were examined.

~~Regarding the FFWSs of 1) above, data of rainfall and water level monitoring stations are collected hourly through the telemetry system in binary format in RFFWCs. The hourly data~~

2-14 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 viewed from the FFWS monitor or printed data are copied by hand into a daily log sheet containing 24 hourly entries of data. The data from the log sheet are then encoded into an MS Excel file where corrections are made to invalid data. At this stage, the data format becomes CSV. During inclement weather condition or whenever there is an impending flood event, telemetry data are immediately encoded in a customized MS Excel worksheet for flood forecasting and warning operations purposes. During such period, received telemetry data are also validated for possible errors. The data are transferred to the HMD database in parallel with RFFWCs in binary format, where the data can be obtained electronically.

Regarding the EFCOS of 2) above, data processing at Rosario Master Control Station of MMDA, and data reception at HMD are similar to the one described in 1) above. However, as the management of the system is under the responsibility of MMDA, HMD of PAGASA does not have the right to process the data in the system, but collect them only.

Regarding the dam water level and discharge data on 3) above, hourly data had been automatically received some time ago; because of the deterioration of the devices or the interference of mobile phone radio wave, such transmission became impossible. At present, PAGASA collects the latest dam water levels, during normal time, from Dam Office by hot-line telephone (VoIP) at 6:00 AM every day which are then posted in the PAGASA website. During flood time, such data collections are implemented more frequently as needed. HMD of PAGASA uses CSV format to share the data with RFFWCs by inputting the received data in MS Excel. While NPC has established a system that enables NPC-HQ to monitor hourly dam water level data, such data are not received by PAGASA-HQ. NIA obtains updated information of its own management office through the PAGASA website described above.

Regarding the observed data of CDO of 4) above, CSV data are sent to PAGASA-HQ through internet. At PAGASA-HQ, such data, as well as data of other organizations and forecasted rainfall data, are analyzed (Flash Flood Alert System), and the results (CSV format) are shared with RFFWC at El Salvador through internet.

In most existing systems, files are created each time an observation is made, such as every hour: Date and time are treated as part of folder names and file names. For example, in Agno and Pampanga systems, files with exactly the same name, such as “rainfall23”, are created every day for each system. Therefore, it would be difficult to tell the affiliation of the data from the name of the file only. If you open the file and look at the file contents, the name of stations would tell you which system the data are from.

The file structure is such that station names are in the first column and different observation items are in the top row. Observed data and calculated values at a time are shown in a page. One page represents a particular moment like a still picture, i.e., it is not time series data. Some cases (such as CDO and KOICA) rainfall and water level data are shown in the same file, and in others (such as Pampanga and Agno), separate files are created for each. The format is similar to the one used in automatic weather stations. It is more suitable for entering observed values at a time and completing a table one by one, because the size of the table is fixed and easy to handle.

2-15 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning In the format used in RIMES and GMMA READY projects, the first column is for the time of observation, and different location and observation items are shown in a row. The contents of the file are updated as new set of observation data is received, i.e., it is time series data. Unlike the format used for AWS, the length of the table can be unlimited, and more appropriate for electronic use.

~~(3) [Activity 2-3] Confirmation of Hydrometeorological Data Format Required by the Concerned Organizations~~

The Meteorological Data Information and Exchange Section of Weather Division had a plan to develop an application that converts meteorological data (CSV) to eXtensible Markup Language (XML) format. The purpose is to send the observed meteorological data to WMO and ICAO for data exchange. The Section Chief said that such an application is to be developed in 2019 and waiting for PAGASA fund. Format used is IWXXM. Meteorological data are exchanged internationally, because air transcends the boundary of countries and the observation data of one country are valuable to other countries.

On the other hand, hydrological data are related to the land, and except in the case of international rivers, they are not often exchanged internationally. In particular, the island country of the Philippines may not receive international request for hydrological data.

In addition, related domestic organizations that use flood forecast and warning normally receive flood information, including the results of analysis, in TEXT format, and the need of using observation data per se is not high.

~~When requested for academic purpose or private business, hydrologic observation data have been provided in CSV format, which is likely to continue.~~

NIA and NPC are tasked with monitoring and notification of dam water level in relation to the procedures found in the Flood Operations Manuals prepared for the Project for Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Dam Operations (FFWSDO) in 2012.

The NIA FFWSDO suffered transmission failures on water level data coming from Magat and Pantabangan dams resulting in the stoppage of the automated transmission of data. Ageing equipment and transmission interference due to the rising number of cellular sites in the vicinity of NIA transmission lines were cited as main causes.

A major change to the procedures of the FFWSDO was attributed to the stoppage of the automated transmission of National Power Center (NPC) FFWSDO data after the 2012 project implementation. Specifically, the problem was not with the data but with the intermittent malfunctioning of the fiber optic line from NPC to PAGASA. Prior to this, all NPC data was seen at PAGASA Head Office.

The stoppage of automated data transmission resulted in the implementation of a “make-shift” manual notification process among the agencies involved in FFWSDO. NIA Head Office was especially affected because the breakdown in transmission meant that it had lost its automated link to its own dam offices. As a result, NIA continues to rely on data from the PAGASA website

2-16 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 in order to prepare its own daily water level report for Magat, Pantabangan, Angat, and San Roque dams.

What used to be an automated hourly provision of dam data has become a manual process of data collection conducted daily at 6:00 am during non-flood watch conditions and with increased frequency (from three times a day to hourly) during flood-watch conditions. The primary sources of dam data are the NPC and National Irrigation Authority (NIA) Dam Offices. However, during non-flood watch conditions, PAGASA collects dam data from the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) instead of from NPC.

The timing and staffing for manual data collection are affected by the business hours of the participating agencies. It should be noted that not all offices involved in FFWS are mandated to operate 24/7 shifts. For example, PAGASA FFWS Office and NGCP Plant Office operate on 24/7 shifts while the NPC Dam Office hours are from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm and only revert to a 24/7 shift during dam discharge warning operations.

~~(4) [Activity 2-4] Establishment of Standard Data Format Considering Improvement of Development Level in the Future, Expandability, and Efficiency~~

In establishing the standard format, WaterML2.0, which WMO was promoting for international standardization, was selected as a prospective format for consideration. WaterML2.0 is a standard for internationally exchanging data among hydrological observation systems, adopted by WMO and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). WaterML2.0 files are written in XML and can be transported between systems via ftp, email, file copy or http (web protocol). It aims to avoid the situation that each agency related to hydrology develops separate software routines to handle the data formats used by other agencies, which leads to a proliferation of software development tasks, or receiving agencies cannot even read the data because of some non- standard/unspecified feature of the recording media or the data set.

WaterML2.0 is expected to be used not only for international data exchange, but also for the purpose of operational monitoring/forecasting, supporting infrastructure operation such as dams, data publication, and disaster reduction. To use WaterML in the existing FFWSs, however, the current programs must be rewritten. Currently, the use of the format is not obliged, and to become used as the global standard would require time. In adopting the format in FFWSs, PAGASA should carefully review the necessity of sharing hydrological data with other countries.

PAGASA has limited use of data with XML format for the purpose of exchanging data in the meteorological field. However, the experience of dealing with XML format is absent in the hydrological field, and the staff is familiar with the exchange/use of CSV format. In conclusion, the CSV is to be used as the standard format.

The standard data exchange format used in the Hydrological Database of MLIT, Japan is called Water Information Standard Exchange Format (WISEF), which is CSV format. Only station ID and quality code are included as metadata in the format, and the structure of the format is very simple.

2-17 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning PAGASA has started the limited use of AQUARIUS (Aquatic Informatics), a commercially available data management software, which is under consideration for wide introduction to RFFWCs in the future. AQUARIUS can deal with CSV format that includes (i) Location information (Longitude, Latitude, UTC offset, Elevation, and others); (ii) Metadata of time series (Label, Comment, Text, Parameter, UTC offset in minutes, unit, Maximum gap tolerance); and (iii) Metadata of data (Flag, Grade, Interpolation code, Approval code, Username, Comment).

The flow of data input to the database is (i) to create a new location of a station in AQUARIUS; (ii) to create a new time series in the AQUARIUS system, then (iii) to append new data to an existing time series in the AQUARIUS system.

By selecting the data input format of the AQUARIUS system as the standard data format, efficient data input is expected and the capacity of AQUARIUS can be maximized. AQUARIUS can be flexible in dealing with input data structure, and by assigning the data sequence etc. upon input, different CSV format can be accepted. It was judged that the expandability with other existing systems can also be secured.

A standard format for the exchange of hydro-met data between the AQUARIUS HIS integrated database and the existing, as well as forthcoming, FFWS monitoring systems of PAGASA HMD was established. The data exchange format is based on the AQUARIUS 3.1 Acquisition Service API updated on April 8, 2016. This API is a software interface intended for an acquisition system to access and update time series and field visit data in AQUARIUS.

~~Key concepts are:~~

◆ Location vs Time Series Each time series in AQUARIUS is associated with a parent location (sometimes known as a station). This parent location serves as a “container” for one or more time series. Typically, the location is configured to correspond with a real physical measuring location.

◆ Identifiers A location or time series in AQUARIUS may be identified in either Numeric Identifier (a unique numeric identifier (essentially a database primary key) which is assigned by AQUARIUS) or Unique Text Identifier (the full name of the location (the full text name as seen in Springboard in the “Location Name” column)).

◆ General Rules for String Data Unless otherwise specified, all string data is UTF8 Unicode and all byte arrays are UTF8 encoded strings, and any string that contains a comma must be wrapped in double quotes.

~~◆ Methods A method is a series of statements that form a block of code. It is called and executed by a computer program.~~

~~The nomenclature for AQUARIUS location folders, location identifiers, and time series datasets are based on the PAGASA Modernization Plan (PMP) and the requirements of AQUARIUS HIS.~~

2-18 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 ◆ AQUARIUS Location Folders Nomenclature There are three levels of location folders created in AQUARIUS HIS. The PAGASA root folder (Level 1) is titled “PAGASA FIELD OFFICES” (PFO). Within this root folder are eight (Level 2) folders for each PFO designated in the PMP. Each PFO contains (Level 3) folders for the corresponding river basins. Below is a table of the PAGASA location folders created in AQUARIUS HIS. While the river basins (RBs) can be major, principal, or minor, only major rivers are indicated in the table. The name of sub-basins will not appear as the RBs. They can rather be indicated in a Description field in the Location Manager of AQUARIUS, if necessary.

◆ AQUARIUS Time Series Data Set (AQTSD) Nomenclature The AQUARIUS Time Series Data Set (AQTSD) name follows the required format in AQUARIUS HIS: [{Parameter}.{Label}@{Location Identifier}]. Each AQTSD element has a string data type which allows for variable length data. Since this is not numeric, it cannot be incremented. Unique numeric keys for Location Identifier and AQTSD are generated in the database after the AQTSD elements are assigned and saved via AQUARIUS Location Manager.

{Parameter} is the sensor parameter defined in AQUARIUS and it is selected from a pull- down menu. PAGASA HMD utilizes three parameters: “Water Level”, “Precip” (rainfall), or “Discharge” (flow rate).

~~{Label} is a user defined name consisting of four parts with the following format:~~

~~[{Station Name}{WL, RR, or FR}-{Telemetered or Non-telemetered}].~~

~~{Location Identifier} is a user defined name consisting of six parts with the following format: [{PFO}_{River Basin Name}{Station Name}_{Station Type}].~~

~~Figure 2.1.9 summarizes the elements and format of the Location Identifier nomenclature.~~

Nomenclature Format for Location Identifier: [{PFO}_{River Basin Name}{Station ID}_{Station Type}] Location Identifier Elements Description PAGASA Field Office Short Name as indicated below; Tuguegarao City: TGG La Union City: LNN Quezon City: QZN Part 1 PFO Legazpi City: LGZ Lapu-Lapu City: LPL Tacloban City: TCL El Salvador: LSL Davao City: DVC Part 2 “_” Complete river basin name in CAP. Part 3 River Basin Name ex. Agno RB is AGNO Part 4 Station ID Station number assigned by FFWS. Part 5 “_” Tandem (rainfall and water level), WL(water level only), Part 6 Station Type RR (rainfall only), or FR (discharge) Source: JICA Expert Team Figure 2.1.9 Nomenclature Format for Location Identifier

2-19 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning (5) [Activity 2-5] Establishment of Standards for Quality Management of Hydrometeorological Data

In implementing quality management of hydrometeorological data used in FFWSs, the following issues should be considered: 1) Quality should be built into the observation process. No amount of data processing and alteration can efficiently improve the errors made during the observation. 2) Only limited time is allowed for quality control of real-time hydrometeorological data used in FFWSs. 3) The model should be updated/improved based on actual observation data for functional advancement of FFWSs. The data should have the quality which has been rectified, infilled, and improved with time and care. Considering the above, the Quality Management Standards comprising PART-1 OBSERVATION, PART-2 REAL TIME DATA, and PART-3 ARCHIVE DATA were formulated referring to a number of WMO guides, manuals, and textbooks on hydrometry. With regard to data validation, particular reference is made to AQUARIUS Help Manual (Aquatic Informatics Inc.). Contents are presented in Table 2.1.9.

Table 2.1.9 Composition of Quality Management Standards PART-1 OBSERVATION PART-2 REAL TIME DATA PART-3 ARCHIVE DATA (QMS-1) (QMS-2) (QMS-3) I. General I. General I. General I.1 Observations I.1 Quality Check of Real Time I.1 Archive Data and Flood I.2 Observation Stations Data Forecasting I.3 Station Visit I.2 Time Consistency I.2 Archive Data and Real I.4 Maintenance Activities I.3 Data Alteration Time Quality I.5 Flood Time Gauging I.4 Maintenance Work Management II. Water Level I.5 Responsibility and Reporting I.3 Responsibility II.1 General Requirements II. Water Level II. Validation II.2 Water Level Measurement II.1 Water Level Data Quality II.1 Use of Recorded Data II.3 Water Level Instrument II.2 Real Time Data Acquisition II.2 Re-examination of Data II.4 Observed Water Level Data (Water Level) Altered in Real Time II.5 Maintenance and Inspection of II.3 Real Time Graph Drawing II.3 Validation Techniques Water Level Stations (Water Level) III. Rating Curves III. Rainfall II.4 Real Time Data Checks IV. Statistics II.1 General Requirements (Water Level) II.2 Rainfall Measurement II.5 Missing Data Estimation II.3 Rain Gauge Instrument (Water Level) II.4 Observed Rainfall Data III. Rainfall II.5 Maintenance and Inspection of III.1 Rainfall Data Quality Rain Gauges III.2 Real Time Data Acquisition IV. Discharge (Rainfall) IV.1 General Requirements III.3 Real Time Data Checks IV.2 Conditions of Location (Rainfall) IV.3 Discharge Measurement III.4 Missing Data Estimation Instrument (Rainfall) IV.4 Observed Discharge Data IV.5 Validation of Discharge Data Source: JICA Expert Team

~~The relationships of the above three parts, i.e., QMS-1, QMS-2, and QMS-3, are schematized in Figure 2.1.10.~~

2-20 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Quality Management Standards Chapter 2

~~QMS 1~~

~~Observed raw data~~

~~QMS 2 Q. Checked Real Time data Threshold setting FFWS~~

~~Logger Database data~~

~~Upload/ QMS 3 update~~

~~Archive data Re-calibrate~~

~~Source: JICA Expert Team~~

~~Figure 2.1.10 Relationship of Quality Management Standards~~

~~(6) [Activity 2-6] Establishment of an Integrated Hydrometeorological Database, and Input of the Hydrometeorological Data with the Standard Data Format~~

Prior to establishing an Integrated Hydrometeorological Database, the requirements of hydrological information systems described in the WMO report entitled “Hydrological Information System (HIS) Requirements and Inter-Comparison of Commercially Available Systems” were evaluated for the necessity in data management system to be introduced in PAGASA’s FFWSs.

PAGASA’s hydrologists were asked to fill in the questionnaire on the functionality and processes that a hydrometeorological information system must possess. The questionnaire was prepared using 179 requirements included in the above report. Requirements were classified into (i) High Level Requirements; (ii) Mandatory Requirements; and (iii) Ratable Requirements.

Eleven PAGASA’s hydrologists expressed their views by evaluating the requirements in accordance with the following criteria: (a) I strongly agree that the requirement is included. The requirement is indispensable. (b) I agree that the requirement is included. It is good to have such a requirement. (c) I do not care. It does not matter. (d) I disagree. The requirement is not applicable. (e) I do not know. I do not understand the requirement. Completion of the questionnaire should have assisted the PAGASA’s hydrologists to understand what kinds of functions should be considered in establishing (or selecting commercially available) hydrological information system. In addition, a number of comments included in the completed questionnaires provided important reference information in establishing/purchasing a system.

~~Almost all requirements received the evaluation of either “(a) I strongly agree that the requirement is included. The requirement is indispensable” or “(b) I agree that the requirement~~

2-21 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning is included. It is good to have such a requirement.” None of the requirements received “(d) I disagree. The requirement is not applicable.” or “(e) I do not know. I do not understand the requirement.” The questionnaire survey indicated that these requirements are relevant in establishing an Integrated Hydrometeorological Database for the flood forecasting and warning system in PAGASA.

In the summer of 2017, PAGASA made budgetary request for the following projects (for FY 2018): 1) Establishment of an Integrated Hydrological Data Management System for Flood Forecasters 2) Establishment of the IT infrastructure of the Hydrologic Decision Support System (HDSS) of the Hydro-Meteorology Division In 1) above, as software that treats hydrological time series data, AQUARIUS of AQUATIC INFORMATICS (17 licenses, time of delivery in August 2018) was envisaged. As hyper- converged servers were to be introduced in HMD and 17 RFFWCs (time of delivery in June 2018) in 2) above, the software is supposed to run in combination.

Considering the above situation, the activity of Integrated Hydrometeorological Database establishment was redesigned in such a way that, under the condition that the software (AQUARIUS) is going to be introduced in the above project, the mechanism of converting existing FFWS data into the format that can be dealt with by AQUARIUS in real time shall be established. This allows AQUARIUS in RFFWCs to function as an integrated database immediately after its introduction.

While the above PAGASA projects did not materialize during the period of this Project, the existing AQUARIUS software of HMD is to be utilized as the Integrated Hydrometeorological Database, on which all the data of the Project river basins would be integrated.

For data integration on AQUARIUS, observed data could be manually uploaded through periodical batch processing, or appended real-time automatically. Different modes of real-time data appending onto AQUARIUS were examined and implemented in trial bases, which were: i) Data integration using AQUARIUS Hot Folders through Line Printer, Decoder and FTP server (Pampanga, and Agno RBs); and ii) Automatic appending using AQUARIUS Acquisition API (Bicol RB). The mode ii) above is more preferable, because AQUARIUS Hot Folders are originally meant for manual uploading and may not support heavy automatic loading considering that the number of stations will increase rapidly in the future.

~~The real-time acquisition in the Project river basins is summarized in Table 2.1.10. The information on the Bicol River basin is added, as AQUARIUS Acquisition API was utilized first there.~~

2-22 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

~~Table 2.1.10 AQUARIUS Acquisition Type in the Project River Basins~~

~~Funded By/ AQUARIUS Acquisition Source File River Basin Type Qty Contractor Type Location~~

~~Pampanga JICA/ Rainfall 17 FTP/ File Synch/ Decoder Server JRC Water Level 10 AQUARIUS Hot Folder in HMD~~

~~Agno JICA/ Rainfall 11 FTP/ File Synch/ Decoder Server JRC Water Level 8 AQUARIUS Hot Folder in HMD~~

Cagayan JICA/ Rainfall 5 Not functioning JRC Water Level 5 FFWS server in Cagayan de Twin Phoenix/ Rainfall 6 Web service MPRSD El Oro 7Lakes Water Level 4 (SOAP/WSDL/XML) Salvador Pasig- KOICA/ Rainfall 18 FTP/ File Synch/ JFReeDAM FTP Marikina TOCONET Water Level 15 AQUARIUS Hot Folder Server in HMD

~~Bicol JICA/ Rainfall 12 Web service Aggregator PC JRC Water Level 7 (SOAP/WSDL/XML) in HMD Source: JICA Expert Team~~

~~(7) [Activity 2-7] Application of the Quality Management Standards to the Integrated Hydrometeorological Database~~

For the data stored in the HMD database through the mechanism of uploading real-time data in the database (AQUARIUS) or in a batch process manually, Part 3 (ARCHIVE DATA) of Quality Management Standards is being implemented. Data storage performance is being managed using an Excel file (Figure 2.1.11), in which data appended months and data archived (after applying the Quality Management Standards) months are color-coded.

~~Source: JICA Expert Team~~

~~Figure 2.1.11 Data Storage Performance Management Excel File~~

Part 1 (OBSERVATION) and Part 2 (REAL TIME DATA) of Quality Management Standards are not to be applied to the Integrated Hydrometeorological Database. Part 1 is being implemented in the target river basins. This part is extremely important as it is related to the action to create numerical values to be stored in the database. There is no opportunity yet for

2-23 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning hydrologists to implement Part 2. After the introduction of AQUARIUS in RFFWCs, it should be applied.

~~(8) [Activity 2-8] Investigation of the Existing FFWS Observation/ Communication Equipment~~

The investigation was conducted in collaboration with PAGASA Counterparts from October 24 to 28, 2016. The investigation team visited three offices of PRFFWC, ARFFWC and CRFFWC, seven existing gauging stations, two Repeater Stations, and ten candidate locations for future expansion. In addition, the team visited the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) Magat Dam Office and PLDT-Tuguegarao Branch to collect information regarding feasible communication links from NIA Magat Dam Office via Tuguegarao CRFFWC to HMD/ PAGASA in Quezon City.

~~1) PRFFWC Current Status of Telemetry System~~

The telemetry system was rehabilitated under Japanese Government Fund in 2009 and the overall operational conditions are relatively good as of October in 2016:  All seven rain gauging stations are operational.  As for rainfall and water level gauging stations, 8 out of 10 gauging stations are operational. Arayat and Mayapyap have problems.  Radio interference test using a Spectrum Analyzer was conducted at Arayat Station although no interference was detected during this visit. The records in the PRFFWC and previous test results substantiate that radio interference is the cause of missing data at this station.  Mayapyap Station was inspected to assess the present condition after repeated incidents of theft and vandalism that rendered the station unavailable for several months over the past three years.  PCs and server are still running on Windows XP and Server 2003, which are no longer supported by Microsoft.  PRFFWC personnel cannot retrieve rain and water level data from FFWS server by csv files.  Network switch port 3 and 5 are damaged.  Expansion of gauging stations will be necessary because of the wide river basin.

~~2) ARFFWC Current Status Issues of Telemetry System~~

The telemetry system was rehabilitated under Japanese Government Fund in 2011 and the operational status is relatively good. The following are identified during the visit at the ARFFWC as of October in 2016:  Rainfall: All three gauging stations are operational.  Rainfall and Water Level: All eight gauging stations are operational.  PCs and server are still running on Windows XP and Server 2003 that are no longer supported by Microsoft.  ARFFWC personnel cannot generate csv files from FFWS server for rain and water level data.

2-24 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2  Supervisory terminal is not working. Troubleshooting activities traced the cause to a defective switch port. This was rectified by transferring the defective one to another vacant switch port.  Two units of hard disk drives are damaged. Replacement and repair of these HDDs should be given high priority because once the two working units serving as back- up drives break down, all information from the gauging stations will be gone and can no longer be recovered.  Emergency generator at Cuyapo has been defective and needs repair.

~~3) CRFFWC Current Status Issues of Telemetry System~~

The common issue for all gauging stations is that the system, which started in 1982, has been antiquated after more than 30 years of operation and has been long overdue for replacement:  Although still functioning, the rate of downtime of all five gauging stations for the past three years is already too high.  Spare parts for these equipment models are no longer being manufactured. Maintenance expenses have been increasing to compensate for declining availability in the current telemetry system.  Further, most of the housing structures need repair works such as repainting, repair of wall cracks, etc.  Tumauini and Gamu water level sensors are not functioning.  Antenna masts are relatively in good condition, except for the one in Tuguegarao gauging station wherein excessive corrosion of the base plate is noticeable.  Immediate rehabilitation is necessary for recuperation of full functionality of telemetry system.  Same with PRFFWC, more gauging stations will be necessary because of the wide river basin.

~~(9) [Activity 2-9] Establishment of Repair/Improvement Plan of Malfunctioning Existing FFWS Observation/ Communication Equipment~~

~~1) PRFFWC~~

~~Interference at Arayat Gauging Station~~

It is imperative to secure a frequency license for 140.1500 MHz (TX/RX) from the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC). Currently, PAGASA neglects submitting application of continual use of this frequency to NTC. PAGASA must ensure that this frequency is solely allocated for PAGASA’s operations. Once an interference is identified, documented proof should be submitted to NTC for succeeding actions.

~~Vandalized Mayapyap Station~~

Since there is no way to guarantee security at the current location, it is needed to abandon this site and propose an alternative location either upstream or downstream. Based on the preliminary studies using information provided by Google Maps, there are two candidate

2-25 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning sites - one is to locate at Cesar Vergara Bridge or to locate near San Josef National High School.

~~FFWS Server~~

Since the FFWS server and work stations run on Windows 2003, which is no longer supported by Microsoft, it is highly recommended that PAGASA should initiate steps in upgrading to the latest version of Windows server. The two defective HDD units incorporated in the FFWS server must be replaced too.

~~CSV Files~~

The data aggregator software that converts the raw telemetry data to csv format in real time is only installed in HMD DIC’s FFW Server in Quezon City. In order for personnel in PRFFWC to be able to avail of this feature, it is suggested to replicate the data aggregator software in one work station in PRFFWC. (Note: Through activities for Output-2, a data recorder that can intercept data on printer interface line will be used instead of the data aggregator because the former is cheaper than the latter.)

~~Expansion of Gauging Stations~~

There is a need for additional gauging stations to be strategically distributed to supplement the limitations of the present telemetry system. Upgrading of the present PRFFWC telemetry system will enhance its operational FFW capabilities and further mitigate the impacts caused by river flooding. The preliminary study done by PRFFWC suggests that the current telemetry system should be reinforced with additional two rain gauging stations and four tandem water level and rain gauging stations.

~~2) ARFFWC~~

~~FFWS Server~~

Since the FFWS server and work stations run on Windows 2003, which is no longer supported by Microsoft, it is also recommended that PAGASA should initiate steps in upgrading to the latest version of Windows server. The two defective HDD units incorporated in the FFWS server must be replaced too.

~~CSV Files~~

~~As with PRFFWC, in order for personnel in ARFFWC to be able to avail of this feature, it is necessary to replicate the function of the data aggregator/data recorder software in ARFFWC.~~

~~Engine Generator at Cuyapo Repeater Station~~

The engine generator was damaged by lightning and has been out of service. It was found that the automatic transfer switch was not operational, and the defective components must be replaced immediately.

2-26 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 3) CRFFWC

~~Outdated Telemetry Equipment~~

In 1982, the Philippine government established the Cagayan River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center and the telemetry system has been working for more than 30 years since then and currently cannot render its full functionality of hydrological monitoring in the river basin. Cagayan RFFWC must be wholly rehabilitated due to aging as early as possible to restore the efficiency and promptness of RFFWC services to the local stakeholders.

~~Expansion of Gauging Stations~~

Because of the basin’s topography and vast area, the existing network density must be improved, both in the number of rainfall stations to attain the degree of accuracy in the formulation of basin rainfall and water level stations to properly represent the flow from the various major tributaries entering the Cagayan River. The locations of 11 rainfall gauging stations and 12 tandem stations are additionally proposed from HMDAS with another repeater station in the area to ensure data transmission from the out-post gauging stations.

~~Adoption of X-Band Radar Rain Gauge~~

X-band radar can observe rainfall in areas where VHF/UHF radio cannot reach across such as behind the mountains. Because of the basin’s mountainous topography and vast area, adoption of X-band radar should be effective. Moreover, PAGASA envisions to introduce X-band radars nationwide for strengthening overall flood forecasting capability under the initiatives of the PAGASA Modernization Program.

~~4) Budgetary Schedule~~

Among the issues described above, troubleshooting which requires simple replacement of defective components or rebooting software should be expedited by PAGASA and this should be covered by PAGASA’s own budgetary scheme. Meanwhile, the whole rehabilitation or enhancement/improvement of FFWS will be a financial burden to PAGASA. It is suggested that PAGASA consider possibilities of foreign donors/fund and make budgetary schedule of viable sources of finance to cover the rehabilitation cost.

~~2.1.3.3 Activities for Output 3~~

~~(1) [Activity 3-1] Study on Problems of the Existing RFFWCs and Analysis on Possible Problems of New RFFWCs~~

In order to know the issues involved in the new RFFWC, it is feasible and effective to investigate and recognize firstly the problems of the existing RFFWCs. The activity took place from July to September 2016 through a baseline survey and the results were reported in the “Baseline Survey Report” in September 2016. The overall survey is outlined in Section 2.1.3.7(1).

~~This section provides the analysis results regarding possible issues in developing new RFFWCs, which are anticipated based on the current situations of the existing RFFWCs.~~

2-27 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning 1) Issues Related to Output 1

~~Capacity of Plan Formulation~~

In the course of the collection of information required for the preparation of the Draft Roadmap, it was revealed that documents related to preliminary study on monitoring networks (telemetering) from hydrological aspect and plan formulation have not been accumulated in HMD. Although FFWS are operating in five river basins in Luzon Island, most of them have been installed by means of assistance of Japan and other donor agencies. Therefore, it was also clarified that experiences and know-how for plan formulation have not been substantially transplanted in HMD. For PAGASA to install monitoring networks in 13 new river basins by itself from now on, insufficiency in plan formulation based on hydrological basin characteristics might be a bottleneck. The results of the Baseline Survey could verify that many staff share minds of improvement on this point.

On the other hand, HMD staff has accumulated experience little by little by means of the River Center Project, which is undertaken by PAGASA, and map study of new monitoring sites (rainfall and water level) under NOAH Project (DOST), and the phenomenon of capacity enhancement can be confirmed. Further effective enhancement of capacity is expected by transfer of technology through preparation of the Roadmap and the Medium- term Plans in the current Project.

~~HMD and PRSD~~

In order to accelerate the installation of FFWS and improve the services as well, close coordination between HMD and PRSD becomes even more important now. Although both divisions are placed separately by the organizational reform proposed in PMP and there are some concerns on coordination, the responsible staff of both divisions seems to consistently share their views on the importance of strong coordination.

In addition, the results of the Baseline Survey reported that many PRSD staff pointed out the importance of education and trainings on runoff analysis, development of flood forecasting models, and creating hazard maps. In this aspect, coordination between PRSD and HMD is an issue in the future. It is recommended that both divisions will proceed human resources development as required in coordination to efficiently realize the upgrading of technical skills in hydrological data management, hydrological analyses, and maintenance of monitoring equipment, among others.

~~2) Issues Related to Output 2~~

The present situation of existing RFFWCs was investigated as a part of the Baseline Study. As stated in Activity 2-2 above, the hourly data viewed from the FFWS monitor or printed data are copied by hand onto a daily log sheet, then encoded into an MS Excel file. Dam related data is not electronically shared among organizations, but obtained from dam office through hotline telephone or SMS (text). Considering that most of the observations are being carried out electronically, this is rather inefficient. While corrections may be made to

2-28 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 invalid data at the time of inputting to Excel file, mistakes may also be involved during the exercise, which is not necessarily a reliable procedure.

Many water level sensors were installed higher than the normal river water level. As a result, during low flows, the value of zero continued as the water level observation data. In such case, however, water level is not measured and observation data should not be zero, but missing.

Many FFWS observation devices of the new RFFWC at El Salvador were not properly functioning. Various problems are being encountered, including: (i) observation station induced, such as inappropriate water level sensor height, (ii) faulty solar charge controller induced (no data at night), (iii) inadequate telecom set-up induced, such as frequent data gaps, (iv) unstable and malfunctioning GUI, and (v) others such as security problems.

~~3) Issues Related to Output 3~~

~~a) Telemetry Systems~~

~~Existing Telemetry Systems~~

The telemetry system in CRFFWC has been working for more than 30 years since 1982, servicing start of flood forecast operation and now the equipment and facilities have been obsolete and outdated and no longer able to sufficiently function for hydrological data collection. It must be rehabilitated as soon as possible to restore the full performance of the telemetry system. The telemetry systems in PRFFWC/ARFFWC, meanwhile, are relatively in good conditions without major issues although they will also come to service life soon within a few years and need rehabilitation as well. In addition, the computer operating systems used in FFWS server and operation terminal PCs are outdated with no more software support service from Microsoft.

~~New Telemetry Systems~~

PAGASA has been constructing new telemetry systems under its own budget scheme but there are some issues involved in these telemetry systems such as:  Data missing/gap occur due to unstable radio reception (issue caused by poor radio link design)  Poor quality of locally procured equipment and ancillaries (e.g., defective power supply, corrosion)  Insufficient maintenance service from local vendors/contractors resulting in delay of equipment troubleshooting  Lack of equipment manuals (maintenance affected, the responsibility of document supply is not included in the contract) b) Human Capacity Reinforcement

In recent years, telemetry systems are composed of computer technologies. Maintenance staff have to catch up with these technologies and acquire the necessary skills and knowledge for properly maintaining these telemetry systems. The personnel in the maintenance section need more trainings on computer technology.

2-29 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning c) Maintenance

There is a lack of maintenance workforce because currently telemetry systems have been expanding to the 18 major river basins in the Philippines. Reinforcement/increase of maintenance staff is indispensable and it is also necessary to consider outsourcing for some part of the maintenance works to compensate for the lack of manpower.

~~d) HMTS and ICT Group~~

With the development of computer technology, there are more opportunities and needs for HMTS to work with ICT group for maintenance and repair works of telemetry systems, especially for hydrological data transport from the RFFWCs to HMD. Therefore, HMTS must urgently establish mutual protocol on the collaboration with ICT group. Maintenance responsibilities must be clearly agreed upon by both parties.

~~(2) [Activity 3-2] Analysis of Problems in the Existing Procedures for Information Transmission and Proposal of Efficient Procedures~~

The current status of flood warning dissemination enforced in RFFWCs was investigated through interview and gathering of the related documents. The issues identified in the current flood warning dissemination were discussed and summarized in the report/guidelines where effective methods of flood warning dissemination were suggested.

~~1) Unattended Fax Machines in Government Agencies~~

This is a serious concern since it results in the disruption of relaying the warning to the recipient. These incidents occur outside the working hours in government offices (8:00 AM to 5:00 PM, Mondays to Fridays) wherein the personnel are not obligated to be in their posts. In order to address this issue, it is recommended that all government agencies involved in disaster operations should initiate assigning at least two personnel to be on duty especially during periods of calamities.

~~2) Disruption of Telephone/Internet Service during Calamities~~

This condition is contingent on the state of the existing telecommunication infrastructures in the Philippines. The viable solution that can be recommended at this time is to expedite the government to go for the provision of dedicated telecommunications for use in emergency to attain a level of reliability comparable to developed countries. Also, a combination of plural options should be utilized when relaying warnings or updates to the government agencies.

~~3) Substantial Delays in Receiving SMS Text Messages~~

This condition is actually the result of network congestion or poor service by the telecommunications operator. Sending warnings or critical information via SMS should therefore be considered as a back-up or for redundancy.

2-30 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 4) Technical Terms/Words Used in Flood Warning Messages

Actually, each RFFWC has a template to follow for drafting Flood Advisory (FA)/Flood Bulletin (FB); however, it tends to be complicated due to technical terms for the local common people to understand. Therefore, flood information should be more simplified for better understanding of the recipients. A system for automation on the formulation of FA/FB should be developed for actual implementation. It is also recommended to translate it to local dialects.

~~(3) [Activity 3-3] Preparation of Development Standards for Establishing FFWS according to the Development Level of FFWS~~

The development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS were examined. The development standards described in this clause are deeply correlated with the development goals of each level of the Roadmap. However, the standards show the technical requirements for practical planning and design of the concerned components by development level. Further details are presented in the technical cooperation product “No.8 Development Standards for Flood Forecasting and Warning System”.

~~1) Monitoring Stations and Equipment~~

Aiming at the effective utilization of existing monitoring facilities, which are owned and operated by PAGASA, and considering the trend of current technologies for flood observations, the “monitoring stations” are defined to be “hydrometeorological gauging stations for rainfall and water level observations which automatically (telemetric stations) and/or non-automatically (non-telemetric stations) transmit observed records from the field to the RFFWC, PRSD and HMD for flood forecasting and warning purposes”.

Further, three development levels of monitoring stations were set and detailed technical requirements and typical configuration of the equipment in each development level of the monitoring stations are recommended and summarized as shown in Table 2.1.11 below.

~~2) Data Processing in RFFWC~~

~~Level 1 (Existing):~~

Data management of flood forecasting and warning systems as implemented by RFFWCs was investigated. Operation Manual of Flood Forecasting and Warning System for River Basin (OM-2012) stipulates that the RFFWCs shall encode daily their telemetered hydrological raw data (hourly rainfall and hourly water level data) in electric form as a routine work, which indicates that observed values cannot be obtained in electronic form but they are either shown on a panel with Vacuum Fluorescent Display (VFD) or printed on a paper (refer to Figure 2.1.12).

2-31 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning Data Management Flow as stipulated in OM-2012 telemetered Raw data hourly RFFWC RFFWC Encode Raw data in Primary Process electronic form Historical data daily RFFWC RFFWC Submit Submit Raw data in Primarily electronic form Processed data monthly quarterly HMDAS HMD Hydro. D.B. RFFWC HMDAS FFWS Prepare/Submit quarterly quarterly D.B. Mangmnt Prepare Consolidate Report Raw Data Real- D.B. Mangmnt Consolidate time Collection Reports RT Collection Status Report Status Reports monthly monthly Source: JICA Expert Team

~~Figure 2.1.12 Data Management Flow as Stipulated in OM-2012~~

As of August 2016, the hourly data viewed from the FFWS monitor is copied by hand into a daily log sheet containing 24 hourly entries of data. The data from the log sheet is then encoded into an Excel file where corrections are made to invalid data. It should be noted that corrections made on the raw data by PRFFWC are not reflected in those stored in the HMD database in real time. The site recorded (logger) data were not fully utilized for supplementing missing telemetered data.

~~Level 2 (Intermediate):~~

As RFFWCs are located close to the field, their principal role in data operation continues to be sensing, the reliability of which governs the utility of all the subsequent operations. The real-time rainfall and water level hourly data observed at remote stations are received by RFFWC via telemetry system. Data are also recorded in site recorders located at station shelters. To receive these recorded data, they should be manually collected by RFFWC staff periodically. These electronic data are inputted into the database either automatically (for telemetry data) or manually (for site recorded logger data). All problems and pertinent actions taken in connection with data collection and processing shall be duly noted and recorded in the operation’s log book. Such entries in the log book as well as collected logger data and real-time data corrections made by RFFWCs should be properly communicated to HMD where final validation is made and data are archived in the integrated database.

~~Level 3 (Future):~~

The collected telemetry data shall be subjected to a routine quality control check. For checking real-time data, the Quality Management Standards for Hydrometeorological Data of Flood Forecasting and Warning System Part-2 REAL TIME DATA (QMS-2) should be referred to. The availability of AQUARIUS is a condition for applying QMS-2. Each RFFWC shall be given one license for operating the AQUARIUS Workstation whose ID

2-32 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 and password shall be the responsibility of the Chief of RFFWC. Any relevant skilled staff members of the RFFWC, however, shall be allowed to operate the workstation with proper training on the software, because they use the system in day-to-day work.

The conceptual scheme of hydrological data management in RFFWC is indicated in Figure 2.1.13. It should be noted that AQUARIUS server in RFFWC and the integrated database (also AQUARIUS) in HMD are interconnected with each other. Thus, the observed data altered by RFFWCs, as well as logger data collected by RFFWCs, are automatically communicated to the integrated database in HMD, where final quality management (QMS- 3) is conducted before archiving the data.

~~Data Management in PAGASA Data Logger Ultimate Image~~

~~Telemeter water-level rainfall Quality-checked real-time data maintenance Hydrological Observation~~

~~observation AQUARIUS Flood Forecasting System server + discharge Database Dam Release Quality Periodical Manual Management Append (Real Time) Client Through NPC , NIA RFFWC HMD~~

~~Quality Integrated Management Database (Archive) AQUARIUS server + Database (VM)~~

~~Source: JICA Expert Team~~

~~Figure 2.1.13 Hydrological Data Management in RFFWC in the Future~~

~~3) Data Transmission by Telemetry Systems~~

Through the activities of the project working group, the equipment and facilities of telemetry systems in the river basins are discussed and defined as three levels of telemetry systems considering functionality and efficiency in accordance with the development stages of RFFWC.

~~Level 1:~~

No automated system is available in the river basins and the data is manually collected at the site gauging station. Hydrological data is retrieved manually at the site and transferred from the site to RFFWC through public telephone, Fax, and SMS. The hydrological data transferred to RFFWC/HMD is manually processed by a standalone PC. RFFWC/HMD cannot obtain the data from the site in real time.

2-33 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning Level 2:

Automated telemetry system is in service for collection of hydrological data from the site gauging stations in the river basins and the data can be automatically collected at the RFFWC via VHF radio links or SMS and the observed data transferred to RFFWC is automatically processed and stored in the dedicated server repository. The data can be shared with HMD nearly in real time through IP-VPN leased from TELCO and/or private microwave IP radio network or satellite. Hydrological archive data filed in Excel form are used for flood forecast and analysis.

~~Level 3:~~

In this level, versatile types of hydrological data will be available through adopting remote sensing technologies such as X-band radar rainfall gauge. Data transfer system is provided with broadband network obtaining higher speed data transport and the data transmission will be reinforced by either TELCO IP-VPN or private IP radio links in redundant operation with DICT broadband circuit. 24-hours real-time hydrological data sharing will be realized with a higher reliability and availability between RFFWCs and HMD. The hydrological data once verified and stored automatically in dedicated hydrological database will be used for sophisticated analysis and forecasting.

Table 2.1.11 Telemetry Systems in Accordance with Development Levels Components of System Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 1) Gauging Station ◆ Pressure Type, ◆ Pressure Type, ◆ Pressure Type, Ultrasonic and Sensors Ultrasonic and Ultrasonic and Radar Radar Type Water Level Radar Type Water Type Water Level Sensors, Tipping-Bucket Level Sensors Sensors Rainfall Gauge ◆ Tipping-Bucket ◆ Tipping-Bucket ◆ CCTV Surveillance Rainfall Gauge Rainfall Gauge ◆ Remote Sensing such as X- band Radar Rain Gauge 2) Hydrological Data ◆ Manual Gauging ◆ Automatic Telemetry ◆ Telemetry Data Acquisition in Transfer from Rainfall/Water Data Acquisition Redundancy for Data Gauging Station to Level and Reporting (Data Transmission Transport RFFWC by Public through VHF Radio, ◆ M2M Technology (IoT) Tel/Mobile Phone SMS) (Tel, SMS) 3) Hydrological Data ◆ Public Tel, Fax ◆ IP-VPN ◆ DICT Network Transfer from ◆ Mobile Phone (Tel, ◆ Private Microwave ◆ IP-VPN RFFWCs to HMD SMS) (ARFFWC, ◆ Redundancy Operation PRFFWC) ◆ Satellite 4) Computer Network ◆ Standalone ◆ Network Computer ◆ Sophisticated Computer Computer System System thru IP System such as Cloud System without Computer Network thru IP Broadband Network Network 5) Hydrological Data ◆ Numerical ◆ Numerical ◆ Database Aquarius Processing and Hydrological Data Hydrological Data ◆ Hydrological Database Archiving and (Precipitation, Water (Precipitation, Water ◆ Radar Raw Data Creation of Level) Level) ◆ Radar Image Hydrological Contents ◆ Data Exchange and ◆ River Watch Real-Time Storage by CSV File Surveillance Images ◆ Flood Forecast Modeling ◆ GIS Analysis Source: Development Standards for Flood Forecasting and Warning System / JICA Expert Team

2-34 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 In this background of technological development, the standards of telemetry system will be necessary and therefore drafted as a basis of technical references for the planning and designing of future telemetry systems in PAGASA. The standards aim at the technical guidelines and orientations for HMD/RFFWCs as well as the related departments/sections of PAGASA to be referred to whenever necessary for engineering and designing telemetry facilities in the river basins. The documents have been drafted and distributed to the concerned sections/departments in HMD/RFFWCs although the contents should be updated, whenever necessary, to be adapted for future technological advancement and for further improvement in actual engineering scenarios.

~~(4) [Activity 3-4] Documentation of Guidelines for RFFWC Operations and Assistance in Compliance Monitoring~~

The Operational Guidelines on RFFWC was documented based on the results of Activity 3-1 through Activity 3-3 and delivered to the 11 existing and new RFFWCs as a draft in February 2018. After trial application for six months, feedbacks from the RFFWCs were incorporated. Then it was finalized after repeated minor modifications. PAGASA is supposed to monitor in the future so that each RFFWC complies with the Guidelines. The Guidelines is outlined as follows:

~~1) Background of Formulating the Operational Guidelines~~

PAGASA’s FFWS have been operated in accordance with “Operation Manual of FFWS for River Basin” prepared in 2005 by a JICA project aiming at strengthening of flood forecasting and warning system and strengthening of administration of PAGASA. However, 12 years have passed since its formulation and some contents have become incompatible with the actual operation.

On the other hand, since 2013, PAGASA has been establishing the River Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers (RFFWCs) in the 13 major river basins in addition to the said five river basins. These new RFFWCs also need to start operation of FFWS with a certain level of quality.

Accordingly, there is a growing need for updating the manual by coping with the changing context in terms of recent development of RFFWC and facilities as well as organizational reform to be accomplished through the implementation of PAGASA Modernization Program. The existing manual was therefore updated in the form of a guideline so as to be applicable to all the RFFWCs.

~~2) Concept of Formulating the Operational Guidelines~~

The Guidelines is formulated based on the following concepts: i) The Guidelines is supposed to help the respective RFFWCs to prepare their own operation manual focused on the requirements in their river basins. The Guidelines contains descriptions like “default standards”, so to speak.

2-35 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning ii) The Guidelines is formulated as simple as possible for ease of understanding and future update. Detailed explanations are basically referred to the relevant standards, manuals, formats and so on. iii) The Guidelines is intended for the operational stage rather than development stage. Therefore, planning-related matters are also referred to the relevant documents. iv) The Guidelines is formulated based on the assumption that the RFFWCs’ operations are at Stage 3. FFWS will be developed in a three-phased manner as described in the Roadmap. However, in some situations, the Guidelines focusing on Stage 3 may be far from reality particularly for the newly-established RFFWCs. For such occasions, operations required at Stages 1 to 2 are described as appropriate. 3) Composition of the Guidelines

The Guidelines covers a broad range of items required for the RFFWC operation. It comprises seven chapters and covers all the components of FFWS. The major contents of the respective chapters are summarized in Table 2.1.12.

Table 2.1.12 Composition of the Operational Guidelines on RFFWCs Chapter Title Major Contents Chapter 1: Introduction to the Background / Necessity and Concept of Formulating the Guidelines / Outline of Guidelines RFFWC Establishment / Objective and Components of FFW / Functions of RFFWCs and HMD Chapter 2: Basin Monitoring Operation Status of Flood Watch or Non-Flood Watch Status / Data Collection / Post-flood Investigation / Maintenance and Repair of Monitoring Facilities Chapter 3: Data Management Overall Data Management / Data Transmission from Gauging Station to RFFWC / Data Storage, Quality Check and Processing / Peripheral Equipment in RFFWC / Maintenance and Repair of Data Management Facilities Chapter 4: Maintenance & Maintenance and Management Policy / Maintenance Service / Inspection / Tools Repair of Telemetry System and Equipment for Maintenance and Servicing / Spare Parts Maintenance Facilities Management / Maintenance of an Operation Log Book Chapter 5: Flood Forecasting General Procedures for Flood Forecasting / Operation of Flood Forecasting / Flood Warning Criteria Chapter 6: Flood Warning Type of Flood-related Information / Flood Warning Issuance / Contents and Issuance and Dissemination Format of Flood Warning / Flood Warning Dissemination Chapter 7: Organizations and Organization for Operation of FFW / Duties and Responsibilities of RFFWC / Staffing for FFW Services Budgetary Management Related to RFFWC / Reporting by RFFWC Source: JICA Expert Team

~~(5) [Activity 3-5] Documentation of Procedures of Information Transmission to LGUs and Other Concerned Organizations~~

The current status of RFFWC’s operation on issuance of flood warnings was studied and discussed through the PWG activity to document the standard procedure of flood information dissemination from RFFWC to local government agencies. The document aims at standardized procedures for issuance of formatted flood warnings as well as prompt handling of the flood information reaching to the recipients. The draft edition was circulated among HMD and RFFWCs for trial operation. The document is expected to be not only used for RFFWCs but also shared with all the concerned local government agencies who are directly involved in mitigating flood disaster through implementation of precautionary countermeasures and rescue operations. The document was prepared considering the following matters:

2-36 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 1) Issuance of Flood Warnings

The two types of flood warning documents, namely, Flood Advisory (FA) and Flood Bulletin (FB), are prepared during flood-watch period and the contents are standardized as presented in Table 2.1.13 and Table 2.1.14 which are followed by the staff of RFFWCs. FA serves as the initial warning that states that a flood situation is imminent. It contains suggested actions that have to be taken by the residents and the community in the threatened basin. Meantime, FB is specifically addressed for the consumption of the local government agencies to urge the public to be prepared during flood situation. The initial bulletin is issued as soon as the operational situation passes an alert water level in the river. The transition from one operational status to another is based on pre-determined criteria. Succeeding bulletins are issued every 12 hours twice daily (usually 5:00 AM and 5:00 PM) during inclement weather.

Table 2.1.13 Contents of Flood Advisory (FA) Category of Information Description Contents Issuing Organization Name, Address, Website and Logo of PAGASA / Name, Address, Website and Logo of RFFWC Document Information Ref. No. / Type of flood information / Number of issue / Target river basin and areas / Date & time of issuance / Validity period / Prepared by Hydrometeorological Information Factors of rainfall / Average basin rainfall / Areas of concern Awareness Information General basin condition / Expected impact / Advice on precautionary measures to be taken by the public and relevant organizations Source: Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination from RFFWC/ JICA Expert Team

Table 2.1.14 Contents of Flood Bulletin (FB) Category of Information Description Contents Issuing Organization Name, Address, Website and Logo of PAGASA / Name, Address, Website and Logo of RFFWC Document Information Ref. No. / Type of flood information / Number of issue / Target river basin and areas / Date & time of issuance / Validity period / Prepared by Hydrometeorological Information Factors of rainfall / Average basin rainfall / Basin expected response (water level station / water level / flood situation message / Low-lying areas) / Possible coastal flooding Awareness Information Advice on actions to be taken by the public and relevant organizations Area map Expected flood situation / Gauging stations / Basic map with basin boundary, river, water body, etc. Source: Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination from RFFWC/ JICA Expert Team

~~2) Flood Warning Dissemination~~

The standard flow of flood warning dissemination is suggested in Figure 2.1.14. The RFFWCs are encouraged to follow this flow of information as reference. RFFWCs are allowed to establish their own flow of information adaptive to their own respective conditions although the following protocols must be maintained in all circumstances.  All RFFWCs are expected to send documented copies (either by email or fax) of their FAs and FBs to HMD.  All RFFWCs directly sends the FAs and FBs to the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Councils (DRRMCs), either at the regional or city level.

2-37 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning  An organized method of disseminating the information to the residents in the affected areas is the responsibility of the DRRMC.

~~Source: Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination from RFFWC/ JICA Expert Team~~

~~Figure 2.1.14 Reference Flow of Flood Warning Dissemination~~

~~3) Communication Tools Used for Flood Warning Dissemination~~

The communication networks and tools which are available for flood warning dissemination are compared as shown in Table 2.1.15 and Table 2.1.16. In all types of communications, it is essential that there must be mutual acknowledgement of exchanges between sender and receiver. Also, it is suggested to secure duplicate means of communication in case primary communication fails and secondary one can back up at once.

Table 2.1.15 Comparison of Communication Networks Dependency on Reliability Current Broadband Recurring Network TELCO During Payment Availability Capacity Cost Infrastructure Calamities Under DICT Partially Yes High N/A N/A construction TELCO Fixed Yes Highly dependent No Low Low Landlines Monthly Fixed ADSL Limited Highly dependent Yes Low Low Monthly Mobile Fixed Yes Highly dependent Medium Low Low Network Monthly Satellite Fixed Limited Highly dependent No Very High High Network Monthly Microwave Limited No Yes High N/A N/A Link Source: Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination from RFFWC / JICA Expert Team

Table 2.1.16 Comparison of Communication Tools Applicable Real-time Mode of Type Message Transaction Downsides Usage communication Communication Simultaneous Dispatch Depends on Email FA/FB No One-way thru CC internet quality Voice Vulnerable to Phone Individual Yes Two-way Correspondence calamity

2-38 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

Applicable Real-time Mode of Type Message Transaction Downsides Usage communication Communication Time-consuming to Fax FA/FB Individual/Blast No One-way send Limitation of text SMS FA/FB Message Blast No One way characters UHF/VHF Emergency as Individual/conference on Depends on radio Yes Two-way Radio back-up simplex communication propagation Source: Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination from FFWC/ JICA Expert Team

~~2.1.3.4 Activities for Output 4~~

~~(1) [Activity 4-1] Establishment of Staffing, Monitoring Equipment and Hydrometeorological Data Transmission Plans in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins~~

~~1) Development Level to be Considered in Planning~~

Planning of staff deployment, monitoring devices installation, and hydrometeorological data transmission for the Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC is largely related to the draft Roadmap and the draft Medium-term Plans, which are prepared though Activities 1-4 and 1-5, respectively.

The Roadmap presented that the respective seven components of FFWS will be developed in a three-phased manner. The Staff Deployment Plan, Monitoring Devices Installation Plan, and Hydrometeorological Data Transmission Plan are respectively connected with the three components of the Roadmap, i.e., i) Staffing and Human Resources Development, ii) Monitoring Network, and iii) Data Transfer System.

In the course of the preparation of the Roadmap, the development levels (goals) for planning of these components were set as tabulated in Table 2.1.17. These goals were referred to for planning in the target project area as well.

Table 2.1.17 Development Levels for Planning (Staffing and Human Resources Development, Monitoring Network and Data Transfer System) Staffing and Human Resources Stage Monitoring Network Data Transfer System Development ◆ Minimum number of personnel ◆ Minimal number of monitoring ◆ Data is transferred through (up to five personnel) are stations of rainfall and water level telephone, Fax, e-mail and/or deployed. is available. SMS. Minimal number of personnel is to The development target includes not Data at monitoring stations, be deployed so as to operate the only manual reading station but also manually transferred to HMD via FFW system components facilitated automatic recording station by river center through telephone, Fax, Stage 1 in RFFWC to be developed in Stage sensors for rainfall and water level at internet and/or SMS. 1. Personnel is to be composed of 2- independently established stations Hydrometeorologist, one (1) for the unconnected by telemeter. In telecommunication system, and two general, only minimum network is (2) for the data management system. available to monitor flood conditions in prioritized urban area.

2-39 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Staffing and Human Resources Stage Monitoring Network Data Transfer System Development ◆ Number of staff is increased to up ◆ Monitoring network is configured ◆ Automatic data transfer through to 10 personnel. by telemeter system to monitor telemeter system from G/S to Required number of personnel is to flood and weather conditions at RFFWC and from RFFWC to be deployed so as to operate the river center. HMD including dam FFWS FFW system components facilitated Rainfall and water level gauging offices of NIA/ NPC is made. in RFFWC to be developed in Stage stations are connected by telemeter Real time data transfer is partially 2. Personnel is to be increased system to cover most of the flood possible. during this Stage 2 to a total of ten vulnerable areas and real time data Automatic data transfer is available Stage 2 personnel by the end of this stage. are available at river center to watch through telemeter system (through weather and flood conditions. VHF radio, SMS, satellite, etc.) established in respective river basins. In particular, data transferred to RFFWCs can be partially shared in real time with HMD of PAGASA headquarters in Quezon City by using IP-VPN and/or private micro network. ◆ Number of staff is increased up to ◆ Telemeter system is further ◆ Data transfer system is 13 personnel. enhanced by contemporary sophisticated and duplicated by Number of personnel is required to technology such as rainfall radars adopting IoT, remote sensing, and increase up to 13 personnel by and satellite weather data, etc. DICT backbone. increasing with three staff so as to In addition to supplemental LPWA (low power wireless access) meet requirements to operate the conventional type of monitoring data transfer is used for IoT. Real- FFW system enhanced in RFFWC devices, radar rainfall and weather time data to be shared among that reached the Stage 3 level. information obtained by satellites RFFWCs, HMD and other agencies Stage 3 become available and utilized for concerned such as regional offices of FFW. This technology contributes to central government, local covering ungauged areas as well. governments, etc. Data is transferred in redundancy by introducing IoT and/or remote sensing. Besides, DICT backbone is established between RFFWC and HMD for use duplicated with IP-VPN. Source: JICA Expert Team

~~2) Staff Deployment Plan~~

Following the formulation of the staff deployment plan applicable for the 18 river basins, the staff development plan for the target river basins was prepared. The development plan for the designated number of staff concerned in the target river basins was formulated in accordance with the said staff deployment plan for the 18 river basins in the following manner: i) To assume major tasks of the respective RFFWCs after completion of the development program including hydrological observation/analysis, operation and maintenance of telecommunication network, data management, and flood forecasting and warning. The O&M of telecommunication system covers the telecommunication system/solar power supply, microwave radio IP-VCN/computer network system, engine generator system, and X-band radar/CCTV river surveillance. Meanwhile, the data management system covers the data system’s O&M, data management, and analysis and simulation. ii) Required number of staff of each RFFWC was determined so as to execute the tasks mentioned in i) above. The determined staff’s number was further examined in consideration of requisites for fulfillment of each task as well as various conditions concerned incorporating PMP target as well.

2-40 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 iii) In the Roadmap, grouping and prioritization of the 18 river basins were done based on the evaluation and examination of the basins from various viewpoints. In the prioritization into three groups, i.e., Groups A, B and C, the Cagayan de Oro River basin is classified into Group A, while the Tagoloan is in Group B. However, the Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC was assumed as RFFWC in Group A although it is assumed in the PMP as the smallest RFFWC in terms of the number of staffs. The staff deployment plan by development level and tasks was formulated as shown in Table 2.1.18 in accordance with the stage-wise development plan for Group A in the Roadmap, in which the present situation of the Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC is presented as well as number of staffs targeted in the PMP.

Table 2.1.18 RFFWC Staff Deployment Plan by Development Level (Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC) (number of staff) Target of Roadmap Present PMP 1st Yr. 2nd-4th Yr. 5th-6th Yr. Number Year Beg.2019 End 2019 2020 2021 - 2023 2024 - 2025 in Target Stage Year of - - Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Work Field Development Hydrologic 3-Weather 1-Hydrologist 1 / (1) 0 / (1) 0 / (1) 1 Observation, etc. Specialist 1-Hydro-aide FFW 1-Weather 1 / (1) 2 / (3) 1 / (4) 4 Facilities Tele- 1 for 2 for 1 for Technician communication • Telemetry • Microwave • X-band 1-Meteoro- system/ Radio radar logical Aide 4 Solar power • Engine / CCTV / (1) generator / (4) / (3) Data 1-IT staff as - 2 for 1 for 1 for Management Job-order basis • Database • Analysis & • Analysis & O&M Simulation Simulation 4 • Data A B management / (3) / (4) / (2) Total by Stage 3 5 5 ( 5 ) 5 ( 10 ) 3 ( 13 ) 13

Notes: 1. Figures in thick letter in each column show the number of staff(s) to be deployed at the respective stages; 2. Figures in parenthesis show the total number of staffs at the end of the respective stages. Source：JICA Expert Team

The staff development plan for the Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC in the target river basin was formulated comprising the above staff deployment plan and the staff training plans including “RFFWC’s tasks, required skills and knowledge” and “Required training for RFFWC’s staff”, whose details are presented in the Roadmap. The staff training program by development stage is applicable for all RFFWCs in the 18 river basins.

~~3) Monitoring Devices Installation and Hydrometeorological Data Transmission Plans for the Cagayan de Oro River Basin~~

The existing telemetry system called Twin Phoenix System was introduced in 2014 to monitor the upstream to downstream portion of Cagayan de Oro River for early flood warnings. However, this system has been failing frequently since the start of operations. Then, a new scheme of another telemetry system funded by JICA came in 2017 and the site

2-41 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning investigation was conducted under the project entitled “Preparatory Survey on the Project for Developing Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Cagayan de Oro River Basin”, in which site constructions are expected to start in the forthcoming years.

~~i) Existing Twin Phoenix System~~

The telemetry system consists of telemetered automatic rain and water level gauging stations (employing pressure-type WL sensors). The readings are transmitted via a digital VHF radio network to the RFFWC. The outline of the Twin Phoenix Telemetry System is summarized in Table 2.1.19.

Table 2.1.19 Outline of Twin Phoenix System Item Outline of the System Finance Resource United Nations Development Program Monitoring Station: 1 site (RFFWC) VHF Radio Repeater Station: 1 site System Configuration Rainfall and Water Level Gauge Station: 1 site Water Level Gauge Station: 3 sites Rainfall Gauge Station: 5 sites Data Transmission VHF Radio: 162.35 MHz Contractor Seven Lake (Philippine company) Commencement December 2014 Source: JICA Expert Team

~~ii) Future JICA Grant System~~

The design is featured on the conventional telemetry system combined with X-band radar rain gauge system that can observe rainfall volume accurately in the remote mountain areas of the south part of Cagayan de Oro River basin. The system also includes conventional ground sensors in which radar data can be calibrated for accuracy and the radar system can enhance observation/analysis capability as for rainfall in Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River basins. The outline of the JICA Grant Telemetry System is summarized in Table 2.1.20.

Table 2.1.20 Outline of JICA Grant System Item Outline of the System Finance Resource Japanese Government, JICA Grant Monitoring Station: 1 site (RFFWC) VHF Radio Repeater Station: 2 sites Microwave Repeater Station: 2 sites (same sites as VHF Repeater) System Configuration X-band Radar Sites: 2 sites (same sites as VHF Repeater) Rainfall and Water Level Gauge Station: 7 sites Rainfall Gauge Station: 6 sites Data Transmission VHF Radio and Microwave Repeater Combined Commencement Operation slated in 2020-2021 Source：JICA Expert Team

~~iii) Development of FFWS in Cagayan de Oro River Basin~~

As explained in the previous paragraph, the JICA Grant System is planned to start operation in 2020-2021. Once the operation of the JICA Grant System has materialized, the existing Twin Phoenix Telemetry System can step down and serve as back-up for the collection of

2-42 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 ancillary data and the JICA Grant System will take full functionality of RFFWC prime services, provided with X-band radar that can contribute to early flood forecast and warning in the region.

~~iv) Data Transmission to HMD~~

About 2 to 3 Mbps bandwidth per one X-band radar will be necessary for raw data transport. 6 Mbps for X-band data obtained by two sites plus 4 Mbps for other hydrological data gathered by conventional ground sensors, VoIP conference, and others, or a total of 10 Mbps will be the required data speed to HMD. Considering the bandwidth requirements, reliability and economy, IP-VPN will be the recommended option under the current situation. DICT Broadband Backbone is another recommendable method of communication in the future although it is currently under planning stage, and not yet available for practical use.

~~4) Monitoring Devices Installation and Hydrometeorological Data Transmission Plans for the Tagoloan River Basin~~

PAGASA has been planning to install monitoring equipment in Tagoloan River basin that was provided by JICS in 2014 and started the process of tendering for prospective local contractor. However, PAGASA has been consuming time to realize the implementation of the project due to technical and procedural issues. The JICA Expert Team has been assisting them in solving the issues during this period. The project implementation began in early 2018 and installation work was completed in November 2018. The actual operation is starting in 2019.

~~i) JICS Tagoloan System~~

Sensor equipment and accessories such as antenna, steel pole, etc. were supplied under JICS grant. PAGASA is responsible for the procurement of VHF radios and system integration. The outline of the JICS Tagoloan Telemetry System is summarized in Table 2.1.21.

Table 2.1.21 Outline of JICS Tagoloan System Item Outline of the System Finance Resource JICS combined with PAGASA own budget Monitoring Center: 1 site (Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC) VHF Radio Repeater Station: 3 sites System Configuration Weather Station: 1 site Water Level Gauge Station: 5 sites Rainfall Gauge Station: 5 sites Data Transmission VHF Radio: 150 MHz band, Digital Duplex Contractor Massive (Philippine company) Commencement Commencement expected in early 2019 Source：JICA Expert Team

~~ii) Data Transmission to HMD~~

~~The Tagoloan site data will be gathered through VHF radio links at Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC, the same monitoring center collocated with Twin Phoenix and the~~

2-43 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning future JICA Grant System. The river water and rainfall data once processed at the dedicated server in the monitoring center will be forwarded to HMD. OpenVPN (Virtual Private Network) is available for connection to HMD under the current condition. After completion of the JICA Grant System, the data communication channels will be integrated to IP-VPN as described in paragraph 3) iv).

~~(2) [Activity 4-2] Check of H-Q Curves and Draft Flood Warning Water Levels Prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC, and Establishment of Flood Warning Water Levels~~

~~1) Confirmation of Current Status of H-Q Curves and Flood Warning Water Levels at Observation Stations in the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins~~

After the commencement of the work in the Philippines, the JICA Expert Team conducted interviews with HMD, MPRSD and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC, and confirmed the current status of H-Q curves and Flood Warning Water Levels (FWWLs) at the existing water level gauging stations in the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins.

In the Cagayan de Oro River basin, NDMI and Twin Phoenix individually installed Flood Forecasting and Warning System (FWWS). The system of NDMI has one water level gauging station (Puntad WL), while the system of Twin Phoenix FFWS has four stations (Tuguanao (Pelaez Bridge), Tumalaong, Mambuaya, Basak (Taluban Bridge)). At these stations, no discharge measurement has been conducted. Thus, no H-Q curve has been developed. On the other hand, FWWLs are already set at these stations in the Cagayan de Oro River basin. Table 2.1.22 shows the list of FWWLs provided by Cagayan de Oro City DRRMC. At the four stations of Twin Phoenix, HMD already set three FWWLs: Alert; Alarm; and Critical Levels, by complying with the operation manual published by PAGASA4. In the manual, three FWWLs are determined based on river channel capacity of 40%, 60%, and 100% at a gauging station, respectively. However, according to HMD, they recently determine Critical Level as 80% of river channel capacity, not 100%, by considering actual site conditions. Therefore, Critical Levels of Twin Phoenix were determined applying 80% of the river channel capacity. At other gauging stations, only Alarm and Critical Levels were set. However, the reason for the setting could not be confirmed through the interviews.

Table 2.1.22 FWWLs of the Existing WL Gauging Stations in Cagayan de Oro River Basin No. Station Alert Level Alarm Level Critical Level Remarks 1 Taguanao (Pelaez Bridge) 15.23 m 17.92 m 20.47 m Twin Phoenix 2 Mambuaya 108.58 m 109.63 m 110.73 m Twin Phoenix 3 Tumalaong 110.69 m 111.14 m 111.58 m Twin Phoenix 4 Basak (Taluban Bridge) 457.61 m 459.45 m 460.93 m Twin Phoenix 5 Cabula Bridge Not Determined 48 m 49 m 6 Puntod Not Determined 4 m 5 m 7 Kagay-an Bridge Not Determined 4 m 5 m 8 San Simon Not Determined 3.5 m 4.5 m Source: Cagayan de Oro City DRRMC

~~4 PAGASA, Operation Manual of Flood Forecasting and Warning System for River Basin (Document Ref. No. FFE_WI04), November 2005~~

2-44 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 In the Tagoloan River basin, no FFWS has been installed. In 2018, PAGASA installed monitoring equipment that was donated by JICS in 2014. However, warning water levels have not been determined.

The NOAH project installed three gauging stations in the Cagayan de Oro River basin (Cabula Bridge, Bubunawan Bridge, CDO Bridge) and one station in the Tagoloan River basin (Tagoloan Bridge). However, discharge measurement and the setting of FWWL have not been conducted.

DPWH basically establishes one water level gauging station in each major 18 basins, and the established stations in the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins are Cabula Bridge and Sta. Ana, respectively. These stations are managed by DPWH-Region X. Water level observations (two times a day) are conducted by gauge readers. In addition, discharge measurement and development of H-Q curves are done by DPWH-Region X. However, no FWWLs are set at these stations.

~~2) Determination of Observation Stations for Flood Forecasting and Warning~~

Field visits to the two target river basins were jointly conducted by MPRSD and the JICA Expert Team. Through the discussion with HMD as one of the activities of PWG-C, observation stations for FFW were determined. Table 2.1.23 shows a list of the observation stations with selection reasons, and Figure 2.1.15 shows their locations. In addition, the major selection criteria considered are shown below. Four stations and two stations are selected in the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins, respectively. Although some stations are overlapping with the existing systems and DPWH’s stations, these stations were finally selected by considering importance for FFW and keeping consistency with PAGASA for operation and maintenance activities.

[Major Selection Criteria]  Important location from the viewpoint of FFW’s objectives and flood runoff characteristics, considering distance to flood prone areas in the downstream, river network, flood propagation time, rainfall characteristics, etc.  Location with bridge that can be used for flood discharge measurement by float method  Location with easy access for observation and maintenance

~~Table 2.1.23 List of Observation Stations for Flood Forecasting and Warning Basin No Station (River) Reason of Selection~~

CDO1 Pelaez Bridge  To monitor flood water from most areas of the mainstream and (CDO River) tributaries before reaching to the flood prone areas in CDO City. This station is most important for FFWS because flood water monitored there directly hit the flood prone areas.  There is a bridge that can be used for flood discharge measurement by float method. CDO2 Cabula Bridge  To monitor flood water level at the middle part of the (CDO River) mainstream, after the confluences of major tributaries, except Bubunawan River.  There is a bridge that can be used for flood discharge Cagayan de Oro River Basin Cagayan River de Oro measurement by float method.

2-45 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Basin No Station (River) Reason of Selection CDO3 Uguiaban Bridge  To monitor flood water level at the middle part of the (CDO River) mainstream, after the confluence of Bulanog River, one of the major tributaries.  There is a bridge that can be used for flood discharge measurement by float method. CDO4 Liboran  To monitor flood water level at the downstream part of (Bubunawan River) Bubunawan River, which is supposed to contribute huge amount of flood discharge to the downstream areas, before the confluence of the mainstream.  Easy to access the site by road

T1 Santa Ana  To monitor flood water from most areas of the mainstream and (Tagoloan River) tributaries before reaching to the flood prone areas in Tagoloan Municipality. This station is most important for FFWS because flood water monitored there directly hit the flood prone areas.  Easy to access the site by road T2 Dalirig  To monitor flood water level at the middle part of the (Tagoloan River) mainstream, after the confluences of major tributaries.

~~Tagoloan River Basin River Tagoloan  Easy to access the site by road Source: JICA Expert Team~~

~~Source: JICA Expert Team~~

~~Figure 2.1.15 Location Map of Observation Stations for Flood Forecasting and Warning~~

~~3) Check of H-Q Curves and Draft of Flood Warning Water Levels Prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC~~

H-Q curves and FWWLs at the observation stations were set jointly by MPRSD and HMD through the PWG-C activities. Data collected from sub-contract works, such as river cross sections and discharge measurement results, were used for the preliminary setting.

Field visits were jointly done by HMD, MPRSD and sub-contractors though the PWG-C activities. During the visits, instructions to the sub-contractors, such as sections for river cross section survey and discharge measurement, methodology of field works, safety

2-46 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 precautions during the works, etc., were given by the PWG-C members. In particular, since flood water level and discharge data are important to develop H-Q curves for FFW, the sub- contractor was instructed to conduct discharge measurement during high flows as much as possible. In addition, the JICA Expert Team provided forms of discharge measurement results for both current meter method and float method, and instructed the sub-contractor on how to fill the forms.

Since there were alternations in the environment during the discharge measurement period, both H-Q curve development and FWWL setting need to be considered separately for each period. One of the alternations is typhoon (TY) Vinta and thus, the H-Q and FFWLs were considered separately before and after the typhoon. The other one is bridge construction at Dalirig site, which has three different H-Q curves because the site was changed twice within the project period. Details are described in the Technical Cooperation Product No.11 “H-Q Curves and Flood Warning Water Levels of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins”.

~~Table 2.1.24 and Table 2.1.25 show the results of H-Q curves and FWWLs, respectively.~~

Table 2.1.24 Results of H-Q Curves H-Q Curve No. Station Name River Before TY Vinta After TY Vinta CDO1 Pelaez Bridge Cagayan de Oro River Q=105.55(H-11.73)2 Q=95.41(H-11.29)2 CDO2 Cabula Bridge Cagayan de Oro River Q=150.41(H-39.86)2 Q=99.26(H-38.72)2 CDO3 Uguiaban Bridge Cagayan de Oro River Q=41.87(H-142.35)2 Q=36.33(H-141.62)2 CDO4 Liboran Bubunawan River Q=182.35(H-75.78)2 Q=164.79(H-75.78)2 T1 Santa Ana Tagoloan River Q=73.71(H-25.31)2 Q=79.94(H-24.92)2 T2 Dalirig Tagoloan River 1st: Q=203.36(H-121.14)2 2nd: Q=22.36(H-124.47)2 3rd: Q=22.63(H-124.08)2 Note: The H-Q curve at Dalirig seems not to be affected by TY Vinta, according to the graph comparing both periods before and after TY Vinta. Therefore, the 2nd site actually includes data from November 2017 to June 2018 over the TY Vinta period. Source: JICA Expert Team Table 2.1.25 Results of FWWLs Water Level (El. m) Before TY Vinta After TY Vinta No. Station Name River Max: TY Critical Alarm Alert Critical Alarm Alert Sendong (80%) (60%) (40%) (80%) (60%) (40%) CDO1 Pelaez Bridge Cagayan de Oro River 19.62 18.34 16.96 15.49 18.27 16.82 15.27 CDO2 Cabula Bridge Cagayan de Oro River 49.52 48.22 46.89 45.47 48.12 46.70 45.07 CDO3 Uguiaban Bridge Cagayan de Oro River 150.22 149.44 148.30 146.41 149.12 147.75 145.91 CDO4 Liboran Bubunawan River 80.18 79.42 78.57 77.60 79.42 78.57 77.58 T1 Santa Ana Tagoloan River 30.52 29.89 29.08 28.20 29.79 28.93 27.94 Dalirig (original) 124.94 124.30 123.59 122.76 - - - T2 Dalirig (1.2 km Tagoloan River 135.92 - - - 134.53 132.94 130.88 US) Note-1: Measurement site of Dalirig was shifted to 1.2 km upstream so as to avoid impact of DPWH’s bridge construction. Note-2: The historical maximum water level during the typhoon Sendong at the Dalirig 2nd site (1.2 km upstream) was computed under the assumption that discharge data at 1st and 2nd sites are equal. Based on the 1st H-Q curve, discharge is computed as 2,931 m3/s when water level is 124.94 m. And then, based on the 2nd H-Q curve, water level is computed as 135.92 m when discharge is 2,931 m3/s. Source: JICA Expert Team

2-47 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning 4) Actions Taken for Troubles

~~Staff Gauge and Benchmark Installed at Liboran Gauging Station in Cagayan de Oro River Basin~~

MPRSD and the JICA Expert Team confirmed at the site on 7 April 2017 that one staff gauge and one benchmark installed at Liboran Gauging Station were broken. According to DENR, the lot where these facilities were installed is in the government land categorized as timberland. However, the person who is using the lot for cultivation claims its land ownership. Although MPRSD, Baungon Municipal DRRMC, and Barangay Liboran discussed with the claimant, it is difficult to gain understanding and cooperation of the claimant. In consultation with MPRSD and other related agencies, PWG-C decided to continue discharge measurement at the site because of no direct influence on the field work by the sub-contractor.

~~New Bridge Construction at Dalirig Gauging Station in Tagoloan River Basin~~

The new bridge construction work by DPWH started in October 2017 at the Dalirig Gauging Station in the Tagoloan River basin and makes continuous discharge measurement difficult. For this reason, the JICA Expert Team traveled to Mindanao in November, and discussed with MPRSD, DPWH-X and related agencies. Finally, PWG-C decided to conduct discharge measurement at an alternative point.

The JICA Expert Team observed that information on development activities in river basins, such as hydroelectric power projects, is not fully shared among relevant organizations including PAGASA. PAGASA, an agency responsible for issuing flood forecasting and warning information, should actively grasp information on development activities that may affect flood runoff characteristics. The JICA Expert Team raised awareness of PAGASA on this matter by describing the importance of gathering information on development projects in the context of basin monitoring in the Operational Guidelines of RFFWC.

~~(3) [Activity 4-3] Conduct of Study on Quality Management of Observed Data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins~~

During the field surveys conducted in August 2016 on the existing flood forecasting and warning systems of the Cagayan de Oro River, it was reported that the installed height of submersible pressure transducers was higher than the critical water level at Tumalaong Station.

Mainly due to defective solar chargers and batteries, many rainfall and water-level stations of the Twin Phoenix System were not operational for more than two years, and as of July 2018, only two out of ten gauges were working. Rehabilitation of observation stations in the Cagayan de Oro River was conducted in August 2018, and after the replacement of batteries, almost all stations were transmitting data, while they were not necessarily hydrologically accurate.

To address the problem of the water level sensor not touching the water, the contractor extended the pipe encasing the sensor. Because the cable of pressure transducers contains, in addition to electric wire, a pipe conveying the atmospheric pressure to the sensor, special care should be

2-48 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 given to the extension work. As of January 2019, there were four out of ten stations that were sending obviously erroneous data. The observed water level data were different from the values measured at the site, or data suddenly rise to a high level without rain and keeps there for some time.

As indicated above, data were not properly acquired before implementing quality management of “observed” data. It should be reiterated that observation is of primary importance, and no quality management action afterward can improve the errors made during the observation.

A study was conducted to demonstrate the possibility of checking the quality of observed water level data using data obtained during the typhoon Vinta (December 2017). This consisted a series of procedures of i) assuming time of concentration; ii) calculating basin average rainfall intensity within the time of concentration; iii) taking 3/5 power of the rainfall intensity; iv) converting water level to water depth by subtracting lowest observed water level; v) drawing hydrographs of estimated and observed water levels; and vi) comparing them for possible erroneous water level data.

Assuming that the rainfall intensity for the time of concentration of the drainage area is correct, water level data can be estimated reasonably well. If the observed water level data is vastly different from the estimated one, the observed data is likely to be erroneous.

~~(4) [Activity 4-4] Conduct of Drill on Issuing Flood Warning by Utilizing Data Transmitted from RFFWC~~

The drill was conducted twice after comprehensively taking into account the intent of both Activities 4-4 and 5-4. The 1st drill was conducted in July 2018 with particular emphasis on warning dissemination between the agencies dealing with flood information in the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins. In addition to MPRSD, several Region-X offices and local government offices participated in the drill activity. The 2nd drill was conducted in November 2018 with a focus more on warning issuance; in other words, how RFFWC staff prepares a flood advisory (FA) and a flood bulletin (FB) in a timely and appropriate manner.

The respective drill activities were conducted over two days. Before the drill implementation, a pre-drill briefing meeting was held so all the participants could share the same understanding. And after the drill, a post-drill review meeting was held for discussing issues encountered in the drill and how they should be improved.

~~The outlines of both drill activities are summarized in Table 2.1.26.~~

Table 2.1.26 Outline of Drill Implementation Item 1st Drill 2nd Drill Schedule July 30 and 31, 2018 November 14 and 15, 2018 Place Manila: Main Operation Center in PAGASA-HQ and Field: Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC OCD-NDRRMC Field: Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC and respective offices concerned

2-49 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Item 1st Drill 2nd Drill Objective 1) To identify issues in the following matters pre-defined in manual/guideline  Tasks and duty during flood watch at Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RWFFC  Procedure of warning issuance preparation  Format of flood information to be transmitted (FA/FB) 2) To strengthen the linkage between agencies concerned through the drill activities 3) To get LGUs’ staff to understand who issue flood 3) To get RFFWC’s staff to more deeply warning information and the order in which understand when and how to prepare/ information is issued issue FA/FB 4) To get RFFWC’s staff to more deeply understand to whom flood warning information is issued Participants 1) Key Activity  PAGASA: Project Working Group (PWG) members and responsible personnel for FFWS operation in Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC (or MPRSD)  JICA Expert Team 2) Receipt of Information Only  Central Govt. Agency: PAGASA HMD, OCD-NDRRMC  Regional Offices of Central Govt. Agencies: OCD-X, DPWH-X, DILG-X and PIA-X  Local Government Units: Cagayan de Oro CDRRMC, Tagoloan MDRRMC Scenario Each scenario of weather disturbance and associated responses are drawn up based on the typhoon Vinta, which hit the target area in December 2017, as a model event. Source: JICA Expert Team

Since the 1st drill was carried out with particular emphasis on warning dissemination between the agencies, various feedback mainly in terms of communication means were provided by the representatives of each agency in the post-drill review meeting. The key points are summarized in Table 2.1.27.

Table 2.1.27 Feedback from the Participants in the 1st Drill Activity Responsible No. Issues Identified Enhancements / Improvements Agency In event of actual flood watch, RFFWC  Appropriate number of personnel should be 1 have lots of works, which may exceed discussed, and each role or responsibility RFFWC their capabilities under current manning. should be clearly demarcated.  Log form should be revised to be simpler and concise. FA/FB logging (Records of Message  RFFWC will follow logging with a revised RFFWC 2 Exchanges) is a demanding work in the form but other government agencies can use event of calamity. their existing forms.  Message recipients are responsible for giving Other acknowledgement back to RFFWC. Agencies  Message dispatch list should be updated There were cases where FA/FB was not routinely, and personnel should be assigned to RFFWC received through SMS at some be responsible for the updates. 3 destinations. This may have been caused  Other government agencies must notify by missing names in the SMS dispatch Other RFFWC whenever any alteration of contact list which is used for FA/FBs blast. Agencies details may take place. There may be case that fax receiving is  Fax machine should be set to auto-receive Other unattended especially during off-duty mode. Agencies hours.  There must be redundancy. Email should be RFFWC / Thermal paper output of fax is not good used as priority and fax and SMS as second Other in terms of quality. priority. Agencies 4 It takes time to send fax manually unlike  FA/FB forms through SMS should be simple simultaneous blasting email and SMS. and concise and be standardized. SMS has restriction of message characters  There must be a dedicated workstation RFFWC and message sending queuing. It may be exclusive for flood info issuance to expedite unreachable due to network delay. processing.

2-50 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

Responsible No. Issues Identified Enhancements / Improvements Agency Some government agencies do not have  The recipients should be provided with Other 5 dedicated cellphones for receipt of dedicated cellphones for FA/FBs. Agencies FA/FBs through SMS. Lead time after receipt of FBs (Time  Warning criteria should be discussed 6 allowed for evacuation) is not enough for RFFWC considering possibility of improvement. Cagayan de Oro River basin. Source: JICA Expert Team

On the other hand, the participants in the 2nd drill provided several opinions mainly in terms of documentary forms as follows:  It is necessary to clearly determine how to number the amended FA/FB as in the case of FB where an amended version in SMS was issued due to an erratum in an entry.  An additional column can be added to the format of the dispatch log to identify first priority and second priority agencies.  The information to be included in the FA/FB should be determined by considering the character limitation of the text blast (SMS) facility. The SMS facility can only accommodate 2,048 characters.  The inclusion of the current situation of river water levels in the FA form will provide more useful information for the operations of the different DRRMCs.

The above feedback and opinions were examined and reflected in finalizing the following technical cooperation products and their attached forms: 1) No.7: Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination from River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center 2) No.9: Operational Guidelines on River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center 3) No.13: Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins

~~2.1.3.5 Activities for Output 5~~

~~(1) [Activity 5-1] Production of H-Q Curves at Observation Stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins~~

As described in Clause 2.1.3.4(2) above, development of the H-Q curves and establishment of the FWWLs were performed through PWG-C activities jointly with members of MPRSD and HMD. The results of the series of activities were compiled into the Technical Cooperation Product No.11 “H-Q Curves and Flood Warning Water Levels of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins”.

~~(2) [Activity 5-2] Transmission of Hydrometeorological Data to HMD Periodically~~

Real-time 10-minute data of the Cagayan de Oro River are transmitted to HMD for relaying them to PUMIS. While the mechanism of automatic transmission has been established, observation is not properly made and, in many cases, data are missing. Figure 2.1.16 is the sample file (observed at 15:10, January 21, 2018) containing five stations in total including three rainfall and two water level stations.

2-51 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

~~Source: JICA Expert Team~~

~~Figure 2.1.16 Sample File of Transmitted Observation Data of Cagayan de Oro River~~

In order to transmit hydrological data to the integrated database of HMD, several different methods were studied: 1) Prepare a CSV file in Standard Format to be manually uploaded onto AQUARIUS in a periodical batch process; 2) Convert the automatically transmitted data in the PUMIS format shown above into hourly CSV data format and append on the Hot Folder of AQUARIUS through the FTP server; and 3) Automatic appending using AQUARIUS Acquisition API. The method 1) above, while not automatic, is practical and being implemented. The method 2) was considered not efficient because the data are assembled in a file then dissembled again to create a file containing only a pair of observed time and observed value. The use of Hot Folder in method 2) may restrict the number of stations to be uploaded and frequency of observation. Method 3) above is considered most prospective and, as of June 2019, being tested by the vendor of Twin Phoenix Project.

~~(3) [Activity 5-3] Documentation of Procedures of Information Transmission to LGUs and Other Concerned Organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins~~

The JICA Expert Team, in collaboration with the staff of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC who are directly engaged in the day-to-day activities of flood monitoring and flood warning issuances, prepared the standard procedure of flood information dissemination in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins in accordance with the standard procedure created through Activity 3-5. The standard procedure intends to be uniquely customized to Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC as guideline/reference for their services of flood warning and information dissemination to the concerned local government agencies. The document was prepared considering the following matters:

~~1) Characteristics of the River Basins~~

The Cagayan de Oro River originates from the high mountains steeply downpouring to the comparatively flat area of Cagayan de Oro City. This causes a rapid flood velocity making the area prone to inundation. Tagoloan River has a similar characteristic as Cagayan de Oro River and the area of Tagoloan Municipality is also prone to be flooded in a short time.

~~2) Issuance of Flood Warnings~~

~~The contents of FA/FB and timing of issuance follow the Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination from RFFWC, which was prepared in Activity 3-5.~~

2-52 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 3) Flood Warning Dissemination Flow

Although the information flow is basically the same as the standard one, which is discussed in Activity 3-5, the following protocols must be maintained in all circumstances:  Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC is to send documented copies of FA/FB either by email or fax to HMD.  Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC directly sends their FAs and FBs to Cagayan de Oro CDRRMC and Tagoloan MDRRMC.  Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC directly sends FAs and FBs to the local government agencies such as OCD-X, DILG-X, DPWH-X and others.  An organized method of disseminating the information to the residents in the affected areas is in principle the responsibility of the Cagayan de Oro CDRRMC and/or Tagoloan MDRRMC.

NDRRMC Email Fax Update (support) RDRRMC RDRRMC/PDRRMC RFFWC HMD / OCD-X Members Website DILG PNP, AFP, Update 1st 1st 1st BFP SNS Email Email PIA Fax Email Fax SMS DOH DPWH MPRSD SMS SMS DSWD Others Cagayan de Oro/ LEGEND 2nd Cagayan de Oro Tagoloan RFFWC Direct Email/Fax/SMS 1st CDRRMC Email Acknowledgement Synoptic Upon SMS Tagoloan Stations Request MDRRMC Email / SMS 2nd SMS Talakag, SMS (text blast) Media Baungon, Libona Upon Request SMS Info-Update Manolo Fortich, Radio / Mobile Impasug-ong, Internet TV / Radio Sumlao, Malitbog Info-Provision upon request Media / Internet BDRRMC 1st First priority 2nd Second priority Warning System / SMS Text Recorrida/ Mobile / SMS Blast Households / Communities / Local Residents / Entities / Etc. (General Public) Source：Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins /JICA Expert Team

~~Figure 2.1.17 Flow of Flood Warning Dissemination for Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC~~

~~4) Communication Tools for Flood Warning Dissemination~~

Among all types of communications available, flood warning dissemination should resort to the most appropriate mode of communication. Under the circumstances of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC, internet email will be the standard and prime tool to be used for flood warning dissemination since acknowledgement can be validated easily from the recipient. Then, the next choice is either fax or SMS. The former is a conventional tool of dissemination but not all the local government agencies are provided with the machine. SMS is convenient and easy to use but it has a limitation of sending characters. Other than the above, landline telephone and VHF radio may be effectively used for interactive communications as support in addition to the abovementioned tools.

2-53 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning (4) [Activity 5-4] Conduct of Drill on Issuing Flood Warning to LGUs by Utilizing Observed Data at RFFWC

As described in Clause 2.1.3.4(4) above, Activity 5-4 was conducted in conjunction with Activity 4-4. The feedback obtained from the participants in the drill activities were reflected in finalizing the technical cooperation products.

~~2.1.3.6 Activities for the Overall Project Implementation~~

~~(1) Monitoring Sheet~~

The JICA Expert Team and CP have been monitoring the progress of the Project continuously and on their own initiative through mutual and meticulous discussion. “Monitoring Sheet” was prepared as a tool to compile the monitoring results. The Monitoring Sheet comprises the following three documents:  Form 3-1: Monitoring Sheet Summary  Form 3-2: Monitoring Sheet I (Revision of PDM)  Form 3-3: Monitoring Sheet II (Revision of PO) The PDM and PO attached to the R/D are defined as Ver.0. Immediately after the start of the Project, Ver.1 was prepared by reflecting the detailed work contents and schedule. The Monitoring Sheet has been updated every six months through collaboration between PAGASA and the JICA Expert Team. The status of preparation is summarized in Table 2.1.28, while the respective Monitoring Sheets from Ver.1 to Ver.6 are included in Attachment-2.

Table 2.1.28 Status of Monitoring Sheet Preparation Version Submission Date MM Progress Remarks Ver.0 ------PDM and PO attached to the R/D Ver.1 July 13, 2016 2% --- Ver.2 January 31, 2017 36% --- Ver.2 (Rev) February 7, 2017 --- Revision of Ver.2 by adding a description that Objectively Verifiable Indicators need to be continuously discussed. Ver.3 July 27, 2017 50% --- Ver.4 January 30, 2018 68% --- Ver.5 August 8, 2018 78% --- Ver.6 February 19, 2019 89% Final version of Monitoring Sheet Source: JICA Expert Team

~~(2) Holding of Joint Coordination Committee (JCC)~~

JCC meeting was held eight times with participation of various stakeholders during the project period. The major functions of JCC are: 1) to approve project activity plans, 2) to review the overall progress of the project, 3) to supervise and evaluate the project, 4) to exchange opinions on major issues that arise during the project implementation, and so forth. The major agenda of the respective JCC meetings are summarized in Table 2.1.29. The minutes of meeting (M/M) of the respective JCC are presented in Attachment-3.

2-54 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

Table 2.1.29 Timing and Major Agenda of JCC Name of Monitoring Date Main Issues (except for common issues to all JCC) Conference Sheet  Explanation and discussions on basic policy, contents of 1st JCC July 13, 2016 activities, composition of the JICA Expert Team, organization Ver.1 for implementation, overall schedule, target areas, etc.  Results of Baseline Survey  Results of Capacity Assessment 2nd JCC September 13, 2016 -  Progress of the other studies and surveys  Technology Transfer Plan  Progress of the respective PWG activities  Status of FFWS in the target river basins 3rd JCC February 7, 2017 Ver.2  Advanced project in Mindanao (Tagum-Libuganon)  Approval for the 1st CP training program in Japan  Progress of the respective PWG activities 4th JCC July 25, 2017 Ver.3  Results of the 1st CP training program in Japan  Progress of the respective PWG activities 5th JCC January 26, 2018  Highlights of Tropical Cyclone “Vinta” Ver.4  Results of Mid-term Review  Progress of the respective PWG activities 6th JCC August 7, 2018  Result of the Flood Information Drill Ver.5  Results of the 2nd CP training program in Japan  Progress of the respective PWG activities 7th JCC February 19, 2019 Ver.6  Status of Tagoloan Telemetry System  Results of the Project  Results of Joint Review 8th JCC June 11, 2019 -  Lessons  Recommendations Source: JICA Expert Team

~~(3) Holding of Seminar~~

In addition to JCC, a seminar was convened three times. Each seminar set a particular theme for including presentations on advanced applied technologies of Japan and the Philippines and exchanging opinions on their applicability and versatility. The timing and major topics of the seminar are summarized in Table 2.1.30.

Table 2.1.30 Timing and Major Topics of Seminar No. Date Major Topics of Seminar 1st December 2, 2016 Theme: Role of FFWS in Flood Risk Management 64 participants  Methodology for Setting Flood Warning Water Levels (incl. JICA experts)  For Understanding and Monitoring Disaster Risk Reduction in Locality  PAGASA Modernization Program  Flood Damage by Typhoon Lawin in Northern Luzon in Oct. 2016  Report on Overseas Training*1 in Japan (Sep. – Nov. 2016)

2-55 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

No. Date Major Topics of Seminar 2nd December 4, 2017 Theme: Challenges on Quality Services of Flood Forecasting and Warning 65 participants Dissemination toward Flood Risk Reduction by PAGASA’s New Organization (incl. JICA experts)  Highlights of Major Project Output ➢ Roadmap and Medium-term Plans for Future FFWS Development ➢ Integrated Database System for FFWS ➢ Operational Guidelines on RFFWC  Advanced Applied Technology in Flood Forecasting and Warning System and Services ➢ eTRUST's Flood Monitoring System ➢ System Integrating River Monitoring and Emergency Communication Radio ➢ Status Report and Applications of Weather Radar in the Philippines  Follow-up of the 1st Counterpart Training in Japan 3rd November 28, 2018 Theme: Enhancement of Flood Risk Reduction by Modernized Flood 52 participants Forecasting and Warning Technologies (incl. JICA experts)  Key Profile of Optimization Project  Recent Disaster Prevention in Japan and Foundation of DRRM  Cost Reduction of Monitoring Devices and River Information System making use of Technologies such as IoT  Erroneous Water Level Data Detection Based Upon Catchment Rainfall Note: *1. The training was conducted by JICA separately from the CP training conducted by this project. Source: JICA Expert Team As a participant in the seminar, meteorological-related and disaster-related organizations at the national level, LGUs (local government units) and other concerned organizations were widely invited. The presenters were invited from outside the project as well according to the themes for enhancing the quality of the seminar.

~~(4) Counterpart Training in Japan~~

The counterpart training aims at improving the trainee’s understanding of FFWS in Japan and contributing to the smooth implementation of the project activities. The training was conducted two times in the project period. Both periods are two weeks as listed below. First : from May 14, 2017 (arrival) to May 27, 2017 (departure) (14 days) Second : from June 24, 2018 (arrival) to July 7, 2018 (departure) (14 days) The training was conducted in four forms, namely: lecture [L], site inspection [S], field practice [F], and presentation [P], with achievement goals of technical aspect. The schedules and programs of the 1st and 2nd counterpart trainings in Japan are presented in Table 2.1.31 and Table 2.1.32, respectively.

Table 2.1.31 Schedule and Program of the 1st Counterpart Training in Japan No. Date (Week) Training Program Place 1 May 14 (Sun) [[Traveling]] From Manila to Tokyo － General Briefing 2 May 15 (Mon) JICA Tokyo Orientation by the Consultant Follow-up for Attainment Targets Setting [L] Basic Composition of Monitoring Network and Data Processing Systems for Flood Forecasting 3 May 16 (Tue) Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. and Warning in Japan [L] Theoretical Backbone and Recent Challenges of Flood Prediction Models in Japan

2-56 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

No. Date (Week) Training Program Place [L] Introduction of Flood Forecasting [L] Modernization of Hydrological Services in Japan [L/Demo] Anomaly Detection Technologies Development Foundation of River & Basin [L] Radar Rain Gauges Development – History and 4 May 17 (Wed) Integrated Communications, Future Evolvement Japan [L] Quality Management of Hydrological Observation Data [L/S] Monitoring River Information System [S] Tsurumi River Multipurpose Retarding Basin IIJ (Internet Initiative Japan) 5 May 18 (Thu) [L/S] Various Facilities in Data Center Data Center, Yokohama [L] Weather Forecasting Works [L] Flood Forecasting Works JMA (Japan Meteorological 6 May 19 (Fri) [S] Working Conditions on Weather and Flood Agency) Forecasting in the Office 7 May 20 (Sat) Review and Preparation － 8 May 21 (Sun) Holiday － [L] Hydrological Observation and Water Disaster JICA Tokyo Monitoring/ Prediction 9 May 22 (Mon) [S] Iwabuchi Control Gate Water Level Monitoring Kita-ku, Tokyo Station [S] Inatoi Retarding Basin Moriya City, Ibaraki Pref. [L] River Information System, Integrated Dam 10 May 23 (Tue) Tone River Integrated Dam Management System Management Office, MLIT [S] Library of Dam, Rain Gauge Station [L] River Information System, FFWS Tone River Upstream [S] Tone River Levee Construction Project, Shakusui Management Office, MLIT 11 May 24 (Wed) Control Gate [F] Demonstration of Acoustic Doppler Current Kurihashi City, Saitama Pref. Meter 12 May 25 (Thu) Preparation of Training Report JICA Tokyo 13 May 26 (Fri) [P] Evaluation Conference JICA Tokyo 14 May 27 (Sat) [[Traveling]] From Tokyo to Manila － Source: JICA Expert Team

Table 2.1.32 Schedule and Program of the 2nd Counterpart Training in Japan No. Date (Week) Training Program Place 1 June 24 (Sun) [[Traveling]] From Manila to Tokyo － General Briefing and Orientation JICA Tokyo 2 June 25 (Mon) Follow-up for Attainment Targets Setting and Training Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Program [L] Modernization of Hydrological Services in Japan and Quality Management of Hydrological Foundation of River & Basin Observation Data Integrated Communications, 3 June 26 (Tue) [L] Radar Rain Gauges Development Japan [L] Monitoring River Information System [L/S] Data Center Services IIJ (Internet Initiative Japan) Data Center, Yokohama [L] Weather and Flood Forecast Services of JMA JMA (Japan Meteorological [S] Facility Tour on Forecasting Room of JMA, Agency) 4 June 27 (Wed) Meteorological Science Museum [L] Flood Forecast and Warning System of MLIT MLIT [L/S] Work/ Function/ Service of Water-Related Hokuriku Regional Dev. 5 June 28 (Thu) Disaster Forecast Center Bureau, MLIT [L/S] Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Rapid Toyama Office of River and 6 June 29 (Fri) Stream National Highway, MLIT 7 June 30 (Sat) Review and Preparation －

2-57 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

No. Date (Week) Training Program Place 8 July 1 (Sun) Holiday － [L/S] Landslide Disaster Warning and Evacuation Rokko Sabo Office, MLIT System 9 July 2 (Mon) [L] Flood Warning Information Notification System JICA Kansai for Small-scale River Basins [L/S] Flood Warning Information Notification System for Small-scale River Basins, Sumoto Public Works Office, 10 July 3 (Tue) Flood Measures Undertaken by Hyogo Hyogo Prefectural Govt. Prefectural Government Preparation of Training Report (1) JICA Tokyo 11 July 4 (Wed) [L/S] Water Level Gauges Dedicated to Monitoring Toriyama River, Kanagawa under the Flood Watch Status Prefecture Preparation of Training Report (2) JICA Tokyo 12 July 5 (Thu) Follow-up Discussion on Actions for Recommendations by the Mid-term Review Team JICA Tokyo Discussion on the OVIs of Project Purposes 13 July 6 (Fri) Evaluation Conference JICA Tokyo 14 July 7 (Sat) [[Traveling]] From Tokyo to Manila － Source: JICA Expert Team

The requirement for participants in the training was a staff who is engaged in PAGASA’s FFWS operation and is positively involved in the project activities as a PWG member. Besides, a staff who can contribute to the subsequent project activities and future operation of PAGASA’s FFWS is more suitable for the training. For this reason, considering the transfer plan in the near future and/or remaining years to retirement age, PAGASA finally selected five participants. Table 2.1.33 and Table 2.1.34 outline the participants of the respective trainings. Table 2.1.33 Participants for the 1st Counterpart Training in Japan Name Position Organization Job Descriptions Mr. Rex L. Weather Climate and Agromet Data Collection, check and analysis of Abdon, Jr. Specialist I Section/ Climate and Agromet meteorological data at PAGASA HQ Division, PAGASA Mr. Daniel L. Weather Dumagete Synoptic & Aeromet Meteorological monitoring, data management Caber Specialist I Station/ Visayas PRSD, PAGASA and flood forecasting and warning issuance at Visayas PRSD Mr. Ver Lancer Weather Dipolog Synoptic & Airport Meteorological monitoring, data management D. Galanida Specialist I Station / Mindanao PRSD, and flood forecasting and warning issuance at PAGASA Mindanao PRSD Mr. Raul R. Weather Tagum River Flood Forecasting Operation of FFWS at Tagum-Libuganon Montilla Observer I and Warning Center, PAGASA RFFWC Ms. Nivagine Weather Hydrometeorological Division Planning of FFWS for the nationwide major C. Nievares Specialist I PAGASA river basins and supporting of RFFWCs Note: Positions and organizations of the participants are as of the participation time. Source: JICA Expert Team

Table 2.1.34 Participants for the 2nd Counterpart Training in Japan Name Position Organization Job Descriptions Ms. Rosalie C. Weather Hydrometeorological Division, Planning of FFWS for the nationwide major Pagulayan Specialist II PAGASA river basins and supporting of RFFWCs Mr. Lorenzo T. Weather Agno River Flood Forecasting and Operation of FFWS at Agno RFFWC Diaz Specialist I Warning Center, PAGASA Mr. Victor B. Weather Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan River Operation of FFWS at Cagayan de Oro/ Flores, Jr. Specialist I Flood Forecasting and Warning Tagoloan RFFWC Center, PAGASA

2-58 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

Name Position Organization Job Descriptions Ms. Bema C. Weather Davao River Flood Forecasting Operation of FFWS at Davao RFFWC Tajones Specialist I and Warning Center, PAGASA Mr. Rommel P. Weather Pampanga River Flood Forecasting Operation of FFWS at Pampanga RFFWC Yutuc Observer III and Warning Center, PAGASA Note: Positions and organizations of the participants are as of the participation time. Source: JICA Expert Team

~~(5) Project Brief Note~~

For the purpose of introducing the outline of the Project to various parties concerned, the “Project Brief Note” was prepared in both English and Japanese. Although its composition basically follows the four items specified by JICA, the contents of the first version is different from the JICA specification as shown in Table 2.1.35 because it was prepared before project implementation.

Table 2.1.35 Composition of Project Brief Note First Version Second Version / Final Version (the JICA specification) 1. Project Background and Issues 1. Project Background and Issues 2. Approach to Solve the Issues 2. Approach to Solve the Issues 3. Method to Practice the Approach 3. Result of Practicing the Approach 4. Ingenuity in Implementing Project 4. Findings and Lessons from the Project Source: Prepared by the JICA Expert Team based on the specifications for Project Brief Note (JICA)

~~The images of the cover page of the final version are presented in Figure 2.1.18 below. Besides, the final version is presented in Attachment-4.~~

~~English Version Japanese Version Source: JICA Expert Team~~

~~Figure 2.1.18 Image of Cover Page of Project Brief Note~~

2-59 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning (6) Public Relations

In order to widely disseminate the project purpose, significance, activities, and outputs to the Philippines, the following public relations activities have been carried out in addition to the Project Brief Note described in Section (5).

~~1) Media Briefing~~

Media briefing was held three times during the project period. With the cooperation of PAGASA public relations department as well as JICA Philippines office, the project team comprising PAGASA personnel and JICA experts organized the media briefing and invited various media representatives including newspaper, TV broadcaster, internet media and so forth. The outline of the media briefings is summarized in Table 2.1.36.

Table 2.1.36 Outline of Media Briefings No. Date/Venue/Participant Subject/Contents 1 Date: December 12, 2016 1) Project Outline and Significance Venue: PAGASA HQ, Quezon 2) Implementation Structure City 3) Basic Policy for the Project Implementation 4) Project Activities for Each Output 5) Overall Schedule of the Project Implementation 2 Date: February 1, 2018 1) Key Information about the Project and Inputs Venue: Mallberry Suite Hotel, 2) Project Activities of PWG-A: FFWS for Flood Management Cagayan de Oro City 3) Project Activities of PWG-B: (1) Data Management 4) Project Activities of PWG-B: (2) Information & Communications 5) Project Activities of PWG-C: Hydrological Monitoring System 6) Progress of the Project Activities 3 Date: June 18, 2019 1) Accomplishments of the Project Venue: Sulo Riviera Hotel, 2) Lessons Learned Quezon City 3) Way Forward Activities of PAGASA Source: JICA Expert Team 2) Preparation of Poster and Brochure

The project poster and brochure were prepared in January 2017 for the purpose of public relations to the general public in Cagayan de Oro City and Tagoloan Municipality, which are part of the target area. Since these are intended for local residents, a lot of pictures and figures were used and the descriptions were translated into the local dialect (Visayan). Figure 2.1.19 presents the images of the poster and brochure.

~~Poster Brochure~~

~~Source: JICA Expert Team Figure 2.1.19 Images of the Project Poster and Brochure~~

2-60 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 The posters were displayed on the notice boards of concerned offices including Cagayan de Oro City and Tagoloan Municipality after 10 copies each in English and Visayan were made. The brochures were printed in Visayan and 50 copies were distributed to the Cagayan de Oro LGUs, Tagoloan LGUs, Mindanao PRSD and HMD.

~~2.1.3.7 Cross-sectoral Surveys and Products~~

~~(1) Baseline Survey and Capacity Assessment~~

~~1) Outline of Baseline Survey~~

The Baseline Survey was implemented over a one-month period from mid-July to mid- August 2016 in the three categories as shown in Table 2.1.37. The results were compiled in the “Baseline Survey Report, September 2016”.

Table 2.1.37 Outline of Baseline Survey No. Survey Outline Survey Procedure BL-1 Updating and supplemental collection of data and Additional and supplemental data collection information on history records, present situation of based on the list of data collection; the existing FFWS including data collected during otherwise, request for provision of data and the previous studies and surveys concerned. information by the Philippine side. BL-2 Overall capacity of PAGASA in terms of Targeting PAGASA HQ, HMD and the organization, staffing, budget, etc., operational existing five RFFWCs through interview or status of FFWSs, operational and management distribution/recovery of questionnaire. status of the existing RFFWCs, progress of the RFFWC project BL-3 Related matters to the capacity of the existing FFWS Targeting HMD and the existing 5 RFFWCs including FFW by HMD and RFFWC, the present through interview or field surveys by the situation, issues and required improvement measures JICA Expert Team. of the systems under operation. Source: JICA Expert Team 2) Survey Targets and Items

~~The survey was carried out targeting the following related organizations to FFWS, the existing FFWSs and RFFWCs:~~

a) Organization  PAGASA Headquarter: HMD, PRSD  Related government agencies, state-run companies (data and information collections only): DPWH, OCD, NIA, NPC and MMDA  DRRMC: Cagayan de Oro City DRRMC, Tagoloan Municipality DRRMC b) Existing FFWS, FFWSDO  Existing FFWS: under PAGASA (four FFWSs: Pampanga, Agno, Bicol, Cagayan), under MMDA (EFCOS (Pasig-Marikina River))  FFWSDO: under NIA (Pantabangan Dam, Magat Dam), under NPC (Binga-San Roque Dams, Angat Dam) c) RFFWCs and 13 river basins  RFFWC: Pampanga, Agno, Cagayan, Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan  13 major river basins (data collection only): Luzon (two basins: Abulog, Abra), Visayas (three basins: Panay, Jalaur, Ilog-Hilabangan), Mindanao (eight basins:

2-61 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning Agusan, Tagoloan, Cagayan de Oro, Agus-Lake Lanao, Tagum-Libuganon, Davao, Mindanao, Buayan-Malungon) 3) Information and Data Collected in the Baseline Survey

The data and information collected in the Baseline Survey are summarized hereinafter including the present situation regarding the organizations, FFWSs and river basins aforementioned, which were obtained through interview in the field survey as well as data collection. Analysis and evaluation on such data and information are made in Clause 2.1.3.3(1). The detailed results are compiled in “the Baseline Survey Report on Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning, Chapter 3, September 2016”.

a) Overall Status of PAGASA  Organization: Current organization structure of the whole PAGASA and HMD  Staff: Personnel distributions by age and sex and by science and technical function of 994 individuals both in the central office and in the field stations  Facility: Such as synoptic stations, radar stations, automatic weather stations (AWS), automatic rain gauge (ARG), etc.  Budget and Expenditure: Annual budget amount of PAGASA is PHP 1,131 mil. in 2015, of which 7% was HMD annual budget in 2015 (except Personnel Services)  Actual expenditure of HMD (5-year average) is approximately 73% of the annual amount in 2011.  Development & Improvement Plans/ Program and Policy by PAGASA including Republic Act No.10692 (“PAGASA Modernization Act of 2015”), the PAGASA Modernization Program, the PAGASA Strategic Planning Handbook, Staff Recruitment Plan, and Staff Development Plan  Current status of on-going projects/ programs through HMD’s Initiative: New projects/ programs commenced after 2013 including KOICA-3, DEWS-DOST, PAGASA-funded river basin project b) Data Management for FFWS in HMD and Other Divisions  Data Management: as stipulated in Operation Manual of Flood Forecasting and Warning System for River Basin (Document Ref. No. HMD_WI04) (OM-2012); such as Data Management Report and HMD Hydrological Database  Data management flow: as stipulated in OM-2012 and as implemented by HMD  Dam data collection: Collection, monitoring and notification of dam water level including dam data notification process - flood watch condition, dam data notification process - non-flood watch condition  PAGASA Unified Meteorological Information System (PUMIS): Current status of PUMIS and future trend c) Current Status of Monitoring Equipment/Devices/Facility for FFWS  Overall Status: Agno RFFWC, Pampanga RFFWC, Cagayan RFFWC, Cagayan De Oro RFFWC  Data Acquisition and Downtime Percentile: Agno RFFWC, Pampanga RFFWC, Cagayan RFFWC Cagayan De Oro RFFWC

2-62 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 d) River Centers  Status of Existing River Centers: Rainfall station, water level and discharge station, and weather station in major 18 rivers  Status of data management: Data management flow as implemented by Agno RFFWC, Pampanga RFFWC, Cagayan RFFWC and Cagayan de Oro RFFWC  Current dissemination network of flood information and warning: Common features in flood information dissemination; Issues on flood information dissemination e) Current Status of Target River Basins  Existing Hydrometeorological Monitoring: Existing monitoring stations in the target river basins and location map  Planned Hydrometeorological Monitoring: List of planned monitoring stations in the target river basins  Other Activities Currently Developed by Agency Concerned such as warning dissemination drill in coordination with LGUs f) Progress of River Center Project  Overall progress in 13 major river basins: Land availability, Center building construction, Staff deployment, Monitoring equipment, Telemetering system  Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins: Building construction under tender/contract process g) Current Status of the Other FFWSs  FFWSDO Managed by NIA and NPC: Rainfall stations and water level and discharge stations, Status of data management, Current dissemination network of flood information and warning  EFCOS Managed by MMDA: Rainfall and water level stations, Status of data management, Current dissemination network of flood information and warning. h) Research and Training for Capacity Building  Current research and training program for PAGASA staff (PAGASA own budget)  External training program by donors such as IFAS, etc. i) Other Technical Concerns and Documents  Record of flood bulletin  Flood operation manual  Currently applied flood warning criteria in the river basins equipped by FFWS j) ICT Network of PAGASA  ICT network of PAGASA  ICT infrastructure (all PAGASA): Connection between PAGASA WD and PRSD/RFFWC, Hydrological data transfer from PRSD to HMD, Hydrological data transfer to other system.

2-63 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning 4) Outline of Capacity Assessment (CA)

The capacity assessment concerning integrated data management for flood forecasting and warning as well as flood forecasting and warning services was carried out as a part of the Baseline Survey. Assessed results, which were referred to the finalization of the transfer of technology plan together with the other results obtained in the Baseline Survey, were put together in the “the Baseline Survey Report” and approved in the 2nd JCC meeting. The CA results were taken advantage of to formulate an institutional strengthening plan for RFFWC including staff deployment and strengthening, and to prepare the Roadmap.

~~The survey for CA was conducted in a manner as summarized in Table 2.1.38.~~

Table 2.1.38 Outline of Capacity Assessment No. Issues to be Assessed Target Procedure CA-1 Regarding individual personnel Targeting individual personnel of Distribution/recovery of concerning education HQ including HMD as well as questionnaire. Additional background, trainings, RFFWC questions and confirmations knowledge and understanding were made through emails on FFW services, etc. and/or telephone. CA-2 Regarding individual personnel Targeting individual personnel of Same as above concerning Knowledge and HQ including HMD as well as understandings on Manual RFFWC /Guideline, Experience and knowledge on FFWS operation/services CA-3 Regarding HMD and the Targeting the organizations: HMD Same as above /CA-4 existing RFFWC concerning and the existing RFFWCs. organizational reinforcement Respondents were intended to be and organizational re- responsible officials of each structuring, development status organization; however, insufficient of manual and guidelines response was obtained from HMD. Source: JICA Expert Team

~~5) Survey Item, Results and Assessment~~

Major survey items are shown hereunder as well as some of the survey results and assessment. All the survey items in the questionnaire and their results are detailed in Chapter 4 of the Baseline Survey Report as well as identified issues and assessment in Chapter 5.

~~a) Number of Questionnaire Distributed and Respondents~~

Table 2.1.39 Number of Questionnaire Distributed and Respondents Cagayan Cagayan de Pampanga Agno RFFWC Oro RFFWC HMD Total RFFWC RFFWC (North Luzon (Mindanao PRSD) PRSD) Total Nos. of Personnel (*1) 36 6 4 13 16 - Personnel related to RFFWC - 6 4 6(*2) 2(*3) - Questionnaire Distributed 7(*4) 6 4(*5) 6 7 30 Respondents 2 6 3 6 7 24 Notes: *1. Engineering/Technical staff only, excluding project management and administrative staff as well as Job Order level. *2. Cagayan RFFWC *3. Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC: All the personnel involved with RFFWC (two persons) in the Mindanao PRSD are respondents as well as some of the same PRSD personnel. *4. Two of nine are assumed not distributed because of retirement and long leave. *5. One out of four persons was excluded from the respondents since he will be retiring within a few months.

2-64 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 b) Age Distribution of RFFWC Staff

~~ISSUES i) Aging of senior personnel, particularly chief or OIC of each RFFWC (Pampanga, Agno, Cagayan) ii) Polarization of the senior and rather young generation personnel (Cagayan)~~

c) General Individual Matters of Staff  Work History  Education  Training(s) (for PAGASA Personnel)  Work Description  Knowledge/Understanding on FFWS Services: Awareness on issues to be solved and improved in present FFWS operation; Understanding/knowledge on the FFWS implementation process/procedure in PAGASA; Actual involvement in implementation of PAGASA-FFWS operation; Understanding/knowledge on merits and benefit due to FFWS implementation; Ability to train PAGASA colleague and stakeholders/ beneficiaries in implementing FFWS of PAGASA.

Inquiry, Response and Assessment On General Knowledge of  One respondent assesses himself that he is not fully Each Personnel on FFWS of knowledgeable of the equipment used in FFWS system in his PAGASA RFFWC.  His concern is “detecting and troubleshooting the defects of the equipment used in FFWS of Agno RFFWC. On Awareness on Issues to be Concerned personnel(respondents) have rather high awareness on Solved and Improved in issues to be solved and improved in present FFWS operation, such Present FFWS Operation as:  Issues concerning present FFWS’s are outdated situation, system upgrading, insufficient manpower, O&M reinforcement, etc.  Requirement of more training activities on FFWS equipment; Enhancement of technical skills and knowhow. However, specific issues encountered as well as idea for improvement measures were not suggested.

2-65 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning  Required Education and Training for FFWS Services of PAGASA Obtained from 21 respondents from RFFWCs and 2 respondents from HMD [III] Each Respondent for Own Skill-up Items 2, 3, 5, 6, 12 (wavy 40 [II] Each Respondent for Better Services underlined) means “high ranked [I] HMD and RFFWC Staffs for Better Services ones in every aspect shown 35 7 below: 30 7 7 6 9 i) For HMD and RFFWC staff 6 25 6 5 6 for Better Services 12 5 6 9 13 12 20 5 7 ii) For respondents themselves 10 8 11 8 4 4 6 8 3 6 for Better Services 15 6 5 6 iii) For respondents themselves 7 5 4 10 17 Nos. of Respondentsof Nos. 16 15 16 for Skill-up 13 14 14 13 3 14 13 11 12 9 5 7 8 8 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Subjects No. 1- Hydrology and Meteorology; 2- Flood Forecasting; 3- Management and operation training on facilities and warning equipment; 4- Information technology and telecommunications; 5- Basic FFWS; 6- Flood modeling with GIS; 7- Inflow-outflow forecasting for dam operation; 8- Actual experience; 9- Operation and maintenance of telemetry system; 10- Network supervisory system; 11- IP radio communication; 12- Rainfall forecasting; 13- Understanding and interpretation of flood bulletin; 14- SCADA Application; 15- Satellite image interpretation; 16- Training of stakeholders; 17- Remote sensing

d) PAGASA Personnel, Relevant Technology to FFWS  Manual/Guideline related to each Task(s)  Implementation Procedure of FFWS and its Dissemination  Self-development for Present Tasks  Technical work experiences including: Hydrological observation, Compilation and processing of the collected observation data, Discharge measurement, River survey, Hydrological statistics, Rainfall analysis and runoff analysis, Hydraulic analysis  Manuals and Guidelines

~~e) Institutional Strengthening for HMD~~

Organizational Reinforcement  Service Level (Capacity) of Division (Section)  Employment of New Staff for Development  Capacity Building and Human Resource Development  Training of ICT Engineer. Organizational Restructuring  Appraisal of Present Tasks and Sharing of Responsibilities for FFWS, HMDAS and HMTS  Re-organization and Interaction among Personnel  Organizational Issues on RFFWC. Manual/Guideline  Development and Improvement of Manuals and Guideline required for HMD Services  Availability and Practicality of the Existing Manual(s) and Guideline(s)  Improvement Plan of Manual(s) and Guideline(s).

2-66 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 Overall  Necessary Actions and Plans for Improvement of FFWS Services.

~~f) Institutional Strengthening for RFFWC~~

Organizational Reinforcement  Service Level (Capacity) of RFFWC  Employment of New Staff for Improvement of Services  Capacity Building and Human Resource Development to date and further Training for Improvement. Trainings and Activities Carried  Training on River Hydrographic Measurements (Pampanga) Out by Respective RFFWCs  Training on Hydrologic Aspects and Actual Measurement (Pampanga)  Hydrometeorology to Train Hydrologist (Cagayan)  Measurement of Sensor Elevation; Basic Maintenance Activity (Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan) Trainings and Activities Required  Electrical and Mechanical O&M Works (Agno) for Achievement of  Hydrometeorology for Hydrologist Training (Cagayan) Predetermined Level /to Attain Further Improvement  Technology Acquisition such as Basic Meteo-hydrology, Recording Techniques of Observed Data, Survey Technique for Installation of W.L. Gauge, Technology on Discharge Measurement (RFFWC)  Improvement of the Regional Services Level by RFFWC in terms of Flood Observation, Provision of Flood Information / Warning Dissemination. Manual/Guideline  Development and Improvement of Manuals and Guideline required for HMD Services  Availability and Practicality of the Existing Manual(s) and Guideline(s)  Improvement Plan of Manual(s) and Guideline(s)

~~(2) Local Subcontract Work~~

In order to acquire data necessary for preparation of H-Q curve and setting of FWWLs at the observation stations in the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins, the JICA Expert Team conducted two sub-contract works: 1) River Cross Section Survey; and 2) Discharge Measurement.

~~1) River Cross Section Survey~~

River Cross Section Survey was conducted with the aim of installing staff gauges and measuring the cross section shape of river channels at observation stations where FWWLs are set. Details of the sub-contract work are shown below.  Sub-contract Work Name: River Cross Section Survey  Contractor: Bacala Surveying Office  Contract Period: September 20, 2016 – November 7, 2016  Contract Amount: PHP 469,101.00 (tax included)  Selection Method: Cost quotation competition

2-67 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning Work items and specifications were confirmed with HMD and MPRSD as shown in Table 2.1.40.

Table 2.1.40 Work Items on River Cross Section Survey Work Item General Description (1) Benchmark Establish benchmarks that serve as reference points for river cross section survey. Installation Position and elevation are linked with NAMRIA benchmarks. The position is WGS 84 and the elevation is Mean Sea Level (MSL). (2) Leveling Establish piles at each end of the survey lines. Position and elevation are linked with the benchmark installed in (1). Set two survey lines at six target sites in total, at four sites (Pelaez Bridge, Cabula Bridge, Uguiaban Bridge, Liboran) in the Cagayan de Oro River basin, and two sites (Sta.Ana, Dalirig) in the Tagoloan River basin. (3) River Cross Conduct river cross section survey at the survey lines. Section Survey (4) Installation of Install staff gauges at the six sites above, considering installing on existing structures Staff Gauges such as bridge piers and setting up at a place higher than the past flood level so that there is no risk of loss. (5) Preparation of Prepare a final report including survery report and drawings. Work Outputs Source: JICA Expert Team The JICA Expert Team received the draft final report from the sub-contractor on December 9, 2016, the final report on February 6, 2017, and the sub-contract work was completed on February 15, 2017.

~~2) Discharge Measurement~~

Discharge Measurement was conducted with the aim of studying the relationship between river water level and discharge that are required for H-Q curves preparation and update at the target stations where FWWLs are set. Details of the sub-contract work are shown below.  Sub-contract Work Name: Discharge Measurement  Contractor: BRAVO 3 Surveying Services  Contract Period: [Original] September 20, 2016 – November 30, 2018 [Changed] September 20, 2016 – January 31, 2019  Contract Amount: [Original] PHP 2,441,600.00 (tax included) [Changed] PHP 2,776,480.00 (tax included)  Selection Method: Cost quotation competition Work items and specifications were confirmed with HMD and MPRSD. However, the contract was amended three times (1st: change of Dalirig station, 2nd: addition of river cross section survey, 3rd: extension of work period). The final version of work items is shown in Table 2.1.41.

Table 2.1.41 Work Items on Discharge Measurement Work Item General Description (1) Preparation of Prepare equipment (current meter, bridge crane, sounding reel, etc.) necessary for Necessary Equipment discharge measurement. (2) Discharge Conduct discharge measurement at six sites in total, at four sites in the Cagayan Measurement de Oro River basin (Pelaez Bridge, Cabula Bridge, Uguiaban Bridge, Liboran), and two sites in the Tagoloan River basin (Sta. Ana, Dalirig). A total of 60 times measurement at each site over three years (46 times in the rainy season and 14 times in the dry season). Float method during flood, and current meter method during low flow.

2-68 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

Work Item General Description (3) River Cross Section For the purpose of surveying the change in river cross section caused by the Survey tropical cyclone Vinta in December 2017, conduct river cross section survey at the six survey lines where discharge is measured. (4) Preparation of Work Prepare a final report including discharge measurement results. Outputs Source: JICA Expert Team Discharge measurement was carried out 360 times in total for the six stations by December 2018. The JICA Expert Team received the final report as well as all the data from the sub- contractor, and the sub-contract work was completed on January 31, 2019.

~~(3) Technical Cooperation Products~~

A list of the technical cooperation products that were prepared through the implementation of the Project is presented in Table 2.1.42. All these products were prepared through PWG activities jointly by the JICA Expert Team and CP. Some products were provisionally used as a draft during the project period and reviewed for finalization. The products are expected to be updated by PAGASA after the completion of the Project.

Table 2.1.42 List of Technical Cooperation Products Output Title of Technical Cooperation Product Approval Intended User Discussion 1. Roadmap for Enhancement of Flood Forecasting and with PAGASA, HMD Warning System Output 1 JICA 2. Medium-term Plans for Enhancement of Flood PAGASA HMD Forecasting and Warning System 3. Standard Hydrometeorological Data Exchange Format ― HMD, RFFWCs for Flood Forecasting and Warning System 4. Quality Management Standards for Hydrometeorological ― HMD, RFFWCs Data of Flood Forecasting and Warning System Output 2 5. Standard Procedure on Operation and Maintenance of ― HMD, RFFWCs Hydrometeorological Database 6. Rehabilitation Plans of Telemetry Equipment for Existing Pampanga / Agno / ― Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems Cagayan RFFWCs 7. Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination ― RFFWCs from River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center 8. Development Standards for Flood Forecasting and Output 3 PAGASA HMD, RFFWCs Warning System 9. Operational Guidelines on River Flood Forecasting and PAGASA HMD, RFFWCs Warning Center 10. Staffing and Facility Plans for Flood Forecasting and Cagayan de Oro / Warning System in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River PAGASA Tagoloan RFFWC Basins Output 4 11. H-Q Curves and Flood Warning Water Levels of Cagayan de Oro / ― Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins Tagoloan RFFWC 12. Quality Management Procedure for Hydrometeorological Cagayan de Oro / ― Data in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins Tagoloan RFFWC Discussion 13. Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination Cagayan de Oro / Output 5 with DPWH, in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins Tagoloan RFFWC LDRRMC, etc. Source: Contract and JICA Expert Team

2-69 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning 2.2 Achievements of the Project

~~2.2.1 Project Outputs and Indicators~~

Based on the final PDM, the achievement status of the project outputs as of June 2019 is summarized in Table 2.2.1 by objectively verifiable indicator (OVI). The details of OVI status are described below the table.

Table 2.2.1 Achievement Status of Project Output by OVI Output Objectively Verifiable Indicator (OVI) Means of Verification Status 1. Capacity on formulation of 1.1 Draft roadmap and draft medium-term 1-1 Project Report, Achieved FFWS development plan of plan for enhancement of FFWS are draft medium-term PAGASA HMD is enhanced. reviewed and finalized. plan, draft roadmap 2. Capacity of PAGASA and 2.1 A hydrometeorological database using 2-1 Interview with Achieved RFFWC on quality the standard data format is established and HMD management/ storage of the operated. hydrometeorological data is 2.2 Quality management standards are 2-2 Interview with Partially enhanced. complied at HMD in handling hydro- HMD, quality achieved meteorological data of Cagayan de Oro/ management standards Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. 3. Organization/staffing and 3.1 At least two RFFWCs are developed 3-1 Questionnaires to Achieved equipment/facility of according to the draft development HMD and each RFFWC are standardized standards for staffing and RFFWC according to the development equipment/facilities. levels of FFWS. 3.2 At least two RFFWCs comply with the 3-2 Questionnaires to Achieved guidelines for RFFWC operations HMD and each RFFWCs 3.3 Procedures of information transmission 3-3 Questionnaires to Achieved to LGUs and other concerned organizations HMD, minutes of are agreed/adopted by LGUs (Cagayan de meeting Oro City and Tagoloan Municipality). 4. Capacity of PAGASA 4.1 Flood warning water levels at 4-1 Interview with Achieved HMD on FFWS of Cagayan observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and HMD, warning water de Oro and Tagoloan River Tagoloan rivers are established by HMD. level report basins is enhanced. 4.2 Trainings on issuing flood warning are 4-2 Interview with Partially conducted for at least 2 number of HMD, activity report achieved RFFWCs. 5. Capacity of Cagayan de 5.1 Hydrometeorological data of Cagayan 5-1 Interview with Achieved Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC on de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC are transmitted Cagayan de Oro/ data management for flood to HMD periodically according to the Tagoloan RFFWC, forecasting and warning is guidelines. database of HMD developed. 5.2 Flood warning is issued according to 5-2 Interview with Achieved the rules whenever water level of Cagayan Cagayan de Oro/ de Oro and Tagoloan rivers reaches to the Tagoloan RFFWC, warning level. flood bulletins Source: JICA Expert Team

According to the evaluation of the achievement status of the respective OVIs, the achievement status of the project outputs could be evaluated as follows:  Project Output 1: Achieved  Project Output 2: Generally achieved  Project Output 3: Achieved  Project Output 4: Generally achieved  Project Output 5: Achieved

2-70 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 (1) Project Output OVI-1.1: Draft Roadmap and Draft Medium-term Plan

The Roadmap and the Medium-term Plans have been finalized in March 2019 through updating based on the latest development activities and related projects of FFWS in the target 18 river basins by HMD and PRSD and final review of the recommendations of the PMP for the staffing and human resources development plans.

~~(2) Project Output OVI-2.1: Hydrometeorological Database~~

As mentioned in the above Clause 2.1.3.2(6), through Activity 2-6 in the project, the commercially available database software AQUARIUS was to be used as the integrated hydrometeorological database for the flood forecasting and warning system in PAGASA. The software had been possessed by HMD long before the project started in 2016, but not fully utilized.

Considering that one of reasons for the underutilization is the necessity of periodical batch-basis manual uploading of observed data into the database, different modes of real-time automatic data appended into AQUARIUS were examined and implemented on trial basis.

The integrated database is being operated using the standard data format described in the Technical Cooperation Product No.3 “Standard Hydro-meteorological Data Exchange Format for Flood Forecasting and Warning System”.

~~(3) Project Output OVI-2.2: Quality Management Standards~~

As mentioned in the above Clause 2.1.3.2(5), through Activity 2-5 in the project, three standards were established. i.e.: first (QMS-1) for observation, second (QMS-2) for real-time data, and third (QMS-3) for archive data. QMS-1 is being complied by RFFWCs, and QMS-3 is being complied by HMD as mentioned in the above Clause 2.1.3.2(7), through Activity 2-7 in the project. While QMS-2 is supposed to be complied by RFFWCs, it has not been achieved as real- time data quality management requires AQUARIUS, which has not been introduced locally yet.

~~(4) Project Output OVI-3.1: Development Standards for Staffing and Facilities~~

Through discussions and questionnaires raised from the working group members of HMD and RFFWCs in Activity 3-1, the issues arising from the existing telemetry systems were reviewed and the requirements of future telemetry systems were clarified and included in making Product No.8 “Development Standards for Flood Forecasting and Warning System”. In the course of drafting the Development Standards in Activity 3-3, Tagoloan, Davao and Buayan-Malungon River basins came up as candidate sites for applying the Development Standards. The components of telemetry systems were partly provided through non-project type grant-aid by Japan International Cooperation System (JICS) and some other components were procured locally in the Philippines. In such case, the Development Standards could help effectively to integrate and harmonize different sources of materials. The project started tendering in 2016 for prospective local contractor. PAGASA has been consuming time to realize actual implementation due to technical and procedural issues. Assisting them in solving the issues, the

2-71 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning Development Standards have been contributing to the successful completion of installation works in November 2018. The actual operation will be starting in 2019.

Besides, hydrologists dedicated to the FFW operations of RFFWC have been deployed at the Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and Davao RFFWCs. The status of staffing in these two RFFWCs could be considered as the development stage 1 defined in the Roadmap. Accordingly, two RFFWCs were developed according to the Standards.

~~(5) Project Output OVI-3.2: Guidelines for RFFWC Operations~~

The Guidelines was compiled as the second draft in February 2018 and started trial application at the existing 11 RFFWCs. After a half year trial application, monitoring was conducted for the purpose of measuring compliance in the form of check list.

The evaluation of the Guidelines compliance was made using five grades, namely: excellent, good, fair, poor, and not applicable, depending on the actual performance of RFFWC. After the 5-grade evaluation, specific comment to explain the reason was added as needed.

~~The monitoring items were provided with respect to each section/sub-section of the Guidelines. The total number of items is 48 as shown in Table 2.2.2.~~

Table 2.2.2 Number of Monitoring Items by Chapter Chapter of the Guidelines Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Total Nos. of Monitoring Items 7 10 17 2 7 5 48 Note: Since Chapter 1 is an introduction part, monitoring items are not provided. Source: JICA Expert Team

Answers were collected from seven RFFWCs, namely: Abra, Cagayan (two different answers), Tagum-Libuganon, Davao, Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan, Pampanga, and Bicol. The results of the answers are summarized in Figure 2.2.1.

Chapter 2 5 19 13 11 7 Excellent Chapter 3 1 18 26 11 23 Good Chapter 4 22 40 17 15 40 Fair Chapter 5 2 5 5 2 2 Poor Not Applicable Chapter 6 13 23 4 16 Chapter 7 10 11 6 11 Nos. of corresponding 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% check items Source: JICA Expert Team

~~Figure 2.2.1 Results of Check List on the Guidelines Compliance~~

In terms of the total number of monitoring items, 26% of the items were not applicable because the respondents included some newly-developed RFFWCs. Except the answer of not applicable, 84% of the monitoring items corresponded to either one of excellent, good or fair. In particular, nearly all the answers from Pampanga and Cagayan RFFWCs were excellent to fair.

~~Although the above results are based on self-evaluation, it would be fair to say that at least two RFFWCs comply with the guidelines for RFFWC operations.~~

2-72 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 (6) Project Output OVI-3.3: Procedures of Information Transmission to LGUs

The Procedures drafted in Activities 3-2 and 3-5 were verified through the flood drills conducted in Activity 4-4 at the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins to substantiate the effectiveness and efficiency in the actual scenario of flood warning dissemination. The Procedures was reviewed and corrected considering the discussions, suggestions and questions raised from the RFFWC and the local government agencies. The Procedures was then finalized as Products No.7 and No.13 and shared with HMD and RFFWCs to be used for flood warning dissemination.

~~(7) Project Output OVI-4.1: Flood Warning Water Levels~~

As mentioned in the above Clause 2.1.3.4(2)3), through Activities 4-2 and 5-1 in the project, flood warning water levels (FWWLs) at the observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers were established. The results of FWWL is shown in Table 2.1.25 in the same clause. Besides, details are compiled into Technical Cooperation Product No.11 “H-Q Curves and Flood Warning Water Levels of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins”.

After completion of the project, the Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC is expected to be responsible for examining the update of FWWL when it is judged that there are significant changes in river cross section profile due to flood events, among others.

~~(8) Project Output OVI-4.2: Trainings on Issuing Flood Warning~~

As mentioned in the above Clause 2.1.3.4(4), through Activities 4-4 and 5-4 in the project, trainings on issuing flood warning were conducted twice at Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC. Since the target river basin initially defined in the PDM is limited to the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins, the number of RFFWC that conducted the training as part of the project activities is only one.

With regard to the existing RFFWCs, although educational campaigns for the public are proactively conducted as part of information, education and communication (IEC) campaigns, trainings on issuing flood warning have not been conducted except for those done by projects supported by other development partners.

~~(9) Project Output OVI-5.1: Transmission of Hydrometeorological Data to HMD~~

As mentioned in the above Clause 2.1.3.5(2), through Activity 5-2 in the project, hydrometeorological data of the Twin Phoenix system is transmitted from Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC to HMD in real time. However, the format being used is the one of PUMIS, and requires conversion before uploading into AQUARIUS, the integrated database of HMD. Automatic appending using AQUARIUS Acquisition API is being tested by the vendor of Twin Phoenix Project.

~~(10) Project Output OVI-5.2: Issuance of Flood Warning~~

~~During the project implementation period, Typhoon Vinta hit the Cagayan de Oro River basin in December 2017. At the time, the water levels of the Cagayan de Oro River at three gauging~~

2-73 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning stations reached to the warning levels, and therefore, the Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC issued flood warnings. As shown in Figure 2.2.2, the RFFWC issued Flood Advisory (FA) once as well as Flood Bulletins (FBs) six times. Communication records indicate that the FA and FBs were sent to the organizations concerned by email and fax.

~~Dec1 21 Dec 2225 Dec 23 60 0 49 m Cabula Bridge 48 m 50 5 10 40 Basin Average Rainfall Critical Level 20.09 m 15 30 Alarm Level 17.55 m Alert Level 20 Pelaez Bridge 14.9 m~~

~~20 Rainfall(mm) 25 10 Carmen-CDO 5 m 30~~

~~Water Level (meters above MSL) above (meters LevelWater 0 4 m 35~~

01:00 02:00 03:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 FA Time (hours) FB1 FB6 Source: Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC

~~Figure 2.2.2 Issuance of Flood Warnings Associated with Water Level Rising in Typhoon Vinta~~

According to interviews with the concerned parties after the typhoon event, the Cagayan de Oro CDRRMC requested earlier issuance of warning. However, given the basin characteristics that the catchment area is relatively small and thus time to know the flood is short as well as the existing basin monitoring facilities and manpower of the RFFWC at that time, it is safe to say that flood warnings were issued appropriately.

At the time of the above response, the technical cooperation products of the project were still being prepared, and therefore some rules have not been finalized. In the future, the RFFWC is supposed to comply with the rules and documentary forms defined in the respective products.

In addition, after the completion of the project, the RFFWC is expected to recognize flood occurrence earlier and to provide a longer lead time by utilizing monitoring facilities to be additionally installed by the JICA grant aid project.

~~2.2.2 Project Purpose and Indicators~~

Based on the final PDM, the achievement status of the project purpose as of June 2019 is summarized in Table 2.2.3 by objectively verifiable indicator (OVI). The details of OVI status are described below the table.

~~According to the evaluation of the achievement status of the respective OVIs, the achievement status of the project purpose could be evaluated as “Achieved”.~~

2-74 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

Table 2.2.3 Achievement Status of Project Purpose by OVI Project Purpose Objectively Verifiable Indicator (OVI) Means of Verification Status Capacity of PAGASA HMD 1. The average number of days required for 1. Record of Achieved and target RFFWC on restoring a trouble of a flood forecasting Hydrometeorological integral data management/ system shows a declining trend in the five Data Monitoring utilization for FFWS is river basins, namely: Cagayan de Oro, enhanced. Pampanga, Agno, Cagayan and Pasig-Laguna de Bay River basins. 2. At least 80% of hydrometeorological data 2. Integrated Database Achieved of the five river basins are stored in the integrated database by applying a standard data format and quality management standards. 3. Flood forecasting and warning is 3. Technical Reports Achieved operational (issuance of flood bulletins) at before the Project Cagayan de Oro River basin. termination Source: JICA Expert Team

~~(1) Project Purpose OVI-1: Restoration of Flood Forecasting System Troubles~~

~~1) Evaluation for This Period (Jan-Mar 2019)~~

The evaluation period this time is three months from January to February 2019, not six months like the past evaluations because of the completion of the Project in June 2019. The computation for the period Jan-Mar 2019 is given in the table below. Unfortunately, there is no data available for Cagayan because of the reason explained below. In the meantime, Cagayan de Oro suggests a declining trend through the efforts of local maintenance people, but the water level gauging stations still have some problems. Pampanga indicates the same trend of five days as compared to the average of previous periods because equipment problem at San Rafael repeater site still persists. HMTS is waiting for the needed spare. Agno shows a bit of increasing trend. The value of 17 days was caused by removal of sensor on January 21, 2019 at Binalonan due to DPWH bridge rehab although Agno telemetry system generally has been working in good condition. The conditions of Pasig-Laguna de Bay have improved much. Still, it is suggested to keep monitoring the system further.

Table 2.2.4 Evaluation for Jan-Mar 2019 as Compared to the Average Past Two Months Past Two Periods This Period River Basin Trend Jan-Jun 2018 Jul-Dec 2018 Average Jan-Mar 2019 Cagayan de Oro 25 days 18 days 21.5 days 9 days Declining Pampanga 8 days 2 days 5.0 days 5 days No change Agno 16 days 12 days 14.0 days 17 days*1 Increasing Cagayan 31 days 164 days 97.5 days --*2 (not available) Pasig-Laguna de Bay 42 days 68 days 55.0 days 24 days Declining Notes: *1. The value for Jan-Mar 2019 cannot be directly calculated because the number of recoveries is zero (it is impossible to divide by denominator of zero). The above value of 17 days is exceptionally estimated as a value for nine months from Jul 2018 to Mar 2019. *2. The telemetry system was out of service due to aging of the equipment after more than 30 years operation and repair is not possible. As such is the case, it is not possible to evaluate the effect of the project with this OVI. Source: JICA Expert Team

~~Cagayan River Basin:~~

~~The telemetry system shut down after more than 30 years of operation. Repair activity was not effective because there is no replacement of the parts. So, the indicator cannot be~~

2-75 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning validated for this period. In place of the old system, HMTS started installation of new telemetry system brought from Adcon Germany and it will be operational in 2019.

~~2) Overall Evaluation for the Entire Project Period~~

~~a) Evaluation for the OVI-1 Project Purpose~~

The OVI-1 is an indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of the Project Purpose that is defined as “average days required for restoring troubles show a declining trend in the five river basins” in Section 2.3(4). This indicator is a comprehensive value of average days required for restoration computed from the total number of days of downtime of all gauging stations divided by the number of incidences of restoration in five river basins as formulated below.

~~Total Number of Days of Downtime of All Gauging Statons in 5 River Basins OVI-1(days) = Total Number of Restoration Incidence in 5 River Basins~~

~~As given in Table 2.2.5, the average days required for recovery indicate a gradual declining trend starting from Jul-Dec 2018 suggesting that the Project Purpose has been attained in terms of OVI-1.~~

Table 2.2.5 OVI-1 for the Entire Project Period 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 River Basin Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Mar Average Days of Restoration 8 days 12 days 14 days 30 days 13 days 11 days Trend - - Increasing Increasing Declining Declining Source: JICA Expert Team b) Evaluation for Individual River Basin

Pampanga indicates a constantly decreasing trend throughout the entire period. The other river basins show sometimes increasing trends. Some observations are given below on why the evaluation suggests such increasing trends.

Table 2.2.6 Average Days Required for Restoration in Individual River Basin 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 River Basin Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Mar Cagayan de Oro --*1 3 days 4 days 25 days 18 days 9 days Pampanga 12 days 12 days 8 days 8 days 2 days 5 days Agno 2 days 11 days 3 days 16 days 12 days 17 days Cagayan --*1 9 days 63 days 31 days 164 days --*1 Pasig-Laguna de Bay --*1 37 days 42 days 42 days 68 days 24 days Notes: *1. Data not available Source: JICA Expert Team

Table 2.2.7 Trend of Days Required for Restoring Troubles 2017 2018 2018 2019 River Basin Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Mar Cagayan de Oro N/A*1 Increasing Increasing Declining Pampanga Declining Declining Declining No change Agno Declining Increasing Increasing Increasing Cagayan N/A*1 Declining Increasing N/A*1 Pasig-Laguna de Bay N/A*1 Increasing Increasing Declining Notes: *1. Not applicable because of data not available Source: JICA Expert Team

2-76 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2 c) Observations Affecting Increasing Trend

◆ Lack of Spare Parts and Spare Parts Procurement The spare parts are not available in time for troubleshooting. They must be obtained through internal procurement processing. Usually, it takes more than a month and if the product comes from overseas, it may need more than three months. Troubleshooting will be idle for such a long time.

◆ Outdated Telemetry Systems Some telemetry systems have already passed operational life. It is very difficult to maintain these systems because spare parts are not available in the market. Once the system fails, field technicians cannot recover the system.

◆ Limited Number of Personnel Currently, troubleshooting is the responsibility of HMTS. Meanwhile, the number of telemetry systems is increasing in new river basins. Frankly, it is very difficult to manage all the troubleshooting over the whole Philippines only by the limited staff members of HMTS. Therefore, urgent actions will be needed to build up human capacity for equipment maintenance. In the meantime, technicians must be familiar not only on the skills of repairing of conventional telemetry equipment but also on new technologies such as computer network, remote sensing, Internet-of-Things, and cloud computing system. In this case, engineers/technicians who know about such technologies must be hired in line with the PAGASA Modernization Program.

◆ Delayed Response from Equipment Vendor The vendor responds very slowly in troubleshooting in spite of repeated claims about equipment failures from HMTS. This was often the case with new upcoming telemetry systems. It is very important to check if the contractual documents has clearly set forth the contractor’s scope of delivery.

◆ Unmanageable Elements Natural disasters sometimes wreak havoc on the telemetry equipment posted in the field. Heavy rain from typhoon washed away sensors installed in the river. Gusty wind disorients the microwave dish antenna and disrupts all communications. Lightning hits the facilities causing serious damage to the equipment. The recovery from these mishaps had been longer than expected even though recovery was expedited through the efforts of maintenance people.

~~(2) Project Purpose OVI-2: Storage of Hydrometeorological Data~~

The following 99 stations of the five river basins for the period starting January 2017 until December 2018 were evaluated. The data were uploaded, either manually or automatically, into the integrated database (AQUARIUS HIS) of HMD. The data were verified using the functions of AQUARIUS in light of the quality management standard (QMS-3).

2-77 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Table 2.2.8 Target Stations for OVI-2 Evaluation Pampanga Agno Rainfall Water Level Rainfall Water Level 1. Muñoz 11. Arayat 1. Sapang Buho 1. Mt. Ampucao 1. Binalonan 2. Sapang Buho 12. Candaba 2. Mayapyap 2. Binalonan 2. Sta. Maria 3. Calaanan 13. Porac 3. Zaragoza 3. Sta. Maria 3. Carmen 4. Mayapyap 14. Mexico 4. Peñaranda 4. Carmen 4. Tibag 5. Gabaldon 15. San Rafael 5. San Isidro 5. Tibag 5. San Vicente 6. Palali 16. Sasmuan 6. Arayat 6. Camp O'donnell 6. Mapandan 7. Zaragoza 17. Sulipan 7. Candaba 7. San Vicente 7. Sta. Barbara 8. Peñaranda 8. Mexico 8. Maasin 8. Bugallon 9. San Isidro 9. Sasmuan 9. Mapandan 10. Sibul Spring 10. Sulipan 10. Sta. Barbara 11. Bugallon

Cagayan Cagayan de Oro Rainfall Water Level Rainfall Water Level 1. Gamu 1. Gamu 1. Cosina 1. Basak 2. Maris Dam 2. Maris Dam 2. Dagumbaan 2. Mambuaya 3. Pangal 3. Pangal 3. Imbatug 3. Taguanao 4. Tuguegarao 4. Tuguegarao 4. Kalilangan 4. Tumalaong 5. Tunauini 5. Tunauini 5. Tikalaan

~~6. Mambuaya~~

Pasig-Laguna de Bay Rainfall Water Level 1. Airport (PAGASA) 10. Mt. Aries 1. Burgos 10. Rosario LS 2. Antipolo (AWS) 11. Nangka 2. Fort Santiago 11. San Juan School 3. Antipolo (RR) 12. Napindan-2 3. Marcos Highway 12. San Mateo-1 4. Boso-Boso 13. Pasig City Hall (AWS) 4. Mindanao 13. Sto Nino 5. Cainta 14. Pasig City Hall (RG) 5. Montalban 14. Tumana Bridge 6. Guadanville 15. Port Area Synop (AWS) 6. Napindan-1 15. Nangka 7. La Mesa Dam (AWS) 16. Port Area Synop (RR) 7. Napindan-2 8. La Mesa Dam (RR) 17. San Mateo-2 8. Pandacan 9. Marikina Youth Camp 18. Mt. Oro 9. Rosario JS Source: PAGASA HMD

~~The archival percentage was calculated using the following equation:~~

~~Σ (No. of months archived at station i) x 100 (%) (No. of stations) * (Total no. of evaluation months)~~

As of end May 2019, data storage is 92.89% for the entire period from January 2017 to December 2018 (24 months). After the nomenclature for time series database has been properly established in late July 2018, the percentage has increased steadily. It should be noted that, if data is not obtained due to whatever reasons, including telemeter malfunction and sensor not making measurement, and if the final decision is that data will not be filled with a proper value, the data is to be archived as “missing”. Even if such “missing” data is included in the monthly data, properly evaluated month should be added to the numerator of the equation above.

2-78 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

~~Table 2.2.9 Data Storage in the Integrated Database~~

Nos. of Target Data Storage: Jan 2017 – Dec 2018 River Basin Gauging Nos. of Month Nos. of Month Percent in Each Share in 5 River Stations to be Evaluated Archived River Basin Basins Cagayan de Oro 10 240 210 87.50% 8.84% Pampanga 27 648 594 91.67% 25.00% Agno 19 456 437 95.83% 18.39% Cagayan 10 240 240 100.00% 10.10% Pasig-Laguna de Bay 33 792 726 91.67% 30.56% Total 99 2,376 2,207 --- 92.89% Note: As of end-May 2019 Source: Estimated by PAGASA HMD and JICA Expert Team.

~~(3) Project Purpose OVI-3: Operation of Flood Forecasting and Warning~~

As mentioned in the following Section 2.3, “operational status” of the OVI was defined by adding the phrase “issuance of flood bulletins”. As already discussed in the project output OVI- 5.2 of Clause 2.2.1(10), judging from the case of Typhoon Vinta, flood warnings for the Cagayan de Oro River basin are properly issued.

However, the issuance itself is a minimum requirement for evaluating the operational status, and it is not necessarily appropriate to say that flood forecasting and warning is operational based only on the issuance. Here, the operational status is evaluated from the seven components comprising FFWS, which were elaborated in formulating the Roadmap.

The seven components and their status as of June 2019 in the Cagayan de Oro River basin are outlined in Table 2.2.10. The column of stage in the table indicates the stage corresponding to the present status among three stages (refer to Figure 2.1.3 in Clause 2.1.3.1(2)).

Table 2.2.10 FFWS Status in Cagayan de Oro River Basin No. Component of FFWS Present Status in Cagayan de Oro River Basin Stage 1 Monitoring network Monitoring network in the basin has been telemetered through Stage 2 two projects, namely, Twin Phoenix and NDMI. 2 Data management system Although some gauging stations have problems in monitoring, Stage 1 partial data is automatically stored in the RFFWC. Quality check to at the RFFWC will be started in the near future as soon as the Stage 2 database software is available. 3 Data transfer system Automatic data transfer is made through telemetry system from Stage 1 gauging stations to the RFFWC. However, data transfer to HMD to has not been automated. Stage 2 4 Flood forecasting method Flood is forecasted by spot data of each gauging station. Stage 1 5 Issuance of flood warning Flood warning water levels for judging warning issuance had Stage 1 information been set for the eight gauging stations when the project started. Additional setting was made for the four gauging stations through the project activities. 6 Flood warning dissemination Flood information and warning are disseminated from the Stage 1 system RFFWC to the organizations concerned in the basin through email, fax, SMS, etc. In this project, the procedure of flood information dissemination was compiled into a document based on the discussion with the organizations concerned. 7 Staffing and human resources Two hydrologists dedicated to the FFWS operation of Cagayan Stage 1 development de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC are deployed. Source: JICA Expert Team

2-79 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning As presented in the above table, some troubles in the Twin Phoenix and NDMI systems established for the Cagayan de Oro River basin have not been solved. However, the RFFWC staff have made every effort to issue a flood warning by trying all possible alternative means, such as browsing and utilizing data of the rainfall and water level gauging stations owned by ASTI5 at the time of Typhoon Vinta.

Although some components are still at Stage 1 and there is much room for improvement toward sophistication in the future, based on the above status, the respective component meets the minimum requirement level and therefore, the basin is in a situation where the flood forecasting and warning is operational as a whole.

~~2.3 History of PDM Modification~~

Among the components comprising PDM, those that were modified in accordance with the progress of the project are mainly objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) of the project purpose as well as the overall goal OVIs in association with the changes in the project purpose OVIs. The other modifications are limited to clarification of terms and document names or changes in input, and they can be confirmed in Attachment-2. Therefore, this section describes the history of the project purpose OVIs.

The project purpose OVIs have been modified broadly three times. The details of the respective modifications are described in the following Clauses (1) to (3). And the final version is presented in Clause (4). Besides, the initial OVIs of the project purpose that had been defined in the PDM Ver.0 are listed below.

 Indicator 1: Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing five RFFWCs are received at HMD.  Indicator 2: Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing five RFFWCs are stored in the integrated database.  Indicator 3: Flood forecasting and warning is started at Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC.

~~(1) Modification in the 3rd JCC~~

The modification of OVIs and the setting of target values were proposed in the 3rd JCC and were agreed on the condition that examination and discussion were to be continued. The OVIs and target values discussed in the JCC are presented in Table 2.3.1

Table 2.3.1 Modification History of Project Purpose OVIs (at 3rd JCC) Proposed Ideas for OVIs Key Points and Reasons of Modification OVI-1: ➢ Newly proposed instead of the original OVI-1. Not less than 30% of MTTR (Mean Time to Recover)*1 Since the Project does not include any renewal is reduced among Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the and/or repair of monitoring devices, it will be existing five RFFWCs. difficult to directly contribute to improvement of data acquisition rate. It is recommended to focus more on eliminating the causes of malfunction. ➢ RFFWC’s efforts will become quantitatively assessable.

~~5 After that, the gauging stations of ASTI were transferred to PAGASA.~~

2-80 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 2

Proposed Ideas for OVIs Key Points and Reasons of Modification OVI-2: ➢ Determined the target value. Not less than 80%*2 of hydrometeorological data of ➢ Added description of a standard data format and Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing five quality management standards. RFFWCs are stored in the integrated database by applying a standard data format and quality management standards. OVI-3: ➢ Newly proposed as OVI-3. The original OVI-3 was Flood warning water levels of Cagayan de Oro and moved to OVI-4. Tagoloan River basins are established considering flood damage risk. OVI-4: ➢ Unchanged from the original OVI-3. Flood forecasting and warning is started at Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC. Notes: *1. The “MTTR” is defined as a value obtained from total number of days when a system is down divided by the number of recoveries. Total Number of Data stored in the Database *2. Percentage (%) = x 100 Total Number of Stations x Days after 2017/01/01 x Observations per day Source: JICA Expert Team

~~(2) Modification in the 4th JCC~~

Based on the consent made in the 3rd JCC, further examination was made. As a result, it was proposed that OVI-1 is improved and the new OVI-3 added in the 3rd JCC is cancelled as summarized in Table 2.3.2. These proposals were agreed in the 4th JCC meeting.

Table 2.3.2 Modification Result of Project Purpose OVIs (at 4th JCC) OVIs Proposed in the 4th JCC Reason of Modification in the 4th JCC Revised OVI-1: ➢ Introduce the concept of “MTTR”, but change terms The average number of days required for restoring a for clear definition and understanding. trouble of a flood forecasting system shows a declining ➢ No technical grounds on explaining “30%”. Forget trend in the Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing quantitative assessment now. five RFFWCs. ➢ Hence, modified OVI-1 as shown in the left column is mutually agreed finally. OVI-2 Unchanged OVI-3: To be excluded from OVIs because it is regarded rather Flood warning water levels of Cagayan de Oro and as one of activities than as project purpose. Tagoloan River basins are established considering flood damage risk. OVI-4 Unchanged but return to OVI-3 Notes: 1. Calculation method of “days (instead of MTTR)” is unchanged from 3rd JCC. 2. Assessment method of OVI-1 was changed as follows: 1) Assessment is made for the respective RFFWCs every six months. 2) “A declining trend” = lower than the mean value of the last two periods shown as “Example-1 and Example-3” in Figure 2.3.1. Source: JICA Expert Team

2-81 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 2 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Example-1 Example-2 Example-3 Example-4 Legend 140 127 Average number of 120 days required for 100 restoring a trouble 80 80 Mean value of the 104 68 68 80 Last 2 Periods 60 45 45 45 45 41 63 32 40 50 32 Ave. Nos. of Days of Nos.Ave. Assessment Result 20 39 to be assessed Achieved 0 Unachieved 0 6 12 6 12 18 18 24 30 24 30 36 Assessment Period (month) Source: JICA Expert Team Figure 2.3.1 Image of A Declining Trend in OVI-1

~~(3) Modification in the 6th JCC~~

In response to the recommendations made by the Mid-term Review Team in the 5th JCC held in January 2018, the modification of OVIs was further examined. The ideas were proposed and agreed in the 6th JCC as presented in Table 2.3.3.

Table 2.3.3 Modification Result of Project Purpose OVIs (at 6th JCC) OVIs Proposed in the 6th JCC Reason of Modification in the 6th JCC OVI-1: ➢ It was decided not to evaluate by RFFWC but by The average number of days required for restoring a river basin. trouble of a flood forecasting system shows a declining ➢ The target area was limited to the realizable range. trend in the five river basins, namely: Cagayan de Oro, The completion of the rehabilitation project in the Pampanga, Agno, Cagayan, and Pasig-Laguna de Bay Bicol River basin and the installation of JICS River basins. equipment in the Tagoloan River basin were both OVI-2: delayed. Thus, these two river basins were excluded At least 80% of the hydrometeorological data of the five because project effect is not expected by the end of river basins are stored in the integrated database by the project. applying a standard data format and quality management standards. OVI-3: Flood forecasting and warning is operational (issuance of flood bulletins) at Cagayan de Oro River basin. Note: Underlined parts indicate the modifications. Source: JICA Expert Team

~~(4) Final Version of the Project Purpose OVIs~~

~~The OVIs of the project purpose that were finalized in PDM Ver.5 are listed below.~~

 Indicator 1: The average number of days required for restoring a trouble of a flood forecasting system shows a declining trend in the five river basins, namely: Cagayan de Oro, Pampanga, Agno, Cagayan, and Pasig-Laguna de Bay River basins.  Indicator 2: At least 80% of the hydrometeorological data of the five river basins are stored in the integrated database by applying a standard data format and quality management standards.  Indicator 3: Flood forecasting and warning is operational (issuance of flood bulletins) at Cagayan de Oro River basin.

2-82 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 3

~~CHAPTER 3 RESULTS OF JOINT REVIEW~~

~~3.1 Results of Review Based on DAC Evaluation Criteria~~

At the end of the Project, the Joint Review was conducted in accordance with the “JICA Guideline for Project Evaluation, Ver.2 (2014)” and the “JICA Handbook for Project Evaluation, Ver.1.1 (2016)”, which mainly follow the “Principles for Evaluation of Development Assistance” issued by OECD/DAC. The evaluation is guided by the five criteria adopted by OECD/DAC, namely: a) Relevance, b) Effectiveness, c) Efficiency, d) Impact, and e) Sustainability.

~~As a result, the Project status was evaluated in terms of the five criteria as follows:~~

~~(1) Relevance~~

~~The relevance remains high due to the following reasons:~~

The framework of the Project coincides with the Country Assistance Policy for the Philippines of Japan (April 2012). Further, the output envisaged by the Project is appropriate in light of the PAGASA Modernization Program (2017-2019). The Project activities aim to strengthen FFW services in the 18 major river basins, which is one of the major targets of the Project and is the main aim of the PAGASA Modernization Program as well.

In addition, due to the recent series of typhoon that hit the Cagayan de Oro River basin, the development of flood risk management plan became an urgent issue. Under this circumstance, the Project is very relevant and timely.

The Project is expected to have synergy effects with other JICA projects in Cagayan de Oro listed below. JICA is conducting a relevant project in Cagayan de Oro River basin such as the yen loan project entitled “Flood Risk Management Project for Cagayan de Oro River”. As requested by the Government of the Philippines, the Government of Japan assisted the development of a masterplan through the preparatory survey on flood risk management project (Cagayan de Oro River basin), which was conducted in 2014. Through the developed master plan, in addition to the ongoing yen loan project, “Flood Risk Management Project (Cagayan de Oro River) (2015)”, another grant aid project entitled “Project for Developing Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Cagayan de Oro River Basin” is expected to start implementation in 2019. It is important to share information for effective implementation and produce synergy effects. Therefore, relevance is judged very high. i) Yen Loan Project  Title : Flood Risk Management Project (Cagayan de Oro River Basin)  L/A Date : 26 March 2015  Purpose : The objective of the Project is to mitigate flood risk in the Cagayan de Oro River basin through the construction of flood protection measures, and thereby contributing to the sustainable and stable economic development in the Cagayan de Oro River basin.

3-1 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 3 of Flood Forecasting and Warning ii) Grant Aid Project  Title : Improvement of Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Cagayan de Oro River Basin  Project Site : Cagayan de Oro  Purpose : To contribute to stable economic development and reduce flood damages by establishing flood forecasting system at Cagayan de Oro River Basin located at Northern Mindanao in the Philippines  Situation : The preparatory survey for the above project was completed in March 2018. Several procedures for project implementation are underway as of June 2019. Further, the Project contributes to “understanding disaster risks” which is one of the four priorities for action of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

~~(2) Effectiveness~~

~~The effectiveness is judged as high due to the following reasons:~~

The capacity of PAGASA HMD and target RFFWC on integrated data management/ utilization for FFWS would be consistently enhanced through the implementation of the Project. In particular, in terms of enhancement of data management, detailed actions as routine works required for assurance of data quality, which are referred to and utilized for FFW, are clearly defined in the form of guidelines and standards. Through the Project activities of PWG-B, CP’s skills and knowledge were firmly upgraded.

In addition, the PWG-B coordinated in the transfer of technology on the standard design of telemetry system. CP could learn and accumulate the prerequisite knowledge from the JICA Expert Team to expand and enhance through their own initiative.

~~(3) Efficiency~~

~~The efficiency is judged as medium due to the following reasons:~~

Timing, quantity, and quality of activities were appropriate and all activity results were fully utilized to generate the intended outputs as indicated by the relationship between the performed activities and the developed products including technical cooperation products. In fact, most of the activities related to the Project Outputs 1 to 5 were completed as planned. However, the following three key factors affected the implementation throughout the project period and remain to be solved:

~~1) Construction of the building of the Cagayan de Oro RFFWC~~

The building construction has been completed in April 2019 except for the finishing of floor, wall, and electrical facilities. The flood forecasting and warning services at the new building are still waiting for the official inauguration. Therefore, the equipment procured by the Project (large monitor and desktop computers) are temporarily stored in the PRSD building beside the new RFFWC building at El Salvador.

3-2 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 3 2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin

Malfunctioning batteries and other devices have been replaced and repaired once by MPRSD and HMTS of PAGASA in the first half of 2018. Thus, the observed records in the field are transmitted and stored in the PRSD. However, the data cannot be transmitted to the FTP in HMD and cannot be extracted yet.

~~3) Installation of JICS’s monitoring devices for Tagoloan River basin~~

The installation works of the JICS’s equipment were completed in September 2018. After the test operation period until December 2018, the following issues remain as of the end of May 2019:  One repeater station has not been installed and thus two stations are not transmitting data.  FFWS station names are not yet synchronized with official station names.  Some devices were incompletely delivered to gauging stations or RFFWC.

~~(4) Impact~~

~~The impact is judged as high due to the following reasons:~~

The various products to be developed by the Project will be introduced to the RFFWC for the major river basins beyond the Project’s target river basins. Besides, the experiences in the target river basins and HMD through the project activities could be duplicated in the other river basins in the future.

Further, HMD and PRSD held the River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Center Conference/Workshop in consecutive years from 2017 to 2019, which overlap the Project period. The purpose of the conference is “to enhance the performance of River Centers (including HMD’s FFWS) in terms of (i) flood forecasting and warning and (ii) data collection, processing and management” and this is purely proactive event organized and financed by PAGASA. It was agreed in PAGASA that this will be held annually. The latest assembly was conducted from June 4 to 6, 2019 at Baler in Aurora Province.

~~This can be recognized as one of the ripple effects of the Project and therefore, the Project caused a significant positive impact.~~

~~(5) Sustainability~~

~~The sustainability is judged as medium due to the following reasons:~~

The sustainability of the Project is expected to be generally assured in terms of political, organizational, financial, and technical aspects. In particular, based on the review of the actual Project activities conducted by three PWGs, the Project activities were sustained and the Project performance was quite satisfactory. However, specifically, the upgrading of FFW services toward higher Stages 2 and 3 deeply depends on the available deployment of staffs, who have qualified skills and knowledge, in accordance with the Roadmap. Further, in terms of staffing and human resources development, the earlier implementation of the PMP is key, because the

3-3 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 3 of Flood Forecasting and Warning Roadmap lies on the extension of the PMP in the future. In addition, financial arrangement will be required out of the PMP for implementation of the Medium-term Plans. Since at present, no discussions have been made yet, the earlier financial arrangement by PAGASA is expected to assure sustainable development of FFWS in the future.

~~3.2 Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes~~

~~(1) Full Implementation of the PMP~~

The PAGASA Modernization Program, which was duly contemplated to implement the PAGASA Modernization Act covering the three-year development program (2017-2019) of PAGASA, will deeply affect the organizational structure of PAGASA. However, it takes a long time for securing approval from DBM. In fact, the PMP will affect the operation of FFWS/ FFWSDO by HMD. In particular, the deployment of staff for the RFFWCs depends on the available budget for new positions to be approved by the PMP. Therefore, actual operation and upgrading of the FFW services by the RFFWCs will be affected.

~~(2) Exiting Monitoring Systems in Cagayan de Oro River Basin~~

Repeated problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin may affect the quality of hydrometeorological data as well as data acquisition. Although MPRSD continued to restore the malfunctioning equipment in coordination with HMTS of HMD after the Mid-term Review in January 2018, the field data cannot be properly transmitted to the MPRSD. In the Mid-term Review, PAGASA and the JICA Expert Team shared the crucial conditions and the recognition on the importance of the earlier restoration of the systems. However, there are still problems remaining in the existing monitoring systems in both Twin Phoenix and NDMI as follows: 1) As of end May 2019, four Twin Phoenix monitoring stations (Mambuaya and Tal- uban) are still not properly transmitting data to MPRSD, although the situation was improved at three other stations (Cosina, Tikalaan and Tumalaong) during this period by replacing batteries and solar charger controller. 2) As of end May 2019, the real-time data of NDMI stations cannot be viewed both at MPRSD and Cagayan de Oro CDRRMD due to the malfunction of NDMI’s Flash Flood Alert System (FFAS) GUI. This problem was initially reported in the Monitoring Sheet Ver.3 in July 2017 and has not been improved at all.

~~(3) Monitoring System in Tagoloan River Basin~~

Installation of the monitoring equipment was finally completed and data transmission from the gauging stations to RFFWC started in November 2018. However, as of end May 2019, the system is not yet fully operated due to several problems as follows: 1) One repeater station (Guhean) has not been installed and thus, two stations are not transmitting data. 2) FFWS station names are not yet synchronized with official station names. 3) Some devices (e.g., UPS) were incompletely delivered to gauging stations or RFFWC.

3-4 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 3 (4) Construction of RFFWC Building at El Salvador

The construction work of RFFWC building commenced in September 2018 after the twists and turns described in the previous versions of the Monitoring Sheet. At the time of preparing Monitoring Sheet Ver.5 in early August 2018, it was scheduled for completion in February 2019. Although the building construction was completed as of end May 2019, interior works such as wall painting, finishing of ceiling and floors including electrical wiring for computers and other apparatus have not been completed. Therefore, the equipment procured by the Project are still waiting for installation and start of operation.

~~(5) Security Situation in Mindanao~~

The security situation in Mindanao has not been improved. Project activities by Japanese experts in the target river basins, such as flood warning issuance and dissemination drill and training of discharge measurement for PWG members, were widely restricted.

~~3.3 Evaluation on the Results of the Project Risk Management~~

~~There are three important assumptions for the project purpose, which are described to identify the project risks in the PDM, and the results of their evaluations are as follows:~~

~~1) Securing necessary budget for phased development of RFFWCs~~

In parallel with the project implementation, HMD proceeded with the River Center Project and Optimization Project (ongoing) in coordination with PRSDs through their own budget, which included installation/ enhancement of monitoring stations. In addition, HMD actively dispatched the staffs to the hydrological and numerical modeling trainings/ workshops for FFW, which were organized by JICA and ICHARM. The budget allocation will positively contribute to the phased development of RFFWCs toward the project purpose.

~~2) Securing necessary budget for operation/ maintenance of the existing RFFWCs~~

Although PAGASA is continuously restoring works on the malfunctioning existing FFWSs with RFFWCs, some defects of the equipment in the Cagayan, Agno, and Pampanga River basins could not be restored and they remain malfunctioning due to insufficient budget allocation. Therefore, the repair and rehabilitation of the existing FFWSs are prioritized and shall be upgraded through the implementation of the Roadmap and the Medium-term Plans.

~~3) No transfer of counterpart personnel who are trained by the Project to other jobs~~

In conformity with the recommendation of the Mid-term Review Team in January 2018, PAGASA immediately reviewed the membership of the Project Working Group. Then, additional nine personnel were nominated resulting in a total of 41 to enhance the Project activities. Although few members were shifted to other offices and quitted from the PWG, most of the members maintained their original tasks and continued the Project activities.

~~In addition to the above, a security issue was added to secure the Project output as follows:~~

3-5 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 3 of Flood Forecasting and Warning 4) No significant deterioration of security situation

During the Project implementation period between 2017 and 2019, security condition in the target area, in particular in Mindanao island, was hampered by terrorism of the extremely aggressive religious groups, for instance, large-scale explosion at night market in Davao City in September 2016 and attack by heavy armed forces and temporary occupation by Islamic group in Marawi City in Lanao del Sur in April 2017. In fact, martial law was declared by the president to keep the safety in Mindanao. Although field activities of the Project outside of Cagayan de Oro City were prohibited, the quality of the Project output could still be achieved through careful management and cooperation with JICA Philippine Office.

~~In conclusion, the risk management of the Project was appropriately controlled, and the risks presumed at the commencement of the Project have not seriously affected the Project.~~

~~3.4 Lessons Learned~~

~~3.4.1 Issues, Countermeasures and Lessons Common to All Activities~~

~~(1) Collaborative Works with CP through PWG~~

Issue: In some cases, it may be difficult for each CP to actively participate in the Project activities if s/he is involved as one of many CP members. Such situations make effective technology transfer difficult.

Countermeasure: Both CP members and the JICA Expert Team are grouped by expertise and then three Project Working Groups (PWG-A, -B, -C) were organized. A PWG meeting is regularly held for enhancing and strengthening capacity through collaborative works among the PWG members in terms of information collection, study, preparation of output, discussion, and presentation, among others.

Lessons: Periodical meeting and information sharing among the PWGs facilitated the Project activities. However, the CPs tended to have attention/ interests on only the subjects relevant to the PWG where they belong to. Therefore, some cross-cutting activities such as Joint PWG meeting should be held as well.

~~(2) Public Relations Activities for the Public in the Target Areas~~

Issue: Since the project brief note (PBN), which is one of the means for public relations, is intended for the Project stakeholders, some technical knowledge is required for reading the PBN. On the other hand, ultimate recipients of flood information are the general public and therefore, it is necessary for them to understand PAGASA’s FFWS as well as the Project outline even without technical knowledge.

Countermeasure: In addition to the PBN, a poster and a brochure were prepared for distribution and display at the Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC and the LGUs concerned. In preparing these materials, consideration was given to the public by using a lot of

3-6 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 3

~~illustrations and easy-to-grasp expressions and translating them into Visayan, which is the local dialect widely used in the target areas.~~

Lessons: Visual material to explain the project purpose and activities to local people is very effective. Further, in case a dialect is dominant among the people in the target areas, the material would be better to be written in the local language.

~~(3) Setting of Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVIs) for the Project Purpose~~

Issue: Because the Project does not include provision or repair of monitoring equipment, data unavailability associated with equipment failure cannot be managed. This means that the OVI for improving data acquisition, which has been set in the initial PDM, will not be achieved even if the Project is implemented.

Countermeasure: The JICA Expert Team proposed to set an OVI that is able to evaluate actions to be taken by PAGASA staff by encouraging efforts and improvement of actions through the Project activities. The team focused on the actions to remove causes of data unavailability (downtime) and finally set an OVI that evaluates the time required for restoring trouble of a flood forecasting system.

Lesson: The OVI is expected to encourage PAGASA staff to consider how to efficiently and systematically execute maintenance works of monitoring equipment if PAGASA itself continuously monitors the OVI as a result of self-reliant efforts.

~~(4) Prioritized Employment of Local Contractors for Subcontract Works~~

~~Issue: There was a concern for smooth progress control and thorough instructions to the contractors for survey works, because the target river basins are located in Mindanao Island.~~

Countermeasure: Not only the records in PAGASA MPRSD but also track records and reputation in the DPWH Regional Office and other agencies were researched as well. As much as possible, reliable local contractors, which are familiar with the conditions in the target river basins, were identified and a shortlist was prepared for selection.

Lesson: On the occasion of similar survey works in the future, the experiences can be utilized. In addition, as for the surveys in other river basins in Mindanao Island, the possibility of selection of experienced local contractors will increase.

~~(5) Linkage between Project Activities and Elements of Counterpart Training in Japan~~

~~Issue: It is expected that the results of the training will be effectively fed back to the routine works in which the trainees are engaged.~~

Countermeasure: In order not to lean to certain styles of training (lecture, excursion, drill, etc.), the themes and site visits for the training were selected and, in particular, linkage with Project activities was taken into account. Further, the JICA Expert Team member(s) always accompanied the trainees and proactively cooperated for better

3-7 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 3 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

understanding of the training element (at the site visits, the JICA Expert Team member(s) could supplement the explanation to the officials of the offices/ agencies concerned considering the conditions in the Philippines.

~~Lesson: It is expected that the impact of the training activities and comprehension of the trainees can be enhanced.~~

~~(6) Contents of Seminar Program~~

Issue: During the Project implementation period, eight JCC meetings and three seminars were held. Although it is supposed to invite wider range of participants to the seminar than JCC, most of the participants overlap. It was necessary to differentiate the program contents between the seminar and JCC.

Countermeasure: Each seminar sets a particular theme for including presentations according to the theme as well as reporting of Project activities. Resource persons were invited from outside the Project so that the participants can obtain new inputs.

Lessons: In order to transfer technologies along the purpose of the seminars, resource personnel, who have experiences in the same technical areas in the recipient country, should be selected to draw interests from the CP.

~~(7) Involvement of Mindanao CP Members~~

~~Issue: CP members are dispersed between Manila where PAGASA HQ is located and Mindanao where the target areas are located. It was necessary to proceed with the Project activities in remote areas.~~

Countermeasure: At the time of the PWG meeting, teleconferencing system was used so that Mindanao members could also participate in the discussions. Besides, as Mindanao members gather in Manila when JCC or seminar was held at HQ, PWG meetings were timed to coincide with the JCC or seminar.

Lesson: Although the above countermeasure improved the situation, participation of the Mindanao members in JCC or seminar was still limited partly due to financial conditions of their office. Further countermeasures should have been necessary in order to strengthen their ownership through HMD guidance and to prioritize this Project over other activities in PAGASA.

~~3.4.2 Issues, Countermeasures, and Lessons in Respective Activities~~

~~(1) Ownership Mind of the Project in Preparation of the Roadmap~~

~~Issue: Since the Draft Roadmap is needed to be prepared for the 18 river basins, huge work volume was anticipated, and so work efficiency was primarily required.~~

~~Countermeasure: In addition to the regular eight members of PWG-A, the JICA Expert Team requested assistance from non-members in RFFWC and HMD as well and staff in~~

3-8 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 3

~~charge for respective river basin were decided. Preparation of the Draft Roadmap was accelerated by saving time and by sharing the work load.~~

Lesson: To fix the membership of the PWG, some flexibilities might be allowed, if more input and collaboration to achieve the Project output rather than the planned level are judged necessary. Through the activities by the additional PWG members, on the other hand, ownership mind of the Project will be strengthened and expanded among the executing agency.

~~(2) Systematization of Nomenclature for Time Series Dataset~~

Issue: In a certain river basin, monitoring stations have been installed and operated by different projects/ programs and this trend will be strengthened, and then efficient data management becomes rather difficult than before.

Countermeasure: The nomenclature for AQUARIUS location folders, location identifiers and time series datasets of monitoring stations was formulated based on the PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP) and the requirements of AQUARIUS HIS.

~~Lesson: By means of the established rules for naming the folders in the integrated hydrometeorological database, PAGASA can add new monitoring stations to the database whenever they are introduced.~~

~~(3) Integrated Database Establishment~~

Issue: Observation data of existing FFWSs are transmitted to HMD in different formats. While in the future, AQUARIUS will be installed in each RFFWC, and data integration will be achieved by linking it with AQUARIUS of HMD, until such date, there would be no progress in data integration, unless any actions are taken rather than just waiting for the installation.

~~Countermeasure: Without changing the data formats used in different FFWSs, an arrangement was adopted for converting the data format during the uploading stage on the AQUARIUS of HMD.~~

Lesson: It is only a desk theory that data integration would be readily achieved for the existing system by creating a standard data format and preparing a container of integrated database. It is necessary to incorporate, from the conceptual phase of the Project, a process of integrating existing systems, without stopping them, into one system with time and care.

~~(4) Activity Restrictions by Martial Law in Mindanao~~

Issue: Due to the martial law in Mindanao (issued in May 2017), Japanese expert’s activities in Mindanao were restricted only inside Cagayan de Oro City. Thus, Japanese expert can neither visit outside the city for a meeting with relevant organizations nor supervise the discharge measurement at the water level gauging stations outside the city.

3-9 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 3 of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Countermeasure: While staying in Cagayan de Oro City, Japanese expert elaborately held a meeting with MPRSD staff and the subcontractor. In addition, activities outside the city were followed up by a local staff from the JICA Expert Team.

Lesson: In spite of expectations on the early termination of the martial law in Mindanao, it was extended until end of 2019 through President Rodrigo Duterte’s request in December 2018 (third extension). Even though the Project activities by the Japanese experts were restricted to some extent in the target area, local consultants with the CP supplemented and supported the activities to achieve them as planned.

~~(5) New Technology in Dissemination of Flood Warnings~~

Issue: The members of the working group should be more familiarized with the technology of recent warning dissemination in the Philippines. The Emergency Warning Broadcast System (EWBS) is an innovation of nationwide dissemination using Terrestrial Digital TV and Mobile Emergency Alert System (MEAS) which uses cellular phone infrastructure as a means of dissemination. PAGASA must know how their forecasting services will be related to these technologies and be involved in the incidences of flood warnings.

Countermeasure: Tutorials regarding new technologies of public dissemination were conducted in the working group meeting and also presented at the JCC meeting in which the officials of other government agencies participated.

~~Lessons: The new technology that will be developed in PAGASA should be shared regularly with HMD through internal collaboration.~~

~~(6) Staff Deployment Plan of RFFWC~~

Issue: Appropriate staff deployment is essential for the developed RFFWC in order that the developed RFFWC could fulfill its tasks including hydrological observation/analysis, telecommunication network, data management, and flood forecasting and warning. In addition, it is required to formulate a plan with important viewpoints of the current situation of the existing RFFWC revealed by the baseline survey that the present staff capacity is difficult to cope with sufficient O&M services and troubleshooting, and that training of the next generation is necessary as successor staff of the present senior RFFWC staff.

Countermeasure: In formulating a stage-wise staff deployment plan according to the RFFWC development level, it is essential to keep a sustainable plan in mind by taking account of realizable staff training and placement schedule for the new RFFWC as well as not only staff expansion but also promotion of the successor staff for the existing RFFWC.

3-10 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 4

~~CHAPTER 4 FOR THE ACHIEVEMENT OF OVERALL GOALS AFTER THE PROJECT COMPLETION~~

~~4.1 Prospects to Achieve Overall Goal~~

~~The overall goal is set as follows: “Overall capacity of PAGASA on integrated data management/ utilization for Flood Forecasting and Warning System (FFWS) is enhanced.”~~

The expectation of accomplishment of the overall goal is analyzed through the evaluation of four OVIs as follows: OVI-1. The current status of OVI-1 of the Project Purpose for the target five river basins are described with respective background reasons in Clause 2.2.2(1). As a result, although the Project Purpose has not been achieved in all the river basins, possible improvement of OVI-1 is foreseen as follows: ◆ Cagayan de Oro and Pasig-Laguna de Bay Continuous periodical maintenance of the equipment and enhancement of capacity of the data management staff will be prerequisite to improve the OVI figure. ◆ Pampanga It is expected that San Rafael Repeater Station in Bulacan will be restored at the earliest to receive the field data through budget allocation in PAGASA. ◆ Agno The water level gauging station at Binalonan in the Pantal-Sinocalan River (allied river of the Agno River system) has temporarily stopped observation due to the disturbance by the bridge rehabilitation works by DPWH. After completion of the construction works, Binalonan G/S will be restored and resume its observation work. Then, OVI-1 will be improved accordingly. ◆ Cagayan Renewal of the obsolete telemetry system, which has been installed in 1982 through the assistance of the Government of Japan, is fundamentally required in Cagayan. On the other hand, installation of monitoring network with telemetry system has been completed by the end of 2018 at six river basins, i.e.: Bicol, Abra, Jalaur, Tagoloan, Davao, and Tagum-Libuganon. Therefore, the initial value of the OVI- 1 for six months will be estimated from January to June or July to December 2019 by means of the same methodology applied. In view of the above, the possibility of the accomplishment of the declining trend of OVI-1 will be fairly high with conditions of appropriate restoration works by PAGASA in accordance with the Operational Guidelines and other technical cooperation products prepared by the Project. OVI-2. The Quality Management Standard for archive data (QMS-3) is applied to the data of five river basins (Cagayan, Agno, Pampanga, Pasig-Laguna de Bay, and Cagayan de Oro) using functions of AQUARIUS HIS. During the Project implementation period, in river basins other than the abovementioned rivers, the

4-1 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 4 of Flood Forecasting and Warning establishment of real-time data transfer mechanism has been in progress, and one of which, using web service (SOAP/WSDL/XML) in the Bicol River, has been completed. If the responsibility of periodically retrieving logger data recorded locally is defined as one of RFFWCs, as described in QMS-1, after completion of the Project, the possibility of application of quality standards and conducting appropriate quality management of hydrologic data in other river basins will be high. OVI-3. Even after the real-time data transfer is achieved in major rivers, logger data must be periodically collected to check or fill gaps of observed data in these rivers. For HMD to implement quality management on the integrated database efficiently, so as to achieve the numerical target of 80%, logger data are better to be reflected in the local database in RFFWCs, then relayed to the integrated database in HMD, rather than collecting such data from all the RFFWCs and uploading into the integrated database. Quality management of the real-time data (QMS-2) performed by RFFWCs using local database is also prerequisite to efficient data management. Proper demarcation of responsibility of processing logger data and introduction of AQUARIUS HIS in RFFWCs are requirements for achieving the indicator. OVI-4. Possibility of this overall goal will be high if the Roadmap and the Medium-term Plans are recognized and duly approved with budget preparation by PAGASA. In particular, required staff for FFW operations in the newly established RFFWCs such as Davao, Jalaur, and Abra River basins need to be expedited. The PMP should be implemented and expedited for human resources deployment with task allotment. Further, the RFFWCs and HMD need to customize and apply the Operational Guidelines to meet the respective basin characteristics.

Based on the status mentioned above, the expectation of accomplishment of the overall goal, which has been set in PDM, could be evaluated as “will be achieved with conditions”. The prospect by each OVI is summarized in Table 4.1.1.

Table 4.1.1 Prospects of Achieving the Overall Goal Overall Goal Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVI) Prospect of Achievement Overall capacity of PAGASA 1. The average number of days required for Troubles can be restored by on integrated data restoring a trouble of a flood forecasting appropriate operation & maintenance management/ utilization for system shows a declining trend in the 11 in accordance with the Operational Flood Forecasting and river basins, namely: Pampanga, Agno, Guidelines on RFFWC and other Warning System (FFWS) is Bicol, Cagayan, Pasig-Laguna de Bay, technical cooperation products. enhanced. Abra, Jalaur, Cagayan de Oro, Tagoloan, Subsequently, the downtime could Davao and Tagum-Libuganon River basins. show a declining trend. 2. Quality management of HMD has gained the experience of hydrometeorological data of the 11 river applying quality management basins is conducted at HMD in accordance standards on five river basins with the quality management standards targeted during the Project period. prepared by the Project. The possibility of conducting appropriate quality management of hydrologic data in other river basins will be high. 3. At least 80% of hydrometeorological Proper demarcation of responsibility data of the 11 river basins are stored in the of processing logger data and integrated database by applying a standard introduction of AQUARIUS HIS in data format and quality management RFFWCs are requirements for standards. achieving the indicator.

4-2 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 4

Overall Goal Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVI) Prospect of Achievement 4. Flood forecasting and warning is The staff deployment to new operational (issuance of flood bulletins) at RFFWCs in accordance with the the 11 river basins. PMP is prerequisite to operationalize FFW services at the earliest. Further, the Operational Guidelines on RFFWC should be customized and applied to the tasks of each RFFWC appropriately. This could facilitate accomplishment of OVI-4. Source: JICA Expert Team

~~4.2 Plan of Operation and Implementation Structure of the Philippine Side to Achieve Overall Goal~~

~~(1) Full Operation of the New Organizational Setup by the PMP~~

In order to sustain the FFWS development as well as to closely monitor the progress, the new organizational setting of PAGASA proposed by PMP should be affirmed and launched at the earliest. Therefore, earlier approval of the PMP will be crucial in this aspect. In particular, the staff deployment under the new organization of PFOs and RFFWCs for FFW services should be expedited to assure the implementation of the Roadmap and the Medium-term Plans as recommended. As for the smooth implementation of the plans formulated by the Project to achieve the overall goal, some key points from institutional aspects delineated and clarified through the Project activities are noted in the next clause.

~~(2) Setting-up for Operation and Implementation Structure~~

According to the latest PMP as of November 2018, the PAGASA Field Office (PFO) will be established in eight locations nationwide by renaming/expanding the existing PRSD or newly established. However, it is not definitely described whether the expansion means the decentralization by increasing of staff or involvement of new function(s) which are not in the present PRSD. Further, the RFFWC is almost determined to be under the jurisdiction of the PFO, while no specific allocation of each RFFWC to the respective PFO is determined yet.

In addition, the institutional relation between PFO and RFFWC is not definitely determined yet according to the PMP although the following different formations seem to be described in the PMP: 1) RFFWCs will be under the regional jurisdiction of the corresponding PFO together with the other observation stations in the same region, which is same as the present PRSD formation, 2) The FFW services will be one of the PFO’s tasks according to the description in the PMP that “PFO will be responsible for FFWS”, and 3) A forecasting division will be established in the PFO according to the description in the PMP that “PFO will house a Forecasting Division to provide localized forecasts and warnings”. According to the interview with the top management of PAGASA, the independence of RFFWCs will be ensured on the FFW operation although the RFFWCs will be under the jurisdiction of the corresponding PFO. The staff deployment plan was formulated through this

4-3 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 4 of Flood Forecasting and Warning Project so that the required tasks of an improved RFFWC as described in the Roadmap could be fulfilled by the respective professional staff. When each RFFWC would enter the specific jurisdiction of the eight PFOs respectively, the following consideration would be necessary: 1) whether overall staff should be allocated to the PFO to cover the jurisdictional RFFWCs depending on the individual organizational and operational formation, 2) whether supplementary management or logistic staff is required for the operation of the RFFWC, particularly for some isolated RFFWC(s), such as those located in a different island from the PFO’s location.

~~4.3 Recommendations for the Philippine Side~~

~~(1) Earlier Resolution of Crucial Issues~~

Toward solving the crucial issues, it is essential to make certain detailed actions and responsibilities of concerned divisions/ sections in PAGASA and to clarify the time frame for assuring implementation. It is recommended that monitoring should be continued by HMD with MPRSD to facilitate the improvement and upgrading of FFWS as conducted through the Project activities.

~~(2) Acceptance of the Roadmap and the Medium-term Plans by PAGASA~~

In order to accomplish the overall goal, the Roadmap and the Medium-term Plans should be approved at the earliest by PAGASA and then stipulated as PAGASA’s own plans. FFWS development and improvement in accordance with the Roadmap and the Medium-term Plans should be incorporated into PAGASA’s annual plan of operation with budget allocation.

~~(3) Acceleration of Dissemination and Operation of Project Output~~

In order to continue to enhance FFWS in the 18 river basins, effective utilization of 13 kinds of technical cooperation products will be essential and indispensable. In this connection, it is expected that HMD, RFFWCs, and PRSD will effectively utilize and customize the products at the earliest toward accomplishment of the overall goal. The intended users are listed in Table 2.1.42.

~~(4) Acceleration of Introduction of AQUARIUS~~

PAGASA has decided to introduce AQUARIUS for data management at HMD and each RFFWC. Sound preparation of budget is key since huge investment is necessary. PAGASA should endeavor to include the procurement of AQUARIUS software in its annual procurement plan.

~~(5) Hiring of Appropriate Number of Staff in RFFWC and Enhancement of Human Resources Development~~

In order to manage the increased routine works, HMD and the existing RFFWC are hiring temporary workers such as interns and job-order staff. Although this trend will likely continue, it is very important to proceed in accordance with the human resources development plan

4-4 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Completion Report of Flood Forecasting and Warning Chapter 4 recommended by the Project. In particular, stepwise upgrading of FFW services requires timely deployment of appropriate number of staffs who have the necessary proficiency. Assignment of the staffs responsible for the respective professional tasks is not specifically shown in the PMP. Therefore, actual staff deployment and assignment with specific professional responsibility are essential including staff assignment plan for the data management system and operation and maintenance of equipment. Specifically, in the field of hydrology toward FFW operation, providing training opportunities locally and abroad proactively is also important to encourage human resources development.

~~(6) Efficient Institutional System by PFO and RFFWC for FFW Operation~~

It is necessary to promptly set up a demarcation of the work during operational activities that emphasizes the independence of the FFW operation to be implemented by RFFWC even if under PFO jurisdiction, as well as the definitive organizational arrangement and jurisdiction system of PFO and RFFWC as mentioned in the previous Section 4.2.

~~4.4 Monitoring Plan from the End of the Project to Ex-post Evaluation~~

It is highly expected that PAGASA will accelerate the stage-wise development of the seven components of FFWS in accordance with the Roadmap and the Medium-term Plan as recommended in the previous Section 4.3. The Medium-term Plan was contemplated for seven river basins of Group A aiming at the completion of Stage 3 development by 2024. Meanwhile, the developments of other river basins in Group B and Group C are targeted to be completed by 2027 and 2030, respectively.

On the other hand, ex-post evaluation of the Project will be generally conducted by JICA to assess whether the effect of the Project is sustained as planned three years after the project completion, i.e., 2022, in terms of the OVIs for the overall goal in the PDM.

Therefore, during the period after the project completion until the ex-post evaluation, it is recommended that the monitoring works should be continued as conducted by the current Project among HMD, RFFWCs, and PRSD. The respective OVIs set for the target 11 major river basins should be duly evaluated and recorded appropriately.

The 11 target river basins consist of seven basins from Group A and four basins from Group B. On the other hand, the project purpose of the current project was set for the five river basins from Group A, because of the high priority for enhancement of FFWS envisaged by PAGASA. Further, the Medium-term Plan covers only Group A river basins except Group B.

In view of the above, it should be recognized that the monitoring works for the development of six river basins (Bicol, Abra, Jalaur, Tagoloan, Davao, and Tagum-Libuganon) should be started in 2019 in the same manner as for the five river basins applied by the Project every six months. The periodical review of the four indicators (OVI-1: data storage, OVI-2: data quality, OVI-3: integrated database, and OVI-4: FFW operation) should be conducted by HMD, RFFWCs, and PRSD jointly.

4-5 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Completion Report Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management Chapter 4 of Flood Forecasting and Warning As a result of the discussions with the PAGASA side, the basic concept of the continuous monitoring works after the Project, which is presented in this clause, was mutually accepted in June 2019.

~~4-6 Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Foundation of River & Basin Integrated Communications, Japan Attachment-1~~

~~Record of Discussions~~

~~Attachment-2~~

~~Monitoring Sheet (including PDM and PO)~~

~~PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~TO CR of JICA PHILIPPINE OFFICE~~

~~PROJECT MONITORING SHEET~~

Project Title : Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version of the Sheet: Ver.1 （Term: July, 2016 - July, 2016） Name: Vicente B. MALANO, PhD MNSA Title: Project Director Name: Yoshihiro MOTOKI Title: Team Leader/ Flood Management/ Flood Forecasting and Warning Submission Date: July 13, 2016 I. Summary 1 Progress 1-1 Progress of Inputs Total input of JICA expert team up to July 12, 2016 is 0.97 M/M as summarized in the table below. M/M Position Name Contract Performed Progress Team Leader/Flood Management/Flood Forecasting & Warning Yoshihiro MOTOKI 11.5 0.30 2.6% Deputy Team Leader/ River Management Hikaru SUGIMOTO 8.5 0.27 3.1% Integrated Data Management/ Database Minoru KURIKI 10.8 0.30 2.8% Monitoring System/ Hydrology Shirou HISHINUMA 8.0 0.00 0.0% Information & Communication/ Warning Issuance Yoshiyuki SHINJI 9.5 0.10 1.1% Institutional Strengthening / Human Resources Development Masaki ITO 7.5 0.00 0.0% Total 55.8 0.97 1.7%

1-2 Progress of Activities The following activities have been commenced as scheduled: [Activity 1-1] To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major river basins, and to extract problems in FFWS [Activity 3-1] To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible problems of new RFFWCs

~~1-3 Achievement of Output Since the project is still in an early phase of implementation, nothing has been achieved.~~

~~1-4 Achievement of the Project Purpose Since the project is still in an early phase of implementation, nothing has been achieved.~~

~~1 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~1-5 Changes of Risks and Actions for Mitigation No change.~~

~~1-6 Progress of Actions undertaken by JICA JICA Philippine office confirmed the progress of actions taken by PAGASA.~~

1-7 Progress of Actions undertaken by Gov. of Philippines PAGASA provided JICA expert team with office space for 3~4 people. PAGASA assigned 12 members of counterpart personnel. PAGASA organized the 1st JCC on July 13, 2016.

~~1-8 Progress of Environmental and Social Considerations (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~1-9 Progress of Considerations on Gender/Peace Building/Poverty Reduction (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~1-10 Other remarkable/considerable issues related/affect to the project (such as other JICA's projects, activities of counterparts, other donors, private sectors, NGOs etc.) None.~~

~~2 Delay of Work Schedule and/or Problems (if any) 2-1 Detail No specific issue.~~

~~2-2 Cause - 2-3 Action to be taken - 2-4 Roles of Responsible Persons/Organization (JICA, Gov. of Philippines, etc.) -~~

~~3 Modification of the Project Implementation Plan 3-1 PO No modification.~~

~~2 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

3-2 Other modifications on detailed implementation plan (Remarks: The amendment of R/D and PDM (title of the project, duration, project site(s), target group(s), implementation structure, overall goal, project purpose, outputs, activities, and input) should be authorized by JICA HDQs. If the project team deems it necessary to modify any part of R/D and PDM, the team may propose the draft.) No modification.

~~4 Preparation of Gov. of Philippines toward after completion of the Project No particular action in this period.~~

~~II. Project Monitoring Sheet I & II as Attached~~

~~3 PM Form3-2 Monitoring Sheet I~~

~~Project Monitoring Sheet I （Revision of Project Design Matrix）~~

Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version 1 Implementing Agency: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Dated July 13, 2016 Target Group:Staff of PAGASA Hidro-Meteorology Division (HMD) and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Period of Project:July 2016 – June 2019 (36 months) Project Site: PAGASA Headquarters and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Narrative Summary Objectively Verifiable Indicators Means of Verification Important Assumption Achievement Remarks Overall Goal 1. Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of all 18 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data RFFWCs are received at HMD. Monitoring 2. Quality management of hydrometeorological data of all 18 2. Record of Hydrometeorological Data Overall capacity of PAGASA on integral RFFWCs is conducted at HMD. Monitoring data management/ utilization for Flood 3. Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of all 18 3. Integrated Database Forecasting and Warning System RFFWCs are stored in the integrated database. (FFWS) is enhanced. 4. Flood forecasting and warning is conducted at all 18 4. Survey before Ex-post Evaluation RFFWCs.

Project Purpose 1. Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of Cagayan 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data ・ Necessary budget for phased de Oro/Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs are received at Monitoring development of RFFWCs is secured. HMD. Capacity of PAGASA HMD and target 2. Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of Cagayan 2. Integrated Database ・ Necessary budget for RFFWC on integral data management/ de Oro/Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs are stored in the operation/maintenance of the existing utilization for FFWS is enhanced. integrated database. RFFWCs is secured. 3. Flood forecasting and warning is started at Cagayan de 3. Survey before the Project termination ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC. by the Project do not transferred to other job.

Outputs 1. Capacity on formulation of FFWS 1.1 Draft medium-term plan for enhancement of FFWS in 1-1 Project Report ・ Necessary budget for phased development Plan of PAGASA HMD is accordance with the draft roadmap is reviewed. development of RFFWCs is secured. enhanced. 2. Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on 2.1 A hydrometeorological database using the standard data 2-1 Interview of HMD ・ Necessary budget for operation/ quality management/ storage of the format is established and operated. maintenance of the existing RFFWCs hydro-meteorological data is enhanced. and renewal of equipment is secured. 2.2 Quality management standards are obeyed at HMD in 2-2 Interview of HMD ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained handling hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de by the Project do not transferred to other Oro/Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. job. 3. Organization/staffing and, 3.1 Not less than 2 number of RFFWCs are developed 3-1 Questionnaires to HMD and each ・ Security situation does not deteriorate equipment/facility of RFFWC are according to the draft development standards for staffing and RFFWC significantly. standardized according to the equipment/facilities. development levels of FFWS. 3.2 Not less than 2 number of RFFWCs obey guidelines for 3-2 Questionnaires to HMD and each RFFWC operations RFFWCs 3.3 Procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other 3-3 Questionnaires to HMD concerned organizations are agreed/adopted by concerned parties. 4. Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS 4.1 Flood warning water levels at observation stations of 4-1 Interview of HMD of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers are established by HMD. basins is enhanced. 4.2 Trainings on issuing flood warning are conducted at not 4-2 Interview of HMD less than 2 number of RFFWCs. 5. Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5.1 Hydrometeorological data of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5-1 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood RFFWC are transmitted to HMD periodically according to the RFFWC forecasting and warning is developed. guidelines. 5.2 Flood warning is issued according to the rules whenever 5-2 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ tagoloan water level of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers reaches to RFFWC the warning level.

Activities Inputs Important Assumption 1-1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major river basins, and to extract The Japanese Side The Phillipinne Side problems in FFWS 1. JICA Experts 1. Counterpart Personnel ・ Newly developed standards/manuals 1-2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major rivers (1) Team Leader / Flood Control / Flood (1) Project Manager are approved/ adopted by concerned Forecasting & Warning (2) Hydrologist organizations. 1-3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for deciding priority of phased (2) Deputy Team Leader / River Management (3) Monitoring/ Communi-cations Staff developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers (3) Integral Data Management/Database (4) ICT Staff ・ Counterpart personnel who are 1-4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS (4) Monitoring System/ Runoff Analysis (5) Support Staff trained by the Project do not (5) Information & Communication/ Warning 2. Office space for the Project including transferred to other job. ・ Security situation does not 1-5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS incl. budget estimation Notification telephone, facsimile, internet services and other office essentials (in PAGASA deteriorate significantly. (6) Institutional Strengthening/ Human ・ Monitoring equipment for the target 2-1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation data of PAGASA Headquarters and River Center) Resource Development rivers planed by JICS and NDMI is 3. Expense necessary for execution of 2. Equipment installed. 2-2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the existing FFWS/FFWSDO ・ Desktop PC: 3 sets the Project (customs duty for equipment, ・ Data server: 2 sets remuneration/travel cost/ per diem etc. Pre-Conditions 2-3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned organizations ・ Large Monitor (40 inch): 1 set for the counterpart ・ Technical staff are assigned at target 2-4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of development level in the future, ・ Multifunction printer: 1 set RFFWC. expandability and efficiency ・ Inkjet printer: 1 set ・ 2-5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data Database software: 15 licenses ・ GIS software: 1 set 2-6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input the hydrometeorological data ・ Program software: 1 set with the standard data format ・ Current meter / Float: 1 set /1 lot 2-7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated hydrometeorological database 3. Local Subcontract ・ River Cross Section Survey：1 lot 2-8 To check malfunction of the existing FFWS observation/communication equipment ・ Discharge Measurement：1 lot 4. Training in Japan 2-9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning existing FFWS observation/ communication ・ Utilization of hydro-meteorological data on equipment for budgeting by PAGASA flood and river managements: 2 times 3-1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible problems of new RFFWCs 3-2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information transmission at the time of flooding and to propose efficient procedures for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs 3-3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data trans¬mission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 3-4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA’s internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs 3-5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 4-1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data transmission plan 4-2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC, and to establish flood warning water levels 4-3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins 4-4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data transmitted from RFFWC 5-1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD 5-2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically

5-3 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 5-4 To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD PM FORM3-3 Monitoring Sheet II

Project Monitoring Sheet II (Revision of Plan of Operation) Version.1 Dated July 13, 2016 Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Monitoring Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Inputs Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡ ⅢⅣ

Activities Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Responsible Organization Issue & Achievements Sub-Activities Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣ Japan GOP Countermeasures Output 1: Capacity Information of FFWS development plan of PAGASA HMD is enhanced 1.1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ river basins, and to extract problems in FFWS Actual 1.2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■■■ rivers Actual 1.3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■ deciding priority of phased developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers Actual ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ 1.4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Actual 1.5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ incl. budget estimation Actual Output 2:Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on quality management/storage of the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced 2.1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation ○○◎○○ Plan ■ data of PAGASA Actual 2.2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the ○○◎○○ Plan ■ existing FFWS/FFWSDO Actual 2.3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ organizations Actual 2.4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ □□□□□□□ development level in the future, expandability and efficiency Actual 2.5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ data Actual 2.6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input ○○◎○○ Plan ■■■■ the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format Actual 2.7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ hydrometeorological database Actual 2.8 To check malfunction of the existing observation/communication ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ equipment Actual 2.9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning observation/ ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ communication equipment for budgeting by PAGASA Actual Output 3: Organization/staffing and, equipment/facility of RFFWC are standarized according to the development levels of FFWS 3.1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible ◎○○○○○ Plan ■ problems of new RFFWCs Actual 3.2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ transmission at the time of flooding, and to propose efficient procedures Actual for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs 3.3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ facility design, data trans¬mission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications Actual between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 3.4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Actual 3.5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings Actual with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Output 4: Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins is enhanced 4.1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and ○◎○○○○ Plan ■■■■■■ hydrometeorological data transmission plan Actual 4.2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning Actual water levels 4.3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan ○○◎○ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ de Oro and Tagoloan river basins Actual 4.4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ transmitted from RFFWC Actual Output 5: Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood forecasting and warning is developed 5.1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Actual ○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ 5.2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Actual 5.3 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through Actual meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 5.4 To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing ○◎○○ ○ Plan ■■ observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD Actual Plan Duration / Phasing Actual

Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Monitoring Plan Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢ Ⅳ Monitoring Plan ■■■■■■■■ Joint Coordination Committee Actual ■ Plan ■ Set-up the Detailed Plan of Operation Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Submission of Monitoring Sheet Actual ■ Plan Monitoring Mission from Japan Actual Plan Joint Monitoring Actual Plan Post Monitoring Actual Reports/Documents Plan ■ Work Plan Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Monitoring Sheet Actual ■ Plan ■ Prgress report Actual Plan ■ Project Completion Report Actual Public Relations Plan ■■■■■■ PR Activities Actual Plan ■■■ Project Brief Note Actual ■ Plan ■■ ■ Seminar Actual PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary

~~TO CR of JICA PHILIPPINE OFFICE~~

~~PROJECT MONITORING SHEET~~

Project Title : Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version of the Sheet: Ver.2 （Term: July, 2016 - January, 2017） Name: Vicente B. MALANO, PhD MNSA Title: Project Director Name: Yoshihiro MOTOKI Title: Team Leader/ Flood Management/ Flood Forecasting and Warning Submission Date: February 7, 2017 I. Summary 1 Progress 1-1 Progress of Inputs (1) Expert Total input of JICA expert team up to January 2017 is 20.17 M/M as summarized in the table below. M/M Position Name Contract Performed Progress Team Leader/Flood Management/Flood Forecasting & Warning Yoshihiro MOTOKI 11.5 4.00 34.8% Deputy Team Leader/ River Management Hikaru SUGIMOTO 8.5 2.60 30.6% Integrated Data Management/ Database Minoru KURIKI 10.8 4.57 42.3% Monitoring System/ Hydrology Shirou HISHINUMA 8.0 2.50 31.3% Information & Communication/ Warning Issuance Yoshiyuki SHINJI 9.5 4.00 42.1% Institutional Strengthening / Human Resources Development Masaki ITO 7.5 2.50 33.3% Total 55.8 20.17 36.1% (2) Equipment Multifunction printer, inkjet printer, current meter and float have been procured. (3) Training in Japan The 1st training in Japan is scheduled in the second half of May 2017.

1-2 Progress of Activities The following activities have been completed in this period: [Activity 1.1] To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major river basins, and to extract problems in FFWS [Activity 1.2] To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major rivers [Activity 1.3] To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for deciding priority of phased developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers [Activity 2.1] To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation data of PAGASA

~~1 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

[Activity 2.2] To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the existing FFWS/ FFWSDO [Activity 2.3] To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned organizations [Activity 2.4] To establish standard data format considering improvement of development level in the future, expandability and efficiency [Activity 2.8] To check malfunction of the existing observation/communication equipment [Activity 2.9] To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning observation/ communication equipment for budgeting by PAGASA [Activity 3.1] To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible problems of new RFFWCs [Activity 3.2] To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information transmission at the time of flooding, and to propose efficient procedures for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs

The following activities have been commenced in this period and will be continued in the next period: [Activity 1.4] To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS [Activity 2.5] To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data [Activity 3.3] To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS [Activity 3.4] To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs [Activity 3.5] To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. [Activity 4.1] To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data transmission plan [Activity 4.2] To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning water levels [Activity 5.1] To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD

1-3 Achievement of Output Since the project is still in an early phase of implementation, nothing has been achieved. The Related activities are being performed toward the achievement of the respective outputs.

1-4 Achievement of the Project Purpose Since the project is still in an early phase of implementation, nothing has been achieved. In order to evaluate the achievement level of the project purpose every six months hereafter, four objectively verifiable indicators and their target values were finalized in this period.

~~1-5 Changes of Risks and Actions for Mitigation No change.~~

~~2 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~1-6 Progress of Actions undertaken by JICA JICA HQ confirmed the availability of training center in Tokyo for May 2017.~~

1-7 Progress of Actions undertaken by Gov. of Philippines 1) PAGASA assigned 36 members of counterpart personnel. 2) PAGASA organized the 2nd and 3rd JCC in September 2016 and February 2017, respectively. 3) PAGASA completed the design of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC building in El Salvador. 4) PAGASA is selecting a contractor for installing JICS equipment to the Tagoloan River basin.

~~1-8 Progress of Environmental and Social Considerations (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~1-9 Progress of Considerations on Gender/Peace Building/Poverty Reduction (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

1-10 Other remarkable/considerable issues related/affect to the project (such as other JICA's projects, activities of counterparts, other donors, private sectors, NGOs etc.) Attention needs to be paid to the following issues: 1) The PAGASA Modernization Act can affect organizational structure of PAGASA. 2) Problematic observation devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin may affect the quality of hydro-meteorological data as well as data acquisition. 3) The delay of JICS Project may negatively affect project activities in the Tagoloan River basin.

2 Delay of Work Schedule and/or Problems (if any) 2-1 Detail (1) PAGASA Modernization Act Organizational transformation in accordance with the PAGASA Modernization Plan may affect project activities, particularly for ICT officers. (2) Problematic observation devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin Most of the monitoring devices installed in the Cagayan de Oro River basin by the Twin Phoenix project are not properly transmitting data to MPRSD. On the other hand, problems in the facilities installed by the NDMI project have been already settled. (3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin The monitoring devices procured by the JICS project in 2014 have not been installed in the Tagoloan River basin.

~~3 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

2-2 Cause (1) PAGASA Modernization Act The PAGASA Modernization Plan proposes that only HMTS (Hydrometeorological Telemetry Section) shift to a different service from HMD. (2) Problematic observation devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin The major causes of problems in the Twin Phoenix facilities are improper installation of water level sensors as well as unstable GUI in the server. (3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin The original TOR for establishing telemetered FFWSs were not appropriate. The TOR has been modified with a technical assistance of JICA Expert Team.

2-3 Action to be taken (1) PAGASA Modernization Act The situation of finalizing the Plan need to be monitored by PWG-A. (2) Problematic observation devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin Repair works on the Twin Phoenix facilities are being done by the contractor under the supervision of Mindanao PRSD. MPRSD needs to report to HMD upon completion of the works. (3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin Once a contractor has been selected, implementation need to be made as scheduled.

2-4 Roles of Responsible Persons/Organization (JICA, Gov. of Philippines, etc.) PAGASA is responsible for taking the above actions. JICA Expert Team will monitor the progress and discuss with JICA as needed.

~~3 Modification of the Project Implementation Plan 3-1 PO No modification.~~

~~4 Preparation of Gov. of Philippines toward after completion of the Project No particular action in this period. II. Project Monitoring Sheet I & II as Attached~~

~~4 PM Form3-2 Monitoring Sheet I~~

~~Project Monitoring Sheet I （Revision of Project Design Matrix）~~

Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version 2 Implementing Agency: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Dated February 7, 2017 Target Group: Staff of PAGASA Hydro-Meteorology Division (HMD) and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Period of Project: July 2016 – June 2019 (36 months) Project Site: PAGASA Headquarters and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Narrative Summary Objectively Verifiable Indicators Means of Verification Important Assumption Achievement Remarks Overall Goal 1. Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of all 18 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data RFFWCs are received at HMD. Monitoring 2. Quality management of hydrometeorological data of all 18 2. Record of Hydrometeorological Data Overall capacity of PAGASA on integral RFFWCs is conducted at HMD. Monitoring data management/ utilization for Flood 3. Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of all 18 3. Integrated Database Forecasting and Warning System RFFWCs are stored in the integrated database. (FFWS) is enhanced. 4. Flood forecasting and warning is conducted at all 18 4. Survey before Ex-post Evaluation RFFWCs.

Project Purpose 1. Not less than 30% of MTTR (Mean Time to Recover) is 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data ・ Necessary budget for phased reduced among Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the Monitoring development of RFFWCs is secured. existing 5 RFFWCs. 2. Not less than 80% of hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan 2. Integrated Database ・ Necessary budget for de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs are stored in operation/maintenance of the existing Capacity of PAGASA HMD and target the integrated database by applying a standard data format RFFWCs is secured. RFFWC on integral data management/ and quality management standards. utilization for FFWS is enhanced. 3. Flood warning water levels of Cagayan de Oro/ 3. Survey before the Project termination ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained Tagoloan RFFWC are established considering the flood by the Project do not transferred to other risk in locality. job. 4. Flood forecasting and warning is started at Cagayan de Oro/ 4. Survey before the Project termination Tagoloan RFFWC.

Outputs 1. Capacity on formulation of FFWS 1.1 Draft medium-term plan for enhancement of FFWS in 1-1 Project Report ・ Necessary budget for phased development Plan of PAGASA HMD is accordance with the draft roadmap is reviewed. development of RFFWCs is secured. enhanced. 2. Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on 2.1 A hydrometeorological database using the standard data 2-1 Interview of HMD ・ Necessary budget for operation/ quality management/ storage of the format is established and operated. maintenance of the existing RFFWCs hydro-meteorological data is enhanced. and renewal of equipment is secured. 2.2 Quality management standards are obeyed at HMD in 2-2 Interview of HMD ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained handling hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de by the Project do not transferred to other Oro/Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. job. 3. Organization/staffing and, 3.1 Not less than 2 number of RFFWCs are developed 3-1 Questionnaires to HMD and each ・ Security situation does not deteriorate equipment/facility of RFFWC are according to the draft development standards for staffing and RFFWC significantly. standardized according to the equipment/facilities. development levels of FFWS. 3.2 Not less than 2 number of RFFWCs obey guidelines for 3-2 Questionnaires to HMD and each RFFWC operations RFFWCs 3.3 Procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other 3-3 Questionnaires to HMD concerned organizations are agreed/adopted by concerned parties. 4. Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS 4.1 Flood warning water levels at observation stations of 4-1 Interview of HMD of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers are established by HMD. basins is enhanced. 4.2 Trainings on issuing flood warning are conducted at not 4-2 Interview of HMD less than 2 number of RFFWCs. 5. Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5.1 Hydrometeorological data of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5-1 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood RFFWC are transmitted to HMD periodically according to the RFFWC forecasting and warning is developed. guidelines. 5.2 Flood warning is issued according to the rules whenever 5-2 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan water level of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers reaches to RFFWC the warning level.

2-8 To check malfunction of the existing FFWS observation/communication equipment 3. Local Subcontract ・ River Cross Section Survey：1 lot 2-9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning existing FFWS observation/ communication ・ Discharge Measurement：1 lot equipment for budgeting by PAGASA 3-1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible problems of new RFFWCs 4. Training in Japan ・ 3-2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information transmission at the time of flooding Utilization of hydro-meteorological data on and to propose efficient procedures for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs flood and river managements: 2 times 3-3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 3-4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA’s internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs 3-5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 4-1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data transmission plan 4-2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC, and to establish flood warning water levels 4-3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins 4-4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data transmitted from RFFWC 5-1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD 5-2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically

Project Monitoring Sheet II (Revision of Plan of Operation) Version.2 Dated February 7, 2017 Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Monitoring Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Inputs Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡ ⅢⅣ

Activities Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Responsible Organization Issue & Achievements Sub-Activities Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣ Japan GOP Countermeasures Output 1: Capacity on formulation of FFWS development plan of PAGASA HMD is enhanced 1.1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ river basins, and to extract problems in FFWS Actual ■■ 1.2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■■■ rivers Actual ■■■■■ 1.3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■ deciding priority of phased developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers Actual ■ ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ 1.4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Actual ■■ 1.5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ incl. budget estimation Actual Output 2:Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on quality management/storage of the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced 2.1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation ○○◎○○ Plan ■ data of PAGASA Actual ■ 2.2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the ○○◎○○ Plan ■ existing FFWS/FFWSDO Actual ■ 2.3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ organizations Actual ■■ 2.4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ □□□□□□□ development level in the future, expandability and efficiency Actual ■■ 2.5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ data Actual ■■■ 2.6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input ○○◎○○ Plan ■■■■ the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format Actual 2.7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ hydrometeorological database Actual 2.8 To check malfunction of the existing observation/communication ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ equipment Actual ■■ 2.9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning observation/ ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ communication equipment for budgeting by PAGASA Actual ■■ Output 3: Organization/staffing and, equipment/facility of RFFWC are standarized according to the development levels of FFWS 3.1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible ◎○○○○○ Plan ■ problems of new RFFWCs Actual ■ 3.2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ transmission at the time of flooding, and to propose efficient procedures Actual ■■■ for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs 3.3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications Actual ■■ between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 3.4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Actual ■ 3.5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings Actual ■ with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Output 4: Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins is enhanced 4.1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and ○◎○○○○ Plan ■■■■■■ hydrometeorological data transmission plan Actual ■■■ 4.2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning Actual ■□□ water levels 4.3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan ○○◎○ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ de Oro and Tagoloan river basins Actual 4.4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ transmitted from RFFWC Actual Output 5: Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood forecasting and warning is developed 5.1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Actual ■□□ ○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ 5.2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Actual 5.3 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through Actual meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 5.4 To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing ○◎○○ ○ Plan ■■ observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD Actual Plan Duration / Phasing Actual

Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Monitoring Plan Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢ Ⅳ Monitoring Plan ■■■■■■■■ Joint Coordination Committee Actual ■■ ■ Plan ■ Set-up the Detailed Plan of Operation Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Submission of Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■ Plan Monitoring Mission from Japan Actual Plan Joint Monitoring Actual Plan Post Monitoring Actual Reports/Documents Plan ■ Work Plan Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■ Plan ■ Prgress report Actual Plan ■ Project Completion Report Actual Public Relations Plan ■■■■■■ PR Activities Actual ■ Plan ■■■ Project Brief Note Actual ■ Plan ■■ ■ Seminar Actual ■ PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary

~~TO CR of JICA PHILIPPINE OFFICE~~

~~PROJECT MONITORING SHEET~~

Project Title : Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version of the Sheet: Ver.2.5 （Term: July, 2016 - January, 2017） Name: Vicente B. MALANO, PhD MNSA Title: Project Director Name: Yoshihiro MOTOKI Title: Team Leader/ Flood Management/ Flood Forecasting and Warning Submission Date: February 7, 2017 I. Summary 1 Progress 1-1 Progress of Inputs (1) Expert Total input of JICA expert team up to January 2017 is 20.17 M/M as summarized in the table below. M/M Position Name Contract Performed Progress Team Leader/Flood Management/Flood Forecasting & Warning Yoshihiro MOTOKI 11.5 4.00 34.8% Deputy Team Leader/ River Management Hikaru SUGIMOTO 8.5 2.60 30.6% Integrated Data Management/ Database Minoru KURIKI 10.8 4.57 42.3% Monitoring System/ Hydrology Shirou HISHINUMA 8.0 2.50 31.3% Information & Communication/ Warning Issuance Yoshiyuki SHINJI 9.5 4.00 42.1% Institutional Strengthening / Human Resources Development Masaki ITO 7.5 2.50 33.3% Total 55.8 20.17 36.1% (2) Equipment Multifunction printer, inkjet printer, current meter and float have been procured. (3) Training in Japan The 1st training in Japan is scheduled in the second half of May 2017.

~~1 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~1-5 Changes of Risks and Actions for Mitigation No change.~~

~~2 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~1-6 Progress of Actions undertaken by JICA JICA HQ confirmed the availability of training center in Tokyo for May 2017.~~

1-7 Progress of Actions undertaken by Gov. of Philippines (1) PAGASA assigned 36 members of counterpart personnel. (2) PAGASA organized the 2nd and 3rd JCC in September 2016 and February 2017, respectively. (3) PAGASA completed the design of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC building in El Salvador. (4) PAGASA is selecting a contractor for installing JICS equipment to the Tagoloan River basin.

~~1-8 Progress of Environmental and Social Considerations (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~1-9 Progress of Considerations on Gender/Peace Building/Poverty Reduction (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

1-10 Other remarkable/considerable issues related/affect to the project (such as other JICA's projects, activities of counterparts, other donors, private sectors, NGOs etc.) Attention needs to be paid to the following issues: (1) The PAGASA Modernization Act can affect organizational structure of PAGASA. (2) Problematic observation devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin may affect the quality of hydro-meteorological data as well as data acquisition. (3) The delay of JICS Project may negatively affect project activities in the Tagoloan River basin.

1-11 Intermediate Evaluation (1) Relevance The framework of the Project coincides with the Country Assistance Policy for the Philippine of Japan (April 2012). Further, the output envisaged by the Project is appropriate in the light of PAGASA Modernization Plan (2017-19). The Project activities aim to strengthen FFW services in the 18 major river basins, which is one of major targets of the Project and is mainstream of the PAGASA Modernization Plan as well. (2) Effectiveness The basic approach for preparation of the Roadmap and establishment of standard data format, etc. are very effective in terms of capacity development of the Counterpart Personnel (Project Working Group members) through active participation to the Project activities and task allotment to be handled by them. (3) Efficiency Timing, quantity and quality of inputs are appropriate and all inputs are fully utilized to generate so far

~~3 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

intended Outputs. (4) Impact The Project has enhanced awareness in counterparts on the importance of data management for FFWSs in the targeted river basins of the Project. Therefore, impact on the overall goal of the Project is positive. (5) Sustainability The sustainability of the Project is expected to be assured in terms of political, organizational, financial and technical aspects. In particular, based on the review of the actual Project activities conducted by three PWGs, the Project can be sustained so far and Project Performance is quite satisfactory.

~~2-3 Action to be taken (1) PAGASA Modernization Act The situation of finalizing the Plan need to be monitored by PWG-A.~~

~~4 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

(2) Problematic observation devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin Repair works on the Twin Phoenix facilities are being done by the contractor under the supervision of Mindanao PRSD. MPRSD needs to report to HMD upon completion of the works. (3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin Once a contractor has been selected, implementation need to be made as scheduled.

~~3 Modification of the Project Implementation Plan 3-1 PO No modification.~~

~~4 Preparation of Gov. of Philippines toward after completion of the Project No particular action in this period. II. Project Monitoring Sheet I & II as Attached~~

~~5 PM Form3-2 Monitoring Sheet I~~

~~Project Monitoring Sheet I （Revision of Project Design Matrix）~~

Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version 2.5 Implementing Agency: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Dated February 14, 2017 Target Group: Staff of PAGASA Hydro-Meteorology Division (HMD) and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) after discussion at JICA Period of Project: July 2016 – June 2019 (36 months) Philippine Office Project Site: PAGASA Headquarters and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Narrative Summary Objectively Verifiable Indicators Means of Verification Important Assumption Achievement Remarks Overall Goal 1. Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of all 18 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data RFFWCs are received at HMD. Monitoring 2. Quality management of hydrometeorological data of all 18 2. Record of Hydrometeorological Data Overall capacity of PAGASA on integral RFFWCs is conducted at HMD. Monitoring data management/ utilization for Flood 3. Not less than X% of hydrometeorological data of all 18 3. Integrated Database Forecasting and Warning System RFFWCs are stored in the integrated database. (FFWS) is enhanced. 4. Flood forecasting and warning is conducted at all 18 4. Survey before Ex-post Evaluation RFFWCs.

Project Purpose 1. Not less than 30% of MTTR (Mean Time to Recover) is 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data ・ Necessary budget for phased reduced among Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the Monitoring development of RFFWCs is secured. existing 5 RFFWCs. 2. Not less than 80% of hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan 2. Integrated Database ・ Necessary budget for de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs are stored in operation/maintenance of the existing Capacity of PAGASA HMD and target the integrated database by applying a standard data format RFFWCs is secured. RFFWC on integral data management/ and quality management standards. utilization for FFWS is enhanced. 3. Flood warning water levels of Cagayan de Oro/ 3. Technical Reports before the Project ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained Tagoloan RFFWC are established considering the flood termination by the Project do not transferred to other risk in locality. job. 4. Flood forecasting and warning is operational at Cagayan de 4. Technical Reports before the Project Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC. termination

Outputs 1. Capacity on formulation of FFWS 1.1 Draft medium-term plan for enhancement of FFWS in 1-1 Project Report ・ Necessary budget for phased development Plan of PAGASA HMD is accordance with the draft roadmap is reviewed. development of RFFWCs is secured. enhanced. 2. Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on 2.1 A hydrometeorological database using the standard data 2-1 Interview of HMD ・ Necessary budget for operation/ quality management/ storage of the format is established and operated. maintenance of the existing RFFWCs hydro-meteorological data is enhanced. and renewal of equipment is secured. 2.2 Quality management standards are complied at HMD in 2-2 Interview of HMD ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained handling hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de by the Project do not transferred to other Oro/Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. job. 3. Organization/staffing and, 3.1 Not less than 2 number of RFFWCs are developed 3-1 Questionnaires to HMD and each ・ Security situation does not deteriorate equipment/facility of RFFWC are according to the draft development standards for staffing and RFFWC significantly. standardized according to the equipment/facilities. development levels of FFWS. 3.2 Not less than 2 number of RFFWCs comply with the 3-2 Questionnaires to HMD and each guidelines for RFFWC operations RFFWCs 3.3 Procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other 3-3 Questionnaires to HMD concerned organizations are agreed/adopted by LGUs (Cagayan de Oro City and Tagoloan Municipality). 4. Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS 4.1 Flood warning water levels at observation stations of 4-1 Interview of HMD of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers are established by HMD. basins is enhanced. 4.2 Trainings on issuing flood warning are conducted at not 4-2 Interview of HMD less than 2 number of RFFWCs. 5. Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5.1 Hydrometeorological data of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5-1 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood RFFWC are transmitted to HMD periodically according to the RFFWC forecasting and warning is developed. guidelines. 5.2 Flood warning is issued according to the rules whenever 5-2 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan water level of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers reaches to RFFWC the warning level.

~~TO CR of JICA PHILIPPINE OFFICE~~

~~PROJECT MONITORING SHEET~~

Project Title : Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version of the Sheet: Ver.3 （Term: January, 2017 - July, 2017） Name: Vicente B. MALANO, PhD MNSA Title: Project Director Name: Yoshihiro MOTOKI Title: Team Leader/ Flood Management/ Flood Forecasting and Warning Submission Date: July 27, 2017 I. Summary 1 Progress 1-1 Progress of Inputs (1) Expert The inputs of JICA expert team up to July 25, 2017 for this period and entire period are 7.63 and 27.80 M/M, respectively, as summarized in the table below. The inputs go on as planned so far.

Input M/M Position Name Performed Contract Progress This Period Entire Team Leader/Flood Management/Flood Forecasting & Warning Yoshihiro MOTOKI 11.5 1.47 5.47 48% Deputy Team Leader/ River Management Hikaru SUGIMOTO 8.5 1.33 3.93 46% Integrated Data Management/ Database Minoru KURIKI 10.8 1.70 6.27 58% Monitoring System/ Hydrology Shiro HISHINUMA 8.0 0.47 2.97 37% Information & Communication/ Warning Issuance Yoshiyuki SHINJI 9.5 1.27 5.27 55% Institutional Strengthening / Human Resources Development Masaki ITO 7.5 1.40 3.90 52% Total 55.8 7.63 27.80 50%

(2) Equipment No equipment was procured in this period. PAGASA has a purchase plan of similar equipment with its own budget. In order to avoid duplicative purchase, the details of equipment to be purchased by the project in terms of item and specification are under deliberation among PWG-B.

(3) Training in Japan The 1st training in Japan was conducted from May 14 to 27, 2017 in and around Tokyo. A total of five trainees selected by PAGASA HMD and concerned PRSD participated in the training.

1-2 Progress of Activities The following activities were performed in this period: [Activity 1.4] To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Progress: The draft development plan of FFWS in 18 individual major river basins, which are elements composed of the Roadmap, has been completed with prioritization for implementation.

~~1 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

[Activity 1.5] To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS incl. budget estimation Progress: The draft mid-term plan is under preparation with cost estimate. [Activity 2.5] To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data Progress: The draft Quality Management Standards have been prepared and are under deliberation by PWG-B members and hydrologists in PAGASA in detail. They will be elaborated for trial. [Activity 2.6] To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format. Progress: Real-time data integration procedures for existing FFW systems has been proposed and trial application has been implemented. [Activity 2.7] To apply the quality management standards to the integrated hydrometeorological database. Progress: Selected past data of existing FFW systems have been entered into the database equipped with the same software as the one to be purchased as the integrated hydrological data management system in 2018 (ref. 1.10 below). [Activity 3.3] To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS Progress: The draft Standards of Telemetry System have been prepared and is upgrading to apply to actual bidding procedure in the principal river basins. [Activity 3.4] To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Progress: The draft Guideline for RFFWC Operation is under preparation. [Activity 3.5] To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Progress: The draft Procedures of Flood Warning Dissemination is under preparation. [Activity 4.1] To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data transmission plan Progress: The draft Staff Development Plan for RFFWCs is under preparation in parallel with the draft Roadmap. [Activity 4.2] To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning water levels Progress: H-Q curves and draft flood warning water levels prepared in the activity 5.1 are checked by HMD through the activities of PWG-C. [Activity 5.1] To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Progress: Through the activities of PWG-C, H-Q curves have been preliminary fit at 6 selected sites based on the discharge measurement results. Flood warning water levels were tentatively set by geometric proportion of channel section at the target sites.

~~2 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

Besides, the performed activities are verified from the perspective of DAC criteria as follows: Efficiency: Timing, quantity and quality of activities are appropriate and all activity results are fully utilized to generate so far intended outputs.

1-3 Achievement of Output In order to evaluate the achievement level of the outputs every six months, 10 objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) have been established for the outputs 1 to 5. Although only one third of the total duration of the Project period has passed, some outputs are going to apply in trial operation aiming at further elaboration of those. The related activities performed in this period toward the achievement of the respective OVIs are briefly described as follows: OVI-1.1: Draft medium-term plan in accordance with the draft Roadmap is under preparation. OVI-2.1: Standard data format has been established, while database is being established. OVI-2.2: Three quality management standards have been drafted. OVI-3.1: Draft development standards for staffing and equipment/facilities is under preparation. OVI-3.2: Guideline for RFFWC operations is under preparation. OVI-3.3: Procedures of information transmission is under consideration. OVI-4.1: Draft warning water levels have been established. OVI-4.2: Related activities have not been commenced. OVI-5.1: Guideline for RFFWC operations is under preparation. OVI-5.2: Flood warning issuance rule has not been established. Besides, verification results from the perspective of DAC criteria are summarized as follows: 1) Effectiveness: The five outputs expected in the Project cover various issues to be solved in strengthening capacity of integrated data management and utilization for flood forecasting and warning (FFW) service in PAGASA HMD and target RFFWC. 2) Efficiency: Timing, quantity and quality of inputs are appropriate and all inputs are fully utilized to generate so far intended outputs.

1-4 Achievement of the Project Purpose In order to evaluate the achievement level of the project purpose every six months, four objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) and their target values were discussed in the 3rd JCC. One of them was excluded from OVIs because it is regarded rather as one of activities than as project purpose. Another one was finalized in this period. Eventually, three OVIs were agreed in the 4th JCC as below.

OVI-1. The average number of days required for restoring a trouble of a flood forecasting system shows a declining trend in the Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. OVI-2. At least 80% of hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs are stored in the integrated database by applying a standard data format and quality management standards. OVI-3. Flood forecasting and warning is operational at Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC.

~~3 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

The achievement levels in this period in terms of OVIs are summarized as follows: OVI-1: The initial values of the previous five periods for the Agno and Pampanga river basins were estimated as shown in the table below. These will serve as a baseline in evaluating whether the next value shows a declining trend. River Basin Jan-Jun 2015 Jul-Dec 2015 Jan-Jun 2016 Jul-Dec 2016 Jan-Jun 2017 Agno 19 days 13 days 13 days 22 days 54 days Pampanga 17 days 25 days 32 days 22 days 17 days OVI-2: No data is stored in the database so far because the draft quality management standards have not been finalized and the database is currently being established. OVI-3: FFW service is operational with existing tools and equipment but it remains deteriorated due to mal-function of existing monitoring systems. Besides, verification results from the perspective of DAC criteria are summarized as follows: 1) Relevance: The framework of the Project coincides with the Country Assistance Policy for the Philippine of Japan (April 2012). Further, the output envisaged by the Project is appropriate in the light of PAGASA Modernization Program (2017-2019). The Project activities aim to strengthen FFW services in the 18 major river basins, which is one of major targets of the Project and is mainstream of the PAGASA Modernization Program as well. 2) Effectiveness: The basic approach for preparation of the Roadmap and establishment of standard data format, etc. are very effective in terms of capacity development of the counterpart personnel (Project Working Group (PWG) members) through active participation to the Project activities and task allotment to be handled by them. 3) Impact: The Project has enhanced awareness in counterpart on the importance of data management for FFWSs in the targeted river basins of the Project. Therefore, impact on the overall goal of the Project is positive. 4) Sustainability: The sustainability of the Project is expected to be assured in terms of political, organizational, financial and technical aspects. In particular, based on the review of the actual Project activities conducted by three PWGs, the Project can be sustained so far and Project performance is quite satisfactory.

1-5 Changes of Risks and Actions for Mitigation The following issues 1) to 3) still remain pending since the previous period and the issues 4) and 5) were worsened or newly emerged in this period. The details are described in the section 2. 1) The PAGASA Modernization Act will deeply affect organizational structure of PAGASA. 2) Repeated problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin may affect the quality of hydro-meteorological data as well as data acquisition. 3) The delay of JICS Project may negatively affect Project activities in the Tagoloan River basin. 4) The repeated delay in constructing a RFFWC building in El Salvador may negatively affect Project activities. 5) Recent security situation in Mindanao may cause the delay of activities in the target river basins. Actions undertaken by the Project Team so far were situation monitoring, information gathering and facilitation through giving advices to the counter personnel.

~~4 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~1-6 Progress of Actions undertaken by JICA JICA provided security information for the above issue 5).~~

1-7 Progress of Actions undertaken by Gov. of Philippines The following actions were undertaken by Gov. of Philippines: 1) The PAGASA Modernization Program submitted by PAGASA through DOST is under evaluation by the Department Budget and Management (DBM). 2) PAGASA HMD and MPRSD instructed the contractors to solve the problems of monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin. 3) PAGASA is selecting a contractor for installing equipment to the Tagoloan River basin. 4) PAGASA is selecting a contractor for constructing the RFFWC building.

~~1-8 Progress of Environmental and Social Considerations (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~1-9 Progress of Considerations on Gender/Peace Building/Poverty Reduction (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

1-10 Other remarkable/considerable issues related/affect to the project (such as other JICA's projects, activities of counterparts, other donors, private sectors, NGOs etc.) 1) The JICA Preparatory Survey for the Project for Developing Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Cagayan de Oro River basin commenced in March 2017 and is scheduled to be completed in November 2017. Since the both projects are closely related, the both sides have been sharing necessary information. 2) PAGASA proposed two locally-funded projects for establishing an Integrated Hydrological Data Management Systems for Flood Forecasters (Software and Hardware) covering HMD and all the River Centers to be implemented in 2018. The projects have been approved by the DBM. 2 Delay of Work Schedule and/or Problems (if any) 2-1 Detail (1) PAGASA Modernization Act The PAGASA Modernization Act was approved and enacted on November 3, 2015 during the administration of the former President Benigno S. Aquino III. The PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP), which is duly contemplated to implement the Act covering the 3-year development program (2017-2019) of PAGASA, will affect entire operation of FFWS/ FFWSDO by HMD in terms of institution, budget, equipment and human resources development. The PMP is still pending for approval by the Department of Budget and Management though already 20 months passed after the enactment.

~~5 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

(3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin The monitoring devices procured by the JICS project in 2014 have not been installed in the Tagoloan River basin. Although the bidding procedure for the contract of installation works in the Tagoloan, Davao and Buayan-Malungon basins is on-going as of mid-July, installation in the Davao basin is scheduled first due to the recent security situation.

(4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC HMD reported in the Monitoring Sheet Ver.2 that the design of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC building was completed. However, necessity of some TOR modification of the building arose after that. As of July 2017, PAGASA is in the process of posting.

(5) Deteriorating security situation in Mindanao The security situation in Mindanao has been seriously deteriorating. Project activities in the target river basins, which are directly connected with envisaged Project outputs such as training of discharge measurement for PWG members, etc., are widely restricted.

~~2-2 Cause (1) PAGASA Modernization Act Capability of DPST/PAGASA for making smooth coordination with other agencies/ offices will be one of major concerns to facilitate the procedure.~~

(2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin 1) The major causes of problems in the Twin Phoenix facilities are improper installation of water level sensors, unstable GUI in the server, power supply of the stations, no available spare parts, etc. 2) The malfunction of the NDMI's FFAS GUI is caused by software problem.

(3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin The delay was caused by the modification of TOR as well as the repeated unsuccessful bidding/ contracting process. Besides, recent security situation will be also one of the reasons for further delay.

~~(5) Deteriorating security situation in Mindanao Fighting between the military and suspected Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Maute Group rebels in Marawi City have been continued.~~

~~6 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

2-3 Action to be taken (1) PAGASA Modernization Act HMD and FPMD (Financial, Planning and Management Division) need to facilitate the procedure with clarification on the argued points in the Task Force Group, which consists of NEDA, DBM, DOST and PAGASA, etc. The situation of finalizing the PMP need to be monitored by PWG-A.

(2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin 1) The Twin Phoenix water level sensors should be reinstalled properly after HMD FFWS (Section) provide feedback when the relocation of the sensors would commence. Then, MPRSD needs to report to HMD upon completion of the works. 2) HMD and the contractor are currently working on solving software problem of the NDMI's FFAS GUI.

(3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin Once a contractor has been selected, implementation need to be made as scheduled. HMD FFWS (Section) should ensure the efficient supervision of implementation.

(4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC Once a contractor has been selected, implementation need to be made as scheduled. The contracting process should be hastened by ETSD and closely monitored by HMD, while MPRSD needs to facilitate the implementation at a field level.

~~(5) Deteriorating security situation in Mindanao In parallel with collecting security information, project activities in terms of schedule and approach are to be reconsidered if the occasion arises.~~

~~4 Preparation of Gov. of Philippines toward after completion of the Project No particular action in this period. II. Project Monitoring Sheet I & II as Attached~~

~~7 PM Form3-2 Monitoring Sheet I~~

~~Project Monitoring Sheet I （Revision of Project Design Matrix） Red fonts show the changes from Ver.2.~~

Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version 3 Implementing Agency: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Dated July 27, 2017 Target Group: Staff of PAGASA Hydro-Meteorology Division (HMD) and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Period of Project: July 2016 – June 2019 (36 months) Project Site: PAGASA Headquarters and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Narrative Summary Objectively Verifiable Indicators Means of Verification Important Assumption Achievement Remarks Overall Goal 1. The average number of days required for restoring a 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data trouble of a flood forecasting system shows a declining Monitoring trend in all 18 RFFWCs. 2. Quality management of hydrometeorological data of all 18 2. Record of Hydrometeorological Data Overall capacity of PAGASA on integral RFFWCs is conducted at HMD in accordance with the Monitoring data management/ utilization for Flood quality management standards prepared by the Project. Forecasting and Warning System 3. At least 80% of hydrometeorological data of all 18 RFFWCs 3. Integrated Database (FFWS) is enhanced. are stored in the integrated database by applying a standard data format and quality management standards. 4. Flood forecasting and warning is operational at all 18 4. Technical Reports before Ex-post RFFWCs. Evaluation

Project Purpose 1. The average number of days required for restoring a 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data ・ Necessary budget for phased 1. Jan-Jul 2017 period OVIs were trouble of a flood forecasting system shows a declining Monitoring development of RFFWCs is Pampanga: 17 days finalized and trend in the Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing 5 secured. Agno: 54 days agreed in the RFFWCs. ・ Necessary budget for operation/ 4th JCC. Capacity of PAGASA HMD and target 2. At least 80% of hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de 2. Integrated Database maintenance of the existing 2. Data storage: 0% RFFWC on integral data management/ Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs are stored in the RFFWCs is secured. utilization for FFWS is enhanced. integrated database by applying a standard data format and ・ Counterpart personnel who are quality management standards. trained by the Project do not 3.Flood forecasting and warning is operational at Cagayan de 3. Technical Reports before the Project transferred to other job. 3. Still in the conventional way Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC. termination

Outputs 1. Capacity on formulation of FFWS 1.1 Draft roadmap and draft medium-term plan for 1-1 Project Report, draft mediun-term plan, ・ Necessary budget for phased 1.1: Draft medium-term plan is Although, development Plan of PAGASA HMD is enhancement of FFWS are reviewed and finalized. draft roadmap development of RFFWCs is under preparation. nothing has enhanced. secured. been 2. Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on 2.1 A hydrometeorological database using the standard data 2-1 Interview of HMD ・ Necessary budget for operation/ 2.1: Format has been prepared, completely quality management/ storage of the format is established and operated. maintenance of the existing while database is being achieved, the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced. RFFWCs and renewal of established. related 2.2 Quality management standards are complied at HMD in 2-2 Interview of HMD, quality management equipment is secured. 2.2: Three quality management activities are handling hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de standards ・ Counterpart personnel who are standards have been drafted. being Oro/Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. trained by the Project do not performed 3. Organization/staffing and, 3.1 At least 2 number of RFFWCs are developed according to 3-1 Questionnaires to HMD and each transferred to other job. 3.1: Draft development toward the equipment/facility of RFFWC are the draft development standards for staffing and RFFWC ・ Security situation does not standards is under preparation. achievement standardized according to the equipment/facilities. deteriorate significantly. of the development levels of FFWS. 3.2 At least 2 number of RFFWCs comply with the 3-2 Questionnaires to HMD and each 3.2: Guideline is under respective guidelines for RFFWC operations RFFWCs preparation. OVIs as 3.3 Procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other 3-3 Questionnaires to HMD, minutes of 3.3: Procedures is under scheduled. concerned organizations are agreed/adopted by LGUs meeting consideration. (Cagayan de Oro City and Tagoloan Municipality). 4. Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS 4.1 Flood warning water levels at observation stations of 4-1 Interview of HMD, warning water level 4.1: Draft warning water levels of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers are established by HMD. report have been established. basins is enhanced. 4.2 Trainings on issuing flood warning are conducted for at 4-2 Interview of HMD, activity report 4.2: Related activities have not least 2 number of RFFWCs. been commenced. 5. Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5.1 Hydrometeorological data of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5-1 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan 5.1: Guideline is under RFFWC on data management for flood RFFWC are transmitted to HMD periodically according to the RFFWC, database of HMD preparation. forecasting and warning is developed. guidelines. 5.2 Flood warning is issued according to the rules whenever 5-2 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan 5.2: Flood warning issuance water level of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers reaches to RFFWC, flood bulletins rule has not been established. the warning level.

Activities Inputs Important Assumption 1-1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major river basins, and to extract The Japanese Side The Philippine Side problems in FFWS 1. JICA Experts 1. Counterpart Personnel ・ Newly developed standards/manuals are 1-2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major rivers (1) Team Leader / Flood Control / Flood (1) Project Manager approved/ adopted by concerned Forecasting & Warning (2) Hydrologist organizations. 1-3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for deciding priority of phased (2) Deputy Team Leader / River Management (3) Monitoring/ Communications ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained by developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers (3) Integral Data Management/Database Staff the Project do not transferred to other job. 1-4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS (4) Monitoring System/ Runoff Analysis (4) ICT Staff ・ Security situation does not deteriorate (5) Information & Communication/ Warning (5) Support Staff significantly. 1-5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS incl. budget estimation Notification ・ Monitoring equipment for the target rivers (6) Institutional Strengthening/ Human 2. Office space for the Project planed by JICS and NDMI is installed. 2-1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation data of PAGASA Resource Development including telephone, facsimile, internet services and other office 2-2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the existing FFWS/FFWSDO 2. Equipment essentials (in PAGASA ・ Desktop PC: 3 sets Headquarters and River Center) Pre-Conditions 2-3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned organizations ・ Data server: 2 sets ・ Technical staff are assigned at target 2-4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of development level in the future, ・ Large Monitor (40 inch): 1 set 3. Expense necessary for RFFWC. expandability and efficiency ・ Multifunction printer: 1 set execution of the Project (customs ・ Inkjet printer: 1 set duty for equipment, 2-5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data ・ Database software: 15 licenses remuneration/travel cost/ per diem 2-6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input the hydrometeorological data ・ GIS software: 1 set etc. for the counterpart Issues with the standard data format ・ Program software: 1 set 1) The PAGASA Modernization Act 2-7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated hydrometeorological database ・ Current meter / Float: 1 set /1 lot 2) Repeated problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River 2-8 To check malfunction of the existing FFWS observation/communication equipment 3. Local Subcontract basin ・ River Cross Section Survey：1 lot 3) The delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan 2-9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning existing FFWS observation/ communication ・ Discharge Measurement：1 lot River basin equipment for budgeting by PAGASA 4) The repeated delay in constructing a 3-1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible problems of new RFFWCs 4. Training in Japan RFFWC building in El Salvador ・ 3-2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information transmission at the time of flooding Utilization of hydro-meteorological data on 5) Recent security situation in Mindanao and to propose efficient procedures for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs flood and river managements: 2 times Actions to be Taken 3-3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission 1) HMD and FPMD need to facilitate the from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications procedure. between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 2) All technical problems should be solved 3-4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA’s internal monitoring on properly. compliance by each RFFWCs 3) Once a contractor has been selected, 3-5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 implementation need to be made as river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through scheduled. meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 4) Once a contractor has been selected, 4-1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data implementation need to be made as transmission plan scheduled. 4-2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5) In parallel with collecting security RFFWC, and to establish flood warning water levels information, project activities in terms of 4-3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river schedule and approach are to be reconsidered basins if the occasion arises. 4-4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data transmitted from RFFWC 5-1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD 5-2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically

Project Monitoring Sheet II (Revision of Plan of Operation) Red fonts show the changes from Ver.2. Version 3 Dated July 27, 2017 Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Monitoring Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Inputs Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡ ⅢⅣ

Expert 78910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 123456 Plan Yoshihiro MOTOKI: Team Leader / Flood Management / Flood Forecasting and Warning Actual Plan Hikaru SUGIMOTO: Deputy Team Leader / River Management Actual Plan Minoru KURIKI: Integrated Data Management / Database Actual Plan Shiro HISHINUMA: Monitoring System / Hydrology Actual Plan Yoshiyuki SHINJI: Information & Communication / Warning Issuance Actual Plan Masaki ITO: Institutional Strengthening / Human Resources Development Actual Equipment 1) Some equipment 1) Equipment for Plan ■ are planned to be RFFWC will be Desktop Computers Actual installed in the installed in the MPRSD Plan ■ Cagayan de Oro/ office temporarily. Data Server Actual Tagoloan RFFWC. Plan ■ However the 2) In order to avoid Large Monitor Actual construction of RFFWC duplicative purchase, Plan ■ is delayed. the details of Multifunction machine (Printer/Photocopy) Actual ■ equipment to be Plan ■ 2) PAGASA has a purchased by the Color Inkjet Printer Actual ■ purchase plan of project are under Plan ■ similar equipment with deliberation. Database Software Actual its own budget. Plan ■ GIS Software Actual Plan ■ Program Software Actual Plan ■ Current Meter / Float Actual ■ Training in Japan Plan ■■ Training in Japan Actual ■ In-country/Third country Training Plan Actual

Activities Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Responsible Organization Issue & Achievements Sub-Activities Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣ Japan GOP Countermeasures Output 1: Capacity on formulation of FFWS development plan of PAGASA HMD is enhanced 1.1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ Completed river basins, and to extract problems in FFWS Actual ■■ 1.2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■■■ Completed rivers Actual ■■■■■ 1.3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■ Completed deciding priority of phased developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers Actual ■ ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ 1.4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Draft prepared Actual ■■■□□□□■ 1.5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ On-going incl. budget estimation Actual ■ Output 2:Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on quality management/storage of the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced 2.1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation ○○◎○○ Plan ■ Completed data of PAGASA Actual ■ 2.2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the ○○◎○○ Plan ■ Completed existing FFWS/FFWSDO Actual ■ 2.3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ Completed organizations Actual ■■ 2.4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ □□□□□□□ Completed development level in the future, expandability and efficiency Actual ■■ 2.5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ Draft prepared data Actual ■■■□ 2.6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input ○○◎○○ Plan ■■■■ On-going the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format Actual ■ 2.7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ On-going hydrometeorological database Actual ■ 2.8 To check malfunction of the existing observation/communication ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ Completed equipment Actual ■■ 2.9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning observation/ ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ Completed communication equipment for budgeting by PAGASA Actual ■■ Output 3: Organization/staffing and, equipment/facility of RFFWC are standarized according to the development levels of FFWS 3.1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible ◎○○○○○ Plan ■ Completed problems of new RFFWCs Actual ■ □ 3.2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ transmission at the time of flooding, and to propose efficient procedures Completed Actual ■■■ for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs 3.3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications On-going Actual ■■■■■ between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 3.4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ On-going PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Actual ■■■ 3.5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, On-going and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings Actual ■■■ with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Output 4: Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins is enhanced 4.1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and ○◎○○○○ Plan ■■■■■■ On-going hydrometeorological data transmission plan Actual ■■■■□ ■ 4.2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning On-going Actual ■□□□□□□□■ water levels 4.3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan ○○◎○ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ Not yet started de Oro and Tagoloan river basins Actual 4.4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ Not yet started transmitted from RFFWC Actual Output 5: Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood forecasting and warning is developed 5.1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ On-going Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Actual ■□□□□□□□■ ○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ 5.2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Not yet started Actual 5.3 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Not yet started basins, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through Actual meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 5.4 To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing ○◎○○ ○ Plan ■■ Not yet started observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD Actual Plan Duration / Phasing Actual

Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Monitoring Plan Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢ Ⅳ Monitoring Plan ■■■■■■■■ Joint Coordination Committee Actual ■■■■ Plan ■ Set-up the Detailed Plan of Operation Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Submission of Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■■ Plan Monitoring Mission from Japan Actual Plan Joint Monitoring Actual Plan Post Monitoring Actual Reports/Documents Plan ■ Work Plan Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■■ Plan ■ Prgress report Actual Plan ■ Project Completion Report Actual Public Relations Plan ■■■■■■ PR Activities Actual ■■ Plan ■■■ Project Brief Note Actual ■ Plan ■■ ■ Seminar Actual ■ PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary

~~TO CR of JICA PHILIPPINE OFFICE~~

~~PROJECT MONITORING SHEET~~

Project Title : Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version of the Sheet: Ver.4 （Term: July, 2017 - January, 2018） Name: Vicente B. MALANO, PhD MNSA Title: Project Director Name: Yoshihiro MOTOKI Title: Team Leader/ Flood Management/ Flood Forecasting and Warning Submission Date: January 30, 2018 I. Summary 1 Progress 1-1 Progress of Inputs (1) Expert The inputs of JICA expert team up to January 25, 2018 for this period and entire period are 10.17 and 37.97 M/M, respectively, as summarized in the table below. The inputs go on as planned so far.

Input M/M Position Name Performed Contract Progress This Period Entire Team Leader/Flood Management/Flood Forecasting & Warning Yoshihiro MOTOKI 11.5 2.10 7.57 66% Deputy Team Leader/ River Management Hikaru SUGIMOTO 8.5 1.27 5.20 61% Integrated Data Management/ Database Minoru KURIKI 10.8 1.73 8.00 74% Monitoring System/ Hydrology Shiro HISHINUMA 8.0 2.33 5.30 66% Information & Communication/ Warning Issuance Yoshiyuki SHINJI 9.5 1.33 6.60 69% Institutional Strengthening / Human Resources Development Masaki ITO 7.5 1.40 5.30 71% Total 55.8 10.17 37.97 68%

(2) Equipment PAGASA has a purchase plan of similar equipment with its own budget. In order to avoid duplicative purchase, PAGASA and JICA agreed to purchase a FTP server, a desktop computer and two decoders instead of two data servers. And they were procured in this period.

~~(3) Training in Japan The 1st counterpart training in Japan was conducted in May 2017, the last period. The 2nd training is scheduled in the next period.~~

1-2 Progress of Activities Activities 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1 and 3.2 have been completed by the last period. The following activities were performed in this period: [Activity 1.4] To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Progress: The draft Roadmap, which had been prepared in the last period, was improved in this period particularly in terms of implementation schedule considering the

~~1 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

prioritization between the river basins. [Activity 1.5] To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS incl. budget estimation Progress: The draft mid-term plan is under preparation. Cost estimates in accordance with the action plans for the high-prioritized 7 river basins (Group A) were completed in this period except annual disbursement schedule to be examined further. [Activity 2.5] To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data Progress: The draft Quality Management Standards have been prepared and are under trial. [Activity 2.6] To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format. Progress: The decision was made that the integrated hydrometeorological database was to be established utilizing the commercially available software, the licenses of which PAGASA owned. Real-time data integration for the Pampanga and Agno FFW systems has started for trial basis. Integration procedures for other existing FFW systems have been proposed for implementation. [Activity 2.7] To apply the quality management standards to the integrated hydrometeorological database. Progress: Selected past data and real time data of the Pampanga and Agno FFW systems have been entered into the integrated hydrological data management system with the quality management standards being applied. [Activity 3.3] To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS Progress: The Standards of Telemetry System has been updated and will be tentatively applied to actual planning and designing procedures for the telemetry systems in the principal river basins. [Activity 3.4] To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Progress: The draft Guidelines for RFFWC Operations was prepared and compiled as the 1st draft in this period. Trial application and monitoring will commence in February 2018. [Activity 3.5] To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Progress: The Procedures of Flood Warning Dissemination has been drafted. The document will be checked in details and will be elaborated more in case necessary. [Activity 4.1] To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data transmission plan Progress: The draft plans for staffing, monitoring equipment and data transmission in the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins were prepared in this period. They will be further elaborated so as to harmonize with the draft Roadmap.

~~2 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

[Activity 4.2] To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning water levels Progress: Discharge measurement results in this period, which include the results during TC Vinta on Dec 22, 2017, were reviewed through the activities of PWG-C. [Activity 5.1] To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Progress: Discharge measurement results in this period, which include the results during TC Vinta on Dec 22, 2017, were reviewed through the activities of PWG-C. Besides, the performed activities are verified from the perspective of DAC criteria as follows: Efficiency: Timing, quantity and quality of activities are appropriate and all activity results are fully utilized to generate so far intended outputs.

1-3 Achievement of Output In order to evaluate the achievement level of the outputs every six months, 10 objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) have been established for the outputs 1 to 5. Since half of the Project period have passed, some outputs are being applied to trial operation aiming at further elaboration of those. The achievement status of the project outputs by the end of this period are briefly described as follows: OVI-1.1: Draft roadmap and draft medium-term plan have been prepared and are under review. OVI-2.1: Standard data format has been established, while database is being established. OVI-2.2: Three quality management standards have been prepared and are under trial. OVI-3.1: Draft development standards only for equipment/ facilities have been drafted. OVI-3.2: Draft guidelines have been prepared and are under review. OVI-3.3: General procedures have been drafted and will be customized to the target areas. OVI-4.1: Draft warning water levels have been established. OVI-4.2: Related activities have not been commenced. OVI-5.1: Data have not been transmitted to HMD periodically according to the guidelines. OVI-5.2: Flood warning issuance rule has not been established. Besides, verification results from the perspective of DAC criteria are summarized as follows: 1) Effectiveness: The five outputs expected in the Project cover various issues to be solved in strengthening capacity of integrated data management and utilization for flood forecasting and warning (FFW) service in PAGASA HMD and target RFFWC. 2) Efficiency: Timing, quantity and quality of inputs are appropriate and all inputs are fully utilized to generate so far intended outputs.

1-4 Achievement of the Project Purpose In order to evaluate the achievement level of the project purpose every six months, three objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) and their target values were eventually agreed in the 4th JCC as below.

~~3 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~quality management standards. OVI-3. Flood forecasting and warning is operational at Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC.~~

The achievement levels in this period in terms of OVIs are summarized as follows: OVI-1: The average values of the past two periods for the Pampanga and Agno RFFWCs were estimated at 18.5 days and 21.5 days, respectively. These serve as a baseline in evaluating whether values in this period shows a declining trend. Compared with these values, Pampanga RFFWC of 10 days shows a declining trend, while Agno RFFWC of 210 days shows an increasing trend. The reason why the Agno’s value extremely increased in this period is that malfunctions occurred at all the stations in mid-December 2017 were carried over to the next period. RFFWC The Past 2 Periods This Period Trend Jul-Dec 2016 Jan-Jun 2017 Average Jul-Dec 2017 Pampanga 22 days 15 days 18.5 days 10 days Declining Agno 22 days 21 days 21.5 days 210 days Increasing OVI-2: Data storage is still 0% because the database is being established. However, since methodology and target existing systems were determined for data integration, prospect on achievement is relatively high. OVI-3: FFW service is operational but still in the conventional way. However, the drafted Operation Guidelines on RFFWC will provide appropriately guide for enhanced operation. Besides, verification results from the perspective of DAC criteria are summarized as follows: 1) Relevance: The framework of the Project coincides with the Country Assistance Policy for the Philippine of Japan (April 2012). Further, the output envisaged by the Project is appropriate in the light of PAGASA Modernization Program (2017-2019). The Project activities aim to strengthen FFW services in the 18 major river basins, which is one of major targets of the Project and is mainstream of the PAGASA Modernization Program as well. 2) Effectiveness: The basic approach for preparation of the Roadmap and establishment of standard data format, etc. are very effective in terms of capacity development of the counterpart personnel (Project Working Group (PWG) members) through active participation to the Project activities and task allotment to be handled by them. 3) Impact: The Project has enhanced awareness in counterpart on the importance of data management for FFWSs in the targeted river basins of the Project. Therefore, impact on the overall goal of the Project is positive. 4) Sustainability: The sustainability of the Project is expected to be assured in terms of political, organizational, financial and technical aspects. In particular, based on the review of the actual Project activities conducted by three PWGs, the Project can be sustained so far and Project performance is quite satisfactory. However, further enhancement of the Project activities is required with encouraging PWG members for more proactive participation of them.

1-5 Changes of Risks and Actions for Mitigation Although some of the following issues were improved in this period, they have not been completely solved yet. The details are described in the section 2.

~~4 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

1) The PAGASA Modernization Act will deeply affect organizational structure of PAGASA. 2) Repeated problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin may affect the quality of hydro-meteorological data as well as data acquisition. 3) The delay of JICS Project may negatively affect Project activities in the Tagoloan River basin. 4) The repeated delay in constructing a RFFWC building in El Salvador may negatively affect Project activities. 5) Recent security situation in Mindanao may cause the delay of activities in the target river basins. Actions undertaken by the Project Team so far were situation monitoring, information gathering and facilitation through giving advices to the counterpart personnel.

1-6 Progress of Actions undertaken by JICA JICA Philippines Office issued an official letter requesting indicative timelines for improving the situations of the above issues 1) to 4) to PAGASA dated December 5, 2017. In response to that, PAGASA replied to JICA Philippines Office on December 13, 2017.

1-7 Progress of Actions undertaken by Gov. of Philippines The following actions were undertaken by Gov. of Philippines: 1) The PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP) submitted by PAGASA was already reviewed by NEDA and DOST and is still waiting for the evaluation of the Department of Budget and Management (DBM). 2) PAGASA HMD and MPRSD instructed the contractors to solve the problems of monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin. 3) PAGASA has issued the Notice to Proceed (NTP) to the winning bidder for installing equipment to the Tagoloan River basin. 4) PAGASA undertook bid opening for selecting a contractor for constructing the RFFWC building.

~~1-8 Progress of Environmental and Social Considerations (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~1-9 Progress of Considerations on Gender/Peace Building/Poverty Reduction (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~5 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

Management Systems for Flood Forecasters (Software and Hardware) covering HMD and all the RFFWCs to be implemented in 2018. Considering this, the activity of an Integrated Hydrometeorological Database establishment needed to be redesigned in such a way that the mechanism of converting existing FFWS data into the format that can be dealt with by the software in real time shall be established. While the above projects were not implemented in 2018, the redesigned activity would be implemented using the software licenses that PAGASA had precedently acquired. 2 Delay of Work Schedule and/or Problems (if any) 2-1 Detail (1) PAGASA Modernization Act The PAGASA Modernization Act was approved and enacted on November 3, 2015 during the administration of the former President Benigno S. Aquino III. The PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP), which is duly contemplated to implement the Act covering the 3-year development program (2017-2019) of PAGASA, will affect entire operation of FFWS/ FFWSDO by HMD in terms of institution, budget, equipment and human resources development. Approval of the Implementation Rules and Regulation (IRR), which was initially submitted in February 2016, was only issued in December 2017by DOST and NEDA. The Final approval of the PMP will be subject to approval of the president.

(2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin MPRSD has been facing problems in the monitoring devices and/or systems installed by two projects, namely 1) Twin Phoenix and 2) NDMI. The details of respective projects are as follows: 1) As of mid-January 2018, four Twin Phoenix monitoring stations (Mambuaya, Dagumbaan, Tikalaan and Basak) are not properly transmitting data to MPRSD. 2) As of mid-January 2018, the real-time data of NDMI stations cannot be viewed both at MPRSD and at Cagayan de Oro CDRRMD due to malfunction of the NDMI's FFAS (Flash Flood Alert System) GUI.

(3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin The monitoring devices procured by the JICS project in 2014 have not been installed in the Tagoloan River basin. A contractor for installing the devices in the Tagoloan, Davao and Buayan-Malungon basins was selected after the repeated unsuccessful bidding/ contracting process. The Notice to Proceed (NTP) was already served to the winning bidder (Massive Integrated Technologies Solutions, Inc. and Toconet Korea Co., Ltd) on December 1, 2017. Installation in the Davao basin is scheduled first due to the recent security situation (Japanese expert for field training will be dispatched to Davao).

(4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC The opening of bids was already undertaken on December 18, 2017. The issue is currently in the hand of BAC. The contact is expected be signed by the end of January 2018.

(5) Deteriorating security situation in Mindanao The security situation in Mindanao has been seriously deteriorating. Project activities in the target river basins, which are directly connected with envisaged Project activities such as training of discharge measurement for PWG members, etc., are widely restricted.

~~6 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~2-2 Cause (1) PAGASA Modernization Act Capability of DPST/PAGASA for making smooth coordination with other agencies/ offices will be one of major concerns to facilitate the procedure.~~

(3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin The delay was caused by the modification of TOR as well as the repeated unsuccessful bidding/ contracting process. Besides, recent deterioration of security situation will be also one of the reasons for further delay.

~~(5) Deteriorating security situation in Mindanao Fighting between the military and suspected Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Maute Group rebels in Marawi City have been continued.~~

2-3 Action to be taken (1) PAGASA Modernization Act The PMP was already reviewed by NEDA and DOST and is still waiting for the evaluation of DBM. The requirement of DBM is for PAGASA to submit the Organizational Structure and Staffing pattern (OSSP). The preparation of the OSSP is being undertaken by the respective Division Heads and will be collated by the Human Resources Management Section (HRMS) and reviewed by the Deputy Administrator for Administration and Engineering Services. HMD and FPMD (Financial, Planning and Management Division) need to facilitate the procedure with clarification on the argued points in the Task Force Group, which consists of NEDA, DBM, DOST and PAGASA, etc. The situation of finalizing the PMP need to be monitored by PWG-A.

(3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin Expected timeline for the delivery period (delivery, installation, testing, integration, commissioning and training) is 240 calendar days upon receipt of NTP. HMD FFWS (Section) should ensure the efficient supervision of implementation.

~~7 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

(4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC The expected completion of the building is in June 2018. Once the bidding process is finalized, the constructor should build it within 150 days according to the contract. The contracting process should be hastened by ETSD and closely monitored by HMD, while MPRSD needs to facilitate the implementation at a field level.

~~4 Preparation of Gov. of Philippines toward after completion of the Project No particular action in this period. II. Project Monitoring Sheet I & II as Attached~~

~~8 PM Form3-2 Monitoring Sheet I~~

~~Project Monitoring Sheet I （Revision of Project Design Matrix） Red fonts show the changes from Ver.3.~~

Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version 4 Implementing Agency: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Dated January 30, 2018 Target Group: Staff of PAGASA Hydro-Meteorology Division (HMD) and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Period of Project: July 2016 – June 2019 (36 months) Project Site: PAGASA Headquarters and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Narrative Summary Objectively Verifiable Indicators Means of Verification Important Assumption Achievement Remarks Overall Goal 1. The average number of days required for restoring a trouble 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data Mid-term of a flood forecasting system shows a declining trend in all 18 Monitoring review team RFFWCs. recommended 2. Quality management of hydrometeorological data of all 18 2. Record of Hydrometeorological Data in the 5th JCC Overall capacity of PAGASA on integral RFFWCs is conducted at HMD in accordance with the quality Monitoring that CPs and data management/ utilization for Flood management standards prepared by the Project. JICA Experts review the Forecasting and Warning System 3. At least 80% of hydrometeorological data of all 18 RFFWCs 3. Integrated Database necessity of (FFWS) is enhanced. are stored in the integrated database by applying a standard modifying the data format and quality management standards. indicator of the 4. Flood forecasting and warning is operational at all 18 4. Technical Reports before Ex-post Overall Goal RFFWCs. Evaluation before the Project ends. Project Purpose 1. The average number of days required for restoring a trouble 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data ・ Necessary budget for phased 1. Jul-Dec 2017 period OVIs were of a flood forecasting system shows a declining trend in the Monitoring development of RFFWCs is Pampanga: 10 days (declining) finalized and Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. secured. Agno: 210 days (increasing) agreed in the ・ Necessary budget for operation/ 4th JCC. Capacity of PAGASA HMD and target 2. At least 80% of hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de 2. Integrated Databasemaintenance of the existing 2. Data storage: 0% RFFWC on integral data management/ Oro/ Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs are stored in the RFFWCs is secured. utilization for FFWS is enhanced. integrated database by applying a standard data format and ・ Counterpart personnel who are quality management standards. trained by the Project do not 3.Flood forecasting and warning is operational at Cagayan de 3. Technical Reports before the Project transferred to other job. 3. Still in the conventional way Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC. termination

Outputs 1. Capacity on formulation of FFWS 1.1 Draft roadmap and draft medium-term plan for 1-1 Project Report, draft mediun-term plan, ・ Necessary budget for phased 1.1: Draft medium-term plan is Although, development Plan of PAGASA HMD is enhancement of FFWS are reviewed and finalized. draft roadmap development of RFFWCs is under preparation. nothing has enhanced. secured. been 2. Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on 2.1 A hydrometeorological database using the standard data 2-1 Interview of HMD・ Necessary budget for operation/ 2.1: Format has been prepared, completely quality management/ storage of the format is established and operated. maintenance of the existing while database is being achieved, the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced. RFFWCs and renewal of established. related 2.2 Quality management standards are complied at HMD in 2-2 Interview of HMD, quality management equipment is secured. 2.2: The draft Quality Manage- activities are handling hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de standards ・ Counterpart personnel who are ment Standards have been being Oro/Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. trained by the Project do not prepared and are under trial. performed 3. Organization/staffing and, 3.1 At least 2 number of RFFWCs are developed according to 3-1 Questionnaires to HMD and each transferred to other job. 3.1: Draft development toward the equipment/facility of RFFWC are the draft development standards for staffing and RFFWC ・ Security situation does not standards only for equipment/ achievement standardized according to the equipment/facilities. deteriorate significantly. facilities have been drafted. of the development levels of FFWS. 3.2 At least 2 number of RFFWCs comply with the guidelines 3-2 Questionnaires to HMD and each 3.2: Draft guidelines have been respective for RFFWC operations RFFWCs prepared and are under review. OVIs as 3.3 Procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other 3-3 Questionnaires to HMD, minutes of 3.3: General procedures have scheduled. concerned organizations are agreed/adopted by LGUs meeting been drafted and will be (Cagayan de Oro City and Tagoloan Municipality). customized to the target areas. 4. Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS 4.1 Flood warning water levels at observation stations of 4-1 Interview of HMD, warning water level 4.1: Draft warning water levels of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers are established by HMD. report have been established. basins is enhanced. 4.2 Trainings on issuing flood warning are conducted for at 4-2 Interview of HMD, activity report 4.2: Related activities have not least 2 number of RFFWCs. been commenced. 5. Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5.1 Hydrometeorological data of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5-1 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan 5.1: Data have not been RFFWC on data management for flood RFFWC are transmitted to HMD periodically according to the RFFWC, database of HMD transmitted to HMD periodically forecasting and warning is developed. guidelines. according to the guidelines. 5.2 Flood warning is issued according to the rules whenever 5-2 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan 5.2: Flood warning issuance water level of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers reaches to RFFWC, flood bulletins rule has not been established. the warning level.

Activities Inputs Important Assumption 1-1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major river basins, and to extract The Japanese Side The Philippine Side problems in FFWS 1. JICA Experts 1. Counterpart Personnel ・ Newly developed standards/manuals are 1-2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major rivers (1) Team Leader / Flood Control / Flood (1) Project Manager approved/ adopted by concerned Forecasting & Warning (2) Hydrologist organizations. 1-3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for deciding priority of phased (2) Deputy Team Leader / River Management (3) Monitoring/ Communications ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained by developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers (3) Integral Data Management/Database Staff the Project do not transferred to other job. 1-4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS (4) Monitoring System/ Runoff Analysis (4) ICT Staff ・ Security situation does not deteriorate (5) Information & Communication/ Warning (5) Support Staff significantly. 1-5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS incl. budget estimation Notification ・ Monitoring equipment for the target rivers (6) Institutional Strengthening/ Human 2. Office space for the Project planed by JICS and NDMI is installed. 2-1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation data of PAGASA Resource Development including telephone, facsimile, internet services and other office 2-2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the existing FFWS/FFWSDO 2. Equipment essentials (in PAGASA ・ Desktop PC: 4 sets Headquarters and River Center) Pre-Conditions 2-3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned organizations ・ FTP server: 1 sets ・ Technical staff are assigned at target 2-4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of development level in the future, ・ Decoder: 2 sets 3. Expense necessary for RFFWC. expandability and efficiency ・ Large Monitor (40 inch): 1 set execution of the Project (customs ・ Multifunction printer: 1 set duty for equipment, 2-5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data ・ Inkjet printer: 1 set remuneration/travel cost/ per diem 2-6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input the hydrometeorological data ・ Database software: 15 licenses etc. for the counterpart Issues with the standard data format ・ GIS software: 1 set 1) The PAGASA Modernization Act 2-7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated hydrometeorological database ・ Program software: 1 set 2) Repeated problems with monitoring devices ・ Current meter / Float: 1 set /1 lot and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River 2-8 To check malfunction of the existing FFWS observation/communication equipment basin 3. Local Subcontract 3) The delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan 2-9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning existing FFWS observation/ communication ・ River Cross Section Survey：1 lot River basin equipment for budgeting by PAGASA ・ Discharge Measurement：1 lot 4) Delay in constructing a RFFWC building in 3-1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible problems of new RFFWCs El Salvador 3-2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information transmission at the time of flooding 4. Training in Japan 5) Recent security situation in Mindanao ・ and to propose efficient procedures for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs Utilization of hydro-meteorological data on flood and river managements: 2 times Actions to be Taken 3-3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission 1) HMD and FPMD need to facilitate the from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications procedure. between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 2) All technical problems should be solved 3-4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA’s internal monitoring on properly. compliance by each RFFWCs 3) Expected timeline for the delivery period is 3-5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 240 calendar days upon receipt of NTP. HMD river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through FFWS (Section) should ensure the efficient meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. supervision of implementation. 4-1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data 4) Expected timeline for the completion of the transmission plan building is 150 days. The contracting process 4-2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan should be hastened by ETSD and closely RFFWC, and to establish flood warning water levels monitored by HMD, while MPRSD needs to 4-3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river facilitate the implementation at a field level. basins 5) In parallel with collecting security 4-4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data transmitted from RFFWC information, project activities in terms of schedule and approach are to be reconsidered 5-1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to if the occasion arises. propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD 5-2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically

Project Monitoring Sheet II (Revision of Plan of Operation) Red fonts show the changes from Ver.3. Version 4 Dated January 26, 2018 Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Monitoring Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Inputs Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡ ⅢⅣ

Expert 78910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 123456 Plan Yoshihiro MOTOKI: Team Leader / Flood Management / Flood Forecasting and Warning Actual Plan Hikaru SUGIMOTO: Deputy Team Leader / River Management Actual Plan Minoru KURIKI: Integrated Data Management / Database Actual Plan Shiro HISHINUMA: Monitoring System / Hydrology Actual Plan Yoshiyuki SHINJI: Information & Communication / Warning Issuance Actual Plan Masaki ITO: Institutional Strengthening / Human Resources Development Actual Equipment PAGASA has a purchase plan of Some equipment are Equipment for RFFWC Plan ■ similar equipment with its own planned to be installed will be installed in the Desktop Computers Actual budget. In order to avoid duplicative in the Cagayan de Oro/ MPRSD office Plan ■ purchase, PAGASA and JICA agreed Tagoloan RFFWC. temporarily. Data Server Actual ■ to purchase a FTP server, a desktop However the Plan ■ computer and two decoders instead construction of RFFWC Large Monitor Actual of two data servers. is delayed. Plan ■ Multifunction machine (Printer/Photocopy) Actual ■ Plan ■ Color Inkjet Printer Actual ■ Plan ■ Database Software Actual Plan ■ GIS Software Actual Plan ■ Program Software Actual Plan ■ Current Meter / Float Actual ■ Training in Japan Plan ■■ Training in Japan Actual ■ In-country/Third country Training Plan Actual

Activities Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Responsible Organization Issue & Achievements Sub-Activities Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣ Japan GOP Countermeasures Output 1: Capacity on formulation of FFWS development plan of PAGASA HMD is enhanced 1.1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ Completed river basins, and to extract problems in FFWS Actual ■■ 1.2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■■■ Completed rivers Actual ■■■■■ 1.3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■ Completed deciding priority of phased developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers Actual ■ ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ 1.4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Draft prepared Actual ■■■□□□□■□□□■□□ 1.5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ On-going incl. budget estimation Actual ■■□□■■■ Output 2:Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on quality management/storage of the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced 2.1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation ○○◎○○ Plan ■ Completed data of PAGASA Actual ■ 2.2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the ○○◎○○ Plan ■ Completed existing FFWS/FFWSDO Actual ■ 2.3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ Completed organizations Actual ■■ 2.4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ □□□□□□□ Completed development level in the future, expandability and efficiency Actual ■■ 2.5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ Under trial data Actual ■■■□□□□□ 2.6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input ○○◎○○ Plan ■■■■ On-going the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format Actual ■ ■■■ 2.7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ On-going hydrometeorological database Actual ■ □ 2.8 To check malfunction of the existing observation/communication ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ Completed equipment Actual ■■ 2.9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning observation/ ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ Completed communication equipment for budgeting by PAGASA Actual ■■ Output 3: Organization/staffing and, equipment/facility of RFFWC are standarized according to the development levels of FFWS 3.1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible ◎○○○○○ Plan ■ Completed problems of new RFFWCs Actual ■ □ 3.2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ transmission at the time of flooding, and to propose efficient procedures Completed Actual ■■■ for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs 3.3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications On-going Actual ■■■■■■ between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 3.4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ Draft prepared PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Actual ■■ ■□□□■■■ 3.5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, On-going and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings Actual ■■■ ■ with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Output 4: Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins is enhanced 4.1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and ○◎○○○○ Plan ■■■■■■ On-going hydrometeorological data transmission plan Actual ■■■■□ ■■ 4.2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning Draft prepared Actual ■□□□□□□□■■□□■■■ water levels 4.3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan ○○◎○ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ Not yet started de Oro and Tagoloan river basins Actual 4.4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ Not yet started transmitted from RFFWC Actual Output 5: Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood forecasting and warning is developed 5.1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ Draft prepared Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Actual ■□□□□□□□■■□□■■■ ○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ 5.2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Not yet started Actual 5.3 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Not yet started basins, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through Actual meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 5.4 To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing ○◎○○ ○ Plan ■■ Not yet started observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD Actual Plan Duration / Phasing Actual

Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Monitoring Plan Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢ Ⅳ Monitoring Plan ■■■■■■■■ Joint Coordination Committee Actual ■■■■■ Plan ■ Set-up the Detailed Plan of Operation Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Submission of Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■■■ Plan Monitoring Mission from Japan Actual ■ Plan Joint Monitoring Actual Plan Post Monitoring Actual Reports/Documents Plan ■ Work Plan Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■■■ Plan ■ Prgress report Actual ■ Plan ■ Project Completion Report Actual Public Relations Plan ■■■■■■2nd Media Briefing is scheduled for PR Activities Actual ■■ early February 2018 Plan ■■■ Project Brief Note Actual ■■ Plan ■■ ■ Seminar Actual ■■ PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary

~~TO CR of JICA PHILIPPINE OFFICE~~

~~PROJECT MONITORING SHEET~~

Project Title : Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version of the Sheet: Ver.5 （Term: February, 2018 – July, 2018） Name: Vicente B. MALANO, PhD MNSA Title: Project Director Name: Yoshihiro MOTOKI Title: Team Leader/ Flood Management/ Flood Forecasting and Warning Submission Date: August 8, 2018 I. Summary 1 Progress 1-1 Progress of Inputs (1) Expert The inputs of JICA expert team up to July 31, 2018 for this period and entire period are 4.90 and 42.87 M/M, respectively, as summarized in the table below. Mr. Hishinuma became unable to continue taking part in the project due to transfer within a firm in April 2018. The remaining parts of his assignment and tasks were reallocated to the other members. Inputs of the other experts go on as planned so far.

Input M/M Position Name Planned Performed Progress Original Latest This Period Entire Team Leader / Flood Management/ FFW Yoshihiro MOTOKI 11.50 11.87 0.83 8.40 71% Deputy Team Leader / River Management Hikaru SUGIMOTO 8.50 9.57 0.97 6.17 64% Integrated Data Management/ Database Minoru KURIKI 10.80 10.80 0.97 8.97 83% Monitoring System/ Hydrology Shiro HISHINUMA 8.00 5.73 0.43 5.73 100% Information & Communication/ Warning Issuance Yoshiyuki SHINJI 9.50 9.70 1.00 7.60 78% Institutional Strengthening / HR Development Masaki ITO 7.50 7.50 0.70 6.00 80% Total 55.80 55.17 4.90 42.87 78%

(2) Equipment In this period, procurement procedures for two (2) desktop computers, one (1) large monitor and one (1) GIS software, which will be used in Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC, were commenced. They will be delivered between August and September 2018. On the other hand, it was determined through PWG’s discussions that database software and program software are not procured by the project because designing of database itself was no longer required as commercially available software owned by PAGASA was to be utilized.

(3) Training in Japan The 2nd counterpart training in Japan was conducted from June 24 to July 7, 2018 based in Tokyo. A total of five trainees selected from PAGASA HMD and RFFWCs participated in the training.

~~1 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

1-2 Progress of Activities Activities 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1 and 3.2 have been completed by the last period. On the other hand, activities 4.3, 4.4, 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4 were newly commenced. The following activities including the continued ones from previous periods were performed in this period: [Activity 1.4] To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Progress: The draft Roadmap, which had been prepared in the last period, was continuously improved in this period particularly in terms of status of monitoring network, development target level and human resourced deployment schedule in connection with the PAGASA modernization plan, etc. [Activity 1.5] To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS incl. budget estimation Progress: The draft mid-term plan is under preparation. Cost estimates in accordance with the action plans for the high-prioritized 7 river basins (Group A) were completed in the last period. The cost estimates were reviewed and duly revised some items. Annual disbursement schedule of the required budget was initially examined. [Activity 2.5] To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data Progress: The draft Quality Management Standards have been prepared and are under trial. [Activity 2.6] To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format. Progress: The decision was made that the integrated hydrometeorological database was to be established utilizing the commercially available software, the licenses of which PAGASA owned. Real-time data integration for the Pampanga and Agno FFW systems has started and ready to be uploaded on the database. Integration procedures for other existing FFW systems are being tested. [Activity 2.7] To apply the quality management standards to the integrated hydrometeorological database. Progress: Actual past data of the Pampanga and Agno FFW systems are ready to be entered into the integrated hydrological data management system to which the quality management standards are to be applied. [Activity 3.3] To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS Progress: The Standards of Telemetry System is being referred to tentatively as the planning and designing guideline for the establishment of the remaining FFWS telemetry systems. The document is also being referred to for the lectures conducted by HMTS. [Activity 3.4] To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Progress: The draft Guidelines for RFFWC Operations was updated and compiled as the 2nd draft in January 2018. It was officially delivered to the 11 existing RFFWCs in February. Trial application and monitoring is on-going as of July. [Activity 3.5] To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned

~~2 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Progress: The Procedures of Flood Warning Dissemination has been drafted. The document is still being checked in details for elaboration. [Activity 4.1] To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data transmission plan Progress: The draft plans for staffing, monitoring equipment and data transmission in the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins were prepared in this period. They will be further elaborated so as to harmonize with the draft Roadmap. [Activity 4.2] To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning water levels Progress: Activities are on-going as mentioned in Activity 5.1 below [Activity 4.3] To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins Progress: It was found through a study on quality management that observation sensors were not properly installed in the Cagayan de Oro river basin. As quality management of hydrological observation, some water level sensors of the Cagayan de Oro River were lowered to properly detect the water level, and obstructions to some rainfall sensors of the Cagayan de Oro river basin was removed by relocating the sensors or trimming branch of trees. [Activity 4.4] To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data transmitted from RFFWC Progress: The training was conducted together with Activity 5.4 below. [Activity 5.1] To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Progress: H-Q curves were produced using discharge measurement results up to December 2017 and draft flood warning water levels were preliminarily set through the activities of PWG-C. [Activity 5.2] To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Progress: Twin Phoenix data are received in real-time by HMD FTP server. NDMI data are received in real-time by FFWS Workstation (NDMI) located in HMD. [Activity 5.3] To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Progress: A document on flood warning dissemination to be used for the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins was developed in July 2018. In particular, dissemination flow and method were discussed among concerned organizations before and after training mentioned in Activity 5.4 below. The document will be finalized after the 2nd training in November. [Activity 5.4] To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD Progress: A training was conducted on July 31, 2018 with the participation of relevant organizations particularly at a field level. Out of twice trainings scheduled in the project, the first training focused mainly on warning dissemination between organizations rather than warning issuance. The second training will place emphasis on warning issuance.

~~3 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

1-3 Achievement of Output In order to evaluate the achievement level of the outputs every six months, 10 objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) have been established for the outputs 1 to 5. Since almost two-thirds of the Project period have passed, some outputs are being applied to trial operation aiming at further elaboration of those. The achievement status of the project outputs up to the end of this period are briefly described as follows: OVI-1.1: Draft roadmap and draft medium-term plan have been prepared and are under review. OVI-2.1: Database has been established and is under preparation for full-scale operation. OVI-2.2: Three quality management standards have been prepared and are under trial. OVI-3.1: Draft development standards only for equipment/ facilities have been drafted. OVI-3.2: Draft guidelines have been prepared and are under review and trial. OVI-3.3: Procedures have been drafted and discussed among concerned organizations. OVI-4.1: Draft warning water levels have been established. OVI-4.2: Training was conducted for Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC. OVI-5.1: Data of Twin Phoenix and NDMI are transmitted to HMD in real-time. OVI-5.2: Flood warnings were issued based on warning level, but the issuance was a little late. Besides, verification results from the perspective of DAC criteria are summarized as follows: 1) Effectiveness: The five outputs expected in the Project cover various issues to be solved in strengthening capacity of integrated data management and utilization for flood forecasting and warning (FFW) service in PAGASA HMD and target RFFWC. 2) Efficiency: Timing, quantity and quality of inputs are appropriate and all inputs are fully utilized to generate so far intended outputs.

1-4 Achievement of the Project Purpose In order to evaluate the achievement level of the project purpose every six months, three objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) were initially designed. And their target values were agreed in the 4th JCC. After that, mid-term review team recommended in the 5th JCC that CPs and JICA Experts review the necessity of modifying the indicator of the overall goal before the Project ends. Therefore, the OVIs for overall goal were modified before the 6th JCC as presented in PDM. In accordance with the change of OVIs for overall goal, OVIs for project purpose were also modified as follows:

OVI-1. The average number of days required for restoring a trouble of a flood forecasting system shows a declining trend in the 5 river basins, namely the Cagayan de Oro, Pampanga, Agno, Cagayan and Pasig-Laguna de Bay river basins. OVI-2. At least 80% of hydro-meteorological data of the 5 river basins are stored in the integrated database by applying a standard data format and quality management standards. OVI-3. Flood forecasting and warning is operational (issuance of flood bulletins) at Cagayan de Oro river basin. Note: Underlined parts were newly specified and modified.

~~4 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

The achievement levels in this period in terms of OVIs are summarized as follows: OVI-1: The average values of the past two periods for the Pampanga, Agno and Cagayan de Oro river basins were estimated at 10 days, 7 days and 3.1 days, respectively. These serve as a baseline in evaluating whether a value in this period shows a declining trend. Compared with these values, Pampanga [8 days] shows a declining trend, while Agno [16 days] and Cagayan de Oro [3.2 days] show an increasing trend. River Basin The Past 2 Periods This Period Trend Jan-Jun 2017 Jul-Dec 2017 Average Jan-Jun 2018 Pampanga 12 days 8 days 10 days 8 days Declining Agno 11 days 3 days 7 days 16 days Increasing Cagayan de Oro 3 days 4 days 3.1 days 3.2 days Increasing Note: The Project team reviewed the calculation method and decided to exclude the gauging stations that are not under the control of PAGASA from the calculation. For that reason, the above values of the past two periods were updated accordingly. OVI-2: As of 6 August 2018, data storage is 19.2% for the period from January 2017 to June 2018. As the configuration of database has been properly established in late July 2018, the percentage is expected to increase rapidly. The prospect on achievement is relatively high. OVI-3: The OVI was definitized by adding words indicating what is “operational status”. From the viewpoint of whether or not flood bulletin was issued, FFW service at the Cagayan de Oro river basin is considered operational and thus the project purpose was almost achieved. However, there is still room for improvement in issuing flood bulletin in terms of timing and contents. Efforts to improve the status will be continued in the project activities. Besides, verification results from the perspective of DAC criteria are summarized as follows: 1) Relevance: The framework of the Project coincides with the Country Assistance Policy for the Philippine of Japan (April 2012). Further, the output envisaged by the Project is appropriate in the light of PAGASA Modernization Program (2017-2019). The Project activities aim to strengthen FFW services in the 18 major river basins, which is one of major targets of the Project and is mainstream of the PAGASA Modernization Program as well. 2) Effectiveness: The basic approach for preparation of the Roadmap and establishment of standard data format, etc. are very effective in terms of capacity development of the counterpart personnel (Project Working Group (PWG) members) through active participation to the Project activities and task allotment to be handled by them. 3) Impact: The Project has enhanced awareness in counterpart on the importance of data management for FFWSs in the targeted river basins of the Project. Therefore, impact on the overall goal of the Project is positive. 4) Sustainability: The sustainability of the Project is expected to be assured in terms of political, organizational, financial and technical aspects. In particular, based on the review of the actual Project activities conducted by three PWGs, the Project can be sustained so far and Project performance is quite satisfactory. However, further enhancement of the Project activities is required with encouraging PWG members for more proactive participation of them.

~~5 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

1) The PAGASA Modernization Act will deeply affect organizational structure of PAGASA. 2) Repeated problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin may affect the quality of hydro-meteorological data as well as data acquisition. 3) The delay of JICS Project may negatively affect Project activities in the Tagoloan River basin. 4) The repeated delay in constructing a RFFWC building in El Salvador may negatively affect Project activities. 5) Recent security situation in Mindanao may cause the delay and/or limitation of activities in the target river basins. Actions undertaken by JICA expert team so far include situation monitoring, information gathering and facilitation through giving technical advices to PAGASA.

1-6 Progress of Actions undertaken by JICA In the previous period, JICA Philippines Office issued an official letter requesting indicative timelines for improving the situations of the above issues 1) to 4) to PAGASA dated December 5, 2017. In response to that, PAGASA replied to JICA Philippines Office on December 13, 2017. Nevertheless, the situation was not improved within the timelines suggested by PAGASA. Mid-term review team therefore, in the 5th JCC held in January 2018, made seven recommendations including the above issues 1) to 4). After that, JICA Philippines Office has continued follow-up through email communication with the key CP of the Project.

1-7 Progress of Actions undertaken by Gov. of Philippines The following actions were undertaken by Gov. of Philippines: 1) The PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP) submitted by PAGASA was already reviewed by NEDA and DOST and is still waiting for the evaluation and acceptance of the Department of Budget and Management (DBM). 2) PAGASA HMD and MPRSD conducted a filed survey for identifying causes of the technical problems. Then, MPRSD relocated water level sensors and procured batteries, etc. 3) PAGASA issued the Notice to Proceed (NTP) to the winning bidder for installing equipment to the Tagoloan River basin. Installation works have been done and communication network is being established as of end-July. 4) PAGASA prepared necessary documents for contractor’s obtaining a building permit.

~~1-8 Progress of Environmental and Social Considerations (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~1-9 Progress of Considerations on Gender/Peace Building/Poverty Reduction (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~1-10 Other remarkable/considerable issues related/affect to the project (such as other JICA's projects, activities of counterparts, other donors, private sectors, NGOs etc.)~~

~~6 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

1) The JICA Preparatory Survey for the Project for Developing Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Cagayan de Oro River basin was completed in March 2018. After that, E/N (Exchange of Note) and G/A (Grant Agreement) were signed in June 2018. 2) PAGASA proposed two locally-funded projects for establishing an Integrated Hydrological Data Management Systems for Flood Forecasters (Software and Hardware) covering HMD and all the RFFWCs to be implemented in 2018. Considering this, the activity of an Integrated Hydrometeorological Database establishment needed to be redesigned in such a way that the mechanism of converting existing FFWS data into the format that can be dealt with by the software in real time shall be established. While the above projects were not implemented in 2018, the redesigned activity would be implemented using the software licenses that PAGASA had precedently acquired. 2 Delay of Work Schedule and/or Problems (if any) 2-1 Detail (1) PAGASA Modernization Act The PAGASA Modernization Act was approved and enacted on November 3, 2015 during the administration of the former President Benigno S. Aquino III. The PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP), which is duly contemplated to implement the Act covering the 3-year development program (2017-2019) of PAGASA, will affect entire operation of FFWS/ FFWSDO by HMD in terms of institution, budget, equipment and human resources development. Approval on the Implementation Rules and Regulation (IRR), which was initially submitted in February 2016, was secured in December 2017. On the other hand, the Final Draft of the PMP is still under deliberation by DBM.

(2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin MPRSD has been facing problems in the monitoring devices and/or systems installed by two projects, namely 1) Twin Phoenix and 2) NDMI. The details of respective projects are as follows: 1) As of end-July 2018, seven Twin Phoenix monitoring stations (Mambuaya, Dagumbaan, Cosina, Tikalaan, Taguanao, Basak and Tumalaong) are not properly transmitting data to MPRSD due mainly to faulty solar charger controller and defective battery. The batteries and solar charger controller have been ordered and waiting for the delivery. 2) As of end-July 2018, the real-time data of NDMI stations cannot be viewed both at MPRSD and at Cagayan de Oro CDRRMD due to malfunction of the NDMI's FFAS (Flash Flood Alert System) GUI.

(3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin Installation of the monitoring devices procured by JICS project for the Tagoloan River basin has been delayed since 2014. As of end-July 2018, the installation itself has been done and communication network is being established. It is scheduled to be completed by end-August 2018.

(4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC The contract document was signed in early 2018. However, construction works were suspended at the stage of building permit because geological problems were newly found. After re-designing of the foundation of building, PAGASA prepared necessary documents for a building permit. Construction is scheduled to be commenced on August 12, 2018 and completed within 180 days.

~~(5) Deteriorating security situation in Mindanao The security situation in Mindanao has been seriously deteriorating. Project activities in the target river~~

~~7 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~basins, such as flood warning issuance and dissemination drill, training of discharge measurement for PWG members, etc., are widely restricted.~~

2-2 Cause (1) PAGASA Modernization Act PAGASA cannot control the approval procedure by themselves, since other agencies, such as DBM, NEDA and DOST, are holding responsibilities and having key roles for evaluation. PAGASA has modified the draft and submitted it already.

(2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin 1) The major causes of problems in the Twin Phoenix facilities were unstable GUI in the server, power supply of the stations, no available spare parts, etc. 2) The malfunction of the NDMI's FFAS GUI is caused by software problem.

(3) Delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan River basin The delay was caused by the modification of TOR as well as the repeated unsuccessful bidding/ contracting process. Besides, recent deterioration of security situation was also one of the reasons for further delay.

(4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC Lack of site investigation and standard specification/ configuration of the monitoring network and telecommunication devices in PAGASA and changes in building design as well a construction site triggered the repeated delay. In addition, when asking Cagayan de Oro city hall for building permit in February 2018, another problem in terms of geological conditions at the construction site was newly found and thus re-designing of the foundation was additionally needed.

~~(5) Deteriorating security situation in Mindanao Peace negotiation between the government and rebel groups have not been completed.~~

(2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin 1) As soon as the batteries and solar charger controller are delivered, MPRSD need to conduct an operation check with the replaced batteries and controllers. 2) HMD has already issued a letter of endorsement to NDMI so that NDMI obtains a fund for rehabilitating the system. As of end-July, PAGASA is awaiting the procedure within NDMI.

~~8 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

(4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC Construction is scheduled to be commenced on August 12, 2018 and completed within 180 days after resumption order is issued. MPRSD needs to facilitate the implementation at a field level.

2-4 Roles of Responsible Persons/Organization (JICA, Gov. of Philippines, etc.) PAGASA is responsible for taking the above actions. JICA expert team will monitor the progress and discuss with JICA as needed. 3 Modification of the Project Implementation Plan 3-1 PO No modification.

~~4 Preparation of Gov. of Philippines toward after completion of the Project No particular action in this period. II. Project Monitoring Sheet I & II as Attached~~

~~9 PM Form3-2 Monitoring Sheet I~~

~~Project Monitoring Sheet I （Revision of Project Design Matrix） Red fonts show the changes from Ver.4.~~

Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version 5 Implementing Agency: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Dated August 8, 2018 Target Group: Staff of PAGASA Hydro-Meteorology Division (HMD) and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Period of Project: July 2016 – June 2019 (36 months) Project Site: PAGASA Headquarters and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Narrative Summary Objectively Verifiable Indicators Means of Verification Important Assumption Achievement Remarks Overall Goal 1. The average number of days required for restoring a trouble 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data Mid-term of a flood forecasting system shows a declining trend in the 11 Monitoring review team river basins, namely Pampanga, Agno, Bicol, Cagayan, Pasig- recommended Laguna de Bay, Abra, Jalaur, Cagayan de Oro, Tagoloan, in the 5th JCC Davao and Tagum-Libuganon river basins. that CPs and Overall capacity of PAGASA on integral 2. Quality management of hydrometeorological data of the 11 2. Record of Hydrometeorological Data JICA Experts review the data management/ utilization for Flood river basins is conducted at HMD in accordance with the quality Monitoring necessity of Forecasting and Warning System (FFWS) management standards prepared by the Project. modifying the is enhanced. 3. At least 80% of hydrometeorological data of the 11 river 3. Integrated Database indicator of the basins are stored in the integrated database by applying a Overall Goal standard data format and quality management standards. before the 4. Flood forecasting and warning is operational (issuance of 4. Technical Reports before Ex-post Project ends. flood bulletins) at the 11 river basins. Evaluation

Project Purpose 1. The average number of days required for restoring a trouble 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data ・ Necessary budget for phased 1. Jan-Jun 2018 period OVIs were of a flood forecasting system shows a declining trend in the 5 Monitoring development of RFFWCs is Pampanga: 8 days (declining) agreed in the river basins, namely the Cagayan de Oro, Pampanga, Agno, secured. Agno: 16 days (increasing) 4th JCC. Capacity of PAGASA HMD and target Cagayan and Pasig-Laguna de Bay river basins. ・ Necessary budget for operation/ CDO: 3 days (increasing) However, the RFFWC on integral data management/ 2. At least 80% of hydro-meteorological data of the 5 river 2. Integrated Database maintenance of the existing 2. Data storage: 19.3% for the target river utilization for FFWS is enhanced. basins are stored in the integrated database by applying a RFFWCs is secured. period from Jan 2017 to Jun basins were standard data format and quality management standards. ・ Counterpart personnel who are 2018 (As of 6 August 2018) reviewed and 3.Flood forecasting and warning is operational (issuance of 3. Technical Reports before the Project trained by the Project do not 3. Flood bulletins were issued, modified in flood bulletins) at Cagayan de Oro river basin. termination transferred to other job. but a little late. the 6th JCC.

Outputs 1. Capacity on formulation of FFWS 1.1 Draft roadmap and draft medium-term plan for 1-1 Project Report, draft mediun-term plan, ・ Necessary budget for phased 1.1: Draft medium-term plan Although, development Plan of PAGASA HMD is enhancement of FFWS are reviewed and finalized. draft roadmap development of RFFWCs is have been prepared and are nothing has enhanced. secured. under review. been 2. Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on 2.1 A hydrometeorological database using the standard data 2-1 Interview of HMD ・ Necessary budget for operation/ 2.1: Database has been completely quality management/ storage of the format is established and operated. maintenance of the existing established and is under achieved, the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced. RFFWCs and renewal of preparation for operation. related 2.2 Quality management standards are complied at HMD in 2-2 Interview of HMD, quality management equipment is secured. 2.2: The draft Quality Manage- activities are handling hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de standards ・ Counterpart personnel who are ment Standards have been being Oro/Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. trained by the Project do not prepared and are under trial. performed 3. Organization/staffing and, 3.1 At least 2 number of RFFWCs are developed according to 3-1 Questionnaires to HMD and each RFFWCtransferred to other job. 3.1: Draft development toward the equipment/facility of RFFWC are the draft development standards for staffing and ・ Security situation does not standards only for equipment/ achievement standardized according to the equipment/facilities. deteriorate significantly. facilities have been drafted. of the development levels of FFWS. 3.2 At least 2 number of RFFWCs comply with the guidelines 3-2 Questionnaires to HMD and each 3.2: Draft guidelines have been respective for RFFWC operations RFFWCs prepared and are under trial. OVIs as 3.3 Procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other 3-3 Questionnaires to HMD, minutes of 3.3: Procedures have been scheduled. concerned organizations are agreed/adopted by LGUs meeting drafted and discussed among (Cagayan de Oro City and Tagoloan Municipality). concerned organizations. 4. Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of 4.1 Flood warning water levels at observation stations of 4-1 Interview of HMD, warning water level 4.1: Draft warning water levels Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers are established by HMD. report have been established. basins is enhanced. 4.2 Trainings on issuing flood warning are conducted for at 4-2 Interview of HMD, activity report 4.2: Training was conducted for least 2 number of RFFWCs. Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC. 5. Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5.1 Hydrometeorological data of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5-1 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan 5.1: Data of Twin Phoenix and RFFWC on data management for flood RFFWC are transmitted to HMD periodically according to the RFFWC, database of HMD NDMI are transmitted to HMD in forecasting and warning is developed. guidelines. real-time. 5.2 Flood warning is issued according to the rules whenever 5-2 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan 5.2: Flood warnings were water level of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers reaches to RFFWC, flood bulletins issued based on warning level, the warning level. but a little late.

Activities Inputs Important Assumption 1-1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major river basins, and to extract The Japanese Side The Philippine Side problems in FFWS 1. JICA Experts 1. Counterpart Personnel ・ Newly developed standards/manuals are 1-2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major rivers (1) Team Leader / Flood Control / Flood (1) Project Manager approved/ adopted by concerned Forecasting & Warning (2) Hydrologist organizations. 1-3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for deciding priority of phased (2) Deputy Team Leader / River Management (3) Monitoring/ Communications ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained by developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers (3) Integral Data Management/Database Staff the Project do not transferred to other job. 1-4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS (4) Monitoring System/ Runoff Analysis (4) ICT Staff ・ Security situation does not deteriorate (5) Information & Communication/ Warning (5) Support Staff significantly. 1-5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS incl. budget estimation Notification ・ Monitoring equipment for the target rivers (6) Institutional Strengthening/ Human 2. Office space for the Project planed by JICS and NDMI is installed. 2-1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation data of PAGASA Resource Development including telephone, facsimile, internet services and other office 2-2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the existing FFWS/FFWSDO 2. Equipment essentials (in PAGASA ・ Desktop PC: 4 sets Headquarters and River Center) Pre-Conditions 2-3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned organizations ・ FTP server: 1 sets ・ Technical staff are assigned at target 2-4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of development level in the future, ・ Decoder: 2 sets 3. Expense necessary for RFFWC. expandability and efficiency ・ Large Monitor (40 inch): 1 set execution of the Project (customs ・ Multifunction printer: 1 set duty for equipment, 2-5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data ・ Inkjet printer: 1 set remuneration/travel cost/ per diem 2-6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input the hydrometeorological data ・ Database software: none etc. for the counterpart Issues with the standard data format ・ GIS software: 1 set 1) The PAGASA Modernization Act 2-7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated hydrometeorological database ・ Program software: none 2) Repeated problems with monitoring devices ・ Current meter / Float: 1 set /1 lot and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River 2-8 To check malfunction of the existing FFWS observation/communication equipment basin 3. Local Subcontract 3) The delay of JICS Project in the Tagoloan 2-9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning existing FFWS observation/ communication ・ River Cross Section Survey：1 lot River basin equipment for budgeting by PAGASA ・ Discharge Measurement：1 lot 4) Delay in constructing a RFFWC building in 3-1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible problems of new RFFWCs El Salvador 3-2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information transmission at the time of flooding, 4. Training in Japan 5) Recent security situation in Mindanao and to propose efficient procedures for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs ・ Utilization of hydro-meteorological data on flood and river managements: 2 times Actions to be Taken 3-3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission 1) HMD and FPMD need to facilitate the from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications procedure. between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 2) All technical problems should be solved 3-4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA’s internal monitoring on properly. compliance by each RFFWCs 3) HMD FFWS (Section) should ensure the 3-5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 efficient supervision of implementation. river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through 4) MPRSD needs to facilitate the meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. implementation at a field level. 4-1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data 5) In parallel with collecting security transmission plan information, project activities in terms of 4-2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan schedule and approach are to be reconsidered RFFWC, and to establish flood warning water levels if the occasion arises. 4-3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins 4-4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data transmitted from RFFWC 5-1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD 5-2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically

Project Monitoring Sheet II (Revision of Plan of Operation) Red fonts show the changes from Ver.4. Version 5 Dated August 8, 2018 Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Monitoring Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Inputs Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡ ⅢⅣ

Expert 78910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 123456 Plan Yoshihiro MOTOKI: Team Leader / Flood Management / Flood Forecasting and Warning Actual Plan Hikaru SUGIMOTO: Deputy Team Leader / River Management Actual Plan Minoru KURIKI: Integrated Data Management / Database Actual Plan Shiro HISHINUMA: Monitoring System / Hydrology Actual Plan Yoshiyuki SHINJI: Information & Communication / Warning Issuance Actual Plan Masaki ITO: Institutional Strengthening / Human Resources Development Actual Equipment 1) Procurement procedures for two Some equipment are Equipment for RFFWC Plan ■ desktop computers, one large planned to be installed will be installed in the Desktop Computers Actual ■ monitor and one GIS software were in the Cagayan de Oro/ MPRSD office Plan ■ commenced in July 2018. They will Tagoloan RFFWC. temporarily. Data Server Actual ■ be delivered to MPRSD between Aug However the Plan ■ and Sep 2018. construction of RFFWC Large Monitor Actual ■ 2) It was determined that database is delayed. Plan ■ software and program software are Multifunction machine (Printer/Photocopy) Actual ■ not procured by the project because Plan ■ designing of database itself was no Color Inkjet Printer Actual ■ longer required as commercially Plan ■ available software owned by Database Software Actual PAGASA was to be utilized. Plan ■ GIS Software Actual ■ Plan ■ Program Software Actual Plan ■ Current Meter / Float Actual ■ Training in Japan Plan ■■ Training in Japan Actual ■■ In-country/Third country Training Plan Actual

Activities Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Responsible Organization Issue & Achievements Sub-Activities Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣ Japan GOP Countermeasures Output 1: Capacity on formulation of FFWS development plan of PAGASA HMD is enhanced 1.1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ Completed river basins, and to extract problems in FFWS Actual ■■ 1.2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■■■ Completed rivers Actual ■■■■■ 1.3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■ Completed deciding priority of phased developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers Actual ■ ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ 1.4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Draft prepared Actual ■■■□□□□■□□□■□□■□□□□■■ 1.5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ On-going incl. budget estimation Actual ■■□□■■■□□□□□■■ Output 2:Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on quality management/storage of the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced 2.1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation ○○◎○○ Plan ■ Completed data of PAGASA Actual ■ 2.2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the ○○◎○○ Plan ■ Completed existing FFWS/FFWSDO Actual ■ 2.3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ Completed organizations Actual ■■ 2.4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ □□□□□□□ Completed development level in the future, expandability and efficiency Actual ■■ 2.5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ Under trial data Actual ■■■□□□□□ 2.6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input ○○◎○○ Plan ■■■■ On-going the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format Actual ■ ■■■□ ■ 2.7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ On-going hydrometeorological database Actual ■ □□ 2.8 To check malfunction of the existing observation/communication ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ Completed equipment Actual ■■ 2.9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning observation/ ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ Completed communication equipment for budgeting by PAGASA Actual ■■ Output 3: Organization/staffing and, equipment/facility of RFFWC are standarized according to the development levels of FFWS 3.1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible ◎○○○○○ Plan ■ Completed problems of new RFFWCs Actual ■ □ 3.2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ transmission at the time of flooding, and to propose efficient procedures Completed Actual ■■■ for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs 3.3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications Draft prepared Actual ■■■■■■ □ between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 3.4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ Under trial PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Actual ■■ ■□□□■■■■□□□□■ 3.5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, Draft prepared and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings Actual ■■■ ■ □ with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Output 4: Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins is enhanced 4.1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and ○◎○○○○ Plan ■■■■■■ On-going hydrometeorological data transmission plan Actual ■■■■□ ■■ 4.2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning Draft prepared Actual ■□□□□□□□■■□□■■■□□□□□■ water levels 4.3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan ○○◎○ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ On-going de Oro and Tagoloan river basins Actual ■■□□□□□ 4.4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ Conducted once transmitted from RFFWC Actual ■ Output 5: Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood forecasting and warning is developed 5.1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ Draft prepared Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Actual ■□□□□□□□■■□□■■■ ○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ Partially 5.2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Actual □□□□□□□ transmitted 5.3 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Draft prepared basins, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through Actual ■■■ meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 5.4 To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing ○◎○○ ○ Plan ■■ Conducted once observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD Actual ■ Plan Duration / Phasing Actual

Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Monitoring Plan Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢ Ⅳ Monitoring Plan ■■■■■■■■ Joint Coordination Committee Actual ■■■■■ ■ Plan ■ Set-up the Detailed Plan of Operation Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Submission of Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■■■ ■ Plan Monitoring Mission from Japan Actual ■ Plan Joint Monitoring Actual Plan Post Monitoring Actual Reports/Documents Plan ■ Work Plan Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■■■ ■ Plan ■ Prgress report Actual ■ Plan ■ Project Completion Report Actual Public Relations Plan ■■■■■■Result of CP training in Japan was PR Activities Actual ■■■■ compiled for JICA's press release. Plan ■■■ Project Brief Note Actual ■■ Plan ■■ ■ Seminar Actual ■■ PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary

~~TO CR of JICA PHILIPPINE OFFICE~~

~~PROJECT MONITORING SHEET~~

Project Title : Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version of the Sheet: Ver.6 （Term: August 2018 – January 2019） Name: Vicente B. MALANO, PhD MNSA Title: Project Director Name: Yoshihiro MOTOKI Title: Team Leader/ Flood Management/ Flood Forecasting and Warning Submission Date: February 19, 2019 I. Summary 1 Progress 1-1 Progress of Inputs (1) Expert The inputs of JICA expert team up to January 31, 2019 for this period and entire period are 6.17 and 49.03 M/M, respectively, as summarized in the table below. As mentioned in the Ver.5, the remaining parts of Mr. Hishinuma’s assignment and tasks were reallocated to the other members. Inputs of the other experts go on as planned so far.

Input M/M Position Name Planned Performed Progress Original Latest This Period Entire Team Leader / Flood Management/ FFW Yoshihiro MOTOKI 11.50 11.87 1.47 9.87 83% Deputy Team Leader / River Management Hikaru SUGIMOTO 8.50 9.57 1.90 8.07 84% Integrated Data Management/ Database Minoru KURIKI 10.80 10.80 1.00 9.97 92% Monitoring System/ Hydrology Shiro HISHINUMA 8.00 5.73 0.00 5.73 100% Information & Communication/ Warning Issuance Yoshiyuki SHINJI 9.50 9.70 1.30 8.90 92% Institutional Strengthening / HR Development Masaki ITO 7.50 7.50 0.50 6.50 87% Total 55.80 55.17 6.17 49.03 89%

(2) Equipment Procurement procedures for two desktop computers, one large monitor and one GIS software, which are supposed to be used in Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC, were commenced in the previous period and all of them were delivered in September 2018, at the beginning of this period. On the other hand, it was determined in the previous period through PWG’s discussions that database software and program software are not procured by the project because designing of database itself was no longer required as commercially available software owned by PAGASA was to be utilized. Accordingly, all the equipment to be procured by the project have been already procured and delivered by this period.

~~(3) Training in Japan The 2nd counterpart training in Japan was conducted from June 24 to July 7, 2018 in the previous period. The results were reported in the 6th JCC meeting in August 2018.~~

~~1 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

1-2 Progress of Activities Activities 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1, 3.2 and 4.3 had been completed by the previous periods. On the other hand, the other activities have been performed continuously or intermittently from the previous periods to this period depending on the activity. Their major progress achieved by this period are summarized below. Furthermore, the Project is expected to develop 13 kinds of technical cooperation products through the activities. The progress of preparing the respective products are also mentioned together with the corresponding activities. In addition to the various products described below, the Rehabilitation Plan of Telemetry Equipment for Existing FFWS [product No.6] was prepared through the completed activities 2.8 and 2.9, though it doesn’t appear below. [Activity 1.4] To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Progress: The draft Roadmap [product No.1], which had been continuously reviewed and improved in the previous periods, was almost finalized in this period by updating status of monitoring network and so forth. The remaining main issue is human resources deployment schedule in connection with the PAGASA modernization plan, etc. [Activity 1.5] To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS incl. budget estimation Progress: The draft Medium-term Plans [product No.2], which had been prepared and improved in the previous periods, was almost finalized in this period. Cost estimates were reviewed and updated based on the latest information. Annual disbursement schedule of the required budget was then re-examined. [Activity 2.5] To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data Progress: The draft Quality Management Standards [product No.4] have been prepared. The sections for observation (QMS-1) and archive data (QMS-3) are being implemented while the section for Real-time data (QMS-2) is under trial. [Activity 2.6] To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format [product No.3]. Progress: The decision was made that the integrated hydrometeorological database was to be established utilizing the commercially available software, the licenses of which PAGASA owned. Real-time data integration for the Pampanga, Agno and Bicol FFW systems has started and ready to be uploaded on the database. Integration procedures for other existing FFW systems are being tested. [Activity 2.7] To apply the quality management standards to the integrated hydrometeorological database. Progress: Actual past data of the Pampanga, Agno, Cagayan de Oro and Pasig-Marikina FFW systems were entered into the integrated hydrological data management system to which the quality management standards are to be applied. [Activity 3.3] To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS Progress: The Development Standards for FFWS [product No.8] covering the above items comprehensively were prepared in this period. The document was shared with the

~~2 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

existing 11 RFFWCs in January 2019. The part of telemetry system that was previously prepared has been referred to tentatively as the planning and designing guideline for the establishment of the remaining FFWS telemetry systems. The document is also being referred to for the lectures conducted by HMTS. [Activity 3.4] To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Progress: The draft Operational Guidelines on RFFWC [product No.9] was updated and compiled as the 2nd draft and it was officially delivered to the 11 existing RFFWCs in February 2018. After trial application for about six months, feedbacks were collected from the RFFWCs and they were incorporated into the 3rd draft. It was again shared with the RFFWCs in January 2019 for further trial application as well as finalization. [Activity 3.5] To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Progress: The Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination from RFFWC [product No.7] was prepared and updated in November 2018 with reference to the lessons learnt from the drill activities conducted in Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC in July and November 2018. The document was shared with the existing 11 RFFWCs in January 2019. [Activity 4.1] To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data transmission plan Progress: The Staffing and Facility Plans for FFWS in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins [product No.10] was drafted in the previous period and updated in this period. The Plans will be further elaborated so as to harmonize with the Roadmap after discussion with MPRSD scheduled for February 2019. [Activity 4.2] To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning water levels Progress: As part of the PWG-C’s activities, HMD has checked H-Q curves and flood warning water levels prepared through the Activity 5.1 below. [Activity 4.4] To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data transmitted from RFFWC Progress: The training was conducted together with Activity 5.4 below. [Activity 5.1] To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Progress: H-Q curves that were drafted in the previous periods have been finalized by adding discharge measurement results up to December 2018. Besides, flood warning water levels were also updated based on the cross section survey results obtained after the typhoon Vinta. The both outputs were compiled into one document [product No.11] through the activities of PWG-C. [Activity 5.2] To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Progress: Twin Phoenix data are received in real-time by HMD FTP server. On the other hand, NDMI data are not received by HMD because the NDMI application software of the FFWS Workstation (NDMI) located in HMD is not working. In order to transmit data appropriately, Standard Procedure on O&M of Hydro-meteorological Database [product No.5] and Quality Management Procedure for Hydro-meteorological Data in Cagayan de

~~3 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

Oro and Tagoloan River Basins [product No.12] have been developed and intergraded into PAGASA’s data management. [Activity 5.3] To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Progress: The Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins [product No.13] was initially developed in July 2018 and has been improved in this period. In particular, dissemination flow and method were discussed among organizations through the drill activities mentioned in Activity 5.4 below. The document was finalized after the 2nd drill conducted in November 2018. [Activity 5.4] To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD Progress: The 1st and 2nd drill activities were conducted in July and November 2018, respectively, with the participation of relevant organizations particularly at a field level. Out of twice trainings/drills scheduled in the project, the 1st training focused mainly on warning dissemination between organizations rather than warning issuance. The 2nd one placed emphasis on warning issuance itself. The results of drill activities were reflected into the products No.7, 9 and 13 as mentioned above. Besides, the performed activities are verified from the perspective of DAC criteria as follows: Efficiency: Timing, quantity and quality of activities are appropriate and all activity results are fully utilized to generate so far intended outputs as indicated by the above-mentioned relationship between the performed activities and the developed products.

1-3 Achievement of Output In order to evaluate the achievement level of the outputs every six months, 10 objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) have been established for the outputs 1 to 5. The achievement status of the project outputs up to the end of this period are briefly described by OVI as follows: OVI-1.1: Draft roadmap and draft medium-term plan have been almost finalized and are under final review. OVI-2.1: A hydrometeorological database using the standard data format has been established and is under preparation for full-scale operation. Data entry works are in progress. OVI-2.2: Three quality management standards have been prepared. Two are being implemented (QMS-1 and QMS-3) while one (QMS-2) is under trial. OVI-3.1: Development standards for staffing and equipment/ facilities have been drafted and is under review. Telemetry systems of Tagoloan, Davao and Buayan-Malungon river basins were designed and developed according to the standards. OVI-3.2: Operational guidelines on RFFWC have been developed and are applied on a trial basis at the existing 11 RFFWCs. OVI-3.3: Procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations have been developed and agreed among concerned bodies through the discussions carried out during the flood drill activities. OVI-4.1: Flood warning water levels at six observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers have been established.

~~4 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

OVI-4.2: Trainings on issuing flood warning were conducted twice at Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC. OVI-5.1: Hydrometeorological data of the Twin Phoenix system is transmitted from Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC to HMD in real-time. OVI-5.2: Flood warnings were issued when water level of Cagayan de Oro river reached to the warning level during the project period, though the issuance was a little late. Besides, verification results from the perspective of DAC criteria are summarized as follows: 1) Effectiveness: The five outputs expected in the Project cover various issues to be solved in strengthening capacity of integrated data management and utilization for flood forecasting and warning (FFW) service in PAGASA HMD and target RFFWC. All the five outputs are attributed to the results of performed activities. 2) Efficiency: Timing, quantity and quality of inputs are appropriate and all the above outputs are considered fully contributed to the achievement of the project purpose.

1-4 Achievement of the Project Purpose In order to evaluate the achievement level of the project purpose every six months, three objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) were initially designed. And their target values were agreed in the 4th JCC. After that, mid-term review team recommended in the 5th JCC that CPs and JICA Experts review the necessity of modifying the indicator of the overall goal before the Project ends. Therefore, the OVIs for overall goal were modified and agreed in the 6th JCC as presented in PDM. In accordance with the change of OVIs for overall goal, the OVIs for project purpose were also finalized as follows:

The achievement levels of project purpose in this period by OVI are summarized as follows: OVI-1: The average values of the past two periods for the respective five river basins serve as a baseline in evaluating whether a value in this period shows a declining trend. The values are computed as summarized below. As seen in the table, only the Pampanga river basin shows a declining trend and thus achieved the OVI-1. Regrettably the other river basins show an increasing trend. This means that it takes longer time to repair than before. In the Pampanga river basin, the total number of days when a system is down in this period actually increased compared with the last period due to long-term malfunction of San Rafael relay station. However, the indicator value itself was decreased because the river center staff reactivate the system every time failure is found. This is the desirable action that the Project have wanted to evaluate using the OVI-1. In the Cagayan river basin, the indicator value of this period is much increased from the previous periods. This is because the telemetry master control at RFFWC has been down since November 2018 due to aging and has not been recovered as of end-January 2019.

~~5 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

River Basin The Past 2 Periods This Period Trend Jul-Dec 2017 Jan-Jun 2018 Average Jul-Dec 2018 Cagayan de Oro 4 days 25 days*1 14.5 days 18 days Increasing Pampanga 8 days 8 days 8.0 days 2 days Declining Agno 3 days 16 days*2 9.5 days 12 days Increasing Cagayan 63 days 31 days 47.0 days 164 days*3 Increasing Pasig-Laguna de Bay 42 days 42 days 42.0 days 68 days Increasing Notes: *1. Since there was a mistake in estimating the value in the last period for the Cagayan de Oro river basin, it was modified from 3 days to 25 days. *2. The value for Jan-Jun 2018 can’t be directly calculated because the number of recoveries is zero (it is impossible to be divided by denominator of zero). The above value of 16 days is exceptionally estimated as a value for one year from July 2017 to June 2018. *3. The sudden increase in the value of this period was due to aging of the entire FFWS for the Cagayan river basin. In such case, it is difficult to evaluate the effect of the project with this OVI. OVI-2: As of 1 February 2019, data storage is 51.0% for the overall period from January 2017 to December 2018. As the configuration of database has been properly established in late July 2018, the percentage has increased rapidly compared with 19.2% of the last period. The prospect on achievement is relatively high. The detailed progress of each river basin is summarized below.

River Basin Nos. of Target Data Storage (%): Jan 2017 – Dec 2018 Gauging Sta. Percent in Each River Basin Share in 5 River Basins Cagayan de Oro 10 0.0% *1 0.0% *1 Pampanga 27 88.4% 24.2% Agno 19 95.5% 18.3% Cagayan 10 90.1% 8.5% Pasig-Laguna de Bay 33 0.0% *1 0.0% *1 Total 99 --- 51.0% in total Note: *1. Data entry work for Cagayan de Oro and Pasig-Laguna de Bay river basins have not been started as of end-January 2019. OVI-3: The OVI was definitized by adding words indicating what is “operational status”. From the viewpoint of whether or not flood bulletin (FB) was issued, FFW service at the Cagayan de Oro river basin is considered operational and thus the project purpose was almost achieved. Although there was no large flood occurrence requiring FB issuance in this period, the RFFWC issued FB when the typhoon Vinta hit the target basin in December 2017. However, there is still room for improvement in issuing FB in terms of timing and contents. Efforts to improve the status will be continued through the project activities. In fact, MPRSD staff accumulated knowledge on FB issuance through the drills conducted by the Project in July and November 2018. Besides, verification results from the perspective of DAC criteria are summarized as follows: 1) Relevance: The framework of the Project coincides with the Country Assistance Policy for the Philippine of Japan (April 2012). Further, the output envisaged by the Project is appropriate in the light of PAGASA Modernization Program (2017-2019). The Project activities aim to strengthen FFW services in the 18 major river basins, which is one of the major targets of the Project and is mainstream of the PAGASA Modernization Program as well. Relevance is still high because development policy of the Philippines and the needs of target group have not been changed so far. 2) Effectiveness: Capacity of PAGASA HMD and target RFFWC on integrated data management/ utilization for FFWS would be consistently enhanced through implementation of the Project.

~~6 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

However, the values of OVI-1 for evaluating the project purpose fluctuate at every evaluation and therefore the achievement of project purpose may not be properly evaluated by the OVI-1 or may be expressed a little after the project period. On the other hand, the prospect on achievement from the viewpoints of OVI-2 and OVI-3 is relatively high. 3) Impact: The various products to be developed by the Project will be introduced to the RFFWC for the major river basins beyond the Project’s target river basins. Besides, the experiences in the target river basins and HMD through the project activities could be duplicated in the other river basins in future. For these reasons, the Project would contribute to the achievement of overall goal and therefore the Project will cause a positive impact. On the other hand, any negative impacts have not been anticipated so far. 4) Sustainability: The sustainability of the Project is expected to be assured in terms of political, organizational, financial and technical aspects. In particular, based on the review of the actual project activities conducted by three PWGs, the Project can be sustained so far and project performance is quite satisfactory. However, further enhancement of the Project activities is required with encouraging PWG members for more proactive participation of them.

1-5 Changes of Risks and Actions for Mitigation Although some of the following issues/ risks were improved gradually in this period, they have not been completely solved yet. The details are described in the section 2 below. 1) The PAGASA Modernization Act will deeply affect organizational structure of PAGASA. However, it takes a long time for the PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP) to be approved. 2) Repeated problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin may affect the quality of hydro-meteorological data as well as data acquisition. 3) The delay of JICS Project may negatively affect Project activities in the Tagoloan River basin. 4) The repeated delay in constructing a RFFWC building in El Salvador may negatively affect Project activities. 5) Recent security situation in Mindanao may cause the delay and/or limitation of activities in the target river basins. Actions undertaken by JICA expert team so far include situation monitoring, information gathering and facilitation through giving technical advices to PAGASA.

~~7 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

Budget and Management (DBM). 2) Based on the results of survey conducted by PAGASA, MPRSD relocated water level sensors and replaced batteries, etc. 3) Installation of equipment was finally completed. After commissioning test and staff training were conducted, data begun to reach RFFWC in November 2018. However, various problems have been already identified as stated in the section 2 below. 4) PAGASA is supervising the construction works, which commenced in September 2018 and are still on-going as of end-January 2019.

~~1-8 Progress of Environmental and Social Considerations (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

~~1-9 Progress of Considerations on Gender/Peace Building/Poverty Reduction (if applicable) Not applicable.~~

1-10 Other remarkable/considerable issues related/affect to the project (such as other JICA's projects, activities of counterparts, other donors, private sectors, NGOs etc.) 1) The JICA Preparatory Survey for the Project for Developing Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Cagayan de Oro River basin was completed in March 2018. After that, E/N (Exchange of Note) and G/A (Grant Agreement) were signed in June 2018. The detailed design including confirmation of sites was completed, while cost estimate is still on-going as of end-January 2019. Considering the election schedule of local governments, a stakeholders meeting should be done by July 2019. 2) PAGASA proposed two locally-funded projects for establishing an Integrated Hydrological Data Management Systems for Flood Forecasters (Software and Hardware) covering HMD and all the RFFWCs to be implemented in 2018. Considering this, the activity of an Integrated Hydrometeorological Database establishment needed to be redesigned in such a way that the mechanism of converting existing FFWS data into the format that can be dealt with by the software in real time shall be established. While the above projects were not implemented in 2018, the redesigned activity would be implemented using the software licenses that PAGASA had precedently acquired. 2 Delay of Work Schedule and/or Problems (if any) 2-1 Detail (1) PAGASA Modernization Act The PAGASA Modernization Act was approved and enacted on November 3, 2015 during the administration of the former President Benigno S. Aquino III. The PAGASA Modernization Program (PMP), which is duly contemplated to implement the Act covering the 3-year development program (2017-2019) of PAGASA, will affect entire operation of FFWS/ FFWSDO by HMD in terms of institution, budget, equipment and human resources development. Approval on the Implementation Rules and Regulation (IRR), which was initially submitted in February

~~8 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~2016, was secured in December 2017. On the other hand, the latest final draft of the PMP submitted in November 2018 by PAGASA is still under deliberation by DBM.~~

(2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin MPRSD continues to face problems in the monitoring devices and/or systems installed by two projects, namely 1) Twin Phoenix and 2) NDMI. The details of respective projects are as follows: 1) As of end-January 2019, four Twin Phoenix monitoring stations (Mambuaya, Dagumbaan, Taguanao and Basak) are still not properly transmitting data to MPRSD, though the situation was improved at three other stations (Cosina, Tikalaan and Tumalaong) in this period by replacing batteries and solar charger controller. 2) As of end-January 2019, the real-time data of NDMI stations cannot be viewed both at MPRSD and at Cagayan de Oro CDRRMD due to malfunction of the NDMI's FFAS (Flash Flood Alert System) GUI. This problem was initially reported in the Monitoring Sheet Ver.3 in July 2017 and has not been improved at all since then. (3) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Tagoloan River basin As mentioned in the clause 1-7 3), installation of the monitoring equipment was finally completed and data transmission from the gauging stations to RFFWC started in November 2018. However, as of end-January 2019, the system is not yet fully operated due to several problems as noted below: 1) One repeater station has not been installed and thus two stations are not transmitting data. 2) FFWS station names are not yet synchronized with official station names. 3) Some devices were incompletely delivered to gauging stations or RFFWC. (4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC The construction work of RFFWC building commenced in September 2018 after twists and turns described in the previous versions of Monitoring Sheet. At the time of preparing Monitoring Sheet Ver.5 in early August 2018, it was scheduled for completion in February 2019. However, as of end-January 2019, it was reported that the work progress is approximately 50% and the target completion month was changed to April 2019.

(5) Deteriorating security situation in Mindanao The security situation in Mindanao has not been improved. Project activities in the target river basins, such as flood warning issuance and dissemination drill, training of discharge measurement for PWG members, etc., are widely restricted.

(2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin 1) The major causes of remaining problems with the Twin Phoenix facilities are defective data loggers, pressure sensors and data logger batteries. 2) The malfunction of the NDMI's FFAS GUI is caused by software problem. However, after PAGASA issued a letter of endorsement to NDMI in April 2018, no definite answer has been provided so far by NDMI.

~~9 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

(3) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Tagoloan River basin 1) Guihean repeater station has not been installed because PAGASA is currently in the process of signing the collocation MoA with DICT. 2) The FFWS station names cannot be synchronized because the official names of the stations have not yet been assigned by PAGASA. 3) Incomplete or incorrect delivery was partially due to the contractor’s error. (4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC The delay occurred before construction is mainly due to i) insufficient site investigation, ii) lack of standard specification in PAGASA, and iii) changes in building design. On the other hand, the delay occurred after construction is attributed to the change of foundation works. The contractor found that the foundation design is not suitable for the site and redesigned it by themselves considering an effect on the existing MPRSD building as well. Thus, the construction work finally started in September 2018 and the work period also became longer than 180 days.

~~(5) Deteriorating security situation in Mindanao Peace negotiation between the government and rebel groups have not been completed.~~

(2) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River basin 1) It is necessary for Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC (or MPRSD) to solve the problems by replacing supplies such as loggers or batteries. 2) As a temporary measure, HMD is currently considering handling the GUI problem as part of the Tagoloan project so that all the data observed in the both river basins can be viewed with one integrated system at RFFWC. In parallel, it is necessary for HMD to negotiate with NDMI for solving the GUI problem considering future permanent utilization. (3) Problems with monitoring devices and systems in the Tagoloan River basin Causes of the respective problems have been clarified as mentioned above. HMD needs to properly instruct the contractor to improve matters.

~~(4) Delay in Constructing Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC MPRSD needs to supervise the construction work with the assistance of ETSD so that no further delay occurs.~~

~~10 PM Form 3-1 Monitoring Sheet Summary~~

~~3 Modification of the Project Implementation Plan 3-1 PO No modification.~~

4 Preparation of Gov. of Philippines toward after completion of the Project No particular action was made in this period. However, PAGASA is considering including necessary expenses in the 2020 budget for replicating the activities carried out in this project to the other river basins on a regular-work basis after completion of the Project.

~~II. Project Monitoring Sheet I & II as Attached~~

~~11 PM Form3-2 Monitoring Sheet I~~

~~Project Monitoring Sheet I （Revision of Project Design Matrix） Red fonts show the changes from Ver.5.~~

Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Version 6 Implementing Agency: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Dated February 19, 2019 Target Group: Staff of PAGASA Hydro-Meteorology Division (HMD) and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Period of Project: July 2016 – June 2019 (36 months) Project Site: PAGASA Headquarters and Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan River Center (RFFWC) Narrative Summary Objectively Verifiable Indicators Means of Verification Important Assumption Achievement Remarks Overall Goal 1. The average number of days required for restoring a trouble 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data ・ The River Center Project, which Mid-term of a flood forecasting system shows a declining trend in the 11 Monitoring aims at developing FFWS in the review team river basins, namely Pampanga, Agno, Bicol, Cagayan, Pasig- major river basins including recommended Laguna de Bay, Abra, Jalaur, Cagayan de Oro, Tagoloan, construction of river center in the 5th JCC Davao and Tagum-Libuganon river basins. building, installation of monitoring that CPs and Overall capacity of PAGASA on integral 2. Quality management of hydrometeorological data of the 11 2. Record of Hydrometeorological Data equipment, deployment of river JICA Experts review the data management/ utilization for Flood river basins is conducted at HMD in accordance with the quality Monitoring center staff and so forth, is necessity of Forecasting and Warning System (FFWS) management standards prepared by the Project. completed as scheduled. modifying the is enhanced. 3. At least 80% of hydrometeorological data of the 11 river 3. Integrated Database indicator of the basins are stored in the integrated database by applying a Overall Goal standard data format and quality management standards. before the 4. Flood forecasting and warning is operational (issuance of 4. Technical Reports before Ex-post Project ends. flood bulletins) at the 11 river basins. Evaluation

Project Purpose 1. The average number of days required for restoring a trouble 1. Record of Hydrometeorological Data ・ Necessary budget for phased 1. Jul-Dec 2018 period OVIs were of a flood forecasting system shows a declining trend in the 5 Monitoring development of RFFWCs is Declining: 1 river basin agreed in the river basins, namely the Cagayan de Oro, Pampanga, Agno, secured. Increasing: 4 river basins 4th JCC. Capacity of PAGASA HMD and target Cagayan and Pasig-Laguna de Bay river basins. ・ Necessary budget for operation/ However, the RFFWC on integral data management/ 2. At least 80% of hydro-meteorological data of the 5 river 2. Integrated Databasemaintenance of the existing 2. Data storage: 51.0% for the target river utilization for FFWS is enhanced. basins are stored in the integrated database by applying a RFFWCs is secured. period from Jan 2017 to Dec basins were standard data format and quality management standards. ・ Counterpart personnel who are 2018 (As of 1 Feb 2019) reviewed and 3.Flood forecasting and warning is operational (issuance of 3. Technical Reports before the Project trained by the Project do not 3. Flood bulletins were issued in modified in flood bulletins) at Cagayan de Oro river basin. termination transferred to other job. Dec 2017, but a little late. the 6th JCC.

Outputs 1. Capacity on formulation of FFWS 1.1 Draft roadmap and draft medium-term plan for 1-1 Project Report, draft mediun-term plan, ・ Necessary budget for phased 1.1: Final draft of roadmap and The related development Plan of PAGASA HMD is enhancement of FFWS are reviewed and finalized. draft roadmap development of RFFWCs is medium-term plan have been activities are enhanced. secured. prepared. being 2. Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on 2.1 A hydrometeorological database using the standard data 2-1 Interview of HMD・ Necessary budget for operation/ 2.1: Database has been performed quality management/ storage of the format is established and operated. maintenance of the existing established and is under toward the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced. RFFWCs and renewal of preparation for full-operation. achievement 2.2 Quality management standards are complied at HMD in 2-2 Interview of HMD, quality management equipment is secured. 2.2: The draft Quality Manage- of the handling hydro-meteorological data of Cagayan de standards ・ Counterpart personnel who are ment Standards have been respective Oro/Tagoloan and the existing 5 RFFWCs. trained by the Project do not prepared and are under trial. OVIs as 3. Organization/staffing and, 3.1 At least 2 number of RFFWCs are developed according to 3-1 Questionnaires to HMD and each RFFWC transferred to other job. 3.1: Development standards scheduled. equipment/facility of RFFWC are the draft development standards for staffing and ・ Security situation does not have been drafted and is under standardized according to the equipment/facilities. deteriorate significantly. review. development levels of FFWS. 3.2 At least 2 number of RFFWCs comply with the guidelines 3-2 Questionnaires to HMD and each 3.2: Draft guidelines have been for RFFWC operations RFFWCs prepared and are under trial. 3.3 Procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other 3-3 Questionnaires to HMD, minutes of 3.3: Procedures have been concerned organizations are agreed/adopted by LGUs meeting discussed and agreed among (Cagayan de Oro City and Tagoloan Municipality). concerned organizations. 4. Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of 4.1 Flood warning water levels at observation stations of 4-1 Interview of HMD, warning water level 4.1: Flood warning water levels Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers are established by HMD. report have been established. basins is enhanced. 4.2 Trainings on issuing flood warning are conducted for at 4-2 Interview of HMD, activity report 4.2: Trainings were conducted least 2 number of RFFWCs. twice at Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC. 5. Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5.1 Hydrometeorological data of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan 5-1 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan 5.1: Data of Twin Phoenix is RFFWC on data management for flood RFFWC are transmitted to HMD periodically according to the RFFWC, database of HMD transmitted to HMD in real-time. forecasting and warning is developed. guidelines. 5.2 Flood warning is issued according to the rules whenever 5-2 Interview of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan 5.2: Flood warnings were water level of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers reaches to RFFWC, flood bulletins issued based on warning level, the warning level. but a little late.

Activities Inputs Important Assumption 1-1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major river basins, and to extract The Japanese Side The Philippine Side problems in FFWS 1. JICA Experts 1. Counterpart Personnel ・ Newly developed standards/manuals are 1-2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major rivers (1) Team Leader / Flood Control / Flood (1) Project Manager approved/ adopted by concerned Forecasting & Warning (2) Hydrologist organizations. 1-3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for deciding priority of phased (2) Deputy Team Leader / River Management (3) Monitoring/ Communications ・ Counterpart personnel who are trained by developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers (3) Integral Data Management/Database Staff the Project do not transferred to other job. 1-4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS (4) Monitoring System/ Runoff Analysis (4) ICT Staff ・ Security situation does not deteriorate (5) Information & Communication/ Warning (5) Support Staff significantly. 1-5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS incl. budget estimation Notification ・ Monitoring equipment for the target rivers (6) Institutional Strengthening/ Human 2. Office space for the Project planed by JICS and NDMI is installed. 2-1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation data of PAGASA Resource Development including telephone, facsimile, internet services and other office 2-2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the existing FFWS/FFWSDO 2. Equipment essentials (in PAGASA ・ Desktop PC: 4 sets Headquarters and River Center) Pre-Conditions 2-3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned organizations ・ FTP server: 1 sets ・ Technical staff are assigned at target 2-4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of development level in the future, ・ Decoder: 2 sets 3. Expense necessary for RFFWC. expandability and efficiency ・ Large Monitor (40 inch): 1 set execution of the Project (customs ・ Multifunction printer: 1 set duty for equipment, 2-5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological data ・ Inkjet printer: 1 set remuneration/travel cost/ per diem 2-6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input the hydrometeorological data ・ Database software: none etc. for the counterpart Issues with the standard data format ・ GIS software: 1 set 1) The PAGASA Modernization Act 2-7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated hydrometeorological database ・ Program software: none 2) Repeated problems with monitoring devices ・ Current meter / Float: 1 set /1 lot and systems in the Cagayan de Oro River 2-8 To check malfunction of the existing FFWS observation/communication equipment basin 3. Local Subcontract 3) Problems with equipment installed in the 2-9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning existing FFWS observation/ communication ・ River Cross Section Survey：1 lot Tagoloan River basin equipment for budgeting by PAGASA ・ Discharge Measurement：1 lot 4) Delay in constructing a RFFWC building in 3-1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible problems of new RFFWCs El Salvador 3-2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information transmission at the time of flooding, 4. Training in Japan 5) Recent security situation in Mindanao and to propose efficient procedures for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs ・ Utilization of hydro-meteorological data on flood and river managements: 2 times Actions to be Taken 3-3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, facility design, data transmission 1) HMD and FPMD need to facilitate the from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications procedure. between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 2) All technical problems should be solved 3-4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist PAGASA’s internal monitoring on properly. compliance by each RFFWCs 3) All technical problems should be solved 3-5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and other concerned organizations at 5 properly. river basins with the existing FFWS, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through 4) MPRSD needs to facilitate the meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. implementation at a field level. 4-1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and hydrometeorological data 5) In parallel with collecting security transmission plan information, project activities in terms of 4-2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan schedule and approach are to be reconsidered RFFWC, and to establish flood warning water levels if the occasion arises. 4-3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins 4-4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data transmitted from RFFWC 5-1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD 5-2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically

Project Monitoring Sheet II (Revision of Plan of Operation) Red fonts show the changes from Ver.5. Version 6 Dated February 19, 2019 Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Monitoring Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Inputs Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡ ⅢⅣ

Expert 78910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 123456Mr. Hishinuma became unable to continue taking part in the project Plan Yoshihiro MOTOKI: Team Leader / Flood Management / Flood Forecasting and Warning due to transfer within a firm in April Actual 2018. The remaining parts of his Plan Hikaru SUGIMOTO: Deputy Team Leader / River Management assignment and tasks were Actual reallocated to the other members. Plan Minoru KURIKI: Integrated Data Management / Database Actual Plan Shiro HISHINUMA: Monitoring System / Hydrology Actual Plan Yoshiyuki SHINJI: Information & Communication / Warning Issuance Actual Plan Masaki ITO: Institutional Strengthening / Human Resources Development Actual Equipment 1) Procurement procedures for two Some equipment are Equipment for RFFWC Plan ■ desktop computers, one large planned to be installed were delivered to the Desktop Computers Actual ■ monitor and one GIS software were in the Cagayan de Oro/ MPRSD office instead. Plan ■ commenced in July 2018. They were Tagoloan RFFWC. Data Server Actual ■ delivered to MPRSD in Aug 2018. However the Plan ■ 2) It was determined that database construction of RFFWC Large Monitor Actual ■ software and program software are is delayed. Plan ■ not procured by the project because Multifunction machine (Printer/Photocopy) Actual ■ designing of database itself was no Plan ■ longer required as commercially Color Inkjet Printer Actual ■ available software owned by Plan ■ PAGASA was to be utilized. Database Software Actual 3) All the equipment to be procured Plan ■ by the Project have been delivered. GIS Software Actual ■ Plan ■ Program Software Actual Plan ■ Current Meter / Float Actual ■ Training in Japan Plan ■■ Training in Japan Actual ■■ In-country/Third country Training Plan Actual

Activities Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Responsible Organization Issue & Achievements Sub-Activities Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣ Japan GOP Countermeasures Output 1: Capacity on formulation of FFWS development plan of PAGASA HMD is enhanced 1.1 To collect and analyze data/information of current situation of 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ Completed river basins, and to extract problems in FFWS Actual ■■ 1.2 To decide components of FFWS by development level for 18 major ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■■■ Completed rivers Actual ■■■■■ 1.3 To hear opinions of concerned organizations such as DPWH for ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■ Completed deciding priority of phased developments of FFWS for 18 major rivers Actual ■ ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ 1.4 To develop and review draft roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS Almost finalized Actual ■■■□□□□■□□□■□□■□□□□■■□□■□□ 1.5 To develop and review medium-term plans for enhancement of FFWS ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□■ Almost finalized incl. budget estimation Actual ■■□□■■■□□□□□■■□□■□■ Output 2:Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on quality management/storage of the hydro-meteorological data is enhanced 2.1 To review data format of the existing hydrometeorological observation ○○◎○○ Plan ■ Completed data of PAGASA Actual ■ 2.2 To review data format from automatic monitoring stations of the ○○◎○○ Plan ■ Completed existing FFWS/FFWSDO Actual ■ 2.3 To confirm hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ Completed organizations Actual ■■ 2.4 To establish standard data format considering improvement of ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ □□□□□□□ Completed development level in the future, expandability and efficiency Actual ■■ 2.5 To establish standards for quality management of hydrometeorological ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ Under trial data Actual ■■■□□□□□ 2.6 To establish an integrated hydrometeorological database, and to input ○○◎○○ Plan ■■■■ On-going the hydrometeorological data with the standard data format Actual ■ ■■■□ ■■ 2.7 To apply the quality management standards to the integrated ○○◎○○ Plan ■■ On-going hydrometeorological database Actual ■ □□□ 2.8 To check malfunction of the existing observation/communication ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ Completed equipment Actual ■■ 2.9 To establish repair/improvement plan of malfunctioning observation/ ○○ ○◎ Plan ■■■ Completed communication equipment for budgeting by PAGASA Actual ■■ Output 3: Organization/staffing and, equipment/facility of RFFWC are standarized according to the development levels of FFWS 3.1 To study problems of the existing RFFWCs, and to analyze possible ◎○○○○○ Plan ■ Completed problems of new RFFWCs Actual ■ □ 3.2 To analyze problems in the existing procedures for information ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ transmission at the time of flooding, and to propose efficient procedures Completed Actual ■■■ for information transmission by utilizing RFFWCs 3.3 To draft development standards for observation equipment layout, ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ facility design, data transmission from automatic monitoring station to RFFWC, processing system in RFFWC, and data communications Draft prepared Actual ■■■■■■ □ ■■ between RFFWC and PAGASA headquarters according to the level of FFWS 3.4 To document guidelines for RFFWC operations, and to assist ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ Under trial PAGASA's internal monitoring on compliance by each RFFWCs Actual ■■ ■□□□■■■■□□□□■■□ 3.5 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at 5 river basins with the existing FFWS, Completed and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through meetings Actual ■■■ ■ □ ■ with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. Output 4: Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins is enhanced 4.1 To establish staffing plan, monitoring equipment layout plan and ○◎○○○○ Plan ■■■■■■ Draft prepared hydrometeorological data transmission plan Actual ■■■■□ ■■ ■ 4.2 To check H-Q curves and draft of flood warning water levels prepared ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWCs, and to establish flood warning Completed Actual ■□□□□□□□■■□□■■■□□□□□■□□□■□■ water levels 4.3 To conduct study on quality management of observed data at Cagayan ○○◎○ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ Completed de Oro and Tagoloan river basins Actual ■■□□□□□ 4.4 To conduct training on issuing FFWS warning by utilizing data ◎○○○○○ Plan ■■ Completed transmitted from RFFWC Actual ■■ Output 5: Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood forecasting and warning is developed 5.1 To produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and ○○ ◎ Plan ■□□□□□□■■■■■□□□□□□□■■■■■ Completed Tagoloan rivers, and to propose draft of flood warning water levels to HMD Actual ■□□□□□□□■■□□■■■□□□□□■□□□■□■ ○○ ◎ Plan ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ Partially 5.2 To transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Actual □□□□□□□ transmitted 5.3 To document procedures of information transmission to LGUs and ○○○ ◎ Plan ■■■ other concerned organizations at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river Completed basins, and to assist agreement and adoption of the procedures through Actual ■■■■ meetings with DPWH, LDRRMC, etc. 5.4 To conduct training on issuing flood warning to LGUs by utilizing ○◎○○ ○ Plan ■■ Completed observed data at RFFWC in collaboration with HMD Actual ■■ Plan Duration / Phasing Actual

Plan 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Monitoring Plan Remarks Issue Solution Actual ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢ Ⅳ Monitoring Plan ■■■■■■■■ Joint Coordination Committee Actual ■■■■■ ■ ■ Plan ■ Set-up the Detailed Plan of Operation Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Submission of Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■■■ ■■ Plan Monitoring Mission from Japan Actual ■ Plan Joint Monitoring Actual Plan Post Monitoring Actual Reports/Documents Plan ■ Work Plan Actual ■ Plan ■■■■■■ Monitoring Sheet Actual ■■■■ ■■ Plan ■ Prgress report Actual ■ Plan ■ Project Completion Report Actual Public Relations Plan ■■■■■■3rd media briefing will be held in PR Activities Actual ■■■■ June 2019. Plan ■■■ Project Brief Note Actual ■■ Plan ■■ ■ Seminar Actual ■■■ Attachment-3

~~Minutes of Meeting of JCC~~

~~Attachment-4~~

~~Project Brief Note~~

JICA Project Brief Note Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning ～ Improvement of hydrometeorological data management for issuing accurate & timely flood warning ～ June 2019

1. Project Background and Issues information under the national disaster management framework. The Philippine archipelago, located near the western edge 4 of the Pacific Ocean with population of 101 million In the Philippines, since the introduction of FFWS i n people1 , is in the direct path of seasonal typhoons and Pampanga River basin in 1973, FFWSs have been monsoon rains which bring weather disasters such as established in Agno, Bicol, Cagayan and Pasig-Marikina torrential rainfalls and floods. The damage due to typhoon River basins. In recent years, the government has been and torrential rainfall is significantly large, and around 20 under pressure to expand FFWSs across the country typhoons cross and/or approach annually, bringing about because typhoons hit the other areas, as seen in Tropical serious damage to lives and properties. Storm “Sendong (Washi)” in 2011, Typhoon “Pablo (Bopha)” in 2012 and so forth. However other than those 2 PAGASA , under the administrative supervision of five river basins among the 18 major river basins in the 3 DOST , is responsible for monitoring meteorological and Philippines, the issuance and dissemination of flood hydrological phenomenon which causes weather disasters warning with accurate and timely forecasting are and providing meteorological and hydrological challenging due to the limitation of rainfall and

1 Based on the 2015 Census 3 DOST: Department of Science and Technology 2 PAGASA: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical 4 FFWS: Flood Forecasting and Warning System Services Administration 1 hydrological monitoring stations as well as human Overall Goal : resources. Overall capacity of PAGASA on integrated data management/ utilization for Flood Forecasting In order to enhance the nationwide FFWS, PAGASA has and Warning System (FFWS) is enhanced. proceeded with the establishment of River Flood Project Purpose : Capacity of PAGASA Hydrometeorology (HMD) and Forecasting and Warning Centers (RFFWCs) which target River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center undertake flood forecasting and warning since 2013. (RFFWC) on integrated data management/utilization for FFWS is enhanced. Among the RFFWCs to be newly established, Mindanao, Outputs : where the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River basins are Output1: Capacity of formulation of FFWS development plan located, has higher priority due to the past flood damages of PAGASA HMD is enhanced. Output2: Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on quality and therefore the RFFWC’s facility and monitoring management/ storage of hydro‐meteorological equipment for the two river basins have been developed data is enhanced. Output3: Organization/ staffing and, equipment/ facility of prior to the other basins. RFFWC are standardized according to the development levels of FFWS. Output4: Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS of Cagayan de As the number of monitoring stations increases and Oro and Tagoloan river basins is enhanced. volume of hydrometeorological data dramatically Output5: Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/ Tagoloan RFFWC on data management for flood forecasting and expands in the near future, it is necessary to efficiently warning is developed. store and to improve the quality management for hydro- Activities : meteorological data at the PAGASA headquarters as well. Activities 1‐1 to 1‐5 (Output1) Activities 2‐1 to 2‐9 (Output2) Under such circumstances, the Government of the Activities 3‐1 to 3‐5 (Output3) Republic of the Philippines has requested the Government Activities 4‐1 to 4‐4 (Output4) Activities 5‐1 to 5‐4 (Output5) of Japan to implement the project of strengthening capacity of the integrated data management of flood Figure-1 Summarized Logical Framework forecasting and warning. The project was implemented Policy-1: Assistance in developing Roadmap and for three years from July 2016 to June 2019 based on the Medium-term Plans to expand FFWS with due agreement between PAGASA and JICA. considerations for the resources of PAGASA 2. Approach to Solve the Issues 1) Draft Roadmaps for enhancement of FFWS should be

developed with due consideration for PAGASA’s human (1) Logical Framework for the Project resources development plans as well as trends in donors’ The project shall be implemented based on the logical assistance. Besides, the PAGASA’s past annual budget, framework (Figure-1), which provides the overall goal, the future human resources plan, and the progress of the the project purpose, the expected five outputs and the River Center Project will be reviewed so as to enable the related activities. development of realistic Medium-term Plans.

(2) Basic Policies for the Five Outputs 2) Goals of phased developments of FFWS should be decided from two aspects, namely phased establishment The project set three basic policies after sorting out issues among the new 13 river basins and phased development related to the expected five outputs. Table-1 shows the of FFWS in the respective RFFWCs. relation between the basic policies and outputs. The respective policies are explained below. Policy-2: Establishment of integrated database with consideration for redundancy of FFWS data Table-1 Relation between Basic Policies and Outputs and overall network of PAGASA Basic Policy Output 1. For developing roadmaps / mid-term plans Output 1 & 3 1) PAGASA is introducing PUMIS5 for its overall works, 2. For establishing an integrated database Output 2 & 3 while this project will assist in establishing an integrated 3. For utilizing experiences in operating the Output 4 & 5 existing RFFWCs and accumulated database for FFWS considering the redundancy of FFWS technologies data and the role of overall network of PAGASA.

5 PUMIS: PAGASA Unified Meteorological Information System 2 2) Standard format for hydrometeorological data will be and failure in the past similar works accumulated by staff established considering whether the intended purpose of of HMD and the existing RFFWCs. data utilization is warning issuance (real time data) or 2) PAGASA HMD has implemented a lot of JICA projects planning and analysis for water resources development in the past. For example, through “the Project for (archived data). Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning System 3) Although a system to transmit hydrometeorological for Dam Operation (FFWSDO)” conducted in 2009-2012, data from river basins to PAGASA HMD6 via RFFWC is HMD has accumulated various skills and knowledges considered appropriate, attention should be given to status available for the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River of communication infrastructure and internet access, the basins as well. They include preparation of H-Q curve, number of personnel and their roles in RFFWC. As new determination of warning water level based on hydraulic RFFWCs are anticipated to have difficulties, phased calculation, flood warning dissemination drill, etc. These means of managing and sharing data should be clarified. skills may be effectively utilized for this project.

Policy-3: Assistance in utilizing know-how on (3) Implementation Structure operation of the existing RFFWCs and The project implementation structure is presented in experiences through the past projects Figure-2. Besides PAGASA HMD and RFFWCs, which 1) Among the activities for Output 4, planning works for are defined as C/P in the R/D, other concerned divisions staffing, monitoring equipment layout, data transmission, of PAGASA are also involved in “Project Working Group etc. will be performed with sufficient attention given to (PWG)”. The PWG is divided into three sub-groups. The effectively utilizing experiences including both success members of each sub-group jointly perform the project activities on a routine basis.

~~Figure-2 Project Implementation Structure~~

~~6 HMD: Hydro-meteorological Division 3 3. Result of Practicing the Approach Activity 1-3~~

The following activities for the respective expected In order to decide the priority for phased development of outputs 1 to 5 were conducted over a 36-month period FFWS in the 18 major river basins, the views of relevant from July 2016 to June 2019. agencies were heard as summarized below:  PAGASA: More developed river basins should be (1) Activities for Output 1 high-prioritized. The basins where development is Activity 1-1 advanced can be viewed as areas where flood damages were larger in the past. The current situations of 18 major river basins were  DPWH7 : Considerations are given to request from analyzed. The analysis included the hydrometeorological DPWH regional offices and regional equality as well monitoring situation as well as operational status of the as 56 high-priority basins examined by NAFRA8. existing FFWS. Issues on future enhancement of the FFWS were also identified. Activity 1-4

The results were reported in Baseline Survey Report The draft Roadmap for Setting of planning parameters (September 2016) and used for various project activities. enhancement of FFWS was Development plans of prepared based on the respective river basins Activity 1-2 results of Activities 1-1 to Study on development priority 1-3. The procedure is Review in each priority group Based on the basic understanding that staged development shown in Figure-4. is effective for enhancing FFWS development, FFWS Preparation of draft Roadmap Figure-4 Procedure of components and their development goals were decided. After development plans of Roadmap Preparation each basin were prepared, the 18 major river basins were FFWS comprises 7 components (+1: RFFWC building): grouped into A/B/C according to priority in order to 1) monitoring network, 2) data management, 3) data equalize the amount of transfer, 4) flood forecasting, 5) issuance of warning annual budget (Figure-5). information, 6) warning dissemination and 7) staffing and A timeline chart showing human resources development, as presented in Figure-3. development goals by each stage was created for each basin. The target year when all 18 river basins complete Stage 3 was set at the year 2030.

~~The contents of plan were updated in harmony with the ongoing development~~

Figure-5 Grouping of progress and finalized as Prioritized River Basin Figure-3 Seven Components of FFWS the Roadmap. The development level was set at three stages in the Activity 1-5 aspects of possibility of implementation and updating of plans by CP. The goals to be attained at each level (stage) Medium-term Plans were prepared based on the were examined for each component. Roadmap. Required actions for each component at each stage in terms of the seven river basins belonging to the group A were examined and the costs were preliminarily estimated. After annual investment plans are subsequently examined, the Medium-term Plans were finalized.

7 DPWH: Department of Public Works and Highways 8 NAFRA: Nationwide Flood Risk Assessment and the Flood Mitigation Plan for the Selected Areas (March 2008, JICA) 4 (2) Activities for Output 2 Activity 2-5 Quality Management Standards (QMS) to be applied to Activity 2-1 overall management of hydrometeorological data in The questionnaire of the following contents was prepared PAGASA were formulated. Considering 1) quality-built and distributed to concerned divisions of PAGASA. observation, 2) quality control in a limited time, and 3) functional advancement of FFWSs based on quality-  File format presently used improved data, QMS comprising “QMS 1: Observation”,  In-situ data, Remotely-sensed data “QMS 2: Real Time Data”, and “QMS 3: Archive Data”  Observation frequency/ division/ purpose, were formulated. Data transmission method, Data users  System/ Database/ Device  Advantage/ Disadvantage of file format

Activity 2-2 Data format used for automatic monitoring stations of the existing FFWS was reviewed. In addition to FFWS in the five river basins, FFWSDO and two systems developed by the other donors in the Cagayan de Oro river basin were surveyed. The results were used for Activity 2-4. Figure-6 Quality Management Standards Activity 2-3 Activities 2-6 / 2-7 Hydrometeorological data format required by the concerned organizations was confirmed. PAGASA shares The Project established an integrated hydrometeorological meteorological data internationally by converting from database in PAGASA, and input data into the database by CSV to XML format. On the other hand, the island applying the standard data format (Activity 2-4) and the country of the Philippines may not receive international QMS (Activity 2-5). request for hydrological data. Related domestic The activity was redesigned in such a way that, under the organizations that use FFW normally receive flood condition that AQUARIUS were going to be introduced, information in a text format and the need of using as to establish the mechanism of converting existing observation data per se is not high. When requested for FFWS data into the format that can be dealt with by academe or private business, hydrologic data have been AQUARIUS in real time. This allows AQUARIUS in provided in CSV format. RFFWCs to function as an integrated database immediately after its introduction. Activity 2-4 Standard data format was established considering future Activities 2-8 / 2-9 expandability and efficiency. Since PAGASA staff is Malfunction of the monitoring/communication equipment familiar to the exchange/use of CSV format, the CSV is in the PAGASA’s existing FFWS was surveyed and then to be used in the standard format. repair/ improvement plans for them were prepared as PAGASA has started limited use of AQUARIUS as data outlined in Table-2. The survey was conducted in October management software, which is under consideration of 2016 for the Pampanga, Agno and Cagayan RFFWCs. wide introduction to RFFWCs in the future. By selecting Table-2 Contents of Repair Plans for the Existing FFWS the data input format of AQUARIUS system as the Pampanga RFFWC Agno RFFWC Cagayan RFFWC standard data format, efficient data input is expected and 1) Interference at 1) FFWS server 1)Outdated telemetry Arayat G.S. 2) CSV files equipment the capacity of AQUARIUS can be maximized. 2) Vandalized 3) Generator at 2) Expansion of AQUARIUS can be flexible in dealing with input data Mayapyap G.S. Cuyapo repeater gauging stations 3) FFWS server station 3) Adoption of X- structure and therefore it was judged that the 4) CSV files band radar rain expandability in other system can also be secured. 5) Expansion of gauge gauging stations

5 (3) Activities for Output 3 Activity 3-4 Guidelines for RFFWC operations was prepared. Table-5 Activity 3-1 presents the composition. It was applied on a trial basis Through studying problems and performance of the for half a year at 11 RFFWCs. Monitoring on compliance existing RFFWCs, possible problems of new RFFWCs to by each RFFWC was carried out, and then it was finalized be established in the 13 river basins were analyzed. Table- by reflecting lessons learned from the trail application. 3 summarizes major issues by output. Table-5 Composition of Guidelines for RFFWC Operations Table-3 Analysis of Existing RFFWC Issues Chapter Title Major Contents Output Major Issues Found in the Existing RFFWCs 1) Introduction to the Concept / Outline of RFFWC establishment / Output1  Little accumulation of planning-related documents Guidelines Objective and Components of FFW  Poor transplantation of experiences in planning 2) Basin Monitoring Operation status of Flood Watch or Non-Flood  Difficult coordination between HMD and PRSD Watch Status / Data collection / Post-flood investigation / M&R9 of Monitoring Facilities Output2  Limited electronical data sharing 3) Data Management Data Transmission / Data Storage, Quality Check  No distinction between zero value and missing and Processing / Peripheral Equipment in  Improper functioning of observation devices RFFWC / M&R9 of Data Management Facilities Output 3  Obsolete and non-functional telemetric systems 4) Maintenance & Maintenance Policy / Maintenance Service /  Capacity strengthening for new technologies Repair of Telemetry Inspection / Tools and Equipment for  Maintenance of telemetry system System Facilities Maintenance / Spare Parts / Log Book  Coordination between HMTS and ICT group 5) Flood Forecasting General Procedures for Flood Forecasting / Flood Forecasting / Warning Criteria Activity 3-2 6) Flood Warning Type of Flood-related Information / Flood Issuance and Warning Issuance / Contents and Format of The current status of dissemination procedures for flood Dissemination Flood Warning / Flood Warning Dissemination 7) Organizations and Organization for Operation of FFW / Duties and information were analyzed through interview, documents, Staffing for FFW Responsibilities / Budgetary Management / Service Reporting etc. Table-4 summarizes key points of the analysis.

Table-4 Study on Effective Information Dissemination Activity 3-5 Key Issue Improvement for Effective Dissemination In order to document standard procedures of information Unattended Fax  To assign personnel to be on duty Machine during period of calamities transmission from RFFWC to LGUs, etc., 1) route and Communication  To utilize a combination of plural timing, 2) contents type, and 3) communication tool were Failure communication methods Delay in SMS  To consider SMS as a back-up or for examined. As for 3), matrix comparison on each tool and Delivery redundancy evaluation item, which are listed in Table-6, was made. Technical Terms  To use simple/dialect expressions in Flood Message  To automate preparation process Table-6 Comparison of Communication Tools Communication Tool Evaluation Item Activity 3-3  DICT Intra-network VoIP  Availability  DICT Intra-network Email  Dependency on Telecom Development standards according to the level of FFWS in  Public/Mobile Phone Infrastructure terms of equipment and facility were prepared. Contents  Fax  Broadband Capacity  Mobile SMS  Interactivity of development for telemetric FFWS were examined from  Internet Email  Reliability in disasters level 1 to level 3. Among levels, development contents of  UHF/VHF Radio  Recurring Cost and  Satellite Phone Payment level 3 are outlined as follows:

(4) Activities for Output 4 Level 3: Hydrological data become versatile through adopting remote sensing technologies such as X-band radar. Data transfer is more sophisticated with higher data transmission Activity 4-1 speed. Either IP-VPN or private IP radio links will reinforce redundancy with service of the DICT network. Real-time Staffing, monitoring equipment and hydrometeorological hydrological data sharing can be maintained 24-hours with a data transmission for the Cagayan de Oro / Tagoloan high reliability and availability between RFFWC and HMD. The hydrological data verified and stored automatically in RFFWC were studied. The monitoring equipment and hydrological database will enable sophisticated flood analysis data transmission for the Cagayan de Oro river basin were and forecasting at HMD as well as RFFWC. elaborated in accord with the study results of “Preparatory

9 M&R: Maintenance and Repair 6 Survey on the Project for Developing FFWS for Cagayan Activity 4-4 / 5-4 de Oro River Basin” as presented in Figure-7. The drill was conducted twice after comprehensively Monitoring Station VHF Radio Telemetric Link taking into account the intent of both Activities 4-4 and 5- Legend VHF Repeater 4. The 1st drill was conducted in July 2018 with particular VHF RadioLink VHF Store & Forward Link RW‐1 Microwave Radio Link emphasis on warning dissemination between the agencies RW‐2 CDO RFFWC dealing with flood information in the Cagayan de Oro and RW‐3 TN Tagoloan river basins. In addition to MPRSD, several RW‐6 XR‐1 R‐8 R‐9 region-X offices and LGUs participated in the activity. RW‐4 RW‐7 The 2nd drill was conducted in November 2018 with a R‐10 TN focus more on warning issuance. RW‐5 XR‐2 Each scenario of weather disturbance and associated

R‐11 response was drawn up based on the typhoon Vinta, which R‐12 R‐13 hit the target area in December 2017, as a model event. Figure-7 Monitoring Devices Installation and Data Transmission Plans for the Cagayan de Oro River Basin (5) Activities for Output 5 Activity 4-2 / 5-1 Activity 5-2 H-Q curves and flood warning water levels (FWWL) for In order to transmit hydrological data to the integrated the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins were set. database of HMD, several different methods were studied: By using the outputs of river cross section survey and a) Prepare a CSV file in Standard Format to be manually discharge measurement, H-Q curves at four stations for uploaded onto AQUARIUS in a periodical batch the Cagayan de Oro river basin and two stations for the process; Tagoloan river basin were prepared. FWWLs were set b) Convert the automatically transmitted data in the based on the river channel capacity of 40% (Alert), 60% PUMIS format into hourly CSV data format and (Alarm) and 80% (Critical) as presented in Figure-8. append on the Hot Folder of AQUARIUS through the FTP server; and c) Automatic appending using AQUARIUS Acquisition API (Application Programming Interface).

The method a) is practical and being implemented. The method b) was considered not efficient because the data are assembled in a file and then dissembled again. The Figure-8 H-Q Curves and Preliminary FWWLs (at Pelaez) method c) is considered most prospective and, as of June Activity 4-3 2019, being tested by the vendor of Twin Phoenix Project.

Over the whole project period, data were not properly Activity 5-3 acquired from the existing FFWSs of the Cagayan de Oro Standard procedures of flood information dissemination river basin before implementing quality management of in the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins was “observed” data. documented and improved through discussions in the drill On the other hand, a study was conducted to demonstrate activities conducted in Activity 4-4 / 5-4. the possibility of checking the quality of observed water- The procedure defined recipients of flood warning from level data using data obtained during the typhoon Vinta the RFFWC, flow of information dissemination, priority (Dec 2017). Assuming that the rainfall intensity for the of disseminating transactions, communication tools, etc. time of concentration is correct, water level data can be focused on the Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins. estimated reasonably well. If the observed water level data is vastly different from the estimated one, the observed data is likely to be erroneous.

~~7 4. Findings and Lessons from the Project (2) Respective Activities~~

The following are findings and lessons from the project Stimulation of Ownership Mind implementation. There was a need to prepare the Roadmap for respective (1) Common to All Activities 18 river basins, and work efficiency was required for such huge work volume. Therefore, the work was proceeded by Collaborative Works with CP through PWG each member in parallel to save time and to share the work load. This ingenious deepened CP’s understanding of the In order for each CP to actively participate in the project planning method and fostered their ownership mind. activities, aiming at effective technology transfer, three PWGs were organized by expertise. Consideration was Integrated Database Establishment given to collaborative works among PWG members in the Observation data of existing FFWSs are transmitted to regular PWG meetings in terms of information collection, HMD in different formats. While data integration will be discussion, product preparation, presentation and so forth. achieved by linking AQUARIUS in the future, until such Public Relations Activities in the Target Areas date there would be no progress, unless any actions are taken. Thus, without changing the data formats used in A poster and a brochure were created for distribution to each FFWS, a mechanism to convert the data format when the concerned organizations in the target areas. In addition uploading onto the HMD’s AQUARIUS was adopted. to using a lot of illustration and easy-to grasp expressions, they were translated into Visayan, which is local dialect. It is only a desk theory that data integration would be readily achieved for the existing system by preparing a Setting of OVIs for Project Purpose standard format and a container of database. It is necessary to incorporate, from the conceptual phase of the Since the project does not include provision or repair of project, a process of integrating existing systems, without monitoring equipment, the objectively verifiable indicator stopping them, into one system with time and care. (OVI) for improving data acquisition, which had been set in the initial PDM, would be hardly achieved. Thus, the New Technologies in Warning Dissemination modified OVI was defined as a time required for restoring a system trouble so as evaluate efforts and improvement CP should be more familiarized with the technology of 10 of actions to be taken by PAGASA staff. recent warning dissemination in the Philippines. EWBS uses terrestrial digital TV and MEAS11 uses cellar phone Prioritized Employment of Local Contractors as a means of dissemination. PAGASA must know how their FFW services will be related to these technologies. Track records and reputation in other agencies were also Therefore, tutorials for such technologies were conducted researched for preparing a short-list of local contractors in the PWG and JCC meetings for their understanding. that are familiar with the situation of the target river basin. Staff Deployment Plan of RFFWC Linkage between Activities and Training in Japan Appropriate staff deployment is essential in order that the In preparing the training program, linkage with project developed RFFWC could fulfill their tasks. In addition, it activities was taken into account. Further, attendant JICA is required to formulate a plan with important views on Expert(s) cooperated for better understanding by the current issues of the existing RFFWC in terms of the supplemental explanation in light with the project context. present staff capacity and training for the next generation. Involvement of Mindanao CP Members In planning stage-wise staff deployment according to the Teleconferencing system was used in PWG meetings so RFFWC development stage, it is essential to formulate a that Mindanao members can participate in discussions. sustainable plan by taking account of, for new RFFWC, Besides, PWG meetings were timed to coincide with JCC realizable staffing and training and, for existing RFFWC, or seminar considering their trip to Manila. training of junior staff in addition to staff expansion.

~~10 EWBS: Emergency Warning Broadcast System 11 MEAS: Mobile Emergency Alert System 8 Attachment-5~~

~~List of Technical Cooperation Products~~

~~Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning in the Republic of the Philippines~~

~~List of Technical Cooperation Products~~

~~No.1 : Roadmap for Enhancement of Flood Forecasting and Warning System~~

~~No.2 : Medium-term Plans for Enhancement of Flood Forecasting and Waning System~~

~~No.3 : Standard Hydro-meteorological Data Exchange Format for Flood Forecasting and Warning System~~

~~No.4 : Quality Management Standards for Hydro-meteorological Data of Flood Forecasting and Warning System~~

~~No.5 : Standard Procedure on Operation and Maintenance of Hydro-meteorological Database~~

~~No.6 : Rehabilitation Plans of Telemetry Equipment for Existing Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems~~

~~No.7 : Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination from River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center~~

~~No.8 : Development Standards for Flood Forecasting and Warning System~~

~~No.9 : Operational Guidelines on River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center~~

~~No.10 : Staffing and Facility Plans for Flood Forecasting and Warning System in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins~~

~~No.11 : H-Q Curves and Flood Warning Water Levels of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins~~

~~No.12 : Quality Management Procedure for Hydro-meteorological Data in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins~~

~~No.13 : Standard Procedure of Flood Information Dissemination in Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins~~

~~Attachment-6~~

~~Flowchart of Project Implementation~~

Year CY2016 CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 Work Place HW 1 Field Work HW 2 Month 5678910 11 12 1 2 3 45678910 11 12 1 2 3 45678910 11 12 1 2 3 456 7 Updating of Overseas Training Brief Note▽ △ Brief △ △ Outcome Note W/P P/R Project ▽ Updateing of Brief Cpmpletion ◆ △ ◆ ◆ ◆ ◆ Monitoring Sheets/ Brief Note Note▽ Report Ver.1 Baseline Syurvey Ver.2 Ver.3 ◆ Ver.5 Ver.6 Report Ver.4 Seminar 3 ◎ ◎ Conferennce and Seminar ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ JCC JCC JCC JCC Seminar 1 JCC JCC Seminar 2 JCC JCC River Cross Section Survey Sub-contract Works Discharge Discharge Measurements Collection and Preparation and Preparation and Preparation and arrangement of existing 0-1 6-1 Preparation and Preparation and Preparation and 6-1 6-1 discussion on 6-1 6-1 discussion on discussion on data and information discussion on 6-1 discussion on discussion on 6-2 Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring Sheet Assistance in Study on basic policy, Assistance in holding JCC Baseline Assistance in contents and methodology 0-２ 0-5 6-2 Assistance in Assistance in 6-2 6-2 holding JCC Survey 6-2 6-2 holding JCC of the Project holding JCC 6-4 holding JCC 6-4 Assistance in holding JCC Preparation of Preparation of Preparation of Establishment Progress Report Completion Work plan and Works common to all outputs of JCC and Conduct of Report 0-3 Technology 6-3 6-3 6-2 assistance to 6-3 6-3 progress Transfer Plan 6-3 holding Conduct of Conduct of monitoring regularly Conduct of Conduct of progress progress Submission, progress progress monitoring 0-4 6-6 monitoring explanation and monitoring monitoring discussion of Work 6-7 6-6 6-7 6-6 Holding of Seminar Overseas Holding of Holding of Holding of 6－8 Procurement of Seminar Training of CP Seminar Seminar Equipment

Activities related to Ouput 1 Extraction of Issues in 18 Preparation and Review of 1-1 Major River Basins 1-4 Roadmap for 1-4 【Output 1】 Enhancement of FFWS Capacity on formulation of FFWS Developpment Plan of PAGASA HMD is enhanced. 1-2 1-5 1-5

Preparation and Review of Components of FFWS Interviews for Setting of Medium-Term Plan for by Development Levels 1-3 Enhancement of FFWS Prioritization Reflect the results of activities for including Budget Estimation Outputs 4 & 5 Review Data Activities related to Ouput 2 Establish Standard Format Format of the Considering Improvement of Establish Standards for Quality Existing 2-1 Development Level in the Future, Management of 【Output 2】 Hydrometeorologica Expandability and Efficiency Hydrometeorological Data Capacity of PAGASA and RFFWC on l Observation Data of PAGASA 2-6 Establish an Integrated Hydrometeorological Database, and to Input the quality management/ storgae of the 2-2 2-4 2-5 hydrometeorological data is Review Data Hydrometeorological Data with the Standard Data Format enhanced. Format from Automatic 2-7 Apply the Quality Management Standards to the Integrated Hydrometeorological Monitoring Stations 2-3 of the Existing 2-8 Database FFWS/FFWSDO Planning of Rehabilitation Confirm Hydrometeorological Investigation on 2-9 Programs for Existing RFFWCs Data Format Required by the Equipment Conditions Concerned Organizations of Existing RFFWC Activities related to Output 3 Investigation Operation Manuals for Establishment of Flood and Analysis Forecast and Warning Systems in Accordance with 【Output 3】 on Problems development of RFFWC involved in the 3-1 Organization/ staffing and equipment/ Existing as well facility of RFFWC are standardized as New 3-3 according to the development levels 3-4 Monitoring of RFFWC Operation in Accordance with Operation Manuals of FFWS. Problem Analysis and Effective 3-2 Guidelines of Issuance of Flood Warnings to Local Government Method of Flood 3-5 3-5 Warning Agencies Feed back the Dissemination monitoring results Activities related to Output 4 Preparation of Staff Deployment Plan, Monitoring 4-1 Devices Installation Plan and Hydrometeorological Data Transmission Plan in Pilot River Basins 【Output 4】 Capacity of PAGASA HMD on FFWS 4-2 Check of H-Q Curves and Draft of Flood Warning Water Levels Prepared by Cagayan de Oro/Tagoloan RFFWC, and Establish Flood Warning Water Levels of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan river basins is enhanced. 4-3 Conduct Study on Quality Management of Observed Data at Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan River Basins

◎ ◎ Dissemination Practice of Flood Warning Based 4-4 4-4 on the Data Forwarded from RFFWC Activities related to Output 5 5-1 Produce H-Q curves at observation stations of Cagayan de Oro and Tagoloan rivers, and propose to HMD 【Output 5】 Capacity of Cagayan de Oro/ 5-2 Transmit hydrometeorological data to HMD periodically Tagoloan RFFWC on data ◎ ◎ management for flood foreacting and Operation Manuals for Warning Issuances to Local Dissemination Practice of Flood Warning for the Local 5-3 5-4 5-4 warning is developed. Government Agencies from Pilot RFFWC Government based on the Data Obtained at RFFWC

567 8 9 101112 1234567 8 9 101112 1234567 8 9101121234567 Rainy season in the Pilot River basin Report W/P：Work Plan、P/R：Progress Report、PC/R：Project Completion Report Source：JICA Expert Team Meeting JCC：Joint Coordination Committee Attachment-7

~~Schedule of JICA Expert Team~~

~~Planned and Actual Schedule of JICA Expert Team~~

Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Contract Period Nos. Total Total Position 2016 2017 2018 2019 of Trip M/D M/M JJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JAS Yoshihiro MOTOKI: Team Leader / Flood Plan 10 345 11.50 (75 days) (45 days) (30 days) (30 days) (30 days) (30 days) (15 days) (30 days) (30 days) (30 days) Management / Flood 7/4-9/16 11/1-12/15 2/1-3/2 7/12-8/10 11/8-12/7 1/9-2/7 7/20-8/17 11/4-30 2/7-3/8 5/22-6/20 Forecasting and Actual 10 356 11.87 Warning (75 days) (45 days) (30 days) (30 days) (30 days) (30 days) (29 days) (27 days) (30 days) (30 days) Hikaru SUGIMOTO: Plan 10 255 8.50 Deputy Team (15 days) (45 days) (30 days) (30 days) (30 days) (15 days) (30 days) (15 days) (15 days) (30 days) Leader / River 7/4-11,7/21-8/12 11/15-22,11/29-12/15 6/28-7/27 11/12-12/5 1/14-2/3 7/12-8/15 11/4-30 1/17-2/15 5/22-6/20 Management Actual 10 1/10-2/12 287 9.57 (31 days) (25 days) (34 days) (30 days) (24 days) (21 days) (35 days) (27 days) (30 days) (30 days)

Minoru KURIKI: Plan 9 324 10.80 Integrated Data (75 days) (45 days) (45 days) (30 days) (30 days) (30 days) (24 days) (30 days) (15 days) Management / 7/4-9/16 11/1-12/15 1/15-2/28 7/3-8/1 11/8-12/7 1/11-2/3 7/12-8/10 11/11-30 5/27-6/20 Database Actual 9 324 10.80 (75 days) (45 days) (45 days) (30 days) (30 days) (24 days) (30 days) (20 days) (25 days)

Shiro HISHINUMA: Plan 8 237 7.90 (45 days) (30 days) (25 days) (45 days) (20 days) (30 days) (30 days) (12 days) Monitoring System / 7/20-9/2 10/11-11/9 7/5-12,20-8/10 11/1-12/6 1/8-2/7 Hydrology Actual 5 172 5.73 Works in the Philippines (45 days) (30 days) (30 days) (36 days) (31 days)

Yoshiyuki SHINJI: Plan 10 285 9.50 Information & (60 days) (45 days) (30 days) (30 days) (15 days) (30 days) (15 days) (15 days) (15 days) (30 days) Communication / 7/10-9/7 10/17-11/30 1/17-2/15 7/3-8/1 11/8-11/22 1/8-2/7 7/15-8/3 11/11-25 1/10-30 5/27-6/19 Warning Issuance Actual 10 291 9.70 (60 days) (45 days) (30 days) (30 days) (15 days) (31 days) (20 days) (15 days) (21 days) (24 days) Masaki ITO: Institutional Plan 10 225 7.50 (45 days) (30 days) (30 days) (15 days) (30 days) (15 days) (15 days) (15 days) (15 days) (15 days) Strengthening / 7/31-9/13 11/10-12/9 2/1-2/25 7/9-7/29 11/9-12/6 1/16-31 7/17-8/2 11/12-24 2/12-28 6/3-15 Human Resources Actual 10 225 7.50 Development (45 days) (30 days) (25 days) (21 days) (28 days) (16 days) (17 days) (13 days) (17 days) (13 days) Plan 1671 55.70 Sub- toal Actual 1655 55.17

Yoshihiro MOTOKI: Team Leader / Flood Plan 16 0.80 (8 days) (8 days) Management / Flood 6/22-25,27-30 Forecasting and Actual 16 0.80 Warning (8 days) (8 days) Hikaru SUGIMOTO: Plan 40.20 Deputy Team (4 days) Leader / River Management Actual 4 0.20 (4 days)

~~Minoru KURIKI: Plan 10 0.50 Integrated Data (6 days) (4 days) Management / 6/23-24,27-30 Database Actual 10 0.50 (6 days) (4 days)~~

~~Yoshiyuki SHINJI: Plan 60.30 Information & (6 days) Works in Japan Communication / 7/4-9 Warning Issuance Actual 60.30 (6 days)~~

~~Shuji HIROTA: Plan 10 0.50 (10 days) Counterpart Training 5/8-12,16-19,22 in Japan (1) Actual 10 0.50 (10 days)~~

~~Hikaru SUGIMOTO: Plan 10 0.50 (10 days) Counterpart Training 6/20-22,25-27,7/2-5 in Japan (2) Actual 10 0.50 (10 days)~~

~~Plan 56 2.80 Sub- Legend: Actual 21 Plan toal Actual 56 2.80~~

~~Plan 58.50 Total Actual 57.97~~

~~Reports △△△ W/P P/R PC/R Monitoring Sheet △ △△△△△ Ver.1 Ver.2 Ver.3 Ver.4 Ver.5 Ver.6 Attachment-8~~

List of Equipment List of Purchased Equipment Project Title: Project for Strengthening Capacity of Integrated Data Management of Flood Forecasting and Warning Country: Philippines (As of end-May 2019) Acquisition Price Acquisition Handling after Equipment / Instrument Specification / Product No. Quantity Location Status Remarks Price Currency JPY Equivalent Date the Project

~~Current Meter MCM-003-S001 1 435,000 JPY 435,000 2016/7/15 PAGASA(MPRSD)-CTRFFWC In-service Transfer to CP~~

Float Draft length 50cm 100 80,000 JPY 80,000 2016/7/15 N/A (consumables) Others consumables and used Transfer to CP Fuji Xerox, DocuCentre JICA Expert Team's Office Multifunction Machine 1 180,000 PHP 402,732 2016/8/11 In-service Transfer to CP SC2020 (PAGASA-HMD) JICA Expert Team's Office Color Inklet Printer EPSON, L220 Inkjet Printer 1 7,595 PHP 16,513 2016/7/19 In-service Transfer to CP (PAGASA-HMD) Decoder JRC Printer Data Decoder 1 330,000 PHP 748,678 2018/1/15 PAGASA-HMD In-service Transfer to CP

Desktop Computer HP Pavilion 550-137D 1 76,600 PHP 173,784 2018/1/24 PAGASA-HMD In-service Transfer to CP Lenovo System X3250 M5 FTP Server 1 198,900 PHP 451,248 2018/1/29 PAGASA-HMD In-service Transfer to CP 1u8600SAS APC Smart-UPS C 1500VA UPS for FTP Server 1 29,500 PHP 66,927 2018/1/24 PAGASA-HMD In-service Transfer to CP LCD 230V (SMC1500i) OS for FTP Server MS Windows 10 Pro 1 52,470 PHP 108,069 2018/3/1 PAGASA-HMD In-service Transfer to CP

~~GIS Software ArcGIS for Desktop 1 152,300 PHP 313,363 2018/7/29 PAGASA(MPRSD)-CTRFFWC In-service Transfer to CP~~

~~Desktop Computer ASUS, PRIME B250M-A 2 168,940 PHP 353,073 2018/8/5 PAGASA(MPRSD)-CTRFFWC In-service Transfer to CP~~

~~Large Monitor LG 43SE3KD 1 44,600 PHP 93,211 2018/8/5 PAGASA(MPRSD)-CTRFFWC In-service Transfer to CP~~