CLIMATE RISKS AND FOOD SECURITY IN A Review of Evidence and Priorities for Adaptation Strategies April 2017 1. Executive Summary

This document reviews some of the main existing Even more individuals are at risk of becoming food studies, national strategies and reports related to insecure in the event of a shock. climate impacts on food security and livelihoods in Based on the reviewed studies and reports, the Tajikistan. It highlights the socio-economic main challenges to food security from a climate vulnerability context and main challenges for food perspective can be summarized as the following: security as a result of climate change and related disasters. By employing a broad approach to food Climate change exacerbates structural security, it contributes to the overall understanding challenges and increases vulnerability of the of how climate change will impact not only already vulnerable. Tajikistan is the most production and availability related concerns, but climate-vulnerable country in the Europe and also economic access and poverty links to climate Central Asia (ECA) region due to its relatively change, and stability and utilization challenges. weak social and economically productive The review highlights existing evidence carried out structures and low adaptive capacity. High by partners and by WFP, with a particular focus on poverty rates among rural communities of WFP’s Integrated Context Analysis and its Tajikistan increase people’s vulnerability to subsequent tools for community consultations, the climatic shocks and stresses, and is further Seasonal Livelihood Programming consultation and compounded by food insecurity, high rates of the Community Based Participatory Planning tool. labor migration and poor provision of services. It then presents the current measures undertaken The cumulative effects of repeated climate-related by WFP Tajikistan in addressing climate-related disasters impact on poverty-stricken and risks to food security linked with national priorities. vulnerable populations, severely restricting their The last section of this report provides ability to improve their coping capacities. summarizing conclusions, highlighting key areas of Tajikistan’s relative economic exposure to natural concerns based on the presented information and hazard losses is particularly high and has been gives topical suggestions on ways in which risk calculated at over 20 percent of GDP for a natural informed development and climate adaptation can hazard event with a 200-year return period2. be supported. Around 75 percent of the country’s population lives in rural areas with the majority being Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. engaged in the agriculture sector. In addition to According documentation compiled by the United being materially poor and thus prone to financial Nations Framework Convention on Climate 1 risks, the agricultural sector is also vulnerable to Change , temperatures in Tajikistan will rise from climate variability and climate change3. 1.8 °C to 2.9 °C by 2050. Should these projections be realized, climate change in the Tajikistan faces severe challenges in relation to country will negatively impact water resources, soil degradation such as erosion, swamping, the agricultural sector, transportation deforestation and salinization. These problems are infrastructure and public health. both due to climate change and man-made factors. Desertification has become one of the Food insecurity in Tajikistan is a serious concern burning issues of the country. Long dry periods and is likely to be further exacerbated by climate together with high temperatures in spring and change. Trend analysis carried out and presented summer seasons lead to the intensification of in this review estimates that more than 1,000,000 desertification processes in Southern and Central individuals are consistently food insecure and Tajikistan. In view of climate warming and exposed to recurrent climatic shocks. More than increased evaporatio