Determinants of Levered Portfolio Performance Robert M. Anderson∗ Stephen W. Bianchiy Lisa R. Goldbergz University of California at Berkeley April 21, 2014x Forthcoming in Financial Analysts Journal Abstract The cumulative return to a levered strategy is determined by five elements that fit together in a simple, useful formula. A previously undocumented element is the covariance between leverage and excess return to the fully invested source portfolio underlying the strategy. In an empirical study of volatility-targeting strategies over the 84-year period 1929{2013, this covariance accounted for a reduction in return that substantially diminished the Sharpe ratio in all cases. Key terms: Leverage; Sharpe ratio; source portfolio; trading cost; financing cost; unintended market timing; magnified source return; excess borrowing return; risk parity; pension fund; hedge fund; fixed leverage; dynamic leverage; volatility target ∗Department of Economics, 530 Evans Hall #3880, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3880, USA, email:
[email protected]. yDepartment of Economics, 530 Evans Hall #3880, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3880, USA, email:
[email protected]. zDepartment of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3880, USA, email:
[email protected]. xThis research was supported by the Center for Risk Management Research at the University of Cali- fornia, Berkeley. We are grateful to Patrice Boucher, Dan diBartolomeo, Claude Erb, Ralph Goldsticker, Nick Gunther, Rodney Sullivan, Betsy Treynor, Jack Treynor, Barton Waring and Sorina Zahan and two anonymous referees for insightful comments on the material discussed in this article. Earlier versions of this paper circulated under the title \The Decision to Lever." 1 1 A Simple Two-Period Example In this paper, we show that there are five elements that determine the cumulative return to a levered strategy, and they fit together in a simple, useful formula.