Development of a Sustainable Earth Orbit Economy

AIAA SPACE Forum 10.2514/6.2017-5366 12 - 14 Sep 2017, Orlando, FL AIAA SPACE and Astronautics Forum and Exposition

Michael P. Snyder1, Eric R. Joyce2, Simon C. Patané3, Jan K. Clawson4, and Dexter R. Becklund5

Made In Space, Moffett Field, CA, 94035

Commercial advances in medium-to-heavy launch services aim to lower the cost of launch. This reduction will open up new opportunities for expansion of the space economy, with many predictions revolving around services such as space tourism. Tourism, while important, is not a driving factor nor a significant feature of many of the developed nations’ Gross Domestic Products and historically has been a secondary feature of developed areas which were created to support other, often vastly different, industries. Space economies will be no different and will follow the terrestrial trends of the past. A foundational industry that can enable a thriving space economy is materials that take advantage of the unique environment that space presents. Made In Space is developing the production of one such material that it believes is the first of many profitable commercial space enabled materials.

Nomenclature AD = anno Domini AIAA = American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics BCE = Before Common Era GDP = Gross Domestic Product ISS = International Space Station MIS = Made In Space, Inc. ZBLAN = ZrF4, BaF2, LaF3, AlF3, NaF

I. Introduction OMMERCIAL advances in medium-to-heavy launch services aim to lower the cost of launch from $19,000 Cper kilogram1 to approximately $2,700 per kilogram2 in the near term and as low as $1,700 per kilogram in several years. This cost reduction will open up new opportunities for expasion of the space economy, with many predictions revolving around services such as space tourism. Tourism, while important, is not a driving factor nor a significant feature of many of the developed nations’ Gross Domestic Products (GDP). As an example, tourism only accounts for around 2.6% of the United State’s GDP and is only forecasted to reach 3.8% by 20253. In contrast, manufacturing and other industrial processes account for over one-third of the world’s GDP4. Even with a drastic decline in workforce the economic sector has remained stable in developed nations for the past several decades. Moreover, while not significant in terms of percentage of GDP, the largest tourism earnings in absolute terms go to more developed locations, areas that often developed due to the growth of industry and manufacturing. Therefore,

Downloaded by UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA on January 21, 2018 | http://arc.aiaa.org DOI: 10.2514/6.2017-5366 industry is often the most important initial driver in an economic system, as the infrastructure set in place to facilite it further encourages the development of the service sector. The future orbital economy is critcal to the permanent human presence. Histroically, no location developed on tourism alone and usually the trend of development started from strategic outpost followed by an economic engine driven by resources that finally evolved into a tourism destination. Space tourism is not the pathway to create a space economy that drives space settlement as indicated by numerous independent sources5,6,7 and no historical or current model supports their claim.

1 Chief Engineer, Made In Space, Inc., Moffett Field CA, and AIAA Senior Member 2 Project Manager, Made In Space, Inc., Moffett Field CA, and AIAA Member 3 Systems Engineer, Made In Space, Inc., Moffett Field CA, and AIAA Member 4 Project Manager, Made In Space, Inc., Moffett Field CA, and AIAA Member 5 Intern, Made In Space, Inc., Moffett Field CA, and AIAA Member 1 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

II. Historic Economic Development of Tourist Destinations Highly visited tourism locations can be found all over the globe. Several of the most popular locations have been chosen for analysis to draw comparisons between how those destinations came to be and the current state of space- based activities. The down selection was performed based on the travel and tourism sectors of the GDP for the international locations and tourist hotel booking information for each state in the United States of America. The top three candidates for each respective criterion were chosen. The difference in down selection criteria is a result of the fact that it is hard to understand true tourism numbers in the United States of America since entertainment sector items are purchased by tourists and locals alike, and unlike countries it is hard to determine tourists originating from within the state or from other states without examining hotel stays. The three international selections are Macau (tourism equals 44% GDP), Maldives (41.5% GDP), and the British Virgin Islands (40% GDP)8 while the domestic states examined are California, Florida, and Nevada9. The time periods examined for the international locations are after 1500 AD and after 1850 AD for the U.S. locations.

A. Macau The tourist-based economy of Macau is currently focused mainly on gambling but began as a Portuguese trading post and religious center in East Asia10. The country’s proximity to China and the Chinese strict gambling laws allowed for a transition from trade post to gambling haven in the 1800’s, however fishing and production of goods still weighed more heavily into Macau’s GDP10. As of 1985 close to 40% of their economy was based on manufacturing and the more complete tourism economy only took effect in the past 30 years10. It can be argued that the trade embargo after the Korean war increased this shifting aggressively starting in the 1950’s due to the United States’ embargo of exports from Macau that had attributed a high percentage of their trade goods, notably fire- crackers11. While tourism is clearly the mainstay of the current Macau economy, it developed over centuries after extensive social and economic development took place.

B. Maldives Maldives has largely been independent; however, many incursions were attempted. The country has experienced periodic occupation throughout its history, but in more recent times it was under a British protectorate before gaining independence in 196512. The British were also granted land for use as a strategic air facility in exchange for aid until 197613. The Maldives’ economy is currently based on tourism, in the form of resorts located on their islands, as well as fishing with the resort-based tourism, starting in 197213. Before that time the island nation relied heavily on fishing, and industry in that region focused around that enterprise, such as boat manufacturing13. The Maldives have evolved from a resource-driven economy to one that has a large tourism presence after a lengthy existence (inhabited since ~1500 BCE)12.

C. British Virgin Islands The British Virgin Islands share a history with the other Virgin Islands and therefore it is assumed that their economic history is the same for the early time period that is investigated. The islands were of strategic importance to pirates that harbored there in order to raid the riches being extracted from the New World and shipped to Europe14. Sugar, cotton, indigo, and other plantations that utilized slave labor to produce goods were exported14. While not a traditional type of native economy, this was the main source of income produced by the islands. Natural disasters and the exodus of many producers due to strict labor laws being implemented in the 1800’s led to an economic decline and the islands were sold off to different parties, mainly as strategic positions14. Tourism was not Downloaded by UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA on January 21, 2018 | http://arc.aiaa.org DOI: 10.2514/6.2017-5366 a source of considerable economic wealth until the mid-1900’s, after over 500 years of development14.

D. United States of America - California California’s economic development has happened at a much more rapid rate than the international examples presented. The state sat relatively dormant under Spanish rule. It wasn’t until Mexico claimed the territory that ranches developed to raise cattle15. Shortly afterwards settlers in the state declared independence from Mexico. Independence was granted after the Mexican War in 184815. Gold was discovered shortly after. This discovery transformed the economic and cultural identity of the state, and the population surged when hundreds of thousands of immigrants came into the state15. Over the course of the following 50 years the economy heavily focused on manufacturing, shipping, and entertainment production, which still are significant portions of the economy with most Californians employed by manufacturing or technology efforts15. Tourism did not start to be significant until after World War II and it continues to boost the large economy15.

2 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

E. United States of America - Florida Early Florida history was particularly tumultuous due to the Spanish, French, and English all vying for the region. Spain took control of the territory in 1783, but eventually ceded Florida to America in 1819 as part of the Transcontinental Treaty16. From this point until the end of the Civil War, Florida remained a wholly plantation- based state. During the reconstruction period in America, Florida’s economy boomed. In particular the citrus industry began to pick up around this time, and large swaths of land were converted into farmland to account for the growing agricultural industry. During this time, the potential for Florida to be a tourist destination was also discovered with more and more families traveling to the “sunshine state” for warm beach vacations17,18. In more recent times after World War II, Florida’s economy has greatly diversified with electronics, plastics, and real estate. Banking is now playing a larger role in the economy, yet tourism has grown to be the most significant portion of the GDP for the state19.

F. United States of America - Nevada Nevada had a relatively quiet history up until the mid-1800’s, serving primarily as a thoroughfare to California during the Gold Rush20. In 1859 the Comstock Lode silver mine was discovered and the mining economy in Nevada boomed and continued to be the main source of income for many years. The cattle-ranching economy in Nevada also began to pick up around this time20. Throughout the next several decades, Nevada’s largely mining-based economy went through several booms and depressions heavily dependent on the supply and demand of silver and gold20. Tourism in Nevada grew rapidly after the state-wide legalization of gambling in 1931. Once this happened, Reno and Las Vegas became the gambling hubs of Nevada and to this day draw millions of tourists every year20. The construction of the Hoover Dam supplied Nevada with enough power to kickstart the manufacturing industry in 193620. This provided a boon to Nevada’s tourism industry as it continued to grow, industrialization assisted by the new manufacturing abilities benefitted the various tourism industries greatly20.

III. Comparison to Space Economic Utilization Currently, the space surrounding Earth is primarily utilized as a strategic asset, much like many of the terrestrial examples early in their history. While strategic assets are primarily considered as government funded endeavors to obtain or transmit/receive information, commercial communication activities also take on a strategic veil by occupying specific orbital locations and communication frequencies that cannot be legally used by competitors. Very few products have been created in space for terrestrial use and none of them have been tried or even identified as possibly sustainable. The space economy is currently in its infancy and historical trends have shown that a sustainable, relevant tourist economy occurs after significant development, both in time and capability. The economy is in need of the first resource-driven capability for a jumpstart to occur. The first profitable product that is produced will undoubtedly start a cascade of other industries that require the unique space environment for the production of goods that cannot be replicated in a terrestrial environment.

IV. First Potential Product It can be extrapolated that manufacturing can serve as a key driver for expanding the space economy. Cost effective products that are

Downloaded by UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA on January 21, 2018 | http://arc.aiaa.org DOI: 10.2514/6.2017-5366 producible off Earth’s surface and imported back to the ground can serve as this developmental force. This involves not only creating items out of resources that can be extracted, refined, and utilized on orbit by space resource companies, but also by making products that are still profitable after launching their base components and returning the refined product to Earth. Utilizing the unique resource of the microgravity environment, many academic and research breakthroughs have been made in the past decades, especially in drug Figure 1. Made In Space Optical Fiber Production development and materials science. What is needed, then, is identifying the markets Payload (MIS Fiber). where space manufacturing can add value while 3 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

remaining profitable after launch, production, and recovery are considered. Made In Space, Inc. has identified the first of these products: a flouride glass called ZBLAN (composed of ZrF4, BaF2, LaF3, AlF3, NaF). The material will be manufactured into an optical fiber from an automated production demonstration occurring onboard the ISS in 2017 (shown in Figure 1). ZBLAN is commercially produced in small quantities today on Earth (on the order of 100 kilograms per year) but the full potential of this material has yet to be realized. Despite the low attenuation predicted by theory (see red line in Figure 2), extrinsic scattering and absorption lead to typical attenuation losses (see green line in Figure 2) that have made the material ineffective for long transmission distances when compared to silica (see yellow line in Figure 2), limiting its use to specialized applications requiring infrared wavelength fibers, sensors, and power transmission. Past research has shown evidence that the production of ZBLAN in microgravity suppresses the convective processes which lead to crystallization, reducing the scattering losses that limit the material when it is produced on Earth21. For example, several qualitative tests performed in short-term microgravity environments have demonstrated suppression of the crystallization process, as shown in Figure 321. When this crystallization is suppressed in ZBLAN optical fiber, attenuation could drop significantly relative to the best fiber produced terrestrially (shown above in Figure 2 under “Actual Performance”). This Figure 2: Theoretical performance curves of Silica (yellow) and attenuation drop improves effectiveness ZBLAN (red) optical fibers compared to the actual performance and leads to new applications. For 22 example, telecommunication lines that (green) achieved by terrestrial manufacturers of ZBLAN . can stretch across oceans without the need for repeaters, cutting latency time and increasing the amount of data throughput when compared with the current silica fiber based telecommunication lines. The goal of the MIS Fiber payload is to produce several hundred meters of fiber and down-mass it for analysis. The fiber will then be compared to the theoretical performance of ZBLAN fiber as well as to Figure 3: ZBLAN manufactured in unit gravity (A) and the performance of fiber generated from a manufactured in microgravity (B)22. control unit placed on the Earth. This setup will serve as a basis for studying the Downloaded by UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA on January 21, 2018 | http://arc.aiaa.org DOI: 10.2514/6.2017-5366 effects of microgravity on production and will provide quantitative measurements comparing attenuation. The current terrestrial ZBLAN optical fiber market value can support the costs associated with the launch, manufacture, and recovery of the material. One kg of ZBLAN can produce between 3 and 6 km of optical fiber with each meter being sold between $100 and $1500 per meter, depending on quality and quantity. Even using conservative estimates, the current price established for the ground-quality fiber supports the cost associated with spaceflight. The exponential increase in performance achieved by manufacturing ZBLAN optical fiber in space would drive demand and unlock untapped markets for the material. This manufacturing experiment provides a new avenue for commercialization and utilization of space: refined material production. Demonstration of manufacturing a material in LEO that is superior to its Earth-produced counterpart will mark a fundamental shift in how space is used to benefit Earth. This product alone, when fully utilized, supports the necessity for in-space manufacturing infrastructure to exist, further driving the need for a permanent presence in the orbital environment. If the large sections of the terrestrial exotic glass and silica optical fiber market is replaced with ZBLAN fiber, thousands of kilograms will be needed to be processed annually to fill the increased demand. Future crewed space science stations and space hotels are then justified by the economies of 4 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

scale, as more complicated devices that can generate the amount of fiber necessary to meet demand can most reliably be achieved by using systems that humans can interface with directly and maintain. Such expansion would increase output for a given mission and potentially lead to permanent factories located in Earth orbit.

V. Conclusion As advances in medium and heavy launch services lower access costs, tourism is likely to be a contributing factor in the development of a sustainable Earth orbit economy. However, a survey of popular travel destinations indicates that tourism is not a significant driver of long term sustainability. Rather, a solid manufacturing and industrial infrastructure, such as the production of optical fiber, lays the foundation needed for ancillary economies. Made In Space is developing the production of one such product that it believes is the first of many profitable commercial space enabled materials.

References 1 The SpaceX Falcon Heavy Booster: Why Is It Important? (2011, Sept.). Retrieved February 22, 2017, from http://www.nss.org/articles/falconheavy.html. 2 SpaceX's new price chart illustrates performance cost of reusability. (2016, May 05). Retrieved February 22, 2017, from [1]. 3 Turner, R. (2015). Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2015 United States of America (pp. 1-5, Rep. No. 2015). London: World Travel & Tourism Council. 4 The Manufacturing Footprint and the Importance of U.S. Manufacturing Jobs. (2015, Jan 22). Retrieved February 22, 2017, from http://www.epi.org/publication/the-manufacturing-footprint-and-the-importance-of-u-s-manufacturing-jobs/. 5 Globus, A. (Feb. 2017), "A Radically Easier Path to Space Settlement," Free Space Settlement [online] http://space.alglobus.net/papers/RadicallyEasier.pdf 6 Webber, D. “Space Tourism – Essential Step in Human Settlement of Space,” 63rd International Astronautical Congress Paper IAC-12-A5.2x13278, 2012 7 Collins, P. (2003) “Space Tourism Market Demand and the Transportation Infrastructure,” Space Future [online] http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/space_tourism_market_demand_and_the_transportation_infrastructure.shtml 8 Porter, L. (7 April 2016) “Mapped: The countries that rely most on your money,” The Telegraph [online] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/maps-and-graphics/Mapped-The-countries-that-rely-most-on-your-money/ 9 Polland, J. (30 October 2014) “A Detailed Look at How Americans Travel Within the US,” Business Insider [online] http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-popular-us-states-for-tourism-2014-10 10 Sit, V., “Evolution of Macau's Economy and Its Export-Oriented Industries,” The Copenhagen Journal of Asian Studies, Vol. 6, 1991, pp. 63-91 11 Huang, K. “American Business and the China Trade Embargo in the 1950s,” Essays in Economic and Business History (2001) Vol. 19, 2001, pp. 33-48 12 “Maldives: History,” The Commonwealth, [online] http://thecommonwealth.org/our-member-countries/maldives/history [retrieved 15 August 2017] 13 “Economy Maldives,” History Central, [online] http://www.historycentral.com/nationbynation/Maldives/Economy.html [retrieved 15 August 2017] 14 “Virgin Islands History” VInow, [online] http://www.vinow.com/general_usvi/history/ [retrieved 15 August 2017] 15 “California's People, Economy, and Politics: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow,” California State University, Stanislaus [online] https://www.csustan.edu/sites/default/files/PPA/SHM/Pages/psci1201/California-chpt1.pdf [retrieved 15 August 2017] 16 “European Exploration and Colonization” Florida Department of State [online] http://dos.myflorida.com/florida- facts/florida-history/a-brief-history/european-exploration-and-colonization/ [retrieved 15 August 2017] 17 “Territorial Period” Florida Department of State [online] http://dos.myflorida.com/florida-facts/florida-history/a-brief-

Downloaded by UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA on January 21, 2018 | http://arc.aiaa.org DOI: 10.2514/6.2017-5366 history/territorial-period/ [retrieved 15 August 2017] 18 “Florida Development” Florida Department of State [online] http://dos.myflorida.com/florida-facts/florida-history/a-brief- history/florida-development/ [retrieved 15 August 2017] 19 “World War II and Post-War Boom” Florida Department of State [online] http://dos.myflorida.com/florida-facts/florida- history/a-brief-history/world-war-ii-and-post-war-boom/ [retrieved 15 August 2017] 20 “Nevada” Encyclopedia Britannica [online] https://www.britannica.com/place/Nevada-state [retrieved 15 August 2017] 21 Tucker, D. S., Ethridge, E. C., Smith, G. A., & Workman, G. (2004). Effects of Gravity on ZBLAN Glass Crystallization. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences,1027(1), 129-137. doi:10.1196/annals.1324.012. 22 Eley, S., Et al. (2002 Apr 11). Final Report: Optical Properties of ZBLANMicrospheres Produced in Microgravity (Rep.).

5 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics