POLLS, PROJECTIONS, PUNDITS AND PRESTIDIGITATION

Barry Kay

Only once in 14 elections since 1962 has a party leading in the polls prior to an election call actually increased its popularity on election day — that exception being Pierre Trudeau’s 1974 “Zap! You’re frozen” campaign against wage and price controls. The 2004 campaign was no exception to the rule, but the Liberals’ decline of two points between the dropping of the writs on May 23 and the June 28 vote does not reflect the roller-coaster ride of the campaign. The Conservatives were leading and trending up in the week ending June 18, but were hurt by Stephen Harper’s unwise musings about a majority government, as well a series of “backbench bimbo eruptions” that validated the distorted claims of Liberal attack ads. Barry Kay, whose “poll of polls” and seat projections have become a regular feature of Canadian campaigns, takes a morning-after look at the polls and the projections. He notably examines “the deleterious impact of the Green Party upon the NDP” and suggests that the “parallel to Ralph Nader’s influence on the Florida result during the 2000 US presidential election is difficult to miss.”

Il n’est arrivé qu’une fois depuis 1962 qu’un parti en tête dans les sondages avant une élection ait accru sa popularité au moment du vote, cette exception étant l’élection de 1974, alors que Pierre Trudeau avait fait campagne contre le contrôle des salaires et des prix. La campagne de 2004, elle, n’a pas fait exception, mais la chute de deux points dans la cote des Libéraux entre l’annonce des élections le 23 mai et le vote lui- même, le 28 juin, ne rend pas compte de la course en dents de scie qui s’est produite dans l’intervalle. Les Conservateurs étaient en avance et semblaient devoir poursuivre cette tendance à la hausse durant la semaine du 18 juin, mais ils ont été victimes des propos malavisés de Stephen Harper quant à la possibilité de former un gouvernement majoritaire, ainsi que d’une série de déclarations intempestives de députés d’arrière-ban qui ont servi à valider les allégations exagérées que renfermait la propagande des Libéraux. Barry Kay, dont le « sondage des sondages » et les projections du nombre de sièges attribués à chaque parti sont devenus un élément bien connu des campagnes électorales au Canada, jette un coup d’œil sur les sondages et les projections. Il examine notamment ce qu’il considère comme l’impact délétère du Parti vert sur le NDP et affirme qu’il est difficile de ne pas tracer un parallèle entre cet aspect de la campagne et l’influence de Ralph Nader sur les résultats de l’élection présidentielle américaine de 2000 en Floride.

ver more than four decades dating back to 1962, it exceptional case was in 1974, a campaign focused upon the has been a given that parties leading in public Conservative plan to combat inflation with wage and price O opinion at the outset of a federal election cam- controls, which led to Pierre Trudeau’s memorable paign, have declined in support by voting day. This time put-down of Robert Stanfield’s proposal “Zap, you’re frame happens to coincide with a period when polls evolved frozen!” There was one other election where the party lead- beyond a novelty, into an important feature of Canadian ing at the outset finished with the same support level, the election campaigns. Table 1 illustrates that during the four- Mulroney Conservatives in l988. However, that contest, teen federal elections inclusive of 2004, in only one instance fought on free trade, was characterized by an early decline did the party leading in popular support prior to the elec- in Tory support, only to see the Conservatives bounce back tion call actually improve its standing on election day. That at the end.

70 OPTIONS POLITIQUES SEPTEMBRE 2004 Polls, projections, pundits and prestidigitation

As shown in the table, 2004 follows The estimate of 130 Liberal seats is are highlighted in