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Regional PC Hardware Sector Information Technology / China and Taiwan 5 June 2014 Cloud data centres: a different Regional PC Hardware Sector ball game for the PC supply chain Positive (unchanged) • The cloud data centre business offers promising opportunities for Neutral the PC hardware supply chain, but it’s not for everyone Negative • The improving earnings quality of cloud hardware-related suppliers should be a catalyst for a rerating • We prefer Quanta, Lenovo, and Delta in our coverage universe How do we justify our view? High-density servers continue (12-23x) and the PC sector’s derating to shine. To cope with the higher (from 13-16x in 2012 to 11-13x since compute density requirements of mid-2013). Sustained improvement data centres, demand for customised in data-centre-related players’ high-density servers (including so- earnings quality, driven by the Steven Tseng called white-box servers) will lucrative cloud business, should bode (886) 2 8758 6252 continue to rise strongly, favouring well for this rerating trend. [email protected] the server ODMs, eg, Quanta (2382 TT), while putting pressure on server In our coverage universe, our top pick Jason Chen OEMs (eg, Dell). The aggressive is Quanta (upgrading to Buy [1], from (886) 2 8758 6251 [email protected] pricing of public cloud services also Outperform [2]), and we like Delta suggests rising pressure on the (2308 TT) and Lenovo (992 HK) demand for branded OEM servers. (maintained at Outperform [2]). We ■ What's new believe all 3 are seeing structural In our view, cloud data centres offer China – a promising but unique improvements in their product mixes promising earnings growth market. Foreign server vendors as a result of rising contributions from opportunities for the related PC face headwinds in China due to a the cloud business. We also highlight hardware companies; and we look policy-driven preference for several components plays in the PC for a rerating of those related domestic vendors. Also, major supply chain, whose exposure to cloud companies over the next 6 months. Internet players (eg, Baidu, Alibaba, computing should rise. The main risk Tencent) are stepping up efforts to to our positive view would be weaker- ■ What's the impact expand the cloud infrastructure. than-expected demand for public Big data drives cloud demand. cloud IT services. Cisco Systems (CSCO US, USD24.5, Implications for the PC supply Outperform [2]) expects global chain. 1) The data centre business, ■ How we differ mobile data traffic to grow at a which has higher ASPs/margins, can We are one of the few brokers to CAGR of 61% from 2013 to 2018. In enhance earnings quality for players provide a detailed analysis on cloud our view, such strength of “Big data” in the space, but not for everyone data centres and the beneficiaries. will be the fundamental demand due to the higher entry barriers. 2) driver for cloud computing-related We see better growth opportunities infrastructure spending, including from any product solutions that Key stock calls spending on data centres. effectively address the compute and New Prev. energy density issues of data centres Quanta Computer (2382 TT) Public clouds take the lead. The (eg, white-box servers). 3) We see Rating Buy Outperform aggressive capex of public cloud promising opportunities for China’s Target 94.00 94.00 service providers (like Google and server OEMs (as opposed to global Upside 17.5% Amazon), which in aggregate posted OEMs) on solid domestic demand. Delta Electronics (2308 TT) a capex CAGR of 35% in 2011-13, Rating Outperform Outperform should be the major driver of global ■ What we recommend Target 220.00 220.00 Upside 14.6% data centre build-out. Going Data centre-related PC hardware plays have seen a steady rerating over Lenovo Group (992 HK) forward, we see large enterprises as Rating Outperform Outperform the next growth engine, as cloud- the past 2-3 years (from 10x PER in Target 10.40 10.00 related initiatives start to take shape late 2011 to 15-16x), versus the Upside 8.4% in several industries. smartphone sector’s higher volatility Source: Daiwa forecasts. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 41 Regional PC Hardware Sector 5 June 2014 Positive (unchanged) How do we justify our view? Neutral Growth outlook Negative Valuation Earnings revisions Global enterprise spending on cloud computing Growth outlook According to forecasts from IHS, worldwide enterprise (USDbn) spending on cloud computing, which includes 250 CAGR of 20% infrastructure and services, should reach USD174bn in 2014E (up 20% YoY from USD145bn in 2013), and rise 200 further to reach USD235bn in 2017E, suggesting a CAGR of 20% from 2011 to 2017E. We believe such a 150 promising growth outlook bodes well for the cloud data centre-related suppliers in the PC hardware sector. 100 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Source: IHS Sector forward PER bands comparison Valuation Over the past 2-3 years, the cloud-related hardware 25 players have enjoyed a steady rerating from a 10x PER in late 2011 to about 15-16x currently, which we think 20 was a result of the their improving earnings quality, driven by a better product mix, with a rising contribution from the high-margin cloud business. 15 In terms of other hardware segments, over the same 10 period, the smartphone sector enjoyed a higher multiple but saw greater volatility (12-23x PER), while the PC 5 sector suffered a derating (from 13-16x in 2012 to 11-13x Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 since mid-2013). Cloud Sector PC Sector Handset Sector Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Cloud Sector: consensus 2014-15E EPS revisions Earnings revisions The 2014-15 Bloomberg consensus earnings forecasts 108 for the cloud related hardware companies have shown a 106 clear upward trend over the past 6 months, as we think 104 the market’s concerns about the weaker notebook PC 102 outlook has been gradually offset by the stronger cloud business. 100 98 We see further upgrades from here as likely, as the 96 decline in global PC shipments narrows and prospects 94 for the cloud data centre business remain promising. 92 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 2014E Index 2015E Index Source: Bloomberg - 2 - Regional PC Hardware Sector 5 June 2014 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg Acer 2353 TT 20.95 Sell Sell 11.50 11.50 0.0% (7.260) (7.260) n.a. (3.387) (3.387) n.a. ASUSTeK Computer 2357 TT 325.00 Underperform Underperform 282.00 282.00 0.0% 25.830 25.830 0.0% 24.562 24.562 0.0% Casetek Holdings 5264 TT 168.50 Hold Hold 156.00 156.00 0.0% 17.067 17.067 0.0% 18.397 18.397 0.0% Catcher Technology 2474 TT 282.00 Outperform Outperform 296.00 296.00 0.0% 19.487 19.487 0.0% 24.281 24.281 0.0% Compal Electronics 2324 TT 24.20 Outperform Outperform 26.00 26.00 0.0% 1.303 1.303 0.0% 2.705 2.705 0.0% Delta Electronics 2308 TT 192.00 Outperform Outperform 220.00 220.00 0.0% 8.858 8.858 0.0% 10.299 10.299 0.0% Foxconn Technology 2354 TT 70.20 Underperform Underperform 69.00 69.00 0.0% 5.977 5.977 0.0% 6.060 6.060 0.0% Ju Teng International 3336 HK 6.14 Buy Buy 7.10 7.10 0.0% 0.645 0.645 0.0% 0.888 0.888 0.0% Lenovo Group 992 HK 9.59 Outperform Outperform 10.40 10.00 4.0% 0.089 0.086 3.8% 0.104 0.102 1.8% Pegatron Corp 4938 TT 56.30 Outperform Outperform 54.00 54.00 0.0% 4.964 4.964 0.0% 5.431 5.431 0.0% Quanta Computer 2382 TT 80.00 Buy Outperform 94.00 94.00 0.0% 5.791 5.791 0.0% 6.748 6.748 0.0% Simplo Technology 6121 TT 166.00 Outperform Outperform 175.00 175.00 0.0% 11.970 11.970 0.0% 13.064 13.064 0.0% Wistron 3231 TT 27.10 Hold Hold 24.00 24.00 0.0% 2.227 2.227 0.0% 2.817 2.817 0.0% Source: Daiwa forecasts - 3 - Regional PC Hardware Sector 5 June 2014 Contents Cloud data centres: a different ball game ....................................................................................5 Key industry trends ................................................................................................................... 5 Implications for the PC hardware supply chain ...................................................................... 9 Valuation and recommendation ............................................................................................. 11 Company Section Quanta Computer .................................................................................................................... 13 Delta Electronics ..................................................................................................................... 17 Lenovo Group .......................................................................................................................... 21 Inventec ................................................................................................................................... 25 King Slide Works ..................................................................................................................... 27 AcBel Polytech ........................................................................................................................ 29 MiTAC ..................................................................................................................................... 31 Voltronic Power Technology .................................................................................................. 33 Chaun-Choung Technology
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