TO ALL OUR NURSES, THANK YOU
TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
July 2, 2020 CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID
13 TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES
ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS & QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 & INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING
14 WHAT IS AN OUTBREAK?
EXAMPLE SPREAD OF COVID-19 • Rapid rise in TRANSMISSION RATE OF 2 occurrence of disease • Can be localized or widespread • COVID-19 is transmitted through air, surfaces, and contact
Graphic from https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/health/flu-vs-coronavirus-deaths/index.html INTERVENTIONS & OPENING TX
1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN 2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS 3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC 4. SCHOOL CLOSURES 5. OPEN TX 1, 2, 3, 3 repealed
16 REPORT FOR 12 COUNTY COASTAL BEND TOTAL CASES
17 COASTAL BEND COVID-19 CASES 2941 CB Texas-Wide TOTAL CASES Outbreak 2503 CB Estimate: ACTIVE CASES 2-4% of Population Actively Infected 429 CB Local RECOVERIES Outbreaks 9 CB FATALITIES
18 Stay-at- Open Masks Home TX 1 2 3 2 NUECES
REST OF COASTAL BEND
19 Jim Wells San Patricio Stay-at- Open Masks Home TX 1 2 3 2 Duval
Kleberg
Live Oak Aransas Bee Refugio 20 Nueces Open TX 1 2 3 2 Laredo McAllen San Antonio Brownsville
Portland Aransas
21 South Texas 1 PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS Austin 2/3 4/5r San Antonio 9/10 7 Amarillo 6/5s Houston 8 El Paso Dallas 11 Open 2 3 TX 1 Longview CASES ACCUMULATING RAPIDLY IN NUECES COUNTY IN PAST WEEK
NUECES #1 SAN ANTONIO AUSTIN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO
NUECES HOUSTON DALLAS DALLAS
HOUSTON NUECES COUNTY Open TX 1 2 3
On Avg. 30% of All Tests are Positive CELL PHONES CAN BE USED TO ASSESS OUR BEHAVIORS, EVALUATE INTERVENTIONS
Foot Leaving Potential Traffic Home Encounters
25 In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker WHAT ABOUT OUR PRIVACY?
• Apps track your location and the data is sold to businesses • Google maps • Facebook • Instagram • Flashlight • Anonymized data is used for targeted advertising & decision making MANY ARE LEAVING HOME PRE STAY OPEN MASKS Cell Phone COVID AT TX 1 2 3 2 Location Model HOME • Proportion DISTANCE leaving home TRAVELED per day LEAVING • Device leaves HOME home triggers count
• Distance traveled
27 POTENTIAL ENCOUNTERS TOO HIGH ON WEEKENDS PRE STAY OPEN MASKS Cell Phone COVID AT TX 1 2 3 2 Location Model HOME • Number of FRI-SAT encounters per km2 per day scaled to Nueces MON-THU • Estimate probability of contact • 2 devices within 50 meters for less than 60 minutes 28 ESSENTIAL & NON-ESSENTIAL GATHERINGS
Cell Phone Foot HOME Traffic Model IMPROVEMENT • Visits to local establishments GROCERY counted MALLS • Device near or RESTAURANTS in building BARS • safeGraph.com PRE STAY OPEN MASKS COVID HOME TX 1 2 3 2 MOVIES
29 TRANSMISSION RATE IS TOO HIGH Week 4 PEOPLE INFECTED Week Week PER CARRIER Week 2 3 1 136 Infected 3.1SOUTH TEXAS In 1 month
3 10 30 92 30 STAY-AT- OPEN 84% HOME TX 1 2 3 Reduction in Transmission
COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to
19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID
31 STAY-AT- OPEN HOME TX 1 2 3 2
68% Reduction in Transmission COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to
19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID
32 EXPONENTIAL PROJECTION CB FIT OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL SAME MODEL, PROJECTING 4 DAYS TO ACCUMULATION OF CASES IN INTO FUTURE NUECES SINCE MAY 22, 2020
OPEN OPEN TX 2 3 2 TX 2 3 2 EXPONENTIAL PROJECTION NUECES
FIT OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL SAME MODEL, PROJECTING 4 DAYS TO ACCUMULATION OF CASES IN INTO FUTURE NUECES SINCE MAY 22, 2020
OPEN OPEN TX 2 3 2 TX 2 3 2 SUMMARY • Texas-Wide-Outbreak • COVID-19 still expanding in South TX • 1 in every 25-50 Coastal Bend residents have COVID • Up to 8 more days until changes made last Friday affect cases • Today’s new cases were infected last week • Hospitals experiencing surge
35 HELP CONTAIN OUTBREAK • Task force recommends you do as much as possible to stop the transmission of COVID • No Shirt, No Mask, No Service
• Close loopholes in social distancing policies
36 WHAT CAN WE DO TO CONTROL THE SPREAD OF COVID-19? • Each of us can make a difference • Face coverings in public decrease transmission by up to 50% • Social distance (6+ ft) • Self-isolate when symptomatic • Stay-at-Home if you can • Postpone social gatherings, or have them online • Curbside & takeout • Support testing & contact tracing https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID
37 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19-response
• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice President Mahdy • Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work • Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn, Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts, Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner
38 Brownsville Laredo
SOUTH TEXAS COUNTIES w/ “METRO”8
McAllen
DELETE SLIDE Nueces Portland
Aransas
39 Amarillo
1 PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS 2/3 4/5r 9/108 7 Dallas 8 6/5s Houston Longview El Paso 11 Austin DELETE SLIDE San Antonio South Texas
40 Out- Breaks Nursing Homes
Replace w/ 2 axis figure NUECES COUNTY 11% TexasOut-wide- OutBreaks-Break Local Replace w/ 2 axis figure Out- Breaks PHONE ENCOUNTERS
Cell Phone Location Model BASELINE • Number of encounters per DELETE SLIDE km2 per day scaled to Nueces TEXAS FLORIDA • Estimate COLORADO probability of ARIZONA contact NEW YORK • 2 devices within 50 meters for less than 60 minutes 43 SCHOOL CLOSURES EFFECTIVE
Cell Phone BASELINE Location Model • Visits to schools, K-12- DELETE SLIDESTAY PhD AT • Device near or HOME in building UNIVERSITIES • safeGraph.com K-12
JR COLLEGES
44 MEDICAL OFFICE FOOT TRAFFIC STAY Cell Phone AT Location Model HOME • Visits to medical DELETE SLIDE facilities EYE & DENTAL • Phone near or in building DR OFFICES & LABS • safeGraph.com HOSPITALS
45 Maybe Slide for ISDs (Could just put on website)
• Corpus Christi ISD • [email protected] • Looking to follow Texas Education Agency Guidance • Current plan includes starting on August 13
• Flour Bluff ISD • District Phone 361-694-9000 • District email [email protected] • https://flourbluffschools.net/coronavirus-covid-19-updates/
• London ISD • District Phone 361-855-0092 • Looking to follow Texas Education Agency Guidance • Considering two options found here (http://www.londonisd.net/)
• All other Coastal Bend ISD/CSDs can be found here: https://www.esc2.net/schools/ CASE DATA REPORT
47 CASES RISING AMONG ALL AGE GROUPS
20-39 Stay-at- Open Home Texas 1 2 3 40-59
80+ 60-79 0-19 Houston Dallas San Antonio McAllen Austin El Paso Longview Corpus Christi Amarillo Laredo
Open Masks TX 1 2 3 2 Open TX 1 2 3 McAllen Houston San Antonio
El Paso Dallas Austin Laredo Corpus Christi Longview Amarillo INTERVENTIONS DECREASE TRANSMISSION
1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN 2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS 3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC 4. SCHOOL CLOSURES 5. RESTRICTIONS TIGHTENED ON GATHERINGS/ BARS/ RESTAURANTS
51 Statewide “Open Texas” COVID in March Philosophy • Slowly Roll Back Interventions
• Contain Flare Ups • Example: May Nueces ‘Stay-at-Home’: Turn Off Outbreaks • Example: Close Restaurant Dining Rooms
• Stop Rolling Back Interventions When COVID Gets Too Hot ‘Open Texas’: How High Can We Turn the Dial Before it Gets Too Hot? SOMETIMES THE BURNER IS HOTTER THAN IT LOOKS
COVID in March COVID in May (heating up)
COVID in April COVID Now EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS SIMULATE THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
SUCEPTIBLE INTERVENTIONS x TRANSMISSION RATE INFECTIOUS
RECOVERED HOSPITAL
ICU
MORTALITY STAY-AT- OPEN HOME TX 1 2 3
70% Reduction in Transmission COVID-19 Confirmed Admits in
19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID
55 STAY-AT- OPEN HOME TX 1 2 3
70% Reduction in COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to Transmission 19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID
56 Updated 2 JULY @ 1000 STAY-AT- OPEN 80% HOME TX 1 2 3 Reduction in Transmission
COVID-19 Confirmed Admits in
19 PATIENTS Coastal Bend Hospitals - COVID
58