Baseline Report National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development for

February 2011 PUBLISHING INFORMATION

Editor   Professor Sir David King FRS

Authors  Bernis Byamukama [email protected] Economics, Trade and Industry Dr Christian Carey [email protected] Transport Cities and the Built Environment Megan Cole [email protected] Energy Mining Jillian Dyszynski [email protected] Climate Policy Dr Mathew Warnest [email protected] Agriculture Land Water

Expert Advisors Dr Mick Blowfield (Industry and Commerce)     Dr Nick Eyre (Energy)     Dr David Frame (Climate Centre)     Dr Rajat Gupta (Built Environment)     Dr Claire Heernan (Agriculture)     Dr Oliver Inderwildi (Transport)     Dr Mark New (Water)     Dr Geo Pearce (Water)     Professor John Pickett (Agriculture)     Ranjita Rajan (Management and enterprise)     Dr Richard Washington (Climate Centre)

Photography by Megan Cole

“The National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development for Rwanda, including the production of this report, is funded by the Climate & Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) www.cdkn.org. Views expressed in this document are those of the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment and the Government of Rwanda and may not be shared by CDKN or partner organisations.”

University of Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment Hayes House 75 George Street Oxford OX1 2BQ United Kingdom

DOI 10.4210/SSEE.PBS.2011.0002ISSN (Print) 2042-4035 ISSN (Online) 2042-4043

i Baseline Report  “The environment is our life-blood; indeed the real surprise is not that ministries of finance are now talking to ministries of environment – but that it has actually taken this long. Even when we look beyond agriculture, tourism, mineral wealth and fisheries, our economies depend critically on good environmental stewardship.” His Excellency , President of Rwanda 2009

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment ii iii Baseline Report THE SMITH SCHOOL VIEW

“Our climate is changing and we are causing it to change. While developed countries struggle to reach agreement, many leaders in the developing world are striding forward, meeting challenging goals in order to reduce the impact on their nations, while continuing development. Rwanda is one such country. Under the leadership of His Excellency Paul Kagame, Rwanda has made remarkable progress in economic development. With the assistance of the Climate & Development Knowledge Network and the Department for International Development, through the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, significant steps will be made towards sustainable and robust development strategies. This can only be possible through the in-depth and continuing support of the Government of Rwanda, whose efforts will ensure this project succeeds in its aims. This baseline report is the first stage in a unique opportunity to create a low-carbon, climate-resilient development plan, taking Rwanda into a sustainable, and above all a prosperous, mid- century as a middle income economy.” Professor Sir David King FRS Oxford 2011

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment iv v Baseline Report VIEW FROM RWANDA

“The elaboration of a Climate Change and Low Carbon Development Strategy marks a significant turning point in the development paradigm Rwanda is contemplating. Sustainable development will indeed be effective only if articulated by climate resilient and low carbon . The extensive appraisal reflected in this baseline report provides appropriate grounds to effect a new planning framework that will proactively take into account recurrent shocks relevant to the impacts of global climate change. ” Honourable Minister Stanislas Kamanzi 2011

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment vi vii Baseline Report TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Smith School View  iv View from Rwanda vi Table of Contents viii Executive Summary x  1. Introduction 1 2. Climate Policy 9 3. Economy, Trade and Industry 19 4. Energy 25 5. Mining 35 6. Transport 41 7. Cities and the Built Environment 49 8. Agriculture 55 9. Land 63 10.Water 71 11.Forestry 79 12.Conclusion 85

Acknowledgements 87 References 89 Acronyms and Abbreviations 95  

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment viii “The danger posed by war to all of humanity - and to our planet - is at least matched by the climate crisis and global warming. I believe that the world has reached a critical stage in its efforts to exercise responsible environmental stewardship.”

Ban Ki-moon UN Secretary General

ix Baseline Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Baseline Report is the first step in the Agriculture, the source of employment for process of developing a National Strategy 80% of the population, is most at risk. on Climate Change and Low Carbon Rwanda is currently dependent on Development for Rwanda. It provides a hydropower for 50% of its electricity, snapshot of the country today and the making it vulnerable to changes in rainfall. planned initiatives that will take it forward, Regional planning of hydropower plants placing it within the context of climate has based maximum capacity on current change. Though many opportunities are river flows, which are likely to change. As highlighted, the aim of the report is to temperatures rise, diseases will spread provide the foundation for the next step posing health risks to the predominantly where detailed analysis will take place and poor population. Planning for the future in recommendations will be made. Rwanda needs to take all these changes Rwanda is a small, hilly, landlocked into account to become climate-resilient. country in East Africa with the highest The root cause of global warming, the population density in Africa. It has strong burning of fossil fuels, needs to be leadership and good governance, which addressed on a global scale. Rwanda, as have enabled it to develop rapidly: it has a Least Developed Country (LDC), is not experienced an average GDP growth rate required to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) of 8.5% in the past five years. Rwanda’s emissions and currently is a net carbon collective vision for development is sink thanks to forest sequestration. embodied in Vision 2020, which seeks to However, GHG emissions are expected to transform the country from a subsistence rise as the country’s economy grows. agriculture economy to a knowledge- Rwanda is currently dependent on oil based middle income economy by 2020. imports for transport and 45% of electricity Export revenues are dominated by generation. Moving to a low carbon minerals, and while services and economy would reduce vulnerability to oil agriculture contribute 81% of GDP. price spikes and improve energy security. Tourism has recently become the largest As an LDC, Rwanda has priority access to foreign exchange earner. As the population international climate finance: developing a grows and urbanisation and National Strategy on Climate Change and industrialisation increase, more and more Low Carbon Development will facilitate pressure is placed on the natural that process. resources in Rwanda, notably land, water This Baseline Report addresses various and forests. Limited infrastructure, sectors of the economy individually for the including the transport network, electricity specific purpose of gaining deeper insight. grid and water pipelines, hinders trade and But sectoral integration is crucial in the the provision of basic amenities. development of a national strategy, and Many initiatives are under way in Rwanda this will be a key component of the next to address these challenges but there is a stage. The project recognises the new challenge that needs to be addressed challenges of low capacity and funding. It – that of climate change due to global aims to build local capacity, especially in warming. Rwanda is highly vulnerable to the areas of climate finance and climate the impacts of climate change although data collection and analysis, and will lack of sufficient data means that regional contribute to the establishment of a climate change projections are uncertain. Climate Centre.

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment x “We must use time wisely and forever realise that the time is always ripe to do right.”

Nelson Mandela

xi Baseline Report 1. INTRODUCTION

Climate change poses the greatest global - Contribute to the implementation of a challenge of our day. It requires us to Climate Centre in Rwanda to improve reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and climate data and models for the region to learn to adapt to new climate-related Many developing countries have produced risks. For developing countries, climate change strategies or action plans, alleviation and human development have including Bangladesh, and Zambia. become an even greater challenge. Oil Low carbon development studies are less importers like Rwanda will be exposed to common, however, with early movers price shocks, threatening energy security being Brazil, , , Indonesia, and economic growth. Decoupling a Mexico, , , Guyana, developing economy from fossil fuels – low Costa Rica and South Korea. The studies carbon development – and climate- identify greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation proofing key economic sectors is a priority potential, assess the costs and benefits of for stable growth. The Government of lower carbon growth pathways, examine Rwanda has recognised this and is financing sources and mechanisms to committed to addressing climate change address the additional costs, characterise with the same determination that it has appropriate policy support, and identify shown towards socio-economic projects and programmes that contribute development. Rwanda’s development to growth and development goals while vision is embodied in Vision 2020 which curbing GHG emissions[2]. Rwanda has aims to transform the country from a Least the opportunity to join this group of early Developed Country (LDC) to a middle- movers on low carbon development but income economy, with an income of 900 would be the first LDC to do so. This will USD per capita by 2020[1] . With real GDP position the country well to be eligible for growth rates of 8.5% in the past five years, international climate finance for mitigation Rwanda is on track to meet the Vision and adaptation. Key success factors in 2020 targets. However, this economic developing low carbon development growth has implications for Rwanda’s strategies to date have been[2]: impact on the environment, and it is vulnerable to climate impacts and oil price - Senior government leadership shocks. In consequence, the Government - Robust data and scientific and of Rwanda (GoR) has commissioned the economic analysis development of a National Climate - Stakeholder engagement Change and Low Carbon Development - Consensus building around priority Strategy for Rwanda. The strategy aims sectors to: Rwanda has started the process well, with - Develop a roadmap for future climate full support from His Excellency President resilient and low carbon economic Kagame and his Cabinet. Stakeholders in growth in Rwanda government, donor agencies, NGOs, - Build on existing climate change academia and the private sector have initiatives and opportunities that are been involved in the scoping phase of this currently being undertaken in relative project. This Baseline Report is a snapshot isolation in Rwanda of Rwanda, taken during a three-week - Provide a framework around which period in November and December 2010 detailed sectoral studies and by the Smith School of Enterprise and implementation plans can be built Environment (SSEE) research team, and - Develop local capacity in sourcing, aims to define the current and ongoing applying for and obtaining international projects. It was reviewed by the SSEE climate funding team of expert advisors, the government steering committee, and the funders,

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 1 Figure 1.1:  Major features of Rwanda and its locality[3] CDKN and DFID. Owing to the rapid the Congo in the west. The geology of nature of development in Rwanda some of Rwanda is dominated by the Kibaran Belt, the information included in this study will which also underlies parts of , already be out of date; this illustrates the , , DRC and Angola and is challenge of producing a national known to be widely mineralised, hosting framework in such a dynamic deposits of tin, , , gold and environment. The objectives of this report semi-precious stones. With just over 10 are twofold: to refresh and expand the million people, Rwanda has the highest research team’s knowledge of Rwanda; population density in Africa at 370 people and to provide the foundation for the per square kilometre; the population is second stage of the project. The second growing at 2.8% per year (the global stage will involve detailed analysis of average is 1.16%) and is expected to current and potential opportunities and is reach 13 million by 2020 (figure 1.2)[4]. This explained in more detail in the final chapter is mostly due to a high birth rate (5.41) but of this report. also to incoming refugees and the Rwanda Today returning diaspora. The population is young, with over 41% under the age of 14, Rwanda is a small, landlocked country in but life expectancy is low (50.1 years equatorial East Africa covering 26,338 compared to a global average of 68.9 km2, bordering the Democratic Republic of years)[5]. Only 20% of the population lives Congo (DRC), Burundi, Uganda and in urban areas, and 44% of those are in Tanzania (figure 1.1). Rwanda is known as the capital city, Kigali. Rwanda was the “land of a thousand hills” as its terrain granted the Habitat Scroll is characterised by steep slopes and of Honour Award in 2008 for its urban green hills, upon which its predominantly projects improving the local environment, rural population survive on subsistence access to amenities and quality of life in agriculture. About 45% of land in Rwanda Kigali. It is one of the cleanest and safest is arable, with an estimated 22% forested cities in Africa. and 18% pastureland. Thanks to its Rwanda is a developing country with 56% altitude (950 to 4,500m ASL), Rwanda of its population living below the poverty enjoys a temperate climate and has a line. It has a bimodal rainy season with mean annual (HDI) of 0.385, ranking 152nd out of 167 rainfall of 1,028mm. This drains into two nations[6]. It has however achieved major river basins, the Nile in the east and

2 Baseline Report Figure 1.2:  Rwandan Population[4] significant economic growth in the past supply, transport systems and energy five years, and currently has a per capita supply all have significant regional impacts income of 560 USD, up from 200 USD in and cross-border collaborations are in 2000 when Vision 2020 was drafted. The place to ensure the success of vision is to transform Rwanda from a development strategies. subsistence agriculture economy to a knowledge-based society, with high levels Climate and Meteorology of savings and private investment, thereby Rwanda is located astride two key climate reducing the country’s dependence on regions, East Africa and Central Africa, external aid. The Economic Development with contrasting controls and drivers on and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) climate. As a result the region is difficult to is a framework for the implementation of simulate in climate models, and climate Vision 2020 in the medium term[7], from projections are uncertain. Climate model 2008 to 2012. It aims to guide the actions scenarios show future increases in mean of the GoR, mobilise resources from annual temperature of up to 3.25°C for the donors and involve the private sector and region by the end of the century. Changes civil society. EDPRS addresses four cross- in rainfall are more uncertain, though most cutting issues, namely gender, social of the models show that rainfall will inclusion, HIV/Aids and the environment. increase. These projections are based on Rwanda’s commitment to its vision is downscaling of global climate models to a shown by its parliament, more than half of single station in Rwanda (Kigali Airport); whom are women. A new EDPRS II will be limited regional climate modelling has been formulated in 2012. carried out that captures Rwanda’s unique Along with Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi and regional setting and climatology. For Uganda, Rwanda is part of the East example, El Niño and La Niña phenomena African Community (EAC), which are associated with heavy rains and severe encourages the free movement of goods, dry conditions respectively, with impacts services, labour and capital and will varying considerably over space and time. promote private sector development in The intensification and relaxation of Rwanda. Attention to the sensitivity of synoptic systems determine the sources regional relationships, particularly of moisture injection into the country, along concerning the exploitation of resources, is with movement of the Inter Tropical key in ensuring regional security. Water Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Other factors

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 3 Figure 1.3:  Variation of annual average temperature and rainfall at Kigali airport Station[8].

listed by the Rwandan Meteorological meteorological observations, with some Service as influencing the country’s rainfall records going back to the 1900s. This are[8]: historical data has yet to be added to - Subtropical anticyclones Rwanda’s digital data bank, and there is - Congo air mass opportunity for liaison with the Belgian - Inter-seasonal wave variation Technical Corporation (BTC) and - The Mascarene, Azores, St. Helena Embassy to investigate colonial era data. and Arabian high-pressure systems Between 1994 and 2009 there are - Regional topography, large water complete records only from the Kigali bodies (e.g. Lake Kivu), and large Airport station. Currently there are 13 forests synoptic stations and five automatic stations, which provide data at hourly Historical records show that there has intervals, along with 26 rainfall stations and been an overall rise in temperature and 38 more planned for installation. In reductions in annual rainfall[8] (figure 1.3). A addition to these stations, the Ministry of shift in the timing of rainfall seasons is Agriculture (MINAGRI) operates 88 rainfall being experienced in some regions, with stations for agro-meteorological purposes. significant impacts on rain-fed agriculture. For the last five years, there are good Climate Centre three-hourly, daily and monthly records of their observations. Observed climate data is essential for climate model development, and - Improved infrastructure and information particularly given the small size and unique are also important for the prevention and location of Rwanda - a sound early warning systems (EWS) that Rwanda is developing. This will in turn inform observational network is vital for downscaling climate forecasts and climate adaptation and future investment planning, change projections. This is required to as well as address root causes of integrate climate change into economic vulnerability. The establishment of a development planning. Prior to the 1994 Climate Centre will be an important step in this process and will be a focus of the next conflict, over 100 stations provided regular

4 Baseline Report stage of this project. This will be with projected socioeconomic supported by Meteo Rwanda’s recent development and demographic change. designation as an autonomous agency, no The physical impacts and economic costs longer under the auspices of the Ministry of current climate variability and events in of Infrastructure (MININFRA). Rwanda are already very significant. The Adaptation country has high land use pressures coupled with erosion from steep slopes, Findings from the Economics of Climate along with floods and rains, and in some Change in Rwanda[9] study highlight the eastern regions there are desertification need for adaptation and disaster trends due to droughts. Extreme events prevention. The study shows that existing have had dramatic impacts across the key climate variability has significant economic economic sectors of agriculture, costs in Rwanda. Periodic floods and infrastructure and health. Factors droughts already cause major socio- contributing to Rwanda’s underlying economic impacts and constitute an vulnerability include: external shock that reduces economic growth. Major floods occurred in 1997, - High levels of poverty and low adaptive 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, when heavy capacity rainfall resulted in infrastructure damage, - High population density and shrinking fatalities and injuries, landslides, loss and land availability damage to agricultural crops, soil erosion - Reliance on rain-fed and low input and environmental degradation. In some agriculture for 90% of households regions of the country, particularly in the - Reliance on biomass energy east, periodic droughts (for example in - Severe land and resource degradation 1999/2000 and 2005/6) have undermined The GoR has responded to the unplanned agricultural production. Rwanda therefore environmental degradation with a number has a current adaptation deficit, and is not of projects, including a national tree- adequately prepared for existing climate planting scheme and wetland restoration, risks. To plan robustly for adaptation to for which Rwanda won the Green Globe future climate change, it will be critical to Award in 2010. take this deficit into consideration, along

Table 1.1: Greenhouse gas emissions in 2005 [11]

CO2 CH4 N2O NOx CO NMVOCs SOx CO2 eq Greenhouse Gas Sources (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) Total National 531 71 10 14 2,327 42 18 5010.4 Energy (fuel combustion) 380 20 0 14 361 42 18 891.3 Energy Industries 45 - 0 0 0 0 0 - (petroleum) Manufacturing industries 28 - 0 0 0 0 1 - and construction Transport 274 - 0 7 17 3 0 - Other (residential - biomass) 34 20 0 7 344 38 17 - Industrial processes (cement 151 - - 0 0 0 0 150.5 and lime production) Agriculture - 49 10 0 9 0 0 3909.9 Land-use change and 0 0 0 0 1,957 0 0 10.9 forestry (LULUCF) Waste (disposal and handling) 3 - 0 0 0 0 47.25

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 5 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) -N2O from agricultural soils (57%) Emissions -CH4 from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock (19%) Rwanda has one of the lowest emissions -CH4 from residential energy from fuel per capita in the world, estimated at 0.65 combustion (8%) tonnes CO2/person (including land use -CO2 from road vehicles (5%) change), compared to a global average of The SNC recognises that there are 4.63 tonnes CO 2/person. In January 2010 uncertainties in the GHG emissions due to the GoR submitted its Second National inadequate representation, lack of basic Communication (SNC) to the UNFCCC data and application of emissions factors with a GHG emissions inventory for the for different conditions. The GoR has reference year, 2005 (Table 1.1). The recognised the need for the National majority of GHG emissions were CO2 Institute for Statistics to include climate (87%) at 531Gg, dominated by transport change and low carbon-related questions (52%) and industrial processes (28.5%). in the data collection process to improve Total CO sequestration was 9,000Gg and 2 confidence in the figures. land use change (conversion of forests and grasslands) was -545Gg making GHG emissions have shown an upward trend, from 2,896.34Gg in 2003 to Rwanda a net carbon sink. CO2 emissions from biomass and bunkers (aviation) were 5,793.45Gg in 2006, and have continued 7,228Gg and 17Gg respectively but are to increase as Rwanda’s economy has memo items only. The aggregate grown over recent years. In 2009 a Rapid Assessment of a National Energy and Low emissions or total CO2 equivalent, used for [11] measuring global warming potential, Carbon Path reported emissions amounted to 5,010.4Gg in 2005, projections for key sectors, as shown in dominated by agriculture (78%) and figure 1.3; these indicate that Rwanda’s emissions will increase by 50% by 2020 energy (18%). Nitrous oxide (N2O) and and that it will become a nett emitter in methane (CH4) are the most potent greenhouse gases contributing 62% and 2012. Owing to the rapid development in 26% of aggregated emissions. Four key the energy and other sectors in Rwanda, sources contribute 91% of aggregate these projections need to be revisited. emissions:

Figure 1.3:  GHG emissions and sinks of Rwanda[11]

6 Baseline Report Figure 1.4:  Oil price and inflation rate[12]

Oil Reliance - Investment in alternative energy carriers, technologies, demand-side Rwanda imports all of its oil requirements measures, industry etc. of a magnitude for energy generation and transport, at a equivalent to potential losses cost of 210 million USD (2009 dollars) associated with forecasted high oil [12] which was 4.7% of GDP in 2008 . prices is sufficient to reduce oil Rwanda’s heavy reliance on imported oil dependency to acceptable levels. puts it at risk from oil price spikes, which - Postponing investment in measures directly impact GDP. An example of this that decouple oil demand from was the inflation spike from 5% to 20% in economic growth will increase the 2008 (figure 1.4). This was directly challenge of doing so in the future. attributed to the increasing global oil price, - International Climate Financing with inflation reducing to 2007 levels once Mechanisms the oil price crashed. Further development A wide-range of climate financing reliant on fossil fuels will only make Rwanda’s economy more susceptible to opportunities currently exists, or is under such price shocks. For a robust development, to address adaptation and development strategy, Rwanda’s economy mitigation in developing countries such as Rwanda. Mitigation financing through must be decoupled from oil. emissions trading schemes is the most A country’s vulnerability to oil prices is a advanced and well-known operational function of the degree to which it relies on mechanism; in 2008 the global market imported oil and its oil intensity, or the was valued at over 119 billion USD. amount of oil consumed per unit of Compliance markets, represented by the economic output. For example, using Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 2010 oil prices, a hypothetical oil price rise under the UNFCCC, consistently make up of 10% would result in GDP losses of 99% of the total carbon market, with the approximately 1.5% in Rwanda, compared non-compliance or Voluntary Carbon to 0.55% in the USA. Owen and King Market (VCM) remaining very small. CDM [12] (2010) suggest the following key points : facilitates mitigation by developed - The cumulative cost of oil (direct and countries that purchase carbon credits indirect) to the Rwandan economy through projects in developing countries. could be about 30% of GDP over the Rwanda is currently facilitating period form 2010 to 2030. development and registration of CDM and, to a lesser extent, VCM projects, focusing

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 7 on energy and forestry (afforestation and developing countries. This presents an reforestation), with some (costly) potential opportunity to address the financial for waste sectors. Adaptation financing is barriers facing Rwanda’s climate action. less straightforward owing to the Outcomes of the Cancun Agreement that challenges behind adaptation as a are particularly relevant for Rwanda are concept and the delayed nature of summarised in table 1.2. Rwanda’s efforts negotiations. A wide array of funds have in forest conservation and prevention of emerged to help “fill the gap”, with degradation from communities and particular focus on developing countries, agriculturalists would likely qualify for least developed countries (LDCs) and support under REDD+ financing. small island developing states (SIDS). Developing countries have been requested Rwanda is receiving adaptation funding to prepare strategies, develop reference from a number of these sources (e.g. levels and create monitoring systems for LDCF). The official UNFCCC Adaptation REDD+ and should form part of Rwanda’s Fund (AF) released its first funds to strategy development. It is important to Senegal in 2010. Rwanda applied to note that the REDD+ currently omits non- register its National Implementing Entity forest sustainable land management such (NIE) in late 2010. Rwanda’s climate as agriculture and soil carbon change strategy may benefit from conservation, which require a separate designating adaptation investment plans mechanism. This is highly relevant to by key themes identified by the AF as a Rwanda, given its dependence on method of shaping priorities and efficiently agriculture, and has significant adaptation advancing funding applications across key co-benefits. There are a number of key sectors and ministries. issues regarding this funding strategy In the follow-up to the Copenhagen which are important considerations for Accord in 2009, the Cancun Agreement Rwanda: was concluded at the UNFCCC - It is unclear where this money will Conference of Parties (COP) in 2010. The come from, and whether promises of Agreement set out the operationalisation its delivery will be kept of funding for adaptation and mitigation in

Table 1.2: Key outcomes of the Cancun Agreement, December 2010, Cancun Mexico Negotiation issue Outcome Shared Vision To limit global average temperatures to a 2°C increase Finance 30 billion USD is set out for developing countries in the 2010-2012 period, rising to 100 billion USD by 2020. Call for creation of a Green Climate Fund through which a significant part of the finance would be transferred Mitigation Countries to define own mitigation actions, and creation of registry for developing countries to list Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) Adaptation Provisions establishing a Technology Mechanism for immediate facilitation of technology development and transfer for adaptation, as well as a Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) Forestry Provide countries with guidance on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and other sustainable land management practices (REDD+), with need for further clarifications and negotiations Monitoring, Reporting Strengthening developing countries’ reporting on mitigation actions and support of and Verifications (MRV) NAMAs. Legal Form The Cancun Agreement, like the Copenhagen Accord, does not cover the issue of the legal form of the post-2012 climate regime. This is postponed to COP-17 in Durban, South Africa

8 Baseline Report - How the money is to be distributed is centres. Students who successfully contentious complete their upper secondary education - Ensuring the money is spent effectively can either enroll at an integrated will be both difficult and likely to intrude Polytechnic Regional Centre to obtain an on the governments of recipient A1 Diploma, or they can proceed to higher nations, and jeopardise democratic education to obtain an A1 Diploma in three decision making years or a bachelor’s degree after four or - The funding may not be made ‘new five years. Graduates can continue to the and additional’ to ODA masters and PhD levels. Despite the significant uncertainty, the Rwanda has nearly achieved the second international community is making Millennium Development Goal of universal progress towards climate finance for access to primary education, and strongly developing countries. By developing a values university education. In order for the national strategy on climate change and country to achieve its ambitious goals low carbon development, Rwanda will capacity still needs to be built across all improve its eligibility for funding. levels. Technical and vocational training is Education and Capacity essential for the implementation and maintenance of infrastructure Education is essential for development developments, new technologies and and is therefore a key focus area for the young industries. New university degrees Government of Rwanda. According to the are also needed to develop new growing Education Sector Strategic Plan sectors in the economy such as mining, IT 2010-2015, the mission of the Ministry of and tourism. The new challenge of climate Education is to transform the Rwandan change also calls for new skills in data citizen into skilled human capital for socio- collection, analysis and modelling. Some economic development of the country by of these issues are being addressed by ensuring equitable access to quality the GoR, with graduates sponsored to education focusing on combating illiteracy, study overseas and experts brought in. promotion of science and technology, But as Rwanda’s economy grows, its critical thinking and positive values. human capacity needs to grow with it. is organized into two different levels, basic education (pre- primary to lower secondary school) and post-basic. On completion of nine years of basic education, students can proceed to upper secondary education, technical secondary schools or to vocational training

Table 1.3: Education in Rwanda (2010) Number of Number of Education Level Institutions Students % Female Enrollment Pre-primary School 1,369 96,934 51.7 6.10% Primary School 2,510 2,299,326 50.7 95.40% Lower Secondary 298,799 51.8 22.60% (O-level) 1, 399 Upper Secondary 126,788 48.1 School (A-level) Technical and 75 29,217 44.9 Vocational Training University 29 62,546 44

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 9 “All across the world, in every kind of environment and region known to man, increasingly dangerous weather patterns and devastating storms are abruptly putting an end to the long-running debate over whether or not climate change is real. Not only is it real, it's here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the man-made natural disaster.”

Barack Obama

10 Baseline Report 2. CLIMATE POLICY

Rwanda’s development and environment market activities[5] context creates a unique interplay 2010 - Second National Communication between the risks posed and the (SNC) completed, including a stand-alone opportunities provided by climate change. mitigation strategy, the Carbon Policy and High levels of poverty and reliance on an updated emissions inventory [6] vulnerable agricultural systems, along with low levels of industrialisation and other 2010 - National Implementing Entity (NIE) carbon-intensive activities, underscore this application submitted to access dynamic. As climate risks increase, international resources under the [7] Rwanda’s development path will largely UNFCCC’s Adaptation Fund determine the extent of its future Under the SNC, priority sectors for vulnerability and resilience. adaptation activities include water Rwanda has priority status for protection resource management, agriculture, forest against negative impacts of climate management, and health. Recommended change as a Least Developed Country actions for the 2011 to 2015 period are (LDC) under the United Nations complementary and, in many cases, Framework Convention on Climate identical to six broad priority adaptation Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol. options highlighted in the NAPA: Rwanda has adopted principles of - Integrated Water Resource sustainable growth, along with climate Management (IWRM) change adaptation and mitigation, as - Early warning and agro-meteorological national priorities. Steps taken to address information systems with rapid climate risks and low carbon development response mechanisms opportunities include national policy - Promotion of non-agricultural income measures, awareness raising activities, generating activities institutional capacity building, and project- - Promotion of intensive agro-pastoral based activities[1, 2, 3]. activities - Introduction of drought-resistant National Policy Measures and species Strategies From these options, seven projects were Rwanda has been engaged in climate identified as urgent to address cross- issues since 1992 and has made good cutting impacts to improve the adaptive progress with national policy and capacity of populations, vulnerable sectors environmental strategies. The following and ecosystems[6]. The Priority NAPA timeline summarises Rwanda’s progress: projects are[4]: 1992 - participation in the Rio Conventions - Land conservation and protection of 1998 - UNFCCC ratified vulnerable regions 2003 - Kyoto Protocol ratified - Establish hydro-meteorological information and early warning systems 2005 - Initial National Communication - Development of irrigated areas by (INC) submitted to the UNFCCC[3] gravity water systems in drought- 2006 - National Adaptation Programme of vulnerable zones [4] Action (NAPA) completed - Support Districts of vulnerable regions 2009 - Climate Change and International in planning and implementation related Obligations Unit (CCIOU) established to conservation, water harvesting, within the Rwanda Environment intense agriculture and new crop Management Authority (REMA), varieties overseeing its Designated National - Increase adaptive capacity of Authority (DNA) to coordinate carbon “Imudugudu” in vulnerable regions by

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 11 the improvement of drinking water, across sectoral strategies aligns closely sanitation, alternative energy services with stated development objectives of the and promotion of non-agricultural jobs Economic Development and Povery - Increase food security and modes of Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) 2008-2012 medicine distribution and sensitise to for optimal utilisation of natural resources, stocking and conservation of and commitments to protection of agriculture products environmental resources under Vision - Preparation and implementation of 2020. Under the EDPRS, explicit woody combustible substitution measures to address climate include an national strategy to combat incentive framework for implementation of deforestation and erosion the NAPA and to develop Clean The SNC specifies that actions identified in Development Mechanism (CDM) project the NAPA constitute primary policy opportunities. In line with this, guidelines guidance for informing Strategic Sector and recommended indicators are under Plans (SSPs). In this context, the SNC also development to institutionalise Strategic highlights the need for coverage of a Environmental Assessments (SEAs) and number of cross-cutting issues amongst Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) sectors: that consider sector-specific climate risks and resilience[7]. - Technology transfer - Research and systematic observation The GoR, in partnership with UNDP/UNEP, (hydrological, meteorological) is in the process of operationalising a - Information on research programs (e.g. National Fund for the Environment, KIE, KHI, ISAR/NUR, KIST) FONERWA. A scoping process is under - Education (especially tertiary), training way, strongly considering merging it with and public awareness similar funds that are operational or in the - Capacity building (government pipeline, including the National Fund for departments, universities, research Forestry and National Fund for Water, institutions, etc.) respectively. Joined with environment and - Information and networking (especially climate change, FONERWA’s revised in ) scope would channel resources to four programmatic areas for accelerated SNC and NAPA recommendations sustainable development and underscore Rwanda’s overall environmental mainstreaming[9]. implementation strategy of mainstreaming climate activities through sector While the modalities and financing development strategies and budgets. This structure of FONERWA are in discussion, approach has been actively promoted with flexibility arrangements could allow the technical support from the Rwanda Fund to receive earmarked bilateral Environment and Management Authority resources from development partners and (REMA) under the Ministry of Lands and international climate funds (including the the Environment (MINELA). Consolidation Adaptation Fund and Green Fund), and to of NAPA and SNC priorities and sectoral facilitate public-private partnerships. An mainstreaming are illustrated in the five- example would be the promotion of year Environment Sub-Sector Strategic special loan products for environmentally Plan, highlighting the need for spatial and friendly technologies with microfinance thematic information, an institutional institutions. Standardised eligibility criteria framework, capacity development and and centralisation of oversight and public-private partnerships to address fiduciary risk within MINECOFIN – possibly climate change[8]. under a representative board of trustees – would also create a strong institutional Rwanda’s goal of climate mainstreaming

12 Baseline Report framework for catalysing support for National Land Centre (NLS) under environmental mainstreaming. MINELA, in addition to special units such Comprehensive analysis of the FONERWA as the DNA and NIE under REMA. The framework is ongoing in work led by MINELA and REMA (highlighted in red) UNDP/UNEP and REMA to explore have led policy development, institutional Environment and Fiscal Reforms (EFR) capacity building, and demonstration under the Poverty Environment Initiative pilots. Major initiatives, such as National (PEI)[9]. This process will be key not only to Communications to the UNFCCC and the development of a National Climate NAPA, involve close engagement of other Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategy, key ministries, agencies, research but to achieving more elaborate strategic institutions and development partners. outcomes planned for the revised EDPRS. This is in recognition of the cross-cutting nature of climate change and its Human Capacity, importance as a development issue[18]. Stakeholder Mapping and Although Rwanda has successfully Engagement initiated stakeholder-led efforts for climate policy formulation and sectoral guidance, As human development lies at the heart of signifi cant coordination and sustainable economic growth, capacity implementation challenges have arisen in building is recognised as central to recent years, due in part to increasing Rwanda’s national development objectives international attention to climate change. and will be a key element of a national There is an apparent lack of climate strategy. Initial scoping work communication and awareness among identified a wide range of stakeholders stakeholders regarding their respective actively engaged in Rwanda’s climate activities. This appears to be largely a policy development. Stakeholders are result of poor communication between broadly grouped into government, diverse and independently funded actors, development partners, research designing and implementing initiatives institutions and private actors. without adequate background scoping of Other key ministries include MINICOFIN, existing activities, often undertaken in MOH (Ministry of Health), MININTER parallel. (Ministry of Internal Security), and the

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 13 Table 2.1: Previous and ongoing climate change related activities

Issue Activity Awareness raising Host of Climate Change and Human Rights conference (2008)

Host of Climate for Development – 3rd under Africa’s Finance for Development initiative

Regular radio and television programming, and print media coverage of climate issues Projects/ research Economics of Climate Change in Rwanda (SEI, 2009)

Reducing vulnerability to climate change by establishing early warning and disaster preparedness systems, and support for integrated watershed management in flood-prone areas in the Gishwati ecosystem (UNEP/UNDP LDCF, 2010-2013)

Approaches to climate change adaptation in Africa (AAP)– building a comprehensive national approach in Rwanda (UNDP/JICA, 2010-2011)

Regional GEF/UNEP initiative to climate-proof energy sectors in Rwanda, ACCESA country study (IISD/ACTS/KIST)

Decentralisation and Environmental Management Project (DEMP) (UNDP/REMA) Phase II (2008-2013), community-based district environmental management and planning

Building Capacity for Sustainable Land Use and Management in Rwanda (GEF/ RADA/TerrAfrica)

Kirehe Watershed Management Project (Eastern Province) under MINAGRI/ IFAD with adaptation component (soil and water conservation, irrigation and water harvesting) Project for Forest Management in Rwanda (PAFOR) for Gishwati area reforestation Nile Transboundary Environmental Action Project (NTEAP) to protect Nile Basin ecosystems through IWRM methods (GEF/International Waters/UNDP/, others)

CC-DARE pilot projects on adaptation (Phases 1 & 2) with Nile Basin Discourse Forum (NBDF), NTEAP, & RENGOF with focus on ecosystem resilience

Pilot adaptation activities in Nyabihu District, building capacity and raising awareness Land and Biodiversity Conservation Project in Gishwati area

MINAGRI Gishwati area rehabilitation, revising Gishwati land-use master plan

“Partners in Agriculture and Environment” Bigogwe Sector for LDCF implementation (SGP/GEF, 2009- 2011)

Rehabilitation activities for Rugezi wetland and Rubaya District

MINALOC climate proofing of Vision Umerenge Programme (VUP) Economics of adaptation in Rwanda’s coffee sector (IIED/NUR/SEI/GCAP, 2010/11)

Transboundary Agro-Ecosystem Management Project for the Kagera River Basin (FAO, TerrAfrica, GEF)

Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES), Gishwati (WCS, REMA, 2010/11)

Adaptation in Rwanda’s coffee sector and gender issues (CARE, 2010/11)

14 Baseline Report In the case of some stakeholder groups, Lastly, there are very low levels of the situation is gradually improving. For institutional and private capacity and low example, in September 2010, Rwanda’s awareness of climate change issues and 31 development partners (DPs), excluding responses, particularly at sub-national NGOs and private foundations, agreed to (District and lower) levels. a division of labour with (SIDA), Current Project Initiatives the FAO and UNDP leading on environment issues. In December 2010, and Implementation further progress was made with the A wide array of adaptation and mitigation signing of a Sector-Wide Approach project initiatives are currently under way, (SWAP) MOU between the GoR and or in the pipeline, in Rwanda (Table 2.1). In development partners to improve general, these activities have been coordination and support to the designed and implemented exclusively for Environment and Natural Resource (ENR), either adaptation or mitigation. in which climate change is identified as a Nevertheless, strong synergies or co- [10] key sub-sector . benefits between many adaptation and Nevertheless, to date project origination, LCG activities are widely recognised, and funding, and information sharing for integrated approaches of interest are climate initiatives has been relatively ad being explored by stakeholders (e.g. FAO, hoc and poorly coordinated. This REMA). highlights the importance of improved Predominant “win-win” activities for coordination and cooperation, particularly adaptation and low carbon growth relate related to DPs, under the process of to improved land management and more NCCLCG strategy development and joint sustainable agriculture, including soil and implementation. The need for improved water conservation, ecosystem protection DP-GoR coordination has particular and rehabilitation. These activities promote relevance to other stakeholder groups, system resilience to climate shocks, and including research institutions and civil also conservation and/or sequestration of society, which are active in policy GHGs in soils, ground cover and forests, formation and implementation, and largely as well as reducing fossil fuel-based supported by donor/public resources. power through renewable generation. Scoping work also found the private Despite such co-benefits, potential sector to be the least engaged in climate conflicts may arise between adaptation policy formulation and initiatives. However, and LCG, for example, increased mineral the electricity and water utility (Reco- fertiliser use on highly acidic soils, Rwasco) is more actively engaging in marshland reclamation and increased ecosystem protection activities to ensure reliance on hydroelectric power under sustainable water regulation, while indirect reduced rainfall regimes and increased engagement is increasing through private water demand. [19] entry into renewable energy markets . Adaptation Projects Facilitating enhanced private sector awareness of low carbon growth Ongoing and planned adaptation project opportunities is the mandate of Rwanda’s initiatives in Rwanda can be generally DNA under REMA, while the Rwanda classified under capacity, financial, Development Board (RDB) also plays a technical and research and development key role in informing potential investors. investments in a handful of integrated Nevertheless, analogous efforts in thematic areas linked to environmental awareness raising and facilitation of private policy and management. The various sector investment in adaptation activities investment types, thematic areas, and are a clear gap area. special topics are highlighted in figure 2.1,

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 15 Figure 2.1:  Example investment types, themes and special topics under current adaptation project initiatives though not exhaustively. A vulnerability and analysis of synergies with mitigation DRR approach has largely been taken by activities, modelling energy system project initiatives, analogous to the NAPA/ vulnerability, transport, the built SNC methodology and recommendations. environment and flooding, municipal water This affords priority focus to low-income and sanitation, among other health-related and highly vulnerable groups in areas risks (e.g. malaria, bilharzia, malnutrition, prone to extreme events and climate heat stress) and key sectors are not related hazards, namely floods, droughts adequately covered under current project and landslides. Across projects, different considerations. Finally, awareness raising, themes and topics are covered, with communication and information sharing project scopes varying considerably by need to be supported more as key sector specific or economy-wide issues, or thematic areas. specific geographic areas of interest. Two UN-led initiatives are particularly Ad hoc coordination to date has led to notable for their high levels of apparent duplication of efforts. coordination, along with their Development of early warning and comprehensive approaches to adaptation. improved meteorological observational This is due in part to the integrated systems illustrates this as the FAO/ institutional framework mandated by the MINAGRI, World Bank, UNDP, and UK “One UN” initiative. The Approaches to Hadley Centre, among other project climate change Adaptation in Africa originators, aim to improve the capacity or Programme (AAP) in particular has strong infrastructure of Meteo Rwanda, each linkages with NCCLCG strategy work, as under separate initiatives[11,12,13]. These the overall objective is to build a parallel efforts are also notable given that a comprehensive national approach to primary objective of the NCCLCG strategy adaptation in Rwanda[14]. The project is is to establish a Climate Observatory in funded by JIKA, and implemented through Rwanda. UNDP and REMA (2010-2011). The UNEP/UNDP project establishing an early Overall, activities overlap significantly warning and disaster preparedness across themes and investment categories. system, and integrated watershed It is also evident that innovative sources of management in flood-prone areas in the financing and trans-boundary issues are Gishwati ecosystem, will link with AAP as not widely covered in these major a pilot initiative. This work is a follow-on adaptation initiatives. In addition, in-depth project based on top NAPA

16 Baseline Report Table 2.2: Vulnerability areas across geographic priorities

Ruhango- Karongi- Nyaruguru- Muhanga- Bugesera Gisagara Huye Rutisiro Ngorororero Nyabihu Nyanza Nyamagabe Kamonyi Food  Security Poverty  Nutrition   Drought   risk

*Food security: Together, these strata account for 36% of the population and 65% of all the food insecure. Poverty: These account for 25% of the population and 45% of all households with a poor food consumption score (FCS). Nutrition: Including wasting and stunting (Rubavu included). Drought risk: Areas most frequently reported (noting Nyagatare-Gatsibo-Kayonza should be monitored). climate change. The National Institute of recommendations, and is supported by Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) and its the Least Developed Country Fund partners have completed a 2009 (LDCF) [12]. Comprehensive Food Security and The AAP and LDCF projects present Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA) and excellent opportunities to inform and Nutrition Survey[15]. These data establish a complement recently initiated baseline of poverty, overall vulnerability discussions to ‘climate proof’ Rwanda’s and nutrition insecurity, analysing key Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme trends over time and across geographic (VUP), a flagship programme of the regions. This is critical for identifying EDPRS. VUP has three components priority intervention areas where increased underpinned by sensitisation and climate risks will lead to greater exposure [11] training : of already vulnerable populations and - Direct support - cash transfers to the groups. Four priorities were explored in poorest households that cannot work analysing geographic priorities: food - Public works - employment to the security; poverty; malnutrition; and risk of poorest households who can work drought. These are highlighted in table 2.2 - Financial services - a savings and according to key regions, each with credit infrastructure that will reach the different vulnerability characteristics that poor need to be taken into account when The goal of a revised VUP would be to planning interventions. ensure that accelerated reduction of Among surveyed communities, three extreme poverty and achievement of livelihood profiles were identified as being MDGs in targeted Imirenge is carried out especially vulnerable: in a climate-resilient way. This highlights - Agriculturalists - low income that accelerated sustainable (dependence on agriculture, low development is of primary importance production diversity) for reducing vulnerability, mainstreaming - Agro-labourers (manual and seasonal, environment at sub-national levels, and paid in cash or kind, and agriculture) promoting climate-resilient development. - Marginal livelihoods (e.g. assistance, Further Vulnerability-Based remittances, hunting/gathering, Intervention Areas transport) High levels of socioeconomic Significantly, the proportion of female- vulnerability coupled with climate risk headed households is highest among the exposure lead to low adaptive capacity marginal livelihood group (19%), to existing climate variability and future agriculturalists - low income (18%) and

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