Cover photos Lithia Park in autumn by Keith Henty, all rights reserved Mule Creek Canyon by Zach Collier under CC BY 2.0 Mount Ashland by Alex Lockhart Contents Key Findings 1 Introduction 3 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 3 Exposure 4 Sensitivity 5 Adaptive Capacity 5 Results 6 Climate Change Trends for Ashland and the Rogue Valley 6 Climate Change Vulnerabilities 7 Natural Systems 11 Equity and Disadvantaged Populations 16 Health and Emergency Response 20 Business and Agriculture 24 Infrastructure and Planning 28 Conclusions 33 References 34 Workshop Participants 35 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley 2016 Key Findings Climate change is already impacting the The most vulnerable SOCIOECONOMIC Rogue Valley. Residents and businesses of POPULATIONS AND RESOURCES include: the area are feeling the impacts of more • Elders, who are sensitive to heat, heat waves, lower snowpack, more smoke and especially low-income without in the summer, and warmer rivers with family nearby water quality problems from algae and • Outdoor workers and seasonal bacteria. We assessed the different workers, most of whom have low populations and resources of the Rogue incomes Valley to determine where our communities • Seasonal and service industry are most vulnerable to climate impacts. Our workers (forest, ski area, restaurant, process included a review of climate model theater, hotel, etc.) projections specific to our area, combined • Homeless populations, people with an expert elicitation process to lacking in transportation options determine how climate impacts might • Hydropower supply affect the people and resources throughout • Low income Latino/a populations the Rogue Valley, but also specific to and families/single parents with Ashland, in support of the City’s Climate young children and Energy Action Planning (CEAP) process. • People with respiratory illness, heart conditions or mental illness We found that the most vulnerable • Manufacturing, retail, and service NATURAL RESOURCES include: sector businesses • High elevation plants and wildlife • Roads and other infrastructure in • Sensitive species such as Brewer valley bottoms and along rivers spruce, Northern Spotted Owl, and • Health care providers and wolverine emergency response staff • Intermittent springs and wetlands • Tourism and recreational based • Anadromous fish, amphibian, and businesses, including the ski area migratory bird populations and river rafting • Intact ecosystems and overall • Water resources, especially water biodiversity quality issues for TID and others • Habitat connectivity needed for species to shift ranges with warming climate Photo by M. Koopman 1 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley 2016 Of note were the exacerbating factors of Many of the most severe impacts can be income level, environmental degradation, prevented by aggressively reducing and development pressure for housing and greenhouse gas emissions. The City of renewable energy as stressors to numerous Ashland is currently creating a Climate and populations and resources. For instance, Energy Action Plan to set emissions targets families with young children, Latino/a over time. The City of Talent is creating a populations, seasonal workers, and elders clean energy plan to shift away from fossil were all considered more vulnerable to fuel sources and towards local and climate change if they have low incomes. renewable energy. The City of Medford is Low income is associated with a loss of working to update its emergency response adaptive capacity, or having few resources plan with climate change model output. with which to make changes. This indicates Other Southern Oregon communities will that addressing income/wealth inequality also need to take action to reduce could increase overall community resilience emissions and protect our communities and to climate change. Similarly, reducing the resources we rely on from increasingly stressors to natural systems, such as severe impacts. pollution, water use, land use, and fragmentation of natural areas, could create more natural systems resilience, which in turn supports biological diversity, quality of life, recreation and tourism in the region. The climate change variables of greatest concern included the increase in severity and frequency of extreme heat and heat waves (89 more days per year of extreme temperatures, which could be 12°F hotter), the increased potential for large storms and flooding (large downpours 1.3” larger), loss of snowpack (-86%) and the associated loss of water storage in winter, declines in water quality due to warmer temperatures and lower flow, and overall change in climate conditions leading to disruptions in native vegetation and wildlife. Photo by ChildofMidnight / CC BY-SA 3.0 2 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley 2016 Introduction The Rogue Valley in Southern Oregon has as the mandatory level to prevent experienced changes in temperature, catastrophic warming. precipitation, and snowpack in the last few decades. As climate change accelerates, we In addition to reducing greenhouse gas can expect more days of extreme heat, emissions, however, communities need to fewer freezing nights, and more frequent respond to the changes already being felt periods of drought than there have been and plan for those that are still to come, historically. Many of the most severe regardless of our emissions reductions. impacts, however, can be minimized if Because greenhouse gases can remain in greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, the atmosphere for decades, we will creating a more positive future for residents continue to experience climate change of the Rogue Valley and around the globe. impacts for decades, and even centuries, to come. The City of Ashland is working on a Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP) to reduce While greenhouse gases are measured greenhouse gas emissions throughout the globally, climate change impacts are locally community. Another Rogue Valley specific. Each community feels climate community, Talent, is creating a plan for change in a different way, depending on shifting to clean energy. Communities historic conditions and locally-specific throughout the nation are taking action on climatic conditions and patterns of change. reducing greenhouse gas emissions in As these local impacts and changes worsen efforts to prevent warming more than 1.5 - over time, we will need to prepare and 2° C (2.7-3.6° F), which has been protect our most vulnerable resources and recognized by the international community populations from the impacts. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Determining which resources and While the workshops were held in Ashland populations are most vulnerable to ongoing in support of Ashland’s CEAP process, we and future impacts of climate change is the invited experts from throughout the Rogue first step in developing effective strategies Valley to look at regional vulnerabilities and and sound solutions. Geos Institute staff trends as well. Because climate change is an held a series of workshops on climate all-encompassing trend with both local and change vulnerability in Ashland, Oregon. regional solutions, it is vital that we work These workshops included experts in a together and develop a better variety of fields and topics. The workshops understanding of cross-jurisdictional were intended to share knowledge on the impacts as well as opportunities. science and future trends associated with climate change, as well as expected impacts to important sectors of our communities. 3 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley 2016 Climate Change Vulnerability is a function of three variables: • Exposure - what changes the resource or population is expected to be exposed to • Sensitivity - what the impacts are likely to be • Adaptive capacity - what actions or resources are available to reduce or avoid impacts Figure 1. Vulnerability is a function of Exposure and Sensitivity, which together define the impact, and Adaptive Capacity, which can act to lessen overall vulnerability. A vulnerability assessment, such as this one, determines the contributions of each of these variables to each of the target resources and populations, in order to help to prioritize and direct potential solutions. 1. EXPOSURE – Exposure is the specific impact or trend that is expected from climate change. Different resources and populations will be exposed to different components of climate change, which can be assessed using global climate models and recent trends and data. It is important to get information on exposure from Figure 2. Climate model output, such as that reputable scientific institutions and shown here, can be used to investigate the level of knowledgeable scientists with an exposure to climate impacts. This downscaled understanding of not just climate change, climate model output shows historic and projected but also the potential impacts of climate future August temperature across the Rogue Basin, using three different climate models (CSIRO, change to our natural systems that HADCM, and MIROC) and two future timeframes communities depend on. (2035-45 and 2075-85). All three models agree on future warming, but some show faster warming than others. 4 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley 2016 For example, Mt. Ashland Ski Area’s In addition to each of the 3 variables exposure to climate change impacts is high, associated with climate