Mesoscale – Convective Scale • Division of Scales Is Not Rigid – There Is a Continuum So That Any Phenomena Is Affected by Other Scales
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A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes
Garner, J. M., 2013: A study of synoptic-scale tornado regimes. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 8 (3), 1–25. A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes JONATHAN M. GARNER NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK (Submitted 21 November 2012; in final form 06 August 2013) ABSTRACT The significant tornado parameter (STP) has been used by severe-thunderstorm forecasters since 2003 to identify environments favoring development of strong to violent tornadoes. The STP and its individual components of mixed-layer (ML) CAPE, 0–6-km bulk wind difference (BWD), 0–1-km storm-relative helicity (SRH), and ML lifted condensation level (LCL) have been calculated here using archived surface objective analysis data, and then examined during the period 2003−2010 over the central and eastern United States. These components then were compared and contrasted in order to distinguish between environmental characteristics analyzed for three different synoptic-cyclone regimes that produced significantly tornadic supercells: cold fronts, warm fronts, and drylines. Results show that MLCAPE contributes strongly to the dryline significant-tornado environment, while it was less pronounced in cold- frontal significant-tornado regimes. The 0–6-km BWD was found to contribute equally to all three significant tornado regimes, while 0–1-km SRH more strongly contributed to the cold-frontal significant- tornado environment than for the warm-frontal and dryline regimes. –––––––––––––––––––––––– 1. Background and motivation As detailed in Hobbs et al. (1996), synoptic- scale cyclones that foster tornado development Parameter-based and pattern-recognition evolve with time as they emerge over the central forecast techniques have been essential and eastern contiguous United States (hereafter, components of anticipating tornadoes in the CONUS). -
Extratropical Cyclones and Anticyclones
© Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC. NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION Courtesy of Jeff Schmaltz, the MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC/NASA Extratropical Cyclones 10 and Anticyclones CHAPTER OUTLINE INTRODUCTION A TIME AND PLACE OF TRAGEDY A LiFE CYCLE OF GROWTH AND DEATH DAY 1: BIRTH OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ■■ Typical Extratropical Cyclone Paths DaY 2: WiTH THE FI TZ ■■ Portrait of the Cyclone as a Young Adult ■■ Cyclones and Fronts: On the Ground ■■ Cyclones and Fronts: In the Sky ■■ Back with the Fitz: A Fateful Course Correction ■■ Cyclones and Jet Streams 298 9781284027372_CH10_0298.indd 298 8/10/13 5:00 PM © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC. NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION Introduction 299 DaY 3: THE MaTURE CYCLONE ■■ Bittersweet Badge of Adulthood: The Occlusion Process ■■ Hurricane West Wind ■■ One of the Worst . ■■ “Nosedive” DaY 4 (AND BEYOND): DEATH ■■ The Cyclone ■■ The Fitzgerald ■■ The Sailors THE EXTRATROPICAL ANTICYCLONE HIGH PRESSURE, HiGH HEAT: THE DEADLY EUROPEAN HEAT WaVE OF 2003 PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER ■■ Summary ■■ Key Terms ■■ Review Questions ■■ Observation Activities AFTER COMPLETING THIS CHAPTER, YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO: • Describe the different life-cycle stages in the Norwegian model of the extratropical cyclone, identifying the stages when the cyclone possesses cold, warm, and occluded fronts and life-threatening conditions • Explain the relationship between a surface cyclone and winds at the jet-stream level and how the two interact to intensify the cyclone • Differentiate between extratropical cyclones and anticyclones in terms of their birthplaces, life cycles, relationships to air masses and jet-stream winds, threats to life and property, and their appearance on satellite images INTRODUCTION What do you see in the diagram to the right: a vase or two faces? This classic psychology experiment exploits our amazing ability to recognize visual patterns. -
Meteorology – Lecture 19
Meteorology – Lecture 19 Robert Fovell [email protected] 1 Important notes • These slides show some figures and videos prepared by Robert G. Fovell (RGF) for his “Meteorology” course, published by The Great Courses (TGC). Unless otherwise identified, they were created by RGF. • In some cases, the figures employed in the course video are different from what I present here, but these were the figures I provided to TGC at the time the course was taped. • These figures are intended to supplement the videos, in order to facilitate understanding of the concepts discussed in the course. These slide shows cannot, and are not intended to, replace the course itself and are not expected to be understandable in isolation. • Accordingly, these presentations do not represent a summary of each lecture, and neither do they contain each lecture’s full content. 2 Animations linked in the PowerPoint version of these slides may also be found here: http://people.atmos.ucla.edu/fovell/meteo/ 3 Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and drylines 4 This map shows a dryline that formed in Texas during April 2000. The dryline is indicated by unfilled half-circles in orange, pointing at the more moist air. We see little T contrast but very large TD change. Dew points drop from 68F to 29F -- huge decrease in humidity 5 Animation 6 Supercell thunderstorms 7 The secret ingredient for supercells is large amounts of vertical wind shear. CAPE is necessary but sufficient shear is essential. It is shear that makes the difference between an ordinary multicellular thunderstorm and the rotating supercell. The shear implies rotation. -
Coniglio Et Al. (2006)
P1.30 FORECASTING THE SPEED AND LONGEVITY OF SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS Michael C. Coniglio∗1 and Stephen F. Corfidi2 1NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 2NOAA/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK 1. INTRODUCTION b. MCS maintenance Forecasting the details of mesoscale convective Predicting MCS maintenance is fraught with systems (MCSs) (Zipser 1982) continues to be a difficult challenges such as understanding how deep convection problem. Recent advances in numerical weather is sustained through system/environment interactions prediction models and computing power have allowed (Weisman and Rotunno 2004, Coniglio et al. 2004b, for explicit real-time prediction of MCSs over the past Coniglio et al. 2005), how pre-existing mesoscale few years, some of which have supported field features influence the system (Fritsch and Forbes 2001, programs (Davis et al. 2004) and collaborative Trier and Davis 2005), and how the disturbances experiments between researchers and forecasters at generated by the system itself can alter the system the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) (Kain et al. 2005). structure and longevity (Parker and Johnson 2004c). While these numerical forecasts of MCSs are promising, the utility of these forecasts and how to best use the From an observational perspective, Evans and capabilities of the high-resolution models in support of Doswell (2001) suggest that the strength of the mean operations is unclear, especially from the perspective of wind (0-6 km) and its effects on cold pool development the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) (Kain et al. 2005). and MCS motion play a significant role in sustaining Therefore, refining our knowledge of the interactions of long-lived forward-propagating MCSs that produce MCSs with their environment remains central to damaging surface winds (derechos) through modifying advancing our near-term ability to forecast MCSs. -
Severe Weather Forecasting Tip Sheet: WFO Louisville
Severe Weather Forecasting Tip Sheet: WFO Louisville Vertical Wind Shear & SRH Tornadic Supercells 0-6 km bulk shear > 40 kts – supercells Unstable warm sector air mass, with well-defined warm and cold fronts (i.e., strong extratropical cyclone) 0-6 km bulk shear 20-35 kts – organized multicells Strong mid and upper-level jet observed to dive southward into upper-level shortwave trough, then 0-6 km bulk shear < 10-20 kts – disorganized multicells rapidly exit the trough and cross into the warm sector air mass. 0-8 km bulk shear > 52 kts – long-lived supercells Pronounced upper-level divergence occurs on the nose and exit region of the jet. 0-3 km bulk shear > 30-40 kts – bowing thunderstorms A low-level jet forms in response to upper-level jet, which increases northward flux of moisture. SRH Intense northwest-southwest upper-level flow/strong southerly low-level flow creates a wind profile which 0-3 km SRH > 150 m2 s-2 = updraft rotation becomes more likely 2 -2 is very conducive for supercell development. Storms often exhibit rapid development along cold front, 0-3 km SRH > 300-400 m s = rotating updrafts and supercell development likely dryline, or pre-frontal convergence axis, and then move east into warm sector. BOTH 2 -2 Most intense tornadic supercells often occur in close proximity to where upper-level jet intersects low- 0-6 km shear < 35 kts with 0-3 km SRH > 150 m s – brief rotation but not persistent level jet, although tornadic supercells can occur north and south of upper jet as well. -
Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones As Observed by the Quikscat Scatterometer
P2.11 HURRICANE FORCE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES AS OBSERVED BY THE QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER Joan Ulrich Von Ahn* STG, Inc./National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, Maryland Joseph M. Sienkiewicz National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service/ National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, Maryland Joi Copridge Clark Atlanta University, Atlanta, Georgia Jodi Min United States Coast Guard Academy, New London, Connecticut Tony Crutch National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service/ National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, Maryland 1. INTRODUCTION or significant water cloud, the algorithm is unable to The primary responsibility of The Ocean Prediction report a wind speed. The accuracy of ±2 m s-1 for the Center (OPC) of the National Centers for Environmental wind speed data can only be guaranteed in the 2-25 m Prediction (NCEP) is the issuance of marine wind s-1 range. Wind speeds above this value are not reliable warnings and forecasts for maritime users in order to (Atlas et al., 1996). Therefore, SSM/I cannot foster the protection of life and property, safety at sea, distinguish between gale and storm force winds (Atlas et and the enhancement of economic opportunity. The al, 2001). Since Storm warnings are issued for winds warnings discussed in this study refer to the short-term from 24.7 – 32.4 m s -1 and Hurricane Force warnings marine wind warnings that are placed as labels on the are issued for wind speed greater than 32.9 m s -1 the North Atlantic and North Pacific Surface Analyses SSM/I wind observations are of limited value to OPC produced by OPC four times per day. -
1 Mesoscale Meteorology: Density Currents 11 April 2017 Introduction
Mesoscale Meteorology: Density Currents 11 April 2017 Introduction A density current is defined as the intrusion of a denser fluid beneath a lighter fluid. Consider the hydrostatic equation: ∂p = −ρg ∂z Let us consider a density current of finite depth, such that isobaric surfaces are parallel to constant height surfaces above the density current. Evaluated between the ground (z = 0) and the top of the density current, the denser fluid will have a larger decrease in pressure over the depth of the density current than the lighter fluid. For fixed pressure at the top of the density current, this implies the presence of a mesohigh at the surface within the density fluid. (This is the same as a hypsometric argument, where a colder layer is associated with reduced thickness and thus higher pressure below the layer.) This establishes a horizontal pressure gradient force directed away from the mesohigh that is responsible for density current motion and displacing the lighter fluid above the denser fluid. While much of the pressure differential across a density current results from the above hydrostatic principles, there are substantial non-hydrostatic contributions along the leading edge of the density current and within the density current beneath the strongest downdraft. Further, a wake low, which forms due to compressional warming associated with unsaturated descent atop the density current, may be found rearward of the mesohigh. In such a case, the horizontal pressure gradient force in the rear of a density current may be elevated over that along the leading edge. Like sea breezes, which are a subclass of density current, density currents typically have a head on their leading edge, with depth that can be as much as twice as large as that behind its leading edge. -
Synoptic Meteorology
Lecture Notes on Synoptic Meteorology For Integrated Meteorological Training Course By Dr. Prakash Khare Scientist E India Meteorological Department Meteorological Training Institute Pashan,Pune-8 186 IMTC SYLLABUS OF SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY (FOR DIRECT RECRUITED S.A’S OF IMD) Theory (25 Periods) ❖ Scales of weather systems; Network of Observatories; Surface, upper air; special observations (satellite, radar, aircraft etc.); analysis of fields of meteorological elements on synoptic charts; Vertical time / cross sections and their analysis. ❖ Wind and pressure analysis: Isobars on level surface and contours on constant pressure surface. Isotherms, thickness field; examples of geostrophic, gradient and thermal winds: slope of pressure system, streamline and Isotachs analysis. ❖ Western disturbance and its structure and associated weather, Waves in mid-latitude westerlies. ❖ Thunderstorm and severe local storm, synoptic conditions favourable for thunderstorm, concepts of triggering mechanism, conditional instability; Norwesters, dust storm, hail storm. Squall, tornado, microburst/cloudburst, landslide. ❖ Indian summer monsoon; S.W. Monsoon onset: semi permanent systems, Active and break monsoon, Monsoon depressions: MTC; Offshore troughs/vortices. Influence of extra tropical troughs and typhoons in northwest Pacific; withdrawal of S.W. Monsoon, Northeast monsoon, ❖ Tropical Cyclone: Life cycle, vertical and horizontal structure of TC, Its movement and intensification. Weather associated with TC. Easterly wave and its structure and associated weather. ❖ Jet Streams – WMO definition of Jet stream, different jet streams around the globe, Jet streams and weather ❖ Meso-scale meteorology, sea and land breezes, mountain/valley winds, mountain wave. ❖ Short range weather forecasting (Elementary ideas only); persistence, climatology and steering methods, movement and development of synoptic scale systems; Analogue techniques- prediction of individual weather elements, visibility, surface and upper level winds, convective phenomena. -
Chapter 16 Extratropical Cyclones
CHAPTER 16 SCHULTZ ET AL. 16.1 Chapter 16 Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece a b c d DAVID M. SCHULTZ, LANCE F. BOSART, BRIAN A. COLLE, HUW C. DAVIES, e b f g CHRISTOPHER DEARDEN, DANIEL KEYSER, OLIVIA MARTIUS, PAUL J. ROEBBER, h i b W. JAMES STEENBURGH, HANS VOLKERT, AND ANDREW C. WINTERS a Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom b Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York c School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York d Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland e Centre of Excellence for Modelling the Atmosphere and Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom f Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland g Atmospheric Science Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin h Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah i Deutsches Zentrum fur€ Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut fur€ Physik der Atmosphare,€ Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ABSTRACT The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the in- ternational collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. -
Chapter 3 Mesoscale Processes and Severe Convective Weather
CHAPTER 3 JOHNSON AND MAPES Chapter 3 Mesoscale Processes and Severe Convective Weather RICHARD H. JOHNSON Department of Atmospheric Science. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado BRIAN E. MAPES CIRESICDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado REVIEW PANEL: David B. Parsons (Chair), K. Emanuel, J. M. Fritsch, M. Weisman, D.-L. Zhang 3.1. Introduction tion, mesoscale phenomena occur on horizontal scales between ten and several hundred kilometers. This Severe convective weather events-tornadoes, hail range generally encompasses motions for which both storms, high winds, flash floods-are inherently mesoscale ageostrophic advections and Coriolis effects are im phenomena. While the large-scale flow establishes envi portant (Emanuel 1986). In general, we apply such a ronmental conditions favorable for severe weather, pro definition here; however, strict application is difficult cesses on the mesoscale initiate such storms, affect their since so many mesoscale phenomena are "multiscale." evolution, and influence their environment. A rich variety For example, a -100-km-Iong gust front can be less of mesocale processes are involved in severe weather, than -1 km across. The triggering of a storm by the ranging from environmental preconditioning to storm initi collision of gust fronts can actually occur on a ation to feedback of convection on the environment. In the -lOO-m scale (the microscale). Nevertheless, we will space available, it is not possible to treat all of these treat this overall process (and others similar to it) as processes in detail. Rather, we will introduce s~veral mesoscale since gust fronts are generally regarded as general classifications of mesoscale processes relatmg to mesoscale phenomena. -
Extratropical Cyclone Conceptual Models
Extratropical Cyclone Conceptual Models Prof. David Schultz School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University of Manchester, Manchester, UK [email protected] Conceptual Models What are they good for? http://www.knmi.nl/satrep Does knowing the type of conceptual model make forecasts more accurate? Two conceptual models of extratropical cyclone structure and evolution Norwegian cyclone model occluded cyclone isobars open wave isotherms warm cold sector warm Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model Shapiro–Keyser (1990) isobars open wave bent-back seclusion front cold isotherms warm warm sector Two Conceptual Models of Lower-Level Cyclone Structure and Evolution (Schultz et al. 1998) Two Conceptual Models of Lower-Level Cyclone Structure and Evolution confluence diffluence (Schultz et al. 1998; Schultz and Zhang 2007) These conceptual models are useful for marine wind forecasting: Sting jets Cold conveyor belts Infrared satellite image of Anatol, 1625 UTC 3 December 1999 (Wikipedia) QuikSCAT 8 Dec 2005 Schultz and Sienkiewicz (2013, Weather and Forecasting) Storm surge Hurricane Sandy Schultz and Sienkiewicz (2013, Weather and Forecasting) New ideas in conceptual models: Cold fronts Occluded fronts Conventional Wisdom: The cloud band depicts the location of the surface cold front. rope cloud This cold front is not associated with a cloud band. 1200 UTC 28 December 2011 This cold front is not associated with any cloud band. •JAX 2301 UTC 15 December 1987 JAX frontal passage after 0000 UTC (Schultz and Vaughan 2011) What about occluded fronts? Conventional Wisdom Occluded fronts form when cold fronts catch up to warm fronts. Rotation and deformation around a nondivergent vortex will produce a narrowing warm sector. -
A Comprehensive Heavy Precipitation Climatology for Middle Tennessee
A Comprehensive Heavy Precipitation Climatology for Middle Tennessee Timothy W. Troutman, NOAA/NWS, Southern Region Headquarters, Fort Worth, Texas Mark A. Rose, NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Nashville, Tennessee L. Michael Trapasso, Department of Geography, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, Kentucky Stuart A. Foster, Department of Geography, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, Kentucky Date Submitted: January 25, 2001 Abstract Heavy precipitation and flash flooding in middle Tennessee represent an ongoing forecast problem for meteorologists. The need for better ways to recognize heavy precipitation potential led to the development of a heavy precipitation climatology. This research provides much needed statistical data involving monthly and yearly precipitation normals and identification of the spatial distribution of heavy precipitation across middle Tennessee. The main purpose of this research is to determine whether different types of meteorological processes generate significant variability in heavy precipitation amounts. Three inch amounts in a 24-hour period constitute a heavy precipitation event. Cooperative observer data for 43 stations across middle Tennessee were used to analyze daily precipitation data during the period 1961-1990. The heavy precipitation events that occurred were categorized as either synoptic, frontal, meso-high, or tropical. Daily Weather Maps were used to categorize these events by analysis of the surface and 500 millibar upper air patterns. There were 246 heavy precipitation events encompassing 322 days. Six null and alternate hypotheses were developed to test the spatial distribution of heavy precipitation. The heavy precipitation events were tested using an f-test and a two-sample t-test for independent samples. The t-tests helped determine the significance of the spatial distribution of heavy precipitation across middle Tennessee.