1St-Baghdad-International-Water-Conference-Modern-Technologies-CA Lebanon-WO-Videos

th 13th -14 March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE

Modern Methods of Remote Data collection in Transboundary Rivers Yarmouk River study case

Dr. Chadi Abdallah CNRS-L Lebanon Introduction WATER is a precious natural resource and at the same time complex to manage. 

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE 24Font width Times New Roman Font type

Take in consider the transparency of the color

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE 13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE • Difficulty to acquire in-situ data • Sensitivity in data exchange • Contradiction and gaps in data o Area of the watershed (varies from 6,700 Km2 to 8,378 Km2) o Length of the river (varies from 40 Km to 143 Km) o Flow data (variable, not always clear) • Unavailable major datasets o Long-term accurate precipitation o Flow gauging stations o Springs discharge o Wells extraction o Dams actual retention o Detailed LUC

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Digital Globe-ESRI- GeoEye (0.5m/2011& CORONA (2m/1966) SPOT (10m/2009) 2019) LUC 1966 CWR estimation LUC 2011& 2020

Landsat 5 to 8 (30m/1982- 2020) MODIS-MOD16 CHIRPS (5Km/1980-2015) 150 images (1Km/2000-2020) 493 images Dams actual retention 255 images Precipitation CWR estimation Evapotranspiration LST, NDVI, ET, SMI

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Jabal Al Qaly'a Yarmouk River Ash Shaykh .! Raqqad Area: 7,386 Km2 • Quneitra .! Jbab .! Length of Main Tributary from • Sanameyn Allan .! Highest to Lowest: 144Km Jasem Main tributaries: Raqqad, • .! Hareer/ Allan, Hareer/Arram, Thahab, Nawa .! Izra' Arram Zeidi, Shallala .! Taseel Shaykh Maskyn Jamlah .! .! .! 3 countries: Syria (80%), • 1,114 m Hayt Da'el .! Tafas .! Harak Qanawat Jordan (19.7%), OSoI (0.3%) Zayzoun .! .! .! Mukhaiba .! Tha'lah .! .! Sweida Gharyeh Sharqyeh .! Borders: • Mzeirib Uthman .! .! Al Shajarah .! Um Walad .! Dera'a .! Thahab .! Syria/Jordan: 31.2 Km - Um El Mayadyn Jabal -247 m Ramtha .! .! Al Mjemir al Arab\Druz Jordan/Golan: 19.4 Km - Jaber Al Sarhan Busra.! .! .! Al BouwaydaZeidiSama Al Sarhan Jordan/OSoI: 11.1 Km - .! .! Shallala Al Ghadeer Al Abyad Sakhra .! .! Al Mafraq 13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD.! INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN, and the GIS User Community

• The historical flow was 450-480 MCM/yr (before 1960s) • The flow declined to 200-260 MCM/yr in recent years • The decrease of flow could be attributed to intensification of irrigated agriculture, and the increase of drought • ~5,000 wells, pumping ~190 MCM/yr in both Syria and Jordan • 3 main aquifer systems: o Basalt aquifer, mainly exploited in Syria o Limestones aquifers, mainly exploited in Jordan o Deeper aquifer, not exploited in the Yarmouk area

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE From the Remote Sensing analysis

• Climatic properties (coupled with ground gauging data when available) o Rainfall: ~ 273 mm/yr between 1981-2008 (CHIRPS) o Maximum Land Temperature: increase from ~28°C in 1980s to ~33 °C in 2010s (Landsat) o Drought: different periods were identified

• Dams: 40 dams (~328 MCM) inside the watershed o Never totally filled, estimation of volume (Landsat): maximum of 196 MCM (67%) in 2013 o After the crisis, decrease of volume in Syrian dams, and increase in Al Wehdeh

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE From the Remote Sensing analysis

• LUC: for 1966 and 2011 o Increase in urban areas (6%) and permanent cultivations (trees) o Decrease in field crops (10%) and bare lands (9.5%)

• Vegetation water requirements (1980s and 2010s): o Crops: increase in demand from ~190 MCM/yr in 1980s to ~281 MCM/yr in 2010s o Trees: ~72 MCM/yr

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Tributaries Raqqad • 7 main tributaries: o Syria: Raqqad, Allan, Hareer/Arram, Thahab Allan Hareer/ o Jordan: Shallala Arram o Common: Zeidi, Mainstream

• The tributaries (except Raqqad) meet at the Thahab Maqarin site, before the Mainstream Wehdeh dam Shallala Zeidi

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE

Nab' AssakherQuneitra As_Sanayman

Nawa Izra' Shahba

Sweida Baqura Dar'a

Legend IrbidIrbed Ramtha Rainfall gauge stations Country Salkhad " Jordan Syria Ras Muneif Watershed Mafraq

0 2.75 th5.5 th 11 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE 13 -14 MarchKm 2021

Sources: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, Intermap, increment P Corp., GEBCO, USGS, FAO, NPS, NRCAN, GeoBase, IGN, Kadaster NL, Ordnance Survey, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), swisstopo, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community Station Code Station Name Source Country Time coverage Frequency Irbid Irbid Daily_temp-rain_JVA Jordan 1969-2006 Daily Mafraq Mafraq Daily_temp-rain_JVA Jordan 1969-2006 Daily Ramtha Ramtha Daily_temp-rain_JVA Jordan 1976-2005 Daily

XXXXXX Baqura Jordan_rain-temp Jordan 1967-1990 Monthly

XXXXXXX Irbed Jordan_rain-temp Jordan 1967-1990 Monthly

SYNP0011 Ras Muneif Jordan_rain-temp Jordan 1961-1990 Monthly As_Sanayman As_Sanayman MOAAR website Syria 1982-2014 Yearly Hadar Hadar MOAAR website Syria 2005-2014 Yearly Izra' Izra' MOAAR website Syria 1982-2014 Yearly Nab' Assakher Nab' Assakher MOAAR website Syria 2005-2014 Yearly Nawa Nawa MOAAR website Syria 1982-2014 Yearly Salkhad Salkhad MOAAR website Syria 1982-2014 Yearly Shahba Shahba MOAAR website Syria 1982-2014 Yearly Dar'a Syria rain Syria 1928-2011 Monthly Quneitra Quneitra Syria rain Syria 1985-2008 Monthly Sweida Sweida Syria rain Syria 1928-2014 Monthly Rainfall amount within Yarmouk based on Chirps satellite data 5 km resolution

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Rainfall GM station VS Chirps satellite data

Correlation for the best 5 stations 400

350

300

250

CHIRPS -

200

81.3x + 0.66y = 150

0.7041 =² R AnnualRainfall

100

0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Annual Rainfall - Ground Gauge

Stations N RMSE MAE ME BIAS Fitting Equation R2

Top 5 107 40.48902 33.91979 12.19003 6.354543 y = 0.66x + 81.3 0.7041

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Evapotranspiration was retrieved from MODIS 16 @ 1 km 2001 - 2015

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Average Rainfall (1981 – 2008) • Ground data from 13 stations (Good and Moderate fit) • Average 273 mm/yr Kufr Saum (2016.51 MCM/yr) Max= 429 mm/yr • After BIAS correction of CHIRPS data (BIAS = 11%, RMSE error = 57mm)

Mafraq Airport Min= 151 mm/yr 13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Surface Water – Literature

• Flows are subject to significant inter- and intra-annual variability • Early studies agreed on average flow in Adassiyeh between 450 – 480 MCM/yr (Ionides 1939, Burdon 1954, Baker et Harza 1955, Energoprojekt 1964) • Recent studies estimate the surface water average at 90 – 180 MCM/yr in Syria alone (Agha and Deeb 2005, Kout 2008, Tawil (PC) 2017); and between 200 – 260 MCM/yr when including both Syria and Jordan (Hadadin 2015, AlHusban 2016) • Reduction of flows caused by the intensification of agriculture irrigated from surface or groundwater, and the increase of drought attributed to climate change

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Surface Water – Gauges Jisr Al Hamidiye

Jisr Zbayde Jisr Al Raqqad • Stations acquired from JVA, HSI

Jisr al Faqee' and literature review in Syria Jisr Al Rafeed Al Allan tTarik Jisr Al Rafeed Jisr Sayda • Syria: approximations for sub- Jisr Taseel

Kafer Alma Nijran watershed Jisr Sahem Ash Sajara Al Yarmouk B. Raqqad Jalleen • Jordan: 4 stations with baseflow Hayt Al Hareer Al Qusayr and flood flow data Gate 121 Maqareen Al Yadouda Naharayim Madkhal Sadd Al Ghariyah • OSoI: 2 stations with only total Adassiyeh Shummar Shallala Dera'a flow Umm Al Mayatheen Ghosem

Al Dayr

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE

Endpoint of the Yarmouk River, location of the Adassiyeh weir. Input from all sub-watersheds

700 600 229 MCM/yr (1979-88) 500 400 300 40 MCM/yr 200 Flow (MCM/yr) Flow (2008-15) 100

2011

1980 1993 1998 2003 1979 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015

13th -14th March 2021 Baseflow Flood Flow Discharge1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Jordan – Maqarin Near the site of the Wehdeh Dam. Input from all sub-watersheds except Al Raqqad 231 MCM/yr 400 (1979-88) 60 MCM/yr (1999-07) 300

200

100 Flow(MCM/yr)

1983 1994 2005 1979 1980 1981 1982 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 Year

13th -14thBaseflowMarch 2021 (MCM/yr) Flood flow (MCM/yr) 1STDischarge BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL (MCM/yr) WATER CONFERENCE Climate – Droughts

• Several drought periods mentioned in literature • SPI used to study both agricultural (3 months) and meteorological (12 months) droughts • 21 stations in Syria from 1958 to 2010 • Drought periods in 1960/61, 1999/01 and 2007/08 (conforming with recorded in literature) • More years classified as dry, especially on short term

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Geological map

Compilation from different studies Hydrogeology

System Formation Code Age Lithology Type

Neogene - Basalt basalt Aquifer Quaternary Upper Aquifer Um Rijam/Wadi B4/B5 – 2 3 Eocene limestone, marl Aquifer Shallala Pg2 /Pg2

B3 – marl, chalky Muwaqqar 1 Paleocene Aquitard Pg1-Pg2 limestone

Wadi As Sir/Amman A7/B2 – Cr cn chalky, dolomitic 2 Coniacian - Aquifer - Al Hissa cp/Cr2m-d Maastrichtian Middle Aquifer limestone A1/A6 – Cenomanian Marl, Chalky Naur / Shueib Alternation Cr2cm-t – Coniacian Limestone

K – Lower Deep Aquifer13th -14th March 2021 Kurnub 1ST BAGHDADSandstone INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCEAquifer Cr1-Cr2 t Cretaceous Monitoring wells

AD1148AD1277 - E'LAYYAN - MAQARIN MIQBEL 2 - 98 MAHM. m - A7\/BSOMAYA2 1 - 618 m - A7/B2 49050 -4m -23m 46 480 42 470

38 Water Level (m) Level Water

Water level (m) level Water 46034

450

1987 1996 1998 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 1978 1980 1984 1986 1990 1992 1996 1998 2002 2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 1974 Year Year DRY SEASONSEASON WETWET SEASONSEASON YEARLYYEARLY !.

!. !. !. !. !. !. .! !. !. .!!. .!!. !. !. !. Groundwater .! .! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !.!. !. !. !. .!!. !.!.!. !. !. !. !. !. .! .! .! !. !. !.!. !. !. !. !. !. .! !.!. !. !.!. !. !. !. .! .! abstraction !. !..!!. !. !. .! !..! !. !. !. !. !.!. !. !.!. !. !. .! !. !.!. !.!. !. !. !. !. .!!. !. !. !. !.!. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !.!. !. .! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. ! !. !. .! . !.! !. !. !. !. .! !. !. .!!. !. !. !. .! !. !. .! !. !. !. !. !. !. .! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !.!. !. !. !. !. ! .! !. • More than 5,000 wells in the .! .! !. . !. !. .! !. .! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! !. !. !. !..! !. !. !. !. .!.!!. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! !. !. !. !. .! .! !. .! !. ! .! !. basin, including 4,000 in Syria !. !. !. . .! !. !. !. .! !.!. !. !. .! .! !. .! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! .! .! .! !. !. !..! !. !. !. !. !.!. !. .! !. !. .! !. .! .! .! !. !.!. !. ! .! .!!. ! !. !. !. .!. !. !.!. . !. !. !. .! !. !. .! !. !. !. !. !. .!!. !. !. !. !. (Al Husein, 2007) .! !. !. !. !..! !. !. .! !. !.!. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! !.!. !. !. !.!!. !. !. .! !. .!.! !. ! !. !. !. !. !.!. !. !. !.!. !.!. . !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !..! !. !. !. !.!. !. !. !. !. !. !. ! !. !.!. !.! !. .! !. !. !. !. !. . !. !. !. !. !. !. !.!.! !. !. .! !. !. !. . !. .! !. !.!. .! !. • Syria: ~150 MCM/yr (>1,000 .! ! .! !. !. . !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !.!.!. ! !. .! .! !. !. !. . .! !. !..! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! !. !. !.!. !. !..! .!!. !. !. .! .! !. !. .! !. !. .! .!!. !. !. !. !. wells) from the Basalt Aquifer !. .! .! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! !. .! !. !. !. !. !. .! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !.!. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! !. !. !. !. !.!. .! .! .! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! .! !. !. !. .! !. !. !. ! !. !. .! .!.! !. .! !. .!. !. !. .! !. !. !. !. !. !. .!!. !. !. !. !. !. !..! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. ! .! .!.!!. !. !. !. !.!. !. !.!. !. .! !. . !. .! !. !. !. !.!. !. • Jordan: ~40 MCM/yr (>200 !. .! !. !. !. !. !. !. .! !.! !. !.!. !. .! ! . !. !. !. !. .! !. .!.! . .! !. .! !. ! !. .! !. !. .! .! . !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! !. !. .! !. !.!. .! !. !. !.!. !. !..! !. !. .! !. !. !..! .! !. !. !.!. wells) from the A7/B2 Aquifer !. !. .! .! !. !. .!!. !. !. !. .! !.!. .! .! !. !. !. .! !. .! !. .!!. !. ! !. .! ! !. !. .! . !. .! .!. !. !. !. !. !. !. .! .! .! !.!. !. !. !. .! !. !. ! !. .! !. !. . !. .! .! !. !. .! !. !. .! !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !.!. .! .! .! !. !. !. .! .! !. !. .! !. !. • More is actually pumped in both .!.! !. !. !. .! .! !. !. !. !. !. .! !. ! .! !. !. !. !. !. ! . !. !. !. !. !. !. !. !. . .! !. ! !. !. !. .! .! .!! . .! .! !. !..! !.!. !. !. !. !.! . .! !. .!!. !. !. !. !. .! . .!!. !. !.!. .! .! !. !. ! !. !.!. !. !.!. !. !. . .! !. !. !. !. .! !. countries !. !. .! .! .! !. !. ! .! !. ! !...! .!. !. ! !. .! . .!.! ! . .! !. !. !. !. !. !.! .! .! !. !. .! . !. ! !. . !. . !. !. !. .! !. .! .! .!!. !. .! !. !. .! !. .! !. !. .! .! !. ! !. .! !. .!.! . !. !. .!!.!. .!.! !. !. !. .! ! ! !. .! !. .! !.! !. .!.!. .!.! !. .! !. .!.!!. .! !. !. ! !. !. .! .!.!.! .! !. . !. !. !. .! .!.!!.! !. !. !. !. !. ! !. !. !. !. .!!.!..!!.! . !. !. !. !..! .! !.!.!. .!. .! !. !. !. !. !. .! !. !. !. .! !. .! !. .!!.!.!.! !. !.!..!.!.! !. !. .! !. .!. .!.!!.!..!!. !. .! !. .! !.!.!.!.!. .! !. .!.! .! !.!. .!!. .!!. !. .! .! .! .!!.!.!. .! ! .! !. !.!. !. .!. .! !. !. !. !. .! !. .!.! ! !..! .! .! .! !..! .!.! .! .! .! .!.! .! !.!.! .! .! !.!. .! ! .! !. !. .!.!.!. !. .!.!.!! !. .! !. !. .!.. .! !.

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE

Increase in number of wells 4,400 wells 6,116 wells Decrease in irrigated area 20,000 ha 14,338 ha 8 25

6 Thousands 15 Thousands 4 10

2 Number of wells of Number

5 (ha) irrgiated Area

- -

Year

13th -14th March 2021 Number of wells Area irrigated from1ST wells BAGHDAD (ha) INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE History of dams construction • Data from JVA (Jordan), MWI (Syria), Mey Golan (OSoI), several reports/articles, personal communications, and satellite imagery • The construction of dams in Syria started as early as the 1960s, with the Rasas dam (1964) • Most of the dams in Syria were constructed in the 1980s Corona, 1966 • In Jordan, all 3 small dams were built in 1960s • In Golan, dam building started in late 1960s, 4 dams were built, and others projected (HSI data)

40 200

100

Number Capacity (MCM) Capacity 0 0 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Years Years 13th -Cumulative14th March 2021 number Number Cumulative Capacity1ST BAGHDAD (MCM) INTERNATIONAL WATERCapacity CONFERENCE (MCM) Dam Year Volume Country Dam Year Volume Country Dam Year Volume Country

Rasas 1964 0.03 Syria Hebran 1980 1.95 Syria Al Allan 1990 5.25 Syria Al Ghariyah al Al Ain 1965 1.35 Syria 1982 2.45 Syria Al Raqad 1991 9.2 Syria Sharqiyah Khazma 1965 0.25 Syria Al Hujah 1982 0.85 Syria Qanawat 1991 6.1 Syria 1990 Ghadir al Abyad 1966 0.7 Jordan Al Sheikh Maskin 1982 15 Syria Kudnah 1994 30 Syria s Sama al Sarhan 1966 1.7 Jordan Gharbi Tafs 1982 2.1 Syria Meitsar 1994 0.6 Golan 1960 Al Bouwayda 1967 0.7 Jordan Ruwayhaniyah 1982 1.03 Syria Saham al Golan 1995 20 Syria s

Al Muta'iyah 1967 1 Syria 1980 Taseel 1982 6.6 Syria Uthman 1998 0.65 Syria s Al Asleha 1968 0.04 Syria Adwan 1986 5.85 Syria Al Raha 2000 0.45 Syria 2000 Ghadir al Suf 1968 0.16 Syria Sahwet al Khoder 1986 8.75 Syria Al Mantara 2001 40.2 Syria s Qaysma 1968 0.013 Syria Burayqah 1987 1.1 Syria Al Wahdah 2007 110 Jordan

Merom Golan 1968 4.2 Golan Ghadir al Bustan 1987 10.8 Syria

Dar'a al Sharqi 1970 15 Syria Jowayleen 1988 0.5 Syria

Kheital 1970 5 Golan Abeedeen 1989 5.56 Syria

Abta' al Kabeer 1972 3.5 Syria Al Batm 1989 2.14 Syria

Abta' al Sagheer 1972 0.5 Syria 1970 s Al Butmieh 1974 0.3 Golan

Al Rom 1977 6.4 Syria

Jowayleen 1977 0.5 Syria

Sahwet al Blata 1979 1 Syria Legend Dams Purpose Dams Capacity (MCM ) Drinking ( < 4 Irrigation ( 4 - 10 Irrigation & Electricity Production ( 10 - 20 Livestock Watering ( 20 - 40 Not Specified ( 40 - 110 Total:Syria : Al Mantara Organization 0 5 10 20 Bental/Merom Golan Km Ruwayhaniyah 50 dams42 dams

BurayqahKudnah Al Hujah ~ 370247 MCM.5 MCM

Ghadir al Bustan Al Butmieh Inside YarmoukJordan: Taseel Al Zolf Al Raqad Al Sheikh Maskin Al Allan Shahba 40 dams4 dams Saham al Golan Abta' al Kabeer Kheital Abeedeen Adwan Abta' al Sagheer Qanawat ~ 328113 MCM.1 MCM Al Wahdah Gharbi Tafs Meitsar Al Tiba Al Mushanaf al Janoubee Al Rom Al Wahdah Jowayleen Al Asleha Uthman Ghadir al Suf Al Ghariyah al Sharqiyah Rasas Occupied Sahwet al BlataAl Raha Dar'a al Sharqi Golan: Hebran Jabal el Arab Sahwet al Khoder Qaysma Al Ain 4 dams

Al Muta'iyah Salkhad Al Bouwayda Sama al Sarhan 10.1 MCM Sama al Sarhan Khazma Al Bouwayda Al Batm Ghadir al Abyad Ghadir al Abyad

th th Sources: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, Intermap, increment P Corp., GEBCO, USGS, FAO, NPS,1 NRCAN,ST BAGHDAD GeoBase, INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE 13 -14 March 2021 IGN, Kadaster NL, Ordnance Survey, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), swisstopo, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community Dams’ water retention • Dams rarely totally filled (retention in Dera’a dams: 20-40%) • Jordanian dams suffer from sedimentation

3-3-2014 15-5-2014 4-4-2014

Al Bouwayda Al Shaykh Maskeen Al Ain

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Methodology

Data acquisition (Landsat 5 and 7)

Extraction of NIR band from Landsat data

Delimitation of dams’ area using GIS tools

Estimation of volume (MCM) : V = A x D / 3

Validation: maximum volume compared to theoretical volume => 80% 13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Results2012 – SyriaDecrease after 140 MCM effects of war started 150 100 2008 120 53 MCM 80 90 60

60 40 Percentage Percentage

Volume (MCM) Volume 30 20 from theoretical (%) theoretical from 0 0

Year

13th -14th MarchVolume 2021 retained (MCM) Percentage from1ST theoreticalBAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL (%) WATER CONFERENCE Results – Jordan

3 100 80 2 60

40 1 Volume (MCM) Volume 20

0 0 Percentage from theoretical (%) theoretical from Percentage

Year Volume retained (MCM) Percentage from theoretical (%) Volume used from dams 40 30 Most of the dams are • 20 purposed for irrigation 10

Estimation of the amount • Volume (MCM) Volume of water used for 0 irrigation 1985 1986 1987 2009 2014 2015 2016 DI = (V Spring – V • Year Summer) – ET dam Used volume reached a • Volume used for irrigation Volume lost by ET peak in 2009 and decreased afterwards Land Use / Land Cover

Corona (1966) ESRI Basemap (2011)

6 strips (2m resolution) • ESRI Basemap (GeoEye, • mosaicked 50cm resolution) Scale 1:20,000 • Scale 1:20,000 • 6 main Land Use classes • 13 Land Use classes • Land Use / Land Cover

Corona (1966) ESRI Basemap (2011) 1966 2011

Urban Water Urban Surface Zones Vine Flow Bodies Zone 2% Forest 2% 1% 8% 1% 2%

Bare land Fruit Olive 24% Bare Land Trees 10% 34% 3% Forest 3%

Crop 61%

Crop 49%

CWR = (ETc * pixel size * Crop water days irrigated) / 10^9 requirement ETc = Kc * Pixel size = Days Kr * ET0 30m (Landsat) Irrigated

Crop Coefficient Reference Evapotranspiration Kr = Correction (Satellite Images) Factor ET0 = [0.48 Δ(Rn-G) + γ(900/T+273) u2(es- Kc = 1.25 * NDVI + 0.2 ea)]/[Δ+γ(1+0.34u2)]

Fractional Parameters: Cover Rn: Net radiation at Crop surface Fc = (NDVI- G: Soil heat flux density NDVImin)/(NDVI T: Mean daily air temperature max-NDVImin) U2: wind speed es: saturation vapor pressure ea: actual vapor pressure Δ: slope vapor pressure curve NDVI = (Red- γ: Psychrometric constant NIR)/(Red+NIR) Crop water requirement Winter Summer Year A (ha) CWR (MCM) A (ha) CWR (MCM) 1985 83,849 182 7,967 28 1986 75,162 160 7,329 24 1987 70,983 153 7,960 23 2009 109,159 223 32,323 102 2014 102,702 180 14,480 58 2015 119,543 255 17,764 68 2016 106,595 212 17,763 69

Separation of Irrigated and Rain-fed Areas 

Governorate Type of crop Plantation date Irrigation date Harvest date January-March- Dar'a Wheat November April May Vegetables February April-May-June July Quneitra Protected Tomato August Sep-Oct November Rain-fed Wheat and Suweida barley November _ May Rif dimashq Potato February April-May-June July Golan Vegetables February April-May-June July Irbid Vegetables February April-May-June July Methodology

Crops Governorate Characteristics Properties

Crop Calendar NDVI Transpiration (Governorate)

Validate LUC Official Data Results

Irrigated Area Maps

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Irrigated/Rain-fed Area 

The irrigated area is found to be in the • western and northwestern parts of the Yarmouk basin, mainly located in Dera’a, Quneitra, Rifdimashq and Golan

Main irrigated crops: • Irrigated wheat, protected tomato and potato

Total irrigated area of 38114 Ha for crops, • 3427.7 Ha for Olives, 1279.8 Ha for fruit trees and 964.7 Ha for vines.

13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE  Irrigated/Rain-fed Area

Total Area Governor Irrigated Area (ha) Rain-fed Fallow Area (ha)/LUC- ate Area (ha) (ha) Winter_Crops Summer_Vegetables 2011 Dar'a 18846.46 8349.95 68856.33 131656 219359 Quneitra 8613.34 11267.89 11268 3669 23551 Suweida 0 0 5140.73 46455 51596 Rif 16247 dimashq 214.15 873.63 3934.193 12098 Golan 4020.3 922.25 4161.917 566 8748 Irbid 713.41 43.58 7041.21 24287 32085 Mafraq 0 0 27.74 7130 7158 Ajlun 34.14 0 395.86 877 1307 Jarash 0 0 0 373 373

Yarmouk 32442 21457 100826 227113 360424 13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Results)

Land Use Class Land Use Group E (MCM/Yr) T (MCM/Yr) Evaporation Transpiration

Dams MWU 5.4 0 Non-Beneficial Non-Beneficial

Green House MWU 0.26 0.54 Non-Beneficial Beneficial (Agr)

Urban Zone MWU 43.22 55.25 Non-Beneficial Non-Beneficial

Bare land ULU 236.93 380.94 Non-Beneficial Non-Beneficial

Forest ULU 19.59 46.3 Non-Beneficial Beneficial (Env)

Water Bodies ULU 9.37 0 Non-Beneficial Non-Beneficial

Irrigated Crops MWU 57.22 186.15 Non-Beneficial Beneficial (Agr)

Irrigated Trees MWU 6.2 27.22 Non-Beneficial Beneficial (Agr)

Rain-fed Crops MLU 89.66 256.39 Non-Beneficial Beneficial (Agr)

Rain-fed Trees MLU 81.6 177.85 Non-Beneficial Beneficial (Agr) WEAP Scenarios: Reference scenario: Inherits a “Business as Usual” trend from pre-war conditions . Agricultural intensification: Explores the possible expansion of agriculture in the basin . Enhancement of Irrigation systems: Explores the possibility of upgrading the irrigation . systems and their efficiency. Climate change scenarios: . RCP 4.5: 1.5 °C temperature increase by 2100 and 7% decrease in precipitation  RCP 8.5: 3.2 °C temperature increase by 2100 and 13% decrease in precipitation  UN medium variant population projection: Assumes a population growth based on the UN . projection for each country. The projection is based on each countries historical trends and present conditions.

48 13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE Conclusion:  Under the current water allocation regime and BAU trend, no sustainability can be achieved in near and far future with water shortage reaching 291 MCM by 2050  Water management is an urgent necessity to reduce the gap between supply and demand  Growth of agriculture led to increased irrigation shortage that reached 195 MCM by 2050  Climate change scenarios resulted in huge decrease in surface water what may render many dams useless  Jordan is the country that will be most affected by climate change  Enhancing irrigation systems improved coverage and supply of all sectors  The medium variant population projection resulted in reduced domestic demand shortage  Combining the UN medium variant projection with the improved irrigation systems showed the lowest water shortage between all scenarios  Water shortage is certain to increase in the future but can mitigated by lessening demands

49 13th -14th March 2021 1ST BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL WATER CONFERENCE