TO ALL OUR NURSES, THANK YOU

TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT

July 2, 2020 CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

13 TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS & QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 & INTERVENTIONS

ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING

14 WHAT IS AN OUTBREAK?

EXAMPLE SPREAD OF COVID-19 • Rapid rise in TRANSMISSION RATE OF 2 occurrence of disease • Can be localized or widespread • COVID-19 is transmitted through air, surfaces, and contact

Graphic from https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/health/flu-vs-coronavirus-deaths/index.html INTERVENTIONS & OPENING TX

1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN 2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS 3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC 4. SCHOOL CLOSURES 5. OPEN TX 1, 2, 3, 3 repealed

16 REPORT FOR 12 COUNTY COASTAL BEND TOTAL CASES

17 COASTAL BEND COVID-19 CASES 2941 CB -Wide TOTAL CASES Outbreak 2503 CB Estimate: ACTIVE CASES 2-4% of Population Actively Infected 429 CB Local RECOVERIES Outbreaks 9 CB FATALITIES

18 Stay-at- Open Masks Home TX 1 2 3 2 NUECES

REST OF COASTAL BEND

19 Jim Wells San Patricio Stay-at- Open Masks Home TX 1 2 3 2 Duval

Kleberg

Live Oak Aransas Bee Refugio 20 Nueces Open TX 1 2 3 2 Laredo McAllen Brownsville

Portland Aransas

21 1 PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS Austin 2/3 4/5r San Antonio 9/10 7 Amarillo 6/5s 8 El Paso 11 Open 2 3 TX 1 Longview CASES ACCUMULATING RAPIDLY IN NUECES COUNTY IN PAST WEEK

NUECES #1 SAN ANTONIO AUSTIN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO

NUECES HOUSTON DALLAS DALLAS

HOUSTON NUECES COUNTY Open TX 1 2 3

On Avg. 30% of All Tests are Positive CELL PHONES CAN BE USED TO ASSESS OUR BEHAVIORS, EVALUATE INTERVENTIONS

Foot Leaving Potential Traffic Home Encounters

25 In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker WHAT ABOUT OUR PRIVACY?

• Apps track your location and the data is sold to businesses • Google maps • Facebook • Instagram • Flashlight • Anonymized data is used for targeted advertising & decision making MANY ARE LEAVING HOME PRE STAY OPEN MASKS Cell Phone COVID AT TX 1 2 3 2 Location Model HOME • Proportion DISTANCE leaving home TRAVELED per day LEAVING • Device leaves HOME home triggers count

• Distance traveled

27 POTENTIAL ENCOUNTERS TOO HIGH ON WEEKENDS PRE STAY OPEN MASKS Cell Phone COVID AT TX 1 2 3 2 Location Model HOME • Number of FRI-SAT encounters per km2 per day scaled to Nueces MON-THU • Estimate probability of contact • 2 devices within 50 meters for less than 60 minutes 28 ESSENTIAL & NON-ESSENTIAL GATHERINGS

Cell Phone Foot HOME Traffic Model IMPROVEMENT • Visits to local establishments GROCERY counted MALLS • Device near or RESTAURANTS in building BARS • safeGraph.com PRE STAY OPEN MASKS COVID HOME TX 1 2 3 2 MOVIES

29 TRANSMISSION RATE IS TOO HIGH Week 4 PEOPLE INFECTED Week Week PER CARRIER Week 2 3 1 136 Infected 3.1SOUTH TEXAS In 1 month

3 10 30 92 30 STAY-AT- OPEN 84% HOME TX 1 2 3 Reduction in Transmission

COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to

19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID

31 STAY-AT- OPEN HOME TX 1 2 3 2

68% Reduction in Transmission COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to

19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID

32 EXPONENTIAL PROJECTION CB FIT OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL SAME MODEL, PROJECTING 4 DAYS TO ACCUMULATION OF CASES IN INTO FUTURE NUECES SINCE MAY 22, 2020

OPEN OPEN TX 2 3 2 TX 2 3 2 EXPONENTIAL PROJECTION NUECES

FIT OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL SAME MODEL, PROJECTING 4 DAYS TO ACCUMULATION OF CASES IN INTO FUTURE NUECES SINCE MAY 22, 2020

OPEN OPEN TX 2 3 2 TX 2 3 2 SUMMARY • Texas-Wide-Outbreak • COVID-19 still expanding in South TX • 1 in every 25-50 Coastal Bend residents have COVID • Up to 8 more days until changes made last Friday affect cases • Today’s new cases were infected last week • Hospitals experiencing surge

35 HELP CONTAIN OUTBREAK • Task force recommends you do as much as possible to stop the transmission of COVID • No Shirt, No Mask, No Service

• Close loopholes in social distancing policies

36 WHAT CAN WE DO TO CONTROL THE SPREAD OF COVID-19? • Each of us can make a difference • Face coverings in public decrease transmission by up to 50% • Social distance (6+ ft) • Self-isolate when symptomatic • Stay-at-Home if you can • Postpone social gatherings, or have them online • Curbside & takeout • Support testing & contact tracing https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

37 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19-response

• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice President Mahdy • Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work • Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn, Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts, Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner

38 Brownsville Laredo

SOUTH TEXAS COUNTIES w/ “METRO”8

McAllen

DELETE SLIDE Nueces Portland

Aransas

39 Amarillo

1 PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS 2/3 4/5r 9/108 7 Dallas 8 6/5s Houston Longview El Paso 11 Austin DELETE SLIDE San Antonio South Texas

40 Out- Breaks Nursing Homes

Replace w/ 2 axis figure NUECES COUNTY 11% TexasOut-wide- OutBreaks-Break Local Replace w/ 2 axis figure Out- Breaks PHONE ENCOUNTERS

Cell Phone Location Model BASELINE • Number of encounters per DELETE SLIDE km2 per day scaled to Nueces TEXAS FLORIDA • Estimate COLORADO probability of ARIZONA contact NEW YORK • 2 devices within 50 meters for less than 60 minutes 43 SCHOOL CLOSURES EFFECTIVE

Cell Phone BASELINE Location Model • Visits to schools, K-12- DELETE SLIDESTAY PhD AT • Device near or HOME in building UNIVERSITIES • safeGraph.com K-12

JR COLLEGES

44 MEDICAL OFFICE FOOT TRAFFIC STAY Cell Phone AT Location Model HOME • Visits to medical DELETE SLIDE facilities EYE & DENTAL • Phone near or in building DR OFFICES & LABS • safeGraph.com HOSPITALS

45 Maybe Slide for ISDs (Could just put on website)

• Corpus Christi ISD • [email protected] • Looking to follow Texas Education Agency Guidance • Current plan includes starting on August 13

• Flour Bluff ISD • District Phone 361-694-9000 • District email [email protected] • https://flourbluffschools.net/coronavirus-covid-19-updates/

• London ISD • District Phone 361-855-0092 • Looking to follow Texas Education Agency Guidance • Considering two options found here (http://www.londonisd.net/)

• All other Coastal Bend ISD/CSDs can be found here: https://www.esc2.net/schools/ CASE DATA REPORT

47 CASES RISING AMONG ALL AGE GROUPS

20-39 Stay-at- Open Home Texas 1 2 3 40-59

80+ 60-79 0-19 Houston Dallas San Antonio McAllen Austin El Paso Longview Corpus Christi Amarillo Laredo

Open Masks TX 1 2 3 2 Open TX 1 2 3 McAllen Houston San Antonio

El Paso Dallas Austin Laredo Corpus Christi Longview Amarillo INTERVENTIONS DECREASE TRANSMISSION

1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN 2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS 3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC 4. SCHOOL CLOSURES 5. RESTRICTIONS TIGHTENED ON GATHERINGS/ BARS/ RESTAURANTS

51 Statewide “Open Texas” COVID in March Philosophy • Slowly Roll Back Interventions

• Contain Flare Ups • Example: May Nueces ‘Stay-at-Home’: Turn Off Outbreaks • Example: Close Restaurant Dining Rooms

• Stop Rolling Back Interventions When COVID Gets Too Hot ‘Open Texas’: How High Can We Turn the Dial Before it Gets Too Hot? SOMETIMES THE BURNER IS HOTTER THAN IT LOOKS

COVID in March COVID in May (heating up)

COVID in April COVID Now EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS SIMULATE THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

SUCEPTIBLE INTERVENTIONS x TRANSMISSION RATE INFECTIOUS

RECOVERED HOSPITAL

ICU

MORTALITY STAY-AT- OPEN HOME TX 1 2 3

70% Reduction in Transmission COVID-19 Confirmed Admits in

19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID

55 STAY-AT- OPEN HOME TX 1 2 3

70% Reduction in COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to Transmission 19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID

56 Updated 2 JULY @ 1000 STAY-AT- OPEN 80% HOME TX 1 2 3 Reduction in Transmission

COVID-19 Confirmed Admits in

19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID

58