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External Displaced Syrians and Compatriots Remaining in the Home Country: Evidence on Human Capital and Values from Vienna and Damascus

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External Displaced Syrians and Compatriots Remaining in the Home Country: Evidence on Human Capital and Values from Vienna and Damascus External displaced Syrians and compatriots remaining in the home country: Evidence on human capital and values from Vienna and Damascus Zakarya Al Zalak1, Bernhard Rengs2, Judith Kohlenberger3 and Isabella Buber-Ennser2 1 Technological Statistical Institute, Damascus, Syria 2 Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), Vienna Institute of Demography (Austrian Academy of Sciences), Vienna, Austria 3 Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department for Socioeconomics, Institute for Social Policy, Vienna, Austria Corresponding authors: [email protected] Paper presented at the PAA 2018, Denver Work in progress April 6, 2018 Do not cite without authors’ permission Abstract The large number of displaced persons originating from the Middle East has recently initiated various research projects on forced migration, especially in Europe where Germany, Austria and the Nordic countries witnessed comparable high inflows of asylum seekers. The current study aims to compare external displaced Syrians arriving in Austrian in 2015 and their compatriots remaining in the home country, with a focus on human capital and values. It builds on DiPAS (Displaced Persons in Austria Survey), a social survey among displaced persons in and around Vienna (carried out in 2015) as well as on a sister survey among persons residing in and around Damascus, in fall 2017 and beginning of 2018. The current research concentrates on individuals’ socio-demographic characteristics like education and family context, as well as on attitudes and values. It aims to find out if Syrians seeking refuge in Europe differ from their compatriots in and around Damascus. Keywords: Syria, human capital, values, displaced persons. 1 1. Introduction The violent conflicts in Syria, starting in 2011, have led to forced migration within and outside the country. Increasingly, empirical evidence becomes available on externally displaced persons from Syria and other countries, arriving in Europe in recent years, especially in 2015 (Brücker, Rother, & Schupp, 2016; Buber-Ennser et al., 2016; Hainmüller, Hangartner, & Lawrence, 2016; Ichou, 2014; Kohlbacher & Schiocchet, 2017). Further empirical evidence stems from forced migrants living in Jordan, Lebanon or Turkey (Alpak et al., 2015; Ghattas, Sassine, Seyfert, Nord, & Sahyoun, 2015; Habib, Hojeij, Elzein, Chaaban, & Seyfert, 2014; Özer, Sirin, & Oppedal, 2013). Given their large numbers, refugees constitute an important element of global population dynamics and are receiving increasing attention in demography and social sciences (Hugo, Abbasi-Shavazi, & Kraly, 2017). However, knowledge not only on numbers but also on sociodemographic characteristics of those remaining in the country remains fragmented, especially as long as armed conflicts and internal and external displacement continues. The present study addresses an important research gap that stems from the scarcity of quantitative data and studies on the population on Syrian territory. The current study aims to shed light on persons living in and around the Syrian capital in 2017/18. Based on a survey on socio- demographic characteristics among adults in Damascus and Rif Dimashq we study demographic characteristics, human capital, health, values and attitudes of the surveyed population to get insights on parts of the population residing in this area. Moreover, we compare those remaining in and around Damascus with externally displaced Syrians arriving in Austria in 2015 and living in and around the Austrian capital Vienna. The survey, called DamS (Damascus Survey) focused on persons living in Damascus and the governorate Rif Dimashq. The fieldwork was carried out in fall 2017 and at the beginning of 2018, aiming to uncover the socio-demographic characteristics and values of persons living in the Syrian capital and around to investigate who is currently residing in these specific areas in Syria. Building on DiPAS, a survey carried out in fall 2015 among forced migrants in and around Vienna, we are able to compare Syrians who left the country for Europe with those in the metropolitan area in the home country. Education and human capital are and will be key for Syria’s future and the (economic) reconstruction of the country in post-war years. 2 2. Syrian population and internal displacement In 2004, 17,9 million persons in total were living in Syria (Statistical Office of the Republic of Syria, 2004). Due to the violent conflicts starting in 2011, many lost their lives, left the country or moved within the country. According to the internal displacement monitoring center (IDMC), Syria ranks first among countries worldwide in terms of its internally displaced populations. In 2017, 6,278,000 people were officially counted as displaced, which amounts to roughly 30% of Syria’s overall population in pre-war times. Currently, the country is faced with 692,000 newly displaced per year (IDMC, 2017). The majority of internally displaced persons have found refuge in Northern Syria, particularly in the governorate of Idlib. In October 2017, the global Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Cluster, coordinated by UNHCR, accounted for an internally displaced population of 3,199,526 in Northern Syria, who was accommodated in 351 camps. In 2016, the rate of internally displaced persons hosted in camps increased by 50%. Additional displacements from other parts of Syria, including Homs and Damascus are expected for the course of 2018 and will add an additional strain on existing infrastructure (CCCM, 2017). As of January 2018, it is estimated that 2.65 million people live in Idlib and its surroundings, nearly half of whom are IDPs. These also include new displacements from Rif Dimashq in the wake of so-called evacuation agreements (OCHA, 2018). For these and related reasons, the city and vicinity of Damascus do not host extensive IDP camps. Geographically, Damascus is a city with dense inner core, surrounded by a motor way. Space for large refugee accommodations is hence limited and resources are scarce. The number of IDPs in Damascus is hence difficult to ascertain, given the lack of official statistics, as is overall population size. From 2011 to 2015 alone, a drop from 1.8 million inhabits to 1.5 million was reported (BBC, 2016a). Most IDPs in Damascus city live with families and friends, rather than in one of the few official shelters, which have reportedly been subjected to forced removal. It is predominantly former schools and community centers that function as IDP living quarters. Services provided there are limited, including basic health and food provision by humanitarian organizations, which tend to be government-controlled (BBC, 2016b). Smaller camps in the governorate of Damascus have been established in the city of Aadra and Al Horjelah, approximately thirty minutes from the city of Damascus. For the latter, news reports suggest that some 6,000 families found shelter (Hamjo, 2016). While substantiated 3 information remains difficult to obtain, the situation in the governorate of Damascus appears to be a relatively stable one. In 2017, two neighborhoods even reported refugee returns (REACH, 2018). So far, however, there are no comprehensive statistics on actual or expected returnees, as the Syrian crisis continues. 3. Empirical evidence on educational attainment among Syrians Up until the outbreak of conflict in 2011, Syrian young people were among the most educated in the Middle East region, with Syria having achieved near universal primary education enrolment and a secondary school completion rate of 74% (Bouchane, 2016). Evidence from the Syrian Census carried out in 2004 reveals: Among Syrians aged 15 years and more, one in two were either illiterate or literate, whereas 18% had primary certificate, 14% an intermediate certificate, 9% a secondary certificate and about 8% obtained a vocational certificate or were university graduates (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2004). But large regional differences existed in pre-conflict times. The educational profile of persons living in Damascus was high compared to the overall Syrian population (Figure 1). The share of low educated was substantially lower in Damascus (35%), and on the upper end of the distribution substantially more (13%) held a vocational certificate or a university diploma. Individuals residing in Damascus countryside (Rif Damashq) were on average better educated than the general Syrian population, as the share of low educated was slightly above 40%. Nevertheless, the proportion of those with secondary of higher education was at Syrian average (17%), whereas medium level of education (primary or intermediate certificate) was more common in Rif Damashq than in Syria overall (40% versus 32%). Generally, nine years of basic education are mandatory in the country. In 2015, the literacy rate (defined as those aged 15 and over who can read and write) among Syrians was still relatively high in comparison with the region as a whole at 86.4 percent (males: 92 percent; females: 81 percent) (CIA, 2016). Due to the long years of violent conflicts, a large number of Syrian children - both inside and outside the country - is out of school (UNICEF, 2016; UNICEF MENA, 2015), with long-term effects of the educational profile of the Syrian population. 4 Figure 1: Regional educational differences in Syria, 2004 Quneitra Swaida Daraa Al Rakha Tartous Deer Al Zour Al Hasakah Idlib Lattakia Hama Homs Aleppo Damascus Countryside Damascus Syria 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
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