M E M O R A N D U M
TO: OPPORTUNITY & FREEDOM PAC
FROM: GLEN BOLGER
RE: KEY FINDINGS – SURVEY OF REPUBLICAN CAUCUS-GOERS IN IOWA
DATE: JUNE 24, 2015
Key Findings 1. Rick Perry has moved from 10th to 5th in the Iowa Caucus ballot test since the Opportunity & Freedom PAC started its positive advertising on his behalf .
According to Real Clear Politics, in its average of polls in Iowa covering April 25th to June 8th, Rick Perry was polling only 3% and was in 10th place. This prior polling only captured three days of the advertising done by the PAC (started June 5th).
In our poll of likely caucus-goers that finished last night, Perry’s vote had more than doubled to 7%, and he has jumped over five other candidates into a tie for fifth place with Mike Huckabee.
Scott Walker is the only Republican candidate in Iowa in double digits, which means that Perry trails the tied-for-second-place candidates (Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, and Rand Paul) by just two points.
2. Rick Perry has the second highest favorables of any candidate, trailing only Scott Walker.
Before people will vote for a candidate, they have to like him/her first. Rick Perry’s favorables are up to 70%, trailing only Scott Walker’s 74% favorable mark.
It’s been said many times in political polling that “the ballot is a lagging indicator,” which means a candidate has to get movement on other dimensions, particularly image, before you see the ballot swing. That’s what is happening with our positive ads. Along with the Governor’s grassroots campaign, the positive ads are making it easy for Iowa GOP caucus-goers to like Perry. The next step is that some will continue to move to vote for him. Iowa GOP Caucus Survey – Key Findings June 24, 2015 page two
Looking at the three candidates currently below Walker but above Perry on the ballot, Carson has a solid 67% favorable rating, but Paul and Bush are far lower at 55% and 49% respectively. That shows they have a much lower ceiling, while Perry has a much higher ceiling thanks to his 70% favorable rating.
3. While voters do not know much about Rick Perry, they become far more open to him when they learn more about his stellar and successful record of leadership as Governor of Texas.
After testing elements of Perry’s bio and accomplishments message, fully 71% of caucus- goers say there is either a good or fair chance that they will vote for Perry. While he clearly won’t get 71% (obviously, none of the candidates will!), that does show that the more they hear about Perry, the more likely caucus-goers are to support him.
The Bottom Line The Opportunity & Freedom PAC’s decision to be on the air early in Iowa is clearly helping Governor Perry. The data shows he’s improved his position in the caucus significantly, moving from 10th to 5th in less than one month. Perry’s favorables have also increased significantly, presaging further ballot gains. The message testing shows that there is a lot more mileage to be gained out of the Governor’s successful conservative record in Texas. Perry has the momentum and the opportunity to continue it.
Methodology Elduva LLC, under the direction of Glen Bolger, completed a poll of 500 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers June 21-23, 2015. Of those interviews, 125 were conducted among cell phone respondents. The overall survey has a margin of error of +4.38% in 95 out of 100 cases.