THAILAND's SHAPELESS SOUTHERN INSURGENCY Joseph Chinyong Liow Don Pathan First Published for Lowy Institute for International Policy 2010
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Liow • Pathan • Liow Lowy Institute Paper 30 In the past few years, the dormant Muslim Malay insurgency in southern Thailand has come back to life to the surprise of many. The new generation of nameless insurgents appear intent on shattering the fabric of society and peaceful coexistence Lowy Institute Paper 30 that has long existed between the region’s Malay majority and their non-Malay counterparts. Through unprecedented fi eldwork, the authors provide the deepest and most up-to-date analysis of the GHOSTS CONFRONTING insurgency and problems the Thai Government faces in dealing with it. Joseph Chinyong Liow is Associate Professor and Associate Dean at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. His research interests are in Muslim politics and identity in Southeast Asia. Don Pathan is senior reporter at The Nation newspaper in Bangkok. He has been covering Southeast Asia since 1994, focusing on international relations, transnational crime, drugs and insurgencies in Burma, and separatist movements in Thailand’s Muslim-majority south. Confronting ghosts THAILAND'S SHAPELESS SOUTHERN ConfrontingINSURGENCY ghosts Joseph Chinyong Liow The Lowy Institute is an independent, non-partisan, THAILAND’S SHAPELESS international policy think tank. Its objective is to 30 Paper Institute Lowy Don Pathan deepen the debate in Australia about international SOUTHERN INSURGENCY policy and to generate new ideas and dialogue on international developments. ISBN 978-1-920681-60-9 www.lowyinstitute.org Joseph Chinyong Liow Don Pathan 9 781920 681609 Cover_LIP30.indd 1 19/3/10 4:22:58 PM Lowy Institute Paper 30 Confronting ghosts THAILAND'S SHAPELESS SOUTHERN INSURGENCY Joseph Chinyong Liow Don Pathan First published for Lowy Institute for International Policy 2010 PO Box 102 Double Bay New South Wales 1360 Australia www.longmedia.com.au [email protected] Tel. (+61 2) 9362 8441 Lowy Institute for International Policy © 2010 Joseph Chinyong Liow is Associate Professor and ABN 40 102 792 174 Associate Dean at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part His research interests are in Muslim politics and identity of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means (including but not limited to electronic, in Southeast Asia. He is the author of Piety and Politics: mechanical, photocopying, or recording), without the prior written permission of the Islamism in Contemporary Malaysia (Oxford University copyright owner. Press, 2009) and Islam, Education, and Reform in Southern Thailand: Tradition and Transformation (ISEAS, 2009). Cover design by Longueville Media/Nina Nielsen His writings have appeared in international journals Typeset by Longueville Media in Esprit Book 10/13 such as Foreign Affairs, Journal of Southeast Asian National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Studies, Journal of Islamic Studies, Third World Quarterly, Author: Liow, Joseph Chinyong, 1972- Australian Journal of International Affairs, Asian Survey, Title: Confronting ghosts : Thailand's shapeless southern insurgency / Joseph Chinyong Asian Security, Commonwealth and Contemporary Politics, Liow, Don Pathan. and Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. Edition: 1st ed. ISBN: 9781920681609 (pbk.) Series: Lowy Institute paper ; 30. Don Pathan is senior reporter at The Nation newspaper Notes: Includes bibliographical references. in Bangkok, Thailand. Mr Pathan has been covering Subjects: Political violence--Thailand, Southern. Southeast Asia since 1994, focusing on international Insurgency--Thailand, Southern. relations, transnational crime, drugs and insurgencies in Thailand, Southern--Social conditions--21st century. Burma, and separatist movements in Thailand’s Muslim- Thailand, Southern--Politics and government--21st century. Thailand, Southern--History--Autonomy and independence movements. majority south. He graduated from the University of Other Authors/Contributors: Pathan, Don. Texas at Austin in 1993 with a BA in History and Middle Lowy Institute for International Policy. Eastern Studies. Dewey Number: 303.6409593 Executive summary The violence that has plagued the predominantly Malay provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala in southern Thailand (not to mention four Malay-speaking districts in the upper southern province of Songkhla) over the past few years has become one of the most closely watched security situations in Southeast Asia. Like Thailand, many other states in the region are still struggling with key nation-building challenges that are potentially prone to involvement by regional and global terrorist groups, posing threats to these countries’ hubs of international engagement and undercutting attempts at regional confidence and community building. The significant and sustained upsurge in violence in southern Thailand in the last few years, across numerous administrations in Bangkok, and the nebulous nature of the insurgency itself, make it a particularly important conflict to understand for those with interests in Thailand and Southeast Asian security and stability and in the evolution of internal conflicts. A decade ago, many hoped that the insurgency in the south of Thailand had melted away. Instead it has come back in a more powerful and threatening manner. This monograph analyses the changing nature of the insurgency in Thailand’s southern border provinces and the inability of the Thai Government to understand and deal with it. It analyses new dimensions of the conflict, and considers the extent to which the insurgency is a coherent movement. In addition, the monograph also critically examines the response of the Thai state to the insurgency. Taken together, these two analytical threads allow us to address the questions of why and how the insurgency morphed in the direction it did, and what this portends for both counterinsurgency efforts and the state of affairs in Thailand more generally. In brief, four arguments are made: • First, despite the discernible religious hues in insurgent discourse and language today, today’s insurgency remains fundamentally based on earlier localist narratives, goals and motivations. This is vii CONFRONTING GHOSTS because history possesses deep meanings for local communities and makes their current situation more intelligible. • Second, the nature of the insurgency itself has changed from the hierarchical and structured struggles of the past that were mostly led by an ethnic Malay political and religious elite to the fluid and shapeless organisational structure of a ‘new’ insurgency that as yet lacks clear, negotiable political goals. In matters of tactics, structure and mobilisation, the insurgency today departs from the traditional script of resistance in southern Thailand. • Third, although there may be agreement among groups involved Contents in the insurgency as to what might be the broad objectives of the movement (in fact, there might even be disagreement on this count), each may have different opinions as to how to Executive summary vii proceed to achieve them. Rather than a monolithic insurgent Introduction xi movement, we may be looking at the existence of divisions and separate factions, each directly serving their own interests with Chapter 1: A legacy of insurgency 1 methods and means they deem most appropriate even as they Chapter 2: The ‘new’ insurgency 7 see themselves as part of, and sharing the common interests of, Chapter 3: Tactics and targets 25 a larger movement. Chapter 4: Mobilisation and motivations 37 • Finally, tackling the insurgency on both military and political Chapter 5: Responding to the insurgency 51 counts will pose an even greater challenge for the Thai Chapter 6: Transnational dimensions of local insurgency 69 Government because of its inability to make significant headway Chapter 7: The need for dialogue 81 in its counterinsurgency effort with properly calibrated Conclusion 93 responses. This stems from its reluctance to comprehend and accept the nature of this challenge to its legitimacy in the southern Notes 97 provinces. Upper echelons of Thai politics and the security Bibliography 111 services do not appreciate that they are facing an insurgency Lowy Institute Papers: other titles in the series 115 that is for the most part driven by a resilient resistance narrative that is finding new tactical forms of expression and mobilisation. Rather, given to instant gratification in terms of policy choices, they continue to be driven by a Manichean view of the Malay– Muslim population in the southern provinces that misses the proverbial forest for the trees. viii ix Introduction Following nearly fifteen years of civilian rule, the Thai military led by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin ousted the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinnawatra in a bloodless coup d’état on 16 September 2006. This development was met with mixed feelings across Thai society and the political spectrum. On the one hand, it raised fears that democracy had been dealt a body blow, a particularly salient concern given Thailand’s long history of military coups, dictatorships and, in contrast, its relatively patchy experience of democracy. On the other hand, the coup raised hopes that unpopular (and undemocratic) policies associated with the Thaksin administration could be repealed, thereby paving the way for improved governance. In particular,