Trade Liberalization and the Growth of Transport Services in Bangladesh: an Environmental Impact Assessment Study for Dhaka City

DRAFT1

Trade Liberalization and the Growth of Transport Services in Bangladesh: An Environmental Impact Assessment Study for Dhaka City

A.K.M. Nazrul Islam2

Fahmida Khatun3

Presented at:

ARTNeT/ABDI Reforming Services for Inclusive and Sustainable Development of Asia and the Pacific

11-12 October 2010

Bali, Indonesia

1 Please don’t quote. 2 Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Dhaka, e‐mail: [email protected] 3 Head of Research, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Dhaka, e‐mail: [email protected]

Introduction

Trade, investment and services trade liberalization in Bangladesh under the WTO regime are perceived to have positive impact in the economy through generation of employment and income opportunities and expansion of economic bases. This in turn has contributed to higher GDP growth, increased remittances and reserves and technological upgradation. Against such positive notion, it is also believed that such growth has been accompanied by several negative externalities such as environmental degradation. One of several manifestations of liberalization‐led growth is the increase of transport services which bring along pollution for city dwellers. In line with the pace of trade liberalization the demand for transport services across the country, and particularly in cities like Dhaka, has increased many folds. This is because of the fact that most of the industries, business houses and establishments are based in and around Dhaka city. This has been causing air pollution which is very high compared to many cities in the world. The situation is worsening due to weak regulatory framework and implementation measures and lack of awareness among the policy makers and common people. Such a situation calls not only for designing a transportation system for the city but also for a policy on liberalization of the transport sector which will combine FDI and technology transfer in order to keep pollution within the acceptance levels.

Section‐1: Trade and Services Trade Liberalization in Bangladesh: An Overview

Bangladesh’s trade policies till 1980s was characterized by strict import substitution and industrialization governed by the public sector. This phase (1971‐1980) saw a number of protective and concessionary measures such as quantitative restrictions (QR), restricted import licensing, differentiated and high rates of nominal tariffs, an overvalued domestic currency and subsidized loans to traded goods (Hoque 2005). Most of the industrial units of the country were nationalized and domestic industries were protected through high tariffs on imports during the first half of the 1970s. The second half experienced some changes in the government policies towards local industries, yet tariff rates on imported goods were as high as upto 400 percent. There were widespread quantitative restrictions (QR). The protectionist trade policies during the 1970s by the state were aimed to protect domestic industries and raise revenue (Mujeri and Khondkar 2002). These distorted incentives led to an allocative inefficiency and created an anti‐export bias (Hoque 2005).

During the second phase of the trade policies, the 1980s and 1990s, the country had experienced a radical shift from the previous protectionist to a more liberalized trade policy regime under the structural adjustment programmes (SAP) suggested by the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (Nahar and Siriwardana 2009). In the early 1980s Bangladesh’s trade policies were made more liberalized with easier exchange regulations and significant removal of both tariff and non‐ tariff barriers. It was also supported by the removal of QRs on imports, including deregulated import procedure. The second half of the 1980s saw further changes in the industrial policy of the country and substantial reduction of QRs on imports and rationalization of tariffs. During this period Bangladesh also took an initiative to recourse the Structural Adjustment Facilities (SAF) of IMF in 1986 and 1989, respectively (CPD‐UNEP 1999).

Since the beginning of the 1990s Bangladesh undertook a process of trade policy reform with a substantial scaling down and rationalization of tariffs, removal of trade related QRs, elimination of import licensing, unification of exchange rates and move to a more flexible exchange rate regime (Ahmed and Sattar 2004; Hoque 2005). Trade, fiscal, financial and institutional policy reforms through cutting back of public sector expenditures, reduction of an anti‐export bias in the tax structure, tariff rationalization and changes in exchange rate policy were undertaken under the SAP (Hoque 2005). Average import duties were reduced to avail raw materials, machinery and equipments. The overall trade openness in the 1990s saw an increasing trend with the liberalized policies and the situation its current account deficit and domestic resource balance got improved; inflation remained under control (CPD‐UNEP 1999). Although the issue of equity and gains from trade accrued more to the relatively well‐ off households and the extremely poor benefited least (Mujeri and Khandker 2002), but the overall economic performance of the liberalization policies were quite impressive (Nahar and Siriwardana 2009). On the other hand, some studies also reported negative social and environmental impacts of the SAP which also resulted into the emergence of environmental protection mechanism of the country.

The beginning of the new millennium saw some significant changes in the country’s trade policies in the form of further reduction in custom duties and tariffs. Bold exchange rate liberalization took place by the introducing of a fully market‐based exchange rate regime in the year 2003. These were further facilitated by the introduction of a 3‐year long new import policy (2006‐2009) and a separate new export policy (2006‐2009) by the Government of Bangladesh ((Nahar and Siriwardana 2009). Emphases were given on diversification of export‐base, improving the quality of export items and to stimulate high value‐added exports to machineries and intermediate inputs. Special fiscal and financial packages and

3 incentives were provided by the state to protect and promote the external trade of the country. Furthermore, policies related to income tax rebates, rebates on insurance premiums, lower rates on interests on bank loans were extended to the industries, tax holidays, export credit guarantee schemes, among others, were initiated by the government to facilitate exports ((Nahar and Siriwardana 2009). Introduction of letter of credit (LC) system, establishing an export development fund and export processing zones (EPZs) were some other bold steps by the state in the new millennium which has profound impacts on the international trade regime of Bangladesh.

Besides manufacturing sectors, liberalization policies in some of the services sectors like telecommunication, energy, health services, financial services, etc have already taken place under the GATS regime and more sectors are increasingly being suggested for liberalization keeping in mind its significant share for the country’s GDP growth4. With time, services sector in Bangladesh is growing faster. For instance, the annual average growth in services sector has increased from 3.71 percent in 1981‐90 to 4.48 percent in 1991‐00 to 5.67 percent during 2001‐05 (CUTS 2008). Although the sector is growing steadily over the last several years it has yet substantial potentiality for further expansion and growth due to changes in the patterns of local and global demands for services. The sector has also high potentiality of FDI inflow reflected through the recent FDI flow data and overgrowing unrests and wage hikes in some of the traditional services producing countries. Since 2003‐04, it has been able to attract large FDI inflows in the country (Raihan and Ahmed 2008). Due to lack of required infrastructure, institutional settings, favourable governance and weak power and energy situations, the country is facing serious constraints in exploring and reaping benefits from services trade liberalization. There is need to overcome these constraints and develop a conducive environment for investment in the country for developing a competitive services sector.

For developing a competitive services sector in the country which will be sustainable in nature, there is need for assessing various types of impacts associated with services trade liberalization which may include economic, social and environmental impacts. Experts think that here is a need to identify current state of potentials, weaknesses and constraints of the domestic services sector for undertaking further steps in liberalizing (Raihan 2008). Out of the most potential services sectors which are expected to come under liberalization policies transport sector is one which demand serious consideration from the policy makers. Because of unique geographical location, Bangladesh has the potential for becoming a

4 In the year 2009‐10, services sector contributed 49.9% of the GDP growth of Bangladesh (Bangladesh Economic Review, 2010).

‘transport hub’ to serve the entire hinterland comprising Nepal, Bhutan and North‐East India (Raihan 2008).

Many countries like Singapore have already requested Bangladesh to open up its transport services after the inception of GATS, whereas EC’s request included many more. Bangladesh in transport sector has a huge possibility if the sector is modernize carefully. For that understanding the impacts of liberalization from diverse angles in terms of costs and benefits of liberalizations may also help the trade negotiators and policy makers to pursue the country’s interests in the global forums and trade negotiations. Experts opine that Bangladesh can liberalize transport sector under the Mode 4 only after setting up a proper regulatory body (Raihan 2008). Moreover, it is also important to assess its environmental impact (EIA) as transport sector is highly sensitive to pollution. The importance of EIA has increased more with increasing impacts from climate change and thus there is need for undertaking required mitigation measures for carbon emissions from this sector. Although in Bangladesh vehicular pollution as a whole is insignificant but gradually the situations in major cities like Dhaka are getting fast deteriorated. The situation now demands developing a sustainable mass transportation system for Dhaka city keeping in mind the importance of the city for its economy and the pace of its unplanned urbanization and migration for better livelihoods.

Section‐2: State of Transport Services in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has an extensive and diversified transport system comprising of roads, inland waterways, sea‐ports, maritime shipping and civil aviation which included about 103,536 km roads (20,948 km highways and 82,588 km rural roads), 2834 km railways, 24,000 km inland waterways, 2 sea‐ports, maritime shipping and civil aviation, etc. (BDFM 2010). Since independence the country tried to develop an extensive network of transportation, yet the prevailing situation is not very encouraging mainly due to: explosion of population, natural disasters and erratic weather conditions, high corruption and mismanagement in the transport sector, etc. Among all forms of transport services, the load on road transport is increasing day‐by‐day mainly due to degradation of river ecosystems and lack of appropriate attention on the development of railway sector in Bangladesh.

Table‐2.1: Development of Transport Services in Bangladesh

Year Passenger (Mode Share in %) Freight (Mode Share in %) Total Pass‐ Road Rail IWT Total Ton‐ Road Rail IWT km (Bil) km (Bil) 1975 17 54 30 16 2.6 35 28 37 1985 35 64 20 16 4.8 48 17 35 1989 57 68 17 15 6.3 53 17 30 1997 90 72 11 17 12 65 7 28 2005 112 88 4 8 20 80 4 16 Source: Bangladesh Transport Policy, 2009

On the other hand, the public expenditures in transport sector on average, and land transport in particular, has increased over the years due to expansion of economic activities, growth of population, rural to urban migration and increased connectivity (Table‐2.1).

Table‐2.2: Annual Development Expenditure of Road and Rail Transport of Bangladesh (in million Tk.)

Transport Road Rail Annual Transport Sector Sector Rail Sector Sector Development Sector Share (% Road Sector Share (% Expenditur Share (% Year Expenditure Expenditure of ADP) Expenditure of ADP) e of ADP) 1972 2810 295 10.50 98 3.49 93 3.31 1977 12570 1640 13.05 586 4.66 466 3.71 1982 26880 3011 11.20 1287 4.79 1132 4.21 1987 41500 4544 10.95 2171 5.23 1494 3.60 1992 65500 9694 14.80 7113 10.86 1585 2.42 1997 110370 21743 19.70 10596 9.60 3466 3.14 2002 154340 24926 16.15 20558 13.32 3318 2.15 2005 194730 27846 14.30 19317 9.92 6056 3.11 2007 184310 20901 11.34 16072 8.72 3686 2.00 2009 Source

Transport sector in any country plays a critical role in the economic growth and development. And especially for a developing country like Bangladesh, it has immense role to play. Share of transport sector to the GDP of Bangladesh on an average has increased since 1990. Among all the sub‐sectors, land transport has comparatively performed better (Table‐2.3) mainly due to: more fiscal and budgetary

6 attention, ignorance of railway sector and degradation of most of the river ecosystems and thus water transport in Bangladesh. The same is true for annual growth of GDP by transport sector, and particularly a steady growth in the land transport services.

Table‐2.3: Share of GDP by Transport Sector at Current Prices (%)

Activity/ Transport and Water Support Transp. Sector Storage Land Transport Transport Air Transport service storage 1990 9.93 6.84 2.26 0.17 0.27 1991 9.65 6.73 2.09 0.16 0.27 1992 9.71 6.77 1.98 0.17 0.30 1993 9.90 6.95 1.90 0.20 0.34 1994 9.71 6.81 1.75 0.20 0.33 1995 9.24 6.51 1.55 0.17 0.36 1996 9.07 6.44 1.43 0.16 0.37 1997 8.99 6.37 1.33 0.14 0.36 1998 8.69 6.24 1.21 0.15 0.33 1999 8.51 6.17 1.13 0.15 0.32 2000 8.63 6.32 1.09 0.16 0.34 2001 9.03 6.57 1.07 0.16 0.38 2002 9.69 7.16 1.03 0.16 0.38 2003 10.73 8.31 0.96 0.14 0.36 2004 10.78 8.41 0.90 0.14 0.33 2005 10.77 8.26 0.84 0.13 0.33 2006 10.79 8.20 0.78 0.12 0.31 2007 10.71 8.07 0.72 0.11 0.31 2008 10.47 7.78 0.67 0.10 0.30 Source:

Table‐2.4: Annual Growth of GDP by Transport Sector at Constant Prices (1995‐96=100) (%)

Support Transport, Transport Activity/ Storage and Land Water Air service Post and Sector Communication Transport Transport Transport storage Telecommunication 1990 1991 1.60 3.66 ‐2.91 ‐5.72 3.45 ‐6.66 1992 3.66 3.49 ‐1.42 0.57 8.87 34.03 1993 3.04 3.91 ‐2.99 11.83 9.18 8.66 1994 4.02 3.91 ‐1.83 8.14 1.20 28.86 1995 4.95 5.13 ‐2.12 ‐8.42 21.02 19.29

1996 5.15 5.50 ‐1.46 6.25 9.98 14.71 1997 5.50 5.44 ‐0.84 ‐10.68 0.72 25.57 1998 5.69 6.75 ‐0.92 16.89 3.36 7.42 1999 5.90 6.62 1.60 14.46 4.24 5.96 2000 6.08 6.32 1.78 16.80 13.15 5.57 2001 7.92 6.37 0.57 4.62 18.10 26.92 2002 6.56 6.73 0.34 ‐16.84 ‐4.62 20.95 2003 6.85 6.64 0.07 ‐1.35 ‐1.17 17.89 2004 6.21 6.02 0.16 0.84 ‐1.35 14.56 2005 7.92 4.25 1.95 2.49 2.92 31.79 2006 7.98 4.14 1.95 5.25 6.13 26.70 2007 8.03 4.18 1.73 2.01 8.93 23.29 Source:

The growth of transport sector in Bangladesh is not a planned one, despite having the possibility of being achieved a better network due to its distinctive advantages of being blessed with vast river systems and sea besides the possibility of developing land‐based transport systems. Over the years, railways and water transport systems were ignored. Although the independent Bangladesh has achieved to develop quite extensive road network but due to adverse weather systems and large‐scale corruption in the infrastructure development sector these roads frequently found to be in bad shape. Currently, the road network in the country serves 80 percent of passenger and 65 percent of freight movement (Ahmed, et.al. 2010). But a weaker traffic system, huge congestion and mismanagement are not only causing frequent traffic jam in most of the inter‐district roads but also are responsible for road accidents and large casualties.

The commonly found vehicles in most of the Bangladeshi roads are: buses and microbuses of various types, trucks and vans for goods carrying, cars, jeeps and taxis for private services, three‐wheelers/ autos/ CNG autos, two‐wheeler motorbikes, rickshaws, cycles and wooden carts of different types.

Figure‐2.5: Number of Registered Vehicles in Bangladesh

Auto‐ Jeep/St. Rickshaw/ Type of Motor Wagan/ Auto‐ Motor Vehicles Car Microbus Taxi Bus Minibus Truck Tempo Cycle Others Total Before 1995 51312 27460 1908 27510 24007 27919 35586 163699 5872 365273 1995 8714 2451 28 214 1085 3787 14953 11389 1383 44004 1996 12478 2408 59 149 795 3164 11984 13977 1443 46457 1997 8354 1459 14 99 866 1282 6546 12080 1583 32283

1998 5876 2705 103 286 602 2733 4403 14525 1248 32481 1999 4986 2269 216 267 479 2018 2140 16511 2617 31503 2000 4087 1517 580 337 404 2725 3135 14614 1365 28764 2001 6587 3068 771 594 1218 2575 397 24409 2891 42510 2002 6757 3782 2233 740 2314 2377 5479 29047 2148 54877 2003 7045 2245 5020 421 1594 2795 13856 21096 4183 59248 2004 5410 2514 540 857 622 2583 8974 24941 2761 65878 2005 6431 3963 515 783 361 2791 4877 43226 2931 80305 2006 8447 5540 275 1020 241 3065 6898 51106 3713 121272 2007 11941 5650 15 1368 382 2521 10530 85131 3734 144419 2008 16927 6537 9 1342 307 2609 19071 93541 4076 145243

2009 21461 9027 12 1184 320 6561 14902 85142 6634 1343719 Source: BRTA, 2010

A careful look over the above figure can make us understood that number of vehicles over the years are increasing out of which number of buses, private cars and motorcycles are increasing much faster than others.

Transport Services in Dhaka city: Liberalization in Bangladesh, although, has started just after its independence yet the scale of trade and investment liberalization actually got intensified since early 1990s with a process of trade policy reform with a substantial scaling down and rationalization of tariffs, removal of trade related QRs, elimination of import licensing, unification of exchange rates and move to a more flexible exchange rate regime (Ahmed and Sattar 2004; Hoque 2005). Several industrial policies were established in the 1990s to provide an encouraging regulatory environment for foreign investment and to reduce the number of areas limited to the public sector supported by establishing two EPZs for attracting FDIs. These initiatives have been hailed as generating employment, growth, and development in Bangladesh (Khan, 2000). The growth of ready‐made garments (RMG) sector in Bangladesh can be seen as a major development in the export‐oriented sectors in Bangladesh in terms of employment, output, investment, and foreign exchange earnings. It was followed by the growth in cotton textiles, leather products, pharmaceuticals and chemicals and the recent emergence of financial services, information and communications, health and hospitality industries. Higher growth of population fuelled unemployment situation in the rural economy supported by lack of modernization and absence of scientific farming which pushed thousands of people to migrate to the low‐skilled urban sectors like RMG. Most of the RMG factories, the EPZs and other export‐oriented industries being closer to Dhaka city pushed the growth of the urbanization much faster than naturally should be (Table‐2.6).

Table‐2.6: Increasing Trend of Population Growth, Area and Density of Dhaka city

% increase over the Year Area (sq. km) Population preceding year Density (per sq. km.) 1951 85.45 411,279 .. 4813.09 1961 124.45 718,766 74.76 5775.54 1974 335.79 2,068,353 187.76 6159.66 1981 509.62 3,440,147 66.32 6750.41 1991 1352.82 6,844,131 98.95 5059.16 2001 1352.82 10,712,206 56.51 7918.43 2009 Source: BBS, 2009

With the growth of industrial units and expansion of other services sectors around Dhaka and its neighbourhood areas (e.g. Narayanganj, Tongi & Gazipur, Savar, Keraniganj) city population the demand for transport services for both for the movement of goods and population have increased (Table‐2.6).

Table‐2.7: Number of Registered Vehicles in Dhaka city

Auto‐ Jeep/St. Rickshaw/ Type of Motor Wagan/ Mini‐ Auto‐ Motor Vehicles Car Microbus Taxi Bus bus Truck Tempo Cycle Others Total Upto 1995 36998 17937 787 269 2009 9775 8359 61478 2063 139675 1995 6923 1556 25 145 324 802 7301 4427 878 22381 1996 8386 1387 35 73 767 615 4615 4027 828 20133 1997 6528 1492 14 58 397 834 1902 5346 310 16881 1998 4984 1438 102 184 300 1681 1689 4992 196 15566 1999 4330 1371 215 224 215 855 682 5330 1326 14548 2000 2452 910 348 202 242 1635 1881 8768 819 17257 2001 5560 1579 762 453 831 890 75 8590 1825 20565 2002 5542 2911 2101 632 1924 1127 2616 9102 1012 26967 2003 6163 1810 4980 374 1051 2128 7996 7239 3257 35671 2004 4734 2114 523 779 368 1437 2344 7872 1300 21471 2005 5633 3303 514 728 118 1104 139 12879 2361 26779 2006 7403 4548 266 949 75 1480 230 16284 2728 33963 2007 10244 4372 0 1082 77 830 121 17303 2913 36942 2008 13749 5077 0 1144 107 1642 155 23713 2550 48137 2009 17654 6803 10 914 112 3180 1144 22093 4868 56778 Source: BRTA 2010

A trend analysis for registered motor vehicles in Dhaka city may make it clear that over the year the numbers of such vehicles are increasing with a sharp upward trend, except in 2003 when the government has permission to about 5000 taxi cabs to run on the Dhaka roads. Increased opportunities for the skilled manpower in services sectors like banks and other financial sectors, educational institutions, NGOs, etc. have propelled their income to grow faster and thus have impacts of their life‐ styles and consumption patterns. This is one reason why the demand for private motor vehicles is increasing in the urban areas like Dhaka. A weak public transportation system in Bangladesh is equally responsible for the increases of private vehicles in cities like Dhaka.

Section‐3: Trade Liberalization and the Growth of Transport Services in Bangladesh

Trade openness5 in Bangladesh since 1990s has gradually being increased due to more liberalized polices undertaken by the Government of Bangladesh to attract more FDI, encourage the growth of export‐ oriented industries and to create more employment opportunities.

Figure‐3.1: Trade Openness in Bangladesh for the period 1990‐2007

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: IFS, 2010

The above figure (Figure‐3.1) shows very clearly how trade openness has increased for Bangladesh since 1990. The openness in the recent years (e.g. in 2006 and 2007) has increased quite significantly resulted into significant earnings by Bangladesh from international trading.

5 Trade Openness of a particular year (suppose year ‘i’) is defined here by, Trade Openness = ((Export+ Import)/ Total GDP) * 100

With the increases in trade openness, significant changes has also been occurred in the transport trade, for both imports and export of transport items, although exports of transport items from Bangladesh to the rest of the world are really meager compare to its imports. Interestingly, Bangladesh’s transport trade with the rest of the world is mostly dominated by certain countries for certain commodities (Table‐3.1 & for details of the products please refer Appendix‐A). In case of imports of transport items it is mostly from Japan and India, whereas countries like U.K. and France are also emerging as significant transport product suppliers for Bangladesh.

Trade Liberalization, Tariff Rates and Imports of Transport Equipments: Due to liberalization of trade policies by Bangladesh, imports of transport equipments, technologies and other related products have increased by many‐folds over the years. An assessment has been done to identify the most important transport items/ equipments which have been imported by Bangladesh mainly from two countries: India and Japan, besides countries like UK, France and Germany.

Table‐3.1: Major Transport Commodity Importing Countries for Bangladesh

Year Product Code (HS‐6) Major Import Destinations 1990 870390, 870600, 870210, 871190 Japan, India 1991 870390, 871120, 870600, 871110 Japan, India 1992 870390, 871120, 870290, 871110 Japan, India 1993 870390, 870290, 871110, 870600 Japan, India 1994 … … 1995 870322, 870422, 870210, 871120 Japan, India 1996 870322, 871120, 870421, 870323 Japan, India 1997 870322, 870323, 871120, 870210 Japan, India 1998 870323, 870322, 871120, 870600 Japan, India, France 1999 .. … 2000 870322, 870422, 870323, 870210 Japan, India 2001 870322, 870210, 870323, 870421 Japan 2002 870322, 870210, 870323, 870210 Japan, India 2003 870322, 870323, 871000, 870421 Japan, India 2004 870421, 870322, 870323, 871200 Japan, India, UK 2005 870322, 870323, 871200, 871120 Japan, India, UK 2006 870322, 870323, 871200, 871120 Japan, India, UK 2007 870322, 870323, 871120, 870422 Japan, India, UK Source: Compiled from WITS database

Out of the total transport imports from the world a bulk of them are from India and Japan. The following table (Table‐3.2) presents the annual imports of transport equipments from the two countries and their share with the total imports by Bangladesh:

Table‐3.2: Imports of Transport Items/ Equipments from the World, Japan and India

% of the total imports Year World Japan India from India and Japan 1990 93970.12 49396.876 22550.284 76.56 1991 70615.976 41925.072 12889.157 77.62 1992 49188.84 31989.774 8094.926 81.49 1993 74766.736 51596.624 14109.799 87.88 1994 NA NA NA NA 1995 154866.128 74080.208 54753.996 83.19 1996 210132.848 84422.528 84802.56 80.53 1997 203527.68 76917.688 76385.512 75.32 1998 162393.552 81284.664 30604.768 68.90 1999 NA NA NA NA 2000 231136.403 133110.155 56274.742 81.94 2001 260411.042 159894.821 47833.703 79.77 2002 322029.452 133859.386 93520.191 70.61 2003 359499.322 154532.573 98680.01 70.43 2004 657942.03 509266.114 78730.086 89.37 2005 350883.737 170060.807 95155.088 75.59 2006 398470.37 161862.206 126200.723 72.29 2007 420355.228 195493.189 151353.726 82.51 Source: WITS Database & Calculations, 2010

In contrary to the imports of transport items from abroad by Bangladesh, its exports to the rest of the world are really meager in values (Table‐3.3). Exports of vehicles and transport equipments from Bangladesh have increased many folds in the recent years with a sharp increase from 2004. Most of the commonly exported transport items by Bangladesh are bicycle, motor parts and truck parts, etc. (see Appendix‐A). More importantly, the exporting countries are mostly developed countries like Singapore, Canada, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Japan, etc.

Table‐3.3: Major Transport Commodity Exporting Countries for Bangladesh

Year Product Code (HS‐6) Major Export Destinations 1990 871190 Sweden 1991 870899 Unspecified 1992 870899, 871200 Singapore, US, Germany 1993 870899, 870911, 870919, 871120 Taiwan, China, Malaysia, UK 1994 870899, 870990 Oman, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan 1995 870899, 871200 Singapore, France, Germany, UK 1996 870899, 871200 Singapore, US, Germany, Denmark, France 1997 870899, 870990, 871200 Singapore, Japan, Korea, Rep, Denmark 1998 870899, 871110, 871130871150 Singapore, Japan, Netherlands 1999 ………….. ……… 2000 871200 Canada, Germany, Finland, UK 2001 870899, 871190 Korea, Rep, US, Canada, Germany, Denmark 2002 871200, 871190, 870990, 871200 Singapore, US, Australia, Germany, Denmark 2003 870899, 870919, 870990, 871200 Malaysia, Japan, UK, Sweden, Canada 2004 870899, 870919 R. Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Libya, Yemen 2005 870899, 870919 Malaysia, Singapore, China, US 2006 870899, 871130 Japan, Malaysia, US, South Africa 2007 870899, 871140 Japan, Malaysia, Senegal, US, Oman Source: Compiled from WITS database

Trade openness has a positive and significant correlation with the trade on transport items (both imports and exports of vehicles and vehicle parts) by Bangladesh for the period 1990‐2007. The co‐ efficient of correlation between them for this time period is estimated to be 0.82, which is considered as highly positively associated. This means that trade openness has inspired higher trade on transport items for Bangladesh during this period. This can be attributed to higher demands for all types of vehicles/ equipments and related materials in the country which are mostly imported from abroad.

Section‐4: Dhaka city and the State of the Vehicular Air Pollution

Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, is the fastest growing city in the world with total population of … million and an average annual growth rate of 5.6 percent over the period 1975‐2007. By 2025 it is projected to have 22.0 million people and ranks 4th among the megacities of the world from the present 9th position (Statistical Yearbook of Asia and the Pacific 2009). Studies indicate that by 2050, about 57 percent of the total people in Bangladesh will be leaving in cities (CIA‐Asia 2008) compared to 25

14 percent in 2009 (BBS 2009), from where a lion’s share will be residing in Dhaka city itself. Even by 2015, Dhaka may become one of the densest cities in the world (CIA‐Asia 2008) if the prevailing trend of urbanization is not changed significantly. The reasons for this unplanned urbanization can be attributed to: high growth of population and lack of employment opportunities in the rural areas of the country; scarcity of resources, including natural resources in the country; increasing rural‐urban connectivity and most importantly better opportunities in Dhaka city due to expansion of manufacturing sectors like RMG and other services sectors flourished with liberalization.

The rapid urbanization in Dhaka city has increased the demands for civic amenities like transport, energy, power and water by many folds and will continue to increase in future too if the prevailing situation goes uninterrupted. This may create a pathetic situation for the city dwellers from the current state of an unhealthy one. Be it transport, energy and power‐‐ the problem is really very complex now. The traffic system of the city has already earned the reputation of being one of the most congested ones with its limited transport infrastructure and uncontrolled vehicles running on its narrow roads. The city has experienced a phenomenal growth in motorization in the recent years (AQMP 2006). Since 2000, the number of registered vehicles in Dhaka city has increased by about 125 percent (till 2009) (BRTA 2010). With narrow existing roads and limited space available for new transport infrastructure development, the situation may become even worse in the coming years if timely initiatives are not taken by the authorities.

With the increasing number of vehicles in Dhaka city, there has also been a steep rise in the heterogeneous mix of old technology vehicles on the city roads despite the fact that the road space is narrowing and traffic congestion reached to an unmanageable proportion. Poor fuel quality, poorly maintained vehicles, inadequate transport infrastructure, lack of proper transport planning and management with technological backwardness for the city vehicles have fuelled the pollution situation (AQMP 2006). According to the AQMP (2006), the main air pollutants of Dhaka city are sulfur dioxide

(SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and lead (Pb). Out of these pollutants the national figures for PM, SO2 and NOx are increasing slowly, although for the later two the levels are still below the national ambient air quality standards set by the WHO. On the other hand, the levels of PM2.5 and PM10 are far higher than their standards. The proposed national standard for vehicular emissions for Bangladesh is presented below:

Table‐4.1: Proposed National Standards for Vehicular Emissions for Bangladesh

Sl Pollutant Unit Emission Standard 1 Carbon Monoxide (CO) Gram/KM 24 Area Percentage 4% 2 Hydro Carbon (..) Gram/KM 02 PPM 180 3 Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Gram/KM 02 PPM 600 4 Black Smoke Hartridge Smoke Unit (HSU) 65

Source: AQMP, 2006

As per the AQMP (2006), old‐fashioned diesel‐run vehicles in Dhaka city are the main culprits for its vehicular air pollutions. Out of the various types of vehicles play on the city roads, the diesel‐run vehicles such as human‐haulers, maxis, minibuses, trucks, two‐stroke motorcycles and other obsolete‐ technology run vehicles. The project also identifies that about 90 percent of the human‐hauler and maxis run on the city roads are unfit; 60 percent minibuses emit more than the standard emissions, whereas 71 percent of the pick‐up vans also violates their proposed standard pollution norms. Among the motorcycles, only two‐stroke engine‐run vehicles cause serious pollutions. Similarly, overloaded and over‐fueled trucks contribute significantly to worsening city’s air quality, particularly in the winter months. Despite the phasing out of two‐stroke three wheeler baby taxis from the city roads in 2003, the air quality could not be sustained due to large‐number of smoky diesel‐run vehicles came to the city roads in the absence of a bus rapid transit (BRT) system (AQMP 2006).

Out of the most contributing air pollutants, petrol driven light vehicles and auto‐rickshaws contributes

85 percent of the CO emission; diesel buses and trucks contribute about 84 percent of total NOx and 45 percent of the PM emissions, whereas diesel‐fired auto‐rickshaws contribute 40 percent of the total PM emissions. On the other hand, SO2 emissions from vehicles are not very significant compare to others.

Out of pollutants, PM2.5 is the controlling one for Dhaka’s air pollution (AQMP 2006).

Figure‐4.1: Vehicular Emissions of PM10 and PM2.5 since 2002

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* PM10 (µg/m3) PM2.5 (µg/m3)

Source: DOE, 2010;

* indicates average monthly data for the first three months only (January to March, 2009)

Keeping in mind the mix of fuel consumptions for the city vehicles as the main reason for its vehicular air pollution, the government undertook a step to convert petrol/ diesel‐run vehicles into CNG. The initiative was proved to be a timely one despite the city has still quite good number on non‐CNG run vehicles which are producing the maximum vehicular air pollutions. Some studies like Chowdhury and Imran (2010) reported that about 90 percent of the city vehicles (other than motorcycles), which total roughly 200,000, have switched to CNG already. This includes the more than 6,000 buses and 8,000 minibuses that used to run on diesel and accounted for 57 percent of the vehicular PM emission. CNG‐ conversion is done in view of the lucane of the Motor Vehicle Ordinance, 1983. Also rising prices of auto fuels in the recent years have contributed to conversion of vehicle engines into CNG.

Figure‐4.2: Vehicles Concerted into CNG since 1995‐96 in Dhaka city

No. of Vehicles Converted to CNG 1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0 1995‐96 1996‐97 1997‐98 1998‐99 1999‐00 2000‐01 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09

Source: RPGCL, 2010

If compares the level of emissions by the CNG‐run vehicles with the petrol/diesel‐run vehicles for Dhaka city, it is found that the former type produce comparatively little pollutions than their counterparts (data only on a few pollution variables for CNG and non‐CNG are available). For example, the corresponding figures for auto‐rickshaw, microbuses, jeep or taxi cabs show that the CNG‐run vehicles produce less than a half of the pollutions the diesel/ petrol run vehicles produce. In Many cases the situation is far better.

The following figures for carbon monoxide (CO) and Hydrocarbon (PPM) emissions by vehicles in Dhaka city can make it easier why conversion of auto‐fuel run vehicles into CNG is beneficial for environment and also economic in long run.

Figure‐4.3: Carbon Monoxide (CO) Emission by Vehicles in Dhaka city: CNG vs Petrol

Petrol CNG

Source: AQMP, 2006

Figure‐4.4: Hydrocarbon (PPM) Emission by Vehicles in Dhaka city: CNG vs Petrol

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

Petrol CNG

Source: AQMP, 2006

This makes it easy that diesel and petrol‐ run vehicles in Dhaka city are the main culprits for the vehicular air pollutions. Thus it is very important for the country to undertake technological upgradation to have efficient use of fuels and ensure better environment for the city.

Section‐5: Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of Transport Services for Dhaka city

The OECD (1994) has identified five broad categories of impacts from trade policies for environmental impact assessments (EIA). These effects:

i) Products Effects: related to the range of products and services that are traded; ii) Technology Effects: related to the transfer of production technologies across borders; iii) Scale Effects: related to effects on the overall level of activities; iv) Structural Effects: related to changes in the sectoral composition of production, changes industry structure, and changes with regard to moves along the value added chain; v) Regulatory Effects: related to impacts on environmental or other regulations.

There can be environmental impact assessment (EIA) studies covering the whole economy or some specific sectors for sectoral level assessments. Regarding the tools used for assessments experts use both quantitative and qualitative assessment tools. These are commonly found as general equilibrium or partial equilibrium models for quantitative assessments and qualitative indicators for understanding product, technology and regulatory effects (such as for transport services) for qualitative assessments. Although the quantitative assessments can give exact understanding about the state of environmental conditions yet the qualitative indicators used for assessing environmental quality (air, water, land or noise pollutions) are increasingly being used now‐a‐days for EIA studies. These are considered as very effective tools for policy decision making.

Sustainability impact assessments (SIA) or environmental impact assessments (EIA) for services sectors are relatively recent phenomenon (RIDES‐Adelphi 2003). The first methodological work was carried out by Andrew (2000) for the OECD, followed by another study by the OECD in 2002. Although many studies on the EIA or SIA of trade liberalization for the services sectors have been carried out by experts since then6 transport services being environmentally high impact sector surprisingly generated little literature. It’s mainly due to the nature of complexities associated with transport services and its direct and indirect effects (Mayrand and Paquin 2007). It doesn’t mean that nothing has been done till date to assess environmental impacts for transport services due to liberalization. Two EIA studies by the RIDES and Adelphi Research (2003) on Germany and Chile are found to be the most comprehensive studies on the environmental impact assessments for transport services due to trade and services liberalizations.

6 Most of the available studies using sophisticated methodologies are carried out in the developed countries, particularly in the EU and North America.

The present study on the EIA of transport services of Dhaka city from liberalization of trade and services trade policies in Bangladesh is a sectoral assessment study which has used qualitative indicators of transport‐led environmental degradation for Dhaka city as its assessment tool. The study focuses both the direct and indirect effects of transport services:

Product Effects: A significant part of the transport equipments/ items imported to Bangladesh are reconditioned vehicles (different types of cars and buses), automobiles, motorcycles, engines and cylinders (see Appendix‐A). Many of these products/ equipments are used for vehicles which are highly sensitive to air pollution. For example, two‐stroke engines used for city vehicles like motorcycles and three‐wheeler baby taxis are very polluting. These vehicles are producing most of the polluting substances for Dhaka’s air. With liberalization policies undertaken by Bangladesh, the imports of these products by the state have increased significantly over the years (Table‐5.1) due to: easier trade, higher demands and availability.

Table‐5.1: Most Imported Transport Items/ Equipments by Bangladesh since 1990

HS‐6≥ 870210 870290 870322 870323 870390 870421 870422 870600 871000 871110 871190 871200

1990 6676.563 1786.607 4764.540 1853.990 16461.572 2194.086 719.601 18500.212 NA 902.380 5962.696 567.590

1991 1121.458 2890.923 1731.286 424.039 14640.388 1860.013 214.900 8930.808 NA 3797.102 296.267 496.659

1992 2138.669 3891.580 1870.206 292.493 8738.272 1290.040 236.848 2239.015 NA 3015.642 221.930 503.777

1993 3923.897 7151.003 3272.957 789.637 16810.318 4352.092 985.935 5947.724 NA 5718.536 145.473 996.763

1995 19736.740 3566.570 40944.924 8105.592 2778.968 3598.532 20935.380 NA 305.668 5781.238 1483.551 5373.019

1996 19641.336 818.176 31586.630 19320.232 3929.578 20602.952 13723.232 213.024 7816.722 2784.751 3187.063 4245.803

1997 22526.226 4847.072 27104.896 24808.380 2155.180 8283.518 14942.204 5966.385 7666.781 262.595 5048.571 6157.751

1998 7835.578 1432.639 23604.568 30199.630 5752.892 5275.590 3382.580 10338.164 1454.115 176.494 1303.712 5335.108

2000 27364.910 3925.948 43280.369 21015.648 9337.581 12538.832 24198.361 993.945 5.006 513.082 23.000 3987.091

2001 49070.483 5153.669 38739.313 24230.349 1226.785 22304.886 22712.323 540.537 NA 639.427 3.502 3506.139

2002 50209.892 2041.963 38630.069 26078.924 8635.227 15211.207 24830.832 2436.149 17317.247 900.573 26.297 25263.294

2003 26348.406 3587.963 58805.947 33437.459 22225.341 25610.459 10949.371 3554.516 25640.624 709.672 44.487 18201.117

2004 20143.134 15374.390 46720.652 34395.276 8765.306 395670.748 21465.756 3194.218 514.667 507.436 27.660 965.582

2005 19953.875 12233.400 54317.213 45708.069 5308.911 24161.382 28032.172 3661.175 6219.467 660.140 18.984 809.161

2006 17498.517 8866.141 67164.957 58740.632 12534.458 14102.832 27587.189 11894.891 16693.606 1529.546 9.286 889.320

2007 17147.263 11646.749 101538.162 53248.879 20760.690 15521.145 29206.349 23202.762 1513.169 1162.089 62.920 403.598 Source: WITS Database, 2010

A careful look over the table‐5.1 makes it pretty clear how quickly the demands for the selected transport equipments/ items7 have increased in Bangladesh since 1990. Given that a chunk of the vehicles in Bangladesh are run on the streets of Dhaka city itself8, it can be safely said that imports of transport items to Bangladesh has significantly be driven by the demands for Dhaka city itself.

According to the AQMP (2006), the main air pollutants of Dhaka city are sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and lead (Pb). Out of these pollutants the national figures for both of the PM substances, SO2 and NOx are increasing slowly9, although for the later two the levels are still below the national ambient air quality standards set by the WHO. On the other hand, the levels of PM2.5 and PM10 are far higher than their standards set by the WHO. The main reasons for increased PM concentration in the Dhaka city’s air are use of diesel‐run vehicles like trucks and buses (contribute about 45% of the PM emissions) and auto‐ rickshaws (which contribute 40% of the PM emissions). Many of the above‐listed transport equipments are used for buses, trucks and auto‐rickshaws run on the streets of Dhaka city which are causing high air pollutions.

Environmental Indicators: Based on the analysis of Dhaka city’s pollutions, overall transportation systems and the relationship between transports and air pollution in the city after the trade and services trade liberalization by Bangladesh, the following environmental indicators10 for transport services are developed. These indicators are developed purely based on the available information and analysis done in the earlier sections of this study.

7 The HS‐6 digit items are selected based on the highest imports of five HS‐6 transport items by Bangladesh for the period 1990 to 2007.

8 About 24.36 percent of the total registered vehicles run on the streets of Bangladesh are Dhaka‐based (BRTA, 2010). This figure may not reflect the actual one as many vehicles registered in other districts are also run on the streets of Dhaka without any interference. Moreover, there are thousands of other unregistered vehicles also play on Dhaka streets.

9 The figures for the Dhaka city are higher than the national figures.

10 These indicators are commonly being used for qualitative assessment of environmental impacts from transport‐ services (e.g. the studies by RIDES and Adelphi Research, 2003 have used the similar techniques for assessing the environmental impacts from liberalization).

Table‐5.2: Environmental Indicators for Transport Services for Dhaka city

Sl Indicator Changes & Effects Observations 1 PM10 & PM2.5 Slightly Increased since 1993 Remains above the standard limits for Bangladesh 2 SO2 Increasing slowly Below the national standard 3 NOx Increasing slowly Below the national standard 4 CO Slightly decreasing Below the national standard 5 CO2 Increasing Below the national standard 6 Noise Pollution Increasing 7 Energy Increasing day by day Less compare to many other LDCs Consumption but is increasing 8 Environmental Very High Road accidents in Dhaka city is very Risks like Accidents high compare to other similar mega‐cities 9 Water Pollution High Source: Compile based the Analysis

Based on the above analysis it can be argued that transportation is having a strong relation with environmental pollution in Dhaka city. Although conversion of petrol/ diesel‐run vehicles into CNG has decreased significant amount of pollution in the city, but the overgrowing number of various types of transports in the city are increasing day by day the total volume of pollutions. The liberalization policies undertaken by Bangladesh have direct or indirectly facilitated more imports of transport equipments/ items due to higher demands, lesser tariffs and easy availability.

Conclusions

Based on the above‐discussions the study can be summarized in the following points:

(i) Transport services in Dhaka city has been influenced by trade and services trade liberalization policies undertaken by the government of Bangladesh under the WTO regime. Reduced tariff rates and trade reforms have facilitated the imports of transport equipments/ vehicles from countries like India, Japan, UK and France;

(ii) Trade (imports) on transport items are mostly concentrated on selected items (Table: 3.1), out of which many are highly sensitive to pollution or used for vehicles which are highly polluting in nature. These are mostly buses, trucks, auto‐rickshaws and motorcycles run by diesel or petrol fuel;

(iii) The most important air pollutants of Dhaka city are sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide

(NOx), particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone, volatile organic compounds

(VOCs), and lead (Pb), of which PM levels in Dhaka are far higher than the national standards. The main reason for PM emissions are due to fuel‐uses and use of old technologies;

(iv) The conversion of diesel and petrol‐run vehicles into CNG has significantly improved the pollution situations in the city, yet the volume of pollution is increasing fast mainly due to its expanding economic opportunities, high population growth and migration and thus higher demand for vehicles. Many of these vehicles are either unfit for running on Dhaka or do not maintain pollution standards;

Trade liberalization has indeed increased economic opportunities for Bangladesh but at the same time led to produce some negative externalities like air pollution. Pollution in Dhaka city can be attributed to increased demands for vehicles and use of unclean energy and obsolete technologies. Despite that it would indeed be very absurd to claim that the only reason for Dhaka’s vehicular emissions is its transport services. The regulatory and institutional failures are equally responsible for the vehicular emissions. Moreover, it is also important to undertake required technological changes to keep the air pollution under control. Use of obsolete transport technologies for vehicles like three‐wheelers, motorcycles, human‐haulers and city buses are needed to be changed to keep the city pollution under control. Phasing out of old vehicles (more than 20 years) from the city roads should be supported by developing a mass transport system comprising metro‐rails, commuter rail networks, effective public and private bus services. Gas crisis in the recent years has also put the CNG‐run vehicles into trouble. This may encourage vehicles to use traditional polluting fuels like diesel and petrol. There is need to develop an effective transport policy with energy use policy for the city with its changing characteristics from globalization.

Lastly, keeping in pace with the changing world, Bangladesh may also consider to liberalize its transport services under the GATS regime. Another important issue which is getting much attention in the policy debates is the regional connectivity issue. These will indeed be very important steps for the country but would require very careful assessments from various grounds such as economic, social or environmental impact assessments. On that ground environmental impact assessments for transport services will provide very critical policy inputs for Bangladesh.

Reference

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Appendix: A (Tables)

Table‐1: Emission Estimates with and without CNG

Source: Chowdhury and Imran, 2010

Table‐2: Major Transport Items/Equipments Imported & Exported by Bangladesh since 1990

Major Transport Items Imported by Bangladesh

HS Code Classification 870600 Chassis fitted with engines, for the motor vehicles of headings 87.01 to 87.05. 870210 With compression‐ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi‐diesel) 870290 other types of buses 870322 Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1,000 cc but not exceeding 1,500 cc 870323 Of a cylinder capacity exceeding 1,500 cc but not exceeding 3,000 cc 870390 Automobiles nes including gas turbi 870421 g.v.w. not exceeding 5 tonnes 870422 g.v.w. exceeding 5 tonnes but not exceeding 20 tonnes Tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, motorized, whether or not fitted with 871000 weapons, and parts of such vehicles. With reciprocating internal combustion piston engine of a cylinder capacity not exceeding 871110 50 cc With reciprocating internal combustion piston engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 50 871120 cc but not exceeding 250 cc 871190 Motorcycles with other than a recip 871200 Bicycles and other cycles (including delivery tricycles), not motorized.

Major Transport Items Exported by Bangladesh

HS Code Classification 871200 Bicycles and other cycles (including delivery tricycles), not motorized. 871190 Motorcycles with other than a recip With reciprocating internal combustion piston engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 800 871150 cc With reciprocating internal combustion piston engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 500 871140 cc but not exceeding 800 cc With reciprocating internal combustion piston engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 250 871130 cc but not exceeding 500 cc With reciprocating internal combustion piston engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding 50 871120 cc but not exceeding 250 cc With reciprocating internal combustion piston engine of a cylinder capacity not exceeding 871110 50 cc 870990 Work Truck parts 870919 Work Trucks not electrically powered 870911 Work Trucks electrically powered 870899 Motor Vehicle parts nes Source: Compiled from WITS Database, 2010

Table‐3: Changes of Tariff Rates for Two Most Important Transport Equipments/Items Supplying Countries to Bangladesh (% of Applied Tariffs)

HS‐6 Code for Transport Equipments/ Items

Year 87 8702 8702 8703 8703 8703 8704 8704 8711 8711 87120 10 90 22 23 90 21 22 10 20 0

Exporting Country 1998 25.75 14.38 14.38 37.92 38.00 37.03 23.93 23.93 32.14 32.14 30.00

1999 20.8. 13.75 13.75 35.42 35.00 34.81 19.29 19.29 30.71 30.71 25.00

2004 13.94 14.00 11.07 21.82 22.81 22.32 18.57 18.57 25.00 25.00 25.00

2005 15.19 12.8 9.50 21.55 22.89 24.14 18.00 18.00 25.00 25.00 25.00

India 1998 24.36 14.38 14.38 37.92 38.00 37.03 23.93 23.93 32.14 32.14 30.00

1999 19.54 13.75 13.75 35.42 35.00 34.81 19.29 19.29 30.71 30.71 25.00

2004 14.36 14.00 11.07 21.82 22.81 22.32 18.57 18.57 NA 25.00 NA

2005 15.84 12.80 9.50 21.55 22.89 24.14 18.00 18.00 NA 25.00 NA

Japan Source: WITS Database

Table‐4: Various Types of Emissions for Bangladesh for the Period 1973‐2007

Year Total Fossil‐ Emissions Emissions Emissions Emissions Emissions Per Capita Emission Fuel from Gas from from Solid from Gas from Emission from Bunker Emission Fuels Liquid Fuels Flaring Cement rate Fuels Fuels Production

1973 1242 312 800 126 0 4 0.02 31 1974 1271 377 769 112 0 12 0.02 19 1975 1328 263 913 129 0 23 0.02 21 1976 1519 385 990 122 0 21 0.02 19 1977 1585 431 975 137 0 42 0.02 25 1978 1641 457 1023 115 0 46 0.02 33 1979 1813 523 1148 98 0 44 0.02 26 1980 2083 605 1311 122 0 46 0.02 51 1981 2163 666 1323 127 0 47 0.02 66 1982 2345 864 1283 155 0 44 0.03 39 1983 2246 961 1160 83 0 42 0.02 21 1984 2488 1219 1200 32 0 37 0.03 33 1985 2791 1388 1320 51 0 33 0.03 22 1986 3126 1565 1444 77 0 40 0.03 15 1987 3235 1618 1454 121 0 42 0.03 13 1988 3694 1910 1638 104 0 42 0.03 13 1989 3669 2024 1574 28 0 43 0.03 13 1990 4235 2068 1830 291 0 46 0.04 9 1991 4347 2472 1745 93 0 37 0.04 4 1992 4840 2622 2093 87 0 37 0.04 0 1993 4747 2836 1841 33 0 37 0.04 0 1994 5173 3131 1977 27 0 38 0.04 0 1995 6222 3556 2296 332 0 38 0.05 41 1996 6553 3684 2596 185 0 88 0.05 43 1997 6835 3620 2743 334 0 138 0.05 38 1998 6556 3909 2381 96 0 169 0.05 150 1999 6881 4262 2287 48 0 284 0.05 154 2000 7598 4607 2163 341 0 487 0.06 133 2001 8849 5159 2647 362 0 681 0.07 198 2002 9190 5428 2720 362 0 680 0.07 204 2003 9678 5838 2798 362 0 680 0.07 225 2004 10115 6280 2793 362 0 680 0.07 232 2005 10939 6751 3132 362 0 694 0.08 262 2006 11348 7292 3001 362 0 694 0.08 258 2007 11931 7791 3084 362 0 694 0.08 233 Source: