Social Prediction: a New Research Paradigm Based on Machine Learning
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
From Factors to Actors: Computational Sociology and Agent-Based Modeling1
From Factors to Actors: Computational Sociology and Agent-Based Modeling1 Michael W. Macy Robert Willer Cornell University August, 2001 Contents: 73 citations (2.5 published pages), 1 figure (1 page), 8522 main-text words (19.5 published pages) Total length: 23 published pages 1 The first author expresses gratitude to the National Science Foundation (SES-0079381) for support during the period in which this review was written. We also thank James Kitts, Andreas Flache, and Noah Mark for helpful comments and suggestions. From Factors to Actors: Computational Sociology and Agent-Based Modeling Introduction: Agent-Based Models and Self-Organizing Group Processes Consider a flock of geese flying in tight formation. Collectively, they form the image of a giant delta-shaped bird that moves as purposively as if it were a single organism. Yet the flock has no “group mind” nor is there a “leader bird” choreographing the formation (Resnick 1994). Rather, each bird reacts to the movement of its immediate neighbors who in turn react to it. The result is the graceful dance-like movement of the flock whose hypnotic rhythm is clearly patterned yet also highly non-linear. If we tried to model the global elegance of the flock, the task would be immensely difficult because of the extreme complexity in its movement. Yet the task turns out to be remarkably easy if instead we model the dynamics of local interaction. This was demonstrated by Craig Reynolds (1987) when he modeled the movement of a population of artificial “boids” based on three simple rules: • Separation: Don't get too close to any object, including other boids. -
Westminsterresearch Sociology and Non-Equilibrium Social Science Anzola, D., Barbrook-Johnson, P., Salgado, M. and Gilbert, N
WestminsterResearch http://www.westminster.ac.uk/westminsterresearch Sociology and Non-Equilibrium Social Science Anzola, D., Barbrook-Johnson, P., Salgado, M. and Gilbert, N. This is a copy of the final version of a copy published in: Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy, Springer, pp. 59-69. ISBN 9783319424224 Available from the publisher, Springer via: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42424-8_4 © The Author(s) 2017. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, duplication, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The WestminsterResearch online digital archive at the University of Westminster aims to make the research output of the University available to a wider audience. Copyright and Moral Rights remain with the authors and/or copyright owners. Whilst further distribution of specific materials from within this archive is forbidden, you may freely distribute the URL of WestminsterResearch: ((http://westminsterresearch.wmin.ac.uk/). In case of abuse or copyright appearing without permission e-mail [email protected] Sociology and Non-Equilibrium Social Science David Anzola, Peter Barbrook-Johnson, Mauricio Salgado, and Nigel Gilbert Abstract This chapter addresses the relationship between sociology and Non- Equilibrium Social Science (NESS). Sociology is a multiparadigmatic discipline with significant disagreement regarding its goals and status as a scientific discipline. Different theories and methods coexist temporally and geographically. -
Reconstructing the Concept of Face in Cultural Sociology: in Goffman's Footsteps, Following the Chinese Case
Qi The Journal of Chinese Sociology (2017) 4:19 The Journal of DOI 10.1186/s40711-017-0069-y Chinese Sociology RESEARCH Open Access Reconstructing the concept of face in cultural sociology: in Goffman’s footsteps, following the Chinese case Xiaoying Qi Correspondence: Abstract [email protected] Australian Catholic University, Australia and Hong Kong Baptist Few readers notice that in a celebrated essay, Goffman, in a footnote, acknowledges University, Hong Kong, Special the Chinese source of his concept of face. Around the time that Goffman published Administrative Region of China “On Face-work,” Merton urged that theory development requires, among other things, clarification or refinement of concepts. If culture is taken to be effectively related to action and meaning, it is necessary to go beyond the approach in which theories, concepts, and methods developed in one socio-cultural context are simply applied to data generated in another. The present paper shows that concepts from other cultures may challenge taken-for-granted assumptions, received wisdoms, and established conventions. The paper draws on semi-structured interviews with respondents in a number of sites in mainland China. Examination of the various notions of face articulated by respondents suggests possible developments in sociological conceptualizations of face neglected in previous discussion. It is shown that an individual’s face generation and outcome may arise out of another individual’s status or behavior. An individual’s action may give rise to a collective face outcome and a collective’s circumstances may have impact on an individual’s face state. Additionally, it is shown that face itself may become an object of self-conscious deliberation and construction. -
Modelling Communities and Populations: an Introduction to Computational Social Science
STUDIA METODOLOGICZNE NR 39 • 2019, 123–152 DOI: 10.14746/sm.2019.39.5 Andrzej Jarynowski, Michał B. Paradowski, Andrzej Buda Modelling communities and populations: An introduction to computational social science Abstract. In sociology, interest in modelling has not yet become widespread. However, the methodology has been gaining increased attention in parallel with its growing popularity in economics and other social sciences, notably psychology and political science, and the growing volume of social data being measured and collected. In this paper, we present representative computational methodologies from both data-driven (such as “black box”) and rule-based (such as “per analogy”) approaches. We show how to build simple models, and discuss both the greatest successes and the major limitations of modelling societies. We claim that the end goal of computational tools in sociology is providing meaningful analyses and calculations in order to allow making causal statements in sociological ex- planation and support decisions of great importance for society. Keywords: computational social science, mathematical modelling, sociophysics, quantita- tive sociology, computer simulations, agent-based models, social network analysis, natural language processing, linguistics. 1. One model of society, but many definitions Social reality has been a fascinating area for mathematical description for a long time. Initially, many mathematical models of social phenomena resulted in simplifications of low application value. However, with their grow- ing validity (in part due to constantly increasing computing power allowing for increased multidimensionality), they have slowly begun to be applied in prediction and forecasting (social engineering), given that the most interesting feature of social science research subjects – people, organisations, or societies – is their complexity, usually based on non-linear interactions. -
How Can Cultural Sociology Help Us Understand Contemporary Chinese Society? Amy Tsang* and Michèle Lamont
Tsang and Lamont The Journal of Chinese Sociology (2018) 5:15 The Journal of https://doi.org/10.1186/s40711-018-0086-5 Chinese Sociology REVIEW Open Access How can cultural sociology help us understand contemporary Chinese society? Amy Tsang* and Michèle Lamont * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract Department of Sociology, Harvard University, 33 Kirkland Street, In this editorial for the Thematic Series: Cultural Sociology and China, we discuss the Cambridge, MA 02138, USA global growth of cultural sociology as a sociological sub-discipline, its current state and future prospects in mainland China, and the aims of this special issue in promoting the subfield’s further growth domestically in China. Keywords: Cultural sociology, China, Sociology of knowledge Introduction In this editorial for the Thematic Series: Cultural Sociology and China, we discuss the global rise of cultural sociology as a sociological sub-discipline, its current state and fu- ture prospects in mainland China, and the aims of this special issue in promoting the subfield’s further growth domestically in China. The global rise of cultural sociology For the last 40 years, American sociology has been transformed from the inside by the rapid growth of the study of culture, which includes (in short) both the study of meaning-making, identity, myths and narratives (cultural sociology) and the study of cultural institutions and cultural production, diffusion, and reception (the sociology of culture). We will refer to this field as “cultural sociology” for convenience. From a relatively obscure, small, and marginal research area in the1970s and early 1980s, this field became central to American sociology a short decade later. -
Curriculum Vitae
July 2015 MARTIN KING WHYTE VITAE Address: Dept. of Sociology Harvard University 480 William James Hall Cambridge, MA 02138 (617) 495-9853 FAX (617) 496-5794 [email protected] website: scholar.harvard.edu/martinwhyte/home Education: B.A., Cornell University, 1964. Major-physics; minor-Russian. Honors: Cum Laude, Phi Eta Sigma, Phi Beta Kappa. University of Michigan Study Tour of the USSR, 1963. M.A., Harvard University, 1966, Russian Area Studies. Ph.D., Harvard University, 1971, Sociology. Thesis Title: "Small Groups and Political Rituals in Communist China." Teaching Experience: John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and Sociology, Emeritus, 2015- John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and Sociology, 2013-15 Professor of Sociology, Harvard University, 2000-13 Visiting Professor, University of Aveiro, Portugal, Spring 2002 Professor of Sociology and International Affairs, George Washington University, 1994-2000. Professor of Sociology, University of Michigan, 1981-94. Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Michigan, 1976-81. Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Michigan, 1970-76. Lecturer, Boston University, 1968 (course on Soviet society). Teaching and Research Interests: Comparative sociology, particularly the comparative institutional development of China and the former Soviet Union; comparative family systems and family change; the American family; gender roles in comparative context; inequality and stratification; bureaucracy; the sociology of development, the sociology of post-communist -
Who Is Doing Computational Social Science? Trends in Big Data Research
A SAGE White Paper Who Is Doing Computational Social Science? Trends in Big Data Research Katie Metzler Publisher for SAGE Research Methods, SAGE Publishing David A. Kim Stanford University, Department of Emergency Medicine Nick Allum Professor of Sociology and Research Methodology, University of Essex Angella Denman University of Essex www.sagepublishing.com Contents Overview ........................................................................................................................1 What Have We Learned About Those Doing Big Data Research? .....................................1 What Have We Learned About Those Who Want to Engage in Big Data Research in the Future? ...................................................................................1 What Have We Learned About Those Teaching Research Methods? .................................2 Methodology .................................................................................................................2 Analysis .........................................................................................................................2 Challenges Facing Big Data Researchers in the Social Sciences ....................................11 Challenges Facing Educators ............................................................................................16 Barriers to Entry ................................................................................................................16 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................17 -
Download Article (PDF)
Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, volume 96 International Conference on Humanities Science, Management and Education Technology (HSMET 2017) The Development and Evolution of Marxist Sociology since the Reconstruction of Chinese Sociology Mingbo Zhang Marxism School, Sichuan University,Chengdu,Sichuan,610207,China Abstract Sinicized Marxist sociology is the product of combining Marxism with Chinese practice and it is a sociological theory with Chinese characteristics. Since the reconstruction of sociology, in the great practice of socialism with Chinese characteristics, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping have vigorously pushed forward the process of Marxist sociology in China. They have combined with the development of China and have thoroughly studied the stability of Chinese reform and development using Marxist standpoint, viewpoint and method and gradually formed a Marxist sociology with Chinese characteristics. Keywords: sociology, reconstruction, Marxist Sociology 1 Introduction Marx is not only a philosopher, but also a sociologist, he and Durkheim and Weber as one of the three classical sociologies, Marx pioneered Marxist sociology and Durkheim's empirical sociology, Weber's Humanities and Social Sciences Constitute the three main schools of sociology. Since the introduction of Marxism in China, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping have all tried to combine the Marxist theory with the practice of Chinese revolution, construction and reform and push forward the process of Marxism in China. The process of Marxism sinicization is also the process of sinicization of Marxist sociology. It is with the practice of Chinese revolution, construction and Copyright © 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press. -
Sociology and Anthropology in the People's Republic of China
Sociology and Anthropology in the People’s Republic of China Martin Whyte & Burton Pasternak Sociology and anthropology were taught in China as early as 1914 and, by 1949, most major univer sities had established sociology departments. The scope of sociology was broad; it often embraced cultural anthropology, demography, and even social work, in addition to sociology. In a few places anthropology moved toward departmental status in its own right, but the American approach - which attempts to integrate cultural anthropology, linguistics, archaeology, and physical antropology - never really took root in China. This is because the main intellectual inspiration for sociology- anthropology in China came from British social anthropology and from the Chicago school of American sociology. Most priminent scholars did some graduate work abroad, and those who identified with anthropology mainly associated themselves with the British structure-functional tradition (social anthropology). As a result, the line between sociology and anthropology was never a sharp one in China. This is still the case in China today, although the reasons may not be quite the same, as we will see shortly. After 1949 sociology and anthropology fell on hard times. Any science of society of culture that deviated from, or challenged, Marxist-Leninist doctrine was considered a threat - the same atti tude prevailed in Stalin's Russia at the time, where sociology was termed a "bourgeois pseudo science". Chinese sociologists and anthropologists, considered tainted by Western modes of thought, were suspect. In 1952, during the educational re organization campaigns, therefore, sociology was officially proscribed as a discipline; university departments were closed and formal instruction in both sociology and anthropology came to an abrupt 289 end. -
Chinese Anthropology and Its Domestication Projects: Dewesternization, Bentuhua and Overseas Ethnography.Social Anthropology, 24(4), Pp
Liang, H. (2016) Chinese anthropology and its domestication projects: Dewesternization, Bentuhua and overseas ethnography.Social Anthropology, 24(4), pp. 462-475. (doi:10.1111/1469-8676.12307) This is the author’s final accepted version. There may be differences between this version and the published version. You are advised to consult the publisher’s version if you wish to cite from it. http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/115799/ Deposited on: 19 February 2016 Enlighten – Research publications by members of the University of Glasgow http://eprints.gla.ac.uk Chinese Anthropology and its Domestication Projects: Dewesternization, Bentuhua and Overseas Ethnography Introduction In the 1960s, Brazilian scholar Darcy Ribeiro employed the term “antropologadoros” (those who were trained as an anthropologist but at the same time remain as part of the Other and/or as the object of study) to emphasize a difference between anthropologists in what was called the First and Third Worlds. Ribeiro’s term provide an interesting point of departure toward understanding the predica- ments of anthropology in peripheral countries and their politics of affiliation. One of the main is- sues at stake is the invisibility of other anthropologies. Being aware of the predicaments, anthropol- ogists working in non-hegemonic centers have been trying to re-imagine and re-cofigurate the disci- pline with various experiments such as ‘indigenous’ anthropology or “non-Western” anthropology (Fahim and Helmer 1980), ‘anthropologies of the South’ (Krotz 1997, Quinlan 2000), ‘peripheral anthropologies’ (de Oliveira 1999), or ‘world anthropologies’ (Restrepo and Escobar 2005, Ribeiro and Escobar 2006). This article is to examine the aspirations and experiments in domesticating an- thropology in China by looking at several moments of its development. -
Predictive Analytics of Social Networks
Predictive Analytics of Social Networks A Survey of Tasks and Techniques Ming Yang, William H. Hsu, Surya Teja Kallumadi Kansas State University Abstract In this article we survey the general problem of analyzing a social network in order to make predictions about its behavior, content, or the systems and phenomena that generated it. First, we begin by defining five basic tasks that can be performed using social networks: (1) link prediction; (2) pathway and community formation; (3) recommendation and decision support; (4) risk analysis, and (5) planning, especially intervention planning based on causal analysis. Next, we discuss frameworks for using predictive analytics, availability of annotation, text associated with (or produced within) a social network, information propagation history (e.g., upvotes and shares), trust and reputation data. Meanwhile, we also review challenges such as imbalanced and partial data, concept drift especially as it manifests within social media, and the need for active learning, online learning, and transfer learning. We then discuss general methodologies for predictive analytics, involving network topology and dynamics, heterogeneous information network analysis, stochastic simulation, and topic modeling using the abovementioned text corpora. We continue by describing applications such as predicting “who will follow whom?” in a social network, making entity-to-entity recommendations (person-to-person, business-to-business aka B2B, consumer-to-business aka C2B, or business-to-consumer aka B2C), and analyzing big data (especially transactional data) for customer relationship management (CRM) applications. Finally, we examine a few specific recommender systems and systems for interaction discovery, as part of brief case studies. 1. Introduction: Prediction in Social Networks Social networks provide a way to anticipate, build, and make use of links, by representating relationships and propagation of phenomena between pairs of entities that can be extended to large-scale dynamical systems. -
A Conceptual Framework for the Modelling and Simulation of Social Systems
DYNA ISSN: 0012-7353 ISSN: 2346-2183 Universidad Nacional de Colombia A conceptual framework for the modelling and simulation of social systems Awad, Gabriel; Alvarez, Hernán A conceptual framework for the modelling and simulation of social systems DYNA, vol. 87, no. 212, 2020 Universidad Nacional de Colombia Available in: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=49663642023 DOI: 10.15446/dyna.v87n212.83266 PDF generated from XML JATS4R by Redalyc Project academic non-profit, developed under the open access initiative Artículos A conceptual framework for the modelling and simulation of social systems Un marco conceptual para el modelado y la simulación de sistemas sociales Gabriel Awad a [email protected] Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Colombia Hernán Alvarez b [email protected] Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Colombia Abstract: is paper presents a conceptual framework for the modelling and simulation of properties, interactions and processes of social systems based on computational templates using discrete event system specification (DEVS) formalism and OMG DYNA, vol. 87, no. 212, 2020 Systems Modelling Language (SysML) diagrams. No antecedents of this combination Universidad Nacional de Colombia were found in the literature, and so this is one of the contributions of this paper. Received: 30 October 2019 Additionally, this article explains how the principles and rules of SysML can be applied Revised document received: 24 January to the analysis of social systems. An example of the proposed framework based on a basic 2020 Agent_Zero model is shown. e conceptual framework was built based on a critical Accepted: 10 February 2020 literature review, and included new additional elements to create a complete but simple DOI: 10.15446/dyna.v87n212.83266 conceptual framework.