A History of NASA’s Decadal Planning Team and the Vision for Space Exploration, 1999-2004

Stephen Garber and Glen Asner

FISO Telecon 4 December 2019 Overview

I. The Announcement (January 2004) II. 20th C. Visions, Plans, & Programs III. Decadal Planning Team (DPT) IV. Columbia accident V. VSE Policymaking VI. Conclusions I. The Announcement

Goals: safe STS RTF retire Shuttle by 2010 complete ISS by 2010 develop new human- rated spacecraft (CEV) , , & beyond

Incremental Approach: “journey not a race” few firm commitments to deadlines or destinations ”go as you pay” implicit II. 20th Century Visions, Plans, Programs

Going to Mars is old idea (pre-1957) On the shoulders of giants (Apollo, etc.) Studies, proposals, plans, and more plans Another plan bites the dust (SEI, 1989) III. DPT

Context Successes, failures, opportunities

Steve Isakowitz post-Shuttle and ISS future

Beyond LEO

Daniel Goldin options for next president

reduce stovepiping

rationales for human exploration

Be ready for “bull market” III. DPT/NEXT

How was this study different? humans + robotics (Codes M and S) top-down: from HQ, HQ-led implementation long-term, 25-year strategy “sneaking up on Mars” science, not destination, driven “buying by the yard,” stepping stones IV. Columbia Accident

“We were at risk of losing the whole program right then and there” Bush’s support for human White House track NASA track CAIB report V. VSE Policymaking

NASA and the White House Consensus

return to flight

beginning of the end for Shuttle operations

focus on finishing ISS

humans beyond LEO

Final policy formulation needed to be done at different level V. VSE Policymaking

NSC Deputies Committee

Competition of ideas • Working group (Klinger, Isakowitz, Radzanowski, Schumacher) • Deputies (Armitage, Hadley, Marburger, Miers, O’Keefe)

Five proposals narrowed to three • NASA: “Vision for U.S. Space Exploration” • OMB: “Mars in our Lifetime” • NSC Hybrid: “Continuing Columbia’s Journey”

And then to one proposal

Budget and Timelines - ISS, Shuttle, Moon, Mars, Orbital Space Plane, Prometheus, heavy-launch vehicle, V. VSE Policymaking NSC Principals Committee

Key participants

Key issues already decided

Presidential concerns and decisions • Target dates and public support • Budget • Shuttle – CEV gap • International cooperation • Moon or Mars? Moon and Mars? V. Conclusions

Columbia accident

Constrained budget environment

Presidential leadership

DPT “on-the-shelf”

Mid-level NASA, NSC, NSC, OMB, OSTP staff

National policy

Third paradigm of