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City of Dana Point Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment

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City of Dana Point Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Produced for Client City of Dana Point Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Prepared For: City of Dana Point, Planning Division 33282 Golden Lantern Dana Point, CA 92629 Prepared By: 4225 East Conant Street Long Beach, CA 90808 October 2019 Funded by CCC Grant LCP 16-10 City of Dana Point Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment | Page ii Table of Contents ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................................... V DOCUMENT VERIFICATION ......................................................................................................................................................... VII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................... VIII 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Study Approach ............................................................................................................................................................. 1 2. COASTAL SETTING ................................................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Study Reaches .............................................................................................................................................................. 4 3. COASTAL RESOURCES ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 4. COASTAL PROCESSES .......................................................................................................................................................... 8 4.1 Littoral Processes and Sediment Supply ...................................................................................................................... 8 4.2 Shoreline Change ....................................................................................................................................................... 10 4.2.1 Long-term Shoreline Change ........................................................................................................................ 10 4.2.2 Seasonal Shoreline Change .......................................................................................................................... 12 4.3 Oceanographic Conditions .......................................................................................................................................... 13 4.3.1 Water Levels ................................................................................................................................................. 13 4.3.2 Waves ........................................................................................................................................................... 15 5. SEA LEVEL RISE ................................................................................................................................................................... 19 5.1 What is Sea Level Rise? ............................................................................................................................................. 19 5.2 Projections and Probability .......................................................................................................................................... 19 5.3 Selected Sea Level Rise Scenarios ............................................................................................................................ 21 6. SEA LEVEL RISE HAZARD MAPPING .................................................................................................................................. 23 6.1 CoSMoS Sea Level Rise Scenarios ............................................................................................................................ 23 6.2 Coastal Flooding ......................................................................................................................................................... 23 6.3 Shoreline Erosion Projections ..................................................................................................................................... 24 6.4 Cliff Erosion Projections .............................................................................................................................................. 25 7. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT .......................................................................................................................................... 27 7.1 North Dana Point ......................................................................................................................................................... 27 7.2 Dana Point Harbor ...................................................................................................................................................... 29 7.3 San Juan Creek & Adjacent Facilities ......................................................................................................................... 32 7.3.1 JB Latham Treatment Plant , South Orange County Wastewater Authority (SOCWA) ................................. 32 7.4 Doheny State Beach ................................................................................................................................................... 33 7.5 Capistrano Beach Park ............................................................................................................................................... 35 7.6 Capistrano Beach Development ................................................................................................................................. 36 7.7 Poche Beach ............................................................................................................................................................... 40 7.8 Beach Access and Recreation .................................................................................................................................... 42 7.9 Ecological Resources .................................................................................................................................................. 43 7.9.1 Dana Point Headland Conservation Area ..................................................................................................... 44 7.9.2 Dana Point State Marine Conservation Area ................................................................................................ 44 7.9.3 Sandy Beach Habitat ..................................................................................................................................... 45 7.9.4 Nearshore and Estuarine Marine Habitat ...................................................................................................... 45 7.10 Social Vulnerability ...................................................................................................................................................... 47 7.10.1 Vulnerable Populations ................................................................................................................................. 47 City of Dana Point Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment | Page iii 7.11 Environmental Justice ................................................................................................................................................. 48 8. ADAPTATION MEASURES .................................................................................................................................................... 50 8.1 Understanding Sea Level Rise Hazards ..................................................................................................................... 50 8.2 Managing Development in Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................... 51 8.3 Coastal Hazard Reduction .......................................................................................................................................... 52 8.4 Community-Scale Hazard Mitigation ........................................................................................................................... 53 8.5 Adaptation Measure Evaluation .................................................................................................................................. 54 8.5.1 North Dana Point - Rocky Intertidal Habitat Restoration ............................................................................... 54 8.5.2 North Dana Point - Bluff Monitoring ............................................................................................................... 58 8.5.3 Dana Point Harbor - Targeted Infrastructure Upgrades ................................................................................ 61 8.5.4 Dana Point Harbor - Maintain Outer Harbor Breakwaters ............................................................................. 64 8.5.5 North and South Dana Point - Regional Beach Nourishment ....................................................................... 67 8.5.6 South Dana Point - Hybrid Dune Living Shorelines ......................................................................................
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