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Declines in Aggregate Turkish Fertility Also in the Near Future to Come

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Declines in Aggregate Turkish Fertility Also in the Near Future to Come HACETTEPE UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF POPULATION STUDIES Economic and Social Demography Program FERTILITY DECLINE IN TURKEY FROM THE 1980s ONWARDS: PATTERNS BY MAIN LANGUAGE GROUPS SUTAY YAVUZ Dissertation Submitted In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy In Economic and Social Demography ANKARA, FEBRUARY 2008 HACETTEPE UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF POPULATION STUDIES Economic and Social Demography Program FERTILITY DECLINE IN TURKEY FROM THE 1980s ONWARDS: PATTERNS BY MAIN LANGUAGE GROUPS Supervisor Assoc. Prof. TURGAY ÜNALAN Assoc. Prof. GUNNAR ANDERSSON ANKARA, FEBRUARY 2008 ACCEPTANCE AND APPROVAL This is to certify that we have read and examined this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economic and Social Demography. Examining Committee Members Member (Supervisor): ………………………………………… Assoc. Prof. Dr. Turgay Ünalan, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies Member (Chair): ……………………………………………… Prof. Dr. Ahmet İçduygu, Koç University, College of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Department of International Relations Member: ……………………………………………………… Assoc. Prof. Dr. Banu Ergöçmen, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies Member: ……………………………………………………… Assoc. Prof. Dr. İsmet Koç, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies Member: ……………………………………………………… Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ayşe Gündüz-Hoşgör, Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Art and Sciences, Department of Sociology This thesis has been accepted by the above-signed members of the Committee and has been confirmed by the Administrative Board of the Institute of Population Studies, Hacettepe University Date: ……………………. Prof. Dr. Sabahat Tezcan Director i ABSTRACT Turkey entered into the last phase of its demographic transition since the 1980s, with a wide regional disparity ranging from east to west. The purpose of this thesis is to examine recent fertility decline and differentials by main language groups in Turkey from a birth order perspective. The study aims to identify different groups in the fertility decline process: the pioneers and the laggards. The empirical part of the study is based on recent approaches and methods of causal analysis and has exploited information provided by the latest ‘Turkey Demographic and Health Survey-2003 (TDHS-2003)’. The analysis has shown that the propensity for first time motherhood has been declining since the 1980s. However, the duration between first marriage and first birth did not notably change. The period effects in the quantum and tempo of fertility are clearly visible at the second and higher birth orders. There has already been a substantial decline in the transition to third and fourth births and the postponement has begun to emerge in the transition from first to second birth as well. Parity progression intensities of Turkish speaking mothers are lower than Kurdish speaking mothers which implies that the fertility decline started much later for the latter group. The study points out important distinctions according to different groups of women in the contemporary fertility decline. Highly educated Turkish speaking women appear to be pioneers of very low fertility behavior, whereas Kurdish speaking women who don’t know Turkish constitutes the laggards in the fertility transition. A combination of individual socioeconomic and socio-cultural factors is necessary but not sufficient to explain the fertility decline process and differential fertility behavior between the two mother tongue groups in Turkey. The study suggests that the fertility transition in Turkey can be attributed to both structural changes in society and a diffusion process of modern parity-specific fertility limitation, via the Turkish language. ii ÖZET Türkiye 1980’lerden sonra, doğu batı doğrultusundaki büyük farklılıklar devam etmekle birlikte, doğurganlık geçişinin son aşamasına girmiştir. Bu tezin amacı Türkiye’de ana dil gruplarına göre doğurganlıkta yakın zaman içinde gerçekleşen azalma ve farklılıkları doğum sırası yaklaşımı ile incelemektir. Çalışma, doğurganlığın düşüş sürecine öncülük eden ve bu süreçte geride kalan farklı grupları belirlemeyi hedeflemektedir. Çalışmanın ampirik bölümünde en güncel nedensellik araştırması yaklaşım ve yöntemleri, ‘2003 Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması (TNSA-2003)’ verisine uygulanmıştır. Analiz, 1980’lerden beri ilk defa anne olma hızının azalmakta olduğunu göstermiştir. Buna karşın, ilk evlenme ve ilk doğum arasındaki sürede önemli bir değişim gerçekleşmemiştir. Doğurganlığın kuatum ve tempo boyutları üzerinde dönem etkileri ikinci ve daha üst sıralardaki doğumlarda açık bir biçimde gözlenmektedir. Üçüncü ve dördüncü doğumlara geçiş hızları önemli derecede azalırken, ilk doğumdan ikinci doğuma geçiş süresi uzamaktadır. Türkçe konuşan annelerin bir sonraki doğuma geçiş hızları Kürtçe konuşan annelere göre daha düşüktür. Bu durum, doğurganlığın düşmesinin ikinci grupta çok daha sonra başladığı anlamına gelmektedir. Çalışma yakın zamandaki doğurganlığın düşmesinde önemli derecede farklılık gösteren grupları işaret etmektedir. Yüksek eğitimli Türkçe konuşan kadınlar düşük düzey doğurganlık davranışının öncüleri olarak görülürken, Kürtçe konuşan ve Türkçe bilmeyen kadınlar doğurganlık geçişinde geride kalan grubu teşkil etmektedirler. Türkiye’deki doğurganlığın düşmesi ve ana dil gruplarına göre farklılıkların açıklanmasında bireylerin sosyoekonomik ve sosyokültürel özelliklerinin bileşenlerinin incelenmesi gerekli fakat yetersiz bir yaklaşım olacaktır. Türkiye’de doğurganlık geçişinin açıklanmasında hem yapısal değişimlerin etkisi hem de doğum sayısına bağlı doğurganlığı sınırlama davranışının Türkçe vasıtasıyla yayılmasının etkisi göz önünde tutulmalıdır. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all those who gave me the possibility to complete this study. There are many people who contributed to my work at different stages with their support, patience and understanding, all of which made the outcome worthwhile. At first, I want to thank to Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies (HUIPS) for giving me the opportunity to commence and finish this thesis. My first encounter with the HUIPS goes back to summer of 1998 when I had the chance to join the research group of the ‘1998 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey’ (TDHS-1998) project. After having a three-week intensive training course, I worked nearly two months as a ‘field editor’ in the eastern region of Turkey. This first fieldwork experience was so exciting and stimulating that I decided to follow a career as an academician; specifically, a demographer. The next year, I registered in the masters program of the institute and start to work as a research assistant. Having completed the M.A. program in mid-2002, I decided to enroll in the doctoral program at HUIPS. I would like to express my gratitude to all the lecturers at HUIPS for my initial training in demography. Besides taking courses, I took part in different survey projects between 2000 and 2005. I had the chance to take part in the ‘2003 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey’ (TDHS-2003) project from beginning to end. During its fieldwork, I worked as a ‘field supervisor’ in the southern region of Turkey. The work was a very exciting experience because I was aware that I could use the data for my PhD dissertation. By the time I began the doctoral program at HUIPS, one of my colleagues, Elif Kurtuluş Yiğit, drew my attention to the interesting courses offered by the ‘International Max Planck Research School for Demography (IMPRSD)’ in Rostock,Germany. I applied to this school three times—for the 2002/2003, 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 winter semesters—and each time my applications were accepted. Starting from September 2005, I was accepted as a PhD student at the iv ‘Laboratory of Contemporary European Fertility and Family Dynamics’ (Division 2), where I completed this dissertation. My gratitude goes to two directors here. First, I owe my thanks to Proff. Dr. Sabahat Tezcan, director of HUIPS, for allowing me to use official vacations during the first two winter semesters. Second, I give my thankfullness to Proff. Dr. Jan Hoem, director of ‘Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)’, for accepting me into the winter schools and, later, to Division 2. During the winter semesters, I took several courses and seminars on recent developments in demopraphy in Rostock and Stockholm. Students were often required to write a mini-project to complete their courses at IMPRSD. The time and effort I spent on finishing mini-projects became the driving force of my academic progress. While producing these papers, I actually developed the core structure of the dissertation. The material I produced also helped me to give several presentations, publish two working papers and one peer-reviewed research article. From the beginning of my first stay in MPIDR, I was fortunate to meet and work with distinguished demographers and friends. At first, I should mention my supervisor and friend Assoc. Proff. Dr. Gunnar Andersson. I find myself one of the luckiest PhD students in the institute for taking his courses and for his supervision. I am deeply indebted to Gunnar for his stimulating suggestions, insightful comments, editorial help, positive thinking and encouragement throughout the time I spent researching and writing this thesis. My appreciation also goes to Proff. Dr. Jan Hoem, Gerda Ruth Neyer, Michaela Kreyenfeld and
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