Kopernikus Project Energy Transition Navigation System | ENavi Status Report 2018 ENERGY TRANSITION CALLS FOR DIALOGUE WITH SOCIETY Authors › Dr Marion Dreyer, DIALOGIK gemeinnützige Gesellschaft für Kommunikations- und Kooperationsforschung mbH: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Ottmar Edenhofer, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung: [email protected] › Prof. Dr-Ing. Manfred Fischedick, Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Armin Grunwald, Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung / Karlsruher Institut für Technologie: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Hans-Martin Henning, Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Clemens Hoffmann, Fraunhofer-Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Energiesystemtechnik IEE: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Kai Hufendiek, Stuttgart Research Initiative on Integrated Systems Analysis for Energy / Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Carlo Jaeger, GCF – Global Climate Forum e. V.: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Michèle Knodt, Technische Universität Darmstadt: [email protected] › Dr Christoph Kost, Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE: [email protected] › Dr Gunnar Luderer, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung: [email protected] › Dr Birgit Mack, Stuttgart Research Initiative on Integrated Systems Analysis for Energy / Zentrum für interdisziplinäre Risiko- und Innovationsforschung: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Ellen Matthies, Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg: [email protected] › Dr Steffi Ober, Zivilgesellschaftliche Plattform Forschungswende: [email protected] › Dr Michael Pahle, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Ortwin Renn, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e. V. (IASS): [email protected] › Prof. Dr Michael Rodi, IKEM – Institut für Klimaschutz, Energie und Mobilität e. V.: [email protected] › Dr Dirk Scheer, Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung / Karlsruher Institut für Technologie: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Frithjof Staiß, Stuttgart Research Initiative on Integrated Systems Analysis for Energy / Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Württemberg: [email protected]
Published by Edited by Designed by Kopernikus Project Energy Transition Prof. Dr Ortwin Renn: MÜLLER MÖLLER BRUSS Navigation System | ENavi [email protected] Werbeagentur GmbH Institute for Advanced Sustainability Dr Stefan Stückrad: Wilhelmine-Gemberg-Weg 6 Studies e. V. (IASS) [email protected] 10179 Berlin Berliner Straße 130 Christina Camier: www.mmb-berlin.de 14467 Potsdam [email protected] Tel: +49 (0) 331 - 2 88 22 - 300 Printed by Fax: +49 (0) 331 - 2 88 22 - 310 Photo credit Königsdruck Printmedien www.iass-potsdam.de Title: Getty Images; p. 4, 12, 23: iStock; und digitale Dienste GmbH Email: [email protected] p. 14, 17, 20: © IASS; photo: R. Schulten; Alt-Reinickendorf 28 www.kopernikus-projekte.de / enavi Effizienzhaus Plus mit Elektromobilität 13407 Berlin des BMUB; S. 7, 8, 27: © IASS; photo: P. Chiussi Last updated December 2018 CONTENTS
Page 5 1. ENavi: Navigating towards a successful Energy Transition
Page 7 2. What ENavi wants to achieve: evidence-based, practical Recommendations for Action
Page 13 3. The Transformation of the Electricity System: A Test Run for the Navigation System
Page 18 4. The Transformation of the Heat Sector: Sector coupling, Efficiency and Digitalisation
Page 22 5. The Transformation of the Transport Sector: The inter- and transdisciplinary approach
Page 26 6. ENavi's visible contributions: to the Energy Transition The four Kopernikus Projects for the Energy Transition are funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and started at the end of 2016. At the centre of the Kopernikus Project ENavi, described here, is the Roads- map for a systemically linked navigation towards the ener- gy transition. This status report describes the main findings. In particular, the collages for the three main topics – put together from several mosaic stones of the 13 work packages – provide insights into sustainable structures and requirements for electricity systems, heat supply and mobility. 1. ENAVI: NAVIGATING TOWARDS A SUCCESSFUL ENERGY TRANSITION
A successful energy transition Citizens are affected in the same way as depends on society stakeholders in the economy, science, The transformation of the energy civil society and politics. There is a lack system, which is currently dominated of reliable orientation for all. Who will by fossil fuels, into a system based on carry the costs of this conversion to a
renewable energies, largely free of CO2, largely fossil-free energy supply? What is a profound process of change. The en- will the environmental costs be if the ergy transition encompasses technical, energy transition is not implemented economic, organisational, legal, political, on time? But particularly: How can the social and systems-scientific challenges – effects and side effects of interventions throughout all sectors (electricity, heat- in complex policy areas be assessed? ing, mobility) and all areas of application What consequences are to be expected (household, industry, trade, transport). if, for example, the state prescribes an exit from coal usage at a specific point According to the study on the social in time? Uncertainty prevails across all sustainability of the energy transition, stakeholder groups. with the participation of ENavi, almost 90 percent of the German population still support the new energy transition. However, more than half of the respon- dents consider its implementation to be expensive and unfair. Many have lost confidence in energy policy.
5 Wherever there is a particularly high degree of complexity on the road to the energy transition, we are here to offer orientation, explains Prof. Dr Ortwin Renn of the Institute for Advanced Sustainibility Studies (IASS), spokesman for the Kopernikus Project ENavi
The Kopernikus Project Energy Transition For a long time, the energy transition 59 associated partners Navigation System | ENavi unites a wide was viewed as something that could be (24 research institutes, range of technical expertise (see Table 1) achieved through linear – consecutive 18 university institutes, three aided by a decidedly systemic approach. implementation. First of all, energy non-governmental organisations, The key words here are integration systems were techno-economically nine companies, three local and networking: the aim is an inter-/ simulated. Ecological aspects were then authorities, two regional transdisciplinary approach to integrate integrated. Finally, social acceptance authorities) are working in political instances and work across sec- was examined. This approach failed to 13 thematic work packages. tors. The work packages (WP) contribute reach its target. This is clearly visible in their respective research results as indi- the lack of investment in energy-efficient In addition, 26 competence vidual elements of a common mosaic – renovation of buildings and the slug- partners are contributing their a consistent and knowledge-based gish demand for electric cars. Profound, practical experience to the topics development path for a sustainable en- innovation-driven transformation will not of infrastructure, heating and ergy transition. Depending on topic, the occur without the acceptance and early mobility. respective mosaic consists, on a flexible support of citizens. basis, of several interacting building blocks, for example scenarios, technol- ogy profiles, and action narratives (also simply referred to as narratives).
6 2. WHAT ENAVI WANTS TO ACHIEVE: EVIDENCE-BASED, PRACTICAL RECOMMEN- DATIONS FOR ACTION
Navigation as an Interdisciplinary The inter- and transdisciplinary approach and Transdisciplinary Process associated with this is expressed in In order to achieve the German gov- the image of navigation. The navigation ernment’s energy transition and the system is intended to help policymakers climate targets for 2050, the energy and economic actors to make upcoming system must be understood as a whole. decisions on the shaping of the energy This includes systemic analyses of the transition by showing the respective associated technical, economic, eco- consequences, path dependencies logical, legal and social challenges. The and trade-offs for various options Energy Transition Navigation System | (transformation paths). Depending on ENavi informs economic and political the political programme or vision of decision-makers of concrete options for the future, decision-makers can then action that are both scientifically evi- determine for themselves which of dence-based and tested in practice. these paths are particularly appropriate, politically opportune or practicable.
7 As various options are offered, ENavi The starting point of the systemic analy- not only provides a roadmap, but also sis is the identification of issues relevant a Roadsmap: The Roadsmap shows for all of society in the area of energy many ways to the energy transition, but supply including the central sectors: not all lead to the goal without great electricity, heating, traffic. The broad burdens or side effects. A central task of research team works on the tasks in an ENavi is to develop proposals to mitigate interdisciplinary manner throughout all negative effects as well as accompanying areas of engineering, natural sciences, measures for unavoidable side effects economics, law, social and behavioural and at the same time to identify oppor- sciences, ecology, and systems analysis. tunities for positive side effects. Above all, it is important to map the effects The essential characteristic of ENavi is of political and economic interventions the interaction of system knowledge in the energy system in all their fac- (what causes what?), orientational ets and with all trade-offs. To this end knowledge (where to go?) and trans- simulations, scenarios and models, but formation knowledge (how best to get also expert surveys (group Delphi) and there?). This is done in the above-men- interactive stakeholder dialogues are tioned 13 work packages and additional- used, and practical experience (living ly in six working groups (for acceptance, labs, model regions) is systematically modelling and scenarios, law, technolo- collected in order to obtain as complete gy, transdisciplinary discourse, doctoral a picture as possible. students) that extend across all of the work packages in order to provide points of contact or opportunities for exchange with the other Kopernikus Projects.
Page 9: The 13 thematic ENavi Work Packages 8 Roadsmap and navigation We are developing the navigation instrument as a “toolbox” that combines the results Prof. Dr Armin Grunwald of the other work packages and reveals pathways to a sustainable energy system.
Technological transformation We show the advantages and disadvantages of different technologies and look for Prof. Dr Frithjof Staiß new technological solutions by developing “technology profiles”. We also explore how innovations can assert themselves on the market.
Economic instrument check With the aid of energy-economic models, we examine how German and European Prof. Dr Ottmar Edenhofer (until 05 / 2018), policy instruments can navigate the sustainable transformation of the energy Dr Michael Pahle (from 05 / 2018), system. This is supplemented by the microeconomic perspective, including Prof. Dr Kai Hufendiek competitive pricing in markets with high shares of renewable energies.
A legally sound success We identify and provide answers to the most important legal questions on the Prof. Dr Michael Rodi success of the turn of energy policies with regard to market, regulatory, and institutional design, multi-level distribution of responsibility in matters of law and regulation, legality and legitimacy.
Policy coordination and participation We analyse energy governance in Germany, Austria, Poland and the EU as well Prof. Dr Michèle Knodt as the participation of citizens and civil society in the energy transition.
Behaviour in the context of We look at how private households and companies are adapting to the energy changing values and lifestyles transition, paying particular attention to their willingness to invest in this process Dr Birgit Mack, and change their behaviour. Prof. Dr Ellen Matthies
Compatibility of the SDGs We investigate the benefits and unintended side effects of the energy transition on Prof. Dr Ottmar Edenhofer, the environment (for example on air pollution or resource consumption) with a view Dr Gunnar Luderer to harmonising the different sustainable development goals.
Merging systems We develop methods for the analysis of measures for coupling sectors and describe Prof. Dr Hans-Martin Henning cross-sector transformation paths. In the process, we will provide a clear overview of how different sectors interact in the energy transition.
Digitalisation and ICT We point to options for greater flexibilisation on both the supply and demand sides, Prof. Dr Clemens Hoffmann, with a particular focus on the flexibilisation of electricity demand; the smart-heating Prof. Dr Carlo Jaeger breakthrough thanks to digitalisation; and changes in traffic behaviour.
International perspective We prepare country studies on climate and energy policy, for example in Poland, Prof. Dr Ottmar Edenhofer, and organise international workshops, for example in China – on the basis that the Dr Michael Pahle energy transition can only succeed if it is embedded as an international principle.
Multi-criteria assessment We derive policy packages and scenarios from the complex insights of the ENavi Prof. Dr Ortwin Renn partners, which we also assess based on ethical, legal, economic, ecological, and social criteria.
Science-practice dialogue We foster the collaboration between science and society in the research process, Dr Marion Dreyer, integrate communities of practice and insights from the field into scientific Dr Steffi Ober, Dr Piet Sellke discourse, and lay the foundations for a continuous dialogue.
Testing of the navigation tool in practice The living labs (among others, public utility companies/GEODE) subject the scientific Prof. Dr Michael Rodi, results to practical trials and feed the findings into scientific discourse. In addition, Prof. Dr-Ing. Manfred Fischedick we identify which experiences of real transformation processes in model regions (for example the Ruhr region) should be considered in the design of future processes.
9 WP 1
Roadsmap / Navigation
WP 11 WP 12 Transdisciplinary WP 2 1 Evaluation Discourse / Criteria Competence Partners
That about explains the scientific analy- sis with its inter-/transdisciplinary claim. However, this is not enough to translate the results into policy and action-rele- vant orientations. ENavi translates the WP 13 interdisciplinary research results into Model Regions / concrete policy packages via institu- Living Labs tionalised dialogue with involved social parties, such as companies, associations and non-governmental organisations, Figure 1: ENavi interplay for creating a Roadsmap evaluates them on the basis of central criteria such as effectiveness, efficiency, acceptability, as well as fairness, and In a first step, the research teams in the In the third step the agenda consists of tests them – in part in model regions work packages WP2–10 produce and col- the evaluation of the policy packages and living labs. The joint development lect action-relevant research results and and, later, also of the Roadsmap. The and reflection of these policy packag- develop proposals for transformation researchers carry out a comprehensive es, within the scope of the interplay paths and possible policy interventions evaluation of the policy packages and of science and practice, represent the (policy packages) that are suitable for Roadsmaps, including their likely side essential characteristics of the trans- achieving the objectives associated with effects. They also identify trade-offs and disciplinary approach pursued by the the energy transition. Further expertise uncertainties associated with the imple- Project. Figure 1 shows the interplay of comes from the competence partners mentation. The interdisciplinary team of the work packages (WP) for the creation, (practitioners, works councils) and the WP11 has developed a comprehensive evaluation and trial of policy packages living labs. catalogue of criteria for this purpose. and (coupled) scenarios (roads for the Methodologically, a dynamic multi-crite- Roadsmap(s)) to achieve the desired In a second step, an interdependence ria assessment is used predominantly for objectives. analysis is used to identify side effects, this purpose. synergies and instances of incompatibil- ity for each of the policy packages and In the fourth step the researchers of quantify these as far as possible (WP1). WP12 feed the policy packages with This creates impact profiles for options their evaluated impact profiles, into the for measures in all of the fields of impact dialogue with practitioners (the “compe- that are necessary for the subsequent tence partners” and the “works council evaluation of the measures. Parallel to platform”) and the decision-makers from this, scenarios are created (roads for the politics, civil society and the economic Roadsmap) in which the policy packages sector. are integrated as drivers of the desired and respectively set targets.
10 Using the methodical approach of the This ENavi process can be seen in the These three topics of the first phase are living labs, the scientific results are sequence shown in Figure 2. In the first at different stages of implementation. tested in practice and the findings are project phase, until 2019, the concrete The overview of the turn of electricity fed back into the scientific discourse. procedure will be demonstrated in the policies, composed of many individual Knowledge from transformation pro- test runs for three main topics: mosaic pieces, mainly comprises model cesses that have already taken place in scenarios that are currently being fur- model regions will also be processed and 1. Transformation of the electricity ther developed into complex options for fed into the discussion. system including coupling with heat measures in transdisciplinary dialogue 2. Move to sustainable heating through with stakeholders. The systemic overview In the fifth and last step the results of the sector coupling, user integration and of the move to sustainable heating in- discursive dialogue and the practical flexible, smart control cludes the modelling of innovative forms tests are integrated as elements into a 3. Decarbonisation of transport with a of coupling heat and power, as well as larger Roadsmap. focus on multimodality, intermodality new developments for the production and alternative engines of green fuels and improved efficiency through digitalisation. Possible solutions are tested in living labs, such as public utility companies (GEODE), for their prac- tical suitability. The synopsis of the turn in traffic policies concentrates on the DISCO RSE ROADSMAP ANA SIS development of optimised policy pack- ages to promote sustainable mobility. To this end, literature analysis and expert Proposals for Policy Packages knowledge (group Delphi approach) were combined with the knowledge from the competence partners and a compre- hensive impact analysis was carried out. The analyses of the three main topics Stakeholder- Impact developed so far are described in detail Integration Profile in the following chapters.
Integration Impact in Roadsmap Assessment
INTEGRATION ASSESSMENT Figure 2: Methodological procedure
Through dialogue with parties from the field and with society, the necessary technologi- cal transformation of the energy transition is made considerably more feasible. Prof. Dr Frithjof Staiß, ZSW Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung
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3. THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: A TEST RUN FOR THE NAVIGATION SYSTEM
The transformation of the elec- The results are intended to inform deci- tricity system as first mosaic sion-makers about measures to phase The “mosaic” of the transformation of out coal and the effects of corresponding the electricity system is the first and paths. The added value compared to most developed main topic for the other studies is mostly to be found in concrete implementation of the navi- the resolute inclusion of social parties, gation approach. It analyses possible a multitude of scientific disciplines, and transformation paths in the electricity the European perspective. The results sector against the background of the are fed purposefully into political-social current political debate: the failure to discourse and summarised in a synthe- meet the 2020 climate targets and the sis report, which is available as a first establishment of a commission to draw draft. Scientists are already involved up proposals for phasing out coal. in intensive exchange with members of the “Coal Commission” and other decision-making bodies.
13 Key results and findings For the year 2030, however, there is of the scenarios and model- still considerable leeway: coal-fired based preliminary studies power generation varies between 44 and The model-based analyses, which also 150 TWh among the scenarios. Two include all other sectors (sector integra- factors have a reducing effect on the tion), show that achieving the climate climate gas: (a) Embedding the energy targets requires an almost complete transition into a more ambitious phase-out of coal by 2050 (below 50 European policy and (b) cost-efficient TWh). Only for Carbon Capture and distribution of the climate protection Methodological approach Storage (CCS) is this not the case; requirements among the various sectors, and current status of work however, this is viewed as unrealistic by in contrast to the existing sectoral The methodological approach is based a broad majority of stakeholders and is targets. The latter would mean an even on the ENavi process (see Figure 2) for therefore not being further pursued. more ambitious 2030 target for the which individual steps have been me- energy sector, equivalent to a faster exit thodically formulated to apply it to the from coal usage (see Figure 3). priority topics. The corresponding loop has currently been run through a total of one and a half times. At the beginning, a number of scenarios were developed around possible measures and the cor- responding paths were roughly explored Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 2030 in order to gain initial insights. These were the basis of discussion for the Sector Goals 2030 Cost-optimised Goals subsequent exchange with stakeholders. Based on feedback from stakeholders, 200 183 the selection and definition of scenarios and measures were revised and alterna- 160 tive or accompanying measures included. 143 148 145 140 131 To this end, more in-depth qualitative 133 analyses were carried out on legal 120 feasibility as well as qualitative impact 98 assessments along several dimensions. 80 The following is an example description of the first key results of these analyses, including stakeholder feedback. 40
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