Kopernikus Project Energy Transition Navigation System | ENavi Status Report 2018 ENERGY TRANSITION CALLS FOR DIALOGUE WITH SOCIETY Authors › Dr Marion Dreyer, DIALOGIK gemeinnützige Gesellschaft für Kommunikations- und Kooperationsforschung mbH: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Ottmar Edenhofer, -Institut für Klimafolgenforschung: [email protected] › Prof. Dr-Ing. Manfred Fischedick, Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Armin Grunwald, Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung / Karlsruher Institut für Technologie: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Hans-Martin Henning, Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Clemens Hoffmann, Fraunhofer-Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Energiesystemtechnik IEE: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Kai Hufendiek, Research Initiative on Integrated Systems Analysis for Energy / Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Carlo Jaeger, GCF – Global Climate Forum e. V.: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Michèle Knodt, Technische Universität : [email protected] › Dr Christoph Kost, Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE: [email protected] › Dr Gunnar Luderer, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung: [email protected] › Dr Birgit Mack, Stuttgart Research Initiative on Integrated Systems Analysis for Energy / Zentrum für interdisziplinäre Risiko- und Innovationsforschung: [email protected]­ › Prof. Dr Ellen Matthies, Otto-von-Guericke-Universität : [email protected] › Dr Steffi Ober, Zivilgesellschaftliche Plattform Forschungswende: [email protected] › Dr Michael Pahle, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Ortwin Renn, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e. V. (IASS): [email protected] › Prof. Dr Michael Rodi, IKEM – Institut für Klimaschutz, Energie und Mobilität e. V.: [email protected] › Dr Dirk Scheer, Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung / Karlsruher Institut für Technologie: [email protected] › Prof. Dr Frithjof Staiß, Stuttgart Research Initiative on Integrated Systems Analysis for Energy / Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Württemberg: [email protected]

Published by Edited by Designed by Kopernikus Project Energy Transition Prof. Dr Ortwin Renn: MÜLLER MÖLLER BRUSS Navigation System | ENavi [email protected] Werbeagentur GmbH Institute for Advanced Sustainability Dr Stefan Stückrad: Wilhelmine-Gemberg-Weg 6 Studies e. V. (IASS) [email protected] 10179 Berliner Straße 130 Christina Camier: www.mmb-berlin.de 14467 Potsdam [email protected] Tel: +49 (0) 331 - 2 88 22 - 300 Printed by Fax: +49 (0) 331 - 2 88 22 - 310 Photo credit Königsdruck Printmedien www.iass-potsdam.de Title: Getty Images; p. 4, 12, 23: iStock; und digitale Dienste GmbH Email: [email protected] p. 14, 17, 20: © IASS; photo: R. ­Schulten; Alt-Reinickendorf 28 www.kopernikus-projekte.de / enavi Effizienzhaus Plus mit ­Elektromobilität 13407 Berlin des BMUB; S. 7, 8, 27: © IASS; photo: P. Chiussi Last updated December 2018 CONTENTS

Page 5 1. ENavi: Navigating towards a successful Energy Transition

Page 7 2. What ENavi wants to achieve: evidence-based, practical Recommendations for Action

Page 13 3. The Transformation of the Electricity System: A Test Run for the Navigation System

Page 18 4. The Transformation of the Heat Sector: Sector coupling, Efficiency and Digitalisation

Page 22 5. The Transformation of the Transport Sector: The inter- and transdisciplinary approach

Page 26 6. ENavi's visible contributions: to the Energy Transition The four Kopernikus Projects for the Energy Transition are funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and started at the end of 2016. At the centre of the Kopernikus Project ENavi, described here, is the Roads- map for a systemically linked navigation towards the ener- gy transition. This status report describes the main ­findings. In particular, the collages for the three main topics – put together from several stones of the 13 work packages – provide insights into sustainable structures and ­requirements for electricity systems, heat supply and mobility. 1. ENAVI: NAVIGATING TOWARDS A SUCCESSFUL ENERGY TRANSITION

A successful energy transition Citizens are affected in the same way as depends on society stakeholders in the economy, science, The transformation of the energy civil society and politics. There is a lack system, which is currently dominated of reliable orientation for all. Who will by fossil fuels, into a system based on carry the costs of this conversion to a

renewable energies, largely free of CO2, largely fossil-free energy supply? What is a profound process of change. The en- will the environmental costs be if the ergy transition encompasses technical, energy transition is not implemented economic, organisational, legal, political, on time? But particularly: How can the social and systems-scientific challenges – effects and side effects of interventions throughout all sectors (electricity, heat- in complex policy areas be assessed? ing, mobility) and all areas of application What consequences are to be expected (household, industry, trade, transport). if, for example, the state prescribes an exit from coal usage at a specific point According to the study on the social in time? Uncertainty prevails across all ­sustainability of the energy transition, stakeholder groups. with the participation of ENavi, almost 90 percent of the German population still support the new energy transition. However, more than half of the respon- dents consider its implementation to be expensive and unfair. Many have lost confidence in energy policy.

5 Wherever there is a particularly high degree of complexity on the road to the energy transition, we are here to offer orientation, explains Prof. Dr Ortwin Renn of the Institute for Advanced Sustainibility Studies (IASS), spokesman for the Kopernikus Project ENavi

The Kopernikus Project Energy Transition For a long time, the energy transition 59 associated partners Navi­gation System | ENavi unites a wide was viewed as something that could be (24 research institutes, range of technical expertise (see Table 1) achieved through linear – consecutive 18 university institutes, three aided by a decidedly systemic approach. implementation. First of all, energy non-governmental organisations, The key words here are integration systems were techno-economically nine companies, three local and networking: the aim is an inter-/ simulated. Ecological aspects were then authorities, two regional transdisciplinary approach to integrate integrated. Finally, social acceptance authorities) are working in political instances and work across sec- was examined. This approach failed to 13 thematic work packages. tors. The work packages (WP) contribute reach its target. This is clearly visible in their respective research results as indi­- the lack of investment in energy-efficient In addition, 26 competence vidual elements of a common mosaic – renovation of buildings and the slug- partners are contributing their a consistent and knowledge-based gish demand for electric cars. Profound, practical experience to the topics deve­lopment path for a sustainable en- innovation-driven transformation will not of infra­structure, heating and ergy transition. Depending on topic, the occur without the acceptance and early mobility. respective mosaic consists, on a flexible support of citizens. basis, of several interacting building blocks, for example scenarios, technol- ogy profiles, and action narratives (also simply referred to as narratives).

6 2. WHAT ENAVI WANTS TO ACHIEVE: EVIDENCE-BASED, PRACTICAL RECOMMEN-­ DATIONS FOR ACTION

Navigation as an Interdisciplinary The inter- and transdisciplinary approach and Transdisciplinary Process associated with this is expressed in In order to achieve the German gov- the image of navigation. The navigation ernment’s energy transition and the ­system is intended to help policy­makers climate targets for 2050, the energy and economic actors to make upcoming system must be understood as a whole. decisions on the shaping of the energy This ­includes systemic analyses of the transition by showing the respective associated technical, economic, eco- consequences, path dependencies logical, legal and social challenges. The and trade-offs for various options Energy Transition Navigation System | (­transformation paths). Depending on ENavi informs economic and political the political programme or vision of decision-makers of concrete options for the future, decision-makers can then action that are both scientifically evi- determine for themselves which of dence-based and tested in practice. these paths are particularly appropriate, politically opportune or practicable.

7 As various options are offered, ENavi The starting point of the systemic analy- not only provides a roadmap, but also sis is the identification of issues relevant a Roadsmap: The Roadsmap shows for all of society in the area of energy many ways to the energy transition, but supply including the central sectors: not all lead to the goal without great electricity, heating, traffic. The broad burdens or side effects. A central task of research team works on the tasks in an ENavi is to develop proposals to mitigate interdisciplinary manner throughout all negative effects as well as accompanying areas of engineering, natural sciences, measures for unavoidable side effects economics, law, social and behavioural and at the same time to identify oppor- sciences, ecology, and systems analysis. tunities for positive side effects. Above all, it is important to map the effects The essential characteristic of ENavi is of political and economic interventions the interaction of system knowledge in the energy system in all their fac- (what causes what?), orientational ets and with all trade-offs. To this end knowledge (where to go?) and trans- simulations, scenarios and models, but formation knowledge (how best to get also expert surveys (group Delphi) and there?). This is done in the above-men- interactive stakeholder dialogues are tioned 13 work packages and additional- used, and practical experience (living ly in six working groups (for acceptance, labs, model regions) is systematically modelling and scenarios, law, technolo- collected in order to obtain as complete gy, transdisciplinary discourse, doctoral a picture as possible. students) that extend across all of the work packages in order to provide points of contact or opportunities for exchange with the other Kopernikus Projects.

Page 9: The 13 thematic ENavi Work Packages 8 Roadsmap and navigation We are developing the navigation instrument as a “toolbox” that combines the results Prof. Dr Armin Grunwald of the other work packages and reveals pathways to a sustainable energy system.

Technological transformation We show the advantages and disadvantages of different technologies and look for Prof. Dr Frithjof Staiß new technological solutions by developing “technology profiles”. We also explore how innovations can assert themselves on the market.

Economic instrument check With the aid of energy-economic models, we examine how German and European Prof. Dr Ottmar Edenhofer (until 05 / 2018), policy instruments can navigate the sustainable transformation of the energy Dr Michael Pahle (from 05 / 2018), system. This is supplemented by the microeconomic perspective, including Prof. Dr Kai Hufendiek competitive pricing in markets with high shares of renewable energies.

A legally sound success We identify and provide answers to the most important legal questions on the Prof. Dr Michael Rodi success of the turn of energy policies with regard to market, regulatory, and institutional design, multi-level distribution of responsibility in matters of law and regulation, legality and legitimacy.

Policy coordination and participation We analyse energy governance in , , and the EU as well Prof. Dr Michèle Knodt as the participation of citizens and civil society in the energy transition.

Behaviour in the context of We look at how private households and companies are adapting to the energy changing values and lifestyles transition, paying particular attention to their willingness to invest in this process Dr Birgit Mack, and change their behaviour. Prof. Dr Ellen Matthies

Compatibility of the SDGs We investigate the benefits and unintended side effects of the energy transition on Prof. Dr Ottmar Edenhofer, the environment (for example on air pollution or resource consumption) with a view Dr Gunnar Luderer to harmonising the different sustainable development goals.

Merging systems We develop methods for the analysis of measures for coupling sectors and describe Prof. Dr Hans-Martin Henning cross-sector transformation paths. In the process, we will provide a clear overview of how different sectors interact in the energy transition.

Digitalisation and ICT We point to options for greater flexibilisation on both the supply and demand sides, Prof. Dr Clemens Hoffmann, with a particular focus on the flexibilisation of electricity demand; the smart-heating Prof. Dr Carlo Jaeger breakthrough thanks to digitalisation; and changes in traffic behaviour.

International perspective We prepare country studies on climate and energy policy, for example in Poland, Prof. Dr Ottmar Edenhofer, and organise international workshops, for example in – on the basis that the Dr Michael Pahle energy transition can only succeed if it is embedded as an international principle.

Multi-criteria assessment We derive policy packages and scenarios from the complex insights of the ENavi Prof. Dr Ortwin Renn partners, which we also assess based on ethical, legal, economic, ecological, and social criteria.

Science-practice dialogue We foster the collaboration between science and society in the research process, Dr Marion Dreyer, integrate communities of practice and insights from the field into scientific Dr Steffi Ober, Dr Piet Sellke discourse, and lay the foundations for a continuous dialogue.

Testing of the navigation tool in practice The living labs (among others, public utility companies/GEODE) subject the scientific Prof. Dr Michael Rodi, results to practical trials and feed the findings into scientific discourse. In addition, Prof. Dr-Ing. Manfred Fischedick we identify which experiences of real transformation processes in model regions (for example the Ruhr region) should be considered in the design of future processes.

9 WP 1

Roadsmap / Navigation

WP 11 WP 12 Transdisciplinary WP 2 1 Evaluation Discourse / Criteria Competence Partners

That about explains the scientific analy- sis with its inter-/transdisciplinary claim. However, this is not enough to translate the results into policy and action-rele- vant orientations. ENavi translates the WP 13 interdisciplinary research results into Model Regions / concrete policy packages via institu- Living Labs tionalised dialogue with involved social parties, such as companies, associations and non-governmental organisations, Figure 1: ENavi interplay for creating a Roadsmap evaluates them on the basis of central criteria such as effectiveness, efficiency, acceptability, as well as fairness, and In a first step, the research teams in the In the third step the agenda consists of tests them – in part in model regions work packages WP2–10 produce and col- the evaluation of the policy packages and living labs. The joint development lect action-relevant research results and and, later, also of the Roadsmap. The and reflection of these policy packag- develop proposals for transformation researchers carry out a comprehensive es, within the scope of the interplay paths and possible policy interventions evaluation of the policy packages and of science and practice, represent the (policy packages) that are suitable for Roadsmaps, including their likely side essential characteristics of the trans- achieving the objectives associated with effects. They also identify trade-offs and disciplinary approach pursued by the the energy transition. Further expertise uncertainties associated with the imple- Project. Figure 1 shows the interplay of comes from the competence partners mentation. The interdisciplinary team of the work packages (WP) for the creation, (practitioners, works councils) and the WP11 has developed a comprehensive evaluation and trial of policy packages living labs. catalogue of criteria for this purpose. and (coupled) scenarios (roads for the ­Methodologically, a dynamic multi-crite- Roadsmap(s)) to achieve the desired In a second step, an interdependence ria assessment is used predominantly for objectives. analysis is used to identify side effects, this purpose. synergies and instances of incompatibil- ity for each of the policy packages and In the fourth step the researchers of quantify these as far as possible (WP1). WP12 feed the policy packages with This creates impact profiles for options their evaluated impact profiles, into the for measures in all of the fields of impact dialogue with practitioners (the “compe- that are necessary for the subsequent tence partners” and the “works council evaluation of the measures. Parallel to platform”) and the decision-makers from this, scenarios are created (roads for the politics, civil society and the economic Roadsmap) in which the policy packages sector. are integrated as drivers of the desired and respectively set targets.

10 Using the methodical approach of the This ENavi process can be seen in the These three topics of the first phase are living labs, the scientific results are sequence shown in Figure 2. In the first at different stages of implementation. tested in practice and the findings are project phase, until 2019, the concrete The overview of the turn of electricity fed back into the scientific discourse. procedure will be demonstrated in the policies, composed of many individual Knowledge from transformation pro- test runs for three main topics: mosaic pieces, mainly comprises model cesses that have already taken place in scenarios that are currently being fur- model regions will also be processed and 1. Transformation of the electricity ther developed into complex options for fed into the discussion. system including coupling with heat measures in transdisciplinary dialogue 2. Move to sustainable heating through with stakeholders. The systemic overview In the fifth and last step the results of the sector coupling, user integration and of the move to sustainable heating in- discursive dialogue and the practical flexible, smart control cludes the modelling of innovative forms tests are integrated as elements into a 3. Decarbonisation of transport with a of coupling heat and power, as well as larger Roadsmap. focus on multimodality, intermodality new developments for the production and alternative engines of green fuels and improved efficiency through digitalisation. Possible solutions are tested in living labs, such as public utility companies (GEODE), for their prac- tical suitability. The synopsis of the turn in traffic policies concentrates on the DISCORSE ROADSMAP ANASIS development of optimised policy pack- ages to promote sustainable mobility. To this end, literature analysis and expert Proposals for Policy Packages knowledge (group Delphi approach) were combined with the knowledge from the competence partners and a compre- hensive impact analysis was carried out. The analyses of the three main topics Stakeholder- Impact developed so far are described in detail Integration Profile in the following chapters.

Integration Impact in Roadsmap Assessment

INTEGRATION ASSESSMENT Figure 2: Methodological procedure

Through dialogue with parties from the field and with society, the necessary technologi- cal transformation of the energy transition is made considerably more feasible. Prof. Dr Frithjof Staiß, ZSW Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung

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3. THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: A TEST RUN FOR THE NAVIGATION SYSTEM

The transformation of the elec- The results are intended to inform deci- tricity system as first mosaic sion-makers about measures to phase The “mosaic” of the transformation of out coal and the effects of corresponding the electricity system is the first and paths. The added value compared to most developed main topic for the other studies is mostly to be found in concrete implementation of the navi- the resolute inclusion of social parties, gation approach. It analyses possible a multitude of scientific disciplines, and transformation paths in the electricity the European perspective. The results sector against the background of the are fed purposefully into political-social current political debate: the failure to discourse and summarised in a synthe- meet the 2020 climate targets and the sis report, which is available as a first establishment of a commission to draw draft. Scientists are already involved up proposals for phasing out coal. in intensive exchange with members of the “Coal Commission” and other decision-making bodies.

13 Key results and findings For the year 2030, however, there is of the scenarios and model- still considerable leeway: coal-fired based preliminary studies power generation varies between 44 and The model-based analyses, which also 150 TWh among the scenarios. Two include all other sectors (sector integra- factors have a reducing effect on the tion), show that achieving the climate climate gas: (a) Embedding the energy targets requires an almost complete transition into a more ambitious phase-out of coal by 2050 (below 50 European policy and (b) cost-efficient TWh). Only for Carbon Capture and distribution of the climate protection Methodological approach Storage (CCS) is this not the case; requirements among the various sectors, and current status of work however, this is viewed as unrealistic by in contrast to the existing sectoral The methodological approach is based a broad majority of stakeholders and is targets. The latter would mean an even on the ENavi process (see Figure 2) for therefore not being further pursued. more ambitious 2030 target for the which individual steps have been me- energy sector, equivalent to a faster exit thodically formulated to apply it to the from coal usage (see Figure 3). priority topics. The corresponding loop has currently been run through a total of one and a half times. At the beginning, a number of scenarios were developed around possible measures and the cor- responding paths were roughly explored Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 2030 in order to gain initial insights. These were the basis of discussion for the Sector Goals 2030 Cost-optimised Goals subsequent exchange with stakeholders. Based on feedback from stakeholders, 200 183 the selection and definition of scenarios and measures were revised and alterna- 160 tive or accompanying measures included. 143 148 145 140 131 To this end, more in-depth qualitative 133 analyses were carried out on legal 120 feasibility as well as qualitative impact 98 assessments along several dimensions. 80 The following is an example description of the first key results of these analyses, including stakeholder feedback. 40

0

Mt Power Economy / Traffic Industry Households others Trade Agriculture

Figure 3: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sector if the sector targets for 2030 are reached and the target is achieved at optimum cost

14 The preliminary studies continue to Electricity generation show the clear advantages of expanding 140 the exit from coal usage to a European level. The national measures envisaged 120 in Germany should therefore be coordinated – also in the face of current 100 discussions on cooperation with – with the measures of other European 80 countries (pioneering alliance on climate policy) and the EU. 60

40 Key results and findings for measures and paths 20 Legal analyses show that a regulatory TWh/a implementation through shutdown 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 times for power plants is constitutionally permissible, but possibly entails Coal KSP90 CO2-Pricing Coal (slow exit) obligations to pay compensation. Other Coal (quick exit) Natural Gas KSP90 CO2-Pricing options (for example emission budgets) Natural Gas (slow exit) Natural Gas (quick exit) do not have a comparable signalling effect or are subject to considerable legal uncertainty under EU law. Alternative Figure 4: Rebound effects (higher coal decommissioning through European If coal were to be phased out according and gas power generation) in the case industrial plant law was generally to regulatory law order to achieve the of a regulatory exit from coal usage viewed critically by stakeholders and sector targets in 2030, around 18–22 was, therefore, not considered further. GW of coal-fired power plants would still

A direct CO2 tax on CO2 emissions is be active on the market (43 GW at the permitted under Union law, but requires end of 2017), generating approximately A CO2 minimum price would also have a two-thirds majority amendment of the 110–136 TWh of coal-fired electricity. the advantages of reducing the above- Constitution. Indirectly, pricing mecha- The differences result from the various mentioned rebound effects and – nisms through adjustment of energy taxes boundaries with regard to district if the right choice is made – being more on the CO2 intensity of the respec­ tive­ heating and gas generation, which are cost-efficient. The latter is important energy sources could be implemented by currently still being consolidated among because an accompanying survey of reforming the harmonised energy tax law the models. However, on its own, a 11,000 households has shown that throughout Europe, without having to regulatory phase-out is not sufficient to although the acceptance of the energy change the Constitution. achieve the long-term climate goals, transition is still quite high, the willing- since the loss in generated electricity is ness to pay for the corresponding compensated by existing coal-fired measures has decreased. Higher power plants, additional gas-fired power electricity imports, which would be plants, or higher imports (rebound relevant in terms of securing supply, effects, see Figure 4). Additional mea- can be reduced by further increasing sures are therefore necessary, such as a the domestic expansion of renewable

minimum CO2 price or increased support energy at all levels (large-scale plants for the expansion of domestic renewable or intelligent decentralised systems). energies.

15 All forms of national measures are also Main results and findings Outlook associated with a waterbed effect within of the impact assessment A renewed exchange with stakeholders European emissions trading: Emissions The cumulative additional costs (not is planned by the end of the first phase reductions in Germany lead to increased including discounts) in electricity of the Project, which should lead to a emissions in other countries in the short generation to enable a rapid regulatory further consolidation of the results and to long term. This could be prevented by phase-out, compared to the sectoral an improvement in the robustness of the decommissioning 1 to 2 billion certi­ target scenario (achievement of the options for action. Within this framework, ficates (Osorio et al.). A coordinated sectoral climate protection plan goals, the measures developed will continue approach within the scope of a pioneer- see Figure 3), amount to 37 billion euros to be systematically evaluated. Topics ing alliance in favour of a CO2 price could (4 percent increase); within the overall arising from this exchange should then also mitigate this effect. energy system, the amount is 106 billion be included in the subsequent applica- euros. This corresponds to annual costs tion for the second project phase in the Discussions with stakeholders have (over 30 years) of approximately 31 sense of a co-design. The fundamental also shown that the macroeconomic or 90 euros per household. However, approach is to be continued and the in- and distribution effects of measures – induced electricity price effects on volvement of stakeholders implemented who are the winners and losers? – the markets and other cost components, even more resolutely. The guiding idea play an important role. The focus is on such as compensation payments or ad-­ in terms of content shall be the (almost) accompanying measures for the regions ditional subsidies for the further expan­- zero emissions society, which requires that are directly affected. Therefore, sion of domestic renewable ener­gies, a transformation of all sectors and a experience has been gathered within have not yet been taken into account. correspondingly integrated approach the scope of the model regions in order (sector integration). In this respect, more to find out how a necessary structural With regard to the macroeconomic intensive integration with the other change could be shaped in association effects, the results diverge greatly, Kopernikus Projects will also be sought, with the reduction of coal-fired power especially with regard to the ambitious for example through the development of generation. This is tested in practice in climate goals for the year 2050. The common scenarios, which could build on the Ensdorf living lab. reason for this is that various model the experience and results of this priority approaches are used, the corresponding topic. strengths and weaknesses of which are currently being investigated by a group of experts in order to ultimately obtain robust results.

Achieving the climate protection targets has a clear additional benefit: by reducing air pollution, around 3,000 (Europe) and 1,800 (Germany) prema- ture deaths per year will be avoided in 2030, and water use will be reduced by 50 to 70 percent. However, the expected land use, especially for bio- ­energy crops, could double by 2050.

16

The transformation of the electricity system is a key milestone in achieving Germany’s climate protection targets. However, a corresponding strategy must be embedded in Europe in order to be successful in the long term. Prof. Dr Ottmar Edenhofer, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

4. THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE HEAT SECTOR: SECTOR COUPLING, EFFICIENCY AND DIGITALISATION

A further mosaic on the way to a suc- There has also been little progress in cessful energy transition concerns the the expansion of the district heating heat sector. Heat supply in industry, infrastructure, because economic and commerce, trade, services, public build- regulatory framework conditions often ings, and households accounts for more make expansion unattractive. At the than half of the total end-user energy same time, there are too few efforts to consumption. In contrast to the electric- tackle the decarbonisation of the heating ity supply, renewable energy sources sector in a similar systematic fashion to have played only a minor role here the electricity sector. There is a lack of so far. The main focus in the heating effective parties who could advance in- sector is currently on improving energy novation in the heating sector across all efficiency, both in the thermal insulation user groups. The opportunities offered of buildings and in the conversion of by innovative decentralised approaches primary energy into the required energy are also often associated with heating services. The digitalisation of heating applications, but require appropriate services offers particular potential for im- investment decisions by a large number proving efficiency. The traditional instru- of small players. ments and incentives have so far failed to achieve the increases in efficiency that policymakers have targeted. Digital control systems conceptualised by the ENavi team, which are due to be tested in the future, can achieve significant improvements in efficiency.

18 Modelling the transition Another element of the systemic analysis are also of particular significance. to ­sustainable heating is the inclusion of the individual costs ENavi’s partners have already analysed The ENavi consortium has therefore cho- and benefits of decentralised heat the currently available technologies on sen heat supply as one of its three main applications as well as the use of storage the heating market, including intelligent topics. Practical experience from the tanks and their integration into the control systems, with regard to their living labs and case study clusters are overall system. Above all, relevant decen- technological and economic maturity integrated into the modelling of the local tralised electricity and heating systems and have characterised their ways of and national energy system. Using the (heat pumps, own use of PV-systems, functioning and their effects. evaluation criteria developed by ENavi, it battery storage, mini CHP systems), will then be examined which instruments including the new opportunities and pos- Soft factors, such as social scientific are best suited to increase the dissem- sibilities offered by digitalisation, will be and legal aspects, are also important ination of renewable heating technol- compared at the level of overall system inhibiting factors in the heat sector. ogies, including smart decentralised and individual parties. These now flow into the model-based electricity/heat generation and storage energy system analyses for the first time systems, and to improve efficiency. An important issue concerns invest- and allow a deeper analysis of inhibiting ment decisions: Which (monetary and factors, including derivation of solution A central element in the mosaic of the non-monetary) factors influence invest- strategies. transition sustainable heating is the ment decisions on the heating market? ­analysis of the sector-coupled energy Incentive systems have so far focused on system, in particular an investigation (mainly self-using) homeowners, prop- of the role of combined heat and power erty communities, whereas tenants are (CHP), heating pump systems, bidirec- insufficiently taken into account. There tional heat networks and the use of is also a lack of integration of suitable solar thermal energy. The focus is on multipliers (for example tradespeople system and user integration as well as and enterprises). ENavi checks current operational optimisation and market market mechanisms and existing instru- integration (for example P2P marketing) ments for their effectiveness with regard of the plants. to investment decisions by parties at various levels. Analyses of the heating market for buildings in comparison with developments in the industrial sector (process heat and efficiency measures) Composition of the heating technologies

OptSzenario2050 decreased heating networks

OptSzenario2050 decreased Flex heat pumps

0 20 40 60 80 100 The modelling results show that the implementation of the energy transition heating network Geothermics el. HP (air brine water) in the heat sector cannot be achieved without much stronger interlacing El./Gas Hybrid HP air H2 fuel cell CH4 fuel cell (HP heat pumps) with electricity generation. The Project partners concentrate on two important topics: 1.) the analysis of flexible opera- Figure 5: Impact of reduced flexibility of heat pumps and heating networks no the tion of heating technologies adapted by optimised composition of heat supply technologies in 2050 targeted intelligent control (for example heat pumps and heating networks, see Figure 5) and user integration, and 2.) the comparison of various power-to-X ap- plications in the heating sector, such as Institutional design: legal coupling and renewable energy sources. the potential of “green” gas, fed in from ­framework and regulation This includes detailed analyses of institu- renewable energy sources, for example The analysis of the existing legal frame- tional economics, including effectiveness hydrogen electrolysis and subsequent work and proposals for its further devel- and efficiency as well as distributional methane synthesisation. opment are topics of the ENavi studies effects and acceptance aspects, especial- from a legal perspective. The focus is on, ly with regard to digitalisation. The legal among other things, improving the com- analyses are accompanied by psycho- petitiveness of electricity in the heat logical and sociological studies on the sector and unifying the regulatory frame- perceived barriers and inhibiting factors work to facilitate investments in efficien- to investment decisions in the field of cy and heat generation through sectoral heat supply.

20 Practical knowledge Stadtwerke Rosenheim is working with As of the 2018/19 heating season, from the living labs the niche technology of wood gasifica- ENavi plans to investigate, in a total of The technical, legal and social scientific tion in combination with a combined two to three heating periods, how digital knowledge flows into the practical heat and power (CHP) plant that can control instruments in conjunction with implementation and/or operational contribute to system stability through economic subsidies can reduce heat trials of the proposals in actual fields flexible power and heat generation. consumption in homes. of application. The “SekOptima”-Tool, developed by Approximately 300 households in the Stadtwerke Bietigheim-Bissingen, for our practice partners enables intelligent Anhalt region are to be equipped with example, is developing an integrated market- and system-oriented, cross-­ intelligent room heating control systems neighbourhood concept for the CO2- sector control of heat production based for this purpose. The focus is on the free supply of the historic old town with on heat demand forecasts and is being question: Which behavioural incentives energy from the region, taking into tested in a district in . and which social regulation instruments account the requirements for protection motivate consumers? of monuments. In the case In the living lab in Berlin, heat supply study cluster, the energy value chain, in- concepts are being developed with close cluding heat supply, is being optimised; involvement of the electricity sector. This possible regional decarbonisation paths includes energy-efficient redevelopment are determined with the aid of models. In and modernisation as well as digitalisa- particular, this involves the development tion in the residential area. of suitable business models and effective incentive systems.

The energy efficiency of buildings is a central starting point for reduction of emis- sions. Regulation is challenging because of the large number of involved parties with heterogeneous interests. Nevertheless, in view of the long-term nature of investment decisions, a rapid adaptation of the legal framework is necessary, on the basis of well-founded interdisciplinary recommendations for action. Prof. Dr. Michael Rodi, Institut für Klimaschutz, Energie und Mobilität (IKEM)

21 5. THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR: THE INTER- AND TRANS- DISCIPLINARY APPROACH

The third mosaic deals with the decar- The inter- and transdisciplinary bonisation of transport as part of the approach to the design transformation of the overall energy of policy packages system towards climate neutrality and An inter- and transdisciplinary bundle of sustainability. So far, it has not been measures that takes up this challenge is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emis- central to the priority topic of transport. sions from transport to below the level

of 1990. On the contrary, CO2 emissions What are the essential characteristics here? have been rising significantly for some years now, and other emissions such as Problems and solution approaches nitrogen oxides have also recently come differ significantly from one transport to the fore. In order to counteract this, it sector to another. Cross-sector solutions is necessary to abandon the use of fossil for diverse areas of traffic, such as urban fuels in transport and to radically change passenger traffic, freight traffic or air our mobility behaviour. Changes in the traffic are only of limited use. Urban urban structure and the networking of passenger transport in core cities and rural areas will have to complement this densely populated surrounding areas in the long term. will be examined first of all. Further traffic areas in ENavi Phase II are to be investigated.

22 The approach aims to target promising For the transformation paths “Multi- In addition, there are studies on elec- transformation paths towards a climate- and Intermodality” and “Alternative tromobility on the basis of institutional friendly and sustainable energy system Engines”, a policy package consisting economics and legal foundations (for and the policy interventions and of core and accompanying measures example setting up the charging infra- measures­­­ associated with this. In urban will be developed using various methods: structure, controlled charging, quota passenger transport, the transformation literature evaluation, internal ENavi regulation for alternative engines, diesel paths “Multi- and Intermodality” and group Delphi, legal-economic modelling, ban). A further central feedback loop will “Alternative Engines” are regarded input from living labs and further be discourse on the evaluation profiles as promising for a change in transport inclusion of practical experience. of the policy packages with the practice policies – they are currently the focus partners and other stakeholders with of research work. It is particularly important for this com- regard to trade-offs and suitability for plex of priority topics that the practical practice. The inter- and transdisciplinary The perspective of systemically and experiential knowledge of economic approach builds bridges between the structured policy packages stands for and social parties is integrated into the ENavi disciplines and between science the idea that there is a need for development of the policy package at an and practice in the development of combined interventions and measures early stage and in several iterations. A transformation paths towards sustain- that aim to mitigate mutually unintend- first literature-based draft of the policy able mobility. ed effects and enhance benefits. This is package was modified and extended on the only way to realise promising the basis of a group Delphi workshop transformation paths towards a with ENavi internal experts. This was climate-friendly future. It is therefore followed by moderated science-practice a question of tailor-made policy dialogues with all three ENavi compe- packages that are capable of imple- tence partners. menting transformation paths that conform with the objectives. The introduction of access restrictions in The policy package “Increasing alterna- inner-city areas, for example in the form tive engines” aims to use technological of a socially acceptable city toll or in the means to achieve a climate-neutral form of speed 30 zones, increases the transport sector in 2050. The focus is on effect of calming traffic in these areas. the use of alternative engines in the mo- As further accompanying measures, torised traffic area. The measures are an the simplification of intermodal offers integration of various instruments and (expansion of digitalisation and sharing are applied at various regulatory levels.

concepts, integrated ticketing via one- The Core measure I “CO2 fleet limit value stop-shop solution, etc.) will be included of 60 g/km by 2030” is a regulatory

Key results: The two policy pack- in the analysis. Various measures can lead instrument. The CO2 limit values ages for Multi- and Intermodality also serve as a source of cross-financing for new cars are considered to have a and Alternative Engines for other measures, provided the legal particularly far-reaching effect compared The policy package “Strengthening requirements are met. A participatory with other measures, despite all criticism Multi- and Intermodality” (Figure 6) aims information campaign accompanies all of the calculation methods, as they to effect a change in mobility behaviour. measures to communicate municipal address all fleets of new cars and almost It consists of two core measures: Core offers clearly and positively and to reveal all manufacturers (with the exception of measure I “Promoting public transport” compensatory alternatives to any restric- very small fleets). includes increasing the share of public tions that are experienced. transport in the modal split (among other things, through expansion of public transport networks, and, also among other things, factors related to clocking, route network, additional lines), while Core measure II “Integrated land management” aims at a reduction Accompanying Measure I of motorised individual traffic (MIT) in Information Campaign urban areas through target-oriented (for example local and modular) land (re)use and urban planning. In order to strengthen the impact of the Core Measure I core measures and at the same time Promoting Public Transport mitigate unintended consequences, these are flanked by further regulatory, ­promotional and information measures. (for example cheaper pricing, Accompanying increase capacity) Accompanying Measure III Measure II Access Restrictions Intermodal Offers (for example Core Measure II (for example city toll) Integrated Land digitalisation, Management car-, bike- and other sharing) (for example change use of parking space, safe cycling / pedestrian paths) ­Figure 6: The policy package “Strengthening Multi- and Intermodality in urban areas through (low-cost) public transport and Promotion Policy For Information Regulatory integrated land management”

24 Merging the various specialist cultures, schools of thought and methods into a common product is the greatest challenge for ENavi – and its greatest strength at the same time. Prof. Dr Michèle Knodt, Technische Universität Darmstadt

This push measure forces manufacturers Both measures should increase the Outlook to advance technology developments attractiveness of alternative engines In order to gain a comprehensive and offer them on the market. Core mea- with additional economic advantages overview of the potential implications sure II “Introduction of a CO2 component and encourage users to consider them of the policy packages, a systematic for fossil fuels”, on the other hand, is an when buying. Two further accompanying impact assessment of the (intended and economic pull measure aimed primarily measures in the area of infrastructure unintended) effects and interactions of at increasing user costs for motorised in- (building charging infrastructure and the two central policy packages will be dividual traffic with conventional engines technological development “intelligent carried out in the second half of 2018 and fossil fuels. The aim is to privilege charging pillar”) and communication in accordance with the ENavi process alternative engines over conventional (user-specific information campaigns on (Figure 2), taking the expertise from engines. This is directly supported by electromobility) complement the core all ENavi work packages into account. various accompanying measures, such push and pull measures. as a reform of the vehicle tax in favour This collection, systematisation and of climate-friendly, fuel-efficient, light interpretation of quantitative and vehicles and a CO2-dependent parking qualitative data serves as a basis for the fee structure. creation of evaluation profiles, which are then fed into the evaluation process and the discursive process of consultation. Both steps form the basis for a possible redesign of the policy packages.

25 6. ENAVI’S VISIBLE CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE ENERGY TRANSITION

Practical insights with The results to date have been docu- long-term effect mented in numerous publications and The results which are already available revealed in presentations and at ENavi and those which are foreseeable for events. Many research results have the duration of the first phase provide already been successfully introduced reliable and practice based contributions into political discourse. to the implementation of the energy transition that exceed the conventional The inter- and transdisciplinary coopera- policy advice of experts: ENavi’s special tion beyond and above the work packag- ensures a cross-disciplinary es resulted during the first Project phase and transdisciplinary approach within in the three main topics. These are the scope of a transparent and acces- representative of specific issues in de- sible sequence of knowledge acquisi- carbonisation in the electricity, heat and tion, integration from evidence-based transport sectors. Political decisions will knowledge (mosaic stones) to consistent already be necessary in the mid-term, and dynamically oriented overviews, which the ENavi results provide effective evaluation of the policy packages and and scientific support to. development paths (Roadsmap) on this basis, discourse with decision-makers In the second phase, these main topics and practice partners, trials in living will be further elaborated and discussed labs and modification of the results for and further main topics will be added. In implementation in practical policies. particular, sector coupling and digitali­ The focus is on scientifically founded, sation processes will play a central role systemically networked strategies and here. interventions for the gradual implemen- tation of the energy transition that have been tried and tested in discourse and can, at the same time, be implement- ed in practice. The ENavi team is in an optimum position for these tasks, above all to create and evaluate solutions and recommendations for action within the context of a democratically constituted and pluralistically active society. 26 Across the Kopernikus Projects, first All in all, the related topics of social com- plans have emerged for concrete coop- patibility, justice, and fairness already eration between the Kopernikus Projects play a central role. Within the ENavi SynErgie and ENavi in order to obtain consortium, but also in cooperation with an assessment of the economic flexibility the three other Kopernikus Projects, the potential of sector coupling in industry. interactions between technical develop- Using its instruments within the context ment, organisational implementation, of a new topic of focus, ENavi could de- regulatory framework conditions, and rive important information for SynErgie. individual and social behaviour will On this basis, the SynErgie consortium increasingly be systematically analysed could simulate instances of economic in the future and, building on this, policy flexibility and their resulting costs. The packages and targeted Roadsmaps will results would then flow back into ENavi’s be developed, which will be evaluated scenarios. This could lead to an iterative and modified together with the practice process. partners and the decision-makers. In this way, ENavi not only makes an important contribution to academic research, but also to the practical implementation of the energy transition.