The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses.” One of These Papers, First Published in the Journal of Geology in 1897, Was Quoted by John R

found an explanation for every new puzzle which presented itself. This disposition has propagated itself, and has come down to our time as an intellectual predilection, though the compass- The Method of Multiple ing of the entire horizon of knowledge has long since been an abandoned af- Working Hypotheses fectation. As in the earlier days, so still, it is the habit of some to hastily conjure up an expIanation for every With this method the dangers of parental new phenomenon that presents itself. Interpretation rushes to the forefront affection for a favorite theory can be circumvented. as the chief obligation pressing upon the putative wise man. Laudable as the T. C. Chamberlin effort at explanation is in itself, it is to be condemned when it runs before a serious inquiry into the phenomenon itself. A dominant disposition to find out what is, should precede and crowd As methods of study constitute the in Euclid precisely as laid down is an aside the question, commendable at a leading theme of our session, I have illustration of the former; the demon- later stage, “How came this so?” First chosen as a subject in measurable con- stration of the same proposition by a full facts, then interpretations. sonance the method of multiple work- merhod of one’s own or in a manner ing hypotheses in its application to distinctively individual is an illustration investigation, instruction, and citizen- of the latter; both lying entirely within Premature Theories ship. the realm of the known and the old. There are two fundamental classes Creative study, however, finds its The habit of precipitate explanation of study. The one consists in attempt- largest application in those subjects in leads rapidly on to the development of ing to follow by close imitation the which, while much is known, more re- tentative theories. The explanation of- processes of previous thinkers, or to mains to be known. Such are the fields fered for a given phenomenon is nat- acquire by memorizing the results of which we, as naturalists, cultivate: and urally, under the impulse of self-con- their investigations. It is merely sec- we are gathered for the purpose of sistency, offered for like phenomena as ondary, imitative, or acquisitive study. developing improved methods lying they present themselves, and there is The other class is primary or creative largely in the creative phase of study, soon developed a general theory ex- study. In it the effort is to think in- though not wholly so. planatory of a large class of phenom- dependently, or at least individually, in Intellectual methods have taken three ena similar to the original one. This the endeavor to discover new truth, phases in the history of progress thus general theory may not be supported or to make new combinations of truth, far. What may be the evolutions of by any further considerations than or at least to develop an individualized the future it may not be prudent to those which were involved in the first aggregation of truth. The endeavor is forecast. Naturally the methods we now hasty inspection. For a time it is likely to think for one’s self, whether the urge seem the highest attainable. These to be held in a tentative way with a thinking lies wholly in the fields of three methods may be designated, first, measure of candor. With this tentative previous thought or not. It is not neces- the method of the ruling theory; sec- spirit and measurable candor, the mind sary to this habit of study that the sub- ond, the method of the working hypoth- satisfies its moral sense, and deceives ject-material should be new; but the esis; and, third, the method of mul- itself with the thought that it is pro- process of thought and its results must tiple working hypotheses. ceeding cautiously and impartially to- be individual and independent, not the In the earlier days of intellectual de- ward the goal of ultimate truth. It mere following of previous lines of velopment the sphere of knowledge fails to recognize that no amount of thought ending in predetermined re- was limited, and was more nearly with- provisional holding of a theory, so long s&s. The demonstration of a nroblem in the compass of a single individual; as the view is limited and the investi- Thomas C. Chamberlin (1843-1928). a geologist, and those who assumed to be wise gation partial, justifies an ultimate con- was president of the University of Wisconsin at men, or aspired to be thought so, felt viction. It is not the slowness with the time this lecture was written. Later he was professor and director of the Walker Museum of the need of knowing, or at least seem- which conclusions are arrived at that the University of Chicago. In 1893 he founded the Journal of Geology, which he edited until ing to know, all that was known as a should give satisfaction to the moral his death. In 1908 he was president of the AAAS. justification of their claims. So, also, sense, but the thoroughness, the com- The article is reprinted from Science (old series), 15, 92 (1890). there grew up an expectancy on the pleteness, the all-sidedness, the impar- Reprints of this article are available. part of the multitude that the wise and tiality, of the investigation. Prices (cash with order): the learned would explain whatever It is in this tentative stage that the 1 50 cents (or 25 cents and stamped, self-addressed envelope) new thing presented itself. Thus pride affections enter with their blinding in- 2 to 9 45 cents each IO to 24 30 cents each and ambition on the one hand, and fluence. Love was long since represent- 25 or more 20 cents each expectancy on the other, developed the ed as blind, and what is true in the Address orders to AAAS, Chamberlin Reprints, 1515 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. putative wise man whose knowledge personal realm is measurably true in 20005. boxed the compass, and whose acumen the intellectual realm. Important s,;., 154 SCIENCE: VOL. 148.j : +he intellectual affections are as stimuli to survive, and to maintain its domi-

I -- and as rewards, they are nevertheless nance, because the phenomena them- dangerous factors, which menace the selves, being largely subjective, were integrity of the intellectual processes. plastic in the hands of the ruling idea; The moment one has offered an origi- but so soon as investigation turned it- nal explanation for a phenomenon self earnestly to an inquiry into nat- which seems satisfactory, that moment ural phenomena, whose manifestations affection for his intellectual child are tangible, whose properties are springs into existence; and as the ex- rigid, whose laws are rigorous, the de-

planation grows into a definite theory, fects of the method became manifest, hi‘; parental affections cluster about his and an effort at reformation ensued. int~l[ectLlZll offspring, and it grows more The first great endeavor was repres- and more dear to him, so that, while sive. The advocates of reform insisted he holds it seemingly tentative, it is that theorizing should be restrained, still lovingly tentative, and not im- and efforts directed to the simple de-

partially tentative. So soon as this pa- termination of facts. The effort was to rcnt;ll affection takes possession of the make scientific study factitious instead mincl. there is a rapid passage to the of causal. Because theorizing .in narrow adoption of the theory. There is an lines had led to manifest evils, theorizing unconscious selection and magnifying was to be condemned. The reformation of the phenomena that fall into har- urged was not the proper control and mony with the theory and support it. Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin was noted utilization of theoretical effort, but its and an unconscious neglect of those for his contributions to glaciology and for suppression. We do not need to go his part in formulating the Chamberlin- that fail of coincidence. The mind Moulton (planetesimal) hypothesis of the backward more than twenty years to lingers with pleasure upon the facts origin of the earth. find ourselves in the midst of this at- that fall happily into the embrace of tempted reformation. Its weakness lay the theory, and feels a natural cold- in its narrowness and its restrictive- nc,s toward those that seem refractory. vestigator dominated by a false ruling ness. There is no nobler aspiration Instinctively there is a special se:lrch- idea. His very errors may indeed stimu- of the human intellect than desire to ing-out of phenomena that support it. late investigation on the part of oth- compass the cause of things. The dis- for the mind is led by its desires. ers. But the condition is an unfortu- position to find explanations and to There springs up, also, an unconscious nate one. Dust and chaff are mingled develop theories is laudable in itself. pressing of the theory to make it fit with the grain in what should be a It is only its ill use that is reprehensi- the facts, and a pressing of the facts winnowing process. ble. The vitality of study quickly dis- to make them fit the theory. When appears when the object sought is a these biasing tendencies set in, the mind mere collocation of dead unmeaning rapidly degenerates into the partiality Ruling Theories Linger facts. of paternalism. The search for facts, The inefficiency of this simply re- the observation of phenomena and As previously implied, the method of pressive reformation becoming appar- their interpretation, are all dominated the ruling theory occupied a chief ent, improvement was sought in the hy affection for the favored theory un- place during the infancy of investiga- method of the working hypothesis. til it appears to its author or its advo- tion. It is an expression of the natural This is affirmed to be the scientific c:lle to have been overwhelmingly es- infantile tendencies of the mind, though method of the day. but to this I take tablished. The theory then rapidly rises in this case applied to its higher ac- exception. The working hypothesis dif- to the ruling’. position. and investiga- tivities, for in the earlier stages of de- fers from the ruling theory in that it tion. observation, and interpretation are velopment the feelings are relatively is used as a means of determining controlled and directed bv it. From greater than in, later stages. facts, and has for its chief function an (Induly favored child, it- readily be- Unfortunately it did not wholly pass the suggestion of lines of inquiry; the Conies master, and leads its au- away with the infancy of investigation, inquiry being made, not for the sake thor whithersoever it will. The subse- but has lingered along in individual in- of the hypothesis, but for the sake of quent history of that mind in respect stances to the present day, and finds facts. Under the method of the rul- to that theme is but the progressive illustration in universally learned men ing theory, the stimulus was directed dominance of a ruling idea. and pseudo-scientists of our time. to the finding of facts for the support Briefly summed up. the evolution is The defects of the method are obvi- of the theory. Under the working this: a premature explanation passes ous, and its errors great. If I were to hypothesis, the facts are sought for into a tentative theory, then into an name the central psychological fault, I the purpose of ultimate induction and adopted theory, and then into a ruling should say that it was the admission demonstration, the hypothesis being theory. of intellectual affection to the place but a means for the more ready de- M’hen the last stage has been that should be dominated by impartial velopment of facts and of their rela- reached. unless the theory happens, intellectual rectitude. tions, and the arrangement and preser- perchance, to be the true one, all hope SO long as intellectual interest dealt vation of material for the final in- results is gone. To be sure, chiefly with the intangible, so long it duction. y be brought forth by an in- was possible for this habit of thought It will be observed that the disiinc- tion is not a sharp one, and that a in varying proportions. The true ex- trivial in themselves are brought into working hypothesis may with the ut- planation is therefore necessarily com- significance by their bearings upon most ease degenerate into a ruling plex. Such complex explanations of the hypothesis, and by their causal in- theory. Affection may as easily cling phenomena are specially encouraged by dications. As an illustration, it is only about an hypothesis as about a the- the method of multiple hypotheses, necessary to cite the phenomenal in- ory, and the demonstration of the and constitute one of its chief merits. fluence which the Darwinian hypothe- one may become a ruling passion as We are so prone to attribute a phe- sis has exerted upon the investigations much as of the other. nomenon to a single cause, that, when of the past two decades. But a single we find an agency present, we are lia- working hypothesis may lead investiga- ble to rest satisfied therewith, and fail tion along a given line to the neglect of A Family of Hypotheses to recognize that it is but one factor, others equally important; and thus, and perchance a minor factor, in the while inquiry is promoted in certain Conscientiously followed, the meth- accomplishment of the total result. quarters, the investigation lacks in od of the working hypothesis is a Take for illustration the mooted ques- completeness. But if all rational hy- marked improvement upon the method tion of the origin of the Great Lake potheses relating to a subject are of the ruling theory; but it has its de- basins. We have this, that, and the worked co-equally, thoroughness is the fects-defects which are perhaps best other hypothesis urged by different stu- presumptive result, in the very nature expressed by the ease with which the dents as the cause of these great ex- of the case. hypothesis becomes a controlling idea. cavations; and all of these are urged In the use of the multiple method, To guard against this, the method of with force and with fact, urged justly the re-action of one hypothesis upon multiple working hypotheses is urged. to a certain degree. It is praclically another tends to amplify the recog- It differs from the former method in demonstrable that these basins were nized scope of each, and their mutual the multiple character of its genetic river-valleys antecedent to the glacial conflicts whet the discriminative edge conceptions and of its tentative inter- incursion, and that they owe their ori- of each. The analytic process, the de- pretations. It is directed against the gin in part to the pre-existence of those velopment and demonstration of crite- radical defect of the two other meth- valleys and to the blocking-up of their ria, and the sharpening of discrimina- ods; namely, the partiality of intellec- outlets. And so this view of their origin tion, receive powerful impulse from . tual parentage. The effort is to bring is urged with a certain truthfulness. the co-ordinate working of several up into view every rational explana- So, again, it is demonstrable that they hypotheses. r tion of new phenomena, and to de- were occupied by great lobes of ice, FertiIity in processes is also the natu- velop every tenable hypothesis respect- which excavated them to a marked ral outcome of the method. Each -ing their cause and history. The in- degree, and therefore the theory of hypothesis suggests its own criteria, vestigator thus becomes the parent of glacial excavation finds support in fact. its own means of proof, its own meth- a family of hypotheses: and, by his I think it is furthermore demonstrable ods of developing the truth; and if a parental relation to all, he is forbidden that the earth’s crust beneath these group of hypotheses encompass the to fasten his affections unduly upon basins was flexed downward, and that subject on all sides, the total outcome any one. In the nature of the case, the they owe a part of their origin to of means and of methods is full and danger that springs from affection is crust deformation. But to my judg- rich. counteracted, and therein is a radical ment neither the one nor the other, The use of the method leads to cer- difference between this method and the nor the third, constitutes an adequate tain peculiar habits of mind which two preceding. The investigator at the explanation of the phenomena. All deserve passing notice, since as a fat: outset puts himself in cordial sympathy these must be taken together, and pos- tor of education its disciplinary value and in parental relations (of adoption, sibly they must be supplemented by is one of importance. When faithfully if not of authorship) with every hy- other agencies. The problem, there- pursued for a period of years, it de- pothesis that is at all applicable to the fore, is the determination not only of velops a habit of thought anaIogous to case under investigation. Having thus the participation, but of the measure the method itself, which may be des- neutralized the partialities of his emo- and the extent, of each of these agen- ignated a habit of parallel or complex tional nature, he proceeds with a cer- cies in the production of the complex thought. Instead of a simple succes- tain natural and enforced erectness of result. This is not likely to be ac- sion of thoughts in linear order, the mental attitude to the investigation, complished by one whose working hy- procedure is complex, and the mind knowing well that some of his pothesis is pre-glacial erosion, or gla- appears to become possessed of the tellectual children will die before ma- cial erosion, or crust deformation, but power of simultaneous vision from dif- turity, yet feeling that several of them by one whose staff of working hy- ferent standpoints. Phenomena appear may survive the results of final in- potheses embraces all of these and any to become capable of being viewed vestigation, since it is often the out- other agency which can be rationahy anaIyticaIly and synthetically at once. come of inquiry that several causes conceived to have taken part in the It is not altogether unlike the study are found to be involved instead of a phenomena. of a landscape, from which there single one. In following a single hy- A special merit of the method is, comes into the mind myriads of lines pothesis, the mind is presumably led that by its very nature it promotes of intelligence, which are received and to a single explanatory conception. But thoroughness. The value of a working co-ordinated simultaneously, producing an adequate explanation often involves hypothesis lies largely in its suggestive- a complex impression which is re- the co-ordination of several agencies, ness of lines of inquiry that might corded and studied directly in its corn- which enter into the combined result otherwise be overlooked. Facts that are plexity. My description of this process

756 SCIENCE, VOL. 148 T. C. Chamberlin published two papers under the title of “The method of multiple working hypotheses.” One of these papers, first published in the Journal of Geology in 1897, was quoted by John R. Platt in his recent article “Strong inference” (Science, 16 Oct. 1964). Platt wrote: “This charming paper deserves to be reprinted.” Several readers, having had difficulty obtain- ing copies of Chamberlin’s paper, expressed agreement with Platt. One wrote that the article bad been reprinted in the Journal of Geology in 1931 and in the Scientific Monthly in Novem- ber 1944. Another sent us a photocopy. Several months later still another wrote that the Insti- tute for Humane Studies (Stanford, Calif.) had reprinted the article in pamphlet form this year. (>n consulting the 1897 version, we found a footnote in which Chamberlin had written: “A paper on this subject was read before the Society of Western Naturalists in 1892, and was published in a scientific periodical.” Library research revealed that “a scientific periodical” was Science itself, for 7 February 1890, and that Chamberlin had actually read the paper before the Society of Western Naturalists on 25 October 1889. The chief difference between the 1890 text and the 1897 text is that, as Chamberhn wrote in 1897: “The article has been freely altered and abbrevi- ated so as to limit it to aspects related to geological study.” The 1890 text, which seems to be the first and most general version of “The method of multiple working hypotheses,” is reprinted here. Typographical errors have been corrected, and subheadings have been added.

Is confessedly inadequate, and the af- thought, and hence words and thoughts affairs themselves. I refer especially to firmation of it as a fact would doubt- lose that close association which they those inquiries and inspections that pre- less challenge dispute at the hands of are accustomed to maintain with those cede the coming-out of an enterprise psychologists of the old school; but 1 whose silent as well as spoken thoughts rather than to its actual execution. The address myself to naturalists who I run in linear verbal courses. There is methods that are superior in scientific .: think can respond to its verity from therefore a certain predisposition on investigation should likewise be SU- ” their own experience. the part of the practitioner of this perior in those investigations that are method to taciturnity. the necessary antecedents to an in- We encounter an analogous diffi- telligent conduct of affairs. But I can ., Drawbacks of the Method culty in the use of the method with dwell only briefly on this phase of young students. It is far easier, and I the subject.

-_ The method has, however, its dis- think in general more interesting, for In education, as in investigation, it advantages. No good thing is without them to argue a theory or accept a has been much the practice to work : its drawbacks; and this very habit of simple interpretation than to recognize a theory. The search for instructional mind, while an invaluable acquisition and evaluate the several factors which methods has often proceeded on the for purposes of investigation. intro- the true elucidation may require. To presumption that there is a definite duces difficulties in expression. It iS illustrate: it is more to their taste to patent process through which all stu- obvious, upon consideration, that this be taught that the Great Lake basins dents might be put and come out with method of thought is impossible of w-ere scooped out by glaciers than to results of maximum excellence; and verbal expression. We cannot put into be urged to conceive of three or more hence pedagogical inquiry in the past words more than a single line of great agencies w-orking successively or has very largely concerned itself with thought at the same time; and even in simultaneously, and to estimate how the inquiry, “What is the best method?” that the order of expression must be much was accomplished by each of rather than with the inquiry, “What conformed to the idiosyncrasies of the these agencies. The comples and the are the special values of different ’ language, and the rate must be rela- quantitative do not fascinate the young methods, and what are their several tively slow. When the habit of complex student as they do the veteran investi- advantageous applicabilities in the var- : thought is not highly developed, there gator. ied work of instruction?” The past is usually a leading line to which others doctrine has been largely the doctrine i are subordinate, and the difficulty of of pedagogical uniformitarianism. But ! expression does not rise to serious pro- Multiple Hypotheses and the faculties and functions of the mind $ Portions; but when the method of Practical Affairs are almost, if not quite, as varied as z Shultaneous vision along different the properties and functions of mat- i lines is developed so that the thoughts It has not been our custom to think ter: and it is perhaps not less absurd ‘i, running in different channeIs are of the method of working hypotheses to assume that any specific method 0 nearly equivalent, there is an obvious & as applicable to instruction or to the of instructional procedure is more ef- embarrassment in selection and a dis- practical affairs of life. We have USU- fective than all others, under any and nclination to make the attempt. Fur- ally regarded it as but a method of all circumstances, than to assume that t hermore, the impossibility of express- science. But I believe its application one principle of interpretation is i ng the mental operation in words leads to practical affairs has a value CO- equaIly applicable to all the phenom- tn their disuse in the silent process of ordinate with the importance of the ena of nature. As there is an endless ‘) I,... .^._ 151 variety of mental processes and combi- to recognize correctly the one which There is another and closely alli nations and an indefinite number of does appear. The method has a further danger in the application of t orders of procedure, the advantage of good effect. The mind, having antici- method. In its highest deveiopment different methods under different con- pated the possible phases which may presumes a mind supremely sensitive ,i” ditions is almost axiomatic. This being arise, has prepared itself for action to every grain of evidence. Like a pair+? granted, there is presented to the under any one that may come up, and of delicately poised scales, every added’@: teacher the problem of selection and it is therefore ready-armed, and is pre- particle on the one side or the other’%: of adaptation to meet the needs of disposed to act in the line appropriate produces its effect in oscillation. But‘: any specific issue that may present to the event. It has not set itself rigidly such a pair of scales may be altogether ‘,g itself. It is important, therefore, that in a fixed purpose, which it is pre- too sensitive to be of practical value% the teacher shall have in mind a full disposed to follow without regard to in the rough affairs of life. The balancea array of possible conditions and states contingencies. It has not nailed down of the exact chemist are too delicate Z of mind which may be presented. in the helm and predetermined to run a for the weighing-out of coarse corn. ;I order that, when any one of these specific course, whether rocks lie in modities. Despatch may be more im- ‘, shall become an actual case. he may the path or not; but. with the helm portant than accuracy. So it is possible’ recognize it, and be ready for the in hand, it is ready to veer the ship for the mind to be too much con. emergency. according as danger or advantage dis- cerned with the nice balancings of evi- Just as the investigator armed with covers itself. dence, and to oscillate too much and many working hypotheses is more It is true, there are often advantages too long in the endeavor to reach likely to see the true nature and sig- in pursuing a fixed predetermined exact results. It may be better, in the nificance of phenomena when they course without regard to obstacles or gross affairs of life, to be less precise present themselves, so the instructor adverse conditions. Simple dogged res- and more prompt. Quick decisions, equipped with a full panoply of hy- olution is sometimes the salvation of though they may contain a grain of potheses ready for application more an enterprise: but, while glorious suc- error, are oftentimes better than pre. readily recognizes the actuality of the cesses have been thus snatched from cise decisions at the expense of time. situation, more accurately measures its the very brink of disaster, overwhelm- The method has a special beneficent significance, and more appropriately ing calamity has in other cases fol- application to our social and civic re. applies the methods which the case lowed upon this course, when a rea- lations. Into these relations there enter, calls for. sonable regard for the unanticipated as great factors, our judgment of oth- The application of the method of elements would have led to success. ers, our discernment of the nature of multiple hypotheses to the varied af- So there is to be set over against the their acts, and our interpretation of fairs of life is almost as protean as great achievements that follow on their motives and purposes. The meth- the phases of that life itself. but cer- zC-.gged <&?rrppp..~ -”“rex disa,>iers which od of multiple hypotheses. in its an. tain general aspects may be taken as are equally its result. plicarion here, skifiifs in tieuied con- typical of the whole. What I have just trast to the method of the ruling said respecting the application of the theory or of the simple working method to instruction may apply. with Danger of Vacillation hypothesis. The primitive habit is to a simple change of terms, to almost interpret the acts of others on the any other endeavor which we are The tendency of the mind, accus- basis of a theory. Childhood’s uncon- ~ called upon to undertake. We enter tomed to work through multiple hy- scious theory is that the good are good, upon an enterprise in most cases with- potheses, is to sway to one line of pol- and the bad are bad.’ From the good out full knowledge of all the factors or another, according as the the child expects nothing but good; that will enter into it, or all of the balance of evidence shall incline. This from the bad, nothing but bad. To ex- possible phases which it may develop. is the soul and essence of the method. pect a good act from the bad, or a It is therefore of the utmost impor- It is in general the true method. Never- bad act from the good, is radically at tance to be prepared to rightly compre- theless there is a danger that this yield- variance with childhood’s mental meth- hend the nature, bearings, and influ- ing to evidence may degenerate into ods. Unfortunately in our social and ence of such unforeseen elements when unwarranted vacillation. It is not al- civic affairs too many of our fellow- they shall definitely present themselves ways possible for the mind to balance citizens have never outgrown the rul- as actualities. If our vision is nar- evidence with exact equipoise. and to ing theory of their childhood. rowed by a preconceived theory as to determine, in the midst of the execu- Many have advanced a step farther, what will happen, we are almost cer- tion of an enterprise, what is the and employ a method analagous to tain to misinterpret the facts and to measure of probability on the one side that of the working hypothesis. A cer- misjudge the issue. If, on the other or the other: and as difficulties present tain presumption is made to attach tn hand, we have in mind hypothetical themselves, there is a danger of being the acts of their fellow-beings, and that forecasts of the various contingencies biased by them and of swerving from which they see is seen in the light of that may arise, we shall be the more the course that was really the true that presumption, and that which they likely to recognize the true facts one. Certain limitations are therefore construe is construed in the light of when they do present themselves. In- to be placed upon the application of that presumption. They do not go to stead of being biased by the anticipa- the method, for it must be remembered the lengths of childhood’s method by tion of a given phase, the mind is that a poorer line of policy consistently assuming positively that the good are rendered open and alert by the anti- adhered to may bring better results wholly good, and the bad wholly bad; cipation of any one of many phases, than a vacillation between better poli- but there is a strong presumption in and is free not only, but is predisposed, cies. their minds that he concerning whom

158 SCIENCE. VOL. 148 hey have an ill opinion will act from fairly, and to accept that interpreta- The total outcome is greater care in esponding motives. It requires pos- tion to which the weight of evidence ascertaining the facts, and greater dis- dence to overthrow the it&t- inclines, not that which simply fits our crimination and caution in drawing the working hypothesis. working hypothesis or our dominant conclusions. I am confident, therefore, ethod of multiple hypotheses theory. The outcome, therefore, is that the general application of this s broadly that the acts of a better and truer observation and juster method to the affairs of social and civic being may be diverse in their and more righteous interpretation. life would go far to remove those their moves, their purposes, misunderstandings, misjudgments, and rice in their whole moral char- misrepresentations which constitute so ctcr; that they may be good though Imperfections of Knowledge pervasive an evil in our social and our dominant character be bad; that political atmospheres, the source of im- may be bad though the dominant There is a third result of great im- measurable suffering to the best and cter be good; that they may be portance. The imperfections of our most sensitive souls. The misobserva- od and partly bad, as is the knowledge are more likely to be de- tions, the misstatements, the misinter- t in the greater number of the tected, for there will be less confidence pretations, of life may cause less gross plex activities of a human being. in its completeness in proportion as suffering than some other evils; but er the method of multiple hypothe- there is a broad comprehension of the they, being more universal and more ;; scs. it is the first effort of the mind to possibilities of varied action, under subtle, pain. The remedy lies, indeed, ,$ set truly what the act is, unbeclouded similar circumstances and with similar partly in charity, but more largely in ! by the presumption that this or that appearances. So, also. the imperfec- correct intellectual habits, in a pre- ’ has hcen done because it accords with tions of evidence as to the motives dominant, ever-present disposition to : our ruling theory or our working and purposes inspiring the action will see things as they are, and to judge hypothesis. Assuming that acts of sim- become more discernible in proportion them in the full light of an unbiased + ihtr general aspect may readily take to the fulness of our conception of weighing of evidence applied to all ;Iny one of several different phases, what the evidence should be to dis- possible constructions, accompanied by the mind is freer to see accurately tinguish between action from the one a withholding of judgment when the what has actually been done. So, again. or the other of possible motives. The evidence is insufficient to justify con- in our interpretations of motives and necessary result will be a less disposi- clusions. purposes, the method assumes that tion to reach conclusions upon im- I believe that one of the greatest these may have been any one of man>-. pe:fizc: groands. So, also, there will moral reforms that lies immediately ;tad the first duty is to ascertain which be a less inciination to misapply evi- before us consists in the general in- of possible motives and purposes ac- dence: for, several constructions be- troduction into social and civic life of tually prompted this individual action. ing definitely in mind, the indices of that habit of mental procedure which Going with this effort there is a pre- the one motive are less liable to be is known in investigation as the method disposition to balance all evidence mistaken for the indices of another. of multiple working hypotheses.

young people who have nothing else to do. They are ill suited to men and women who must fit their learning into a busy life. For years a small number of devoted Education as a Way of Life educators have sought to meet the needs of this latter group, but they have not received much cooperation Traditional arrangements for education must be from the rest of the academic world. That state of affairs appears to be supplemented by a system designed for lifelong learning. changing. In the making now are some highly flexible arrangements to make educa- John W. Gardner tion available to anyone able and will- ing to learn, under circumstances suited to his needs. To indicate in con- crete terms what such a system might Nothing is more obsolete than the quit school prematurely will disappear. look like, I am going to describe cer- notion that education is something that The anxiety stems from the fact that tain activities of an imaginary univer- takes place in a solid block of years today leaving school signifies the end sity-let us call it Midland State Uni- between. roughly, ages 6 and 22. of education. Under the new system versity. (It is not necessary that all From now on, the individual is go- there will be no end to education. these activities be sponsored by a uni- ing 10 have to seek formal instruction Unfortunately, our institutional ar- versity-a point which I discuss later.) at many points throughout his career. rangements for lifelong education are Under such a system, much of the ridiculously inadequate. Most educa- The author i7 president of Carnegie Corporo- tion of New York. 589 Fifth Avenue, New Present anxiety over young people who tional institutions are still designed for York 10017.

159