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Two-Wheeler Sector- Re-Initiating Coverage

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Two-Wheeler Sector- Re-Initiating Coverage Institutional Equities Two-wheeler Sector 28 January 2020 Shape shifting in the wake of BS-VI and Electrification View: Neutral to Positive Indian Two Wheeler (2W) segment volumes have declined by 14% YoY in the last 12 months due to increased cost of ownership, weak consumer sentiment amid slowdown in the Anish Rankawat economy and subdued rural demand. With BS-VI we see further increase in cost of Research Analyst ownership in the range of 6-15% with the commuter segment witnessing the higher end of [email protected] that range. In a rising cost scenario we see down-trading happening towards the <=125cc segment and hence this segment has gained 160bps YoY of motorcycle share in YTDFY20. +91 22 6273 8172 We expect this to continue post BS-VI cost increases. Secondly, our economist expects Ronak Mehta farm income to see a sharp growth of 15% YoY in FY20 whose lag effect could support rural sales in FY21, which will work in favour of the Motorcycle segment due to higher Research Associate correlation. Thirdly, we believe that the rising share of scooters in the 2W space has [email protected] plateaued out and we see a higher conversion to EVs in this segment. Most of the E2Ws +91 22 6273 8176 sold in India are scooters and in FY19 the sales of electric scooters were almost 1.9% of ICE scooter sales. Currently, E2W sales are dominated by Hero Electric and start-ups like Ampere, Okinawa and Ather but mainstream OEMs like Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor have entered the segment this year. This could lead to a faster adoption of EVs in scooters. One-Year Indexed Performance Rising cost scenario leads to down-trading and augurs well for Commuter segment: 2Ws had a 120 steep price increase of almost 15% post insurance cost increase in September 2018 and 110 implementation of new safety norms in April 2019. This, we believe, has led to down-trading to sub- 100 125cc segment in motorcycles, which has also compelled OEMs like Bajaj Auto to launch a 125cc 90 version of Pulsar. Sub-125cc segment has gained 160 bps YoY of motorcycle share YTDFY20 and 80 220bps over FY17 share. We believe that post BS-VI price increase this trend of down-trading will 70 continue and will work in favour of the segment leader – Hero MotoCorp. 60 Expected farm income growth to support rural sales and hence motorcycle sales: Motorcycles are Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 initiating initiating Coverage S&P BSE AUTO Nifty 50 - rural centric products as it’s the only mode of commute due to lack of public transport system. Also, 1/3rd of the rural households own 2W vs 1/7th of urban households and hence there is a correlation Source: Bloomberg between farm income and Motorcycle sales growth. Our economist expects farm income to grow by Re 15% YoY in FY20 vs a 4% growth in FY19. This rise should reflect in rural spending in FY21 and hence could support motorcycle sales. We believe once the BS-VI price increases settle down, rural demand should drive motorcycle sales in FY21-22. Scooter share seem to have plateaued out and incremental growth will come from e-scooters: Scooter segment has had a good run as its share in 2Ws has increased from a low of 12.9% in FY06 and has peaked out at 33.3% in FY18. Since then, it has been hovering around 31-32%, which could indicate a plateauing out of its share. At the same time, electric 2Ws, which are largely scooters, have seen a huge jump from the sale of 55,000 units in FY18 to 126,000 units in FY19 i.e. 1.9% of the Scooter segment. Scooters are more likely to convert to electric first as the ride quality and cost of ownership are comparable. Plus, post BS-VI price increase the acquisition cost will be further bridged. Currently, E2W sales are dominated by Hero Electric and start-ups like Ampere, Okinawa and Ather but mainstream OEMs like Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor have also entered this segment this year. This could lead to a faster adoption of EVs in scooters. Re-initiate coverage on Hero, Bajaj and TVS: We reinitiate coverage on Hero MotoCorp with a BUY rating as we believe that the rural revival and down-trading in a rising price scenario works well for its motorcycle sales. We have an Accumulate rating on Bajaj Auto as all the positives like export momentum and 3W sales growth are priced in. For TVS Motor we believe that the premium valuation is unwarranted owing to lower volume growth and pressure on margins and hence we have a Sell rating. We acknowledge that Bajaj and TVS have entered the EV segment with their scooters which gives them an early mover advantage but we aren’t sure of their capacity and product acceptance yet. Hence, we have not incorporated the same in our numbers. Market capitalisation CMP Target (%) Up/ EPS (Rs) P/E (x) RoE (%) Companies Rating (Rsbn) (US$bn) (Rs) Price (Rs) (Down) FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E Hero MotoCorp Buy 490.4 6.8 2,455 3,107 27 165.0 182.9 205.6 14.9 13.4 11.9 22.9 22.4 22.2 Bajaj Auto Acc 891.0 12.4 3,079 3,195 4 162.1 179.2 200.4 19.0 17.2 15.4 19.1 18.7 18.5 TVS Motor Sell 221.0 3.1 465 394 (15) 15.7 16.5 19.4 29.7 28.2 24.0 19.2 17.7 18.2 Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Institutional Equities Table of Content Bharat Stage Six……. …………………………………….………………………………………..…….….………...03 BS-VI Regulatory Requirement for Emission……………………………………………..……...……….03 On-Board Diagnostic - Regulatory Requirement……………………………………………..…….…….03 Changes required in the technology……………………………………………..………………..……….04 Status check……………………………………………..……...………………………..…………………..05 Electric two wheelers………………………………………………………...……………………………...…...…….07 EV start-ups………………………………………………………...………………………...…….…..……09 What are incumbents doing? ………………………………………………………....…………….….….13 E2W Models currently available for sale ………………………………………………………...………….….…..14 FAME II: Boom or Bane? ………………………………………………………...……………………..….15 State Policies on EV ………………………………………………………...………………………….….16 Understanding the Industry …………….…………………………………………………………….…….……...….17 Competitive intensity ………………………………………………………...………………………….….18 Rural recovery could drive motorcycle sales in medium term…………………………………….….…20 Comparing Hero, Bajaj and TVS – Story in Charts …...……..…………………………………………………..…21 Companies Hero MotoCorp..……………………………………………………………….………………............................…..25 Bajaj Auto…….……………………………………………...…………………….………………...………...…..……37 TVS Motor……………………………………………………………………………………….…….……….......……49 Automobile Sector Institutional Equities Bharat Stage Six (BS-VI) Indian Automobile industry is moving to Bharat Stage Six (BS-VI) emission regulation, which is equivalent to current European standards (EU). But the way it’s different is that we are leapfrogging from BS-IV to BS-VI. The government took this bold decision in order to reduce pollution. No country has ever done this. So, from 1st April 2020 no new BS-IV vehicle will be registered. Two-wheelers are the largest vehicle class in India, both in terms of vehicle population and new vehicle sales mix. As a result, they become a significant source of pollutant emissions and have a significant impact on air quality, predominantly in urban areas. The BS VI regulations largely align emission limits for 2Ws vehicles with the most stringent standards adopted for similar vehicle types in the EU – Euro 5, and ensure that these vehicles will become less polluting. BS-VI emission standards are set for Class 1-3 two-wheelers equipped with Spark Ignition (SI) engines, which account for the majority of the two-wheeled vehicle population in India, and separately for two-wheelers fitted with Compression Ignition (CI) engines. BS-VI Regulatory Requirement for Emission When we say a motorcycle is BS-VI compliant, there are certain parameters which make it eligible to be called so. The major deciding factor is the amount of emission of three gases – Carbon Monoxide (Co), Hydrocarbon (HC) and Nitrogen Oxide (NOx). Now, there is a difference in the permitted quantity of emission of these gases in BS-IV and BS-VI norms. Relative to BS-IV levels, NOX emission limits for these two-wheeled vehicle classes are reduced by between 70% and 85%. For an engine to be compliant with BS-IV regulations, the permitted CO, NOx and HC+NOx levels are 1.970gm/km, 0.20gm/km and 0.40gm/km, respectively. Under the BS-VI regulations, HC and NOx are calculated separately. Here, while CO should be up to 1.0gm/km, the HC and NOx need to be under 0.10gm/km and 0.06gm/km. As can be observed, the granted levels of emission of these toxic gases are considerably lesser under BS-VI regulations compared to BS-IV norms. Exhibit 1: BS-IV emission requirements HC+NOx* Stage Class CO NOx SHED ≤ 2 g SHED ≤ 6 g Class 1 & 2-1 1.403 0.39 0.79 0.59 BS IV Class 2-2 1.970 0.34 0.67 0.47 Class 3-1 & 3-2 1.970 0.20 0.40 0.20 Source: ARAI, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, * Limit depends on the result of the evaporative emission test (SHED) Exhibit 2: BS-VI emission requirements Stage Type CO HC NMHC NOx PM Spark Ignition engine(SI) 1.0 0.10 0.068 0.06 0.0045 BS VI Compression Ignition engine (CI) 0.50 0.10 0.068 0.09 0.0045 Source: ARAI, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research On-Board Diagnostic - Regulatory Requirement All vehicles manufactured in India from April 1, 2020 onwards, including two- and three-wheelers, will have to be equipped with on-board diagnostic systems to check the level of emissions.
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