Situation and outlook for the world ski & snowboard market – International or local ?
6th Snow & Mountain Tourism World Congress Andorra, April 13th, 2010
Laurent Vanat
LV/04/09/2015 Agenda
The state of the industry today
Market evolution since 2000
Impact of the crisis
Resorts in the international competition
Local or international ?
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 2 The state of the industry today
Laurent Vanat
LV/04/09/2015 Market geographics
80 countries 2000 resorts 6000 places of practice 6 million beds
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 4 World market
Number of ski resorts (with more than 4 lifts)
South East Asia Various 15% 2% Alps 37%
America 22%
Eastern Western Europe & Europe Central Asia 13% 11%
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 5 World market
Number of lifts
South East Asia Various 13% 1% America Alps
15% 43%
Eastern Europe & Western Central Asia Europe 13% 15%
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 6 World market
Number of skier visits
South East Asia Various 15% 1% Alps 45%
America 22%
Eastern Western Europe & Europe Central Asia 11% 6%
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 7 World market
Number of skiers
South East Various Alps Asia 2% 20% 21%
America Western 20% Europe Eastern 28% Europe & Central Asia 9% Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 8 Major players
Country Andorra Australia Austria Canada China Czech Republic Number of resorts 3 10 254 288 200 176 Number of major resorts 1 0 12 1 0 0 (>1 mio SV) Number of lifts 111 147 3'313 888 773 816 Skier visits (million) 2 2 52 19 5 3 Population (million) 0 21 8 33 1'330 10 Ranking in world tourism #N/A 40 12 15 4 36
Arrivals of international 2 6 22 17 53 7 tourists (million) Proportion of foreign skiers 95% 2% 66% 14% 5% 10% SV / inhabitant 1,4 0,1 2,1 0,5 0,0 0,3 SV / foreign visitor 1,1 0,0 1,6 0,2 0,0 0,0
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 9 Major players
Country Finland France Germany Italy Japan Korea, South Number of resorts 76 356 510 349 547 24 Number of major resorts 0 14 0 4 0 0 (>1 mio SV) Number of lifts 336 3'790 1'787 2'006 2'422 130 Skier visits (million) 3 54 13 27 41 6 Population (million) 5 64 82 58 127 48 Ranking in world tourism 50 1 9 5 28 35
Arrivals of international 3 79 25 43 8 7 tourists (million) Proportion of foreign skiers 8% 28% 10% 15% 3% 10% SV / inhabitant 0,5 0,6 0,1 0,4 0,3 0,1 SV / foreign visitor 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 10 Major players
Country Norway Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzer United -land States Number of resorts 213 91 34 233 240 481 Number of major resorts 0 0 1 1 7 7 (>1 mio SV) Number of lifts 667 489 356 834 2'284 3'122 Skier visits (million) 6 4 6 8 28 58 Population (million) 5 5 40 9 8 304 Ranking in world tourism 46 #N/A 3 38 27 2
Arrivals of international 4 2 57 5 9 58 tourists (million) Proportion of foreign skiers 8% 10% 10% 8% 50% 6% SV / inhabitant 1,2 0,6 0,1 0,8 1,8 0,2 SV / foreign visitor 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,1 1,6 0,1
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 11 Market evolution since 2000
Laurent Vanat
LV/04/09/2015 World evolution
Skier visits of major players (in million)
400 United States 350 Switzerland Sweden 300 Slovenia Czech Republic 250 New Zealand 200 Norway Japan
150 Italy France 100 Finland 50 Spain Korea, South 0 Canada Skier Skier Skier Skier Skier Skier Skier Skier Austria visits visits visits visits visits visits visits visits Australia 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- Andorra 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Germany Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 13 International comparison
Evolution of total lifts tickets turnover (EUR million)
1'400
1'200
1'000
800 Austria France 600 Switzerland 400
200 0
1989-901991-921993-941995-961997-981999-002001-022003-042005-062007-08
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 14 Mature major markets - A
Flattening or declining attendance – Historical home countries of the ski industry – Long ski tradition – Difficulties to maintain customer base
Challenge : erosion of attendance
Future trend : flat or near
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 15 Mature major markets - B
Still growing markets – Industry mostly developed in the 1970’s – High level of reinvestment over the last decade
Challenge : limits to the growth
Future : Attendance will tend to flatten
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 16 Intermediary markets
Northern Europe : – Quite mature stage, with same challenges as major markets – Norway still shows some growth
Pyreneans : – Mature stage – Higher weather sensitivity
Central Europe : – Germany, mature, weather sensitive – Slovakia – Slovenia Growth potential ?
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent – Czech Republic page 17 Developing markets
Bulgaria Armenia Azerbaijan Estonia Hungary Kazakhstan
Lithuania Poland Rumania Russia Ukraine
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent ... page 18 Focus - Japan
Decline of the industry after the 1990’s
Consolidation phase in present times
Number of ski areas Skier visits (million)
70 800 700 60 600 50 500 40 400 30 300 20 200 100 10 0 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 19 Focus - South Korea
Continuous growth since 1975
Industry focused on young people, offering a lot of fun
Number of ski areas Skier visits (million)
18 7 16 6 14 5 12 10 4 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent 2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09 page 20 Focus - China
Skiers 2000 200’000 2001 800’000 2002 2’000’000 2003 4’000’000 Expected in 2010 10’000’000 Market potential 27’000’000
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 21 Focus - Mongolia
First ski resort just opened near Ulaanbaatar, with state of the art equipment, including snowmaking and night ski.
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 22 Impact of the crisis
Laurent Vanat
LV/04/09/2015 International tourist arrivals - World -8.4% 10% (at 30.4.2009)
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Jul-08 Jul-09 Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08 Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09 Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09 Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent Source : UNWTO World Tourism Barometer page 24 Overnight stays
Chain hotels, variation in occupancy rate 12 month at 30.4.2009 Austria -8.8% France -4.6%
Germany -4.5% Italy -9.6% Spain -9.4% Sweden -2.5% Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent Source : HTR no 168/169 page 25 UK market
Skiers travelling abroad
2008/09 - 6 % 2007/08 2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04 2002/03 2001/02 2000/01 0 0.5 1 1.5
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent Million page 26 Europe - Alps
Skier visits (million)
180 160 140 120 100 80
60 + 6.1 % 40 20 0
2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 27 Europe – Other countries
Skier visits (million)
45 40 35 30 25 20
15 +10.4 % 10 5 0
2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 28 North America
Skier visits (million)
90 80 70 60 50 40
30 -5.9 % 20 10 0
2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 29 Asia - Pacific
Skier visits (million)
70 -6.3 % 60 50 40 30
20 10 0
2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 30 Effects of the crisis
2008/09 Season
North America / Asia- Pacific: Drop in attendance figures – Impact of the crisis on long distance travel – Psychological effect
Europe : Records of attendance in most countries – Early and reliable snow conditions – Favourable weather of the weekends and holidays Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 31 Expectations for 2010
Looking ahead, next season will be about ...
Who knows
offering deals
Fuel prices
The snow
The economy 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent According to a survey by SAM in summer 2009 page 32 Effects of the crisis
2009/10 Season
North America / Asia- Pacific: – Early openings – Still strong influence of the economy
Europe : – Early openings – Issue of snow and weather conditions most important
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 33 Resorts in the international competition
Laurent Vanat
LV/04/09/2015 Being international
Basic requirements – Size of the ski area – Modern lifts & slopes infrastructure – Numerous and standardised lodging facilities – After ski offer – Snow guarantee
Upscale requirements – International standards in lifts, hotels and other infrastructure – Quality food & beverage offer in the ski area – Shopping facilities – Wellness and leisure offer – Proximity to jet compatible airport
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 35 Extremes altitudes
4'000 3'500 3'000 2'500 2'000 1'500 1'000 500 0
Arosa Nendaz Saas Fee Savognin Lenzerheide Alpenarena SaanenmöserLes Diablerets Crans-Montana
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 36 Lodging capacities
Number of beds
18'000 16'000 14'000 12'000 10'000
8'000 6'000 4'000 2'000
0
Arosa
Les
Nendaz
Saas Fee
Savognin
Diablerets
Alpenarena
Lenzerheide Saanenmöser Hôtels, pensions Appartements Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 37 International clients
Share of visitors
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Foreigners 30% Swiss 20% 10%
0%
Arosa
Les
Nendaz
Crans-
Montana
Saas Fee
Savognin
Diablerets
Alpenarena
Lenzerheide Saanenmöser
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 38 Skier visits per bed
Skier visits per marketed bed (yearly)
Chamonix Villars Nendaz Grand Massif Courchevel-Méribel-Mottaret Verbier Les Deux-Alpes Serre-Chevallier Mégève Les Arcs L'Alpe d'Huez
Les Ménuires La Plagne Val d'Isère Tignes Zermatt Val Thorens Avoriaz Tremblant
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 39 International distribution
Number of major resorts (over 1 million yearly skier visits)
America Western 17% Europe
6%
Alps 77%
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 40 Major resorts
La Plagne SkiWelt Wilder Kaiser Les Arcs Courchevel-Méribel-Mottaret Kitzbuehl Ischgl/Samnaun Silvretta Saalbach Hinterglemm Leogang L'Alpe d'Huez Whistler Blackcomb Val Thorens Soelden Val Gardena Sestriere Via Lattea Zillertal 3000 -Mayrhofen Les Ménuires Grand Valira Tignes Flachau-Wagrein-Alpendorf Davos-Klosters Zermatt Breckenridge Serre-Chevallier Mammoth Vail Chamonix St. Moritz Adelboden-Lenk Planai-Hochwurzen-Hauser- Val d'Isère Les Deux-Alpes Flaine-Morillon-Samoens-Sixt Serfaus-Fiss-Ladis Zillertalarena St. Anton/St. Christoph/Stuben Jungfrauregion Alta Badia Keystone Verbier Avoriaz Gstaad-Region Åre Cortina d'Ampezzo Méribel In million skier visits Steamboat Killington Hochzillertal-Hochfuegen- Copper Mountain Sierra Nevada 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 41 Concentrations
Multi-site operators limited to France, Scandinavia and North America
Number of Total skier Total lifts resorts visits Booth Creek 4 2 million 50
Compagnie des Alpes 14 14 million 542 CNL Income Properties Inc 11 3 million 70 Intrawest 9 8 million 190 Labellemontagne 5 2 million 124 Skistar 8 4 million 226 Sofival 4 4 million 145 Vail Resorts 5 6 million 134
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 42 Failures
2 multi-sites operators bankrupted over the last years; resorts have been ceased to other operators
Intrawest in financial difficulties, since it was acquired by Fortress Private Equity
Number of Total skier Total resorts visits lifts American Skiing Company 7 4 million 131 Transmontagne 5 2 million 124
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 43 Being international ...
International resort profile
Source : SNTF Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 44 Getting international ...
Can a local resort become international ?
How can a resort switch from domestic client base to international ?
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 45 Local or international ?
Laurent Vanat
LV/04/09/2015 National skiers
Strength of national customer base of most of the big players. Foreign visitors concentrate on a few top international resorts.
Share of foreign visitors
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Domestic Foreigners 30% 20% 10%
0%
Italy Italy
Czech
Spain
China
Japan Japan
France France
Poland
Austria Austria
Finland
Canada Canada
Norway Ukraine
Sweden Sweden
Bulgaria Bulgaria
Andorra Slovakia
Slovenia
Hungary
Romania Romania Australia
Germany Germany
Switzerland Switzerland
New Zealand Zealand New South Korea, United States UnitedStates Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 47 National vs international
Share in the number of Share in the number of skier visits of foreign skiers is even reduced (as visitors is less than one travelling skiers tend to quarter of total attendance stay longer)
Internationals Internationals 14% 24%
Nationals Nationals 86% 76%
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 48 Inbound & outbound skiers
Share of the various Share of the various home destinations in inbound countries of outbound international skiers international skiers
East Europe America Asia Asia Alps 0% 2% 7% Various 5% America 3% 1% East 1% 6% 6%
Alps Europe 81% 88%
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 49 Skiers’ international flows
Mostly concentrated on intra-European flows
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 50 Skiers’ international flows
Overseas skiers : example
Repartition of foreign customers USA In % of total skier 2007/08 visits Skier visits Skiers Europe 1,90% 1'153'571 192'262 Central / South America 0,50% 303'571 50'595 Canada 2,00% 1'214'286 202'381 Australia / New Zealand 0,60% 364'286 60'714 Asia 0,10% 60'714 10'119 Middle East, Africa, others 0,50% 303'571 50'595 Total 5,60% 3'400'000 566'667 Source : NSAA 2007/08 Demographic study
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 51 Reality check
Weigh of international customers is limited for most ski destination countries
International catchments areas are limited – Markets size – Issue of transportation Travel time & cost
Saturation of airport at ski destinations
Overseas skiers are anecdotic minorities
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 52 Reality check
Outbound European markets are not increasing but will be spread over more destinations in the future – British customers Romania Slovakia
New markets are feeding themselves – Development of ski in Asia will feed Japan and South Korea
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 53 Domestic markets
Huge domestic potential in many major markets
Spain Ukraine Skiers Non skiers Korea, South United Kingdom
France Italy Germany Japan United States 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 54 Where to invest ?
Assumption (worldwide) Impact on the worldwide skier visits
Increase of 10% of international attendance +2%
Increase of 1% of the practice rate of national +12% skiers
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 55 Urban ski
Mostly promotion actions for ski resorts or suppliers – Salomon Winterwelt in Muchen Olympic Park – Europa Park, Rust, during winter holidays
– Geneva, la Treille and M-Park shopping centre
Slopes 10 – 200 meters, focused at children Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 56 Awareness & initiation
Québec « Mobile ski resort » to familiarise children with ski practice – Magic carpet – Mobile ski rental shop
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 57 International campaigns
Maybe more sexy, but less effects
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 58 The lessons of the crisis
In adverse economic conditions : – Decline of foreign customers – Increase of local customers – Better occupancy of second homes – More skiers on a daily basis
– Decrease of demand for hospitality
Strength of local customer base, more resilient
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 59 Conclusion
Little streams make big rivers
There is not one magic solution
Any effort to get skiers accounts – Efforts on national – Efforts on international
No way shall be neglected ...
... and by excellence the development of national customers !
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 60 Further reference
www.vanat.ch – Page « Publications »
Laurent VanatVanat Laurent Laurent page 61
Laurent Vanat 19, Margelle CH - 1224 Genève Tel / fax / messagerie : +4122 349 8440 Courriel : [email protected] Internet : www.vanat.ch
LaurentLaurent VanatVanat
LV/04/09/2015