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Equity Valuation of Gerresheimer AG

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Equity Valuation of Gerresheimer AG Equity Valuation of Gerresheimer AG Martin Kreuzer Dissertation written under the supervision of José Carlos Tudela Martins Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of requirements for the MSc in International Management, at the Universidade Católica Portuguesa, June 4th, 2019. Recommendation: Buy Gerresheimer AG Current price as of May 8th, 2019: 69€ Healthcare / Pharma Price Target: 78€ Reuters: GXIG.DE Investment Summary Growing…. slowly, but surely Profile After rough years, the new CEO puts Gerresheimer back on closing price 69 € “growth-path” and presents a promising mid-term outlook. I Market Cap (€m) 2.434 EV (€m) 3.617 therefore issue a buy recommendation targeting a price of 78€, Shares outstanding (m) 31,4 which represents an upside potential of 15% compared to a Free float 100% th P/E 28x current share price of 69€ as of May 8 , 2019. When comparing EV/EBITDA 13x it to the price as of valuation date (63€) the upside potential Net Debt/EBITDA 47% Dividend Yield (2019) 1,4% amounts to 24%. Gerresheimer gets tailwind from stable Beta 1,1 industry and macroeconomic outlooks and will particularly profit from arising megatrends. Fianancials: PPG & P&D €m 2018 2019 2020 Strong year 2018 and even stronger mid-term guidance Revenue 1.355 1.397 1.435 EBITDA 274 269 279 2018 was strong with an adjusted EBITDA of 294 EURm and Net Income 139 81 83 sales of 1.433 EURm on a group basis. The valuation based on ROIC 10,5% 5,9% 5,9% FCF 126 63 68 its individual parts, PPG and P&G, and its newly acquired Advanced Technologies division, result in an EV of 3.617 Sum of the parts Valuation EURm. EBTIDA-margins average at 20% and sales forecast of Business Unit EV (€m) its core-business is projected at 2-3%, leaving space for positive EV Advanced Technologies 335 EV PPG & P&D 3.282 surprises. 2y EV/EBITDA 13,5x Trust in the new Management Share price development The new CEO radiates confidence as well as optimism and has 52-week high 79,9 14.09.2018 structured ideas on how to improve Gerresheimer´s operational 52-week low 51,3 04.01.2019 1-year change 1,13% March 18-19 performance, productivity and geographical footprint. Dietmar 5-year change 43,48% March 14-19 Siemssen, seems capable of transforming the Advanced Technology unit into a strong part of Gerresheimer and of 90 80 70 escaping the pressure on margins arising from the 60 50 40 competitiveness of the contract manufacturer business. 30 20 10 Gerresheimer presents an attractive investment in the light of 0 pharma growth, megatrends and promising projects arising from Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 May-15 May-14 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 2019 onwards. I Abstract This master thesis performs an equity valuation of Gerresheimer AG, a global manufacturer for the pharma and healthcare industry, and determines its ordinary share price as of 30.11.2018. The state-of-the-art valuation approaches are presented and the industry- and macroeconomic environment of Gerresheimer is analyzed. Afterwards, the equity value of Gerresheimer is determined using the sum of the parts DCF approach, combined with a relative valuation consisting of trading multiples. The Advanced Technologies division of Gerresheimer is valued based on the fair market value of the purchase price. The author issued a buy recommendation with a target price of 78€ as of Nov 30, 2018, with an upside potential of 24% compared to a share price of 63€ as of Nov 30, 2019. The results are subject to a sensitivity analysis, consisting of different scenarios and variations of Gerresheimer´s expected operating performance, completed with a Monte Carlo analysis. Finally, the methodologies and results are compared to the equity report provided by Credit Suisse, a leading multinational investment bank. Author: Martin Kreuzer Title: Equity Valuation of Gerresheimer AG Keywords: Equity Valuation, share price, Enterprise Value, Corporate Finance, Gerresheimer, Healthcare, Pharma, Pharmaceutical Packaging II Résumo A problemática da presente Tese de Mestrado consiste na avaliação do capital próprio da empresa Gerresheimer AG que, sendo um produtor a nível global, atua nas indústrias Farmacêutica e de Saúde. O preço das ações ordinárias da referida empresa é infra determinado à data de 30.11.2018. Distintas metodologias de avaliação são apresentadas, bem como uma análise da indústria e do ambiente macroeconómico em que se insere a Gerresheimer. Seguidamente, o valor do capital próprio da empresa é calculado através da combinação de duas abordagens: DCF (soma das partes) e avaliação relativa recorrendo a múltiplos de transação. O valor da divisão de Tecnologias Avançadas da Gerresheimer é determinado com base no justo valor de mercado do preço de aquisição. O autor apresenta uma recomendação de compra a um preço-alvo de 78€ à data de 30.11.2018, com um potencial de retorno de 24% comparativamente com o preço por ação de 63€ a 30 de novembro de 2018. Os resultados obtidos foram sujeitos a uma análise de sensibilidade relativa a diferentes cenários expectáveis da performance operacional da Gerresheimer, análise essa que é complementada com uma análise Monte Carlo. Finalmente, as metodologias e resultados são comparados ao relatório de capital próprio da Gerresheimer AG emitido pela Credit Suisse, um banco de investimentos líder multinacional. Autor: Martin Kreuzer Título: Equity Valuation of Gerresheimer AG Palavras-chave: Avaliação de Ações, Cotação, Valor da Empresa, Finanças Corporativas, Gerresheimer, Saúde, Farmacêutica, Embalagem Farmacêutica III Acknowledgements Firstly, I would like to thank my supervisor Tudela Martins, who was always available for guidance, support and valuable feedback. Furthermore, a special thanks goes to my family in Austria, who supported me during the journey; not only throughout my studies, but also in every part of my life. Lastly, I would like to thank my friends and thesis-colleagues, Denis Zimmerer, Marcin Rękawiczny and Fabian Arndt for the support and the great time at university. Also, a special thanks goes to my other colleagues for all the fun we had throughout this master’s program. IV List of Tables TABLE-1: MOST COMMONLY USED MULTIPLES ........................................................................................................ 3 TABLE-2: DISCOUNTING METHODS OF INTRINSIC-VALUATION-METHODOLOGIES (KOLLER ET AL., 2015) ............... 9 TABLE-3: CHANGES OF GERRESHEIMER STOCK, MDAX AND THE HEALTHCARE SECTOR (REUTERS, 2019)......... 20 TABLE-4: GERRESHEIMER´S MAIN SHAREHOLDER, (GERRESHEIMER, 2019) .......................................................... 21 TABLE-5: REVENUES BY DIVISION 2014-2018 (GERRESHEIMER, 2019) ................................................................. 23 TABLE-6: HISTORICAL COST DEVELOPMENT (GERRESHEIMER, 2019) .................................................................... 24 TABLE-7: PROFITABILITY FIGURES AS REPORTED (GERRESHEIMER, 2019) ............................................................ 24 TABLE-8: OVERVIEW D&A AND CAPEX; 2014-2018 (GERRESHEIMER, 2019) ....................................................... 26 TABLE-9: FINANCIAL POSITION 2014-2018 (GERRESHEIMER, 2019) ...................................................................... 27 TABLE-10: REVENUE DERIVATION P&D ................................................................................................................ 32 TABLE-11: REVENUE DERIVATION PPG ................................................................................................................. 33 TABLE-12: EBIT(DA) DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................................... 35 TABLE-13: CHANGE IN NWC ................................................................................................................................. 40 TABLE-14: FCFF DERIVATION CORE BUSINESS ...................................................................................................... 40 TABLE-15: CAPITAL STRUCTURE AT MARKET VALUES AS PER 30.11.2018 ............................................................ 42 TABLE-16: MARKET VALUE OF DEBT ..................................................................................................................... 45 TABLE-17: PV OF FREE-CASH-FLOW ..................................................................................................................... 46 TABLE-18: ENTERPRISE – EQUITY VALUE ............................................................................................................. 46 TABLE-19: WACC/TV-GROWTH SENSITIVITIES .................................................................................................... 48 TABLE-20: SENSITIVITIES ...................................................................................................................................... 49 TABLE-21: RELATIVE VALUATION OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................... 52 TABLE-22: ADJUSTMENTS TO ENTERPRISE VALUE ................................................................................................ 52 TABLE-23: SUMMARY INVESTMENT BANK COMPARISON ...................................................................................... 55 V List of Figures FIGURE-1: REAL GDP GROWTH FROM 2000-2023 AS OF OCTOBER 2018, (IMF, 2019B) ....................................... 12 FIGURE-2: INFLATION, 2000-2023 AS OF OCTOBER, 2018; (IMF, 2019A) .............................................................. 13 FIGURE-3:
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