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Technology Roadmap 2050 2045 2035 2040 Technology Roadmap Solar photovoltaic energy DISCLAIMER The Agency aims to: This report is the result of a collaborative effort • Secure member countries’ access to reliable between the International Energy Agency (IEA), and ample supplies of all forms of energy; its member countries and various consultants in particular, through maintaining effective and experts worldwide. Users of this report shall emergency response capabilities in case of oil make their own independent business decisions supply disruptions. at their own risk and, in particular, without undue reliance on this report. Nothing in this report • Promote sustainable energy policies that shall constitute professional advice, and no spur economic growth and environmental representation or warranty, express or implied, is protection in a global context – particularly in made in respect of the completeness or accuracy terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of the contents of this report. The IEA accepts that contribute to climate change. no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect damages resulting from any use of this report or its • Improve transparency of international markets contents. A wide range of experts reviewed drafts, through collection and analysis of energy data. however, the views expressed do not necessarily • Support global collaboration on energy represent the views or policy of the IEA or its technology to secure future energy supplies individual member countries. and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low- THE IntERNATIONAL EnERGY AGENCY carbon technologies. The International Energy Agency (IEA), • Find solutions to global energy challenges an autonomous agency, was established in through engagement and dialogue with non- November 1974. Its mandate is two-fold: member countries, industry, international to promote energy security amongst its member organisations and other stakeholders. countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply and to advise member IEA member countries are: Australia, Austria, countries on sound energy policy. Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme Italy, Japan, Korea (Republic of), Luxembourg, of energy co-operation among 28 advanced the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, economies, each of which is obliged to hold oil Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. Foreword Current trends in energy supply and use Roadmaps also include special focus on technology are patently unsustainable – economically, development and diffusion to emerging environmentally and socially. Without decisive economies.International collaboration will be action, energy-related emissions of CO2 will more critical to achieve these goals. than double by 2050 and increased oil demand will heighten concerns over the security of supplies. While its use is small today, solar photovoltaic We can and must change our current path, but (PV) power has a particularly promising future. this will take an energy revolution and low-carbon Global PV capacity has been increasing at an energy technologies will have a crucial role to average annual growth rate of more than 40% play. Energy efficiency, many types of renewable since 2000 and it has significant potential for energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear long-term growth over the next decades. This power and new transport technologies will all roadmap envisions that by 2050, PV will provide require widespread deployment if we are to reach 11% of global electricity production (4 500 TWh our greenhouse gas emission goals. Every major per year), corresponding to 3 000 gigawatts country and sector of the economy must be of cumulative installed PV capacity. In addition involved. The task is also urgent if we are to make to contributing to significant greenhouse gas sure that investment decisions taken now do not emission reductions, this level of PV will deliver saddle us with sub-optimal technologies in the substantial benefits in terms of the security of long term. energy supply and socio-economic development. Achieving this target will require a strong and There is a growing awareness of the urgent need balanced policy effort in the next decade to allow to turn political statements and analytical work for optimal technology progress, cost reduction into concrete action. To spark this movement, and ramp-up of industrial manufacturing. This at the request of the G8, the IEA is developing a roadmap also identifies technology goals and series of roadmaps for some of the most important milestones that must be undertaken by different technologies. These roadmaps provide solid stakeholders to enable the most cost-efficient analytical footing that enables the international expansion of PV. As the recommendations of the community to move forward on specific roadmaps are implemented, and as technology technologies. Each roadmap develops a growth and policy frameworks evolve, the potential for path for a particular technology from today to different technologies may increase. In response, 2050, and identifies technology, financing, policy the IEA will continue to update its analysis of future and public engagement milestones that need to be potentials, and welcomes stakeholder input as the achieved to realise the technology’s full potential. roadmaps are taken forward. Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director, IEA Foreword 1 Acknowledgements This publication was prepared by the IEA’s government and non-government experts and the Renewable Energy Division. It was developed members of the PVPS Implementing Agreement, under the lead of Paolo Frankl, Head of the IEA who attended the meetings, reviewed and Renewable Energy Division (RED) and Stefan commented on the drafts, and provided overall Nowak, Chair of the IEA Implementing Agreement guidance and support for the roadmap. The Photovoltaic Power Systems (PVPS) Executive authors wish to thank all of those who participated Committee. Other co-authors were Marcel in the meetings and commented on the drafts. Gutschner, Stephan Gnos (NET Nowak Energie & The resulting roadmap is the IEA’s interpretation Technologie Ltd) and Tobias Rinke (IEA/RED). Many of the workshops, with additional information other IEA colleagues have provided important incorporated to provide a more complete picture, contributions, in particular Tom Kerr, Steven Lee, and does not necessarily fully represent the David Elzinga, Uwe Remme, Emi Mizuno, Cedric views of the workshop participants. A full list of Philibert, Hugo Chandler and Zuzana Dobrotkova. workshop participants and reviewers is included in Tom Kerr also significantly contributed to the final Appendix III. editing of the document. Energetics, Inc. provided editorial comments. For more information on this document, contact: This work was guided by the IEA Committee on Paolo Frankl, IEA Secretariat Energy Research and Technology. Its members Tel. +33 1 4057 6591 provided important review and comments that Email: [email protected] helped to improve the document. This roadmap would not be effective without all of the comments and support received from the industry, 2 Technology Roadmaps Solar photovoltaic energy Key findings • Solar PV power is a commercially available and • As PV matures into a mainstream technology, reliable technology with a significant potential grid integration and management and energy for long-term growth in nearly all world storage become key issues. The PV industry, regions. This roadmap estimates that by 2050, grid operators and utilities will need to develop PV will provide around 11% of global electricity new technologies and strategies to integrate production and avoid 2.3 gigatonnes (Gt) of large amounts of PV into flexible, efficient and CO2 emissions per year. smart grids. • Achieving this roadmap’s vision will require • Governments and industry must increase R&D an effective, long-term and balanced policy efforts to reduce costs and ensure PV readiness effort in the next decade to allow for optimal for rapid deployment, while also supporting technology progress, cost reduction and longer-term technology innovations. ramp-up of industrial manufacturing for mass deployment. Governments will need • There is a need to expand international to provide long-term targets and supporting collaboration in PV research, development, policies to build confidence for investments in capacity building and financing to accelerate manufacturing capacity and deployment of PV learning and avoid duplicating efforts. systems. • Emerging major economies are already • PV will achieve grid parity – i.e. competitiveness investing substantially in PV research, with electricity grid retail prices – by 2020 development and deployment; however, more in many regions. As grid parity is achieved, needs to be done to foster rural electrification the policy framework should evolve towards and capacity building. Multilateral and bilateral fostering self-sustained markets, with the aid organisations should expand their efforts to progressive phase-out of economic incentives, express the value of PV energy in low-carbon but maintaining grid access guarantees and economic development. sustained R&D support. Key actions in
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