From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling To: Interested Parties Subject: District Level Polling Shows Democrats Can Take House in 2012 Date: 10-26-2011

Over the last few weeks national polling has increasingly showed House Democrats recovering from their defeat in 2010 and taking the lead back on the generic House ballot. An October 10th Reuters survey showed Democrats ahead 48-40 and an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll the same day found Democrats with a 45-41 advantage.

The national numbers point to the possibility for Democrats to reclaim a majority in the House next year, and a series of polls conducted by PPP in 12 individual Congressional districts last week backs up what the national numbers are showing.

The 12 districts we polled are all in states where redistricting has already occurred- Arkansas, , Illinois, and Wisconsin. And in all 12 we found the same thing- voters would like to replace the Republican incumbent with someone else, and for the most part the new GOP House majority is proving to be extremely unpopular.

Here’s the rundown:

-In Arkansas’ 1st Congressional District, only 43% of voters would like to reelect Rick Crawford, while 48% would prefer someone else. Just 38% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 49% holding a negative one.

-In Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District, only 44% of voters would like to reelect Tim Griffin, while 49% would prefer someone else. Just 36% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 53% holding a negative one.

-In California’s 7th Congressional District, only 43% of voters would like to reelect , while 54% would prefer someone else. Just 36% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 53% holding a negative one.

-In California’s 10th Congressional District, only 38% of voters would like to reelect , while 49% would prefer someone else. This is the only district polled where House Republicans weren’t under water, with 43% of voters seeing them favorably and 41% negatively.

-In California’s 26th Congressional District, only 42% of voters would like to reelect , while 48% would prefer someone else. Just 40% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 47% holding a negative one.

-In California’s 36th Congressional District, only 43% of voters would like to reelect Mary Bono Mack, while 55% would prefer someone else. Just 34% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 54% holding a negative one.

-In California’s 52nd Congressional District, only 42% of voters would like to reelect , while 51% would prefer someone else. Just 39% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 53% holding a negative one.

-In Illinois’ 10th Congressional District, only 42% of voters would like to reelect Bob Dold, while 50% would prefer someone else. Just 35% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 54% holding a negative one.

-In Illinois’ 11th Congressional District, only 41% of voters would like to reelect Judy Biggert, while 52% would prefer someone else. Just 44% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 50% holding a negative one.

-In Illinois’ 13th Congressional District, only 33% of voters would like to reelect Tim Johnson, while 53% would prefer someone else. Just 30% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 53% holding a negative one.

-In Illinois’ 17th Congressional District, only 39% of voters would like to reelect Bobby Schilling, while 49% would prefer someone else. Just 32% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 54% holding a negative one.

-In Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District, only 43% of voters would like to reelect Sean Duffy, while 51% would prefer someone else. Just 39% have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, with 52% holding a negative one.

Taken as a whole these numbers show a wide playing field of opportunities for House Democrats in the post-redistricting landscape. Congressional Republicans have become very unpopular, very fast, across a very wide variety of districts and that’s going to make dozens of incumbent GOP members vulnerable for reelection next year. The reality at the district level matches the reality at the national level: Americans think John Boehner and the new majority have gone too far, and they’re looking for new candidates to support in 2012.

Public Policy Polling conducted these surveys on behalf of House Majority PAC between October 19th and 23rd: In AR-1 500 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.4%. In AR-2 500 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.4%. In CA-7 500 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.4%. In CA-10 500 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.4%. In CA-26 600 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.0%. In CA-36 500 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.4%. In CA-52 733 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-3.6%. In IL-10 600 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.0%. In IL-11 500 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.4%. In IL-13 500 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.4%. In IL-17 970 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-3.2%. In WI-7 1,866 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-2.3%.

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