Political Report Volume 4, Issue 8 • September 2008

The Home Stretch When the Gallup Organization averaged its daily tracking numbers on the presidential contest in June and again in July, Barack Obama had a 3 percentage point lead over John McCain. In polling conducted in August before the Democratic convention began, Obama’s lead was also 3 percentage points. Both men had successful conventions. Gallup reported that Obama got a 4 point bounce at his convention and that McCain got a 6 point bounce at his. CBS showed a similar 3 point bounce for Obama, and a 6 point one for McCain. Today as we head into the home stretch, the race is still close. Both candidates have very similar solid favorable ratings. Democrats and Republicans are enthusiastic about their tickets. After their respective conventions, both nominees improved their standing somewhat in areas where they were weak. Americans felt a little better about Obama’s leader- ship abilities after the Democratic convention and about John McCain’s empathy and economic policies after the GOP gathering. Obama still bests McCain on change; McCain overwhelms Obama on experience.

The Run-up to the Conventions The Latest Data

If the election were held If the election today, would vote for were held today (Monthly averages*) Obama McCain Obama McCain Gallup Tracking Sep. 12–14 45% 47% March 2008 45% 46% Diageo/Hotline Tracking Sep. 12–14 44 43 April 45 45 Rasmussen Tracking Sep. 12–14 47 49 May 46 45 Gallup Tracking Sep. 11–13 45 47 June 46 43 Diageo/Hotline Tracking Sep. 11–13 45 43 July 46 43 PSRA/Newsweek Sep. 10–11 46 46 August 1–19 46 43 /OD Sep. 8–9 42 45 Note: Sample is registered voters. * August data are AP/GfK Sep. 5–10 44 48 from August 1–19. Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of August 19, 2008.

Favorable opinion of

Gallup/USA Today CNN/ORC Barack Obama 62% 60% John McCain 63 60 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics NBC News/Wall Street Journal* Barack Obama 57% 53% John McCain 60 50 Note: * Responses for NBC/WSJ are “positive feelings.” Sample is registered voters. Source: Gallup/USA Today, CNN/ORC, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, and NBC News/Wall Street Journal, September 2008.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org Candidate Assessments In many areas, the presidential contenders are very evenly matched, one possible explanation for the closeness of the con- test. Both are, for example, considered honest and trustworthy. When asked which candidate you would want to help make the toughest decision of your life, McCain has an edge. The candidates are evenly matched on a question about who you would put in charge of running your business.

Q: If you had to make the toughest decision of your life, Q: If you owned your own business, who would you who would you rather get advice from? rather put in charge of running it? August September Barack Obama 41% John McCain 42 Barack Obama 37% 34% John McCain 43 50 Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, August 2008. Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics.

Q: Regardless of how you might vote, which candidate Q: Regardless of how you might vote, which presidential do you . . . ? ticket do you think . . . ? Obama McCain Obama/ McCain/ Trust more to handle Biden ticket Palin ticket The situation in Iraq 39% 52% Has more experience 34% 52% Health care 49 35 Has better judgment 43 47 The economy 46 42 Will bring the right change The war on terrorism 35 55 to Washington 46 39 Energy independence 44 42 Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, September 2008. Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, September 2008.

Q: Do you think . . .? Q: Next, how effective do you think . . . ? Can handle the responsibilities of Would be very/somewhat effective commander-in-chief as president in . . . CNN/ORC Gallup/ In addressing problems USA Today of the U.S. economy Barack Obama 59% 55% Barack Obama 66% John McCain 79 84 John McCain 63 Source: CNN/ORC, September 2008. In changing the way government works Barack Obama 61% John McCain 54 Source: Gallup/USA Today, September 2008.

Q: Of the four candidates running . . . ? Would most like to have dinner with Barack Obama 40% 33 John McCain 15 8 Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, September 2008.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 2 The VP Picks The polls below were taken between September 5 and 8. Initial impressions in politics are important. Joe Biden made a good first impression, Sarah Palin a slightly better one. Majorities say both are qualified to step into the job of president, but Biden scores higher than Palin on this question. Men and women are confident that the mother of five did the right thing by getting into the race. Q: Now we would like to get your overall opinion of Q: How would you rate . . . ? some people in the news. As I read each name, please Speeches at the convention say if you have a . . . ? Excellent/good Favorable opinion of Unfavorable John McCain’s speech 52% 49% Joe Biden 30% Barack Obama’s speech 73 53 Sarah Palin 28 Sarah Palin’s speech 69 Note: The early September CNN/ORC poll showed that 51 percent Source: Pew Research Center, September 2008. had a favorable opinion of Joe Biden (28 percent unfavorable). Fifty- seven percent had a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin, and 27 per- cent an unfavorable one. Source: Gallup/USA Today, September 2008.

Q: Based on what you know about the [Republican/ Q: Based on what you know about [Joe Biden/ Democratic] vice presidential nominee [Sarah Palin/ Sarah Palin] . . . ? Joe Biden], do you think . . . ? Palin Biden Is qualified to serve as president Would make an if it becomes necessary Excellent/good Palin 52% Biden 66% Vice President 49% 45% Is not 39 Is not 22 Average 25 39 Not too good/poor 24 13 Source: Pew Research Center, September 2008. Source: CNN/ORC, September 2008. Q: Do you think. . .? Is a political insider Sarah Palin 23% Joe Biden 65 Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, September 2008.

Modern Feminism Q: Many people are talking about Republican vice presi- Q: Do you . . . ? dential candidate Sarah Palin’s personal family situation, Women’s response including the fact that she has young children and won- dering whether or not she is doing the right thing by Consider yourself getting into the race. Do you think . . . ? a feminist 34% Do not 61 Sarah Palin did the right thing getting Source: Gallup/USA Today, September 2008. into the race 70% Wrong thing 17 Note: Fifty-one percent of Democrats, 89 percent of Republicans, and 75 percent of independents said she did the right thing by get- ting into the race. Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, September 2008.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 3 Congress: Another Big Change Election? In response to an August Fox News/Opinion Dynamics question, 45 percent said it would be “good for the country” if all the current members of Congress were voted out of office and new ones replaced them, but 39 percent said this would be a bad idea. When asked, however, about their own member, a healthy majority says their member deserves re-election. In Gallup’s August data (not shown here), 36 percent preferred a Republican-controlled Congress and 47 percent preferred a Democratic-controlled body—a result Gallup says is similar to other big change Congressional elections. Q: Do you think it would be . . . ? Good for the country if all the current members of Congress were voted out of office and all new people were elected 45% Bad for the country 39 Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, August 2008.

Q: Please tell me whether you think each of the following political office-holders deserves to be re-elected, or not. How about . . . ? Actual net gain Your U.S. Representative Most members of Congress in election Yes No Yes No September 1992 54% 25% 32% 46% 10R July 1994 61 28 40 46 52R October 1998 69 17 58 27 5D September 2000 66 19 54 30 2D September 2002 67 19 57 29 8D October 2004 63 21 51 34 3R June 2006 62 25 38 51 31D July 2008 57 29 36 52 ? Source: The Gallup Organization.

Q: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your Open Seats Congressional district . . . ? September 2008 O The Republicans are defending 29 (Registered voters) 16 are considered vulnerable The Democratic candidate 48% 8 are toss ups The Republican candidate 45 5 likely or lean Democratic Source: Gallup/USA Today, September 2008. O The Democrats are defending 7 The Democratic candidate 49% 1 is a toss up The Republican candidate 46 Source: The Cook Political Report, September 2008. Source: CNN/ORC, September 2008.

Q: Do you . . . ? Approve of the way Congress is handling its job 20% Disapprove 73 Source: Gallup/USA Today, September 2008.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 4 Geriatric Exuberance? Barack Obama is doing especially well among young people in his race against John McCain, and the Democrats enjoy a huge lead among this group in party identification. Yet the Democrats have a problem that was summed up in the following way in a late summer release from Harris Interactive: “Obama’s lead is critically dependent on his 33-point lead among Echo Boomers, people under 32, but they are usually the least likely generation to actually vote. If they do not vote very heavily in November this would hurt Obama’s chances. McCain leads among ‘Matures,’ those over 62, by nine points, the generation that is usually the most likely to vote.” Harris’s point is reinforced by the historical Census data below. In the surveys, people are asked to recall how they voted on Election Day. Although more people recall voting than actually did vote in the years shown, the data set enables us to make over time comparisons about relative turnout. It confirms that young people are much less likely to turn out to vote than older individuals. In a Gallup poll taken in October 1971 after 18–20 year olds were given the vote, just 34 percent reported that they were registered to vote. Five months later, only 41 percent did. After Super Tuesday this year, ABC poll analyst Gary Langer reported that young voters did turn out disproportionately in the Democratic caucus in Iowa, but that their per- formance after that was inconsistent. Percent reported voting 80

70 65 year-olds and over

60 All ages 50

18–24 year-olds 40

30 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Source: U.S Census, Current Population Survey, February 2008.

Party Ratings

Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of . . ., and I’d like you to rate your feelings . . . ? The Republican Party The Democratic Party Positive 40% 49% Neutral 15 17 Negative 43 33 Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, September 2008.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 5 Initiatives and Referendums, 2008 The Initiative & Referendum Institute at the University of Southern California’s School of Law keeps track of ballot propositions. In its early August report, the Institute noted that voters in 30 states were set to decide 112 ballot measures, a number that will grow by Election Day. Social issues are still hot buttons. In 2000, voters in California approved Proposition 20 banning gay marriage. But the California Supreme Court overturned the measure this past May. November’s Proposition 8 is an attempt to over- turn the court ruling. The institute reports that 23 of 24 constitutional amendments to ban gay marriage have passed in recent years. Initiatives in Colorado and Nebraska seek to ban affirmative action based on race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in public employment and contracting. The state of California approved such a measure in 1996, Wash- ington in 1998, and Michigan in 2006. South Dakota and Colorado will try to ban abortion, and California will vote on a constitutional amendment to require parental notification and a waiting period before a minor can have an abortion. This year, Nevada, Ohio, and Oregon have measures that address eminent domain. Eleven of those were decided in 2006. Efforts to legalize marijuana have failed where they have been tried, but measures to decriminalize its use have been more successful. Voters will vote on two marijuana measures this fall, in Massachusetts and California. IRI provides the following information for 2008 Election Day initiatives and referendums: O 112 ballot propositions in 30 states in November O 39 are initiatives placed on the ballot by citizen petition, 63 are legislative measures placed on the ballot by legisla- tures, 8 are measures placed on the ballot by state commissions, and 2 were required by state conventions O California and Oregon have the most (12), followed by Florida (9), Colorado and South Dakota (7) Note: Data are from early August. Source: Initiative & Referendum Institute, University of Southern California. Prop. 13 Thirty Years Later Thirty years ago, California voters passed California voters Proposition 13, which reduced local prop- erty taxes and limited the amount they could be increased each year. The measure reverberated across the nation. In May 2008, Would not the Field Poll revisited the issue and found Would vote for that 57 percent of Californians would vote 23% in favor of the measure if it were up for a Proposition 13 vote again, while 23 percent would vote if it were up against it. Homeowners were more support- Not sure ive (64 percent) than renters (41 percent). for a vote Note: Sample is California registered voters. 20% again today Source: The Field Poll, May 2008. 57%

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 6 AEI’s Unconventional Indicators If hemlines go up as we move into an election year, or if it is a good year for Bordeaux wine, or if the National League wins the World Series, the Democratic candidate will win. When hemlines fall or stay the same, or the Bordeaux vintage is poor, or the American League wins, then it is a good GOP year. The best predictor though has been whether or not the Washington Redskins win their last home game before the election. If the Skins win, then the incumbent party tends to win. In fact, this indicator has been astonishingly accurate, getting the wrong result only once, in 2004, in the last fifteen elections. The results are below. Bordeaux Winning Hemlines Futures World Series Stocks Skins Party 1948 — — Cleveland (AL) Up Win Dem 1952 No change — Yankees (AL) Down Loss Rep 1956 No change Poor Yankees (AL) Up Win Rep 1960 Up Poor Pittsburgh (NL) Down Loss Dem 1964 Up Good St. Louis (NL) Up Win Dem 1968 Up Poor (AL) Up Loss Rep 1972 Down Poor Oakland (AL) Up Loss Rep 1976 Up Good Cincinnati (NL) Up Loss Dem 1980 Up Poor Philadelphia (NL) Up Loss Rep 1984 Up Poor Detroit (AL) Down Win Rep 1988 Down Good Los Angeles (NL) Up Win Rep 1992 Down Poor Toronto (AL)Up Loss Dem 1996 No change Good Yankees (AL) Up Win Dem 2000 Down Good Yankees (AL) Down Loss Rep 2004 Up Poor Boston (AL) Down Loss Rep Predictive Record: 9/14 9/13 10/15 8/15 14/15 Note: Our information on Bordeaux builds on an August 1984 New York Times article. We consulted a number of stores about hemlines.

Hillary Redux? Can’t Get No Satisfaction?

Would like to see Q: Generally speaking, would you say things . . . ? run In the Your Your for president again Would not country state life National 52% 47% Are going in Democrats 75 24 the right direction 18% 41% 76% Independents 50 49 Have pretty seriously Republicans 24 76 gotten off on the wrong track 76 53 20 Source: Gallup/USA Today, August 2008. Source: Harris Interactive, August 2008.

Who Will Win? Will win the election in November Barack Obama 52% Q: Regardless of who you support, and trying to be as John McCain 44 objective as possible, who do you think . . . ? Source: CNN/ORC, September 2008.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 7 Essential Reading for Elections

VITAL STATISTICS ON ABSENTEE AND EARLY VOTING AFTER THE PEOPLE VOTE CONGRESS 2008 Trends, Promises, and Perils A Guide to the Electoral College By Norman J. Ornstein, Michael By John C. Fortier Third Edition Malbin, Thomas Mann By Norman J. Ornstein, Walter Berns, Paperback, 5.5'' x 8.5'', 116 pages Akhil Amar, Vikram Amar, Martin Diamond Paperback, 192 pages AEI Press (Washington) Edited by John C. Fortier Press October 2006 (Washington) ISBN: 978-0-8447-4247-2 Paperback, 6'' x 9'',118 pages August 2008 Price: $ 20.00 AEI Press (Washington) ISBN: 978-0-8157-6665-0 August 2004 ISBN: 0844742023, Price: $ 15.00

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Fel- Research Assistants: Adam Foster, Editor; Jessica Leval. low; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Interns: Kevin Terhorst. Resident Fellow; and Ben Wattenberg, Senior Fellow.

Current Commentary Upcoming Election Watch: “Defending the Insiders” October 23, 2008 AEI resident scholar Norm Ornstein defends the inde- fensible in American politics, the loathsome Washing- AEI’s Election Watch series, which began in 1982, is ton insider. the longest-running election program in Washing- http://www.aei.org/publication28611/ ton. It brings together AEI’s nationally renowned team of political analysts: Michael Barone, Karlyn “McCain Flies His Campaign Past Obama” Bowman, John C. Fortier, and Norman J. Ornstein AEI resident fellow Michael Barone analyzes McCain’s to discuss 2008 campaign developments. To sign up maneuvering in the campaign. for the breakfast sessions please register online at http://www.aei.org/publication28614/ http://www.aei.org/electionwatch. If you have any questions, contact Adam Foster at [email protected] or Jessica Leval at [email protected].

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 8