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Abstract Book AMOS-ICSHMO 2018 ABSTRACT BOOK PART 1 ORAL PRESENTATIONS 5-9 February 2017 UNSW, Sydney, Australia The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX) is the world’s first fully integrated research centre focused on understanding and predicting climate extremes. Research programs Heatwaves Climate Extreme and cold air Drought variability and rainfall outbreaks teleconnections 5106-clex-press-ad-1-v2.indd 1 16/1/18 6:06 pm Table of Contents Plenary Sessions ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Climate change science and solutions for Australia and our region ............................................... 1 Drivers of recent oceanic trends around Antarctica from the surface to the abyss ...................... 2 Natural drivers of interannual to decadal variations in surface climate ........................................ 4 Global warming and coral reefs ...................................................................................................... 5 Tropical cyclones and the global energy budget: their role and implications ................................ 6 Characterizing benefits of mitigation and avoided impacts, especially in the context of the Paris warming targets .............................................................................................................................. 7 Communicating science .................................................................................................................. 8 Theme 1: Oceanographic Processes and Observations .......................................................................... 9 1.1 Variability and change in the Indo-Pacific and Australian regional seas – A session in honour of Gary Meyers ........................................................................................................................................ 9 Gary Meyers – A scientific life well lived ........................................................................................ 9 Progress in understanding and predicting the IOD and its impacts ............................................. 10 Mean subsurface upwelling induced by intraseasonal variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 Interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport: a revisit based on 30-year expendable bathythermograph data ............................................................................................ 12 Potential Origins of Pacific Decadal Variability ............................................................................. 13 Evidence of a super-convergence zone in the subtropical Indo-Pacific Ocean ............................ 14 Northern boundary circulation properties of the South Australian Current System based on a gridded hydrography .................................................................................................................... 15 Building on the legacy of Gary Meyers, inaugural director of Australia’s Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) ............................................................................................................. 16 A decade of Integrated Marine Observing (imos) in Western Australia: Legacy and vision of Gary Meyers .......................................................................................................................................... 17 Extreme marine warming across tropical Australia during austral summer 2015-2016 .............. 18 1.2 Physical oceanography in the Southern Ocean and at the Antarctic margins............................ 19 Convection in the Southern Ocean – What controls it? ............................................................... 19 Impacts of broad-scale surface freshening of the Southern Ocean in a coupled climate model . 20 Antarctic sea-ice trends sustained by vertical ocean heat redistribution .................................... 21 22-year surface salinity changes in the seasonal ice zone near 140°e off Antarctica .................. 22 The role of convection in driving mixing in the Southern Ocean ................................................. 23 An Indian Deep Water pathway along the south coast of Australia ............................................. 24 The impact of localised dense water overflows on ocean heat transport towards Antarctica .... 25 Geothermal heating enhancing upwelling in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current ........................ 26 i Deep bottom mixed layer instability drives intrinsic variability of the Antarctic Slope Front ...... 27 Intercomparison of Antarctic ocean/sea-ice/ice-shelf interactions simulated by two models ... 28 Anatomy of a glacial meltwater discharge event in an Antarctic cove ......................................... 29 On the importance of the circulation induced by ice-shelf melt for heat exchanges across the Antarctic continental shelf ............................................................................................................ 30 Increased basal melting of the Mertz Glacier Tongue after calving ............................................. 31 Freshening by glacial meltwater enhances melting of ice shelves and reduces formation of Antarctic Bottom Water ................................................................................................................ 32 Hotspot of carbon fluxes along the Polar Front ............................................................................ 33 Eddies lengthen streamlines at standing meanders as observed by Argo floats ......................... 34 New perspectives on Southern Ocean jets, fronts and their variability ....................................... 35 Fingerprints of eddy stirring suppression in Antarctic Circumpolar Current jets ......................... 36 1.3 Ocean extreme events and their impacts ................................................................................... 37 Prediction of extreme ocean conditions in Australia .................................................................... 37 Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave ...................................... 38 Coral bleaching pathways under the control of regional temperature variability ....................... 39 Australian Wave Setup Hindcast ................................................................................................... 40 Marine heatwaves in the South Atlantic ...................................................................................... 41 1.4 Collaborative Research under the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Ocean Research (CSHOR) 42 Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR) ....................................................... 42 Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures arrest development of El Niño in 2014 ...................................................................................................................................................... 43 The acceleration and 60 year oscillation in global sea levels ....................................................... 44 The CSHOR Southern Ocean Dynamics Project ............................................................................ 45 Response of tropical Pacific climate variability to multi-decadal high latitude forcing ............... 46 Using past changes to improve models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet .............................................. 47 The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993-2014 ........................................... 48 Coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool ......................... 49 An episodic change in the SST-precipitation relationship during boreal spring in the western tropical Pacific and its associated atmospheric teleconnections ................................................. 50 1.5 South Atlantic Ocean: circulation, processes, observations and modelling ............................... 51 Climate drivers of the South Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water ................................................... 51 A budget analysis of the SAMOC at 22°S and 34.5°S using observational based reconstruction 52 Impact of mesoscale dynamics in the South Atlantic and the Agulhas region on the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ................................................................................ 53 1.6 Oceanic pathways from the Subtropical Southwest Pacific ....................................................... 54 Sea Surface Temperature Trends and Variability in the Southwest Pacific .................................. 54 ii Projected changes in southwest Pacific Ocean circulation and temperature extremes in a future climate........................................................................................................................................... 55 Variability of the subtropical mode water in the Southwest Pacific ............................................ 56 Direct observations of western boundary currents off northeastern Australia: seasonality and vertical structure ........................................................................................................................... 57 1.7 Sea-level science: from surface waves to global change ............................................................ 58 Predicting extreme
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