Research 研究报告

SHANGHAI Retail

market report

上海商铺报告

Knight Frank 萊坊

Q3 2013 retail 2013 年第三季度 商铺

Q 3 2013 retail Quarterly

Highlights

New supply reached Outlook In the fourth quarter, 513,000 sqm in the third quarter,

three times higher than the retail rents are Looking forward, the Shanghai previous quarter and hit a new high. retail market is set to become estimated to remain New malls included the relatively quiet after experiencing a soft-opened Jing’an Kerry Centre stable and the vacancy supply surge in the third quarter. In Phase Two (73,000 sqm) and the prime retail areas, besides Lane rate is set to increase iapm Mall (120,000 sqm) as well as Crawford in Shanghai Times Square, the officially-opened slightly. In the coming no new shopping malls are set to (320,000 sqm). open in the fourth quarter. 12 months, retail rents However, in the coming 12 months, Retail rents in Shanghai started to will remain on an new retail malls scheduled for rise notably again in the third completion include River Mall upward trend with an quarter after remaining almost Phase Two (260,000 sqm), Hopson unchanged in the first two quarters annual growth rate of International Plaza (166,000 sqm) of 2013. In the third quarter, and Golden Hongqiao International ground-floor retail rents in prime approximately 10%. Centre (86,000 sqm). The first outlet areas increased 2.7% quarter on in Pudong, Florentia Village, is set quarter to RMB57.1 per sqm per to open in the third quarter of 2014. day. In 2013, most new supply is With a huge amount of local concentrated in prime areas, whilst residents and maturing ancillary more new retail malls will be facilities, large-scale shopping malls launched in emerging areas in 2014. in non-prime retail areas are under Meanwhile, an increasing number rapid development and witness fast of retailers continue to launch their rental growth. According to Knight stores in Shanghai, demonstrating Frank’s statistics, ground-floor rents their sustained confidence in in non-prime retail areas increased consumer demand. The fourth by 4.1% quarter on quarter, 1.4 Apple Store in Shanghai will open percentage points higher than that in iapm Mall this October. The first in prime retail areas. H.E. by Mango flagship store in will open in Jing’an Kerry In the third quarter, the retail Centre. In the fourth quarter, retail property investment market rents are estimated to remain remained stable, with a number of stable and the vacancy rate is set to deals under negotiation and one increase slightly. In the coming 12 shopping mall acquisition deal months, retail rents will remain on recorded. Touch Mall in Xuhui an upward trend with an annual District was acquired by Harvest growth rate of approximately 10%. Real Estate Investments (HREI) for a total consideration of RMB1.7 billion.

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Supply and Demand

The officially-opened Due to the opening of large shopping shopping mall in the downtown, a malls, new shopping mall supply mid to upper-end shopping centre Global Harbor has replaced reached 513,000 sqm in the third Global Harbor was officially opened in to quarter, three times higher than the Putuo District with an occupancy rate become the largest previous quarter and hit a new high. of 90%. The total retail GFA of Global New malls included the soft-opened Harbor is approximately 320,000 sqm shopping mall in Shanghai. Jing’an Kerry Centre Phase Two and existing tenants include luxury (73,000 sqm) and iapm Mall (120,000 brands such as Burberry, Chanel and sqm) as well as the officially-opened Dior as well as mid-priced brands Global Harbor (320,000 sqm). such as Novo, Muji, H&M, Gap, Uniqlo Developed by Kerry Properties, and C&A. Level four of Global Haror is Jing’an Kerry Centre Phase Two had its public cultural space featuring soft opening this July. The mixed-use museum, art gallery and cultural project comprises office towers, display. Global Harbor has replaced serviced apartments, hotel and retail Super Brand Mall to become the space. With a total retail gross floor largest shopping mall in Shanghai. area (GFA) of 73,000 sqm, Jing’an Kerry Centre Phase Two is the largest In the third quarter, international shopping mall project in the Nanjing retailers continued to expand in

West Road retail area. Currently, Shanghai. Zara Home landed its first confirmed apparel tenants include store in Nanjing West Road in Jing’an Paul Smith, Michael Kors, Emporio District. Global stylish fashion and art Armani and Hugo Boss, while Food concept store 10 Corso Como opened and Beverage (F&B) tenants include its first boutique store in Wheelock Element Fresh, Simply Thai, Jade Square. Mulberry opened its fourth Garden and Din Tai Fung. Two store in China in iapm Mall, which is supermarkets including Ole and Life Mulberry’s largest flagship store in by City Shop are situated in the China. The world’s largest Uniqlo store basement. In the Huaihai Middle Road with a retail floor area of over 8,000 retail area, iapm Mall started trial sqm opened in Shanghai on 30 operation on 5 August. Developed by September. As the largest Ikea store in Sun Hung Kai Properties, the project Asia, Ikea Baoshan Store was launched has two Grade-A office buildings, on 15 August, boasting a retail floor luxury serviced apartments and the area of 55,032 sqm. On 1 August, . With a retail GFA of H&M launched its first menswear 120,000 sqm, iapm Mall has a number store in China together with its first of internationally renowned brands, MONKI store in Shanghai in Global including Hermès, Prada and Gucci Harbor. and will feature Shanghai’s first Gucci Café. An IMAX Theatre is situated in Palace Cinema on levels five and six. Besides the two soft-opened luxury

3 Q3 2013 shanghai retail Quarterly

Rent

Some non-prime Shanghai ground-floor retail rents in core areas (Q1 2006 - Q3 2013) shopping malls recorded RMB/sqm net/day quarter-on-quarter growth 60 of over 5% in rents. 55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Knight Frank Research

Retail rents in Shanghai started to rise With a huge amount of local residents again in the third quarter after and ancillary facilities getting mature, remaining almost unchanged in the first large-scale shopping malls in two quarters of 2013. In the third non-prime retail areas are in rapid quarter, ground-floor retail rents in development and witness fast-paced prime areas increased 2.7% quarter on rental growth. According to Knight quarter to RMB57.1 per sqm per day. Frank’s statistics, ground floor rent in Ground-floor shopping mall rents non-prime retail areas increased by increased 2.4%, whilst street-shop rents 4.1% quarter on quarter, 1.4 increased 3.1% compared with the percentage points higher than that in previous quarter. F&B retailers are prime retail areas. Some non-prime actively seeking for new retail space in shopping malls including Kerry Shanghai. In September, Sun Life Food Parkside, Life Hub@Jinqiao, Life Court leased 5,000 retail space in Citic Hub@Daning and Super Ocean Sky Plaza Shenhong on Sichuan North Road Mall recorded quarter-on-quarter at RMB4 per sq m per day. Influenced growth of over 5% in rents. by the new supply, the prime retail vacancy rate went up slightly by 0.3 percentage point to 8.8% in the third quarter.

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INVESTMENT

In July, Touch Mall in Xuhui In the third quarter, the retail property announced that French sporting investment market remained stable, goods retailer Decathlon acquired District was acquired by with a number of deals under Sunland Plot D4-4 for a total Harvest Real Estate negotiation and one shopping mall consideration of RMB600 million to

Investments for a total acquisition deal recorded. In July, build up their headquarters. The Touch Mall in was acquired property is situated to a consideration of RMB1.7 acquired by Harvest Real Estate green park to the north, Sunland billion or a unit price of Investments (HREI) for a total International Project D4-5 to the east,

RMB30,000 per sqm. consideration of RMB1.7 billion or a Zhouhai Road to the south and unit price of RMB30,000 per sqm. Lansong Road to the west. Currently, Located in Xuhui Binjiang Area, Touch Decathlon owns six retail stores in

Mall opened on 1 June 2013. China and the proportion of Developed by Cha Tai Group, Touch self-owned stores will increase to one

Mall has a total retail GFA of 55,000 sq third in the future. Boosted by the m with committed tenants including development of Shanghai Pilot Free Uniqlo, Ochirly and Westa Cinema. Trade Zone, Sunland Waigaoqiao is HREI is a real estate fund formed by positioned as another international Harvest Fund Management and community after the Gubei, Green Britain-based Grosvenor Fund City and Lianyang communities and is Management. As a joint venture, HREI scheduled for completion in 2017. aims to invest in real estate markets in The Decathlon headquarters project is China. This transaction marks HREI’s located in Sunland International Area first investment in China. of Sunland Commercial and Business Zone with at least ten corporate Some retailers are optimistic about headquarters to move in. The whole the Shanghai market, transforming Sunland Commercial and Business from pure leasing strategy to buying Zone will have 750,000 sqm of urban properties for self-use. In August, commercial complex. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd

5 Q3 2013 shanghai retail Quarterly

Selected retail leasing transactions, Q3 2013

Area Rent District Building Floor Trade (sq m) (RMB/sq m/day) Basement Personal Huangpu Richgate 1st floor 209 7.4 care unit

Basement Citic Plaza Hongkou 1st-2nd F&B 5,000 4.0 Shenhong floors units

Pudong Super Brand Mall Level 1 unit Apparel 1,000 25.0

Basement Jing’an Park Place 2nd floor F&B 200 20.0 unit

Levels 1-4 Huangpu Plaza 336 Apparel 5,830 15.7 units

Source: Knight Frank Research

Selected retail sales transactions, Q3 2013

Area Total price Price District Building Floor (sq m) (RMB million) (RMB/sq m)

Xuhui The Hysun Level 1 unit 483.0 40.1 82,976

Chamtime Zhabei Corporate Level 1 unit 433.5 29.2 67,277 Avenue

Putuo Tianhui Plaza Level 1 unit 150.4 10.2 67,826

Citic Rainbow Hongkou Level 1 unit 155.7 6.7 43,273 Garden

Powerlong City Pudong Level 1 unit 175.2 6.9 39,392 Plaza

Source: Knight Frank Research / Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre

6 2013年第三季度 KnightFrank.com.cn上海商铺 季刊

焦点

第三季度上海新开商场面积达到 未来展望 零售租金将在第四季度保持

平方米，为前一季度的近三倍， 513,000 平稳，空置率略有升高，未 第四季度市场供应趋缓，租金保持平 季度供应达到历史峰值。新开商场包 稳。展望未来，供应方面，上海零售市 来一年内，零售租金将保持 括仍在试营业期的静安嘉里中心二期 场在经历了第三季度的供应高峰以后 （73,000 平方米）和环贸 iapm 升势，预计年增幅约在10% 将回归平静，第四季度 除了大上海时代 （120,000 平方米），以及已经正式开 左右。 广场的连卡佛百货试营业外，各主要商 业的月星环球港（320,000 平方米）。 圈未见有新商场计划落成。而在未来 12

个月内，即将开业的新商场项目包括世 零售租金在连续维稳两个季度后，于 博源二期（260,000 平方米）、合生国 第三季度出现明显增长。第三季度， 际广场（166,000 平方米）和金虹桥国 上海主要商圈首层租金环比增长 2.7% 际中心（86,000 平方米）。浦东首家奥 至每天每平方米人民币 57.1 元。 特莱斯——佛罗伦萨小镇也计划于明

年第三季度开业。与 年集中在核 随着近年来人口的大量导入，区域内 2013 配套设施逐步成熟，非核心商圈内大 心区域的新供应相比较，2014 年的新 型购物中心的发展迅猛，租金也随之 开商场将主要集中在非核心区域。零售 稳步提高。据莱坊统计，第三季度， 商方面，未来选址上海开店的零售商有 非核心商圈首层租金的环比增速为 增无减，显示出对零售需求的信心。上

4.1%，比核心商圈首层租金的环比增 海第四家苹果店（Apple Store）已选址

速高出了 1.4 个百分点。 在淮海中路的环贸 iapm 商场，预计将 在今年 10 月份开业。Mango 旗下男装 第三季度，零售物业投资市场保持稳 品牌系列 H.E.by MANGO 也即将登陆 定，数宗交易在积极谈判中，录得一 中国，在上海静安嘉里中心开设首家旗 宗购物中心整栋成交案例。位于徐汇 舰店。零售租金将在第四季度保持平 区的正大乐城购物中心被嘉实房地产 稳，空置率略有升高，未来一年内，零 投资公司（简称“嘉实地产”）收购， 售租金将保持升势，预计年增幅约在

总价为人民币 17 亿元。 10%左右。

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供应与需求

正式开业的月星环球港取代上 由于有大体量的新商场开业，第三季度 除了上述两家在市中心试营业的高端 海正大广场，成为上海规模最 上海新开商场面积达到 513,000平方 购物中心，另有一家中高端购物中心 米，为前一季度的近三倍，季度供应达 ——月星环球港在普陀区正式开业，入 大的购物中心。 到历史峰值。新开商场包括仍在试营业 住率达到90%左右。月星环球港商业总

期的静安嘉里中心二期（73,000平方 面积约在320,000平方米左右，入驻商

米）和环贸iapm（120,000平方米）， 户不仅有奢侈品牌巴宝莉（Burberry）, 以及已经正式开业的月星环球港 香奈尔（Chanel）和迪奥（Dior）等，

（320,000平方米）。静安嘉里中心二 还包括价格亲民的品牌NOVO、无印良 期由嘉里集团开发，于七月份开始试营 品、海恩斯莫里斯（H&M）、盖普（GAP）、 业，包括办公楼、酒店式公寓、酒店及 优衣库（Uniqlo）、西雅衣家（C&A） 商场等，其中商业体量约为73,000平方 等，在四楼设有文化区，包括博物馆、 米，成为南京西路商圈体量最大的购物 美术馆和文化展区。此外，月星环球港 中心项目。目前确认入驻的服饰类商户 取代上海正大广场，成为上海规模最大

有保罗史密斯（Paul Smith）、迈克 的购物中心。

高仕（ Michael Kors）、安普里奥•阿 玛尼（Emporio Armani）、雨果博斯 国际零售商继续在上海扩展店面。飒拉 （Hugo Boss），餐饮类商户包括新元 家饰（Zara Home）上海首家门店正式 素（Element Fresh）、天泰（Simply 登陆静安区南京西路。全球生活潮牌名 Thai）、翠园（Jade Garden）、鼎泰 店10 Corso Como的首家精品店在会德 丰（Din Tai Fung）等，地下一楼设有 丰广场开业。玛百莉（Mulberry）在上 两间超市，分别是Ole和Life by City 海环贸iapm购物中心开设中国第四间 Shop。而在淮海中路商圈，环贸iapm 专卖店，这也是该品牌在中国的最大旗 于8月5日开始试营业，由新鸿基地产开 舰店。优衣库(Uniqlo)全球最大旗舰店 发，整个综合性项目包括两栋写字楼、 于9月30日在上海开幕，卖场面积超过

高档酒店式公寓和iapm商场。其中 8,000平方米。宜家(Ikea)宝山店于8月 iapm商场的面积约占120,000平方米， 15日正式开业，宝山商场是目前宜家家 汇集了爱马仕（Hermès）、普拉达 居在亚洲开设的最大商场，营业面积达 （Prada） 以及古驰（ Gucci）等多个 55,032平方米。海恩斯莫里斯（H&M） 国际奢侈时尚品牌，还将开设上海第一 中国首家男装门店及旗下MONKI上海

间古驰（Gucci）咖啡店。在商场5楼和 首家店选址上海月星环球港，于8月1 6楼的百丽宫影城中配备了IMAX影院。 日开业。

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租金

第三季度，多家位于非核心商 上海主要商圈首层租金，2006年第一季度至2013年第三季度 圈的购物中心租金均录得环比 人民币/平方米净面积/天 5%左右的增长。 60

55

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45

40

35

30

25

20 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

数据来源：莱坊研究部

零售租金在连续维稳两个季度后，于第 随着近年来人口的大量导入，区域内配 三季度出现明显增长。第三季度，上海 套设施逐步成熟，非核心商圈内大型购

主要商圈首层租金环比增长2.7%至每 物中心的发展迅猛，租金也随之稳步提 天每平方米人民币57.1元。其中，购物 高。据莱坊统计，第三季度，非核心商 中心首层租金环比增长2.4%，而街铺租 圈首层租金的环比增速为4.1%，比核心 金环比增长3.1%。餐饮品牌亦积极在上 商圈首层租金的环比增速高出了1.4个

海寻求铺面。今年9月份，阳光小镇美 百分点。其中，包括浦东嘉里城、金桥 食广场在位于四川北路的中信泰富申 国际商业广场、大宁国际商业广场和仲

虹广场租赁了5,000平方米的店面，租 盛世界商城在内的多家位于非核心商 金约在每平方米每天人民币4元左右。 圈的购物中心，第三季度的租金均录得 上海优质商场空置率的变动不大，受新 环比5%左右的增长。 供应的影响，第三季度空置率环比略升

0.3个百分点至8.8%。

9 2013年第三季度 上海商铺 季刊

投资

七月份，位于徐汇区的正大乐城 第三季度，零售物业投资市场保持稳 另外，也有部分零售商看好上海市 购物中心被嘉实房地产投资公司 定，数宗交易在积极谈判中，录得一 场，由纯租赁策略转向买地自建的方 宗购物中心整栋成交案例。7 月份， 式。今年 8 月，上海外高桥保税区开 （简称“嘉实地产”）收购，总价 位于徐汇区的正大乐城购物中心被 发股份有限公司发布公告称法国运 为人民币17亿元，折合成交均价 嘉实房地产投资公司（简称“嘉实地 动品牌迪卡侬(Decathlon)将斥资人

约为每平方米30,000元。 产”）收购，总价为人民币 17 亿元， 民币 6 亿元在森兰 D4-4 地块建设总

折合成交均价约为每平方米 30,000 部项目。地块北临绿地、东临 D4-5 元。位于徐汇滨江区域的购物中心正 森兰国际项目、南临洲海路、西临兰

大乐城于 6 月 1 日开始营业，由正 嵩路。目前，迪卡侬在全国范围内拥 大集团及绿地集团共同开发，总建筑 有六家自建商场，而未来迪卡侬在中

面积 55,000 平方米，目前入住租户 国的自建商场比例将达到三分之一。 包括优衣库、欧时力和华士达东方影 在自贸区概念的推动下，森兰外高桥 城。嘉实地产是由嘉实基金和高富诺 规划成为继古北、碧云、联洋之后又 基金联合投资成立的房地产投资公 一国际社区，将于 2017 年完成整体 司，作为一支私募地产基金，专注于 开发建设。此次迪卡侬总部项目位于 大中华区的房地产投资。此次收购正 森兰商业商务区中的森兰国际板块， 大乐城是该基金在中国达成的首项 森兰国际板块将迎来至少 10 家企业 交易。 总部入驻，而整个森兰商业商务区总 规划面积为 75 万平方米。

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上海主要商铺租赁成交，2013 年第三季度

面积 租金 区域 项目 楼层 业态 （平方米） (人民币/平方米/天)

黄浦 华府天地 地下一层单元 个人护理 209 7.4

地下一至二层 虹口 中信申虹广场 餐饮 5,000 4.0 单元

浦东 正大广场 一层单元 服饰 1,000 25.0

静安 越洋广场 地下二层单元 餐饮 200 20.0

黄浦 华旭国际大厦 一至四层单元 服饰 5,830 15.7

数据来源：莱坊研究部

上海主要商铺买卖成交，2013 年第三季度

面积 总价 成交价格 区域 项目 楼层 （平方米） (人民币百万元) (人民币/平方米)

徐汇 海珀府邸 一层单元 483.0 40.1 82,976

闸北 长泰企业天地 一层单元 433.5 29.2 67,277

普陀 天汇广场 一层单元 150.4 10.2 67,826

虹口 中信虹港名庭 一层单元 155.7 6.7 43,273

浦东 宝龙城市广场 一层单元 175.2 6.9 39,392

数据来源：莱坊研究部 / 上海房地产交易中心

11 Research 2013年第三季度 研究报告上海商铺 季刊

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