LIMITED REPORT an Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use

LIMITED REPORT

An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces

Jeffrey Thorpe1 Stephen Wolfe2 Janet Campbell3 Jennifer Leblanc2 Rachel Molder3

1Saskatchewan Research Council 2Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada 3formerly at Saskatchewan Research Council

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01

June, 2001

CONFIDENTIAL REPORT

An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces

Jeffrey Thorpe1 Stephen Wolfe2 Janet Campbell3 Jennifer Leblanc2 Rachel Molder3

1Saskatchewan Research Council 2Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada 3formerly at Saskatchewan Research Council

Saskatchewan Research Council SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 15 Innovation Boulevard Saskatoon, SK S7N 2X8 Tel: 306-933-7432 Fax: 306-933-7817 June, 2001

An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Outputs from multiple global circulation models (GCMs) simulate that, with the exception of the arctic, the prairies will experience the greatest increases in temperature in Canada under continued increases in greenhouse gases, resulting in widespread impacts and the need for adaptation. This report focuses on climate change and land use management in sand dune areas located throughout the Prairie Provinces. Particular attention is given to these areas due to the sensitivity of dunes and their land uses to climatic variability and change. The purposes of the research presented in this report are: to gain a better understanding of the current climate and ecology in these dune areas, determine future climates as simulated by GCM scenarios, assess the potential impacts of this climate change, consider potential adaptation options, and evaluate existing management plans to determine whether climate change is being addressed.

Ecological Classification and Climatic Normals

Information on ecoregions, ecodistricts and climatic normals provides an overview of the current ecological conditions in sand dune areas. There are a total of 8 ecozones, 44 ecoregions and 359 ecodistricts in the Prairie Provinces. Dune areas are found throughout the Prairies and Boreal ecozones.

Ecodistrict climate normals for 1961-1990 show that there is a distinct temperature gradient across the Prairie Provinces, moving from the hot southwest to the cool northeast. Precipitation, aridity, and precipitation surplus/deficit normals also indicate that eastern Manitoba and western Alberta have high moisture availability, with a moderate amount of moisture across the interior, and low moisture availability in southern Saskatchewan, southeastern Alberta, and northern Saskatchewan.

Climate Change Scenarios

After comparing several available GCM scenarios, five were chosen that gave the greatest range of simulated change across the Prairie Provinces: CGCM1-GG1 (Canadian model using greenhouse gases only), CGCM1-GA1 (Canadian model using greenhouse gases and aerosols), HadCM3-GG1 (British model using greenhouse gases only), HadCM3-GA1 (British model using greenhouse gases and aerosols), and ECHAM4-GG1 (German model using greenhouse gases only). By the 2050s, all models simulate annual temperature increases of 2°C to 9°C. Annual precipitation changes vary between -10% and +40%. The projected change also varies by season, with the greatest increases in temperature projected in the winter, the greatest declines in precipitation in the summer, and the greatest increases in precipitation in the winter and spring.

When climate change in the Prairie Provinces is mapped using results from the CGCM1-GG1 model, results show that the greatest temperature increases are simulated for southern and northeastern Manitoba and central Saskatchewan. The greatest precipitation increases are seen across the northern portion of all three provinces, in western Saskatchewan, and in Alberta. The maps also show that slight precipitation increases are projected for southern Manitoba, while precipitation declines are projected for eastern Manitoba.

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Sand Dune Occurrences

There are 6 known dune areas in Manitoba, 43 in Saskatchewan and 76 in Alberta, for a total of 125 dune occurrences across the Prairie Provinces. Six focus dune areas were selected for more detailed study, five of which are located along a temperature/moisture gradient moving from warm/dry to cool/moist, with the Brandon Sand Hills in southern Manitoba being both warm and moist. All areas show gradual warming through the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Brandon Sand Hills experience the greatest increases, followed by Manito Lake and Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills in central Saskatchewan. Precipitation also tends to increase, with increases in Fort à la Corne/Nisbet and Manito Lake Sand Hills in central Saskatchewan being the most pronounced. An analysis of the seasonality of climate change in the 2050s shows that precipitation is simulated to increase the most in winter and spring and decrease the most in summer, while temperatures are simulated to increase the most in winter. Aridity as predicted by the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration is predicted to increase somewhat at all focus areas.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Focus Areas

Sand dune areas in the United States were examined as analogues for the 2050s climate of the focus areas. Because of expected lags in vegetation response, the U.S. analogues should not be used as predictions for the 2050s. However, they show the direction of probable changes in vegetation. All focus areas will shift towards more open grassland and less woody cover. This impact will be especially serious for the heavily forested Fort à la Corne/Nisbet Sand Hills, and implies a gradual loss of timber production and forest-dependent biodiversity. Grassland areas will show an increase in the proportion of warm-season (C4) species, with those already present allowing a rapid response to climate change. Other species currently found only in the U.S. will gradually move into the focus areas, with some moving faster than others. Evidence from the analogue areas and from simple models of grassland productivity leaves the impact on grazing capacity unclear. A model of the climatic potential for dune activation shows increases at all areas, with the three driest areas exceeding the threshold for activation of dune crests.

Adaptation Strategies

If the benefits of climate change are to be maximized while minimizing the negative impacts, proactive management is necessary. Land users first need to recognize that climate change may affect their current lifestyles and understand the system(s) that must adapt. The suite of available adaptation strategies must then be listed and compared, and the most effective management options implemented.

Management Planning

Existing management plans and land uses were evaluated to determine whether climate change impacts are being considered in planning for each focus area. Some areas have biophysical inventories and land use plans, while for others these are in development. For all areas, land use plans need to consider the impacts of climate change, and plan for monitoring and adaptation. Baseline inventories and ongoing monitoring are needed to detect long-term shifts related to climate change. On the basis of information from monitoring, changes will be required in practices such as ii SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 stocking of livestock and allocation of timber harvest. Many of the management practices already used in the focus areas aim at conservation of the dune landscape and reduction of physical impacts. These practices will facilitate the adaptation to climate change, but they may need to be applied more stringently in the future.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We would like to thank the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) for supporting this project. Funding was provided by the Government of Canada’s Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF), Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC), and Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada (GSC). Dave Sauchyn at PARC helped with administration of the project. Assistance with various aspects of the work was provided by Joe Park, Zoe Pfeiffer, and Mark Smith at GSC, and by Charlene Hudym and Leanne Crone at SRC. We would especially like to acknowledge the input from our stakeholders’ committee: Adams, Barry (Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development) Bowie, Eleanor (Great Sand Hills Planning Commission) Didiuk, Andy (Canadian Wildlife Service) Ehlert, Gerry (Alberta Agriculture, Food, and Rural Development) Fearn, Kevin (Canadian Forces Detachment Dundurn) Fontaine, Donald (Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food) Godwin, Bob (Saskatchewan Research Council) Harris, Wayne (Saskatchewan Environment and Resource Management) Hernandez, Helios (Manitoba Conservation) Houston, Bill (PFRA, Agriculture and Agri-food Canada) Johnston, Mark (Saskatchewan Research Council) Loonen, Harry (Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development) Nichols, Lori (Spruce Woods Provincial Park) Peniuk, Maureen (Manitoba Conservation) Phillips, Del (Saskatchewan Environment and Resource Management) Regnier, Beatrice (Saskatchewan Environment and Resource Management) Schmidt, Jim (Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food) Schykulski, Ken (Manitoba Conservation) Trottier, Garry (Canadian Wildlife Service) Veitch, Lorne (Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food)

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TABLE OF CONTENTS page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...... i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... iv

1 BACKGROUND ...... 1 1.1 Introduction ...... 1 1.2Research Objectives...... 2 1.3 Report Outline ...... 2

2 ECOLOGICAL CLASSIFICATION AND CLIMATE NORMALS ...... 5 2.1Overview...... 5 2.2 Ecodistrict Climate Normals ...... 6

3 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ...... 13 3.1Overview...... 13 3.2Comparison of Models...... 14 3.3Mapping Scenario Results...... 19

4 FOCUS DUNE AREAS ...... 25 4.1Overview...... 25 4.2Selecting Focus Dune Areas ...... 25 4.3Ecology and Land Uses in Focus Dune Areas...... 28

5 CLIMATE CHANGE IN FOCUS DUNE AREAS ...... 33

6 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 41 6.1Impacts on vegetation: analogue analysis ...... 41 6.2Impacts on vegetation: regression models...... 54 6.3 Impacts on dune activity ...... 58 6.4Summary of potential impacts...... 59

7 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ...... 63 7.1Overview...... 63 7.2Approaching an Adaptation Strategy...... 63

8 CLIMATE CHANGE AND MANAGEMENT PLANNING IN THE FOCUS AREAS 67 8.1Overview...... 67 8.2 Biophysical Inventory ...... 68 8.3Management Planning...... 69 8.4 Plan Components or Land Uses Impacted by Climate Change ...... 73 8.5 Adaptive Responses ...... 76

9. LITERATURE CITED ...... 81

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LIST OF APPENDICES page

APPENDIX 1 Literature Review: Climate Change and Sand Dunes in the Prairie Provinces

APPENDIX 2 Ecozones, Ecoregions and Ecodistricts of Sand Dune Areas

APPENDIX 3 Prairie Province Ecodistricts, Classified by Model Grid Cell

APPENDIX 4 Land Use Activities in Dune Areas

APPENDIX 5Land Use and Ecological Conditions in Focus Dune Areas (Stakeholder Presentations)

APPENDIX 6 Climatic Summaries for the Six Focus Dune Areas

APPENDIX 7 Annual and Seasonal Climatic Summaries

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LIST OF TABLES page

Table 1: Examples of criteria used to define ecozones, ecoregions and ecodistricts (ESWG, 1996) ...... 5 Table 2: Comparison of GCM models: variables, run types and time slices available ...... 14 Table 3: Available management reports for land use activities in dune areas of the Prairie Provinces...... 25 Table 4: Climatic and ecological characteristics of the six focus dune areas under current conditions...... 29 Table 5: Land use in focus dune areas, by sector ...... 32 Table 6: Change in mean annual temperature in the focus areas ...... 35 Table 7: Change in annual precipitation in the focus areas ...... 36 Table 8: Ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P:PE) in the focus areas: observed 1961-90 normals, and scenario outputs for the 2050s ...... 37 Table 9: Difference between annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-PE) in the focus areas: observed 1961-90 normals, and scenario outputs for the 2050s ...38 Table 10: Seasonal variation in change in annual precipitation (mm) in the focus areas .....39 Table 11: Seasonal variation in change in mean annual temperature (°C) in the focus areas . . 40 Table 12: Climatic and ecological characteristics of selected sand dune areas in the United States ...... 42 Table 13: Comparison of the Middle, Great, and Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills with sand dunes in the 14 - 16 inch precipitation zone of Nebraska and Colorado ...... 46 Table 14: Comparison of the Manito and Fort à la Corne/Nisbet Sand Hills with sandy soils in central North Dakota ...... 49 Table 15: Comparison of the Brandon Sand Hills with sand dunes in the 20 - 24 inch precipitation zone of Nebraska ...... 52 Table 16: Climate Change Impacts of Greatest Concern in Focus Dune Areas: Stakeholder Response ...... 61 Table 17: A checklist of adaptation options and benefits ...... 65

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LIST OF FIGURES page

Figure 1: Ecozones, ecoregions, ecodistricts and eolian deposits in the Prairie Provinces....6 Figure 2: Mean annual temperature by ecodistrict based on 1961-1990 normals ...... 8 Figure 3: Total Annual Precipitation Normals ...... 9 Figure 4: Total Annual P:PE (Penman-Monteith) Normals ...... 9 Figure 5: Total Annual P:PE (Thornthwaite) Normals ...... 10 Figure 6: Total Annual Precipitation Surplus/Deficit (Penman-Monteith) Normals ...... 10 Figure 7: Total Annual Precipitation Surplus/Deficit (Thornthwaite) Normals ...... 11 Figure 8: Changes in temperature and precipitation in the Prairie Provinces for the 2050s, for scenarios based on greenhouse gases only ...... 16 Figure 9: Changes in temperature and precipitation in the Prairie Provinces for the 2050s, for scenarios based on greenhouses gases with aerosols ...... 18 Figure 10: CGCM1, ECHAM4, and HadCM3 grid cells in the Prairie Provinces ...... 20 Figure 11a: Change in mean annual temperature from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2020s 21 Figure 11b: Change in mean annual temperature from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2050s 21 Figure 11c: Change in mean annual temperature from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2080s 22 Figure 12a: Change in total annual precipitation from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2020s 22 Figure 12b: Change in total annual precipitation from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2050s 23 Figure 12c: Change in total annual precipitation from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2080s 23 Figure 13: Mean temperatures (winter, annual, and summer) and annual precipitation for the six focus areas, under current and future climates ...... 45 Figure 14: Percent change in grassland yield from current conditions (1961-90 normals) to the 2050s ...... 56 Figure 15: Percent change in grass yield (C3s + C4s) from current conditions (1961-90 normals) to the 2050s ...... 57 Figure 16: Change in percentage of warm-season and cool-season grasses from current conditions (1961-90 normals) to the 2050s ...... 57 Figure 17: Potential for dune activation for the Middle (Msh), Great (Gsh), Dundurn (Dsh), Manito Lake (Mlsh), Fort à la Corne (Fsh), and Brandon (Bsh) Sand Hills ...... 58

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1 BACKGROUND

1.1 Introduction

Climate change has received extensive research in recent years (see literature review in Appendix 1). While there are still many uncertainties, there is increasing evidence of a significant change. According to the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, the average global surface temperature has risen by 0.6°C over the past 100 to 140 years. The decade of the 1990s was probably the warmest in the past 1,000 years. Warming has been even greater in northern regions such as the Canadian prairies. Changes in natural factors such as solar radiation and volcanic activity have not been sufficient to explain this change, and most climate researchers relate it to the large human-caused increase in “greenhouse gases”, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, which absorb outgoing radiation and keep the planet warmer (IPCC WGI, 2001). Projecting climate change into the future relies on complex climate simulations called general circulation models (GCMs). The range of models considered by the most recent IPCC report showed further increases in average global surface temperature, ranging from 1.4°C to 5.8°C, by the year 2100. For midlatitude continental interiors such as the Canadian prairies, increased summer drying and risk of drought is considered likely as climate changes (IPCC WGII, 2001).

Sand dunes are an important landscape feature in the Prairie Provinces, with 125 dune areas inventoried as part of the current project. In the heavily cultivated regions, sand dunes appear as islands of native vegetation, with a mix of uses including livestock grazing, recreation, and conservation, as well as military training, oil/gas development, and forestry in some areas. Dunes are particularly sensitive to climate, because they persist in a delicate balance between phases of activity. Anything which affects the stabilizing vegetation cover, such as drought, fire, or physical disturbance, can expose the sand to wind erosion and formation of active dunes. Research has shown that climatic aridity can be used to predict levels of wind erosion, indicating whether active dunes will occur. Many land uses in dune landscapes can disturb the vegetation cover, so these uses could be affected by changes in climate which affect the potential for wind erosion.

The sensitivity of the dune landscape, as well as the mix of land uses found there, makes it particularly interesting for examining impacts and adaptation related to climate change. Another advantage is that the same landscape occurs in several different ecoclimatic regions, from dry grassland to northern boreal forest. This means that land uses and climate change impacts can be compared in different current environments.

Grasslands of the North American Great Plains are clearly controlled by climate, with productivity decreasing and species composition changing along a gradient of increasing climatic aridity. There is also a north-south trend which is related to temperature. Southern grasslands are dominated by warm-season (C4) grasses, and northern grasslands by cool-season (C3) grasses. Because of these strong trends, impacts of climate change on grasslands can readily be modelled. Changes in composition and productivity of grasslands will affect their use for livestock grazing, and their role as habitat for plant and animal species.

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Northward in the Canadian prairies, there is a transition to boreal forest with increasing moisture availability. Models of vegetation zonation have shown northward shifts in the grassland/forest boundary with climate change. Forested sand dunes, where timber harvesting is a major land use, occur throughout the Boreal ecozones. Forests growing on dry dune soils along the southern edge of the Boreal Plain ecozone where the climate is marginal for tree growth may be among the first to be impacted. Shifts in vegetation zonation are unlikely to occur immediately with changing climate. Rather, the current forest will tend to persist, perhaps with decreasing productivity and increasing vulnerability to insects and disease. Change is likely to occur when disturbances such as fire or timber harvesting are followed by failure of tree regeneration. Research has shown that the risk of forest fire will increase in a warmer, drier climate, so frequency of disturbance may increase. A wide range of adaptations may be needed to reduce the economic and social disruption caused by a decline in forest cover.

1.2 Research Objectives

This report focuses on sand dunes in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.. The objectives of the research presented in this report are as follows:

To gain a better understanding of the current ecological conditions in dune areas; To determine future climates as simulated by multiple GCM scenarios; To assess potential impacts associated with climate change; To assemble information on land uses in dune areas; To consider potential adaptation options for land users of sensitive dune areas; and To evaluate existing management plans and land uses and discuss adaptation to climate change in dune areas.

1.3 Report Outline

The report is structured as follows:

Ecological classification and climate normals: An overview of ecozones, ecoregions and ecodistricts is provided, and the major dune occurrences in the Prairie Provinces are mapped and classified by ecodistrict. Climate normals for the prairies are presented in a series of maps.

Climate Change Scenarios: Available GCM scenarios are compared, and five are chosen for the analysis in this study. Grid cells for these scenarios are mapped and used to classify dune areas. Simulated precipitation and temperature changes for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s are mapped for the Prairies for one scenario.

Focus dune areas: Of the 124 known dune areas across the Prairie Provinces, six focus areas are selected for concentrated study. Climate, ecology, and land uses in these areas are described. Climate change in focus dune areas: For each area, scenario outputs are used to determine future values of climatic variables for the focus areas.

Impacts of climate change: Potential ecological impacts of climate change are examined by comparison with areas in which the current climate is analogous to the 2050s climate of the focus

2 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 areas. Simple models are used to examine impacts on grassland productivity and dune activity. Potential impacts and stakeholder responses are summarized.

Adaptation Strategies: A series of questions which should be taken into account when considering adaptation options is developed using the climate change adaptation literature. Stakeholder response to potential management options for adapting to climate change is also presented.

Climate Change and Management Planning in the Focus Areas: Management plans and existing land uses in focus areas are examined in relation to climate change impacts. Planning requirements and approaches to adaptation are discussed.

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2 ECOLOGICAL CLASSIFICATION AND CLIMATE NORMALS

2.1 Overview

Ecological classification involves the delineation, classification and description of ecologically distinct areas of the earth’s surface at different levels of generalization using various abiotic and biotic factors at each level (ESWG, 1996:1). A terrestrial ecological classification system for Canada was developed in the 1980s, and included seven levels of generalization. These seven levels, from largest to smallest, are: ecozone, ecoprovince, ecoregion, ecodistrict, ecosection, ecosite, and ecoelement. When the report was updated in 1996, only ecozones, ecoregions, and ecodistricts were selected for detailed analysis (ESWG, 1996). An overview of the criteria used to develop these classification levels is provided in Table 1.

Table 1: Examples of criteria used to define ecozones, ecoregions and ecodistricts (ESWG, 1996)

Classification Geomorphology Soils Vegetation Climate Level Ecozone Physiographic or macro landforms Soil order group(s) Broad Macro physiognomic types Ecoregion Large-order landforms or Great groups or Plant regions or Meso or small assemblages of regional landforms associations thereof assemblages thereof order macro Ecodistrict Regional landforms or assemblages Subgroups or Plant districts or Meso or large thereof associations thereof assemblages thereof order micro

This ecological classification system was used as the basis for evaluating climate change in sand dune areas of the Prairie Provinces. It provides a comprehensive manner in which to assess how changes in climatic variables may affect land use activities, and acts as a framework for selecting analogues to guide discussions on adaptation options given potential future climates.

There are a total of 8 ecozones, 44 ecoregions and 359 ecodistricts in the Prairie Provinces. Detailed information on the climate, vegetation, landforms and soils, wildlife, and human activities in each of these ecozones and ecoregions is available from Environment Canada (Environment Canada, 2001). An overview of this classification system is provided in Figure 1, and a list of all dune occurrences and the ecodistricts in which they are found is in Appendix 2. Note that dune occurrences are found throughout the Prairies and Boreal ecozones.

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Figure 1: Ecozones, ecoregions, ecodistricts and eolian deposits in the Prairie Provinces

2.2 Ecodistrict Climate Normals

Climate normals for 1961-1990 have been interpolated for all Canadian ecodistricts by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (2000). Data on temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith methods), water deficit, growing degree days, and precipitation surplus/deficit were obtained. Summary maps of temperature, precipitation, precipitation to potential evapotranspiration ratio, and precipitation surplus/deficit are presented in Figures 2 through 7.

Mean annual temperature in the Prairie Provinces is shown in Figure 2. A distinct temperature gradient is visible from the southwest to northeast, moving from warmest to coldest annual temperatures. Mean annual temperatures of 3°C to 6°C are found in the southernmost part of the Prairies ecozone in the Fescue Grassland and Mixed Grassland ecoregions. Mean annual temperatures of 0°C to 3°C are found in the northern part of the Prairie ecozone and throughout the Boreal Plains ecozone, excluding a few of the more northerly ecoregions. Cooler annual temperatures ranging from -3°C to 0°C are found throughout the Boreal Shield ecozone, with the exception of the southernmost ecoregions where the temperatures range from 0°C to 3°C. The Taiga Plain, Taiga Shield, Hudson Plain and Southern Arctic ecozones all have annual temperatures ranging between -8°C and -3°C. Dunes are found in regions with mean annual temperatures ranging from -6°C to 6°C.

Figure 3 displays total annual precipitation normals. The map can be broken into five main areas: low precipitation in the north and south, high precipitation in the east and west, and moderate precipitation in the centre. The lowest annual precipitation, 200 mm to 300 mm, is found in the driest part of the Mixed Grassland ecoregion of the Prairies ecozone. Annual precipitation of 300 mm to 400 mm occurs in both the south, in the Moist Mixed Grasslands and Mixed Grasslands, and in the

6 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 north around Lake Athabasca. Precipitation of 400 mm to 500 mm occurs in central portions of the Prairie Provinces, encompassing ecoregions from the Prairies, Boreal Plains, Boreal Shield, and Taiga Shield ecozones. Precipitation over 500 mm occurs in the Montane Cordillera ecozone and the southwestern portion of the Boreal Plains ecozone in western Alberta, and in the Hudson Plain and the eastern portions of the Boreal Shield and Prairies ecozones in Manitoba. Dunes are found in ecodistricts with total annual precipitation levels ranging from 200 mm to 600 mm.

The ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P:PE) is considered an index of aridity. Figures 4 and 5 show P:PE based on both the Penman-Monteith and Thornthwaite methods of calculating PE. Using the Penman-Monteith method (Figure 4), the Moist Mixed Grasslands and Mixed Grasslands of the Prairies are semi-arid. This semi-arid zone is surrounded by a band of dry sub-humid climate which closely follows the northern borders of the Prairies ecozone. A band of subhumid climate is found beyond the dry sub-humid region, encompassing the Boreal Transition ecoregion. A similar level of aridity is also found in the north around Lake Athabasca and extending west to include the Peace Lowlands and much of the Taiga Shield. Most ecoregions throughout the central portions of the Prairie Provinces fall within the humid class, while the extreme east and west portions are very humid. Dune occurrences are found in all classification groups, although the greatest concentration of dunes are found in the semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones.

Similar patterns emerge when P:PE is calculated using the Thornthwaite method (Figure 5). Both methods show concentrated aridity in the south and north, higher humidity to the east and west, and moderate humidity across the centre. Although the dry sub-humid pocket around Lake Athabasca and the humid classification of the central portions of the Prairie Provinces remain unchanged, a few key differences are apparent. Whereas the semi-arid zone was extensive using the Penman-Monteith method, it is restricted to one ecodistrict in the middle of the Mixed Grasslands using the Thornthwaite method. This results from the generally lower estimate of potential evapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite method. The dry sub-humid zone is also less extensive. Another key difference is that the very humid zone is more extensive, although it is still restricted to the easternmost and westernmost parts of the Prairie Provinces. Using the Thornthwaite method, most dune areas are found in dry sub-humid or humid zones, with a few in the very humid zone near the Cordilleras.

Aridity can also be expressed as the surplus or deficit of precipitation in relation to potential evapotranspiration (P-PE). The resulting maps are displayed in Figures 6 and 7. In both cases, precipitation surplus/deficit results agree closely with the P:PE ratio results. For the Penman calculation displayed in Figure 2.6, areas with a precipitation surplus (i.e. P-PE >0) are found in western Alberta and eastern Manitoba, and are identical to the boundaries of the very humid P:PE zones. For the most part, areas with between 0 mm and 150 mm of precipitation deficit are classed as humid using P:PE ratios. When the precipitation deficit is between 150 mm and 450 mm, the P:PE classification is usually sub-humid or dry sub-humid, while precipitation deficits greater than 450 mm lead to semi-arid conditions. All dune areas are located in areas where there is an annual precipitation deficit.

The same comparisons can be made between precipitation surplus/deficit and P:PE when using the Thornthwaite method. Very humid areas have a precipitation surplus, humid areas have a deficit between 0 mm and 150 mm, and sub-humid, dry sub-humid and semi-arid areas have deficits greater than 150 mm. As with the P:PE ratios, the Thornthwaite method portrays a moister climate. For

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 instance, there are no ecodistricts which have precipitation deficits greater than 150 mm using the Thornthwaite method, even though the Penman-Monteith method suggests that there are several ecodistricts with precipitation deficits greater than 450 mm. Most dune areas are located in regions with precipitation deficits, although there are a few dune areas near the Cordilleras with 0 mm to 150 mm of precipitation surplus.

Figure 2: Mean annual temperature by ecodistrict based on 1961-1990 normals

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Figure 3: Total Annual Precipitation Normals

Figure 4: Total Annual P:PE (Penman-Monteith) Normals

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Figure 5: Total Annual P:PE (Thornthwaite) Normals

Figure 6: Total Annual Precipitation Surplus/Deficit (Penman-Monteith) Normals

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Figure 7: Total Annual Precipitation Surplus/Deficit (Thornthwaite) Normals

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3 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

3.1 Overview

The next research stage involved gathering climate change data from various global circulation models. Data from seven internationally recognized models are available from the Canadian Climate Impacts and Scenarios Project (CCIS, 2001). For each model, projections are given for four thirty- year time periods: 1961-1990 (which can be compared to the measured normals for that period), 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099. For convenience, the future time periods are referred to by the middle decade of each period: the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Change values (e.g. difference in temperature or percent change in precipitation) are calculated by comparing model outputs for the future period with those for the base period (1961-90). All of these scenarios are based on a “warm start”: in other words they begin running on the basis of the known atmosphere of the past century, then continue running on the basis of an emissions scenario for the coming century (by contrast with older GCMs which compared an equilibrium climate at current CO2 levels with one at doubled or tripled CO2 levels). Some runs include the effects of greenhouse gases only (GG), while other runs include the effects of both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols (GA). Anthropogenic emissions of sulphate aerosols are thought to have a cooling effect on the atmosphere. A few models also provide ensemble-means (GGX or GAX), which is the mean value of several different runs. A number of different climatic variables are also available for each model. The variables, time slices, and run types available for each model are outlined in Table 2.

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Table 2: Comparison of GCM models: variables, run types and time slices available

Variables CCSR CGCM CSIROM ECHAM GFDLR HadCM2 HadCM3 Mean temperature Precipitation Maximum temperature Minimum temperature Specific humidity Incident solar radiation Factional cloud cover Wind speed Evapo-transpiration Soil moisture Mean sea level pressure Snow water content Sea ice Vapour pressure Relative humidity Potential Evapo-transpiration Diurnal Temperature Range Surface Temperature Surface short-wave radiation Greenhouse Gas Only (GG) Greenhouse Gas Only Mean Ensemble (GGX) Greenhouse Gas With Aerosols (GA) Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Mean Ensemble (GAX) 1960-1991 2000-2030 2030-2060 * ** 2060-2090 * NOTE: * only for the scenarios run with greenhouse gases only ** only for the scenarios run with greenhouse gases and aerosols

3.2 Comparison of Models

Temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the following scenarios:

(i) CCSR98 (Japanese) - GA1 and GG1 for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s; (ii) CGCM1 (Canadian) - GA1, GA2, GA3, GAX, and GG1 for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s;

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(iii) CSIROMk2b (Australian) - GA1 and GG1 for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s; (iv) ECHAM4 (German) - GA1 and GG1 for 2020s, GG1 only for 2050s and 2080s; (v) GFDLR15 (USA) - GA1 for 2020s, and 2050s, GG1 only for 2020s; (vi) HadCM2 (UK) - GA1, GA2, GA3, GA4, GAX, GG1, GG2, GG3, GG4, GGX for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s; and (vii) HadCM3 (UK) - GA1 and GG1 for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.

It was necessary to narrow the selection down to a more manageable number of scenarios. For this purpose CCIS (2001) recommends including:

an ensemble mean (GAX, GGX) run only if interested in “impact response to the climate change signal”, showing minimal natural climate variability; a greenhouse gas (GG) only run, although they tend to over-predict temperature increases; a greenhouse gas with aerosols (GA) run, even though there is considerable uncertainty still associated with this relatively new approach; and at least two different models which “represent the extreme range of changes projected for the region in question, as well as a scenario which more reflects the average climate”.

With regard to the first point, it was decided that ensemble means were not pertinent for this study since the interest was in climate change as a whole, not just the response to the modelled change signal. In order to determine the best GG and GA scenarios to use, precipitation change was plotted against temperature change to see the range of data available and the variation in extreme changes for each of the models for the 2050s.

Results from the greenhouse gas only analysis for all grid points in the Prairie Provinces are shown in Figure 8. In winter (8a), the models cover a wide temperature range, with CGCM1 predicting the warmest climate, HadCM3 the lowest, and ECHAM4 located near the mean. There is a considerable range in precipitation as well, with CGCM1 and HadCM3 showing both the greatest increases and decreases. The temperature variations among models lessen slightly in spring (8b), with only a few outliers from CCSR98 (warm) and HadCM3 (cold). Precipitation ranges are also similar, although ECHAM4 and CCSR98 give slightly drier conditions while HadCM3 and ECHAM4 simulate wetter conditions. In the summer months (8c), most models show similar temperature changes, with the exception of higher temperatures from CGCM1 and lower temperatures from ECHAM4. The most noticeable difference in precipitation is the extremely dry conditions predicted by ECHAM4. In the fall (8d), CGCM1 and CCSR98 show the highest predicted temperature changes, with ECHAM4 showing moderate changes and HadCM3 the least. Precipitation ranges predicted by all models are similar, with ECHAM4 and CCSR98 showing the greatest range in both directions. Annually (8e), CCSR98 and CGCM1 simulate the greatest temperature increases, whereas HadCM3 simulates the least increase. For annual precipitation, ECHAM4 is again found at both wet and dry extremes, along with HadCM3 (wet), and CGCM1 and CCSR98 (dry).

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Winter 2050s Spring 2050s

10 9

9 8

8 7

7 6 6 5 5 4 4

3 3

2 Temperature Change (deg. C) 2 Temperature Change (deg. C)

1 1

0 0 -20-100 1020304050-20-100 102030405060 % Precipitation Change % Precipitation Change

CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM ECHAM HadCM2 HadCM3 CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM ECHAM HadCM2 HadCM3

Summer 2050s Fall 2050s

7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2 Temperature Change (deg. C) Temperature Temperature Change (deg. C) Temperature 1 1

0 0 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 -40-30-20-100 10203040 % Precipitation Change % Precipitation Change

CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM ECHAM HadCM2 HadCM3 CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM ECHAM HadCM2 HadCM3

Annual 2050s

2 Temperature Change (deg. C) (deg. Change Temperature

0 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 % Precipitation Change

CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM ECHAM HadCM2 HadCM3

Figure 8: Changes in temperature and precipitation in the Prairie Provinces for the 2050s, for scenarios based on greenhouse gases only

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A similar analysis was done on greenhouse gas with aerosol runs (Figure 9). In the winter months (9a), HadCM3 predicts the lowest temperature changes while CCSR98 and GFDLR15 show the greatest changes. For winter precipitation, most models show a similar range, although they are staggered because of different mean change values. HadCM3 and HadCM2 simulate the greatest precipitation increases, while CCSR98 and CGCM1 simulate the greatest decreases. In the spring (9b), a wide range in temperature change is apparent, with HadCM3 showing the least amount of change, and CGCM1 and CCSR98 the greatest. HadCM2 and CGCM1 simulate the greatest decreases in precipitation, whereas CGCM1 and CCSR98 show the greatest increases. In the summer months (9c), HadCM2 produces the lowest temperature change, while CGCM1, CCSR98 and HadCM3 all show several outliers with high temperature changes. The greatest precipitation range is observed using CCSR98, with HadCM3 also producing a drier climate, and GFDLR15 and HadCM2 simulating a wetter climate. In the fall (9d), the warmest temperatures are simulated by CCSR98 and GFDLR15, while the least change is simulated by HadCM2 and CGCM1. Precipitation decreases are greatest with CCSR98 and precipitation increases are greatest with CCSR98, HadCM2 and HadCM3. Annually (9e), the warmest temperatures are simulated by CCSR98, GFDLR15 and CGCM1, whereas HadCM2 and HadCM3 show the least amount of change. Precipitation range is the greatest with CCSR98, although GFDLR15, HadCM2 and HadCM3 also simulate high precipitation increases, and CGCM1 and HadCM2 also simulate high precipitation decreases.

Overall, CGCM1 and CCSR98 tend to simulate the greatest temperature changes, whereas HadCM2 and HadCM3 simulate the lowest temperature changes, and ECHAM4, CSIROMk2b and GFDLR15 all show moderate levels of change. CCSR98, HadCM2, HadCM3 and ECHAM4 all simulate high increases in precipitation, while ECHAM4, CGCM1, CCSR98, and HadCM2 simulate high decreases in precipitation. GFDLR15, CSIROMk2b and CGCM1 show moderate amounts of precipitation change.

Based on these analyses, CGCM1, ECHAM4, and HadCM3 were selected as the three models for this study, as they cover the whole spectrum of possible changes. In general, CGCM1 tends to simulate high temperature changes and moderate to low precipitation levels, ECHAM4 simulates moderate temperatures but covers a wide range of precipitation change, and HadCM3 tends to simulate the least amount of temperature change along with the greatest increases in precipitation. Scenarios based on greenhouse gases only were available for all three, while greenhouse gases plus aerosols were available for CGCM1 and HadCM3, for a total of five scenarios: CGCM1-GG1, CGCM1-GA1, ECHAM4-GG1, HadCM3-GG1, and HadCM3-GA1.

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Winter 2050s Spring 2050s

10 8

9 7

8 6 7

6 5

5 4

4 3 3

Temperature Change (deg. C) 2 Temperature Change (deg. C) Temperature

1 1

0 0 -20-100 102030405060 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 % Precipitation Change % Precipitation Change CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM GFDL HadCM2 HadCM3 CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM GFDL HadCM2 HadCM3

Summer 2050s Fall 2050s

6 5

4.5

5 4

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2 1.5

Temperature Change (deg. C)Temperature Change (deg. C)Temperature 1 1

0.5

0 0 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 % Precipitation Change % Precipitation Change

CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM GFDL HadCM2 HadCM3 CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM GFDL HadCM2 HadCM3

Annual 2050s

2 Temperature Change (deg. C) (deg. Change Temperature 1

0 -10-5 0 5 1015202530 % Precipitation Change

CCSR GG1 CGCM GG1 CSIROM GFDL HadCM2 HadCM3

Figure 9: Changes in temperature and precipitation in the Prairie Provinces for the 2050s, for scenarios based on greenhouses gases with aerosols

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3.3 Mapping Scenario Results

Once the three models were selected, the next step involved generating maps to visually display the simulated changes in temperature and precipitation across the Prairie Provinces. Each model simulates the changes in climatic variables for a number of model-specific grid cells. CGCM1 uses grid cells of approximately 400km X 400km, ECHAM4 grid cells of 300km X 300km, and HadCM3 grid cells of 300km X 400km. These grids are shown in Figure 10 along with ecodistricts and eolian deposits for the Prairie Provinces. Numbers have been assigned to each of the cells on the Prairie Provinces and surrounding areas. Grid cells bordering those within Alberta, Saskatchewan or Manitoba are included to provide a broader context. For the purposes of this research, there are a total of 50 CGCM1 cells, 33 of which fall within the Prairie Provinces. ECHAM4 has 98 cells, 52 of which overlap with the Prairie Provinces, and HadCM3 has 70 cells, 40 of which are found in the Prairie Provinces.

Scenario results for temperature and precipitation changes in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were created for the CGCM-GG1 run to provide an example of the scale over which climatic changes are simulated (Figures 11 and 12). Maps were not created for the other runs at this stage because detailed climate change analysis was only carried out in a few key dune areas, as explained in section 3 below. In general, a gradual warming is apparent across all the Prairie Provinces (Figure 11). Temperatures are simulated to increase between 1.75°C and 3.75°C by the 2020s (11a), with the greatest increases occurring in southeast Saskatchewan and southern and northeastern Manitoba. By the 2050s (11b), temperatures have increased between 2.75°C and 6.75°C. Western Alberta experiences the least amount of change, while the greatest temperature increases are observed near Hudson Bay, in northern and central Saskatchewan, and in southern Manitoba. Warming continues through the 2080s (11c), with more than 6.75°C increase around Hudson Bay, in northern Saskatchewan, and southeast Manitoba. Increases of 5.75°C to 6.75°C are observed across eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with slightly less warming in Alberta and western Saskatchewan.

Considerable changes in precipitation are also simulated (Figure 12). By the 2020s (12a), precipitation decreases between 0% and 8% in the extreme northwest corner of Alberta, around the Hudson Bay, and in southern Manitoba. Slight increases of 0% to 4% are seen throughout Saskatchewan, central Manitoba, and parts of Alberta. The greatest precipitation increases are observed in central Alberta and northeastern Manitoba. By the 2050s (12b), only eastern Manitoba and northern Alberta have a negative change in precipitation. Increases between 0% and 8% are observed across the Prairie Provinces, with a band of 8% to 12% increase across the northern portion of all three provinces as well as southeast Saskatchewan. This band of high precipitation increase is still apparent in the 2080s (12c) although the increase is as much as 20% under this scenario. Western Saskatchewan and almost all of Alberta experience an increase of 12% to 16%, with an area of slightly less increase in northwestern Alberta. Southern and eastern Manitoba see only slight increases of up to 4%, while central Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan experience increases of between 4% and 8%.

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 19 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 B) ECHAM4 Grid Cells C) HadCM3 Grid Cells A) CGCM1 Grid Cells Grid CGCM1 A) Figure 10:Figure Provinces Prairie the in cells grid HadCM3 and ECHAM4, CGCM1,

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Figure 11a: Change in mean annual temperature from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2020s (as simulated by the CGCM1-GG1 Model)

Figure 11b: Change in mean annual temperature from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2050s (as simulated by the CGCM1-GG1 Model)

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Figure 11c: Change in mean annual temperature from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2080s (as simulated by the CGCM1-GG1 Model)

Figure 12a: Change in total annual precipitation from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2020s (as simulated by the CGCM1-GG1 Model)

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Figure 12b: Change in total annual precipitation from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2050s (as simulated by the CGCM1-GG1 Model)

Figure 12c: Change in total annual precipitation from 1961-1990 climate normals in the 2080s (as simulated by the CGCM1-GG1 Model)

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4 FOCUS DUNE AREAS

4.1 Overview

There are 6 known dune areas in Manitoba, 43 in Saskatchewan and 76 in Alberta, for a total of 125 dune occurrences across the Prairie Provinces. Information on climate, land use activities, and available land use management reports was collected for each dune area in order to narrow the focus from the 125 dune occurrences down to 6.

4.2 Selecting Focus Dune Areas

The ecological classification of dune areas outlined in Appendix 2 and Figure 1 was used in conjunction with the ecodistrict-level climatic data presented in Figures 2 through 7 to provide a climatic overview of the dune areas. Ideally, focus dune areas would be found in different climatic conditions and ecological classification units, with examples from Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. Of particular interest were dune areas in exceptionally sensitive areas such as the central prairies and/or dune areas close to boundaries between ecoregions.

The suite of land use activities occurring in different dune areas was also of interest when selecting the focus study areas. Land use activities were compared using a matrix of human activities arranged by sector (Appendix 4). The most common sectors include agriculture (found in 75 of 125 dune areas) and transportation (found in 57 of 125 dune areas). Recreation & conservation and energy & mines are fairly common, at 33 and 22 of 125 dune areas respectively. Community (12 of 125), forestry (5 of 125) and military (5 of 125) are also present in a few dune areas. Land use activities are unknown for 27 of the 125 dune areas, particularly for those found in the northern regions of Saskatchewan and Alberta.

A final consideration for selecting focus dune areas was the availability of land use management reports. The reports currently available are listed in Table 3. Great Sand Hills (SK-7) and Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) both have a number of available reports relating to management concerns. A few reports are also available for Dundurn (SK-15), North Battleford (SK-22), Archibald Lake (SK-40), Brandon (MB-1) and Oak Lake (MB-3) sand hills.

Table 3: Available management reports for land use activities in dune areas of the Prairie Provinces

Dune Area Reports MB-1 Brandon Sand Hills Chu et al., 1998-1999 Higgs and Holland, 1993 MNR, 1995 Marr Consulting & Communication, 1995 Schykulski and Moore, 2000 MB-3 Oak Lake Sand Hills Marr Consulting & Communication, 1995 Houston, 1996 Houston, 1993 SK-1 Tunstall Sand Hills Chu, 1996

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Dune Area Reports SK-4 Seward Sand Hills Digital Environmental Management Inc, 1998 SK-6 Big Stick - Crane Lake Sand Hills ERIN Consulting Ltd., 1998 Houston, 1994 SK-7 Great Sand Hills Cheeseman, 1997a Cheeseman, 1997b Chivron Environmental Services Inc., 1995 Epp and Townley-Smith, 1980 SEPS, 1991 Thorpe and Godwin, 1997 Western Oilfield Environmental Services Ltd., 1991 Western Oilfield Environmental Services Ltd., 1990 SK-13 Elbow Sand Hills Thorpe and Godwin, 1992 SK-14 Birsay Sand Hills Chu and Pollries, 1996 SK-15 Dundurn Sand Hills Dillon Consulting, 1998a Dillon Consulting, 1998b Hilderman Witty Crosby Hanna & Associates et al., 1996 Houston, 1999 SK-22 North Battleford Sand Hills Houston, 1997 Nykoluk, 1998 SK-23 Manito Lake Sand Hills Brewster and Schmidt, 1984 Eco-Logic Consulting, 1999 Farrington and Taylor, 1992 Golder Associates, 1997 Manitou Sand Hills Planning and Advisory Committee, 1996 Thorpe and Godwin, 1993 Western Oilfield Environmental Services Ltd., 1997 SK-27 Nisbet Forest Sand Hills SERM, 2000 SK-28 Fort à la Corne Sand Hills SERM, 1999 SK-40 Archibald Lake Sand Hills Abouguendia, 1981 Mackenzie River Basin Committee, 1981 Raup and Argus, 1982 Saskatchewan Provincial Parks, 1997 Smith, 1978 AB-5 Middle Sand Hills Adams et al., 1997, 1998 Banasch and Barry, 1998 Carbyn et al., 1999 Dale et al., 1999 Didiuk, 1999 Finnamore and Buckle, 1999 Macdonald, 1997 PFRA, 1998 Reynolds et al., 1999 Shandruk et al., 1998 Wallis and Wershler, 1988 AB-17 Edgerton Sand Hills AAFRD and AEP, 1998 Cottonwood Consultants Ltd., 1986 Fehr, 1984

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Based on these comparisons and discussions with individuals familiar with the dune areas, six focus dune areas were selected for more detailed study. These dune areas are located in different ecoregions along a temperature and precipitation gradient moving from warm and dry to cool and wet. Detailed information on each area provided by stakeholders is in Appendix 5.

Middle Sand Hills, Alberta (AB-5), is a large dune area in Alberta’s Mixed Grassland ecoregion, with a mix of conservation, petroleum, and military land use activities. It is encompassed by the portion of Canadian Forces Base Suffield which has been set aside as a National Wildlife Area. Only limited military activity is allowed because of environmental sensitivity, and livestock grazing has been terminated. However, oil and gas development is ongoing. Otherwise, the principal land use is conservation.

Great Sand Hills, Saskatchewan (SK-7), is the largest sand dune area in the Mixed Grassland ecoregion. This area supports a mix of grazing, wildlife habitat, and petroleum land uses. A considerable amount of information is also available, including ecological inventories, land use plans, and petroleum environmental protection plans. All of the area is used for livestock grazing, most of it in large private ranches (leased crown lands), as well as two provincial community pastures and six grazing co-ops. Oil and gas development is widespread and ongoing. Conservation and dispersed recreation are also important land uses.

Dundurn and Pike Lake Sand Hills, Saskatchewan (SK-15 and 16), is the largest sand dune area in the Moist Mixed Grassland ecoregion. Land uses are very diverse, and include a large military base (Canadian Forces Detachment Dundurn), three PFRA community pastures, a provincial park, municipal conservation areas, private farm and ranch land, and acreage developments associated with the city of Saskatoon. A resource inventory and environmental impact assessment are available for the military base, and the municipal areas are part of a development plan.

Manito Lake Sand Hills, Saskatchewan (SK-23), is a relatively large sand dune area in Saskatchewan’s Aspen Parkland ecoregion. Almost all of it is used for livestock grazing, with 13 large grazing co-ops operating on leased crown land. Oil and gas development is ongoing. There are a number of resort lakes in the area, while dispersed recreation is also important. Several management reports are available for this area, including a major land use plan. Planning information is also available for dunes in the nearby area of Wainwright, Alberta.

Brandon Sand Hills, Manitoba (MB-1), is the largest sand dune area in the Aspen Parkland ecoregion, and the main representative of dune sands in Manitoba. The two largest uses are Canadian Forces Base Shilo and Spruce Woods Provincial Park. There is also a PFRA community pasture and private farm land. Some management information is available for Spruce Woods Provincial Park and the PFRA pasture.

Fort à la Corne and Nisbet Sand Hills, Saskatchewan (SK-27 and 28), are large sand dune areas in the Boreal Transition ecoregion in central Saskatchewan. They are on crown land designated as Provincial Forest, with multiple uses including timber-harvesting, wildlife habitat, and recreation. There is also the potential for a large diamond mine to be developed. Little management information is available on these areas, but they are currently used for commercial forestry under climatically marginal conditions, making them sensitive to future climate change.

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4.3 Ecology and Land Uses in Focus Dune Areas

The trends in climate and ecology among the six focus dune areas were reviewed on the basis of literature and personal knowledge of the authors. Five of the six (Middle, Great, Dundurn, Manito, Fort à la Corne) fall along a gradient from warmer/drier climates to cooler/moister climates across the central part of the Prairie Provinces (Table 4). From the Middle Sand Hills to Fort à la Corne, mean annual temperature declines from 4.7°C to 0.6°C, mean summer temperature from 18.6°C to 16.3°C, and mean winter temperature from -10.2°C to -17.3°C. Annual precipitation increases from 300 mm to 427 mm, and P/PE ratio increases from 0.51 to 0.83. The ecoregions in which the dune areas are mapped reflect this climatic gradient, changing from Mixed Grassland to Moist Mixed Grassland to Aspen Parkland to Boreal Transition. The Brandon Sand Hills, the easternmost dune area, diverges from this gradient, in that it has the highest annual precipitation (556 mm) and P/PE ratio (0.87), but also has relatively high temperatures, with summers as warm as the Great Sand Hills. The Brandon Sand Hills is a mosaic of grassland and forest, even though it appears to have a moister climate than the completely forested Fort à la Corne Sand Hills, suggesting that Table 4 may not include all of the climatic variables needed to account for ecoregion differences.

Only a few data were found on forage yield in the dune areas (Table 4). Standard grazing capacities from range management publications show a general increase from 0.2 animal unit months (AUM)/acre in the Mixed Grassland to 0.3 in the Moist Mixed Grassland and Aspen Parkland. In the Boreal Transition, this trend is reversed, with low grazing capacities resulting from the high tree cover. Only the Boreal Transition has significant commercial timber productivity.

Major vegetation types differ along the gradient (Table 4). Sagebrush grassland (i.e. grassland with frequently scattered sagebrush) is a major type only in the two driest areas. Grassland, shrubland (other than sagebrush), and prostrate shrubland (i.e. vegetation dominated by creeping shrubs) are found in most areas except the heavily forested Fort à la Corne Sand Hills. Poplar stands are important throughout. Wetlands are a significant part of the dune landscape at the three moistest areas (this is excluding springs and saline lakes occurring at the margins of dunefields). Conifer stands are restricted to the two moistest areas, and oak stands only occur at Brandon. Estimates of upland tree cover show a clear increase corresponding to ecoregion differences. These estimates are based on a combination of literature values and original photo-interpretation, excluding some anomalous areas such as the frequently burned portions of military bases at Brandon and Dundurn.

Individual plant species or genera also show many trends among the focus areas (Table 4). Because of differences in methods among the sources, the lists of abundant plants for each area are somewhat subjective, but are generally based on rank ordering of cover or biomass values from plots in upland vegetation. There are only a few plants which are abundant across the six areas, including trembling aspen, rose, snowberry, and willow. Species abundant only in the two driest grassland areas include plains cottonwood, silver sagebrush, and low sedge. Plants abundant in most of the grassland areas include river birch, wolf-willow, creeping juniper, wheat grasses (western, northern, awned), June grass, needle-and-thread, blue grama, sand reed grass, hairy golden-aster, pasture sage, and fragile prickly-pear. A number of plants grow only in forest, as indicated in the table, so tend to be abundant in the more heavily forested dune areas. Boreal plants, which are abundant only at Fort à la Corne, include jack pine, velvet-leaf blueberry, twinflower, green alder, bog cranberry, Labrador-

28 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 tea, hairy wild-rye, and bunchberry. A number of species of eastern distribution are abundant only in the Brandon Sand Hills, including bur oak, big bluestem, and porcupine grass.

Table 4: Climatic and ecological characteristics of the six focus dune areas under current conditions

Fort à la Dundurn / FOCUS AREA Middle Great Manito Brandon Corne / Pike Lake Nisbet ECOREGION Mixed Mixed Moist Aspen Aspen Boreal Grassland Grassland Mixed Parkland Parkland Transition Grassland CLIMATIC NORMALS (1961-90) mean annual temperature (C) 4.7 3.9 2.3 1.9 2.4 0.6 mean June-July-August temperature (C) 18.6 17.8 17.5 16.3 17.9 16.3 mean Dec-Jan-Feb temp. (C) -10.2 -11.1 -15.0 -14.4 -15.4 -17.3 annual precipitation (mm) 300 329 353 413 487 427 potential evapotranspiration (Thornthwaite) (mm) 583 565 551 530 556 517 precipitation / potential evaporation (P / PE) 0.51 0.58 0.64 0.78 0.87 0.83 precipitation - potential evaporation (P - PE) (mm) -283 -236 -198 -117 -69 -90 OCCURRENCE OF ACTIVE DUNES small large almost small small none areas areas none areas areas PRODUCTIVITY herbaceous forage yield (lb/ac) 876 775 grazing capacity (AUM/acre) 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.30 0.30 0 - 0.15 timber productivity (m3/ha/yr) 1.6 - 2.8 MAJOR VEGETATION TYPES IN DUNES sagebrush grassland grassland shrubland prostrate shrubland poplar forest wetland and meadow oak forest spruce forest pine forest TREE COVER IN UPLANDS <5% 10% 25% 50% 65% >95% ABUNDANT UPLAND PLANT SPECIES Trees plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides var. occ.) trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) white birch (Betula papyrifera) balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) white spruce (Picea glauca) jack pine (Pinus banksiana) Shrubs silver sagebrush (Artemisia cana) low juniper (Juniperus communis) river birch (Betula occidentalis)

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Fort à la Dundurn / FOCUS AREA Middle Great Manito Brandon Corne / Pike Lake Nisbet wolf-willow (Elaeagnus commutata) rose (Rosa spp.) poison-ivy (Rhus radicans) willow (Salix spp.) chokecherry (Prunus virginiana) creeping juniper (Juniperus horizontalis) snowberry (Symphoricarpos spp.) bearberry (Arctostaphylos uva-ursi) pincherry (Prunus pensylvanica)* twining honeysuckle (Lonicera dioica)* raspberry (Rubus strigosus)* saskatoon (Amelanchier alnifolia)* red osier dogwood (Cornus stolonifera) beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta)* currant (Ribes spp.) velvet-leaf blueberry (Vaccinium myrtilloides)* twinflower (Linnaea borealis)* green alder (Alnus crispa)* bog cranberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea)* Labrador-tea (Ledum groenlandicum)* Graminoids low sedge (Carex eleocharis) northern reed grass (Calamagrostis inexpansa)* western wheat grass (Agropyron smithii)* plains reed grass (Calamagrostis montanensis) northern wheat grass (Agropyron dasystachyum) June grass (Koeleria cristata) needle-and-thread (Stipa comata) blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis) ? sand reed grass (Calamovilfa longifolia) slender/awned wheat grass (Agropyron trachycaulum/subsecundum) Kentucky blue grass (Poa pratensis) sun-loving sedge (Carex pensylvanica) sand dropseed (Sporobolus cryptandrus) blunt sedge (Carex obtusata) hay sedge (Carex siccata) western porcupine grass (Stipa curtiseta) plains rough fescue (Festuca hallii) purple oat grass (Schizachne purpurascens)* rough-leaved rice grass (Oryzopsis asperifolia)* big bluestem (Andropogon gerardi) porcupine grass (Stipa spartea) Canby blue grass (Poa canbyi) blue grass species (Poa spp.) Canada blue grass (Poa compressa) sedge species (Carex spp.) hairy wild-rye (Elymus innovatus)*

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Fort à la Dundurn / FOCUS AREA Middle Great Manito Brandon Corne / Pike Lake Nisbet Forbs lance-leaved psoralea (Psoralea lanceolata) star-flowered solomon's-seal (Smilacina stellata) hairy golden-aster (Chrysopsis villosa) low goldenrod (Solidago missouriensis) pasture sage (Artemisa frigida) horsetail (Equisetum hyemale) dense clubmoss (Selaginella densa) fragile prickly-pear (Opuntia fragilis) golden-bean (Thermopsis rhombifolia) vetchling (Lathyrus spp.)* sunflower (Helianthus spp.) northern bedstraw (Galium boreale) wild lily-of-the-valley (Maianthemum canadense)* silverweed (Potentilla anserina) meadow-rue (Thalictrum spp.)* prairie sage (Artemisa ludoviciana) strawberry (Fragaria virginiana) three-flowered avens (Geum triflorum) purple prairie-clover (Petalostemum purpureum) wild sarsaparilla (Aralia nudicaulis)* bunchberry (Cornus canadensis)* REINDEER LICHENS (Cladina spp.) ? FEATHER MOSSES (Pleurozium, Hylocomium)* * species restricted to forest vegetation SOURCES Vegetation: Middle Sand Hills: Adams et al., 1997 Great Sand Hills: Thorpe and Godwin, 1997 Dundurn / Pike Lake Sand Hills: Houston, 1999 Manito Sand Hills: Thorpe and Godwin, 1993 Fort à la Corne / Nisbet Sand Hills: Beckingham et al., 1996, Thorpe, 1990 Brandon Sand Hills: Chu et al., 1998-1999, Higgs and Holland, 1999 Grazing capacity: Abouguendia, 1990, Wroe et al., 1988 Climate http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/nsdb/ecostrat/district/climate.html Personal observations and original air photo interpretation - J. Thorpe

An overview of the land uses occurring in each of these dune areas was provided by a series of stakeholder presentations at a workshop on climate change in dune areas. Stakeholder presentations are summarized in Appendix 5. Major land uses occurring in each area are outlined in Table 5. Transportation, recreation, and conservation occur in all six dune areas. Grazing occurs in most dune areas, except the Middle Sand Hills which were grazed in the past. Oil and gas activities are restricted to the Middle, Great, and Manito Lake Sand Hills, while a diamond mine may be developed in the Fort à la Corne Sand Hills. Military activities are present in the Middle, Dundurn, and Brandon Sand Hills.

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Table 5: Land use in focus dune areas, by sector

Agriculture Energy Recreation & Dune Area Eco-region Community Forestry Military Transportation Total Cultivation Grazing & Mines Conservation Fort à la Boreal 6 Corne / Transition Nisbet Brandon Aspen 5 Parkland Manito Aspen 4 Parkland Dundurn / Moist 6 Pike Lake Mixed Grassland Great Mixed 4 Grassland Middle Mixed 4 Grassland Total 2 5 2 4 1 3 6 6

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5 CLIMATE CHANGE IN FOCUS DUNE AREAS

In order to determine the simulated future climate change for a given dune area, it is necessary to know the grid cell within which it falls. Ecodistricts corresponding to dune areas are tabulated in Appendix 2. Model grid cells and the ecodistricts found within them are tabulated in Appendix 3. This information was used to determine the grid cell under each scenario for each dune area. Change values for the grid cell were then applied to the 1961-1990 normals for the ecodistrict to simulate future values of temperature and precipitation for each dune area. The 1961-1990 ecodistrict monthly temperature normals and 2050s future monthly temperatures were entered into a Fortran program for calculating Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration (Thornthwaite and Mather, 1957). The chosen climate change scenarios were summarised for each ecodistrict in each dune area, and are presented in Appendices 6 and 7. The variables included in the summary in Appendix 6 are:

1. 1961-1990 climate normals: temperature, precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PE), P/PE, P-PE, growing degree days, and water deficit; 2. 2050s changes: precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration; and 3. 2050s future climate: temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, P/PE, and P- PE.

Appendix 7 provides a summary of the detailed monthly and annual data in Appendix 6. Tables include:

1. 2050s annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, fall) temperature, precipitation, P/PE, and P-PE; 2. 2020s annual precipitation and temperature; and 3. 2080s annual precipitation and temperature.

A brief overview of simulated climate change in the six study areas is given in Tables 6 through 11. Table 6 shows annual temperature changes for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. As with the changes seen in Figure 11, all five models simulate increasing temperatures. In the 2020s, a temperature change between 1°C and 3°C is simulated by all five scenarios. In general, greenhouse gas only scenarios tend to simulate slightly higher temperature changes. Also, the CGCM1 and ECHAM4 models simulate higher temperatures than HadCM3, as was expected from Figures 8 and 9. Temperature increases on the order of 3°C to 5°C are simulated for the 2050s, with Brandon Sand Hills experiencing the greatest temperature increases. By the 2080s, temperature increases range from 3°C to 7°C. Again, Brandon Sand Hills experience the greatest increases with temperatures up to 7.5°C warmer, with Manito and Dundurn/Pike Lake also potentially experiencing changes of up to 6.5°C. At all three time steps, CGCM1-GG1 simulates the greatest increases and HadCM3-GA1 shows the least.

Annual precipitation changes for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s are presented in Table 7. In the 2020s, most models simulate slight precipitation increases (2 mm to 37 mm). Notably, ECHAM4 simulates between 2 mm and 42 mm decrease in precipitation for all dune areas, with the greatest declines in Nisbet/Fort à la Corne. Several other models also simulate precipitation decreases in the Brandon Sand Hills. By the 2050s, almost all models simulate precipitation increases between 1 mm and 51 mm. ECHAM4 simulates only slight changes in either direction, ranging from +7 mm to -20 mm.

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The wettest scenario is HadCM3-GG1, which simulates up to a 51 mm increase in Middle, Great, Brandon and Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills. Overall, Nisbet/Fort à la Corne and Manito Lake Sand Hills experience the greatest average precipitation increases. By the 2080s, most models simulate precipitation increases between 20 mm and 60 mm, with a few extreme cases of >60 mm simulated by CGCM1-GA1 and HadCM3-GG1. ECHAM4-GG1 simulates decreases between 0 mm and 36 mm in most areas, with a few grid cells experiencing slight increases of up to 20 mm. As with the 2050s, Manito Lake Sand Hills again appear to experience the greatest precipitation increases.

Tables 6 and 7 provided an overview of climate change over three time slices. However, a more detailed analysis was only carried out for the 2050s. Tables 8 and 9 show 2050s annual moisture availability through P:PE ratios (Table 8) and precipitation surpluses/deficits (Table 9). Table 8 shows that almost all scenarios and all areas show a decrease in P:PE, indicating a shift towards lower moisture availability. This decrease tends to be more pronounced for the moister focus areas and less so for the drier areas, with the Great and Middle Sand Hills showing no change under one scenario. Only the Middle and Manito Lake Sand Hills shift climatic classifications (ie. dry sub- humid to semi-arid and humid to sub-humid respectively). Brandon and Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills shift from humid to sub-humid using the warmer (CGCM1-GG1) and drier (ECHAM4) scenarios, but remain unchanged for the cooler and wetter scenarios (HadCM3, CGCM-GA1). Although Dundurn/Pike Lake and Great Sand Hills largely remain in the dry sub-humid classification, they both show decreased P:PE ratios and are considerably closer to the semi-arid threshold. Table 9 shows annual precipitation surplus/deficit levels. Normals for the dune areas show that they currently experience a precipitation deficit between 66 mm and 283 mm. With the climate change scenarios, all areas show a greater deficit, although the size of the change varies. This additional precipitation deficit is particularly prevalent when using results from the CGCM1 and ECHAM4 runs.

The seasonality of simulated precipitation changes in the 2050s is presented in Table 10. On average, the models agree on slight increases in precipitation (0 mm to 34 mm) in the winter, and even greater changes in the spring (10 mm to 40 mm). Conversely, most models show a decrease in precipitation in the summer months, with an average decline of 10 mm to 30 mm. Changes in fall precipitation are minimal, with most simulated precipitation changes falling between -10 mm and +10 mm. It is interesting to note that Brandon and Fort à la Corne / Nisbet Sand Hills experience the greatest increases in spring precipitation as well as the greatest decreases in summer precipitation.

Finally, the seasonality of simulated temperature changes in 2050s is presented in Table 11. CGCM1 simulates the greatest temperature increases, between 3.8°C and 6.9°C, in the winter (December, January and February) and spring (March, April and May). A lesser change, between 1.8°C and 3.9°C, is simulated in summer (June, July and August) and fall (September, October and November). ECHAM4 consistently simulates an increase between 3°C and 5°C in all seasons. HadCM3 simulates the least amount of change in the spring (1.0°C to 2.6°C) with between 1.6°C and 4.2°C increases in the winter, summer and fall. Overall, all scenarios simulate a temperature increase between 1.8°C and 4.8°C in the summer and fall. A wider range of possible temperature changes are simulated in winter and spring, ranging from 1.0°C to 6.9°C. Brandon and Manito Lake Sand Hills experience the greatest magnitude of change in both winter and spring.

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Table 6: Change in mean annual temperature in the focus areas. Observed 1961-1990 normals form the baseline, while change values are from GCM scenario outputs for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Where two change values are shown, they are minimum and maximum values from more than one GCM grid cell applying to the focus area.

Change from 1961-90 (°C) 1961-1990 Dune Area Normals 2020s 2050s 2080s (°C) 1234 5 1234512345 2.6 3.1 1.3 4.8 4.2 4.3 3.2 6.7 6.2 5.7 4.8 4.4 Brandon Sand Hills 2.4 2.9 1.8 2.7 2.8 3.3 1.4 5.3 4.4 4.6 3.3 7.5 6.6 6.0 5.0 4.7 Fort à la Corne / Nisbet 2.7 1.8 1.0 3.8 2.7 2.1 5.2 4.3 3.5 0.6 2.1 1.7 4.0 3.0 5.6 4.8 Sand Hills 3.0 1.9 1.1 4.2 3 2.5 5.6 4.6 3.9 2.3 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.1 4.7 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.4 6.1 5.4 4.5 4.6 3.8 Manito Sand Hills 1.9 2.5 2.0 2.6 2.0 1.3 4.8 3.7 3.7 3.2 2.7 6.5 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.0 Dundurn/ 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.1 4.0 3.0 2.1 2.4 5.6 4.8 4.6 3.8 2.3 2.8 3.9 5.2 Pike Lake Sand Hills 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.3 4.8 4.2 3.4 2.8 6.5 5.7 4.9 4.3 2.6 3.7 4.9 Great Sand Hills 3.9 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.2 4.4 3.6 3.3 2.7 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.1 2.8 4.0 5.2 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.2 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 4.9 4.6 4.0 Middle Sand Hills 4.7 2.4 4.4 5.6 4.8 1.8 2.6 1.9 1.3 3.6 3.9 3.3 2.8 5.1 5.0 4.1

+1.0 to +2.0 °C +4.0 to +5.0 °C Model 1 = CGCM1-GG1

+2.0 to +3.0 °C +5.0 to +6.0 °C Model 2 = CGCM1-GA1

+3.0 to +4.0 °C +6.0 to +7.0 °C Model 3 = ECHAM4-GG1

Model 4 = HadCM3-GG1

Model 5 = HadCM3-GA1

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Table 7: Change in annual precipitation in the focus areas. Observed 1961-90 normals form the baseline, while change values are from GCM scenario outputs for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Where two change values are shown, they are minimum and maximum values from more than one GCM grid cell or ecodistrict applying to the focus area.

Change from 1961-1990 (mm) 1961-1990 Dune Area Normals 2020s 2050s 2080s (mm) 1 23451234512 3 45 -52 -837725765111933206547 Brandon Sand Hills 482 -9 -2 -37 33 3 14 2 -5 45 10 7 24 -10 55 30 Fort à la Corne / 412 32 -15 8 33 24 25 7 32 27 33 45 7 40 60 3 Nisbet Sand Hills 443 30 -42 7 17 14 24 -9 26 7 30 42 -26 33 33 21 24 -5 12 15 32 29 1 31 19 57 69 2 55 43 Manito Sand Hills 413 13 20 -31 2 -11 27 27 -4 29 9 51 53 -13 46 37 Dundurn/ 14 26 33 15 31 22 47 16 44 45 68 37 353 -34 1 -16 Pike Lake Sand Hills 3 -1 7 5112 2252521 3224 -25 1 40 0 Great Sand Hills 329 13 11 315236 44 12 32 63 24 -34 -18 40 -24 12 -20 28 5 25 7 -3 45 11 43 45 2 64 22 Middle Sand Hills 300 10 5 -29 12 -5 17 6 -20 40 9 37 29 -36 58 21

> +60 mm -20 to 0 mm Model 1 = CGCM1-GG1

+40 to +60 mm -40 to -20 mm Model 2 = CGCM1-GA1

+20 to +40 mm < -40 mm Model 3 = ECHAM4-GG1

0 to +2- mm Model 4 = HadCM3-GG1

Model 5 = HadCM3-GA1

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Table 8: Ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P:PE) in the focus areas: observed 1961-90 normals, and scenario outputs for the 2050s. Where two change values are shown, they are minimum and maximum values from more than one GCM grid cell or ecodistrict applying to the focus area.

Dune Area 1961-1990 CGCM1 ECHAM4 HadCM3 Name Normals GG1 GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 0.88 0.76 0.75 0.84 0.79 Brandon Sand Hills 0.74 0.87 0.74 0.71 0.82 0.78 0.86 0.74 0.81 0.74 0.81 0.81 Fort à la Corne / Nisbet Sand Hills 0.80 0.69 0.75 0.66 0.74 0.72 0.69 0.68 0.74 0.73 Manito Lake Sand Hills 0.78 0.72 0.68 0.66 0.73 0.71 0.58 0.60 0.63 0.59 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills 0.64 0.55 0.56 0.55 0.60 0.58 Great Sand Hills 0.49 0.58 0.52 0.51 0.58 0.53 0.46 0.46 0.49 0.43 0.52 0.47 Middle Sand Hills 0.51 0.44 0.45 0.40 0.5 0.46

0.75-1.00, Humid 0.65-0.75, Sub-humid 0.5-0.65, Dry Sub-humid 0.2-0.5, Semi-arid

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Table 9: Difference between annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-PE) in the focus areas: observed 1961-90 normals, and scenario outputs for the 2050s. Where two change values are shown, they are minimum and maximum values from more than one GCM grid cell or ecodistrict applying to the focus area.

Dune Area 1961-1990 CGCM1 ECHAM4 HadCM3 Name Normals (mm) GG1 (mm) GA1 (mm)GG1 (mm) GG1 (mm) GA1 (mm) -73 -180 -174 -193 -115 -141 Brandon Sand Hills -66 -175 -160 -165 -104 -134 Fort à la Corne / Nisbet -106 -188 -145 -208 -153 -167 Sand Hills -75 -158 -113 -155 -110 -110 -206 -172 -212 -161 -175 Manito Lake Sand Hills -117 -198 -171 -193 -157 -164 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand -297 -295 -253 -265 -198 -295 Hills -276 -244 -233 -254 -368 Great Sand Hills -236 -331 -324 -257 -299 -337 -395 -376 -428 -333 -356 Middle Sand Hills -283 -384 -318 -393 -323 -354

> -100 mm -100 to -200 mm -200 to -300 mm < -300 mm

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Table 10: Seasonal variation in change in annual precipitation (mm) in the focus areas. Single values with white background are observed 1961-1990 normals, while numbers with coloured background are change values from GCM scenario outputs for the 2050s. Where two change values are shown, they are minimum and maximum values from more than one GCM grid cell applying to the focus area.

Season Winter Spring Summer Fall Scenario1234512345123 451234 5 62 114 216 95 Brandon Sand Hills 2 1 7 16 7 29 26 34 41 21 -5 -30 -22 -2 -6 4 1 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 3 15 6 19 23 28 33 13 -13 -40 -35 -9 -13 -5 7 -21 -9 -5 60 88 195 85 Fort à la Corne/ 3 634171016 21 18 21 -16 -1 -4 5-2125 Nisbet Sand Hills 23 -13 -22 -2 2 5 1 12 7 15 -23 8 9 -30 -7 -14 4 -10 to 1 3 59 81 208 67 Manito Lake Sand 5 8 202016157 258 4 6-19-10-42 8 2 -2 Hills 5 3 to 2 0 3 15 15 14 10 5 22 3 2 -11 -22 -23 -7 0 2 -3 -9 52 79 155 66 Dundurn/ Pike Lake 26 13 15 20 20 33 8 4 -8 -4 7 11 8 12 Sand Hills 4 13 -11 -7 0 -3 11 6 14 15 16 -1 -16 -23 -6 -10 -1 4 -5 -5 51 81 139 57 Great Sand Hills 7 14 -10 -2 1-2 13 15 21 19 34 2 -12 -17 -6 6 3 5 -4 -5 1 3-14-13 42 74 129 58 Middle Sand Hills 6 151319177 31 -10 -14 -12 -3 9 -2 -6 -6 10 1 35 1 10 12 13 10 0 28 -16 -15 -23 -5 7 -12 -7 -9

+30 to +40 mm 0 to -10 mm Model 1 = CGCM1-GG1

+20 to +30 mm -10 to -20 mm Model 2 = CGCM1-GA1

+10 to +20 mm -20 to -30 mm Model 3 = ECHAM4-GG1

0 to +10 mm -30 to -40 mm Model 4 = HadCM3-GG1

Model 5 = HadCM3-GA1

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Table 11: Seasonal variation in change in mean annual temperature (°C) in the focus areas. Single values with white background are observed 1961-1990 normals, while numbers with coloured background are change values from GCM scenario outputs for the 2050s. Where two change values are shown, they are minimum and maximum values from more than one GCM grid cell applying to the focus area.

Season Winter Spring Summer Fall Scenario12345123451234512345 -15.4 2.9 17.9 4.1

Brandon Sand Hills 6.1 4.3 3.9 2.2 6.3 4.8 3.8 2.4 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.6 4.4 3.8 3.1 6.1 1.6 3.6 6.7 5.0 4.0 2.3 6.7 5.3 4.0 2.6 3.9 3.6 4.3 3.7 3.2 2.7 4.6 3.9 3.2 -17.2 1.4 16.2 2.1 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 3.9 3.6 1.6 4.0 2.3 3.4 1.0 1.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.8 3.1 2.6 Sand Hills 5.4 5.1 2.6 2.9 3 2.1 4.3 3.8 1.9 4.1 2.4 3.7 1.4 2.1 3.5 3.8 3.3 4.2 3.6 2.9 -14.4 2.7 16.3 3.1 Manito Lake Sand Hills 6.0 4.8 3.4 3.7 2.0 6.7 5.0 2.9 1.6 2.0 3.2 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.7 1.8 3.4 3.5 2.7 6.3 5.6 3.8 3.9 2.6 6.9 5.1 3.2 1.8 2.1 3.3 2.4 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.8 1.9 3.7 3.7 2.9 -15 2.9 17.5 3.8 Dundurn/ Pike Lake 4.7 4.3 4242 1.4 2.1 3.2 2 3.2 3 3 2.0 3.5 3 Sand Hills 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.9 6.35.6 4275 1.92.83.43 3.6342.63.93 -11.1 4.5 17.8 4.8 Great Sand Hills 3.4 3.2 3.8 3.7 4.7 4.3 4 2.1 5.5 4.6 22.53.53 3.5 3.2 3.4 2.5 3.7 2.8 3.9 3.5 4.6 4.0 -10.2 5.5 18.6 5.4 Middle Sand Hills 4.6 3.8 3.2 4.0 2.2 5.5 4.6 3.0 1.5 2.2 3.3 2.5 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.2 3.5 3.7 2.8 4.8 4.4 3.6 4.2 2.8 5.9 4.9 3.2 2.0 2.5 3.4 2.9 4.8 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.4 3.9 3.8 2.9

+1.0 to +2.0 °C +4.0 to +5.0 °C Model 1 = CGCM1-GG1

+2.0 to +3.0 °C +5.0 to +6.0 °C Model 2 = CGCM1-GA1

+3.0 to +4.0 °C +6.0 to +7.0 °C Model 3 = ECHAM4-GG1

Model 4 = HadCM3-GG1

Model 5 = HadCM3-GA1

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6 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

6.1 Impacts on vegetation: analogue analysis

One of the reasons for interest in sand dunes is that, by contrast with much of the Canadian Prairies, they are almost entirely covered by natural vegetation. Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation in the six focus areas were analyzed by finding present-day analogues for simulated future climates. Areas with the warmer climate which is projected for the focus areas can presently be found to the south in the United States. These analogue areas show the kind of vegetation that could be supported at our focus areas by a warmer climate. However, this is different from predicting that this kind of vegetation will occur in the focus areas under the warmer climate. The vegetation already established on a site has considerable inertia, and change may require disturbances (e.g. fire) that remove the current vegetation. Moreover, new species may vary in the speed with which they expand their ranges northward, and some may be impeded by the current fragmentation of native habitats. Therefore, analogue analysis should be seen as showing the probable direction of change, rather than a definite prediction of future composition.

Analogue analysis was based on the climate change scenarios for the 2050s. Future values of temperature and precipitation from these scenarios were compared to climatic patterns in the U.S. Great Plains to select the approximate regions of analogous climates. Literature was then reviewed to find sand dune areas in these regions. Climatic data for each dune area were then obtained by selecting several climate stations in the vicinity, taking their 1961-1990 normals from ftp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/normals/, and averaging them.

The main source of analogues is the huge Nebraska Sand Hills, an area of about 5 million hectares (Adams et al., 1998), and smaller areas of dunes extending from Nebraska into northeastern Colorado (Ramaley, 1939). There is extensive scientific literature related to the Nebraska Sand Hills (Ramaley, 1939; Weaver, 1965; Wolfe, 1972; Bragg, 1978; Adams et al., 1998; Bleed and Flowerday, 1998). However, the best source of information for vegetation in relation to climate is the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) range site descriptions for the “sands” and “choppy sands” range sites, which were kindly provided by NRCS staff in Nebraska. These descriptions are divided according to a series of precipitation zones from east to west; the two westernmost of these, the 14-16 inch (343-419 mm) and 17-19 inch (419-495 mm) zones, were also applied to similar climates in northeastern Colorado. Analogue information was also found for somewhat cooler climates in central North Dakota, and vegetation descriptions were again obtained from range site descriptions (provided by NRCS staff in North Dakota) for the “sands” and “thin sands” range sites.

Table 12 summarizes information for analogue areas in the U.S. The three zones in Colorado and Nebraska have similar temperatures, but annual precipitation and P:PE ratio increase from west to east. Central North Dakota has similar annual precipitation to the 17-19 inch zone of Nebraska and Colorado, but has cooler temperatures.

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Table 12: Climatic and ecological characteristics of selected sand dune areas in the United States

Nebraska, Nebraska, Nebraska, central North Colorado, Colorado, 20 - 24" Dakota 14 - 16" 17 - 19" CLIMATIC NORMALS (1961-90) annual temperature (C) 8.5 9.2 8.8 4.7 June-July-August temperature (C) 20.2 21.7 22.1 19.7 Dec-Jan-Feb temp. (C) -2.6 -2.9 -5.0 -11.7 annual precipitation (mm) 355 445 586 435 Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration (mm) 611 647 657 592 ratio: precipitation / potential evaporation 0.58 0.69 0.89 0.74 difference: precipitation - potential evaporation -256 -202 -71 -157 OCCURRENCE OF ACTIVE DUNES small areas small areas small areas ? PRODUCTIVITY forage yield (lb/ac) 1450 2120 2565 1932 table grazing capacity (AUM/acre) 0.45 0.65 0.80 0.68 timber productivity (m3/ha/yr) MAJOR VEGETATION TYPES IN DUNES sand-sage prairie grassland wetlands and meadows ? TREE COVER IN UPLANDS <5% <5% <5% <5% ABUNDANT UPLAND PLANT SPECIES Shrubs sand-sage (Artemisia filifolia) inland ceanothus (Ceanothus americanus) poison-ivy (Rhus radicans) small soapweed (Yucca glauca) rose (Rosa spp.) leadplant (Amorpha canescens) sand cherry (Prunus besseyi) bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) chokecherry (Prunus virginiana) snowberry (Symphoricarpos spp.) silver sagebrush (Artemisia cana) creeping juniper (Juniperus horizontalis) Graminoids Scribner panicum (Dichanthelium oligosanthes) Indian rice grass (Oryzopsis hymenoides) sandhill muhly (Muhlenbergia pungens) sand love grass (Eragrostis trichodes) blowout grass (Redfieldia flexuosa) switch grass (Panicum virgatum)

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Nebraska, Nebraska, Nebraska, central North Colorado, Colorado, 20 - 24" Dakota 14 - 16" 17 - 19" hairy grama (Bouteloua hirsuta) sand bluestem (Andropogon hallii) blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis) little bluestem (Schizachyrium scoparium) needle-and-thread (Stipa comata) sand reed grass (Calamovilfa longifolia) sedges (Carex spp.) sand dropseed (Sporobolus cryptandrus) Indian grass (Sorghastrum nutans) porcupine grass (Stipa spartea) western wheat grass (Agropyron smithii) June grass (Koeleria cristata) green needle grass (Stipa viridula) awned wheat grass (Agropyron subsecundum) sideoats grama (Bouteloua curtipendula) Canada wild-rye (Elymus canadensis) Forbs many forbs not found in Canada prickly-pear (Opuntia spp.) pincushion cactus (Mamillaria vivipara) hairy golden-aster (Chrysopsis villosa) lance-leaved psoralea (Psoralea lanceolata) spiderwort (Tradescantia occidentailis) rigid sunflower (Helianthus rigidus) low goldenrod (Solidago missouriensis) prairie-clover (Petalostemum spp.) purple coneflower (Echinacea purpurea) prairie sage (Artemisia ludoviciana) green sagewort (Artemisia campestris) ground cherry (Physalis spp.) rusk skeletonplant (Lygodesmia spp.) stiff goldenrod (Solidago rigida) gray goldenrod (Solidago nemoralis) pasture sage (Artemisia frigida)

SOURCES Nebraska - NRCS Range Site Descriptions, www.fs.fed.us/database/feis, Weaver, 1965 Colorado - NRCS Range Site Descriptions, Ramaley, 1939 North Dakota - NRCS Range Site Descriptions

In all of these areas, grassland is the dominant upland vegetation type in dunes, with wetlands occurring in interdune depressions. Tree cover within dunefields is very low in all of the analogue areas. The driest zones in Nebraska and Colorado also have a distinctive vegetation type called sand- sage prairie, dominated by the shrub sand-sage (Artemisia filifolia) (Ramaley, 1939). A number of

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 43 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 other shrubs, including ceanothus, soapweed, leadplant, and sand cherry, are abundant in the U.S. analogue areas and either absent or much less common in the Canadian focus areas. However, the North Dakota analogue has more abundant species in common with Canadian dunes, such as chokecherry, snowberry, silver sagebrush, and creeping juniper.

Among the graminoids, there are many species which do not occur in Canadian dunes, including Scribner panicum, sandhill muhly, blowout grass, switch grass, hairy grama, and sand bluestem. All of these are C4 or warm-season grasses (grasses with the C4 photosynthetic pathway, which functions optimally at higher temperatures than C3 or cool-season grasses). Species which are abundant in both the U.S. analogues and in Canadian dunes include the warm-season grasses blue grama, sand reed grass, and sand dropseed, as well as the cool-season grass needle-and-thread. The abundant grasses in North Dakota include more of the cool-season species which are common with Canada, such as western and bearded wheat grass, June grass, green needle grass, and Canada wild- rye. Forbs show similar patterns. A large number of forbs not found in Canada are abundant in the U.S. analogues (not listed separately in the table). On the other hand, plants such as prickly-pear, hairy golden-aster, lance-leaved psoralea, and low goldenrod are common throughout dune grasslands in both the U.S. analogues and in Canada.

The climatic relationships between the Canadian focus areas and the U.S. analogues were examined by plotting mean temperatures (winter, annual, and summer) against annual precipitation (Figure 13). The distribution of the single points representing 1961-90 normals shows the climatic gradient among the six focus areas, as discussed above. The 2050s projections (the ellipse enclosing five points for each focus area) show that there is considerable variability among the climate change scenarios. In spite of this variability, the climatic gradient among the focus areas, and the trends of future change, remain obvious. All of the scenarios show increases in temperature, and most of them show increases in precipitation, for the 2050s at all focus areas.

Figure 13 also shows the 2050s climates of the focus areas approaching the current climates of analogue areas in the United States. For assessing impacts on vegetation, summer temperatures are the most relevant, as they relate to the amount of heat available in the growing season, which typically shows a close relationship to vegetation zonation (Tuhkanen, 1980). The lower part of the graph (summer temperature and annual precipitation) shows the three driest study areas (Middle, Great, and Dundurn Sand Hills) approximating the climate of the 14-16 inch (343-419 mm) precipitation zone in western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. Actually, the Middle Sand Hills, and to a lesser extent the Great Sand Hills, are projected to be even warmer and drier than this analogue region. However, examination of U.S. climate records shows that these warmer and drier climates are found only a little further south, in central Colorado, and there is no indication in the literature of an associated change in dune vegetation. The coolest focus areas (Manito Lake and Fort à la Corne) reach the climate of central North Dakota. The Brandon Sand Hills approximates the climate of the 20-24 inch (495-622 mm) zone in the Nebraska Sand Hills.

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-20

Dec - Jan - Feb temperatures -15

-10

-5

0 annual temperatures

5 central N.D. mean temperature (C) Nebr: 20-24" Nebr, Colo: 17-19" Nebr, Colo: 14-16" 10 Brandon Fort a la Corne Manito

15 June - July - August Dundurn temperatures Great Middle

25 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 annual precipitation (mm) Figure 13: Mean temperatures (winter, annual, and summer) and annual precipitation for the six focus areas, under current and future climates. For each focus area (represented by a different colour), the single square shows the current climate based on 1961-90 normals. From this, an arrow points to an ellipse enclosing five squares, representing five scenarios for 2050s climate. The large black symbols represent the current (1961-90) climates of U.S. analogue areas.

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Analysis using winter temperatures (the upper part of the graph) shows that, for four of the six focus areas, future temperatures do not reach those of the U.S. analogues identified by the summer analysis. The magnitude of simulated temperature increases is relatively similar between seasons, but the current climatic gradient from Canada to Nebraska is steeper in winter than in summer, with the southern areas having much milder winters. While winter temperatures are typically less important for vegetation because of plant dormancy, they could be important for some species, especially animals which are limited by winter survival. Analysis using mean annual temperatures (the middle part of the graph) shows trends intermediate between the summer and winter analyses.

Table 13 gives a more detailed comparison of the Middle, Great, and Dundurn Sand Hills with the 14-16 inch zone of Nebraska and Colorado, which appears to be the closest U.S. analogue for the 2050s climate of these Canadian dunes. The U.S. area is clearly much warmer, but moisture indicators such as the P:PE ratio are in the same range as the Canadian areas. Grassland is a major vegetation type in all areas. Poplar forest, shrubland, and prostrate shrubland are major vegetation types in the Canadian areas but not in the U.S. analogue. Sagebrush (Artemisia cana) grassland is important in the two driest Canadian areas, whereas sand-sage (Artemisia filifolia) prairie is important in the U.S. analogue. Interdune wetlands appear to be more important in the U.S. analogue. Individual plant species show corresponding differences. Among shrubs, there are only a few species listed as abundant in both Canadian areas and the U.S. analogue. Many of the trees and shrubs which are common in the Canadian dunes appear not to be adapted to a warmer climate and could decline with warming, while species such as sand-sage, inland ceanothus, leadplant, and sand cherry could migrate northward. Among graminoids, blue grama, needle-and-thread, sand reed grass, and sand dropseed are abundant in both areas, but there is a long list of mostly warm-season grasses which are abundant only in the U.S. analogue and which could move northward with warming.

Table 13: Comparison of the Middle, Great, and Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills with sand dunes in the 14 - 16 inch precipitation zone of Nebraska and Colorado. The climate there is similar to that shown by climate change scenarios for the Middle, Great, and Dundurn Sand Hills in the 2050s.

Nebraska, Dundurn/ Middle Great Colorado, Pike Lake 14 - 16" CLIMATIC NORMALS (1961-90) annual temperature (C) 4.7 3.9 2.3 8.5 June-July-August temperature (C) 18.6 17.8 17.5 20.2 Dec-Jan-Feb temp. (C) -10.2 -11.1 -15.0 -2.6 annual precipitation (mm) 300 329 353 355 Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration (mm) 583 565 551 611 ratio: precipitation / potential evaporation 0.51 0.58 0.64 0.58 difference: precipitation - potential evaporation -283 -236 -198 -256 OCCURRENCE OF ACTIVE DUNES small areas large areas almost none small areas

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Nebraska, Dundurn/ Middle Great Colorado, Pike Lake 14 - 16" PRODUCTIVITY herbaceous forage yield (lb/ac) 876 775 1450 table grazing capacity (AUM/acre) 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.45 MAJOR VEGETATION TYPES IN DUNES sagebrush grassland shrubland poplar forest prostrate shrubland grassland sand-sage prairie wetland and meadow TREE COVER IN UPLANDS <5% 10% 25% <5% ABUNDANT UPLAND PLANT SPECIES Trees plains cottonwood trembling aspen Shrubs silver sagebrush low juniper river birch wolf-willow snowberry willow chokecherry creeping juniper bearberry rose saskatoon poison-ivy sand-sage inland ceanothus small soapweed leadplant sand cherry Graminoids blue grama ? blunt sedge hay sedge June grass Kentucky blue grass

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Nebraska, Dundurn/ Middle Great Colorado, Pike Lake 14 - 16" low sedge needle-and-thread northern reed grass northern wheat grass plains reed grass plains rough fescue purple oat grass sand dropseed sand reed grass slender / awned wheat grass sun-loving sedge western porcupine grass western wheat grass Scribner panicum blowout grass hairy grama Indian rice grass little bluestem sand bluestem sand love grass sandhill muhly sedges switch grass Forbs solomon's-seal pasture sage dense clubmoss lance-leaved psoralea hairy golden-aster horsetail golden-bean northern bedstraw low goldenrod prickly-pear pincushion cactus spiderwort rigid sunflower prairie-clover purple coneflower many forbs not found in Canada

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Forage yield and grazing capacity (as listed in standard range publications for the individual areas) are considerably higher in the U.S. analogue. This is surprising because the climate appears to be about as dry in the U.S. analogue, and productivity of dry grasslands is mainly limited by moisture availability. It is difficult to interpret these values without knowing how they were determined. Forage yield values may or may not include yield from shrubs, while grazing capacity values depend on assumptions about animal consumption and acceptable utilization rates. Nevertheless, the difference could be real, for two reasons. First, the U.S. grasslands contain a higher proportion of warm-season (C4) grasses which may have higher water-use efficiency. Second, the landscape in the U.S. analogue is mostly grassland, whereas in the Canadian dunes the grassland is interspersed with shrubland and forest which have lower grazing capacity (Abouguendia, 1990; Houston, 2000).

Table 14 compares the Manito and Fort à la Corne Sand Hills with the analogue area in central North Dakota. The analogue area is significantly warmer, and slightly drier in terms of P:PE ratio. The listed grazing capacity is substantially higher in North Dakota. This comparison is again complicated by the difference in distribution of vegetation types. Manito is about half forested, and Fort à la Corne almost entirely forested, by contrast with the wholly grassland landscape in North Dakota. This implies that dramatic vegetation changes are possible for these focus areas, with a shift to a climate which does not support forest. Warming could be accompanied by declining tree growth or increases in insect and disease damage, but actual vegetation changes are most likely to occur by failure of tree regeneration following disturbance. Not only tree species, but many other forest- dependent plants such as pincherry, blueberry, twinflower, green alder, bog cranberry, Labrador-tea, purple oat grass, rough-leaved rice grass, hairy wild-rye, wild sarsaparilla, bunchberry, and feather mosses, could gradually be lost from these areas. The grassland areas, at Manito especially, already share many abundant species with the North Dakota analogue, such as sand dropseed, sand reed grass, needle-and-thread, June grass, wheat grasses, hairy golden-aster, pasture sage, and sunflower. However, a number of additional plants which are abundant in North Dakota, such as hairy grama, sideoats grama, sand bluestem, little bluestem, and porcupine grass, could gradually move into these focus areas.

Table 14: Comparison of the Manito and Fort à la Corne/Nisbet Sand Hills with sandy soils in central North Dakota. The climate there is similar to that shown by climate change scenarios for the Manito and Fort à la Corne/Nisbet Sand Hills in the 2050s.

Fort à la central North Manito Corne/ Dakota Nisbet CLIMATIC NORMALS (1961-90) annual temperature (C) 1.9 0.6 4.7 June-July-August temperature (C) 16.3 16.3 19.7 Dec-Jan-Feb temp. (C) -14.4 -17.3 -11.7 annual precipitation (mm) 413 427 435 Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration (mm) 530 517 592 ratio: precipitation / potential evaporation 0.78 0.83 0.74 difference: precipitation - potential evaporation -117 -90 -157 OCCURRENCE OF ACTIVE DUNES small areas none ?

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Fort à la central North Manito Corne/ Dakota Nisbet PRODUCTIVITY forage yield (lb/ac) ? ? 1932 table grazing capacity (AUM/acre) 0.30 0 - 0.15 0.68 timber productivity (m3/ha/yr) small 1.6 - 2.8 0 MAJOR VEGETATION TYPES IN DUNES shrubland prostrate shrubland poplar forest spruce forest pine forest grassland wetland and meadow ? TREE COVER IN UPLANDS 50% >95% <5% ABUNDANT UPLAND PLANT SPECIES Trees trembling aspen white spruce jack pine Shrubs river birch wolf-willow raspberry pincherry twining honeysuckle willow saskatoon bearberry velvet-leaf blueberry twinflower green alder bog cranberry Labrador-tea snowberry creeping juniper rose chokecherry leadplant sand cherry bur oak silver sagebrush

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Fort à la central North Manito Corne/ Dakota Nisbet Graminoids blunt sedge plains rough fescue hay sedge sun-loving sedge western porcupine grass northern wheat grass purple oat grass rough-leaved rice grass hairy wild-rye sedge species sand dropseed sand reed grass needle-and-thread June grass slender / awned wheat grass western wheat grass hairy grama sand bluestem blue grama little bluestem porcupine grass green needle grass sideoats grama Canada wild-rye Forbs golden-bean vetchling dense clubmoss fragile prickly-pear northern bedstraw wild lily-of-the-valley hairy golden-aster pasture sage sunflower wild sarsaparilla bunchberry gray goldenrod green sagewort ground cherry

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Fort à la central North Manito Corne/ Dakota Nisbet lance-leaved psoralea low goldenrod prairie sage prairie-clover purple coneflower rusk skeletonplant spiderwort stiff goldenrod REINDEER LICHENS FEATHER MOSSES

Table 15 compares the Brandon Sand Hills with its closest 2050s analogue, the 20-24 inch zone of Nebraska. Temperatures are much higher in Nebraska, but the moisture regime as indicated by P:PE is similar. Listed grazing capacity is much higher in Nebraska; again the prominence of warm- season grasses and the shift from a grassland-woodland mosaic to a predominantly grassland landscape may contribute to this difference. A number of tree species and forest-dependent shrubs and herbs are present at Brandon and could gradually decline as the climate shifts to one which does not support forest. Grasses including porcupine grass, sand dropseed, sand reed grass, and blue grama are abundant in both areas. However, shrubs such as inland ceanothus, small soapweed, leadplant, sand cherry, and the warm-season grasses sand bluestem, sandhill muhly, sand love grass, blowout grass, switch grass, and Indian grass, as well as many forbs, could gradually increase in abundance northward with warming.

Table 15: Comparison of the Brandon Sand Hills with sand dunes in the 20 - 24 inch precipitation zone of Nebraska. The climate there is similar to that shown by climate change scenarios for the Brandon Sand Hills in the 2050s.

Brandon Nebraska, 20 - 24" CLIMATIC NORMALS (1961-90) annual temperature (C) 2.4 8.8 June-July-August temperature (C) 17.9 22.1 Dec-Jan-Feb temp. (C) -15.4 -5.0 annual precipitation (mm) 487 586 Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration (mm) 556 657 ratio: precipitation / potential evaporation 0.87 0.89 difference: precipitation - potential evaporation -69 -71 OCCURRENCE OF ACTIVE DUNES small areas small areas PRODUCTIVITY forage yield (lb/ac) ? 2565 table grazing capacity (AUM/acre) 0.30 0.80

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Brandon Nebraska, 20 - 24" MAJOR VEGETATION TYPES IN DUNES shrubland prostrate shrubland poplar forest oak forest spruce forest grassland wetland and meadow TREE COVER IN UPLANDS 65% <5% ABUNDANT UPLAND PLANT SPECIES Trees trembling aspen white birch balsam poplar bur oak white spruce Shrubs beaked hazelnut bearberry creeping juniper currant raspberry red osier dogwood snowberry willow rose poison-ivy inland ceanothus small soapweed leadplant sand cherry Graminoids blue grass species Canada blue grass Canby blue grass rough-leaved rice grass slender / awned wheat grass big bluestem porcupine grass sand dropseed sand reed grass

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Brandon Nebraska, 20 - 24" blue grama sedge species needle-and-thread little bluestem sand bluestem sandhill muhly sand love grass blowout grass switch grass Indian grass Forbs meadow-rue pasture sage silverweed strawberry three-flowered avens wild sarsaparilla prickly-pear prairie sage prairie-clover pincushion cactus hairy golden-aster lance-leaved psoralea spiderwort rigid sunflower low goldenrod many forbs not found in Canada

6.2 Impacts on vegetation: regression models

A number of studies have examined relationships between climate and the productivity of grasslands using simple regression models. Most studies from the U.S. Great Plains have focused on changes in productivity with precipitation, as this is the prominent east-west gradient in the region (Sims et al., 1978, Sala et al., 1988; Schimel et al., 1990). However, two models are available for examining effects of both precipitation and temperature on productivity. Sims et al. (1978) analyzed data from 10 sites across the U.S. Great Plains studied under the International Biological Program. One of their regressions is:

(mean biomass of live standing crop [g m-2]) = 23.06 - (2.22 * mean annual temperature [C]) + (0.09 * annual precipitation [mm]) + (0.12 * growing season precipitation [mm])

54 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Epstein et al. (1997a) analyzed about 1700 range site descriptions from the U.S. Great Plains to predict the production of C3 and C4 plants in relation to climate:

(production of C3s [g m-2]) = 178.73 + (-11.24 * mean annual temperature [C]) + (.322 * annual precipitation [cm]) + (-.241 * percent sand) (production of C4s [g m-2]) = -180.29 + (5.425 * mean annual temperature [C]) + (5.53 * annual precipitation [cm]) + (.595 * percent sand) + (-1.353 * percent clay)

These regressions were developed from U.S. data, so application to Canadian sites might not be appropriate. However, the current Canadian values are close to the northernmost U.S. data included in these models (especially when compared to the range of the data across the U.S. Great Plains), while the 2050s values for Canadian sites are well within the range of the U.S. data. Therefore, application to the focus areas was not considered to be excessive extrapolation. Models were applied to the 1961-90 normals and scenario outputs for the 2050s. Predictions of C3 and C4 production from the Epstein model were summed to obtain total production. The percentage change in standing crop or production from 1961-90 to the 2050s was then calculated for each focus area.

The Sims model predicted decreases in yield for all focus areas and scenarios, ranging from -3% to -19% (Figure 14). The Epstein model predicted decreases in yield of up to -17%, depending on the climate change scenario, except that the HadCM3-gg1 scenario (which predicts the greatest precipitation increases of the five scenarios) resulted in small increases in yield (Figure 15). In both models, yield is positively related to precipitation, and the scenarios generally predict increases in precipitation in the 2050s. However, a negative effect of temperature on yield appears in the Sims model and in the Epstein model for C3 production. This reflects the fact that evapotranspiration increases with temperature, so moisture availability is less for a given amount of precipitation in warmer climates. The predominant effect of climate change is warmer temperatures, so the models predict lower yields. The picture is further complicated by the fact that these models only account for climatic effects. The direct fertilization effect of rising CO2 concentrations will tend to increase grassland productivity, although possibly at the expense of lower forage quality (Campbell and Stafford Smith, 2000).

Epstein et al. (1997a) also gave regression equations for the percentages of C3 and C4 plants in the community. These models were applied to climatic data for the focus areas, and the change in percentage from the 1961-90 base period to the 2050s calculated (Figure 16). All scenarios at all focus areas show clear increases in the percentage of C4s and decreases in the percentage of C3s with climate change. Epstein et al. (1998) gave models for percentages of individual grass species in relation to climate. Application of these models to the focus areas showed decreases of the cool- season grasses western wheat grass, needle-and-thread, green needle grass, porcupine grass, and June grass, and increases of the warm-season grasses little bluestem, big bluestem, sand reed grass, switch grass, and blue grama. These models do not take into account the direct fertilization effect of rising

CO2 concentrations, but research has shown that the theoretical advantage which this provides to C3s is not realized under the dry growing conditions typical of grasslands (Long and Hutchin, 1991; Nie et al., 1992; Parton et al., 1994; Campbell and Stafford Smith, 2000).

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0 CGCM1-gg1

-5 CGCM1-ga1

-10 ECHAM4-gg1

HadCM3-gg1 -15

HadCM3-ga1 -20 Middle GreatDundurnManito FalC Brandon

Figure 14: Percent change in grassland yield from current conditions (1961-90 normals) to the 2050s, based on the model of Sims et al. (1978). For each focus dune area, five values of percent change are shown based on five GCM scenarios.

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-5

CGCM1-gg1

-10 CGCM1-ga1

ECHAM4-gg1

-15 HadCM3-gg1

HadCM3-ga1 -20 Middle Great Dundurn Manito FalC Brandon

Figure 15: Percent change in grass yield (C3s + C4s) from current conditions (1961-90 normals) to the 2050s, based on the model of Epstein et al. (1997a). For each focus dune area, five values of percent change are shown based on five GCM scenarios.

25 Warm-season species

5 CGCM1-gg1 CGCM1-ga1 0 ECHAM4-gg1 HadCM3-gg1 HadCM3-ga1 -5 change in percentage in change Cool-season species

-10

-15

-20

-25 Middle Great Dundurn Manito Fort a la Corne Brandon Figure 16: Change in percentage of warm-season and cool-season grasses from current conditions (1961-90 normals) to the 2050s, based on the model of Epstein et al. (1997a). For each focus dune area, five values of change in percentage are shown based on five GCM scenarios.

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6.3 Impacts on dune activity

The change in dune activity in the focus dune areas may be predicted from the model applied by Muhs and Maat (1993) and Wolfe (1997), incorporating wind strengths and the ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P:PE). Figure 17 shows the change in annual P:PE ratios between the 1961-1990 normals and 2050 model projections. These values are plotted against the percent of time that winds in each dune area are above the threshold of erosion (W%). A discussion of the potential changes in dune activity is presented below based on 2050s changes in P:PE ratios (Table 8), assuming no change in wind regime.

Figure 17: Potential for dune activation for the Middle (Msh), Great (Gsh), Dundurn (Dsh), Manito Lake (Mlsh), Fort à la Corne (Fsh), and Brandon (Bsh) Sand Hills. The model is based on W(%), the percent of time that winds are above the threshold of erosion, and P:PE, the ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (Thornthwaite method). The arrow for each focus area shows the change from 1961-1990 normals to the 2050s. The red line within each arrow shows the range of variation among the five GCM scenarios.

Dunes in the Fort à la Corne/Nisbet Sand Hills (Fsh) are presently modelled as inactive, and predicted to remain inactive in the 2050s (Figure 17). Inactivity in these areas is a function of both the comparatively high existing P:PE ratios (0.80 to 0.86) and comparatively low winds (W = 18%). Forest cover in these areas presently provides adequate protection from wind erosion and projected changes are unlikely to reduce vegetation cover to the extent that the dunes would become active.

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The Brandon Sand Hills (Bsh) and Manito Lake Sand Hills (MLsh) are presently modelled as inactive, and predicted to remain inactive under 2050s scenarios. In reality, some dunes at Brandon and Manito are presently active, either due to past disturbance or drought. Dunes in the Manito area show partial activity on south-facing slopes, suggesting that some of this activity can be attributed to drier soils resulting from higher incoming solar radiation (insolation) on these slopes. Although these areas are modelled as remaining inactive with climate change, in both locations they approach the threshold for activity on dune crests. Consequently, any increase in winds, either accompanying climate change or due to acceleration around local topography, could result in increased activity on the crests of dunes.

The Dundurn Sand Hills (Dsh) are modelled as inactive under present climatic conditions, but to have active crests under some of the 2050s scenarios. Therefore, this area should be considered at risk to reactivation with climate change.

The Great Sand Hills and Middle Sand Hills are modelled as presently having active dune crests, and to continue to have active crests under all of the 2050s scenarios. The Middle Sand Hills are presently in the most arid part of the Canadian prairies (P:PE = 0.51), and are expected to experience even drier conditions with climate change. The Great Sand Hills, although less arid than the Middle Sand Hills, are similar in terms of dune activity, due to slightly stronger winds in this area. Higher winds in this area may be due to topographic steering around the Cypress Hills, or other more localized topographic effects. The predominantly grassland vegetation in the Great Sand Hills and Middle Sand Hills results in a higher risk of increased dune activity than in other study areas.

6.4 Summary of potential impacts

On the basis of the above analyses, the following impacts of climate change on the focus areas in the 2050s are likely:

1. Average temperatures will increase at all areas, with changes on the order of 2.5 to 5.0°C. Warming will occur in all seasons. 2. Annual precipitation will probably increase somewhat at all areas (scenarios vary from essentially no change to an increase of about 50 mm). 3. Moisture availability will decrease somewhat at all areas. P:PE ratios will decrease more markedly in the moister focus areas and less so in the drier ones. 4. Because of the shift to drier climates, the potential for dune activity will increase, particularly in the driest focus areas (Dundurn, Great, and Middle Sand Hills). Dune activation is not a uniform process, but may develop in certain locations following a series of dry years. If significant areas of active dunes develop, this could reduce the amount of productive vegetation for livestock grazing and wildlife habitat. 5. Increased potential for dune activity could increase erosion problems associated with roads, wellsites, or military operations. The option of winter-only operations (e.g. for well-drilling) will become less viable as milder winters reduce the period over which soil is frozen. 6. All areas will change to a climate which is less suitable for tree growth, although forest patches may persist for a long time, depending on the amount of disturbance which will promote vegetation change. This impact will vary among focus areas, which range from low to high tree cover along the gradient from dry to moist climates. The impact will be greatest

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for Fort à la Corne, currently almost entirely forested, which will shift to a climate which apparently only supports grassland. Timber production at Fort à la Corne will decline as the climate becomes less conducive to tree growth, and eventually disappear as forest is converted to non-forest. However, the shift from a mosaic of woody and grassy types towards more uniform grassland will have a significant impact on all areas. 7. In grasslands, the climate will increasingly favour warm-season (C4) over cool-season (C3) grasses. The presence of native warm-season grasses including sand reed grass, sand dropseed, blue grama, and (at Brandon) big bluestem means that grasslands will have a considerable capacity to adjust to climate change by shifts in proportions of species already present. A more gradual process will be the northward migration of species which are currently absent or uncommon in Canadian grasslands, especially warm-season grasses such as sand bluestem, sandhill muhly, and switchgrass. 8. The impact on grazing capacity is not clear. The shift to a somewhat drier climate suggests reduced forage production, and this is supported by simple production models which show decreased yields in the 2050s. However, current grazing capacity of analogue areas in the United States is rated higher than in the Canadian focus areas, with the higher proportion of warm-season grasses and the lower woody cover possibly contributing to this difference. Forested areas such as Fort à la Corne are most likely to increase in grazing capacity with

loss of tree cover. Moreover, direct CO2 fertilization will tend to counterbalance the depressing effect on yield of a drier climate. 9. Shallow groundwater is a major resource in sand dunes, used for livestock watering and domestic supply. The change to a drier climate could result in lowering of water tables. However, the scenarios suggest an increase in winter precipitation, and snowmelt plays a major role in recharging groundwater. Without further analysis, the probable impacts on groundwater are unclear. 10. Shifts in vegetation patterns will be accompanied by shifts in other species, because of both habitat changes and direct climatic effects (e.g. temperature tolerances, amount of snow cover). The loss of forest cover will result in loss of forest-dependent plant and animal species. Habitat will become less suitable for “edge” species such as white-tailed deer, but more suitable for open grassland species. On the other hand, any tendency towards dune activation will help to maintain habitat for species (including plants, mammals, and arthropods) which require active dunes. New species with southern ranges will gradually migrate into the focus areas from sand dune areas in the U.S. Great Plains, with rapidly dispersing species arriving first and others more slowly or not at all. Disruption of communities could increase opportunities for invasion by Eurasian exotics.

Stakeholder evaluation of potential impacts was provided by a workshop held in March 2001. Stakeholder representatives from dune areas across the Prairie Provinces were brought together to discuss climate change concerns and potential adaptation measures. After a presentation of the climate change scenarios and potential impacts as discussed above, three working groups were formed, approximately according to ecoregions: Mixed Grassland, Moist Mixed Grassland/Aspen Parkland, and Aspen Parkland/Boreal Transition. The working groups were asked to list the climate change impacts of greatest concern for their areas (Table 16). For dune-specific concerns, see the individual dune area descriptions in Appendix 5.

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Table 16: Climate Change Impacts of Greatest Concern in Focus Dune Areas: Stakeholder Response

Moist Mixed Boreal Transition / Mixed Grassland Grassland / Aspen Aspen Parkland ecoregion (Middle Parkland ecoregions Concerns and Great Sand ecoregions (Brandon and Fort Hills) (Dundurn and à la Corne Sand Manito Sand Hills) Hills)

Changes in faunal species composition and !!! distribution

Changes in vegetation cover and species !!! composition

Invasion of exotic species !!!

Changes to grazing capacity and livestock !! watering areas

Increased disease and insect infestations !

Lowering of water table !!!

Increased fire hazards !!!

Increased dune destabilization !!

Increased erosion potential !

Rate of change and frequency of extreme climatic ! events

Social implications of climate change !!

Urbanization !

Lack of baseline information !

The main issues that affect all ecoregions are: changes in wildlife distribution and species composition (flora and fauna), invasion of exotic species, lowering of the water table, and increased fire hazards. Concerns specific to the grassland/parkland ecoregions include changes to grazing capacity and livestock watering, increased dune destabilization, and increased erosion potential. The main issue specific to the boreal/parkland group was increased disease and insect infestations, which was related to forest pests such as dwarf mistletoe and forest tent caterpillar. Note that a few concerns, namely extreme climatic events, urbanization, lack of baseline information, erosion potential, and infestations, are listed by only one working group. This does not necessarily imply that these concerns are specific to these ecoregions. Rather, they may be specific to a particular dune area within that ecoregion (e.g. encroaching urbanization from Saskatoon onto the Dundurn Sand Hills) or they may be an issue that simply was not discussed by the other ecoregion working groups.

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7 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

7.1 Overview

If climate does in fact change as predicted by current GCMs, many physical, biological, economic and social impacts can be expected (Herrington et al., 1997). In order to minimize the harmful effects of these changes, and to maximize the potential benefits, it is important to consider the suite of adaptation options available and to develop an adaptation strategy for coping with climatic change.

A review of the adaptation literature was carried out and used to develop the following list of considerations. The framework is comprised of four main stages, each consisting of a series of questions. It draws heavily from the work of Smit et al., 2000, Smit et al., 1999, and Carter et al., 1994. Comments from Yohe, 2000, Ribsey et al., 1999, Wheaton and MacIver, 1999, Smith et al., 1996, Smit, 1993, and Stakhiv, 1993 are also included.

7.2 Approaching an Adaptation Strategy

STAGE 1: RECOGNIZE THAT CLIMATE CHANGE MAY AFFECT CURRENT LIFESTYLES

The first step towards determining adaptation options and developing an adaptation strategy is to recognize that climate change may affect current lifestyles. One needs to know the magnitude, regional extent, frequency, duration, speed of onset, and seasonality of potential climatic changes. Knowledge of the most probable time and space scales involved would also be beneficial. For instance, adaptation to localized extreme events may be quite different from adaptation to regional changes in long-term variability.

Given these potential changes, both harmful and beneficial impacts on current land use activities need to be considered. Severity is also of concern, because an impact that can be reversed or mitigated would be less severe than an irreversible or unmitigatable impact.

STAGE 2: UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM(S) THAT MUST ADAPT

Once sufficient knowledge has been gained regarding the characteristics of potential changes and the resulting impacts, the second stage involves gaining a better understanding of the actual system(s) that must adapt. First, the social, economic, and/or ecological systems most vulnerable to the anticipated changes must be determined by assessing system stability, sensitivity, vulnerability, flexibility, susceptibility, and resilience.

Specific goals and objectives could then be set for a given system to represent the most desirable end state. Given these objectives, the particular stakeholders who need to take action for adaptation to occur can then be identified. The stakeholders involved will vary with the spatial scale of the desirable adaptations. For instance, adaptation at the farm level would likely require the involvement of a local farmer, whereas adaptation across an entire region would require a more diverse suite of stakeholders.

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STAGE 3: UNDERSTAND THE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES THAT ARE AVAILABLE

Once climate changes, associated impacts, vulnerable systems, and stakeholders have been identified, particular adaptation strategies can be considered. Selecting adaptation options involves three main questions. First, the purpose of adaptation must be defined. Will adaptation measures be changing the use or location of an activity, preventing, tolerating, or spreading/sharing the potential losses, or restoring the system of concern? Will adaptive measures be reactive or anticipatory?

Second, the time and space scales over which adaptation will occur needs to be outlined. Is a short or long time frame being considered? Will adaptation be local or widespread? Will adaptation require individual or aggregate social responses?

Finally, adaptation options must be considered. This could include listing past, present, and potential adaptation strategies, as well as considering different types of adaptation strategies . For example, adaptation can be structural, legal, institutional, regulatory, educational, financial, behavioural, or technological.

STAGE 4: COMPARE ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Although there will be a wide range of potential adaptation options, some will likely be more feasible or desirable than others. Barriers to implementing the available adaptation strategies must be considered in order to narrow the selection to the best alternatives. These include legislative, social, cultural, physical, biological, institutional, market, and/or technological barriers. Knowing the relative ease of overcoming each of these barriers is useful in determining the most feasible adaptation options.

The effectiveness of each adaptation option should also be addressed. This includes considering which options address the highest priority needs such as irreversible or catastrophic consequences, the implementation of actions that have long response-times, or rectification of unfavourable trends. The costs associated with implementation should also be considered, as should the amount of public support each of the options is likely to gain.

Other considerations that may help select the best adaptation options include assessing the implementability, flexibility, and risk level of each adaptation option, considering the net benefits (both those associated and unassociated with climate change), and determining how adaptation options fit with local priorities.

To summarize, a checklist of adaptation options and benefits could be developed, with adaptation options listed in the leftmost column and benefits listed across the top, as in Table 17.

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Table 17: A checklist of adaptation options and benefits

Strategy Implementable? Flexible? Inexpensive? Address etc... Objectives?

Option 1

Option 2

etc...

Adaptation options could also be compared using various ranking techniques. Examples of such techniques include:

! cost-benefit analysis - use common monetary value for all benefits and costs associated with each strategy; note that some costs and benefits cannot be easily translated into monetary value; ! cost-effectiveness analysis - evaluate different strategies using the expenses involved to reach a certain level of benefit; the least expensive alternatives are ranked higher; ! multi-criteria analysis - a non-quantitative approach to see how well strategies address multiple objectives; however, all it may not be possible to rank all cases; ! weighting - determine weights for each objective according to preferences and compare the effectiveness of different strategies in meeting these ranked objectives; look at all strategies vs. all objectives to see costs and benefits associated with each;

Regardless of which adaptation options are selected in the end, assumptions and uncertainties involved in the evaluation procedure should always be outlined, along with the rationale used to narrow choices.

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8 CLIMATE CHANGE AND MANAGEMENT PLANNING IN THE FOCUS AREAS

8.1 Overview

The purpose of evaluating management plans and other documents is to identify whether or not the issue of climate change and its effects are being addressed for each focus area. Through the evaluation of these management documents, plan components that are sensitive to climate change were identified. This provided the basis for considering plan modifications needed to adapt to climate change.

Since most of the areas do not have one formal management plan, a number of documents related to management planning, including environmental assessments, wildlife inventories, and research reports, were evaluated (list of references in Table 3). Also, the stakeholder workshop in March, 2001, provided first-hand insight into land uses, issues, and possible adaptations in the focus areas (Appendix 5). Many land uses are not based on formal management plans (Table 4). However, they can still be considered intentional management actions which can be changed to adapt to climate change. The framework for reviewing this material involved asking the following questions:

How adequate is the biophysical inventory, which provides the basis for monitoring and planning? Do management plans incorporate mechanisms for adaptive management (e.g. monitoring, scheduled plan review, revision of plan) which will help to adapt to climate change? Is climate change considered explicitly in management plans or other documents? How sensitive are plan components or land uses to climate change? What are the implications of modification or abandonment of plan components/land uses to costs and benefits for stakeholders? What are some approaches to adaptation to climate change?

The results of the assessment are presented in a series of tables, covering:

biophysical inventories management planning plan components and land uses impacted by climate change adaptive responses

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8.2 Biophysical Inventory

Middle Detailed biophysical inventory for entire area, including vegetation (Adams et al., 1997) , flora (Macdonald, 1997), wetlands (Adams et al., 1998), avifauna (Dale et al., 1999), raptors (Banasch and Barry, 1998), carnivores (Carbyn et al., 1999), ungulates (Shandruk et al., 1998), small mammals (Reynolds et al., 1999), reptiles and amphibians (Didiuk, 1999), arthropods (Finnamore and Buckle, 1999). Use of permanent sample points in these inventories will facilitate future monitoring. Arthropod inventory includes discussion of shifts in communities with climate change. Great General biophysical inventory (landforms, flora, fauna, general description of vegetation patterns) for entire area (Epp and Townley-Smith, 1980), detailed vegetation inventory for portions of area (Thorpe and Godwin, 1997), but no detailed inventory covering all of area. Dundurn/ Detailed biophysical inventory for CFD Dundurn (Dillon Consulting Ltd., Pike Lake 1998a). Use of permanent sample points in these inventories will facilitate future monitoring. Range inventory for Rudy-Rosedale PFRA Community Pasture (Houston, 1998). Manito Lake Intermediate-level vegetation inventory for entire area (Thorpe and Godwin, 1993). Inventory of significant migratory bird habitats (Farrington and Taylor, 1992). Some unpublished range assessments. Brandon Detailed biophysical inventory (vegetation, flora, birds) for Spruce Woods Provincial Park (Higgs and Holland, 1999). Range inventory for Langford Community Pasture (PFRA) (Chu et al., 1998-1999). Inventory of CFB Shilo? Fort à la Vegetation patterns are shown by SERM forest cover maps for entire area. Land Corne/Nisbet uses are inventoried by SERM (1999, 2000) but no biophysical inventory has been done.

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8.3 Management Planning

Middle A management plan for the Suffield National Wildlife Area which encompasses the Middle Sand Hills is under development. The area is currently managed by Canadian Wildlife Service for conservation purposes. Military use is limited in the sand hills because of environmental sensitivity, with no vehicle traffic allowed. However, fires associated with target practice burn the sand hills. Oil/gas development is ongoing. Sport hunting is apparently not allowed. Great Land use strategy has been developed (SEPS, 1991), leading to formation of Great Sandhills Planning Commission made up of four rural municipalities covering the area. Bylaws of rural municipalities are used to implement development and zoning plans (Cheesman 1997a, 1997b). These are aimed at protecting the agricultural land- base, screening and regulating developments such as gas drilling, roads, utility corridors, and tourism operations, and protecting environmentally sensitive areas. For example, the r.m. can direct where trails may be routed or require reclamation to reduce impact on the sensitive landscape. The Great Sand Hills is divided into four zones according to environmental sensitivity, with different uses permitted in each. The Land Use Strategy discusses the role of climate change in the Great Sand Hills, but climate change is not explicitly considered in management practices, and mechanisms for monitoring/plan review have not been established.

Gas developments are regulated by provincial government policy. For example, SAF (no date) details restoration requirements (e.g. use of native grass seed) for developments on Crown rangelands. Individual petroleum companies develop environmental protection plans in order to comply with government regulations. These may include practices such as supervision of operations by an Environmental Monitor, avoiding sensitive terrain, using common routes to reduce proliferation of roads, controlling erosion along roads, controlling waste disposal, and revegetation of wellsites, trails, and pipelines (e.g. Western Oilfield Environmental Services Ltd., 1990, 1991). Some monitoring is done to ensure compliance with plans (e.g. ERIN Consulting Ltd., 2000).

Grazing is practised on individual ranches, grazing co-ops, and community pastures, but no formal range management plans for these areas have been found. Stocking rates on the Crown lease lands, which account for most grazing, are set by Sask. Agriculture and Food policy, and are based on standards in Abouguendia (1990). Range assessment standards are based on current climate and do not address climate change. There is no regular program of range monitoring in place.

Most of the Crown land is designated under the Wildlife Habitat Protection Act, which prevents disturbances such as clearing and breaking.

Sport hunting is regulated by the provincial wildlife agency.

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Dundurn/ Environmental impact assessment has been completed for CFD Dundurn, showing Pike Lake that 30% of the area has been disturbed, mainly by frequent fires in detonation area, erosion along roads and fireguards, and cattle grazing impacts (Dillon Consulting Ltd., 1998b). No management plan has been completed, and there has been no consideration of climate change impacts or monitoring requirements.

Range management plan for Rudy-Rosedale PFRA community pasture (Houston, 1998). PFRA pastures receive range monitoring at intervals of approximately 10 years. Stocking rates are based on standard tables assuming current climate (e.g. Abouguendia, 1990); there is not method of accounting for climate change.

Sport hunting is regulated by the provincial wildlife agency.

Cranberry Flats and Beaver Creek Conservation Areas are included in a general development plan for municipal lands along the east bank of the South Saskatchewan River (Hilderman et al., 1996). A monitoring program based is recommended in this plan. Small-scale actions to manage pedestrian traffic, stabilize dunes, and control exotic species are conducted by Meewasin Valley Authority.

Education and research are important uses at municipal properties as well as a parcel owned by the University of Saskatchewan.

Acreage developments are regulated by municipal bylaws.

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Manito Land use plan has been developed for entire area, with emphasis on protecting Lake sensitive landscape and wildlife from development impacts, especially related to oil and gas (Manitou Sand Hills Land Use Planning Committee, 1996). The area is divided into three zones, with different uses permitted in each. In the Prime Conservation Area, oil/gas development will not be allowed until ecological standards are developed and industry demonstrates the ability to meet them. Outside this area, oil/gas development is allowed subject to provincial regulations for environmental protection. For livestock grazing (mainly on Crown lease land organized into grazing co-ops), the plan directs that a range management plan be developed, and that a range monitoring program be implemented and used for plan review. Climate change is not explicitly considered in the plan.

Individual petroleum companies develop environmental protection plans, similar to those discussed for the Great Sand Hills, in order to comply with government regulations (e.g. Eco-Logic Consulting, 1999; Golder Associates, 1997; Western Oilfield Environmental Services Ltd., 1997).

Most of the Crown land is designated under the Wildlife Habitat Protection Act, which prohibits clearing and breaking.

Sport hunting is regulated by the provincial wildlife agency. Brandon CFB Shilo is heavily impacted by military use, including vegetation destruction by tracked vehicles and frequent fires in live-firing areas (Marr Consulting & Communications Ltd., 1995). A management plan for CFB Shilo has not been seen.

Spruce Woods Provincial Park is managed mainly for recreation and conservation. A Backcountry Plan (MNR, 1995) and a Prairie Management Plan (Schylkulski and Moore, 2000) have been developed. The Backcountry Plan includes trail planning to reduce vehicle impact, control of exotic plant species, and reduction of cultivation. The Prairie Management Plan includes prescribed burning and mowing to control invasion by shrubs and trees, and chemical and biological control of exotic species (especially smooth brome and leafy spurge). Monitoring is recommended to measure success of treatments. There is no consideration of climate change in management plans.

Range management plan has been completed for Langford PFRA Community Pasture (Chu et al., 1998-1999). Range monitoring in PFRA pastures is generally repeated at intervals of several years.

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Fort à la Land use plans for Fort à la Corne and Nisbet Provincial Forests are under Corne/ development. The background document for the Fort à la Corne land use plan Nisbet (SERM, 1999) lists global warming as one of the issues to be considered. It also discusses possible management practices, such as coordinated timber harvesting to break up fuel continuity patterns and reduce the risk of large fires.

Lands are designated as Provincial Forest, so uses are regulated by provincial government legislation and policy. Timber-harvesting is regulated by Sask. Environment and Resource Management (SERM). The allowable harvest is calculated on the basis of current growth and age structure, renewal, and health, and is allocated by SERM to a variety of users. This procedure assumes the production under the current climate, and does not account for climate change. A monitoring program for forest ecosystem health is under development.

Other uses such as grazing, mushroom picking, trapping, and sport hunting are also regulated by permits or licenses issued by SERM.

Livestock grazing is regulated under grazing permits issued by SERM. There is no program of regular range monitoring.

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8.4 Plan Components or Land Uses Impacted by Climate Change

Livestock grazing Great Impacts on forage production and grazing capacity are unclear. Shift to somewhat drier climate tends to reduce production; however shift from woody/grassy mosaic to more uniform Shift to somewhat drier climate Dundurn/ grassland, increase in warm-season grasses, and may lower water tables, possibly Pike Lake reducing watering sources for increase in CO2 fertilization tend to increase production. livestock. Manito Increased potential for dune Lake Shift to warmer and drier climate will increase fire hazard. Any increase in accidental fires will activation may increase erosion result in temporary loss of forage production as problems associated with Brandon well as damage to fences and other facilities. livestock trails (especially ridge Removal of vegetation by fire can also contribute crossings) and concentration to dune activation under dry conditions. areas (e.g. around water sources). Fort à la Gradual shift from conifer forest to more open Corne/ vegetation will increase forage production and Nisbet grazing capacity.

Forestry Fort à la Shift to climate unsuitable for tree growth will lead to reduced growth rates. Corne/ Increasing tree mortality may occur on dry sites in dry years. Trees may have lower Nisbet resistance to stress (e.g. greater damage resulting from dwarf mistletoe infection).

Warmer and somewhat drier climate will lead to increased fire hazard (i.e. more frequent years with high fire hazard) and higher probability of insect epidemics (e.g. spruce budworm, forest tent caterpillar).

Natural or artificial regeneration following fire, insects, mistletoe, or harvesting may fail in dry years. If not corrected, this may lead to conversion of forest to shrubland or grassland.

Milder winters and increased snowfall will reduce the extent of frozen ground for winter operations in wet areas.

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Oil/Gas/Mining Middle Increased potential for dune activation may increase erosion problems at oil/gas roads and wellsites. Great Milder winters will reduce the potential for operations using frozen ground to Manito Lake reduce impact on sensitive terrain. Fort à la Increased potential for dune activation may increase erosion problems associated Corne/Nisbet with mine development.

Military Middle Little impact because military activities in dunes are limited? Dundurn/ Increased potential for dune activation may increase erosion problems associated Pike Lake with military roads and fireguards.

Shift to warmer and somewhat drier climate may increase fire hazard, leading to increased disturbance in detonation areas, and contributing to increased dune activation. Brandon Increased potential for dune activation may increase erosion problems associated with military roads, fireguards, and tracked vehicles.

Shift to warmer and somewhat drier climate may increase fire hazard, leading to increased disturbance in detonation areas, and contributing to increased dune activation.

Recreation Middle

Great Increased potential for dune activation may increase erosion problems from Dundurn/ pedestrian traffic in intensive recreation sites (especially in Dundurn/Pike Lake Pike Lake Sand Hills. However, it may increase recreation/interpretation associated with active dunes. Manito Lake Brandon Loss of wooded cover will reduce suitability for ski trails in Spruce Woods Provincial Park. Fort à la Loss of forest cover will reduce potential for forest-based recreation such as Corne/ snowmobile trails, ski trails, moose/elk/bear hunting. Nisbet Increase in potential for dune activation may increase the erosion problems caused by motorized recreation vehicles.

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Conservation Middle Shifts in vegetation patterns will be accompanied by shifts in ranges of plant and Increased potential for dune activation will help animal species, both because Impacts on game species Great to maintain habitat for of direct climatic effects are unclear. Less forest species (including (e.g. temperature tolerances, and shrubland will be plants, mammals, and amount of snow cover) and available for cover-using arthropods) which changes in habitat. For species such as white- require active dunes. Dundurn/ example, loss of shrub cover tailed deer. However, Pike Lake may reduce small mammal milder winters will populations on which raptors reduce winter mortality depend. and need for thermal Manito cover. Reduction in Lake New species with southern shrub types may reduce ranges will gradually migrate nesting cover for sharp- into the focus areas from tailed grouse. sand dune areas in the U.S. Brandon Great Plains, with rapidly dispersing species arriving The loss of forest cover first and others more slowly will result in loss of or not at all. forest-dependent plant and animal species. Fort à la Forest-dependent game Corne/ Disruption of communities species such as moose, Nisbet could increase opportunities elk, and black bear will for invasion by Eurasian probably decline as exotics. forests are converted to grassland and shrubland.

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8.5 Adaptive Responses

General Middle Existing management planning and practices in the focus areas are more protective and conservation-oriented than in most parts of the Prairies. Overall progress on land-use planning is also relatively advanced Great (especially in Great and Manito Lake Sand Hills). These factors will facilitate adaptation to climate Vegetation monitoring programs should change impacts. be designed to include indicators of climate change impacts, e.g.: Detailed biophysical inventories -long term trends in grassland Dundurn/ should be completed for all areas to productivity and species composition Pike Lake form baseline for monitoring. measured in a network of fenced range benchmark sites. Land use plans should be developed - use repeat aerial photographs for for all areas and should consider the monitoring of changes in woodland/ impacts of climate change on future grassland mosaic over large areas. Manito Lake uses.

Land use plans should incorporate mechanisms for adaptive management: monitoring, scheduled plan review and revision. Brandon Monitoring of reference wells should be used to detect long-term changes Fort à la in groundwater levels. If long-term Forest monitoring programs should be Corne/ lowering of water tables is detected, designed to include indicators of climate Nisbet water management strategies may be change impacts, e.g. required to allocate groundwater i) long-term changes in tree growth rates among users. S incidence of drought-related tree mortality, especially on the driest sites Communication with managers and S incidence of insects and diseases (e.g. other stakeholders should continue forest tent caterpillar, spruce to increase awareness of climate budworm, dwarf mistletoe?) change impacts and adaptation. S changes in plantation survival

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Livestock grazing Great Recommended stocking rates and range condition assessment tables should be revised (e.g. Wroe et al., 1988; Abouguendia, 1990) as information on long-term changes emerges from monitoring of range benchmarks sites (see above). Dundurn/ Pike Lake Benefits and ecological consequences of introducing warm-season grasses from nearby North American ranges, such as sand bluestem, should be reviewed. While Manito reseeding of existing grasslands is undesirable, use of such species in reclamation Lake may help with adaptation to climate change.

Brandon Better fire-fighting capabilities may have to be organized to protect rangelands as the frequency of high fire hazard increases. Fort à la Livestock grazing will increase in importance as dominant land use. Stocking rates Corne/ used for Provincial Forest grazing permits will have to be adjusted as monitoring Nisbet indicates vegetation changes.

Forestry Fort à la Calculations of allowable harvest, and harvest allocations to individual operators, Corne/Nis may require adjustment as evidence from monitoring programs shows changes in bet growth rate or incidence of disturbance.

Increased spending on regeneration following harvest or disturbance may be needed to cope with regeneration failures. Research on optimal harvest and regeneration methods for dry conditions is needed.

Increased fire protection may be needed as frequency of high fire hazard increases. Planned timber harvesting to interrupt the continuity of high-hazard fuels should be implemented.

Benefits and ecological consequences of introducing species from nearby North American ranges, such as red pine (native in southeastern Manitoba), should be reviewed. Use of such species in regeneration programs may help to maintain forest cover in a warmer climate, as well as addressing the dwarf mistletoe problem in the native jack pine.

Timber-using industries should plan for the possibility of reduced timber supply from climatically marginal areas such as Fort à la Corne/Nisbet.

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Oil/Gas/Mining Middle Appropriate policies and regulations are already in place to control the impact of oil/gas activities on soil erosion. However, these policies may have to be applied more stringently as the climatic potential for dune activation increases. The range Great of sites considered too sensitive for oil/gas development may expand, and there may be increasing need for reclamation practices. There will be increasing impetus for Manito development of low-impact practices for drilling and extraction and for research on Lake reclamation practices. Fort à la Planning and reclamation will be needed to control erosion caused by potential Corne/ diamond mine. Nisbet

Military Middle Increased potential for dune activation may require greater limitations on military activities on sensitive sites, and increased reclamation efforts where erosion has Dundurn/ started. Pike Lake With increasing frequency of high fire hazard, more effort will be required in fire Brandon prevention and control.

Recreation Great Existing dispersed recreation will require minimal adaptation. Dundurn/ Intensive recreation sites may require more trail development to control pedestrian Pike Lake impacts, and more reclamation of disturbed sites. Manito Existing dispersed recreation will require minimal adaptation. Lake Brandon Active management to control brush encroachment on grassland patches could be eliminated as the climate shifts to one less conducive to woody growth. Monitoring is needed to detect any long-term change in brush encroachment.

Intensive recreation sites may require more trail development to control pedestrian impacts, and more reclamation of disturbed sites. Forest-based recreation facilities such as snowmobile and ski trails may require Fort à la rerouting. Corne/ Nisbet Greater regulation may be required for motorized recreation vehicle use on sensitive sites.

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Conservation Middle All focus areas are to some extent islands of natural vegetation, and as such are considered important for conservation of wildlife habitat and biodiversity. Current concepts of conservation are based on maintaining all of the species and ecosystems which are currently present (or were present in recent history). However, climate change would result in shifts as some current species become poorly adapted to new Great conditions. This will require a rethinking of conservation policy: should local decline in a particular species be opposed, or accepted as inevitable under the changed climate? This particularly affects management of areas used primarily for conservation, such as Suffield National Wildlife Area and Spruce Woods Provincial Park. Dundurn/ Pike Lake Changes in habitats for game species will require surveys to monitor population changes. In the long run, adjustments to hunting seasons may be required.

Manito Intentional introductions of species from warmer parts of North America also require Lake more study. Under current conservation thinking, such introductions into areas of natural vegetation are opposed because these species are exotic to the local area. However, species which are native to nearby areas may eventually arrive anyway, and are less likely than Eurasian exotics to be ecologically disruptive. Intentional Brandon earlier introduction may be a useful tool for adaptation to climate change. Research is needed into the role of such introductions and their ecological consequences, to help in developing policy on their use.

Any increase in opportunities for invasion by Eurasian exotics will reinforce the Fort à la need for measures such as screening intentional introductions for invasive potential, Corne/ preventing unintentional transport (e.g. in contaminated seed), avoiding creation of Nisbet establishment sites (e.g. disturbed roadsides or well-sites), and active control of existing populations.

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Stetler, L.D. and D.R. Gaylord. 1996. Evaluating eolian-climate interactions using a regional climate model from Hanford, Washington (USA); Geomorphology, 17: 99-113.

Stocks, B.J. 1993. Global warming and forest fires in Canada. The Forestry Chronicle, 69(3): 290- 293.

Stocks, B.J., M.A. Fosberg, T.J. Lynham, L. Mearns, B.M. Wotton, Q. Yang, J-Z. Jin, K. Lawrence, G.R. Hartley, J.A. Mason, and D.W. McKenney. 1998. Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests. Climatic Change, 38: 1-13.

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APPENDIX 1

Literature Review: Climate Change and Sand Dunes in the Prairie Provinces

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Appendix 1 Literature Review: Climate change and Sand Dunes in the Prairie Provinces

Climate Change in the Prairie Provinces

The global climate is complex and ever changing. Historically, the earth has endured long glacial periods which have alternated with warmer interglacial periods. These fluctuations of the earth's surface temperature were directly related to levels of greenhouse gases found in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases, such as water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (NOx), act as the earth's insulator by absorbing radiation. Studies of ice-core data have shown that low levels of greenhouse gases were present in the atmosphere during glacial periods and high levels of these gases during inter-glacial periods, suggesting that climate change is a natural process (Canadian Climate Program Board, 1998).

In recent decades, however, it has become increasingly evident that a human-induced change in climate is occurring along with the natural variations. For most of the time since the end of the last continental glaciation, approximately 10,000 years ago, carbon dioxide and methane levels have been stable. However, during the last 200 years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have risen by 30%, 145% and 15% respectively, and now exceed any levels from the past 200,000 years. This increase in greenhouse gases has come about principally through the burning of fossil fuels for energy, and secondarily through land use changes such as deforestation (Canadian Climate Program Board, 1998). This period has also seen a rise in global temperatures. The most recent analysis, reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report, shows a 0.6 C rise in average global surface temperatures over the past 100 to 140 years (IPCC WGI, 2001). Moreover, according to the Third Assessment Report, analysis of proxy temperature records (e.g. tree rings) indicates that the 1990s was the warmest decade for the globe in the past 1000 years. This warming has not been uniform, but has been most prominent in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. In fact, the prairies and the northwestern forest regions of Canada have experienced temperature increases of about 0.9°C and 1.3°C respectively (Herrington et al., 1997). According to the Third Assessment Report, variation in natural factors such as solar irradiance and volcanic activity has had a relatively minor impact during this period, whereas models taking into account both natural factors and the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases are sufficient to explain the recent warming (IPCC WGI, 2001).

Projecting climate change into the future has required sophisticated computer simulations called general circulation models, or GCMs. GCMs use highly powerful programs that are able to simulate global climate in both time and space (Hengeveld, 2000). Results vary among individual models, and with different assumptions about future emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. However, the range of scenarios considered by the Third Assessment Report all project further increases, varying from 1.4 C to 5.8 C, in global surface temperature by 2100, a change without precedent in the past 10,000 years. Simulations also project greater than average warming over northern North America and Asia. For midlatitude continental interiors, such as the Canadian Prairies, increased summer drying and risk of drought is considered likely (IPCC WGII, 2001).

The most severe consequence of climate change for the Canadian prairies may be increased frequency and severity of droughts. In the past century the prairies have experienced two periods of

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 1-3 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 abnormally high temperatures accompanied with abnormally low levels of precipitation: the 1930s and the 1980s. The drought of the 1980s was more severe than that of the 1930s mostly due to higher mean temperatures. The mean temperature during the summer of 1988 was 4°C to 7°C above normal and in some areas was determined to be the hottest summer ever recorded (Arthur and Chorney, 1992). Although these most recent episodes of drought have appeared severe because of their social and economic impacts, there is evidence that the prairies have endured much more severe periods of drought. Proxy records showed a long-term drought which occurred between 7,000 and 5,000 years ago. During that period the mean annual temperature was 1°C to 2°C warmer and the mean annual precipitation was 15 percent lower than that of the present (Vance et al., 1995). Proxy records also show that the most severe drought of the past 500 years occurred between 1791and 1800 (Case and Macdonald, 1995).

According to the Palmer Drought Index analysis conducted by Williams et al. (1988), a 2xCO2 climate change scenario would bring about a more drought-prone climate in the southern parts of the prairies with an increase in length and frequency of drought. However, there will continue to be variability in precipitation, with some wet years, but increased frequency of dry years.

Climate Change and Dune Destabilization

Sand dunes in the Prairie Provinces are often seen as climatic indicators due to their sensitivity to climate change (Muhs and Wolfe, 1999). Evidence for this sensitivity is shown by the fact that many dunes which are presently stabilized were last active in the Holocene period (Ahlbrandt et al., 1983) when the climate was not much different from the present. Wolfe et al. (1995) were able to find a strong link between aridity and dune activity through the evaluation of the Great Sand Hills through optical dating. They found that dunes could have been active as recently as 200 years ago while a period of stability occurred between 200 and 600 years ago, corresponding to the Little Ice Age, a period of cool climate. They also found that there has been a general increase in dune stability from 1944 to the present as the climatic moisture regime increased, with a slight increase in dune activity occurring in the late 1980s, corresponding to a period of severe drought. With this historical evidence, it seems likely that dune activity may increase in the future under predicted climate change conditions of increased aridity.

Before we can consider the effects of climate change on dunes we must first evaluate the factors that contribute to dune stability. Two important factors that affect dune stability are the climate’s influence on the rate and type of moisture input and the ability of dune sand and underlying substrate to retain moisture (Lemmen et al., 1998).

Moisture input influences surface soil moisture, which plays a dual role in dune stabilization. It can both inhibit the entrainment and transport of sediment by wind and promote vegetation growth. Belly (1964) showed that sand-sized material with only a 5% moisture content is resistant to entrainment by most natural winds. Therefore dunes can remain relatively stable under normal wind conditions with very little surface moisture. Surface soil moisture also promotes dune stabilization by aiding in vegetation growth. Vegetation protects sand dunes from erosion by: covering the sand surface, thus sheltering the sand from the force of the wind; extracting momentum from the wind, reducing its force near the ground; and trapping moving sand particles by creating a sediment catchment (Van de Ven et al., 1989). Groundwater levels are also very important for the support of vegetation growth

1-4 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 on dunes. As reported by Abouguendia (1981), a rise in groundwater level can cause a shift toward increased dune stability through increased vegetation growth.

The ability of the sand to retain moisture and thus sustain vegetation growth and dune stability is a function of grain size. Vegetation colonization tends to occur most uniformly on fine-grained sand dunes and more sporadically on coarse-grained sand dunes. Vegetation also grows at different rates depending on the location on the dune itself. In general, vegetation grows most successfully at the front of the dune as well as at the base of the wings of a parabolic dune due to the close proximity of groundwater recharge by snow melt (Lemmen et al., 1998).

Muhs and Maat (1993) developed a dune mobility index which incorporates wind strength and the ratio of mean annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. The model predicted the reactivation of areas of stabilized dunes in the semi-arid Great Plains due to GCM-predicted temperature increases and precipitation decreases. The model showed that many of the dunes in those areas would be highly active with only stable interdune zones, resulting in a landscape similar to that of the late Holocene (3500-1500 years B.P.). Stetler and Gaylord (1996) used a Regional Climate Model which incorporated precipitation, temperature and wind speed for a site in Washington to predict a 400% increase in sand dune mobility associated with a 4°C increase in temperature.

Under climate change conditions, large dunes can be expected to reactivate more quickly than small dunes as they are almost entirely reliant on precipitation for moisture. However, with increasing depletion of groundwater due to increased demand for irrigation (Remenda and Birks, 1999) as well as decreased replenification of aquifers, small dunes which are affected by groundwater sources may also potentially be reactivated (Lemmen et al., 1998).

Sand dune regions that are considered to be least sensitive to the effects of climate change are those where changes in climate result in moisture conditions and vegetation cover that are sufficient to suppress erosion (Wolfe and Nickling, 1997). Such areas may include the boreal and subarctic regions of Saskatchewan and Alberta where the presently active Athabasca Sand Dunes may potentially become stabilized by the effects of global warming. Increased temperatures as well as a longer growing season could result in the stabilization of the dunes and thus decreased eolian activity through greater vegetation growth (Wolfe and Nickling, 1997). If global warming were to continue for many decades after the projected 2xCO2 scenario, continued change would most likely also be seen in forested dune areas. If the region continues to warm and precipitation levels continue to drop, there could be an increased risk of forest fires in the areas. If these fires are followed by strong winds, stabilized dunes could potentially be reactivated (Smith, 1978).

Dune destabilization results in replacement of vegetation cover by bare sand, and so implies a loss of grassland or forest productivity. However, for certain organisms, it may be beneficial. Because of the extent of sand dune landscapes in the Great Plains, some plant species are adapted to the habitat of active or semi-active dunes. Wallis and Wershler (1988) listed eight rare plants in southern Alberta which appear to be dependent on active sand: smooth goosefoot (Chenopodium subglabrum), bur ragweed (Franseria acanthicarpa), sand nut-grass (Cyperus schweinitzii), sand verbena (Abronia micrantha), annual skeleton-weed (Lygodesmia rostrata), nodding umbrella plant (Eriogonum cernuum), western spiderwort (Tradescantia occidentalis), and annual lupine (Lupinus pusillus). A rare mammal, Ord’s kangaroo rat (Dipodomys ordii), may also require active dunes.

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The stabilization which has occurred in many prairie dune areas over the 20th century, with vegetation encroachment on previously active areas, is considered to be a threat to such species. Increased potential for dune activation with climatic warming would increase the likelihood of maintaining habitat for these species.

Climate change and vegetation zonation

The distribution of global ecosystems occurs as a result of the close relationship between climate, soils and biota. The natural boundaries of vegetation zones, soil zones and climatic regions roughly coincide (Trewartha, 1968). Although there is rarely a simple vegetation-climate relationship, it is generally recognized that climate is an essential determinant of ecosystem properties (Jenny, 1941).

A number of different modeling techniques have been used to predict the potential response of natural ecosystems to climate change (Emanuel et al., 1985; Zoltai, 1988; Rizzo and Wiken, 1992; Monserud et al., 1993). Some are more sophisticated than others, but essentially they all show a shift of terrestrial vegetation zones northward, and to a lesser extent eastward, under a 2xCO2 scenario. On a global scale, Monserud et al. (1993) found that all vegetation zones will be affected by global warming to some extent, although some areas such as the desert and ice/polar desert are quite stable. Their model shows that because of greater warming in the temperate and boreal zones, those areas will be most affected. Rizzo and Wiken (1992) performed an assessment of the sensitivity of Canada's ecosystems and found that nearly half of the boreal ecoclimatic province will be lost to the cool temperate and grassland ecoclimatic provinces, with an increase of 6.9% to 11.9% in land area covered by the grassland ecoclimatic province.

Herrington et al. (1997) have looked more closely at the specific effects of the shifting of climatic zones on the boreal forest as well as the adjoining aspen parkland and grassland ecosystems. The circumpolar boreal forest is likely to decrease in area, biomass and carbon stock with a move toward younger age-classes. It is predicted that the northern treeline will advance northward into regions that are currently tundra, but this would occur fairly slowly and its movement would be limited by factors such as space and soil type (IPCC WG II, 1996). The retreat of the boreal forest’s southern boundary giving way to grassland is projected to occur at an accelerated pace under a drier climate. Hogg (1994) showed that the southern border of the western boreal forest is closely correlated with the balance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-PE). Similarly, Hildebrand and Scott (1987) showed the negative relationship between moisture deficit and percentage of tree cover in the Canadian prairies. Hogg and Hurdle (1995) applied this relationship to a 2xCO2 scenario, and predicted the aspen parkland zone extending well north into the current range of the boreal forest. Hogg and Schwartz (1997) found that conifers are unable to regenerate naturally in the grassland zone and are only slightly more successful in the aspen parkland zone. Historical evidence has also shown that extreme periods of drought have led to increased frequency of fire and insect infestations, which have in turn led to increased aspen dieback at the southern limit of the boreal forest (Hogg, 1997). In other parts of the world, cold-climate conifers have shown die-back which has been related to historic warming (Hamburg and Cogbill, 1988). Therefore with the predicted increase of drought frequency, the rapid loss of boreal forest to grassland in the southern boundary accompanied by the slower northward spreading of forest could result in a decrease in total boreal forest cover. However, it is also important to consider the direct effects of increasing CO2 concentration. Increased carbon

1-6 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 dioxide can increase photosynthesis, growth and water use efficiency in a number of plant species, and so could slow the retreat of the southern boreal forest boundary (Herrington et al., 1997).

With the shifting of the boreal ecoclimate boundaries will come shifts in species composition. Species will be required to migrate northward (in the northern hemisphere) as climate changes, but the rate and success of migration will vary among species because of differences in tolerance, genetic variation and dispersal rates. The result could be new, very different ecosystems as present ecosystems are unable to migrate as units and as some species are left behind (Singh and Wheaton, 1991; Peters, 1992). McCarthy (2001) documented rapid northward range expansions of some animal species, and local extinctions at southern edges of ranges, that have occurred with recent warming. For plants, many wind-dispersed species can easily migrate fast enough to keep up with climatic warming, but there may be others for which slow dispersal or limitation to particular habitats will limit their rate of range expansion (Malcolm and Pitelka, 2000). Other factors such as soil type and speed of formation will also have a great effect on the structure of future ecosystems under new climatic regimes. For example, the predicted advance of grassland into the boreal forest zone may be limited by soil productivity, since much of the area available for this advance is Precambrian Shield. This land is dominated by shallow soils and bedrock, and any grasslands that develop there will be different from ecosystems found in today's climate.

Sand dunes found in the Prairie Provinces are not restricted to one vegetation zone. They are found in the Prairie, the Boreal Plain as well as in the Boreal Shield ecozones. As each zone is altered by climate change the dune areas within it will also affected.

Climate change and grassland productivity

The productivity of Great Plains grasslands varies with climate. Statistical relationships between productivity and climate of U.S. grassland sites have been developed by several researchers. Generally the strongest relationship is the increase in productivity with annual precipitation (Sims et al., 1978, Sala et al., 1988, Epstein et al., 1996, 1998). In the U.S., both precipitation and grassland productivity show a simple westward decline across the Great Plains (Schimel et al., 1990). Where the effect of temperature has been examined, either by including both temperature and precipitation as independent regression variables (Sims et al., 1978), or by analyzing variation in temperature at a constant level of precipitation (Epstein et al., 1996, 1997b), yield has decreased with increasing temperature. This is presumably because of the increase in evapotranspiration with temperature, which reduces moisture availability at a given level of precipitation.

Soil properties also influence productivity. For example, soils which are high in clay and low in sand have high water-holding capacity. Sala et al. (1988) found that productivity increases with water- holding capacity at high precipitation (>370 mm), but decreases with water-holding capacity at lower precipitation. Epstein et al. (1997b) found the same pattern, except that the crossover point was at a much higher level of precipitation (800 mm). The explanation given for this apparent paradox is that in dry climates, loss of water by direct evaporation from the soil surface is important, so sandy soils in which rainwater drains quickly to lower levels actually retain more water than fine-textured soils in which rainwater is held near the surface. This is referred to as the “inverse soil texture hypothesis”. It suggests that sand dunes in dry climates may actually be more productive than nearby fine-textured soils. Productivity also increases with availability of nutrients, especially nitrogen, as

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 1-7 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 shown by fertilization experiments (Parton et al., 1994). Burke et al. (1997) suggested that the increase in productivity with annual precipitation is partly related to the higher availability of nitrogen in areas with higher precipitation.

Besides the impact of changing climate, direct fertilization by rising CO2 concentrations will have an increasing effect on grassland productivity. Ecosystem-level grassland experiments have shown increases in production ranging from 0 to 30% with doubling of CO2 (Campbell and Stafford Smith, 2000). However, some research has shown a reduction in forage quality with CO2 fertilization (Campbell and Stafford Smith, 2000).

Trends in species composition in U.S. grasslands have also been examined in relation to climatic patterns. Great Plains grasslands are mixtures of “warm-season” (C4 photosynthetic pathway) and “cool-season” (C3 photosynthetic pathway) species. The proportion of C4 grasses increases with mean annual temperature (Epstein et al., 1997a). C3 grasses tend to be dominant in the northern Great Plains (roughly from South Dakota northward) and C4 grasses in the southern Great Plains (Epstein et al., 1997a). Sandy soils also increase the proportion of C4 species in a given climate (Epstein et al., 1997a). This can be seen in the Canadian prairies, where the C4 grasses sand reed grass (Calamovilfa longifolia) and sand dropseed (Sporobolus cryptandrus) are much more prevalent on sand dunes than on finer-textured soils. Long and Hutchin (1991) reviewed the physiological differences between C3 and C4 species. C4s are more active at warmer temperatures, so climatic warming would allow them to develop earlier in the spring, possibly resulting in a northward expansion of their distribution. Contrasting results were obtained in northeastern Colorado by Alward et al. (1999), who related a recent decline in the dominant C4 grass (Bouteloua gracilis) to rising temperatures, but this was over a short time span (<20 years). The direct fertilization effect of rising CO2 concentrations may complicate the effects of rising temperatures. Increasing CO2 theoretically provides a greater relative benefit for C3s than C4s (Long and Hutchin, 1991; Parton et al., 1994); however, ecosystem experiments have shown that, under the dry conditions typical of grasslands, this advantage tends to be eliminated (Nie et al., 1992; Campbell and Stafford Smith, 2000). Coffin and Lauenroth (1996) simulated grassland composition using STEPPE-GP, a gap model similar to FORET, and related models used for forest succession. Simulations at northern U.S. sites (i.e. close to the Canadian prairies) showed a shift from C3 dominance to C4 dominance with climatic warming. However this model did not incorporate direct CO2 effects.

For individual plant species, Epstein et al. (1998) presented regressions for the absolute and relative production in relation to climate and soil variables over the Great Plains. Several of the dominant C3 grasses in the Canadian prairies, including western wheat grass (Agropyron smithii), needle-and- thread (Stipa comata), green needle grass (Stipa viridula) and June grass (Koeleria cristata) show an inverse relationship of relative production with mean annual temperature, reflecting their northern distribution in the Great Plains as a whole. On the other hand, the C4 grasses blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis) and sand reed grass (Calamovilfa longifolia) increase in relative production with mean annual temperature. Soil texture also affects relative production of some species, with western wheat grass (Agropyron smithii), northern wheat grass (Agropyron dasystachyum) and green needle grass (Stipa viridula) associated with finer soils, and needle-and-thread (Stipa comata) and sand reed grass (Calamovilfa longifolia) associated with coarser soils. While Canadian grasslands are not included in these regression studies, they are close enough to similar grasslands in Montana and North Dakota that the same patterns probably apply.

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Changes in grassland productivity would result in different grazing capacities, which express the stocking of grazing animals which can be supported on a sustainable basis. Standard grazing capacities used in Alberta increase with annual precipitation (Wroe et al., 1988). On the “choppy sandhills” range site (i.e. sand dunes), grazing capacity varies from 0.30 AUM/ha (animal unit months per hectare) in the driest regions (precipitation less than 250 mm) to 1.98 AUM/ha at precipitation over 550 mm. In Saskatchewan, soil zones are used as climatic zones (Abouguendia, 1990). Grazing capacity on the “dunesand” range site varies from 0.37 AUM/ha in the Dry Brown Soil Zone to 0.74 AUM/ha in the Black Soil Zone (i.e the moistest part of the grassland region).

Grassland productivity is also affected by drought, which is an important feature of the climate of grassland. In the Canadian prairies, grassland productivity declined during the drought of the 1930s and recovered rapidly when annual precipitation returned to normal levels (Clarke et al., 1943, Coupland, 1958). Smoliak (1986) reported more than 50 years of yield records from Manyberries in southeastern Alberta. The lowest yield was 96 kg/ha in 1961, when annual precipitation was only 215 mm. The highest yield was 925 kg/ha in 1942, when precipitation was 416 mm. Smoliak et al. (1976) reported statistical relationships between yield and current precipitation. For the Stipa- Bouteloua grassland at Manyberries,

yield = -87 + 3 (April-to-July precipitation) R2 = 0.71

Similar regressions are given for Stipa-Bouteloua-Agropyron grassland at Swift Current, SK. It should be noted that these represent inter-annual variation in yield with precipitation at a given site, by contrast with the U.S. studies described above, which show variation among sites with differing mean precipitation.

According to Coupland (1958), the first effect of drought is reduction in plant height, but prolonged drought leads to reduction of plant cover (i.e. greater soil exposure). These impacts interact with grazing pressure. Albertson et al. (1957) found that over several areas in the central U.S., the loss of cover due to drought averaged 49% in ungrazed, 66% in moderately grazed, and 82% in heavily grazed grasslands. Fluctuations in weather also cause changes in the relative proportions of plant species. In the shortgrass prairie of the U.S., the drought of the 1930s caused increased dominance of blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), and a great increase of the cactus Opuntia (Coupland, 1958). In southeastern Alberta, needle-and-thread (Stipa comata), western wheat grass (Agropyron smithii), and blue grama decreased while Sandberg’s blue grass (Poa secunda), moss-phlox (Phlox hoodii), and club-moss (Selaginella densa) increased (Clarke et al., 1943). With increasing precipitation in the 1940s and 1950s, Coupland (1959) documented a shift in dominance at Canadian prairie sites from needle-and-thread and blue grama to the more moisture-demanding western porcupine grass (Stipa curtiseta) and wheat grasses. Tilman and El Haddi (1992) found that a single severe drought year eliminated some plant species from a prairie plot.

A number of studies have used ecosystem simulation models to examine the effects of climate change on grassland productivity. Schimel et al. (1990) applied the CENTURY model to a site in central U.S., using the GISS scenario for CO2 doubling. Both temperature and precipitation increased in this scenario. The model predicted an increase in net primary productivity, related to both the increase in precipitation and the increase in nitrogen availability with faster decomposition at warmer temperatures. Schimel et al. (1991) extended CENTURY simulations to the entire Great Plains using

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 1-9 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 spatial data for climate and soil texture. This again showed an increase in net primary productivity for the northern plains, attributed to the increase in precipitation in the GISS scenario. Parton et al. (1996) and Ojima et al. (1996) applied CENTURY to grassland sites around the world, using the GFDL and CCC climate change scenarios, and obtained similar results to the Schimel studies for sites in Montana and Colorado. Doubling the concentration of CO2 without climate change also gave an increase in productivity. Climate change resulted in faster decomposition, lower soil organic matter, and higher mineralization of nitrogen.

Similar results were obtained by Baker et al. (1993), who applied the SPUR model to U.S. rangelands, using the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO climate change scenarios, as well as doubling of atmospheric CO2 without climate change. All of the simulations resulted in an increase in grassland production (peak standing crop) in the northern part of the Great Plains, except that the GFDL scenario showed a decrease in the eastern part of the northern plains (North and South Dakota). The three climate change scenarios showed a decrease in soil organic matter in the northern plains, related to faster decomposition at higher temperatures, and a decrease in the carbon:nitrogen ratio in soil.

Climate change and forest productivity

The higher temperatures predicted with climate change will affect the growth and productivity of the boreal forest ecosystem. The effect of a 2°C increase in mean annual temperature will be revealed through reduced soil moisture, increased evaporative demand, and, therefore more severe and frequent drought. This will result in reduced stomatal conductance, reduced growth and productivity, and more severe dieback events, especially when combined with other stresses (Herrington et al., 1997).

Many have attempted to use models to predict the response of growth and productivity in the western boreal forest to climate change, but it has proved to be difficult due to a lack of information (Long and Hutchin, 1991) or due to conflicting climate change scenarios (Price and Apps, 1996). Price and Apps (1996) used the FORSKA2 patch model to simulate responses of forest biomass to four GCM projections of climate change at 11 locations along a transect oriented northeast-southwest across the boreal zone of central Canada. According to their model, the northern part of the forest, where ecosystem productivity is limited by low temperatures, showed minor changes in biomass accumulation. However, the southern portion, where productivity is more limited by summer water deficits, showed a large increase under two GCMs (GISS and OSU) and a generally smaller increase under another GCM (UKMO). Wheaton and Singh (1988) predicted an increase in potential biomass productivity in the Prairie Provinces and N.W.T. of up to 50%, based on the Turc/Lecerf model. Other studies show an increase in growth and productivity in central and northern parts, especially on favourable sites, and decrease in the south especially with increased drought (Wheaton, 1997). Halliwell et al. (1995) surveyed 97 sites along a transect from the aspen parkland to the sub-Arctic woodland to assess the sensitivity of the boreal forest to global change. They found that the southern sites were much more sensitive than the northern sites, and would therefore experience greatest decreases in growth and productivity.

Another way of predicting the effects of global warming on the productivity of the boreal forest is to examine the effects of increased CO2 levels on tree species. Carbon dioxide is a substrate for

1-10 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 photosynthesis and it may limit photosynthetic production if other necessary factors (e.g. water, nutrients, and light) are not limiting. Therefore if northern boreal forest experiences a chronically high increase in CO2 it can have a fertilizing effect. For a number of species, high CO2 levels tend to cause partial stomatal closure which reduces water loss and thus increases water use efficiency for increased production (Singh and Higginbotham, 1988). Although there are positive effects of increased CO2 levels and increased northern temperature on many boreal forest species, it is hard to attain long-term predictions due to the inability to correctly predict the acclimation potential of the physiological process of individual species (Singh and Higginbotham, 1988). For example many boreal species such as white spruce (Picea glauca), and black spruce (Picea mariana) exhibit maximum photosynthetic activity at 20°C (Black, 1977; Clark, 1961), which is a common reaction for most C3 species. Therefore increased growing season temperatures could perhaps cause this optimum to be exceeded, but it is possible that these species will acclimate to the higher temperatures, while genetic adaptation could also occur in the long run (Singh and Higginbotham, 1988).

Availability of moisture is the limiting factor which will determine the effects of climatic warming on the growth and productivity of the boreal forest in the end. If, as some GCMs predict, there is an increase in the balance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, productivity will probably increase in the boreal forest. But if the balance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration decreases, forest productivity will probably decrease.

Climate change and forest fires

Forest fire is the most important disturbance process that affects the boreal forest of the Prairie Provinces. It shapes the physical and biological attributes of the biome. It has been revealed through the study of the adaptations of boreal forest species that fire must have been an integral component of vegetation dynamics as long ago as the Miocene (30 million years ago) or early Pliocene (12 million years ago) during which time modern boreal forest species evolved (Hopkins, 1967).

Fire is important to individual species as well as to the whole ecosystem. Many species such as jack pine (Pinus banksiana), black spruce (Picea mariana), paper birch (Betula papyrifera), and trembling aspen (Popuus tremuloides) all regenerate most easily after fire. Post-fire soil conditions of a mineral seedbed is necessary for successful germination of jack pine and spruce seedlings. All species need post-fire conditions of temporary absence of overstory shade in order for their recolonization (Weber and Stocks, 1998), but it is jack pine that is especially dependent on fire . Without fire the resins that bond the scales of its serotinous cones cannot be melted and the seed crop is unable to be released. If jack pine were not exposed to fire they could potentially disappear from the boreal forest and thus the landscape would appear much different than it is today (Weber and Stocks, 1998).

Fire is also necessary to the ecosystem as a whole as it provides a mosaic in the landscape which can sustain a great number of plant and animal species. Fire frequency (including fire return intervals) and fire intensity as well as phenological state of the vegetation (time of year of fire) and post-fire local conditions are all factors that in different combinations can create an infinite number of landscape diversity scenarios (Weber and Stocks, 1998)

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Climate and fire regime in the boreal forest are directly related, therefore it is safe to assume that with climate change comes a change in the current fire regimes. Before we can predict the effects of climate change on the fire regime of the boreal forest including the frequency, size, intensity, seasonality, type and severity of wild fires (Weber and Flannigan, 1997), it is helpful that we examine the history of wildfire and its associated climate.

Records of forest area burned in Canada only date back inconsistently to 1918 (and not even in all provinces). The average annual area burned since that time has been estimated at 1.3 million ha/year with annual variation from 14% to 412% of this mean (Van Wagner, 1988). The greatest annual area burned since records have been kept was during the 1980s and 1990s (Weber and Stocks, 1998). Fire frequency records also show that there has been an increase from 6,000 fires annually during the 1930-1960 period to just under 10,000 fires annually during the 1980s and half way into the 1990s (Van Wagner, 1991). The greatest proportion of wildfires in Canada as well as the majority of the area burned especially during the 1980s and 1990s has been related to periods of short-term extreme weather west of the Ontario-Manitoba border (Weber and Stocks, 1998). It is necessary to keep in mind that prior to 1970, before the use of satellite technology, many large fires may have gone undetected, so the reliability of the data decreases with increasing distance into the past. It is also necessary to consider the growing population, increased forest use and more sophisticated fire detection methods when referring to the forest fire frequency statistics (Weber and Stocks, 1998).

It is generally agreed that the effects of a predicted climate change toward a hotter and drier climate will affect the Canadian boreal forest (Wheaton and Singh, 1988; Flannigan and Van Wagner, 1991; Stocks, 1993; Bergeron and Flannigan, 1995; Weber and Flannigan, 1997; Weber and Stocks, 1998) but exactly what will occur and to what extent is not easy to predict due to the great number of factors that surround fire ignition and behaviour. Fire regimes may be more sensitive to climate change than any other ecosystem process because fire behaviour responds immediately to fuel moisture, which is affected by precipitation and relative humidity (Weber and Flannigan, 1997). Due to the impact that fire plays in the boreal forest ecosystem it is reasonable to suspect that the change in the fire regime due to climate change may have a greater impact on forest dynamics than the direct impact of climatic warming itself (Payette, 1992).

Many authors have attempted to predict the effects that a warmer and drier climate will have on the boreal forest through the study of outputs from GCMs as well as other modeling systems. In a recent study conducted by Stocks et al.(1998), four current GCMs were used to project forest fire danger levels in Canada and Russia under a warmer climate. Both countries were projected to have large increases in areal extent of extreme fire danger, especially in June and July, due to increased severe fire weather as well as an earlier start to the fire season. Flannigan and Van Wagner (1991) investigated the potential effects of a 2x CO2 warming on the severity of the forest fire season in Canada. They found that there may be up to a 46% increase in fire severity rating (a measure of the work needed to suppress a fire), with a similar increase in area burned. Another study used the Canadian Climate Centre’s (CCC) GCM to show a potential average increase in fire season length of 22% or 30 days in a 2x CO2 scenario (Wotton and Flannigan, 1993).

The natural ignition of fires by lightning accounts for most of the forest burned, with 35% of all fires being caused by lightning yet contributing to 85% of total area burned (Weber and Stocks, 1998). Therefore the proposed increase of lightning frequency by 30-40% due to the predicted changes in

1-12 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001 climate will have a significant effect on the frequency of fire as well as the amount of area burned (Fosberg et al., 1996; Price and Rind, 1994).

Increased incidence of fire in the boreal forest would accelerate the shift in vegetation zonation (Stocks, 1993) from boreal forest to grassland (Rizzo and Wiken, 1992). This shift will begin at the edge of the forest (Stocks, 1993) and will occur in a number of ways. Seedlings will be most heavily affected by climate change as they are most sensitive to hotter and drier conditions. The loss of reproductive potential of boreal species will thus allow species from the aspen parkland to move north into the boreal forest region. The resultant vegetation may include fuel types that would burn at higher intensities than those experienced today (Weber and Stocks, 1998). With the resultant increased fire activity there may be a continued change in species composition as fire-adapted species begin to dominate and smother out other species that are not able to compete in fire disturbed areas. With predicted shorter intervals between fires the rate of forest response will be cut significantly shorter which will also contribute to altered species composition and result in younger- aged stands (Stocks, 1993).

With the change in vegetation composition will come associated changes in other processes including decomposition and nutrient cycling, which affect organic matter depth and accumulation (Weber and Flannigan, 1997). The whole ecosystem will be altered as current wildlife habitat is loss and new habitat is formed.

The boreal forest is an important global carbon sink and any change to the carbon budget can have extreme results on Canada as well as the rest of the world. With the increase of younger age classes the boreal forest’s role as a carbon sink would be substantially reduced (Kurz and Apps, 1993). A model developed by Kasischke et al. (1995) showed that if the annual area of global boreal forest burned increased by 50%, as predicted by some studies, the amount of carbon stored in the ground layer would decrease between 3.5 and 5.6 kg/m2, and the amount of carbon stored in the living biomass would increase by 1.2 kg/m2. There would therefore be a net loss of carbon in boreal forests between 2.3 and 4.4 kg/m2. The role of the boreal forest as a carbon sink helps to balance anthropogenic emissions, and if it were to be removed then further increases in CO2 into the atmosphere would contribute to further global warming (Weber and Stocks, 1998).

LITERATURE CITED - see Literature Cited following main body of report.

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APPENDIX 2

Ecozones, Ecoregions and Ecodistricts of Sand Dune Areas

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Appendix 2 Ecozones, Ecoregions and Ecodistricts of Sand Dune Areas

The following table lists the 124 dune areas found in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba along with the ecozone(s), ecoregion(s), and ecodistrict(s) in which they are located. Most dune areas are located in the Prairies and Boreal Plains ecozones, totalling 54 and 65 respectively. The Boreal Shield ecozone also contains 9 dune areas, and the Taiga Plains 1 dune area. Sometimes a dune area intersects with multiple ecodistricts. In these cases, ecodistricts are only recorded if they extend significantly beyond the ecodistrict boundary.

This classification is useful for determining which climate normal data apply to a certain dune area. If, for instance, one was interested in determining the mean annual temperature over the 1961-1990 normal period for the Dominion Sand Hills (AB-01), one would simply have to retrieve the data for ecodistrict 833 and apply it to this dune area. In cases where there are multiple ecodistricts for one dune area, climate data would have to be obtained for all those ecodistricts first. The user would then have to determine the best way to integrate those data, either by taking a mean value, an area- weighted average, or an interpolated value.

Dune Area Dune Area Name Ecozone Ecoregion Ecodistrict ALBERTA AB-01 Dominion Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 833 AB-02 Pakowki Lake Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 828 AB-03 Milk River Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 797 AB-04 Grassy Lake Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 829 AB-05 Middle Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 815 AB-06 Hilda Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 815, 821 AB-07 Empress Meander Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 815 AB-08 Bowmanton Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 815, 821, 828 AB-09 Rolling Hills Lake Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 812 AB-10 Clear Lake Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 793 AB-11 Gleichen Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 790 AB-12 Duchess Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 812 AB-13 Rosebud River Sand Hills Prairies Fescue Grassland 798 AB-14 Sounding Creek Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland/Mixed 777/ 804 Grassland AB-15 Sounding Lake Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 739 AB-16 Buffalo Park Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 739 AB-17 Edgerton Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 729, 739 AB-18 Battle River Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 727, 737 AB-19 Blackfald Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 737 AB-20 Markerville Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 737

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Dune Area Dune Area Name Ecozone Ecoregion Ecodistrict AB-21 Chedderville Sand Hills Boreal Plains Western Alberta Upland 629 AB-22 Bowden Sand Hills Boreal Plains/ Boreal Transition/ Aspen Parkland 708/ 737 Prairies AB-23 Rocky Mountain House Sand Boreal Plains Western Alberta Upland 623, 629 Hills AB-24 Brazeau Sand Hills Boreal Plains Western Alberta Upland 623, 629 AB-25 Lodgepole Sand Hills Boreal Plains Western Alberta Upland 623, 626 AB-26 Stony Plain Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 727 AB-27 East Gate Sand Hills Boreal Plains/ Boreal Transition/ Aspen Parkland 683/ 727 Prairies AB-28 Beaverhill Creek Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 727 AB-29 Ukalta Sand Hills Boreal Plains/ Boreal Transition/ Aspen Parkland 683/ 728 Prairies AB-30 Redwater River Sand Hills Boreal Plains Boreal Transition 683 AB-31 Westlock Sand Hills Boreal Plains Boreal Transition 683 AB-32 Brule Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Western Alberta Upland 625 AB-33 Edson Sand Hills Boreal Plains Western Alberta Upland 623, 625 AB-34 Hattonford Sand Hills Boreal Plains Western Alberta Upland 623 AB-35 Windfall Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands/ Western 617/ 618 Alberta Upland AB-36 Whitecourt Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands/ Western 617/ 622 Alberta Upland AB-37 Fish Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 617 AB-38 Holmes Crossing Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 616 AB-39 Fort Assiniboine Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 616 AB-40 Nelson Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands/ Boreal 616/ 681 Transition AB-41 Kilsyth Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 615, 616 AB-42 Chilsholm Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 615, 616 AB-43 Bruce lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 616 AB-44 Decrene Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 616 AB-45 Hondo Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 615, 616 AB-46 Lesser Slave Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 616 AB-47 North Buck Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Boreal Transition 679 AB-48 Lac la Biche Sand Hills Boreal Plains Wabasca Lowland/ Mid-Boreal 609/ 644/ 678 Uplands/ Boreal Transition AB-49 Erie Creek Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 638 AB-50 Bohn Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 637 AB-51 Gordon Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 637 AB-52 Iosegun Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Western Boreal 610

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Dune Area Dune Area Name Ecozone Ecoregion Ecodistrict AB-53 Ellenwood Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland/ Western Boreal 600/ 610 AB-54 Smoky River Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 600 AB-55 Grovedale Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 600 AB-56 Pinto Creek Sand Hills Boreal Plains Western Boreal 610 AB-57 Wapiti Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland/ Western Boreal 600/ 610 AB-58 Pipestone Creek Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 598, 600 AB-59 Bear River Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 600 AB-60 Economy Creek Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 600 AB-61 Watino Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 596 AB-62 Hines Creek Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 591, 594 AB-63 High Prairie Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 592 AB-64 Algar River Sand Hills Boreal Plains Wabasca Lowland 609 AB-65 Wood Buffalo River Sand Hills Boreal Plains Wabasca Lowland 608, 609 AB-66 Fort McMurray Sand Hills Boreal Plains Wabasca Lowland 608, 609 AB-67 Firebag Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 632, 634 AB-68 Fort Mckay Sand Hills Boreal Plains Slave River Lowlands/ Wabasca 579/ 608 Lowland AB-69 Richardson, Ronald Lake, Old Boreal Shield/ Athabasca Plain/ Slave River 331, 338/ 577, Fort Bay Sand Hills Boreal Plains Lowlands 579, 580, 632 AB-70 Lake Claire Sand Hills Boreal Plains Slave River Lowlands 580 AB-71 Wood Buffalo Sand Hills Taiga Plains/ Hay River Lowland/ Slave River 243/ 574, 576, Boreal Plains Lowlands 578 AB-72 Fort Vermilion & La Crete Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 586, 587 Sand Hill AB-73 Wolverine Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 586 AB-74 Cache Creek Sand Hills Boreal Plains Peace Lowland 589 AB-75 Buffalo Head Sand Hills Boreal Plains Wabasca Lowland 607 AB-76 Leige River Sand Hills Boreal Plains Wabasca Lowland 608 SASKATCHEWAN SK-01 Tunstall Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 827 SK-02 Piapot Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 824, 827 SK-03 Carmichael Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 824 SK-04 Seward Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 824 SK-05 Antelope Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 824 SK-06 Big Stick - Crane Lake Prairies Mixed Grassland 827 SK-07 Great Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 808, 817, 819, 820 SK-08 Burstall Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 815 SK-09 Westerham Prairies Mixed Grassland 815

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Dune Area Dune Area Name Ecozone Ecoregion Ecodistrict SK-10 Cramersburg Sand Hills Prairies Mixed Grassland 808 SK-11 Pelican Lake Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 792 SK-12 Airfield Dunes Prairies Mixed Grassland 822 SK-13 Elbow Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 789 SK-14 Birsay Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 770 SK-15 Dundurn Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 776 SK-16 Pike Lake Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 770, 776 SK-17 Harris Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 770 SK-18 Richmond Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 778 SK-19 Kinley Sand Hills Prairies Moist Mixed Grassland 770 SK-20 Borden Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 742 SK-21 Duck Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Boreal Transition 701 SK-22 North Battleford Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 734 SK-23 Manito Lake Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 739 SK-24 Fielding Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 742 SK-25 Holbein Sand Hills Boreal Plains Boreal Transition 696, 701 SK-26 Canwood Sand Hills Boreal Plains Boreal Transition 696 SK-27 Nisbet Forest Sand Hills Boreal Plains Boreal Transition 696, 701 SK-28 Fort a la Corne Boreal Plains Boreal Transition 694, 696, 698, 702 SK-29 Fallilng Horse Creek Sand Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 659, 662 Hills SK-30 Chitek Sand Hills Boreal Plains Boreal Transition/ Mid-Boreal 690/ 711 Uplands SK-31 Meadow Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Boreal Transition 682 SK-32 Waterhen Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands/ Boreal 647/ 682, 685 Transition SK-33 Montreal Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 656 SK-34 Emmeline Lake Sand Hills Boreal Plains Mid-Boreal Uplands 643, 646, 649 SK-35 Fortin River Sand Hills Boreal Shield Athabasca Plain/ Churchill River 341/ 348, 351 Upland SK-36 Agar Lake Sand Hills Boreal Shield Athabasca Plain/ Churchill River 340, 342/ 348, Upland/ Mid-Boreal Uplands 351/ 633 SK-37 Kearns Lake Sand Hills Boreal Shield Athabasca Plain 336, 341 SK-38 Pasfield Lake Sand Hills Boreal Shield Athabasca Plain 335 SK-39 Black Lake Sand Hills Boreal Shield Athabasca Plain 334 SK-40 Achibald Lake Sand Hills Boreal Shield Athabasca Plain 331, 333 SK-41 Archibald Lake Sand Hills - Boreal Shield Athabasca Plain 331, 333, 337, Western 338, 340

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Dune Area Dune Area Name Ecozone Ecoregion Ecodistrict SK-42 Archibald Lake Sand Hills - Boreal Shield Athabasca Plain 333, 334, 335, Eastern 336 SK-43 Fontain Lake Sand Hills Boreal Shield Tazin Lake Upland 263 MANITOBA MB-01 Brandon Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 757, 758, 759 MB-02 Souris Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 763 MB-03 Oak Lake Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 763 MB-04 Lauder Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 763 MB-05 Routledge Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 763 MB-06 St. Lazare Sand Hills Prairies Aspen Parkland 751

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APPENDIX 3

Prairie Province Ecodistricts, Classified by Model Grid Cell

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Appendix 3 Prairie Province Ecodistricts, Classified by Model Grid Cell

The following table lists all ecodistricts found in the prairie provinces by model grid cell. In order to determine the simulated future climate change for a given dune area, one would simply need to determine the ecodistrict(s) in which the dune area is found (using Appendix 2) and the relevant grid cell(s) for a particular model (Figure 10). Climate change values for the grid cell can then be applied to the 1961-1990 climate normals for the ecodistrict to give an approximate future climate for the dune area of interest.

For instance, say we want to know the future annual temperature in the 2050s as simulated by the CGCM1 greenhouse gas only model for Manito Lake Sand Hills, SK-23. Using Appendix 2, we see that SK-23 is found in the Prairies Ecozone, Aspen Parkland ecoregion, and ecodistrict #739. Given the approximate location in west-central Saskatchewan, one can then look at Figure 10a to determine the grid cells in which ecodistrict 739 may fall. From Figure 10a we see that Manito Lake Sand Hills are in grid cell 5,3 and possibly grid cells 4,3 or 4,4 or 5,4. Using the table in Appendix 3 (below), we can look at the actual CGCM1 ecodistricts found within each of these grid cells. Note that ecodistrict 739 is actually found in grid cells 4,3 and 5,3. One would then have to collect data for the temperature normals of ecodistrict 739 and CGCM1-GG1 2050s annual temperature for grid cells 4,3 and 5,3 (see Appendix 6). Given that the annual 1961-1990 temperature normal for ecodistrict 739 is 1.9°C, and the CGCM1-GG1 simulated 2050s annual temperature change for grid cell 4,3 is +4.7°C and for grid cell 5,3 is +4.8°C, these values can be summed to give the 2050s annual temperature for this dune area. When summed, the future annual temperature in the 2050s as simulated by the CGCM-GG1 model for Manito Lake Sand Hills would be between 6.6 (sum of 1.9 and 4.7) and 6.7 (sum of 1.9 and 4.8).

Grid Cell CGCM1 Ecodistricts ECHAM4 Ecodistricts HadCM3 Ecodistricts 11 NA NA NA 1,2 NA NA NA 1,3 NA NA NA 1,4 NA NA NA 1,5 NA NA NA 16 NA NA NA 1,7 NA NA NA 2,1 244, 249, 250, 251 NA NA 2,2 244, 245, 250, 251, 581-584, 590, 244, 249-251 244, 249, 250, 251 591, 593, 594, 596, 618 2,3 593, 596-600, 610, 618, 621, 996, 244, 245, 581-583, 591, 244, 245, 581-584, 590, 591, 997, 1000 594, 618 594 24 NA 591, 594, 598, 610, 618, 590, 591, 593, 594, 596-600, 621, 996, 997 610, 618, 621, 996, 997 2,5 NA NA 621, 996, 997, 1000 2,6 NA NA NA 2,7 NA NA NA

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Grid Cell CGCM1 Ecodistricts ECHAM4 Ecodistricts HadCM3 Ecodistricts 3,1 242-244, 250, 251, 253, 254 NA NA 3,2 244, 245, 253, 254, 576-578, 580, 242, 244, 245, 250, 251, 242-244, 250, 251, 253, 254, 583, 584, 586-590, 592, 593, 595, 586 586 596, 601-609, 612-614 3,3 592, 593, 595-597, 600, 610-612, 244, 245, 581-584, 586- 244, 245, 253, 254, 576-578, 614-630, 681, 684, 692, 703, 708, 596, 601, 612 580, 583, 584, 586-590, 592, 737, 996-1000 593, 601-605, 607-609, 612 3,4 628, 629, 631, 708, 746, 750, 999, 592-600, 610, 611, 618, 588, 590, 592, 593, 595-597, 1000, 1016-1019 619, 621, 623-625, 627, 600, 607, 609-625, 681, 684, 628, 996-999 692, 996 3,5 NA 628, 997-1000 621-630, 684, 692, 703, 708, 737, 746, 750, 996-1000, 1016 3,6 NA NA 631, 750, 999, 1016-1019 3,7 NA NA NA 4,1 243, 244, 253, 254, 263, 574, 576, NA NA 577 4,2 243, 244, 253 ,254 ,263, 331, 338, 242-244, 253, 254, 576- 243, 244, 253, 254, 263, 574, 574, 576-580, 586, 604-609, 613- 578, 586 576-578, 586 615, 632, 634, 635, 637-639, 641, 644 4,3 609, 614-616, 619, 630, 638, 641, 576-578, 580, 586-589, 263, 331, 338, 576-580, 586, 644, 650, 678-681, 683, 684, 686- 592, 601-605, 607-609, 604-609, 632, 634, 634, 635, 688, 692, 703, 708, 727-732, 737- 612, 613 637-639 740, 744, 746, 769, 771, 777, 779, 781 4,4 631, 708, 740, 744, 746, 750, 769, 592, 609, 610, 612-620, 609, 613-616, 619, 637-639, 771, 777, 779, 781, 786-788, 790, 622-630, 678, 681, 684, 641, 644, 650, 678-681, 683, 791, 793, 797-802, 804, 806, 809, 692, 703, 727 684, 686-688, 727-732 812, 814, 815, 818, 821, 823, 828, 829, 833, 836-838, 1017-1019 4,5 NA 623, 626-631, 692, 703, 630, 684, 687, 688, 692, 703, 708, 737, 746, 750, 798, 708, 727-732, 737-740, 744, 799, 998-1000, 1016- 746, 750, 769, 771, 777, 779, 1018 781, 786, 787, 798, 804, 806, 809 4,6 NA 750, 799-801, 1017-1019 631, 750, 781, 786-788, 790, 791, 793, 797-802, 806, 809, 812, 814, 815, 818, 821, 823, 828, 829, 833, 836-838, 1017- 1019 4,7 NA NA NA 5,1 262, 263, 277, 278, 331 NA NA 5,2 263, 331-333, 336-338, 340-342, 243, 244, 253, 254, 263, 262, 263, 277, 278, 331-333, 348, 351, 354, 579, 632-637, 640- 574, 576-578, 586 336-338 645 5,3 640-645, 647-653, 657, 660, 661, 338, 577-580, 604-609, 331, 333, 336-338, 340-342, 680, 682, 685-687, 689, 690, 695, 632, 634, 635, 637-639, 348, 351, 354, 579, 632-637, 696, 699, 710, 711, 729, 730, 733- 641 640

3-4 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Grid Cell CGCM1 Ecodistricts ECHAM4 Ecodistricts HadCM3 Ecodistricts 736, 739, 742, 743, 767, 768, 770- 772, 775, 776, 778, 780, 803 54 770, 771, 773, 775-777, 780, 782, 609, 614-616, 638, 641, 351, 354, 636, 637, 640-645, 789, 803-805, 807-811, 813-817, 644, 650, 678-681, 683, 647-653, 657, 660, 661, 680, 819-821, 824-827, 832-835, 837, 684, 687, 688, 692, 703, 682, 685-687, 689, 690, 710, 838 727, 728, 730-732, 737 711, 729 5,5 NA 692, 703, 727, 730, 731, 660, 682, 686, 687, 689, 690, 737-740, 744, 746, 750, 695, 696, 699, 710, 711, 729, 769, 771, 777, 779, 781, 730, 733-736, 739, 742, 743, 786-788, 790, 791, 793, 767, 768, 770-773, 775-778, 798, 799, 804, 806, 809, 780, 782, 803-805, 807-811 812, 814, 818, 823, 828 5,6 NA 750, 787, 791, 793, 797- 770, 780, 789, 807-811, 813- 802, 806, 812, 823, 828, 817, 819-821, 824-827, 832- 829, 833, 836, 1018, 835, 837, 838 1019 5,7 NA NA NA 6,1 263, 273, 274, 276-278 NA NA 6,2 263, 276, 278, 332-337, 339, 341, 262, 263, 331, 333, 338, 263, 273, 274, 276-278, 332- 343-345, 347, 348, 352, 354, 643 577, 579 336 6,3 347, 353, 354, 358, 643, 646, 649, 331, 337, 338, 340, 342, 276, 333-337, 339, 341, 343- 653-659, 661, 662, 664, 669, 689, 348, 351, 577, 579, 609, 345, 347, 348, 352-354 691, 693, 694, 696-698, 700-702, 632-642 704-707, 712-714, 733, 736, 741, 745, 772-774, 776, 782 6,4 745, 747, 748, 752, 754-756, 762, 640-642, 644, 645, 647, 344, 347, 352, 353, 354, 358, 770, 773, 776, 782-785, 789, 792, 648, 650, 652, 680, 682, 643, 646, 649, 653-659, 661, 794-796, 810, 813, 816, 822, 826, 685-688, 695, 710, 711, 662, 664, 689, 691, 693 830-832 729, 730, 733-735 6,5 NA 695, 729, 730, 734, 735, 655, 656, 658, 659, 661, 662, 739, 743, 767-769, 771, 669, 689, 691, 693, 694, 696- 775, 777, 778, 780, 803- 698, 700-702, 704-707, 712- 809, 811, 814, 815, 817, 714, 733, 736, 741, 745, 747, 819-821, 824, 827, 828 748, 770, 772-774, 776, 782- 785 6,6 NA 815, 820, 821, 824, 825, 748, 752, 754-756, 762, 770, 827, 828, 832-838 782-784, 789, 792, 794-796, 810, 813, 816, 822, 826, 830- 832 6,7 NA NA NA 7,1 271, 276, 279 NA NA 7,2 276, 279, 280, 282, 283, 343, 344, 262, 263, 273, 277, 278, 271, 276, 279 346, 347, 349, 352, 353, 356 331-338 7,3 353, 356-359, 662-669, 672, 674, 334-342, 345, 347, 348, 276, 279, 280, 282, 283, 343, 675, 691, 697, 700, 704, 707, 709, 351, 354, 636, 640, 643 344, 346, 347, 349, 352, 353 712-715, 717, 718, 745 7,4 707, 709, 715-718, 745, 747-749, 347, 353, 354, 640, 643, 344, 353, 356-359, 662-669, 751-766, 794-796, 839-841, 843, 645-647, 649, 651, 653, 691

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 3-5 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Grid Cell CGCM1 Ecodistricts ECHAM4 Ecodistricts HadCM3 Ecodistricts 844, 854, 855 655-658, 660, 661, 682, 685, 687, 689, 690, 693, 696, 698, 699, 701, 702, 711, 733, 735, 736 7,5 NA 690, 696, 701, 702, 706, 666-669, 672, 674, 675, 691, 729, 733-736, 741, 742, 697, 700, 704, 707, 709, 712- 767, 770, 772-776, 778, 715, 717, 718, 745, 747-749, 780, 782, 784, 785, 789, 751, 839-841, 843 792, 807, 808, 810, 813, 816, 820, 822, 824-826 76 NA 816, 822, 824-826, 830, 709, 716, 748, 749, 751-766, 832, 834 794-796, 839-841, 843, 844, 854, 855 7,7 NA NA NA 8,1 270-272, 276, 279 NA NA 8,2 270, 272, 276, 279-283, 349, 350, 263, 273, 274, 276, 278, 270-272, 276, 279 353, 355, 356, 360-363, 1020 332, 334, 335, 339 8,3 356, 357, 361-368, 370, 371, 373, 276, 335, 336, 339, 341, 270, 272, 279-283, 349, 350, 663, 666, 668, 670, 671, 675, 676, 343-345, 347, 352, 353 353, 355, 356, 360, 361, 1020 718, 720 8,4 370, 371, 373, 375-377, 379, 380, 347, 353, 358, 646, 654, 350, 353, 355-357, 360-367, 671, 676, 677, 718, 720, 723, 724, 656, 658, 659, 661, 662, 663, 666, 670, 671 726, 757-759, 764-766, 841, 843, 664, 669, 691, 693, 694, 844, 846, 847-854 696-698, 700, 702, 705, 712, 713 8,5 NA 697, 700, 702, 704-707, 364, 366-368, 370, 371, 373, 709, 712-714, 741, 745, 663, 666, 668, 670, 671, 675- 747-749, 752, 754-756, 677, 718, 720, 723, 724, 841 773, 782-784, 792, 822 8,6 NA 755, 756, 760-762, 792, 371, 373, 375-377, 379, 380, 794-796, 822, 826, 830- 671, 677, 723, 724, 726, 757- 832 759, 764-766, 841, 843, 844, 846-854 8,7 NA NA NA 9,1 183, 270 NA NA 9,2 183, 270, 281, 350, 360, 362, 364, 276, 279, 280 183, 270, 1020, 1021 1020-1022, 1024, 1025 9,3 360, 362, 364, 365, 368, 371, 373, 276, 279, 280, 282, 343, 183, 270, 281, 350, 360, 1020- 1024 344, 346, 347, 349, 352, 1022, 1024, 1025 353 9,4 371, 373, 376, 377, 379, 380 344, 353, 356-359, 664- 360, 362, 364, 365, 368, 1024, 669, 672, 674, 697, 700, 1025 704, 712, 713, 717 9,5 NA 668, 672, 674, 704, 709, 364, 368, 371, 373 712, 714-718, 745, 747, 749, 751-753, 756, 758, 839-841, 844 9,6 NA 751-753, 755-758, 760- 371, 373, 376, 377, 379, 380

3-6 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Grid Cell CGCM1 Ecodistricts ECHAM4 Ecodistricts HadCM3 Ecodistricts 766, 794, 796, 855 9,7 NA NA NA 101 NA NA NA 10,2 1021, 1022, 1024-1026 271, 272, 276, 279, 280 NA 10,3 1024 272, 279, 280, 282, 283, 1021, 1022, 1024-1026 346, 349, 350, 353, 355, 356, 361, 363 10,4 NA 350, 353, 356, 357, 361- 1024-1026 367, 370, 371, 663, 665, 666, 668, 670, 671 10,5 NA 370, 371, 666, 668, 671, NA 674-677, 709, 716, 718, 720, 723, 724, 753, 757, 841, 843, 844, 846-851, 10,6 NA 724, 753, 757-759, 764- NA 766, 841, 844, 846-855 10,7 NA NA NA 11,1 NA NA NA 11,2 NA 183, 270, 272, 280, 281, NA 1020, 1021 11,3 NA 272, 280, 281, 283, 350, NA 355, 360-362, 1020, 1024 11,4 NA 360-368, 370, 371 NA 11,5 NA 370, 371, 373, 375-377, NA 671, 677, 723, 724 11,6 NA 375-377, 379, 380, 724, NA 726, 849, 853 11,7 NA NA NA 12,1 NA NA NA 12,2 NA 1020, 1021 NA 12,3 NA 281, 360, 364, 1020- NA 1022, 1024-1026 12,4 NA 360, 364, 365, 368, 1024 NA 12,5 NA NA NA 12,6 NA NA NA 12,7 NA NA NA 13,1 NA NA NA 13,2 NA NA NA 13,3 NA 1021, 1022, 1024, 1026 NA 13,4 NA 1024, 1026 NA 13,5 NA NA NA

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 3-7 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Grid Cell CGCM1 Ecodistricts ECHAM4 Ecodistricts HadCM3 Ecodistricts 13,6 NA NA NA 13,7 NA NA NA 14,1 NA NA NA 14,2 NA NA NA 14,3 NA NA NA 14,4 NA NA NA 145 NA NA NA 14,6 NA NA NA 14,7 NA NA NA

3-8 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

APPENDIX 4

Land Use Activities in Dune Areas

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 4-1 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

4-2 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Appendix 4 Land Use Activities in Dune Areas by Sector

Community: Residential Areas, Indian Reservations Recreation and Cultivation: Grain and Cash Crops Conservation: National Parks, Provincial Parks, Energy & Provincial Natural Areas, Recreation Mines: Oil & Gas Exploration and Drilling, Areas, Campgrounds, Picnic Sites, Mineral Exploration National Wildlife Areas, Game Preserves, Forestry: Forest Reserves, Forestry Heritage Rivers, Regional Parks Grazing: PFRA Pastures, SPP Pastures, Transportation: Roads, Trails, Railways, Pipelines, Ranching, Grazing Powerlines Military: Military Reserves and Target Areas Unknown: Land Use Activity not Assessed Other: Abandoned Sand Pit, Aqueduct, Cut Lines, Watering Holes/Windmills

Agriculture Dune Community Energy Recreation & Eco-region Forestry Military Transportation Unknown Other Total Area & Mines Conservation Cultivation Grazing

APa MB-1 * 6

APa MB-2 2

APa MB-3 2

APa MB-4 2

APa MB-5 1

APa MB-6 * 2

MG SK-1 * 2

MG SK-2 2

MG SK-3 na

MG SK-4 * 3

MG SK-5 1

MG SK-6 * * 3

MG SK-7 * * * *4

MG SK-8 3

MG SK-9 2

MG SK-10 2

MG/MMG SK-11 3

MG SK-12 2

MMG SK-13 * * 3

MMG SK-14 * 3

MMG SK-15 * 5

MMG SK-16 4

MMG SK-17 3

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 4-3 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Agriculture Dune Community Energy Recreation & Eco-region Forestry Military Transportation Unknown Other Total Area & Mines Conservation Cultivation Grazing

MMG SK-18 2

MMG SK-19 1

APa/ MMG SK-20 2

BT SK-21 3

APa SK-22 * 4

APa/ MMG SK-23 * * * *4

APa SK-24 2

BT SK-25 2

BT SK-26 2

BT SK-27 *1

BT SK-28 *3

MBU/ MBL SK-29 1

BT/ MBU SK-30 1

BT SK-31 2

BT/ MBU SK-32 2

MBU SK-33 na

MBU SK-34 na

APl/ CRU SK-35 1

APl/ CRU/ SK-36 1 MBU

APl SK-37 na

APl SK-38 na

APl SK-39 na

APl SK-40 *1

APl SK-41 nr

APl SK-42 nr

MG AB-1 1

MG AB-2 2

MMG / MG AB-3 2

MG AB-4 2

MG AB-5 4

MG AB-6 2

MG AB-7 1

MG AB-8 * 2

4-4 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Agriculture Dune Community Energy Recreation & Eco-region Forestry Military Transportation Unknown Other Total Area & Mines Conservation Cultivation Grazing

MG AB-9 3

MMG AB-10 1

MMG AB-11 2

MG AB-12 1

APa/ MMG/ AB-13 na FG

MG/ MMG AB-14 2

APa AB-15 3

APa AB-16 4

APa AB-17 3

APa AB-18 4

APa AB-19 4

APa AB-20 1

WAU/ BT AB-21 2

BT/ APa AB-22 1

WAU/ BT AB-23 4

WAU AB-24 3

WAU AB-25 1

APa AB-26 4

BT/ APa AB-27 4

APa AB-28 4

BT/ APa AB-29 4

BT/ APa AB-30 4

BT AB-31 1

WAU/ECR AB-32 2

WAU AB-33 2

WAU AB-34 2

MBU/ WAU AB-35 1

MBU/ WAU AB-36 2

MBU AB-37 1

MBU/ BT AB-38 2

MBU AB-39 4

MBU/BT AB-40 3

MBU/BT AB-41 1

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 4-5 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Agriculture Dune Community Energy Recreation & Eco-region Forestry Military Transportation Unknown Other Total Area & Mines Conservation Cultivation Grazing

MBU AB-42 2

MBU AB-43 2

MBU AB-44 3

MBU AB-45 3

MBU/WAU AB-46 1

BT AB-47 2

MBU/ BT AB-48 1

WL/ MBU AB-49 na

MBU AB-50 1

MBU AB-51 1

WB AB-52 1

PL/ WB AB-53 2

PL AB-54 na

PL AB-55 2

WB AB-56 na

PL/ WB AB-57 na

PL AB-58 na

PL AB-59 2

PL AB-60 na

PL AB-61 1

PL AB-62 3

PL AB-63 3

WL AB-64 2

WL AB-65 1

WL AB-66 2

MBU AB-67 na

SRL/ WL AB-68 na

APl/ SRL/ AB-69 2 MBU

SRL AB-70 1

HRL/SRL AB-71 2

PL/ WL AB-72 2

PL AB-73 na

PL AB-74 1

4-6 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Agriculture Dune Community Energy Recreation & Eco-region Forestry Military Transportation Unknown Other Total Area & Mines Conservation Cultivation Grazing

WL AB-75 1

WL AB-76 na

Total 124 40 35 12 22 5 5 52 57 27 4

* existing management plan(s) available nr = no record available

Ecoregions Key: Apa = Aspen Parkland HRL = Hay River Lowland PL = Peace Lowland Apl = Athabasca Plain MBL = Mid-Boreal Lowland SRL = Slave River Lowland BT = Boreal Transition MBU = Mid-Boreal Uplands WAU = Western Alberta Upland CRU = Churchill River Upland MG = Mixed Grassland WB = Western Boreal ECR = Eastern Continental Range MMG = Moist Mixed Grassland WL = Wabasca Lowland FG = Fescue Grassland

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 4-7 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

4-8 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

APPENDIX 5

Land Use and Ecological Conditions in Focus Dune Areas (Stakeholder Presentations)

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 5-1 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

5-2 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Appendix 5 Land Use and Ecological Conditions in Focus Dune Areas (Stakeholder Presentations)

A workshop entitled “Shifting Sands: A Workshop on Climate Change and Land Use Management on Sand Dunes of the Prairie Provinces “ was organized by the Saskatchewan Research Council and Natural Resources Canada (Geological Survey of Canada) to provide an opportunity for community, government and resource management representatives to discuss land-use management issues on sand dunes in the Prairie Provinces. As part of this workshop, stakeholder representatives from each of the study areas presented brief overviews of the ecological conditions, land uses and management issues in their respective dune areas. These presentations are summarized below for Middle Sand Hills, Great Sand Hills, Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills, Manito Lake Sand Hills and the nearby Wainwright Dunes Ecological Reserve, Brandon Sand Hills, Fort à la Corne Sand Hills, and Nisbet Sand Hills.

1. MIDDLE SAND HILLS (Andy Didiuk, Canadian Wildlife Service)

Location and Description

Dunes are located in the Rural Municipality of Cypress and are almost entirely within the Canadian Forces Base Suffield. Prairie Ecozone, Mixed Grassland Ecoregion Dunes cover an area of 328 km2. There are extensive areas with stabilized dunes, with only a few dunes that are currently active.

Land Use Activities

GRAZING: The only grazing that occurs on sand dunes is within the Suffield PFRA pasture. Historically there were a number of feral horses living on military lands. Herd numbers continued to increase until concern was raised over the declining quality of some important springs. DND removed many of the horses from the area, and a quick rejuvenation of the springs (ie. shoreline regeneration) was observed. There are currently no feral horses left in the MSHs. OIL AND GAS: Alberta Energy Corporation has developed a network of exploration sites throughout the region. Since 1997, rapid oil and gas development has occurred on the MSHs due to diminishing oil and gas reserves. Oil and gas companies have expanded exploration efforts and have rejuvenated several old wells. The highest densities of developments are found in the northwest corner of base. MILITARY: Most of the MSHs are located within CFB Suffield. They are considered environmentally sensitive by the military, so stewardship is quite good. The dunes are off-bounds to most vehicular traffic, and have little military activity other than acting as a skipzone for shells. wildlife management (National Wildlife Area) some agency-directed research

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 5-3 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Management Issues/Future Concerns

GRAZING: Given the historical impacts of horse grazing, there is mounting concern over future ungulate grazing levels. The area currently supports white tailed deer and mule deer populations, and some consideration is being given to reintroducing bison or elk into the area. OIL AND GAS: One of the largest impacts associated with oil and gas activity is the construction of roads and the traffic they support. Until recently, the Alberta Energy Corporation has been successful in reducing impacts to the terrain by performing reclamation activities such as the placement of straw bales on road slopes to minimize downslope erosion caused by high traffic levels. However, it has become increasingly harder to keep up with the pace of development since the 1997 expansion of exploration efforts. The net result is an increase in the number of vehicles passing through the area and associated increases in sand erosion. This leads to the need for aggressive erosion control, particularly since drought conditions may induce dune activation. MILITARY: Even though the dune area is only minimally used by the military, fires associated with target practice are inevitable. Large portions of the base are burned every year, even though the military has fire control units. This results in high disturbance levels and changes in plant species composition. Fire also needs special consideration as it could act to reactivate the sand dunes. WILDLIFE and CLIMATE CHANGE: It is recognized that climate change may have considerable impacts on wildlife populations in dune area. Of particular concern are: the Ord’s Kangaroo Rat, which has a limited distribution and may be an obligate species of active dunes; the Great Plains Toad, which is found within the small number of interdune wetlands; and the Plains Hognose Snake, which is commonly found in active dune areas although it is not necessarily an obligate species. Several other snake species use dune areas for hibernation, and may be affected by climate change in dune areas if the small mammal specialists they depend on as prey were to be negatively affected by declining grass cover or dune reactivation. The long- term effects of changes in dune areas and subsequent changes in small mammal populations and the snake species that depend on them are still largely unknown. It is believed that there are likely threshold levels of acceptable change, but this has not been researched fully. CONSERVATION: Due to a pre-existing agreement between the oil and gas companies and DND, there has been major increases in development in the “wildlife protected area” owned by DND. Oil and gas companies are supposed to negotiate with DND on development activities, but so far these discussions have been minimal.

2. GREAT SAND HILLS (Lorne Veitch, Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food)

Location and Description

GSHs are located in southwest Saskatchewan. The north edge of the dune area is located 10 miles (16 km)south of Sceptre, the south edge is located near #1 Highway at Piapot, the west side is 6 or 7 miles (10 or 11 km) east of Fox Valley, and the east side is 6 or 7 miles (10 or 11 km) west of Hazlet. The GSHs is within the Rural Municipalities of Clintworth (N), Piapot (S), Foxvalley (W), and Pitville (E).

Prairie Ecozone, Mixed Grassland Ecoregion

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The dune area covers 775 mi2 (2000 km2), and is composed of sand flats, stabilized (ie. grassed over) dunes and open dunes. Active sand dunes cover an estimated 100 mi2 (260 km2), although some people tend to think this number is a bit high. GSHs are located in the Brown Soil Zone, with 5-6 inches (12-15 cm) of rainfall in May, June and July, and annual precipitation just over 13 inches (33 cm). Major grass species include needle-and-thread, northern wheat grass, western wheat grass, Indian rice grass, sand grass, sand reed, sand drop seed, salt grasses, as well as developed areas seeded to crested wheat grass. Many stabilized dunes have creeping cedar, rose bush and/or silver willow. There are also some localized cottonwood stands. There are also a number of mule deer and white-tailed deer in the area.

Land Use Activities

GRAZING: Ranching is the main use of the GSHs, approximately 620 mi2 (1600 km2) of which are Crown owned and administered by Saskatchewan Agriculture & Food’s Lands Branch. There are 2 provincial community pastures, 6 grazing Coops, and 10 large private leases, the largest lease being Block’s Ranching, at 56,000 acres (225 km2). Carrying capacities are generally from 0.2 - 0.3 AUMs/acre on the better sand flats, although lower levels between 0.15 and 0.2 AUMs/acre are more common in stabilized dune areas. Carrying capacities can be affected by large areas of active dunes, creeping cedar, silver willow, rose, sage brush, etc... It is estimated that, if sustainably managed, the GSHs could have a carrying capacity of up to 80,000 AUMs (ie. 10,000 cattle for 8 months). OIL & GAS: Natural gas development goes back to 1953, and has become a land use of considerable importance in the GSHs and surrounding areas. The main gas formations in the GSHs are between 350 and 700 metres deep, and are mostly located on the west and south sides of the sand hills. A 1977 study by Townley Smith found 90 wells in the GSHs, 49 of which were dry and abandoned, 22 shut in, and 19 oil wells. Today, there are approximately 1,150 wells (surface leases) on Crown lands within the 4 Rural Municipalities that comprise the major part of the GSHs. The 6 line Trans Canada pipeline runs in an east-west direction through the northern part of the GSH (just south of Sceptre). RECREATION: hunting, ecotourism, snowmobiling, trail riding, dog training TRANSPORTATION: A grid road known as the “sand road” runs west from Swift Current through the GSHs to #21 highway south of Fox Valley. There is also a bladed trail running east/west from Hazlet to Fox Valley through the GSH in Millie C pasture and known locally as the Millie road.

Management Issues/Future Concerns

GRAZING: Water resources are very important for grazing activities in the GSHs. Generally the GSHs are blessed with a high water table, and water for livestock comes from dugouts and shallow wells that are 30 to 50 feet (9 to 15 m) deep. These well sites are a source of vegetation disturbance on the area, as a large area surrounding the well site is kept void of vegetation. Most of the GSHs area is remote, so farmers rely on windmills and solar pumps to access water supply for grazing use. Better sustainability could be achieved if there were more water wells spread over a larger area, so the cattle could be better distributed.

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OIL & GAS: Most developments by the oil and gas industry in the GSHs only involve the extraction of natural gas, as there is very little oil development in the sand hills. This is fortunate, as gas developments tend to have less of an environmental impact than oil since natural gas can be piped out as opposed to hauled with heavy trucks. Minimal disturbance drilling techniques can also be used to access the natural gas to limit environmental disturbance. However, managers in the GSHs still need to identify which areas can and cannot be developed based on environmental sensitivity. They also need to identify the procedures and requirements necessary to sustainably develop and operate in the areas that can be developed. Site restoration through reclamation with native species also needs to be encouraged, and particular attention must be paid to eroding soils associated with pipelines. TRANSPORTATION: A major transportation issue in the sand hills is the erosion of existing transportation corridors. For instance, the Millie road is deeply eroded in several places, with ruts up to 4 feet (1.5 m) deep. There is pressure to keep these roads in good condition in order to avoid the creation of new trails, particularly since there is already an increasing number of access trails associated with gas developments. The most recent mitigation technique involves spreading gravel in the ruts to minimize trail erosion, making it easier for vegetation to be reestablished and restabilize the slopes. However, there is concern that some of the weedy species found in the gravel pits may be introduced to the GSHs when the gravel is spread on the trails. FIRE: Prairie fire is a threat to the GSHs, especially if it is followed by periods of prolonged drought. The combined impacts of fire and drought would likely lead to increased dune activity and increased soil erodibility. The Great Sand Hills Planning Committee put together The Great Sand Hills Land Use Strategy in 1991. It recommended a 4 land use zonation system in order to provide a means to guide the management and development of the GSHs. These areas include: Prime Protection Area (environmentally sensitive terrain and biological and heritage resources), Special Use Area (unique areas), Multiple Use Area (development of full range of resources), and Facility Area (existing facilities such as ranchers, pipelines, future facility development). The 4 Rural Municipalities in which the GSHs are found have zoning bylaws to address development issues. native seed harvest local research

1. DUNDURN/PIKE LAKE SAND HILLS (Bill Houston, PFRA Prairie Region)

Location and Description

Dunes are located just south of Saskatoon, in the Rural Municipalities of Dundurn and Corman Park. The Dundurn Military Reserve occupies most of the dune area. Prairie Ecozone, Moist Mixed Grassland Ecoregion Dunes cover an area of approximately 213,000 hectares (2130 km2). The area is heavily vegetated and the dunes are quite indistinct. Most dunes are stabilized by a variety of vegetation such as creeping juniper, aspen, chokecherry, rose, snowberry, bearberry, and grasses. There are at least 27 confirmed rare plant species in the dune area, including skeleton weed, sand dune wheatgrass, smooth goosefoot, and bur ragweed. Big game wildlife include white-tailed deer, mule deer, a small herd of elk, and some moose (mostly found with in the military base).

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Land Use Activities

55% of the land is private. Public lands are owned by federal (DND, PFRA), provincial (lease, park), and municipal (city, rural municipality) governments. AGRICULTURE: Agriculture is the dominant land use in the DSHs, with ~50% of the dune area being cultivated land (note that this number may be slightly exaggerated). Most of these agricultural lands grow wheat, summerfallow, alfalfa, barley, canola, oats, etc... 10% of the dune area is improved pastures, with mostly alfalfa crops. The remaining 40% of the dune land has other native rangeland uses, including livestock cattle, horses, pigs, poultry, and sheep. There is also some previous grass seeding in the area as well as some livestock wintering areas. MILITARY: CFB Dundurn occupies most of the sand hills. Military activities are divided into 5 types: infantry training (ground work), artillery training (big guns shooting to restricted impact area), armoured training (tanks), fixed range firing (target practice), and the Canadian Forces Ammunition Depot (storage and demolition of ammo). RECREATION: The sand hills are also used for recreational activities, including golfing, hiking, motorbiking, cross country skiing, horseback riding, hunting, and weekend sightseeing by Saskatoon residents along the “tourist highway” through a pasture. RESEARCH: The dune area is also used for educational purposes. The university carries out graduate and undergraduate research in the Bidulph Natural Area, elementary and high school classes use the Brightwater Environmental Research Centre, and the general public use Beaver Creek and Cranberry Flats - Meewasin. URBAN: Urbanization is encroaching on the dune area, as acreage developments extend south from Saskatoon. Other minor land uses include junk yards, target practice areas on private land, and a forestry reserve with Scotts and Jack Pines on the military base.

Management Concerns/Future Issues

The invasion of exotic species is becoming a greater concern. For example, leafy spurge can now be found in Elbow Sand Hills, located ~120 km south of Saskatoon, and is expected to move north into DSHs in the future. Fire is another concern, with questions around how much of a role it had in historical dune activation.

4. MANITO LAKE SAND HILLS (Jim Schmidt, Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food)

Location and Description

The MLSHs are located in west central Saskatchewan, just northwest of Unity, in the Rural Municipalities of Manito Lake, Senlac and Round Valley. Prairie Ecozone, Aspen Parkland Ecoregion The dune area covers 105,000 acres (425 km2). Most are stabilized with vegetation, although there are a few scattered semi-active dunes. The whole area is environmentally sensitive and biologically diverse, with a diverse landscape consisting of dunes, rugged topography and wetlands. The MLSHs support both boreal and grassland species, and represent “one of the largest areas of relatively undisturbed native

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vegetation in the aspen parkland region of Saskatchewan” (Manitou Sand Hills Planning and Advisory Committee, 1996). There are over 400 species of plants, 9 which are rare or endangered. The area is also important for resident and migratory birds and hosts representative species from all major bird types, including piping plovers (endangered) and a few other COSEWIC listed bird species. Some of the mammal species include white tailed deer, mule deer and furbearers.

Land Use Activities

The MLSHs are administered by Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food’s Lands Branch. AGRICULTURE: All the land is leased to 13 grazing units (Cooperatives) with 120 farms and 6000 cows. There is also limited hay production and some previous grass seedings in the area. OIL and GAS: Petroleum development has expanded rapidly during the past 10-12 years. There are plentiful oil and gas resources in the area, with an estimated 315 million barrels of oil available. There are currently 8 wells for natural gas in the MLSHs. RECREATION: There are many water-based recreational activities in the area, especially at Dillberry Lake Provincial Park. Recreational activities also occur in Suffern Lake Regional Park. The most popular recreation activities include camping, picnicking, fishing, hunting, golfing, hiking, nature photography and snowmobiling. Ecotourism has recently been approved, with provisions for 6 operators guiding up to 15 visitors each per day in May through October. Other land uses are: wildlife habitat, research, and conservation.

Management Issues/Future Concerns

AGRICULTURE: Major grazing concerns include the continuance of grazing leases under a park designation, impacts of grazing on wildlife habitat, distribution of livestock in certain areas, and enforcement of existing agreements. OIL & GAS: There are several concerns relating to oil and gas development in the area. Given the high potential for future exploration and development, there is particular concern regarding the impacts of oil and gas development on the environment. There are also questions regarding the impact of controls on oil and gas development, such as reduced employment and the loss of municipal and provincial revenue. RECREATION: With the approval of ecotourism in the land use management plan, there are some concerns on the possible impacts of ecotourism on wildlife and vegetation in the MLSHs region. CONSERVATION: The Manitou Sand Hills ecosystem is not currently represented in Saskatchewan’s Parks System Plan. However, there is some concern as to what effects the creation of a park would have, including effects on municipal tax assessments, grazing leases, road upgrading and maintenance, and oil and gas development. If there is a risk that these changes could result in reduced revenues to the province and local area, many questions will surface regarding whether or not there is an actual need for a park given the poor economic climate of the area. TRANSPORTATION: Two main concerns relating to transportation are the impacts of road and utility developments and unauthorized use of Crown lands. The Manitou Integrated Land Use Management Plan was developed in 1996. It divides the dune area into 3 zones - prime conservation areas, special management areas, and multiple use areas -

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with land use policies for each. The highest protection - prime conservation area - is for the protection of fragile ecosystems and limits new developments and oil and gas activity, while allowing the continuance of existing grazing and hunting activities. all information is in the Manitou Sand Hills Integrated Resource Management Plan by SERM, 1996.

5. WAINWRIGHT DUNES ECOLOGICAL RESERVE (Harry Loonen, Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development)

Location and Description

The WDER is located 22.5 km south of Wainwright, Alberta, with CFB Wainwright at its northern border. Prairie Ecozone, Aspen Parkland Ecoregion It covers an area of 3 by 4 miles (5 by 6.5 km, or 31 km2). It was established through a program in the mid-1980s, and was selected as an ecological reserve because it contains an extreme contrast of landscapes, ranging from sand dunes to fens/wetlands. The area contains over 400 species of plants, including 4 rare and 10 uncommon species. Faunal diversity is also high due to the presence of multiple habitat types, including the uncommon sand dune and fen complex. WDER contains over 100 species of birds, 1 reptile species, and 4 amphibian species. Mammals include white tailed deer, mule deer, non-breeding moose, coyotes, badgers, and fox.

Land Use Activities

GRAZING: The primary land use is grazing, which occurs on lands that are owned by one Coop. Carrying capacity ranges from 0.1 AUMs/acre in areas with dense juniper to 0.25 AUMs/acre in dune areas with a high capacity around the lake area. OIL & GAS: Oil and gas development is limited in the ecological reserve, with only one presently active well and no more permitted exploration due to ecological reserve status. However, there are extensive developments in the areas surrounding WDER. MILITARY: The ecological reserve shares its northern border with the Wainwright Military Reserve, but is largely unaffected by military activities. RECREATION: WILDLIFE HABITAT:

Management Issues/Future Concerns

The land was designated as an ecological reserve in 1988, and by bringing together a number of interest groups (conservationists, ranchers, sport hunters etc.) a plan was developed by 1992. However, even prior to the official designation, some steps to minimize impacts of land use activities were put into place. For instance, a grazing rotation was developed where the lake area is grazed in July, while the dunes are grazed from August onward. The plan has been fairly useful in allowing/disallowing activities. The committee meets once a year for status revision. Several changes have been noted over the past 20 years. In the early 80s, encroachment of poplar was a major concern. However, in the last 2-3 years, poplar is no longer spreading and may even

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be suffering some dieback. A lowering of the water table has also been observed, as many water sources in dugouts have become noticeably shallower and a bog in the area has been showing signs of contraction and less water. Not many changes have been observed with regards to grazing capacity yet.

6. BRANDON SAND HILLS (Lori Nichols, Spruce Woods Provincial Park)

Location and Description

The BSHs are located east of the city of Brandon, in the Rural Municipalities of North Cypress, South Cypress, Corwallis, Victoria and North Norfolk. Prairie Ecozone, Aspen Parkland Ecoregion BSH consist of a number of dune fields with a combined area of 1,400 km2. These dunes originated 12,000 years ago as deposits from glacial Lake Aggasiz that were 73 metres deep. Over time, dunes developed with an average depth of 15 metres. Most dunes are inactive, with the exception of the Spirit Sand Hills. A number of sinkholes are also present, including the well- known Devil’s punchbowl. The landscape consists of a mix of relict boreal forest, deciduous forest, and dunes. With such a variety, the biodiversity is quite high. Examples of rare species include the northern prairie skink (Manitoba’s only lizard), western hognose snake, pincushion cactus, and hairy prairie clover (COSEWIC threatened). Spruce Woods has at least 7 provincially rare species.

Land Use Activities

AGRICULTURE: Agricultural land uses include a PFRA pasture, agriculture (grains, potatoes), and first nations use (cattle, elk, medicinal plant harvesting, ceremonial). 30-40% of the area is agriculture that is under irrigation. OIL AND GAS: Oil and gas activities in Manitoba mostly occur in the extreme southwest corner of the province, in the Oak Lake area. There is no drilling around Brandon. FORESTRY: there is little forest harvest activity in the area. MILITARY: CFB Shilo is located just west of the park. There is an active environmental stewardship program in place which only allows the open dune areas to be used as a ricochet area. The military reserve is actually favorable for local biodiversity due to the large proportion of grassland cover arising from extensive fires from firing practices. This contrasts the adjacent provincial park which is mostly forested landscape where there has not been a fire in decades. CONSERVATION/RECREATION: 270 km2 have been set aside as provincial park, with the backcountry and heritage classifications being fully protected from development and harvesting. There are a number of interpretive trails in dune areas, as well as horseback riding, cross-country skiing, snowmobiling, hiking, mountain biking, camping and day use areas, and interpretive programs. some sand/gavel extraction

Management Issues/Future Concerns

MILITARY: one main future concern is the uncertainty associated with the military base. The German military has withdrawn, and it has not yet been decided what to do with the base.

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A prairie management plan was developed in 1996 for the park. In this plan, 16 sites were evaluated and suitable land uses determined. Some potential management techniques under consideration include controlled burns on a 5 year rotation, leafy spurge control program (flea- beetle release and chemical application around park perimeter and on major thoroughfares), and rotational grazing (twice per year).

7. FORT À LA CORNE SAND HILLS (Del Philips, Saskatchewan Environment and Resource Management)

Location and Description

The FALC dunes are located east of the city of Prince Albert, in Rural Municipalities of Torch River, Nipawin, Willow Creek, and Kinistino. Boreal Plains Ecozone, Boreal Transition Ecoregion The dunes cover an area of 1210 km2, and are all stabilized. This dune area is located in a forested area surrounded by agricultural land (ie. an “island forest”) in the transition zone from grasslands to boreal forest. Plant species include a mix from both ecozones, such as jack pine, aspen, alder, white spruce, black spruce, willow, rose, bearberry, snowberry, feathermoss, grasses, and sedges. The two most prevalent species are poplars - found along the river valley and the northern fringe of the forest - and jack pines - found in the core central area. There are at least 7 rare or endangered plant species in the area. Mammals include elk, moose, white tailed deer, black bear, wolves, coyotes, foxes, and furbearers. Wetlands provide good habitat for geese, ducks, sandhill cranes and amphibians. Several species of upland game birds are also present, as are some birds of prey, various small mammals, and one snake species.

Land Use Activities

Approximately 60% of the Fort à la Corne Provincial Forest is timber producing land. 25.5% is productive non-forest, which consists of burn overs, open land, scrub brush and cutovers. Only 13.5% is non-timber producing land, and 1% is water. AGRICULTURE: There are 5 active grazing permits in area, with a total of 125 head of cattle and horses. There is also 1 haying permit. FORESTRY: There are 3 forest product user types in FALC: residents, traditional quota users, and local commercial users. RECREATION: The provincial forest is designated as a Wildlife Management Unit to encourage the preservation of wildlife and their habitat. Recreational activities in the forest include cross- country skiing, horseback riding, hunting, snowmobiling, downhill skiing, hiking and canoeing. MINING: Although there is no current mineral production in the forest, there is a large potential for mining in the area. For instance, in the last year approximately 2 million dollars were spent on exploration efforts. SAND & GRAVEL: There are very few active quarries in the FALC area. TRADITIONAL USE: The forest is also used for traditional uses, including hunting, fishing, trapping, gathering, and ceremonial purposes. TRANSPORTATION: There are several roads through the forest, which are allowing increased access to timber and wildlife.

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Management Issues/Future Concerns

FORESTRY: FALC is currently doing an integrated forest land use plan with a variety of participants. Climate change is indicated as an issue in this document, although monitoring areas have yet to be identified. MINING: 1/3 of the forest is under lease for exploration. Exploration itself causes little disturbance, but the actual extraction would have a large impact as it would involve open-pit mining. Most finds have been in the central core south of English Creek, including diamond deposits (De Boers). In the future EIAs will be needed as mining may have impacts on the forest, wildlife and recreation. PROTECTED AREAS: There are several potential representative natural areas and an old IBP site in the forest, but there is large opposition from the mining sector for any official designations. TRANSPORTATION: Road access is also an issue, as there are access trails throughout the entire forest. Once a trail is put in and the underlying sand is exposed, there is very little vegetation regeneration so the road stays for a long time. These trails also permit increased access for hunters and fragment habitat, putting considerable stress on wildlife populations. They are trying to remove a few existing roads in order to reduce traffic in ungulate habitat to allow heavily harvested populations to recover. DISEASE: A dwarf mistletoe infestation in jack pines is fairly widespread throughout the area. There are ongoing programs for controlling/managing the disease through planned harvest, controlled burns, proper sanitation measures, and the use of buffers. There has been some talk of introducing red pine because of its resistance to mistletoe CLIMATE CHANGE: There are some concerns regarding climate-induced changes in fire frequency and severity, insect/disease outbreak, forest decline due to drought conditions, and encroachment of grasslands, and the associated effects on wildlife in the area. WATER: Another concern is that the water table is drying up, with several lakes turning into marshy areas. more information available in the Fort à la Corne Integrated Forest land Use Plan Background Information document, prepared by SERM, 1999.

8. NISBET SAND HILLS (Beatrice Regnier, Saskatchewan Environment and Resource Management)

Location and Description

The Nisbet Provincial Forest is located northwest of the city of Prince Albert, in the Rural Municipality of Buckland. Boreal Plains Ecozone, Boreal Transition Ecoregion There are approximately 131 km2 of dunes, all of which are inactive and heavily vegetated. Ecological conditions are very similar to Fort à la Corne. Tree species are primarily aspen in the south, and pine throughout the rest.

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Land Use Activities

GRAZING: There is some grazing on the southerly and easternmost edges of the Nisbet Provincial Forest. FORESTRY: Forestry activities include several Weyerhauser mills and harvesting areas. There is also a mistletoe infestation in the area, with salvage harvesting. PROTECTED AREAS: There are a few protected areas in the forest, including MacDowell Bog and a few recreation sites, as well as some sites of ecological value. RECREATION: Recreation activities include golfing, skiing around MacDowell Bog and near Prince Albert, horseback riding, hunting, target practice, snowmobiling and ATV use throughout the forest. There are also some educational activities related to forestry in the area. FIRST NATION: There are several Indian reserves in and around the forest, as well as a few treaty land entitlements. MINING: A few gravel pits are located in the central area of the forest reserve. URBAN: The city of Prince Albert’s associated urban pressures on the forest include residential development (especially on the North edge of the forest), a sewage lagoon northeast of Prince Albert, extensive trail and ATV use, residential/industrial expansion, linear developments and garbage dumps.

Management Issues/Future Concerns

FIRE: There is an increasing fire risk in the northern part of the Nisbet Provincial Forest due to the rapidly expanding residential area. These fire risks are of particular concern because some lands are already insufficiently stocked after big burns. For instance, an area which endured a fire in 1991 still shows poor regeneration. The mounting pressure to sell off chunks of forest bit by bit, resulting in fragmentation and cumulative impacts, is also of concern. An integrated forest management planning process has just been initiated for the provincial forest to deal with these issues.

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APPENDIX 6

Climatic Summaries for the Six Focus Dune Areas

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APPENDIX 6 Climatic Summaries for the Six Focus Dune Areas

The following series of tables present climate normals, model-simulated changes, and model- simulated future climates for all ecodistricts containing the six focus dune areas. The tables are organized by dune area, starting with Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1), followed by the Great Sand Hills (SK-7), Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16), Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23), Fort à la Corne/Nisbet Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28), and finally the Middle Sand Hills (AB-5). On the first page for each dune area, the name and identification number of the dune area is printed across the top of the page. Each subsequent page has a header line which shows the name of the dune area that the data is associated with. Directly under the dune area title on the first page, the ecozone, ecoregion, and ecodistrict(s) in which the dune area is located are listed. The next line shows the ecodistrict for which the data are being presented. The ecodistrict number is also printed on the header line of all subsequent pages with the dune area name.

For all ecodistricts, the 1961-1990 climate normals are presented first. A total of four tables are used to summarize all the available normals data:

S Climate Normals Table 1: Monthly and annual precipitation and temperature data; S Climate Normals Table 2: Monthly and annual data on potential evapotranspiration (PE) (Thornthwaite), P-PE, and P:PE ratio. A climatic classification for the whole ecodistrict is also given at the bottom of this table based on the annual P:PE ratio. If the ratio is between 0.75 and 1.00, the ecodistirct is classified as Humid. Scores between 0.65 and 0.75 are Sub-humid, while 0.50 to 0.65 are Dry Sub-humid and 0.2 to 0.5 Semi-arid. S Climate Normals Table 3: Data on growing degree days, as well as growing season start, end and duration; S Climate Normals Table 4: Monthly and annual water deficit data, using both the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith approaches, for soil moisture storage capacity of 100mm, 150mm, 200mm, and 250mm.

Once all normals have been summarized, a series of 2050s Change Tables are presented for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Thornthwaite) under doubled-CO2 conditions (ie. 2050s). Greenhouse Gas Only change values are presented first for CGCM1, ECHAM4, and HadCM3 results, followed by Greenhouse Gas with Aerosol change values for CGCM1 and HadCM3. Note that data are presented for each grid cell in which a given dune area is located. The ecodistricts and grid cells considered for each of the six dune areas are listed in Table A1.

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Table A1: Ecodistricts and Grid Cells Considered for Each Focus Dune Area

Grid Cell(s) Dune Area Ecodistrict(s) CGCM1 ECHAM4 HadCM3 Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757, 758 7,4 9,5 7,6 8,4 9,6 8,6 10,5 10,6 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 54 6,5 5,6 6,6 7,5 7,6 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15/16) 776 5,3 7,5 5,5 5,4 5,6 6,3 6,5 6,4 6,6 Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) 739 4,3 5,4 4,5 5,3 5,5 5,5 6,4 6,5 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27/28) 698, 701 6,3 7,4 6,4 7,5 6,5 8,4 8,5 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,4 5,5 4,6 5,4 5,6 5,6 6,5 6,6

The final series of tables present the simulated future temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (Thornthwaite), precipitation surplus/deficit and P:PE ratios for the 2050s. As with the 2050s Change Tables, Greenhouse Gas Only values are presented first for CGCM1, ECHAM4, and HadCM3 results, followed by Greenhouse Gas with Aerosol values for CGCM1 and HadCM3 for each grid cell in which a given dune area is located. For all scenarios, the first 2050s Future Climate Table presents future temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration values, which were obtained by summing the climate normals with the change values. Precipitation surplus/deficit and P:PE ratios, presented in the second 2050s Future Climate Table, were then calculated using these future precipitation and potential evapotranspiration values. As with the normal tables, a climatic classification was given for each ecodistrict based on the 2050s annual P:PE ratio. Again, if the ratio is between 0.75 and 1.00, the ecodistrict is classified as Humid, whereas scores between 0.65 and 0.75 are Sub-humid, 0.50 to 0.65 are Dry Sub-humid, and 0.2 to 0.5 Semi-arid.

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Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1)

ECOZONE: PRAIRIES ECOREGION: ASPEN PARKLAND ECODISTRICT(S): 757, 758

ECODISTRICT 757 1961 - 1990 Climate Normals

Table 1: Precipitation and Temperature (CanSIS Data)

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE TIME SLICE Total (mm) Snowfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Mean (°C) Minimum (°C) Maximum (°C) January 21 22 0 -17.9 -23.2 -12.3 February 20 19 0 -14.1 -20.1 -8.6 March 23 21 3 -6.7 -12.4 -1.4 April 39 12 27 3.6 -2.3 9.8 May 53 1 52 11.6 4.5 18.4 June 75 0 75 16.5 9.9 23.0 July 72 0 72 19.2 12.5 25.9 August 71 0 71 17.8 10.9 24.7 September 50 0 50 11.8 5.4 18.2 October 28 4 24 5.6 -0.4 11.4 November 17 15 2 -5.0 -9.7 -0.4 December 20 20 1 -14.5 -19.6 -9.4 Annual 482 112 372 2.4 -3.7 8.3

Table 2: Potential Evapotranspiration and Associated Variables (climate normals) (Derived from CanSIS)

POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION P/PE (Thornthwaite) TIME SLICE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (mm) SURPLUS/DEFICIT(mm) Ratio (Thornthwaite) P-PE (Thornthwaite) January 0 21 NA February 0 20 NA March 0 23 NA April 22 17 1.75 May 80 -27 0.67 June 115 -40 0.65 July 134 -63 0.54 August 113 -42 0.62 September 64 -13 0.79 October 27 1 1.02 November 0 17 NA December 0 20 NA Annual 555 -73 0.87 Climatic Classification: Humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-5 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Table 3: Growing Degree Days (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

VARIABLE VALUE (DAYS) Growing Season Start (calendar or Julian days) 112 Growing Season End (calendar or Julian days) 292 Growing Season Length (days) 181 Growing Degree-days Above 0°C 2633 Growing Degree-days Above 5°C 1650 Growing Degree-days Above 10°C 837 Growing Degree-days Above 15°C 259 Effective Growing Degree-days 1623

Table 4: Water Deficit (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

THORNTHWAITE WATER DEFICIT (MM)PENMAN WATER DEFICIT (MM) TIME SLICE 100 150 200 250 100 150 200 250 January00000000 February00000000 March 00000000 April 0000171011 May 111335374142 June 15 10 8 9 48 45 44 44 July 36 27 22 21 61 57 54 53 August 31 25 21 19 43 40 38 37 September1210 9 8 19181717 October00005555 November00000000 December 00000000 Annual 95 73 61 60 213 209 209 209

6-6 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Greenhouse Gas Only Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 6.9 1.63 0 7.0 11.07 0 February 8.0 4.45 0 8.1 -16.98 0 March 8.3 -3.54 5 8.1 5.72 4 April 6.3 40.33 25 7.4 63.80 31 May 4.3 8.24 17 4.4 5.36 17 June 3.7 -7.26 17 3.7 -1.37 17 July 3.9 -29.43 22 4.0 -15.45 23 August 3.6 18.14 16 3.9 9.33 18 September 4.7 -5.08 16 4.6 -16.87 15 October 3.1 21.92 5 3.0 5.57 5 November 2.9 -1.73 0 3.0 7.53 0 December 3.3 3.71 0 4.9 0.76 0 Annual 4.9 3.44 124 5.2 3.87 130

Table 2: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 9,5 (NW) Grid 9,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.7 6.82 0 4.0 11.90 0 February 4.6 6.59 0 4.4 3.53 0 March 4.7 8.16 0 4.7 5.88 0 April 4.0 25.83 14 3.7 43.31 11 May 2.7 31.67 7 3.0 24.24 8 June 3.3 -1.91 15 3.9 -26.52 19 July 3.5 -2.78 19 4.2 2.40 25 August 4.5 -33.51 23 4.7 -5.51 24 September 4.9 -6.10 18 5.3 -32.11 19 October 3.7 -4.44 9 3.9 -4.49 9 November 4.4 -15.09 0 4.1 -20.00 0 December 4.9 8.74 0 4.5 -3.53 0 Annual 4.3 0.96 105 4.4 -1.00 115

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-7 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 10,5 (NE) Grid 10,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 5.4 10.68 0 4.8 11.36 0 February 4.6 14.02 0 4.8 9.09 0 March 4.3 15.25 0 4.8 8.26 0 April 4.3 16.03 15 3.9 35.17 12 May 2.7 35.38 7 3.1 34.56 8 June 3.3 -13.36 15 3.8 -25.09 18 July 3.4 -5.84 19 4.3 5.85 25 August 4.3 -29.65 22 4.8 -18.00 25 September 4.8 -1.75 17 5.4 -32.31 20 October 3.9 0.00 10 4.1 0.94 10 November 4.6 -8.13 0 4.3 -5.94 0 December 5.1 6.98 0 4.7 -5.10 0 Annual 4.4 1.27 105 4.6 0.35 118

Table 4: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.9 17.82 0 4.2 15.37 0 February 2.7 24.43 0 2.9 32.19 0 March 1.4 33.86 0 1.4 21.65 0 April 1.8 37.23 3 1.9 22.72 3 May 1.5 36.46 0 1.5 37.98 0 June 2.5 12.62 10 2.6 18.41 11 July 3.9 -5.84 23 3.8 -5.34 22 August 4.3 -20.39 23 4.5 -17.42 24 September 4.9 -25.26 19 4.9 -20.35 19 October 3.8 13.28 10 3.9 23.01 11 November 2.8 1.17 0 2.4 8.16 0 December 5.2 29.31 0 4.9 28.54 0 Annual 3.2 9.30 87 3.3 10.37 88

6-8 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 5: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 6.1 -8.67 0 6.5 5.94 0 February 7.3 -3.02 0 6.3 1.21 0 March 7.1 16.21 1 5.5 -2.57 0 April 6.2 55.92 26 6.4 43.25 28 May 2.5 1.98 6 2.6 14.14 7 June 3.6 -10.83 18 3.4 -14.07 16 July 3.4 -13.20 19 3.2 -3.59 17 August 3.6 -33.33 17 3.6 -25.14 17 September 3.5 5.93 10 3.6 -8.89 11 October 2.8 27.53 5 2.6 39.67 5 November 1.6 8.57 0 1.5 4.00 0 December 4.9 2.91 0 5.7 -1.59 0 Annual 4.4 0.49 103 4.2 1.46 101

Table 6: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 1.9 1.99 0 2.1 3.04 0 February 3.0 17.49 0 2.6 16.31 0 March 2.5 14.50 0 2.8 25.34 0 April 3.0 26.60 10 2.5 30.04 7 May 2.2 -1.20 6 2.1 7.55 5 June 2.0 2.28 7 2.1 -2.22 8 July 3.7 -1.17 22 3.9 1.88 24 August 3.2 -10.55 16 3.6 -18.79 18 September 3.1 -12.65 10 3.2 -17.34 10 October 3.0 5.87 8 2.7 3.68 6 November 3.3 5.38 0 3.3 14.55 0 December 2.0 11.36 0 1.9 8.37 0 Annual 2.7 2.17 78 2.7 2.24 79

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-9 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Greenhouse Gas Only Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -11.0 21 0 -10.9 23 0 February -6.1 21 0 -6.0 17 0 March 1.6 22 5 1.4 24 4 April 9.9 54 48 11.0 64 54 May 15.9 58 97 16.0 56 97 June 20.2 70 133 20.2 74 132 July 23.1 51 156 23.2 61 157 August 21.4 83 129 21.7 77 131 September 16.5 48 79 16.4 42 78 October 8.7 34 32 8.6 29 32 November -2.1 16 0 -2.0 18 0 December -11.2 21 0 -9.6 20 0 Annual 7.2 504 679 7.5 507 685

Table 2: CGCM1-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 21 NA 23 NA February 21 NA 17 NA March 17 4.56 20 6.15 April 7 1.14 10 1.19 May -40 0.59 -41 0.58 June -63 0.52 -58 0.56 July -106 0.32 -96 0.39 August -46 0.64 -54 0.59 September -32 0.60 -37 0.53 October 1 1.04 -2 0.93 November 16 NA 18 NA December 21 NA 20 NA Annual -175 0.74 -178 0.74 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

6-10 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 9,5 (NW) Grid 9,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -13.3 22 0 -13.9 23 0 February -9.5 22 0 -9.7 21 0 March -2.0 25 0 -2.0 24 0 April 7.6 49 36 7.3 56 33 May 14.3 70 87 14.6 66 88 June 19.8 74 130 20.4 55 134 July 22.7 70 154 23.4 74 159 August 22.3 47 136 22.5 67 137 September 16.7 47 81 17.1 34 83 October 9.3 26 36 9.5 26 36 November -0.6 14 0 -0.9 13 0 December -9.6 22 0 -10.0 19 0 Annual 6.7 487 660 6.8 477 670

Table 4: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 10,5 (NE) Grid 10,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -12.6 23 0 -13.2 23 0 February -9.5 23 0 -9.3 22 0 March -2.4 26 0 -1.9 25 0 April 7.9 45 37 7.5 52 34 May 14.3 72 87 14.7 72 88 June 19.8 65 130 20.3 56 133 July 22.6 68 153 23.5 76 160 August 22.1 50 135 22.6 58 138 September 16.6 49 81 17.2 34 83 October 9.5 28 37 9.7 28 37 November -0.5 15 0 -0.8 16 0 December -9.4 22 0 -9.8 19 0 Annual 6.8 488 660 7.0 484 673

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-11 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Table 5: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 9,5 (NW) Grid 9,6 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 22 NA 23 NA February 22 NA 21 NA March 25 NA 24 NA April 13 1.37 22 1.67 May -17 0.81 -22 0.75 June -57 0.57 -79 0.41 July -84 0.45 -85 0.46 August -89 0.34 -71 0.49 September -34 0.58 -49 0.41 October -10 0.73 -10 0.73 November 14 NA 13 NA December 22 NA 19 NA Annual -173 0.74 -193 0.71 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

Table 6: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 10,5 (NE) Grid 10,6 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 23 NA 23 NA February 23 NA 22 NA March 26 NA 25 NA April 8 1.20 18 1.54 May -15 0.83 -17 0.81 June -65 0.50 -77 0.42 July -85 0.44 -83 0.48 August -85 0.37 -80 0.42 September -31 0.61 -49 0.41 October -9 0.75 -9 0.76 November 15 NA 16 NA December 22 NA 19 NA Annual -172 0.74 -189 0.72 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

6-12 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Table 7: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -14.0 24 0 -13.7 24 0 February -11.4 25 0 -11.2 27 0 March -5.3 30 0 -5.3 28 0 April 5.4 53 25 5.5 48 25 May 13.1 73 80 13.1 73 80 June 19.0 84 125 19.1 89 126 July 23.1 68 157 23.0 68 157 August 22.1 56 135 22.3 58 137 September 16.7 38 82 16.7 40 82 October 9.4 31 37 9.5 34 38 November -2.2 17 0 -2.6 18 0 December -9.3 26 0 -9.6 26 0 Annual 5.6 527 642 5.7 532 644

Table 8: HadCM3-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 24 NA 24 NA February 25 NA 27 NA March 30 NA 28 NA April 28 2.14 22 1.88 May -7 0.91 -6 0.92 June -41 0.68 -37 0.71 July -90 0.43 -89 0.43 August -79 0.41 -78 0.43 September -45 0.46 -42 0.49 October -6 0.84 -4 0.90 November 17 NA 18 NA December 26 NA 26 NA Annual -115 0.82 -112 0.83 Climatic Classification: Humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-13 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 9: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -11.8 19 0 -11.4 22 0 February -6.8 20 0 -7.8 21 0 March 0.4 26 1 -1.2 22 0 April 9.8 60 49 10.0 56 50 May 14.1 54 86 14.2 61 87 June 20.1 67 133 19.9 64 132 July 22.6 62 153 22.4 69 152 August 21.4 47 130 21.4 53 130 September 15.3 53 74 15.4 46 75 October 8.4 35 32 8.2 39 32 November -3.4 18 0 -3.5 17 0 December -9.6 21 0 -8.8 20 0 Annual 6.8 484 658 6.6 489 656

Table 10: CGCM1-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 19 NA 22 NA February 20 NA 21 NA March 25 23.98 22 NA April 12 1.24 6 1.11 May -32 0.63 -26 0.70 June -66 0.50 -67 0.49 July -91 0.41 -82 0.46 August -83 0.36 -77 0.41 September -21 0.72 -29 0.61 October 3 1.09 7 1.22 November 18 NA 17 NA December 21 NA 20 NA Annual -174 0.74 -167 0.75 Climatic Classification: Grid 7,4 Sub-humid; Grid 8,4 Humid to Sub-humid

6-14 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 757

Table 11: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -16.0 21 0 -15.8 21 0 February -11.1 24 0 -11.5 24 0 March -4.2 26 0 -4.0 28 0 April 6.6 49 32 6.1 50 30 May 13.8 53 86 13.7 57 85 June 18.5 77 122 18.6 73 123 July 22.9 71 156 23.1 73 158 August 21.0 63 128 21.4 57 131 September 14.9 44 73 15.0 41 74 October 8.6 29 35 8.3 29 33 November -1.7 17 0 -1.7 19 0 December -12.5 22 0 -12.6 22 0 Annual 5.1 493 634 5.1 493 634

Table 12: HadCM3-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 21 NA 21 NA February 24 NA 24 NA March 26 NA 28 NA April 17 1.52 21 1.70 May -33 0.61 -28 0.67 June -46 0.63 -50 0.60 July -85 0.45 -85 0.46 August -65 0.49 -74 0.44 September -29 0.60 -32 0.56 October -5 0.84 -5 0.86 November 17 NA 19 NA December 22 NA 22 NA Annual -141 0.78 -141 0.78 Climatic Classification: Humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-15 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

ECODISTRICT 758 1961 - 1990 Climate Normals

Table 1: Precipitation and Temperature (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE TIME SLICE Total (mm) Snowfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Mean (°C) Minimum (°C) Maximum (°C) January 23 23 0 -17.5 -23.0 -12.1 February 20 20 0 -14.1 -19.8 -8.5 March 24 20 4 -6.6 -12.1 -1.2 April 38 12 25 3.9 -2.4 10.0 May 52 1 51 11.7 4.5 18.8 June 74 0 74 16.8 9.9 23.6 July 72 0 72 19.3 12.3 26.2 August 70 0 70 18.0 10.7 25.2 September 52 0 51 11.9 5.2 18.6 October 28 4 24 5.4 -0.7 11.6 November 18 15 3 -4.9 -9.7 -0.2 December 21 20 1 -14.3 -19.5 -9.4 Annual 493 114 376 2.4 -3.8 8.5

Table 2: Potential Evapotranspiration and Associated Variables (climate normals) (Derived from CanSIS)

POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION P/PE (Thornthwaite) TIME SLICE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (mm) SURPLUS/DEFICIT(mm) Ratio (Thornthwaite) (P-PE) Thornthwaite January 0 22 NA February 0 20 NA March 0 24 NA April 24 14 1.60 May 80 -28 0.65 June 117 -42 0.64 July 135 -63 0.53 August 114 -44 0.62 September 64 -12 0.81 October 26 2 1.09 November 0 18 NA December 0 21 NA Annual 558 -66 0.88 Climatic Classification: Humid

6-16 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Table 3: Growing Degree Days (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

VARIABLE VALUE (DAYS) Growing Season Start (calendar or Julian days) 111 Growing Season End (calendar or Julian days) 291 Growing Season Length (days) 181 Growing Degree-days Above 0°C 2659 Growing Degree-days Above 5°C 1674 Growing Degree-days Above 10°C 860 Growing Degree-days Above 15°C 277 Effective Growing Degree-days 1640

Table 4: Water Deficit (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

THORNTHWAITE WATER DEFICIT(MM)PENMAN WATER DEFICIT (MM) TIME SLICE 100 150 200 250 100 150 200 250 January00000000 February00000000 March 00000000 April 0000291214 May 211344454951 June 17 11 9 9 59 55 54 54 July 37 28 23 22 68 64 61 59 August 32 26 21 20 51 48 46 45 September 11 9 8 7 23 22 21 21 October00007777 November00000000 December 00000000 Annual 99 75 62 60 256 250 250 250

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-17 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Greenhouse Gas Only Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 6.9 1.63 0 7.0 11.07 0 February 8.0 4.45 0 8.1 -16.98 0 March 8.3 -3.54 5 8.1 5.72 4 April 6.3 40.33 25 7.4 63.80 31 May 4.3 8.24 17 4.4 5.36 17 June 3.7 -7.26 18 3.7 -1.37 17 July 3.9 -29.43 22 4.0 -15.45 23 August 3.6 18.14 17 3.9 9.33 18 September 4.7 -5.08 16 4.6 -16.87 15 October 3.1 21.92 5 3.0 5.57 5 November 2.9 -1.73 0 3.0 7.53 0 December 3.3 3.71 0 4.9 0.76 0 Annual 4.9 3.44 125 5.2 3.87 131

Table 2: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 9,5 (NW) Grid 9,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.7 6.82 0 4.0 11.90 0 February 4.6 6.59 0 4.4 3.53 0 March 4.7 8.16 0 4.7 5.88 0 April 4.0 25.83 13 3.7 43.31 11 May 2.7 31.67 7 3.0 24.24 8 June 3.3 -1.91 15 3.9 -26.52 19 July 3.5 -2.78 20 4.2 2.40 25 August 4.5 -33.51 24 4.7 -5.51 25 September 4.9 -6.10 18 5.3 -32.11 20 October 3.7 -4.44 9 3.9 -4.49 9 November 4.4 -15.09 0 4.1 -20.00 0 December 4.9 8.74 0 4.5 -3.53 0 Annual 4.3 0.96 105 4.4 -1.00 116

6-18 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 10,5 (NE) Grid 10,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 5.4 10.68 0 4.8 11.36 0 February 4.6 14.02 0 4.8 9.09 0 March 4.3 15.25 0 4.8 8.26 0 April 4.3 16.03 15 3.9 35.17 12 May 2.7 35.38 7 3.1 34.56 8 June 3.3 -13.36 15 3.8 -25.09 18 July 3.4 -5.84 19 4.3 5.85 26 August 4.3 -29.65 22 4.8 -18.00 25 September 4.8 -1.75 17 5.4 -32.31 20 October 3.9 0.00 10 4.1 0.94 10 November 4.6 -8.13 0 4.3 -5.94 0 December 5.1 6.98 0 4.7 -5.10 0 Annual 4.4 1.27 105 4.6 0.35 119

Table 4: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-19 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 5: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 6.1 -8.67 0 6.5 5.94 0 February 7.3 -3.02 0 6.3 1.21 0 March 7.1 16.21 1 5.5 -2.57 0 April 6.2 55.92 26 6.4 43.25 28 May 2.5 1.98 6 2.6 14.14 7 June 3.6 -10.83 18 3.4 -14.07 17 July 3.4 -13.20 19 3.2 -3.59 18 August 3.6 -33.33 17 3.6 -25.14 18 September 3.5 5.93 10 3.6 -8.89 11 October 2.8 27.53 5 2.6 39.67 5 November 1.6 8.57 0 1.5 4.00 0 December 4.9 2.91 0 5.7 -1.59 0 Annual 4.4 0.49 104 4.2 1.46 102

Table 6: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

6-20 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Greenhouse Gas Only Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050 (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 1: GCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE January -10.6 23 0 -10.5 25 0 February -6.1 21 0 -6.0 16 0 March 1.7 23 5 1.5 25 4 April 10.2 53 49 11.3 62 55 May 16.0 56 97 16.1 55 98 June 20.5 69 134 20.5 73 134 July 23.2 51 157 23.3 61 158 August 21.6 83 130 21.9 77 132 September 16.6 49 80 16.5 43 79 October 8.5 34 31 8.4 30 30 November -2.0 17 0 -1.9 19 0 December -11.0 22 0 -9.4 21 0 Annual 7.4 507 684 7.7 509 689

Table 2: CGCM1-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 23 NA 25 NA February 21 NA 16 NA March 18 4.53 21 5.92 April 4 1.08 7 1.13 May -41 0.58 -43 0.56 June -65 0.51 -61 0.55 July -106 0.32 -97 0.38 August -47 0.64 -55 0.58 September -31 0.62 -36 0.55 October 3 1.09 -1 0.97 November 17 NA 19 NA December 22 NA 21 NA Annual -177 0.74 -180 0.74 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-21 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 9,5 (NW) Grid 9,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -12.9 24 0 -13.5 25 0 February -9.5 21 0 -9.7 20 0 March -1.9 25 0 -1.9 25 0 April 7.9 47 37 7.6 54 34 May 14.4 68 87 14.7 64 88 June 20.1 73 132 20.7 55 136 July 22.8 70 154 23.5 73 159 August 22.5 47 137 22.7 66 138 September 16.8 48 82 17.2 35 83 October 9.1 27 35 9.3 27 35 November -0.5 15 0 -0.8 14 0 December -9.4 23 0 -9.8 20 0 Annual 6.7 497 664 6.8 488 674

Table 4: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 10,5 (NE) Grid 10,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -12.2 25 0 -12.8 25 0 February -9.5 23 0 -9.3 22 0 March -2.3 27 0 -1.8 25 0 April 8.2 44 39 7.8 51 35 May 14.4 70 87 14.8 70 89 June 20.1 64 132 20.6 56 135 July 22.7 68 153 23.6 76 160 August 22.3 49 136 22.8 58 139 September 16.7 51 81 17.3 35 84 October 9.3 28 36 9.5 28 36 November -0.4 16 0 -0.7 17 0 December -9.2 22 0 -9.6 20 0 Annual 6.8 499 664 7.0 494 677

6-22 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Table 5: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 9,5 (NW) Grid 9,6 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 24 NA 25 NA February 21 NA 20 NA March 25 NA 25 NA April 10 1.28 20 1.57 May -19 0.78 -24 0.73 June -59 0.55 -81 0.40 July -84 0.45 -86 0.46 August -91 0.34 -72 0.48 September -33 0.59 -48 0.42 October -8 0.77 -8 0.77 November 15 NA 14 NA December 23 NA 20 NA Annual -166 0.75 -187 0.72 Climatic Classification: Grid 9,5 Humid to Sub-humid; Grid 9,6 Sub-humid

Table 6: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 10,5 (NE) Grid 10,6 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 25 NA 25 NA February 23 NA 22 NA March 27 NA 25 NA April 5 1.13 16 1.44 May -17 0.81 -19 0.79 June -68 0.49 -79 0.41 July -86 0.44 -84 0.47 August -87 0.36 -81 0.41 September -30 0.63 -49 0.42 October -8 0.79 -7 0.79 November 16 NA 17 NA December 22 NA 20 NA Annual -165 0.75 -183 0.73 Climatic Classification: Grid 10,5 Humid to Sub-humid; Grid 10,6 Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-23 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Table 7: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -13.6 26 0 -13.3 26 0 February -11.4 25 0 -11.2 26 0 March -5.2 31 0 -5.2 29 0 April 5.7 52 26 5.8 46 27 May 13.2 71 80 13.2 71 80 June 19.3 84 127 19.4 88 128 July 23.2 68 158 23.1 68 157 August 22.3 56 137 22.5 58 138 September 16.8 39 83 16.8 41 82 October 9.2 32 36 9.3 34 37 November -2.1 18 0 -2.5 19 0 December -9.1 27 0 -9.4 27 0 Annual 5.6 538 646 5.7 544 648

Table 8: HadCM3-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 26 NA 26 NA February 25 NA 26 NA March 31 NA 29 NA April 26 1.98 20 1.74 May -9 0.88 -8 0.90 June -43 0.66 -39 0.69 July -90 0.43 -89 0.43 August -81 0.41 -80 0.42 September -44 0.47 -41 0.50 October -4 0.88 -2 0.94 November 18 NA 19 NA December 27 NA 27 NA Annual -108 0.83 -104 0.84 Climatic Classification: Humid

6-24 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 9: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE January -11.4 20 0 -11.0 24 0 February -6.8 19 0 -7.8 20 0 March 0.5 27 1 -1.1 23 0 April 10.1 59 50 10.3 54 51 May 14.2 53 86 14.3 59 87 June 20.4 66 135 20.2 64 133 July 22.7 62 154 22.5 69 152 August 21.6 47 131 21.6 53 131 September 15.4 55 74 15.5 47 75 October 8.2 36 31 8.0 39 30 November -3.3 19 0 -3.4 19 0 December -9.4 22 0 -8.6 21 0 Annual 6.8 495 662 6.6 500 660

Table 10: CGCM1-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (W) Grid 8,4 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 20 NA 24 NA February 19 NA 20 NA March 26 21.01 23 NA April 9 1.18 3 1.05 May -33 0.61 -28 0.68 June -68 0.49 -69 0.48 July -91 0.41 -83 0.45 August -84 0.36 -79 0.40 September -19 0.74 -28 0.63 October 5 1.15 9 1.29 November 19 NA 19 NA December 22 NA 21 NA Annual -167 0.75 -160 0.76 Climatic Classification: Grid 7,4 Humid to Sub-humid; Grid 8,4 Humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-25 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) Ecodistrict 758

Table 11: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -15.6 23 0 -15.4 23 0 February -11.1 23 0 -11.5 23 0 March -4.1 27 0 -3.9 29 0 April 6.9 48 34 6.4 49 31 May 13.9 51 86 13.8 56 85 June 18.8 76 124 18.9 73 125 July 23.0 71 157 23.2 73 158 August 21.2 63 129 21.6 57 132 September 15.0 45 73 15.1 43 74 October 8.4 30 34 8.1 29 32 November -1.6 19 0 -1.6 20 0 December -12.3 23 0 -12.4 23 0 Annual 5.1 503 637 5.1 504 637

Table 12: HadCM3-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,6 (W) Grid 8,6 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 23 NA 23 NA February 23 NA 23 NA March 27 NA 29 NA April 14 1.42 18 1.59 May -35 0.59 -30 0.65 June -48 0.61 -52 0.58 July -86 0.45 -85 0.46 August -67 0.49 -75 0.43 September -28 0.61 -31 0.58 October -4 0.88 -3 0.91 November 19 NA 20 NA December 23 NA 23 NA Annual -134 0.79 -134 0.79 Climatic Classification: Humid

6-26 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7)

ECOZONE: PRAIRIES ECOREGION: MIXED GRASSLAND ECODISTRICT(S): 819

ECODISTRICT 819 1961 - 1990 Climate Normals

Table 1: Precipitation and Temperature Normals (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE TIME SLICE Total (mm) Snowfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Mean (°C) Minimum (°C) Maximum (°C) January 18 18 0 -13.2 -19.5 -7.7 February 13 13 0 -9.3 -15.3 -3.6 March 17 16 1 -3.1 -9.0 2.7 April 24 10 13 5.1 -1.7 12.0 May 41 3 38 11.6 4.2 19.0 June 56 0 56 16.3 8.8 23.7 July 50 0 50 19.0 11.1 26.9 August 33 0 33 18.2 10.1 26.3 September 30 3 27 12.1 4.5 19.6 October 14 5 9 6.2 -1.1 13.4 November 13 11 2 -3.8 -9.7 1.9 December 20 20 1 -10.9 -16.7 -5.3 Annual 329 99 230 3.9 -2.9 10.7

Table 2: Potential Evapotranspiration and Associated Variables (climate normals) (Derived from CanSIS)

TIME POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PRECIPITATION SURPLUS/DEFICIT(mm) P/PE (Thornthwaite) SLICE (mm) (Thornthwaite) (P-PE)Thornthwaite Ratio

January 0 18 NA February 0 13 NA March 0 17 NA April 31 -7 0.77 May 79 -38 0.52 June 113 -58 0.49 July 133 -82 0.38 August 115 -82 0.29 September 65 -35 0.46 October 29 -15 0.47 November 0 13 NA December 0 20 NA Annual 564 -236 0.58 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-27 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Table 3: Growing Degree Days (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

VARIABLE VALUE (DAYS) Growing Season Start (calendar or Julian days) 107 Growing Season End (calendar or Julian days) 294 Growing Season Length (days) 188 Growing Degree-days Above 0°C 2707 Growing Degree-days Above 5°C 1682 Growing Degree-days Above 10°C 841 Growing Degree-days Above 15°C 261 Effective Growing Degree-days 1665

Table 4: Water Deficit (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

THORNTHWAITE WATER DEFICIT(MM)PENMAN WATER DEFICIT (MM) TIME SLICE 100 150 200 250 100 150 200 250 January00000000 February00000000 March 00000000 April 134438455154 May 1317202191919294 June 34 36 37 38 111 108 106 106 July 63 60 59 59 133 130 128 127 August 72 69 66 65 134 133 131 130 September3433313180797878 October1414131351515150 November00000000 December 00000000 Annual 231 231 231 231 638 638 638 638

6-28 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Greenhouse Gas Only Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 5,4 Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 5.2 -0.47 0 February 7.1 3.48 0 March 6.7 18.38 13 April 5.4 46.57 20 May 4.2 17.26 17 June 3.7 -0.59 17 July 3.3 -19.78 17 August 3.3 -4.17 15 September 4.3 -1.98 14 October 3.1 22.49 6 November 2.8 3.33 0 December 2.0 0.94 0 Annual 4.3 7.15 119

Table 2: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NW) Grid 6,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 2.9 23.46 0 3.1 12.96 0 February 3.9 5.10 0 3.9 -6.77 0 March 4.0 2.73 3 3.6 -0.76 1 April 3.3 24.41 9 3.2 19.87 8 May 2.3 3.76 4 2.5 -4.59 4 June 3.4 -4.40 16 4.1 -24.41 20 July 3.7 -7.53 21 4.6 -0.53 28 August 4.6 -21.15 25 5.1 0.00 28 September 4.6 1.28 17 5.1 -25.00 19 October 3.0 -6.82 6 3.3 -12.90 6 November 3.6 -13.39 0 3.1 -15.22 0 December 4.0 6.90 0 3.2 -2.68 0 Annual 3.7 -0.61 100 3.9 -5.53 114

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-29 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change 2050s)

Grid 7,5 (NE) Grid 7,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.3 11.69 0 3.1 15.46 0 February 4.2 3.53 0 4.1 -8.70 0 March 4.4 3.09 4 4.0 -2.40 2 April 3.5 33.01 10 3.4 30.14 9 May 2.5 13.81 6 2.7 -4.26 6 June 3.4 3.98 16 4.2 -29.15 21 July 3.5 -5.86 19 4.3 7.26 25 August 4.4 -27.27 23 4.7 3.45 25 September 4.7 -8.45 17 5.1 -27.66 19 October 3.2 -7.89 7 3.4 -14.29 7 November 3.9 -15.84 0 3.5 -21.60 0 December 4.4 4.94 0 3.6 -2.13 0 Annual 3.9 0.27 102 4.0 -5.21 114

Table 4: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 5,6 Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.1 23.52 0 February 3.1 27.21 0 March 2.9 31.56 0 April 1.3 52.95 -1 May 1.6 38.32 1 June 2.4 4.56 9 July 3.9 -1.46 23 August 4.3 -23.45 23 September 5.0 -35.58 20 October 3.4 37.83 9 November 2.7 12.51 0 December 4.8 22.38 0 Annual 3.3 13.35 83

6-30 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 5: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 5,4 Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.6 -4.12 0 February 5.7 -7.02 0 March 5.0 9.16 7 April 5.2 41.47 21 May 3.3 17.35 13 June 3.2 -5.25 15 July 2.9 -10.83 15 August 2.6 -26.18 11 September 3.0 12.35 8 October 2.6 6.80 5 November 1.7 2.71 0 December 2.7 -0.84 0 Annual 3.6 2.06 95

Table 6: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 5,6 Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 1.1 33.93 0 February 3.1 28.90 0 March 3.6 14.22 2 April 1.7 15.73 3 May 2.2 -11.23 6 June 2.1 10.17 8 July 3.6 -7.08 21 August 3.8 13.22 20 September 3.0 -15.44 9 October 2.6 -8.06 6 November 2.7 6.88 0 December 2.2 25.84 0 Annual 2.7 3.63 75

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-31 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Greenhouse Gas Only Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,4 Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -8.0 18 0 February -2.2 13 0 March 3.6 20 13 April 10.5 35 51 May 15.8 48 96 June 20.0 55 131 July 22.3 40 150 August 21.5 32 130 September 16.4 29 79 October 9.3 17 35 November -1.0 14 0 December -8.9 20 0 Annual 8.3 352 684

Table 2: CGCM1-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,4 Month P-PE (mm) P/PE January 18 NA February 13 NA March 7 1.58 April -16 0.68 May -48 0.50 June -75 0.42 July -110 0.27 August -98 0.24 September -49 0.37 October -18 0.49 November 14 NA December 20 NA Annual -331 0.52 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

6-32 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NW) Grid 6,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -10.3 23 0 -10.1 21 0 February -5.4 13 0 -5.4 12 0 March 0.9 17 3 0.5 17 1 April 8.4 29 40 8.3 28 38 May 13.9 42 84 14.1 39 84 June 19.7 53 129 20.4 42 134 July 22.7 47 154 23.6 50 160 August 22.8 26 140 23.3 33 143 September 16.7 30 81 17.2 22 83 October 9.2 13 35 9.5 12 36 November -0.3 12 0 -0.7 11 0 December -7.0 22 0 -7.7 20 0 Annual 7.6 327 665 7.8 311 678

Table 4: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,5 (NE) Grid 7,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -9.9 21 0 -10.1 21 0 February -5.1 13 0 -5.2 12 0 March 1.3 17 4 0.9 16 2 April 8.6 31 41 8.5 31 39 May 14.1 47 85 14.3 39 85 June 19.7 58 129 20.5 40 135 July 22.5 47 152 23.3 54 158 August 22.6 24 138 22.9 34 140 September 16.8 27 82 17.2 22 83 October 9.4 13 36 9.6 12 36 November 0.1 11 0 -0.3 10 0 December -6.5 21 0 -7.3 20 0 Annual 7.8 330 667 7.9 312 678

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-33 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Table 5: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NW) Grid 6,6 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 23 NA 21 NA February 13 NA 12 NA March 15 6.86 15 15.07 April -10 0.74 -10 0.74 May -41 0.51 -45 0.47 June -76 0.41 -92 0.32 July -107 0.30 -110 0.31 August -114 0.19 -110 0.23 September -51 0.37 -61 0.27 October -22 0.37 -23 0.34 November 12 NA 11 NA December 22 NA 20 NA Annual -338 0.49 -368 0.46 Climatic Classification: Semi-arid

Table 6: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,5 (NE) Grid 7,6 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 21 NA 21 NA February 13 NA 12 NA March 13 4.41 14 7.09 April -10 0.77 -9 0.78 May -38 0.55 -46 0.46 June -71 0.45 -95 0.29 July -105 0.31 -104 0.34 August -114 0.17 -106 0.24 September -54 0.34 -61 0.26 October -23 0.36 -24 0.33 November 11 111.93 10 NA December 21 NA 20 NA Annual -337 0.49 -367 0.46 Climatic Classification: Semi-arid

6-34 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Table 7: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,6 Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -9.1 23 0 February -6.2 16 0 March -0.2 22 0 April 6.4 36 30 May 13.2 57 80 June 18.7 58 123 July 22.9 50 156 August 22.5 25 138 September 17.1 19 84 October 9.6 19 38 November -1.1 15 0 December -6.1 25 0 Annual 7.2 373 648

Table 8: HadCM3-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,6 Month P-PE (mm) P/PE January 23 NA February 16 NA March 22 NA April 6 1.21 May -23 0.71 June -64 0.48 July -106 0.32 August -113 0.18 September -65 0.23 October -19 0.51 November 15 NA December 25 NA Annual -275 0.58 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-35 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 9: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,4 Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -8.6 18 0 February -3.6 12 0 March 1.9 18 7 April 10.3 33 52 May 14.9 48 92 June 19.5 53 129 July 21.9 45 148 August 20.8 24 126 September 15.1 34 73 October 8.8 15 34 November -2.1 14 0 December -8.2 20 0 Annual 7.5 335 660

Table 10: CGCM1-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,4 Month P-PE (mm) P/PE January 18 NA February 12 NA March 12 2.80 April -18 0.64 May -44 0.52 June -76 0.41 July -103 0.30 August -102 0.19 September -39 0.46 October -19 0.43 November 14 NA December 20 NA Annual -324 0.51 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

6-36 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Great Sand Hills (SK-7) Ecodistrict 819

Table 11: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,6 Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -12.1 25 0 February -6.2 16 0 March 0.5 19 2 April 6.8 27 33 May 13.8 36 85 June 18.4 61 121 July 22.6 47 154 August 22.0 37 135 September 15.1 25 74 October 8.8 13 35 November -1.1 14 0 December -8.7 25 0 Annual 6.6 341 639

Table 12: HadCM3-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,6 Month P-PE (mm) P/PE January 25 NA February 16 NA March 18 12.72 April -6 0.83 May -49 0.43 June -60 0.51 July -107 0.30 August -98 0.28 September -49 0.34 October -22 0.36 November 14 NA December 25 NA Annual -299 0.53 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-37 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16)

ECOZONE: PRAIRIES ECOREGION: MOIST MIXED GRASSLAND ECODISTRICT(S): 776

ECODISTRICT 776 1961 - 1990 Climate Normals

Table1: Precipitation and Temperature (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE TIME SLICE Total (mm) Snowfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Mean (°C) Minimum (°C) Maximum (°C) January 19 19 1 -17.5 -22.7 -12.4 February 14 14 0 -13.3 -18.6 -8.1 March 18 17 2 -6.8 -12.1 -1.7 April 21 9 12 4.0 -2.1 10.0 May 41 2 39 11.5 4.4 18.5 June 59 0 59 16.2 9.3 23.0 July 59 0 59 18.6 11.6 25.6 August 37 0 37 17.6 10.3 24.9 September 31 2 29 11.6 5.0 18.1 October 18 8 10 5.2 -0.9 11.2 November 17 14 3 -5.4 -10.1 -0.9 December 19 19 1 -14.3 -19.2 -9.4 Annual 353 104 250 2.3 -3.7 8.3

Table 2: Potential Evapotranspiration and Associated Variables (climate normals) (Derived from CanSIS)

POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION P/PE (Thornthwaite) TIME SLICE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (mm) SURPLUS/DEFICIT(mm) Ratio (Thornthwaite) P-PE )Thornthwaite January 0 19 NA February 0 14 NA March 0 18 NA April 25 -5 0.82 May 80 -40 0.51 June 114 -55 0.52 July 131 -72 0.45 August 112 -75 0.33 September 63 -32 0.50 October 26 -8 0.69 November 0 17 NA December 0 19 NA Annual 551 -198 0.64 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid Table 3: Growing Degree Days (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

6-38 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

VARIABLE VALUE (DAYS) Growing Season Start (calendar or Julian days) 110 Growing Season End (calendar or Julian days) 291 Growing Season Length (days) 182 Growing Degree-days Above 0°C 2588 Growing Degree-days Above 5°C 1605 Growing Degree-days Above 10°C 795 Growing Degree-days Above 15°C 227 Effective Growing Degree-days 1609

Table 4: Water Deficit (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

THORNTHWAITE WATER DEFICIT (MM)PENMAN WATER DEFICIT (MM) TIME SLICE 100 150 200 250 100 150 200 250 January00000000 February00000000 March 00000000 April 112215232831 May 1016192065687173 June 31 33 34 35 85 82 80 80 July 53 51 50 49 99 96 93 92 August 65 62 59 58 102 100 97 96 September3129282757565554 October776628282727 November00000000 December 00000000 Annual 199 199 199 198 452 452 452 452

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-39 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Greenhouse Gas Only Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 (NE) Grid 6,4 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 6.1 3.10 0 6.3 -3.02 0 February 5.9 6.17 0 7.3 16.34 0 March 3.7 8.24 0 7.0 7.27 1 April 3.7 24.56 12 5.2 57.08 20 May 4.7 18.88 21 4.3 11.01 18 June 3.7 -6.92 18 3.5 -8.92 16 July 3.3 -1.75 17 3.5 -30.75 18 August 3.3 -12.00 15 3.4 19.99 15 September 3.9 -7.18 12 4.5 17.59 15 October 2.9 3.07 6 3.2 31.01 7 November 2.2 5.28 0 2.8 0.11 0 December 4.3 4.97 0 2.3 2.16 0 Annual 4.0 3.12 101 4.4 8.80 109

Table 2: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 5,3 (NW) Grid 5,4 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 7.9 3.49 0 5.2 -0.47 0 February 8.4 -0.38 0 7.1 3.48 0 March 7.8 6.20 3 6.7 18.38 0 April 7.2 42.78 31 5.4 46.57 21 May 5.8 9.31 28 4.2 17.26 17 June 3.6 9.48 16 3.7 -0.59 17 July 3.0 2.65 14 3.3 -19.78 17 August 3.1 -8.43 13 3.3 -4.17 14 September 3.6 -11.38 10 4.3 -1.98 14 October 3.0 17.07 5 3.1 22.49 6 November 2.0 8.76 0 2.8 3.33 0 December 2.6 -2.07 0 2.0 0.94 0 Annual 4.8 6.03 120 4.3 7.15 108

6-40 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change 2050s)

Grid 7,5 Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.3 11.69 0 February 4.2 3.53 0 March 4.4 3.09 0 April 3.5 33.01 11 May 2.5 13.81 6 June 3.4 3.98 16 July 3.5 -5.86 19 August 4.4 -27.27 22 September 4.7 -8.45 17 October 3.2 -7.89 7 November 3.9 -15.84 0 December 4.4 4.94 0 Annual 3.9 0.27 97

Table 4: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change 2050s)

Grid 5,5 (NW) Grid 5,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.0 24.76 0 4.1 23.52 0 February 2.6 29.61 0 3.1 27.21 0 March 2.0 25.49 0 2.9 31.56 0 April 1.4 52.65 1 1.3 52.95 0 May 1.5 12.51 1 1.6 38.32 1 June 2.4 10.69 9 2.4 4.56 9 July 3.5 -9.96 20 3.9 -1.46 22 August 3.9 -17.96 20 4.3 -23.45 22 September 4.5 -28.62 17 5.0 -35.58 19 October 3.2 37.77 8 3.4 37.83 9 November 2.9 11.80 0 2.7 12.51 0 December 5.0 23.77 0 4.8 22.38 0 Annual 3.1 7.51 76 3.3 13.35 82

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-41 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 5: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NE) Grid 6,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.8 18.97 0 4.1 21.67 0 February 2.6 31.95 0 3.0 13.36 0 March 1.2 34.98 0 2.4 30.92 0 April 1.5 33.96 2 1.6 47.20 1 May 1.5 4.84 1 1.6 32.73 0 June 2.4 7.22 9 2.5 8.59 9 July 3.6 -5.11 20 3.9 -2.78 22 August 3.9 -14.39 20 4.4 -23.12 23 September 4.5 -16.00 17 5.2 -28.36 20 October 3.4 26.17 9 3.7 22.57 10 November 2.9 11.19 0 2.8 0.72 0 December 5.0 28.63 0 5.2 24.45 0 Annual 3.0 6.26 77 3.4 9.83 86

6-42 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 6: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 (NE) Grid 6,4 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.8 14.69 0 5.9 -7.68 0 February 5.2 -2.24 0 7.2 -9.60 0 March 2.4 28.64 0 6.8 12.85 0 April 2.3 44.88 7 5.9 66.98 25 May 2.4 13.23 9 3.0 -3.94 10 June 3.0 3.55 15 3.5 -6.74 17 July 2.2 -25.60 11 3.3 -19.22 17 August 2.5 -11.03 11 3.3 -21.80 15 September 3.0 -8.51 10 3.3 12.69 9 October 1.7 24.60 3 2.8 8.12 6 November 1.5 12.51 0 1.7 7.95 0 December 5.3 16.81 0 3.8 -1.86 0 Annual 3.0 5.66 66 4.2 0.53 98

Table 7: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 5,3 (NW) Grid 5,4 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 6.7 17.93 0 4.6 -4.12 0 February 6.2 1.52 0 5.7 -7.02 0 March 5.3 16.44 0 5.0 9.16 0 April 5.3 42.37 23 5.2 41.47 22 May 4.3 6.16 20 3.3 17.35 13 June 2.9 -3.85 13 3.2 -5.25 15 July 2.2 -10.68 10 2.9 -10.83 15 August 2.2 1.00 8 2.6 -26.18 11 September 2.7 3.91 7 3.0 12.35 8 October 1.8 29.27 2 2.6 6.80 5 November 1.5 8.93 0 1.7 2.71 0 December 3.9 4.73 0 2.7 -0.84 0 Annual 3.7 6.42 84 3.6 2.06 89

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-43 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 8: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 5,5 (NW) Grid 5,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 1.0 12.28 0 1.1 33.93 0 February 2.9 23.59 0 3.1 28.90 0 March 2.0 16.67 0 3.6 14.22 0 April 2.2 19.28 6 1.7 15.73 3 May 2.0 1.20 5 2.2 -11.23 6 June 2.2 6.55 9 2.1 10.17 8 July 3.2 -11.52 18 3.6 -7.08 21 August 3.5 -0.59 18 3.8 13.22 19 September 2.7 -2.75 8 3.0 -15.44 9 October 2.4 2.49 6 2.6 -8.06 6 November 3.0 16.18 0 2.7 6.88 0 December 2.0 43.14 0 2.2 25.84 0 Annual 2.4 4.54 69 2.7 3.63 72

Table 9: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NE) Grid 6,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 1.4 5.38 0 1.5 6.09 0 February 2.8 8.61 0 3.1 29.72 0 March 1.9 19.33 0 3.4 -3.83 0 April 2.3 16.11 7 2.8 16.87 9 May 2.2 3.00 7 2.2 -10.55 6 June 2.1 -3.82 8 2.0 7.89 7 July 3.4 -4.92 19 3.6 -0.02 21 August 3.3 -14.26 16 3.4 3.66 17 September 2.8 -5.61 8 3.0 -7.68 9 October 2.5 12.20 6 3.0 -1.29 8 November 3.2 21.36 0 3.0 1.83 0 December 1.7 22.53 0 2.2 22.10 0 Annual 2.5 1.52 71 2.8 2.49 76

6-44 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Greenhouse Gas Only Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 (NE) Grid 6,4 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -11.4 19 0 -11.2 18 0 February -7.4 15 0 -6.0 16 0 March -3.1 20 0 0.2 20 1 April 7.7 26 37 9.2 32 45 May 16.2 48 102 15.8 45 98 June 19.9 55 132 19.7 54 130 July 21.9 58 148 22.1 41 149 August 20.9 33 127 21.0 45 127 September 15.5 29 75 16.1 37 78 October 8.1 18 31 8.4 23 32 November -3.2 18 0 -2.6 17 0 December -10.0 20 0 -12.0 20 0 Annual 6.3 364 652 6.7 384 660

Table 2: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,3 (NW) Grid 5,4 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -9.6 19 0 -12.3 19 0 February -4.9 14 0 -6.2 15 0 March 1.0 20 3 -0.1 22 0 April 11.2 29 56 9.4 30 46 May 17.3 44 108 15.7 47 97 June 19.8 65 130 19.9 59 131 July 21.6 61 145 21.9 48 148 August 20.7 34 125 20.9 36 127 September 15.2 28 73 15.9 31 77 October 8.2 21 31 8.3 22 32 November -3.4 18 0 -2.6 18 0 December -11.7 19 0 -12.3 19 0 Annual 7.1 374 671 6.5 378 658

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-45 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 3: CGCM1-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 (NE) Grid 6,4 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 19 NA 18 NA February 15 NA 16 NA March 20 NA 19 39.48 April -12 0.69 -13 0.72 May -53 0.47 -53 0.46 June -77 0.42 -76 0.41 July -90 0.39 -108 0.28 August -94 0.26 -83 0.35 September -46 0.39 -41 0.47 October -13 0.58 -9 0.72 November 18 NA 17 NA December 20 NA 20 NA Annual -288 0.56 -276 0.58 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

Table 4: CGCM1-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,3(NW) Grid 5,4 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 19 NA 19 NA February 14 NA 15 NA March 17 6.74 22 NA April -27 0.52 -16 0.65 May -64 0.41 -50 0.49 June -66 0.50 -73 0.45 July -84 0.42 -100 0.32 August -91 0.27 -91 0.28 September -45 0.38 -46 0.40 October -10 0.67 -10 0.68 November 18 NA 18 NA December 19 NA 19 NA Annual -297 0.56 -280 0.57 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

6-46 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 5: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,5 Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -14.2 21 0 February -9.1 15 0 March -2.4 19 0 April 7.5 27 36 May 14.0 46 86 June 19.6 61 130 July 22.1 56 150 August 22.0 27 135 September 16.3 29 80 October 8.4 16 33 November -1.5 14 0 December -9.9 20 0 Annual 6.2 354 648

Table 6: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,5 Month P-PE (mm) P/PE January 21 NA February 15 NA March 19 NA April -9 0.76 May -40 0.54 June -68 0.47 July -94 0.37 August -108 0.20 September -51 0.36 October -16 0.50 November 14 NA December 20 NA Annual -295 0.55 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-47 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 7: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,5 (NW) Grid 5,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -13.5 23 0 -13.4 23 0 February -10.7 18 0 -10.2 18 0 March -4.8 23 0 -3.9 24 0 April 5.4 31 26 5.3 31 25 May 13.0 46 81 13.1 56 81 June 18.6 65 123 18.6 62 123 July 22.1 53 151 22.5 58 153 August 21.5 30 132 21.9 28 134 September 16.1 22 80 16.6 20 82 October 8.4 24 34 8.6 24 34 November -2.5 19 0 -2.7 19 0 December -9.3 24 0 -9.5 23 0 Annual 5.4 379 627 5.6 400 633

Table 8: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NE) Grid 6,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -13.7 22 0 -13.4 23 0 February -10.7 19 0 -10.3 16 0 March -5.6 25 0 -4.4 24 0 April 5.5 27 27 5.6 30 26 May 13.0 42 81 13.1 54 80 June 18.6 63 123 18.7 64 123 July 22.2 56 151 22.5 58 153 August 21.5 32 132 22.0 29 135 September 16.1 26 80 16.8 22 83 October 8.6 22 35 8.9 22 35 November -2.5 19 0 -2.6 17 0 December -9.3 25 0 -9.1 24 0 Annual 5.3 375 628 5.7 387 637

6-48 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 9: HadCM3-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,5 (NW) Grid 5,6 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 23 NA 23 NA February 18 NA 18 NA March 23 NA 24 NA April 5 1.20 6 1.25 May -35 0.56 -25 0.69 June -58 0.53 -61 0.50 July -97 0.35 -95 0.38 August -102 0.23 -106 0.21 September -58 0.28 -62 0.25 October -10 0.72 -10 0.71 November 19 NA 19 NA December 24 NA 23 NA Annual -247 0.61 -233 0.63 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

Table 10: HadCM3-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NE) Grid 6,6 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 22 NA 23 NA February 19 NA 16 NA March 25 NA 24 NA April 1 1.03 4 1.14 May -38 0.53 -27 0.67 June -60 0.51 -59 0.52 July -95 0.37 -95 0.38 August -100 0.24 -106 0.21 September -54 0.33 -61 0.27 October -12 0.64 -14 0.61 November 19 NA 17 NA December 25 NA 24 NA Annual -253 0.60 -249 0.61 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-49 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 11: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 (NE) Grid 6,4 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -12.7 21 0 -11.6 17 0 February -8.1 14 0 -6.1 13 0 March -4.4 24 0 0.0 21 0 April 6.3 30 32 9.9 34 50 May 13.9 46 89 14.5 39 90 June 19.2 61 129 19.7 55 131 July 20.8 44 142 21.9 48 148 August 20.1 33 123 20.9 29 127 September 14.6 29 73 14.9 35 72 October 6.9 22 28 8.0 19 31 November -3.9 19 0 -3.7 18 0 December -9.0 22 0 -10.5 19 0 Annual 5.3 373 616 6.5 355 649

Table 12: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,3 (NW) Grid 5,4 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -10.8 22 0 -12.9 18 0 February -7.1 14 0 -7.6 13 0 March -1.5 21 0 -1.8 20 0 April 9.3 29 48 9.2 29 47 May 15.8 43 101 14.8 48 93 June 19.1 57 127 19.4 56 129 July 20.8 53 141 21.5 53 146 August 19.8 37 121 20.2 27 123 September 14.3 33 70 14.6 35 72 October 7.0 23 28 7.8 19 31 November -3.9 19 0 -3.7 17 0 December -10.4 20 0 -11.6 19 0 Annual 6.0 375 635 5.9 360 640

6-50 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 13: CGCM1-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 (NE) Grid 6,4 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 21 NA 17 NA February 14 NA 13 NA March 24 NA 21 NA April -3 0.92 -16 0.68 May -43 0.52 -51 0.43 June -68 0.47 -76 0.42 July -97 0.31 -100 0.32 August -90 0.27 -98 0.23 September -44 0.39 -37 0.49 October -6 0.77 -12 0.61 November 19 NA 18 NA December 22 NA 19 NA Annual -244 0.60 -295 0.55 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

Table 14: CGCM1-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,3(NW) Grid 5,4 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 22 NA 18 NA February 14 NA 13 NA March 21 NA 20 NA April -19 0.61 -18 0.62 May -58 0.43 -45 0.51 June -71 0.45 -73 0.43 July -88 0.38 -93 0.36 August -83 0.31 -95 0.22 September -38 0.46 -36 0.49 October -5 0.82 -12 0.61 November 19 NA 17 NA December 20 NA 19 NA Annual -260 0.59 -280 0.56 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-51 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 15: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,5 (NW) Grid 5,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -16.5 21 0 -16.4 25 0 February -10.4 17 0 -10.2 18 0 March -4.8 21 0 -3.2 21 0 April 6.2 24 31 5.7 24 28 May 13.5 41 85 13.7 36 86 June 18.4 63 123 18.3 65 122 July 21.8 52 149 22.2 55 152 August 21.1 37 130 21.4 42 132 September 14.3 31 71 14.6 27 72 October 7.6 18 31 7.8 16 32 November -2.4 20 0 -2.7 18 0 December -12.3 27 0 -12.1 24 0 Annual 4.7 369 620 5.0 366 623

Table 16: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NE) Grid 6,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -16.1 20 0 -16.0 20 0 February -10.5 15 0 -10.2 18 0 March -4.9 22 0 -3.4 18 0 April 6.3 24 32 6.8 24 34 May 13.7 42 87 13.7 36 86 June 18.3 57 122 18.2 64 121 July 22.0 56 150 22.2 59 151 August 20.9 32 128 21.0 38 129 September 14.4 30 71 14.6 29 72 October 7.7 20 32 8.2 17 33 November -2.2 21 0 -2.4 17 0 December -12.6 24 0 -12.1 23 0 Annual 4.8 358 622 5.1 362 627

6-52 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Ecodistrict 776

Table 17: HadCM3-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,5 (NW) Grid 5,6 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 21 NA 25 NA February 17 NA 18 NA March 21 NA 21 NA April -7 0.78 -4 0.84 May -44 0.48 -50 0.42 June -60 0.51 -57 0.53 July -96 0.35 -96 0.36 August -93 0.28 -90 0.32 September -40 0.43 -46 0.37 October -13 0.58 -16 0.51 November 20 NA 18 NA December 27 NA 24 NA Annual -251 0.59 -258 0.59 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

Table 18: HadCM3-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NE) Grid 6,6 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 20 NA 20 NA February 15 NA 18 NA March 22 NA 18 NA April -8 0.75 -10 0.70 May -45 0.48 -50 0.42 June -65 0.47 -57 0.53 July -94 0.38 -92 0.39 August -97 0.25 -90 0.30 September -42 0.42 -43 0.40 October -12 0.63 -16 0.52 November 21 NA 17 NA December 24 NA 23 NA Annual -264 0.58 -265 0.58 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-53 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23)

ECOZONE: PRAIRIES ECOREGION: ASPEN PARKLAND ECODISTRICT(S): 739

ECODISTRICT 739 1961 - 1990 Climate Normals

Table 1: Precipitation and Temperature (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE TIME SLICE Total (mm) Snowfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Mean (°C) Minimum (°C) Maximum (°C) January 23 22 1 -17.1 -22.1 -12.1 February 15 15 0 -12.6 -17.9 -7.2 March 20 19 1 -6.5 -12.1 -1.2 April 23 11 12 3.5 -2.6 9.6 May 38 2 36 11.0 3.7 18.0 June 75 0 75 15.2 8.3 21.9 July 78 0 78 17.3 10.4 24.0 August 56 0 56 16.4 9.2 23.5 September 36 2 34 10.5 3.8 17.1 October 15 6 10 4.7 -1.8 11.1 November 17 14 3 -6.0 -11.0 -1.1 December 21 21 1 -13.4 -18.2 -8.7 Annual 413 109 305 1.9 -4.2 8.0

Table 2: Potential Evapotranspiration and Associated Variables (climate normals) (Derived from CanSIS)

POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION P/PE (Thornthwaite) TIME SLICE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (mm) SURPLUS/DEFICIT(mm) Ratio (Thornthwaite) P-PE )Thornthwaite January 0 23 NA February 0 15 NA March 0 20 NA April 24 -1 0.94 May 80 -42 0.47 June 110 -35 0.68 July 124 -47 0.62 August 107 -51 0.52 September 60 -24 0.59 October 25 -10 0.61 November 0 17 NA December 0 21 NA Annual 530 -117 0.78 Climatic Classification: Humid

6-54 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Table 3: Growing Degree Days (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

VARIABLE VALUE (DAYS) Growing Season Start (calendar or Julian days) 112 Growing Season End (calendar or Julian days) 289 Growing Season Length (days) 178 Growing Degree-days Above 0°C 2403 Growing Degree-days Above 5°C 1433 Growing Degree-days Above 10°C 653 Growing Degree-days Above 15°C 130 Effective Growing Degree-days 1441

Table 4: Water Deficit (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

THORNTHWAITE WATER DEFICIT (MM)PENMAN WATER DEFICIT (MM) TIME SLICE 100 150 200 250 100 150 200 250 January00000000 February00000000 March 00000000 April -20019162023 May 9 11 14 15 56 59 62 63 June 18 17 18 18 58 56 54 54 July 30 27 26 26 63 60 58 57 August 40 35 33 32 63 60 58 57 September2220191839373635 October877724232322 November00000000 December 00000000 Annual 125 117 117 116 312 312 312 312

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-55 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Greenhouse Gas Only Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 4,3(W) Grid 5,3 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 7.6 15.70 0 7.9 3.49 0 February 8.0 0.93 0 8.4 -0.38 0 March 7.1 5.89 2 7.8 6.20 5 April 7.2 50.65 32 7.2 42.78 31 May 6.0 7.60 29 5.8 9.31 27 June 3.7 6.03 16 3.6 9.48 15 July 3.0 6.76 12 3.0 2.65 12 August 3.0 -13.17 10 3.1 -8.43 11 September 3.3 -10.07 8 3.6 -11.38 9 October 2.9 21.73 5 3.0 17.07 5 November 1.9 10.37 0 2.0 8.76 0 December 2.4 5.97 0 2.6 -2.07 0 Annual 4.7 7.42 113 4.8 6.03 116

Table 2: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 5,4 (NW) Grid 5,5 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 2.5 12.00 0 2.6 25.26 0 February 3.6 8.41 0 3.6 3.31 0 March 3.7 2.52 0 3.6 1.63 0 April 3.1 15.56 11 3.1 16.67 9 May 2.1 5.99 4 2.2 1.72 3 June 2.9 0.36 12 3.4 -12.71 14 July 3.0 -9.89 14 3.9 -7.17 20 August 3.8 -24.34 18 4.8 -6.70 23 September 3.9 1.87 13 4.5 -5.10 15 October 2.7 1.83 6 2.9 -4.85 6 November 3.6 3.31 0 3.1 -6.15 0 December 4.1 11.11 0 3.5 9.09 0 Annual 3.4 0.32 78 3.5 -0.99 91

6-56 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (NE) Grid 6,5 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 2.9 3.16 0 2.9 23.46 0 February 3.9 10.87 0 3.9 5.10 0 March 4.1 1.98 0 4.0 2.73 0 April 3.5 15.79 13 3.3 24.41 10 May 2.2 5.43 5 2.3 3.76 4 June 2.9 0.00 12 3.4 -4.40 14 July 3.0 -9.05 14 3.7 -7.53 18 August 3.9 -26.09 18 4.6 -21.15 22 September 4.0 0.00 13 4.6 1.28 16 October 2.9 1.08 7 3.0 -6.82 6 November 3.9 4.63 0 3.6 -13.39 0 December 4.4 5.88 0 4.0 6.90 0 Annual 3.6 0.00 81 3.7 -0.61 91

Table 4: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 4,5 (W) Grid 5,5 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.8 41.33 0 4.0 24.76 0 February 2.5 31.69 0 2.6 29.61 0 March 2.7 16.67 0 2.0 25.49 0 April 1.1 62.60 -1 1.4 52.65 1 May 1.6 18.75 1 1.5 12.51 0 June 2.4 5.29 8 2.4 10.69 9 July 3.4 -16.22 17 3.5 -9.96 18 August 4.2 -25.54 20 3.9 -17.96 18 September 5.0 -39.62 19 4.5 -28.62 16 October 3.3 22.50 9 3.2 37.77 9 November 3.0 5.98 0 2.9 11.80 0 December 4.8 28.96 0 5.0 23.77 0 Annual 3.2 6.96 73 3.1 7.51 71

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-57 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 5: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 4,3(W) Grid 5,3 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 5.9 15.62 0 6.7 17.93 0 February 5.1 -6.57 0 6.2 1.52 0 March 4.2 10.91 0 5.3 16.44 0 April 5.6 14.51 25 5.3 42.37 24 May 5.4 12.66 27 4.3 6.16 20 June 2.8 5.22 11 2.9 -3.85 12 July 2.2 -8.61 8 2.2 -10.68 9 August 2.0 16.04 6 2.2 1.00 7 September 2.4 -10.13 5 2.7 3.91 7 October 1.7 27.53 2 1.8 29.27 2 November 1.4 6.40 0 1.5 8.93 0 December 3.3 13.42 0 3.9 4.73 0 Annual 3.5 6.94 84 3.7 6.42 80

Table 6: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 4,5 (W) Grid 5,5 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 1.4 29.98 0 1.0 12.28 0 February 3.4 23.40 0 2.9 23.59 0 March 2.7 20.43 0 2.0 16.67 0 April 1.5 12.76 2 2.2 19.28 7 May 2.1 -9.61 5 2.0 1.20 5 June 2.3 12.38 8 2.2 6.55 8 July 3.4 -20.92 18 3.2 -11.52 16 August 4.0 0.75 19 3.5 -0.59 16 September 3.1 7.45 9 2.7 -2.75 8 October 2.3 -8.43 5 2.4 2.49 6 November 3.2 8.34 0 3.0 16.18 0 December 2.8 47.41 0 2.0 43.14 0 Annual 2.7 2.14 67 2.4 4.54 65

6-58 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Greenhouse Gas Only Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,3(W) Grid 5,3 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -9.5 26 0 -9.2 23 0 February -4.6 15 0 -4.2 15 0 March 0.6 21 2 1.3 21 5 April 10.7 34 56 10.7 33 56 May 17.0 41 109 16.8 41 107 June 18.9 79 125 18.8 82 125 July 20.3 83 137 20.3 80 137 August 19.4 48 118 19.5 51 118 September 13.8 32 67 14.1 31 69 October 7.6 19 30 7.7 18 31 November -4.1 18 0 -4.0 18 0 December -11.0 23 0 -10.8 21 0 Annual 6.6 445 643 6.7 440 646

Table 2: CGCM1-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,3(W) Grid 5,3 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 26 NA 23 NA February 15 NA 15 NA March 19 11.26 17 4.66 April -21 0.62 -23 0.59 May -68 0.38 -66 0.39 June -46 0.63 -43 0.66 July -54 0.61 -57 0.58 August -69 0.41 -67 0.43 September -35 0.48 -37 0.46 October -12 0.61 -13 0.58 November 18 NA 18 NA December 23 NA 21 NA Annual -198 0.69 -206 0.68 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-59 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,4 (NW) Grid 5,5 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -14.6 25 0 -14.5 28 0 February -9.0 16 0 -9.0 15 0 March -2.8 21 0 -3.0 21 0 April 6.6 26 35 6.6 27 34 May 13.1 40 84 13.2 39 83 June 18.1 75 122 18.6 65 124 July 20.3 70 139 21.2 72 144 August 20.2 42 125 21.2 52 130 September 14.4 36 73 15.0 34 75 October 7.4 15 31 7.6 14 31 November -2.4 17 0 -2.9 16 0 December -9.3 24 0 -9.9 23 0 Annual 5.3 414 608 5.4 409 621

Table 4: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (NE) Grid 6,5 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -14.2 23 0 -14.2 28 0 February -8.7 16 0 -8.7 15 0 March -2.4 21 0 -2.5 21 0 April 7.0 26 37 6.8 28 35 May 13.2 40 84 13.3 39 84 June 18.1 75 122 18.6 71 124 July 20.3 70 138 21.0 72 143 August 20.3 41 125 21.0 44 129 September 14.5 36 73 15.1 36 75 October 7.6 15 32 7.7 14 32 November -2.1 17 0 -2.5 14 0 December -9.0 23 0 -9.5 23 0 Annual 5.5 413 611 5.6 411 621

6-60 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Table 5: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,4 (NW) Grid 5,5 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 25 NA 28 NA February 16 NA 15 NA March 21 NA 21 NA April -8 0.76 -7 0.79 May -44 0.48 -45 0.46 June -47 0.61 -59 0.52 July -69 0.50 -72 0.50 August -82 0.34 -78 0.40 September -37 0.50 -41 0.45 October -16 0.49 -17 0.47 November 17 NA 16 NA December 24 NA 23 NA Annual -193 0.68 -212 0.66 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

Table 6: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (NE) Grid 6,5 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 23 NA 28 NA February 16 NA 15 NA March 21 NA 21 NA April -10 0.72 -6 0.82 May -44 0.47 -45 0.47 June -47 0.61 -53 0.57 July -68 0.51 -71 0.50 August -84 0.33 -85 0.34 September -38 0.49 -39 0.48 October -17 0.48 -17 0.45 November 17 NA 14 NA December 23 NA 23 NA Annual -198 0.68 -211 0.66 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-61 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Table 7: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,5 (W) Grid 5,5 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -13.3 32 0 -13.1 28 0 February -10.1 19 0 -10.0 19 0 March -3.8 24 0 -4.5 25 0 April 4.6 37 24 4.9 35 26 May 12.6 45 81 12.5 43 80 June 17.6 79 118 17.6 83 118 July 20.7 65 141 20.8 70 142 August 20.6 42 127 20.3 46 125 September 15.5 21 79 15.0 25 76 October 8.0 19 34 7.9 21 34 November -3.0 18 0 -3.1 19 0 December -8.6 28 0 -8.4 26 0 Annual 5.1 442 603 5.0 444 601

Table 8: HadCM3-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,5 (W) Grid 5,5 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 32 NA 28 NA February 19 NA 19 NA March 24 NA 25 NA April 13 1.57 9 1.36 May -35 0.56 -38 0.53 June -40 0.67 -36 0.70 July -76 0.46 -72 0.49 August -86 0.33 -80 0.37 September -57 0.27 -51 0.33 October -15 0.55 -13 0.62 November 18 NA 19 NA December 28 NA 26 NA Annual -161 0.73 -157 0.74 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

6-62 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 9: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,3(W) Grid 5,3 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -11.2 26 0 -10.4 27 0 February -7.5 14 0 -6.4 15 0 March -2.3 22 0 -1.2 24 0 April 9.1 26 49 8.8 32 48 May 16.4 43 107 15.3 40 100 June 18.0 78 121 18.1 72 122 July 19.5 71 133 19.5 69 133 August 18.4 65 113 18.6 56 114 September 12.9 32 65 13.2 37 67 October 6.4 19 27 6.5 20 27 November -4.6 18 0 -4.5 18 0 December -10.1 24 0 -9.5 22 0 Annual 5.4 442 614 5.6 440 611

Table 10: CGCM1-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,3(W) Grid 5,3 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 26 NA 27 NA February 14 NA 15 NA March 22 NA 24 NA April -23 0.53 -15 0.68 May -64 0.40 -59 0.40 June -43 0.65 -50 0.59 July -62 0.53 -64 0.52 August -48 0.57 -58 0.49 September -33 0.49 -30 0.55 October -7 0.72 -8 0.72 November 18 NA 18 NA December 24 NA 22 NA Annual -172 0.72 -171 0.72 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-63 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) Ecodistrict 739

Table 11: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,5 (W) Grid 5,5 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -15.7 29 0 -16.1 25 0 February -9.2 18 0 -9.7 18 0 March -3.8 24 0 -4.5 24 0 April 5.0 26 27 5.7 27 31 May 13.1 34 85 13.0 38 85 June 17.5 84 118 17.4 79 118 July 20.7 61 142 20.5 69 141 August 20.4 56 126 19.9 55 123 September 13.6 38 69 13.2 35 67 October 7.0 14 30 7.1 16 31 November -2.8 18 0 -3.0 19 0 December -10.6 32 0 -11.4 31 0 Annual 4.6 422 597 4.3 432 596

Table 12: HadCM3-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,5 (W) Grid 5,5 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 29 NA 25 NA February 18 NA 18 NA March 24 NA 24 NA April -1 0.97 -4 0.88 May -51 0.40 -46 0.45 June -34 0.71 -38 0.67 July -81 0.43 -72 0.49 August -70 0.44 -68 0.45 September -31 0.55 -33 0.51 October -16 0.46 -15 0.51 November 18 NA 19 NA December 32 NA 31 NA Annual -175 0.71 -164 0.73 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

6-64 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28)

ECOZONE: BOREAL PLAINS ECOREGION: BOREAL TRANSITION ECODISTRICT(S): 698, 701

ECODISTRICT 701 1961 - 1990 Climate Normals

Table 1: Precipitation and Temperature (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE TIME SLICE Total (mm) Snowfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Mean (°C) Minimum (°C) Maximum (°C) January 19 19 1 -19.5 -25.5 -13.7 February 15 15 0 -15.6 -21.9 -9.3 March 21 21 1 -8.8 -15.0 -2.7 April 24 11 13 2.6 -3.7 8.9 May 42 2 39 10.5 3.1 17.9 June 68 0 68 15.1 8.0 22.1 July 72 0 72 17.4 10.5 24.2 August 53 0 53 16.0 8.7 23.2 September 38 3 35 10.0 3.3 16.7 October 21 9 11 3.8 -2.4 9.9 November 19 18 2 -7.3 -12.1 -2.8 December 21 22 1 -16.5 -21.9 -11.3 Annual 412 121 297 0.6 -5.7 6.9

Table 2: Potential Evapotranspiration and Associated Variables (climate normals) (Derived from CanSIS)

POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION P/PE (Thornthwaite) TIME SLICE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (mm) SURPLUS/DEFICIT(mm) Ratio (Thornthwaite) P-PE )Thornthwaite January 0 19 NA February 0 15 NA March 0 21 NA April 19 5 1.25 May 78 -36 0.54 June 110 -42 0.62 July 126 -54 0.57 August 106 -52 0.50 September 58 -20 0.65 October 21 -1 0.96 November 0 19 NA December 0 21 NA Annual 518 -106 0.80 Climatic Classification: Humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-65 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Table 3: Growing Degree Days (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

VARIABLE VALUE (DAYS) Growing Season Start (calendar or Julian days) 114 Growing Season End (calendar or Julian days) 286 Growing Season Length (days) 173 Growing Degree-days Above 0°C 2315 Growing Degree-days Above 5°C 1375 Growing Degree-days Above 10°C 625 Growing Degree-days Above 15°C 123 Effective Growing Degree-days 1379

Table 4: Water Deficit (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

THORNTHWAITE WATER DEFICIT (MM)PENMAN WATER DEFICIT (MM) TIME SLICE 100 150 200 250 100 150 200 250 January00000000 February00000000 March 00000000 April 00006121517 May 5 7 111246505355 June 21 18 19 20 58 56 55 54 July 36 31 30 29 65 61 59 58 August 42 37 34 33 59 57 55 53 September1917161533323130 October000014131312 November00000000 December 00000000 Annual 123 110 110 109 281 281 281 281

6-66 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Greenhouse Gas Only Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 6.1 3.10 0 February 5.9 6.17 0 March 3.7 8.24 0 April 3.7 24.56 14 May 4.7 18.88 20 June 3.7 -6.92 16 July 3.3 -1.75 15 August 3.3 -12.00 13 September 3.9 -7.18 12 October 2.9 3.07 6 November 2.2 5.28 0 December 4.3 4.97 0 Annual 4.0 3.12 96

Table 2: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (NW) Grid 7,5 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.3 -0.99 0 3.3 11.69 0 February 4.1 14.29 0 4.2 3.53 0 March 4.2 -1.96 0 4.4 3.09 0 April 3.8 14.04 15 3.5 33.01 13 May 2.3 10.61 5 2.5 13.81 5 June 2.9 1.68 11 3.4 3.98 14 July 3.0 -12.50 14 3.5 -5.86 17 August 4.0 -40.94 18 4.4 -27.27 20 September 4.3 -10.98 14 4.7 -8.45 16 October 3.1 1.04 8 3.2 -7.89 8 November 4.2 7.08 0 3.9 -15.84 0 December 4.6 5.22 0 4.4 4.94 0 Annual 3.8 -2.12 85 3.9 0.27 92

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-67 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 8,4 (NE) Grid 8,5 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.9 5.77 0 3.9 3.85 0 February 4.1 19.79 0 4.5 0.00 0 March 3.9 -2.54 0 4.7 4.40 0 April 4.1 14.18 17 3.7 35.71 13 May 2.5 16.00 6 2.6 26.29 6 June 2.7 5.32 10 3.3 -2.94 13 July 2.9 -4.05 13 3.6 -8.97 17 August 4.1 -33.51 19 4.5 -38.51 21 September 4.4 -11.11 15 4.9 -10.14 17 October 3.3 7.27 9 3.4 -3.95 8 November 4.6 3.94 0 4.2 -16.49 0 December 5.0 13.01 0 4.7 5.75 0 Annual 4.1 1.71 87 4.2 -1.87 95

Table 4: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.4 15.32 0 3.8 18.97 0 February 2.5 19.45 0 2.6 31.95 0 March 0.5 17.23 0 1.2 34.98 0 April 1.1 21.05 1 1.5 33.96 3 May 1.6 -1.28 2 1.5 4.84 0 June 2.5 7.01 10 2.4 7.22 8 July 3.2 -1.78 16 3.6 -5.11 18 August 3.6 -7.59 16 3.9 -14.39 18 September 3.9 -1.76 13 4.5 -16.00 16 October 2.9 28.93 8 3.4 26.17 10 November 2.7 23.40 0 2.9 11.19 0 December 4.9 31.79 0 5.0 28.63 0 Annual 2.7 7.16 66 3.0 6.26 73

6-68 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 5: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.8 14.69 0 February 5.2 -2.24 0 March 2.4 28.64 0 April 2.3 44.88 8 May 2.4 13.23 8 June 3.0 3.55 14 July 2.2 -25.60 9 August 2.5 -11.03 10 September 3.0 -8.51 9 October 1.7 24.60 3 November 1.5 12.51 0 December 5.3 16.81 0 Annual 3.0 5.66 62

Table 6: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 1.3 6.53 0 1.4 5.38 0 February 2.3 16.66 0 2.8 8.61 0 March 0.7 25.90 0 1.9 19.33 0 April 1.4 15.84 3 2.3 16.11 8 May 2.1 25.92 6 2.2 3.00 6 June 2.3 -0.37 9 2.1 -3.82 7 July 3.1 8.25 16 3.4 -4.92 18 August 3.4 -17.14 15 3.3 -14.26 15 September 2.5 -2.60 7 2.8 -5.61 8 October 2.2 -1.03 5 2.5 12.20 7 November 3.1 25.35 0 3.2 21.36 0 December 1.3 24.20 0 1.7 22.53 0 Annual 2.1 6.15 61 2.5 1.52 67

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-69 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Greenhouse Gas Only Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -13.4 19 0 February -9.7 16 0 March -5.1 22 0 April 6.3 30 33 May 15.2 49 98 June 18.8 64 127 July 20.7 71 141 August 19.3 47 118 September 13.9 35 70 October 6.7 21 28 November -5.1 20 0 December -12.2 22 0 Annual 4.6 426 614

Table 2: CGCM1-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month P-PE (mm) P/PE January 19 NA February 16 NA March 22 NA April -3 0.91 May -49 0.50 June -63 0.50 July -70 0.50 August -71 0.40 September -34 0.51 October -7 0.76 November 20 NA December 22 NA Annual -188 0.69 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

6-70 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (NW) Grid 7,5 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January -16.2 19 0 -16.2 21 0 February -11.6 18 0 -11.4 16 0 March -4.6 20 0 -4.4 21 0 April 6.4 27 34 6.1 32 32 May 12.8 46 83 13.0 47 83 June 18.0 70 121 18.5 71 124 July 20.4 63 140 20.9 68 143 August 20.0 31 124 20.4 39 126 September 14.3 34 73 14.7 35 74 October 6.9 21 29 7.0 19 29 November -3.1 20 0 -3.4 16 0 December -11.9 22 0 -12.1 22 0 Annual 4.4 404 603 4.5 414 610

Table 4: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 8,4 (NE) Grid 8,5 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January -15.7 20 0 -15.6 20 0 February -11.5 18 0 -11.2 15 0 March -4.9 20 0 -4.1 22 0 April 6.7 27 36 6.3 33 33 May 13.0 48 84 13.1 53 83 June 17.8 72 120 18.4 66 123 July 20.3 69 139 21.0 65 143 August 20.1 35 124 20.5 33 126 September 14.4 34 73 14.9 34 75 October 7.1 22 30 7.2 20 30 November -2.7 20 0 -3.1 16 0 December -11.5 24 0 -11.9 22 0 Annual 4.7 419 605 4.8 405 613

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-71 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Table 5: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (NW) Grid 7,5 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 19 NA 21 NA February 18 NA 16 NA March 20 NA 21 NA April -7 0.80 0 1.01 May -36 0.56 -36 0.57 June -52 0.57 -53 0.57 July -77 0.45 -75 0.47 August -92 0.25 -87 0.31 September -39 0.47 -39 0.47 October -9 0.71 -10 0.65 November 20 NA 16 NA December 22 NA 22 NA Annual -199 0.67 -197 0.68 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

Table 6: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 8,4 (NE) Grid 8,5 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 20 NA 20 NA February 18 NA 15 NA March 20 NA 22 NA April -8 0.77 0 1.00 May -35 0.58 -31 0.63 June -48 0.60 -57 0.54 July -70 0.50 -78 0.46 August -89 0.29 -93 0.26 September -39 0.46 -41 0.46 October -8 0.73 -10 0.66 November 20 NA 16 NA December 24 NA 22 NA Annual -186 0.69 -208 0.66 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

6-72 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Table 7: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -16.1 22 0 -15.7 22 0 February -13.1 18 0 -13.0 20 0 March -8.3 24 0 -7.6 28 0 April 3.7 29 20 4.1 32 22 May 12.1 41 79 12.0 44 78 June 17.6 73 120 17.5 73 119 July 20.6 71 142 21.0 68 144 August 19.6 49 122 19.9 46 123 September 13.9 37 72 14.5 32 74 October 6.7 26 30 7.2 26 31 November -4.6 23 0 -4.4 21 0 December -11.6 28 0 -11.5 27 0 Annual 3.3 442 584 3.6 438 591

Table 8: HadCM3-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 22 NA 22 NA February 18 NA 20 NA March 24 NA 28 NA April 9 1.45 10 1.47 May -38 0.52 -34 0.56 June -47 0.61 -45 0.62 July -71 0.50 -76 0.47 August -73 0.40 -78 0.37 September -34 0.52 -42 0.43 October -3 0.90 -5 0.83 November 23 NA 21 NA December 28 NA 27 NA Annual -142 0.76 -153 0.74 Climatic Classification: Humid to Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-73 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 9: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -14.7 22 0 February -10.4 15 0 March -6.4 27 0 April 4.9 35 28 May 12.9 47 86 June 18.1 71 124 July 19.6 53 135 August 18.5 47 115 September 13.0 35 68 October 5.5 26 25 November -5.8 21 0 December -11.2 25 0 Annual 3.6 436 581

Table 10: CGCM1-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month P-PE (mm) P/PE January 22 NA February 15 NA March 27 NA April 7 1.26 May -39 0.55 June -53 0.57 July -82 0.40 August -68 0.41 September -33 0.52 October 1 1.03 November 21 NA December 25 NA Annual -145 0.75 Climatic Classification: Humid to Sub-humid

6-74 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistricts 698, 701

Table 11: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -18.2 20 0 -18.1 20 0 February -13.3 18 0 -12.8 17 0 March -8.1 26 0 -6.9 25 0 April 4.0 28 22 4.9 28 27 May 12.6 52 84 12.7 43 84 June 17.4 68 119 17.2 66 117 July 20.5 78 142 20.8 68 143 August 19.4 44 121 19.3 46 120 September 12.5 37 65 12.8 36 66 October 6.0 20 27 6.3 23 28 November -4.2 24 0 -4.1 23 0 December -15.2 26 0 -14.8 26 0 Annual 2.7 438 579 3.1 419 585

Table 12: HadCM3-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 20 NA 20 NA February 18 NA 17 NA March 26 NA 25 NA April 5 1.24 1 1.03 May -31 0.63 -41 0.51 June -51 0.57 -52 0.56 July -64 0.55 -75 0.48 August -77 0.36 -74 0.38 September -28 0.57 -30 0.54 October -7 0.76 -5 0.82 November 24 NA 23 NA December 26 NA 26 NA Annual -141 0.76 -167 0.72 Climatic Classification: Humid to Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-75 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

ECODISTRICT 698 1961 - 1990 Climate Normals

Table 1: Precipitation and Temperature Normals (CanSIS Data)

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE TIME SLICE Total (mm) Snowfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Mean (°C) Minimum (°C) Maximum (°C) January 20 20 1 -19.6 -25.3 -14.3 February 19 19 1 -15.7 -21.9 -9.7 March 24 24 1 -8.7 -14.8 -2.6 April 24 12 12 2.3 -3.9 8.4 May 42 2 40 10.5 3.3 17.8 June 67 0 67 15.3 8.2 22.3 July 72 0 72 17.5 10.6 24.3 August 57 0 57 16.1 9.0 23.2 September 44 3 41 10.2 3.8 16.6 October 27 10 17 3.7 -1.9 9.4 November 22 20 2 -7.5 -11.9 -3.2 December 24 23 0 -16.7 -21.7 -11.8 Annual 443 135 310 0.6 -5.5 6.7

Table 2: Potential Evapotranspiration and Associated Variables (Derived from CanSIS)

POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION P/PE (Thornthwaite) TIME SLICE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (mm) SURPLUS/DEFICIT(mm) Ratio (Thornthwaite) P-PE )Thornthwaite January 0 20 NA February 0 19 NA March 0 25 NA April 17 7 1.38 May 77 -35 0.55 June 111 -44 0.61 July 126 -54 0.57 August 106 -49 0.53 September 59 -15 0.74 October 21 7 1.32 November 0 22 NA December 0 24 NA Annual 518 -75 0.86 Climatic Classification: Humid

6-76 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Table 3: Growing Degree Days (CanSIS Data)

VARIABLE VALUE (DAYS) Growing Season Start (calendar or Julian days) 115 Growing Season End (calendar or Julian days) 286 Growing Season Length (days) 172 Growing Degree-days Above 0°C 2324 Growing Degree-days Above 5°C 1390 Growing Degree-days Above 10°C 641 Growing Degree-days Above 15°C 132 Effective Growing Degree-days 1403

Table 4: Water Deficit (CanSIS Data)

THORNTHWAITE WATER DEFICIT(MM)PENMAN WATER DEFICIT (MM) TIME SLICE 100 150 200 250 100 150 200 250 January00000000 February00000000 March 00000000 April 0000371113 May 534646434750 June 22 15 14 14 61 55 53 53 July 37 28 24 24 61 56 54 52 August 40 33 28 27 55 52 49 48 September1512111024232221 October00002222 November00000000 December 00000000 Annual 118 92 81 81 252 239 239 239

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-77 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Greenhouse Gas Only Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 6.1 3.10 0 February 5.9 6.17 0 March 3.7 8.24 0 April 3.7 24.56 14 May 4.7 18.88 21 June 3.7 -6.92 17 July 3.3 -1.75 15 August 3.3 -12.00 13 September 3.9 -7.18 12 October 2.9 3.07 6 November 2.2 5.28 0 December 4.3 4.97 0 Annual 4.0 3.12 97

Table 2: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (NW) Grid 7,5 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.3 -0.99 0 3.3 11.69 0 February 4.1 14.29 0 4.2 3.53 0 March 4.2 -1.96 0 4.4 3.09 0 April 3.8 14.04 15 3.5 33.01 13 May 2.3 10.61 5 2.5 13.81 5 June 2.9 1.68 11 3.4 3.98 14 July 3.0 -12.50 14 3.5 -5.86 17 August 4.0 -40.94 18 4.4 -27.27 20 September 4.3 -10.98 15 4.7 -8.45 16 October 3.1 1.04 8 3.2 -7.89 8 November 4.2 7.08 0 3.9 -15.84 0 December 4.6 5.22 0 4.4 4.94 0 Annual 3.8 -2.12 86 3.9 0.27 93

6-78 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 8,4 (NE) Grid 8,5 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.9 5.77 0 3.9 3.85 0 February 4.1 19.79 0 4.5 0.00 0 March 3.9 -2.54 0 4.7 4.40 0 April 4.1 14.18 17 3.7 35.71 14 May 2.5 16.00 6 2.6 26.29 6 June 2.7 5.32 10 3.3 -2.94 13 July 2.9 -4.05 13 3.6 -8.97 17 August 4.1 -33.51 19 4.5 -38.51 21 September 4.4 -11.11 15 4.9 -10.14 17 October 3.3 7.27 9 3.4 -3.95 9 November 4.6 3.94 0 4.2 -16.49 0 December 5.0 13.01 0 4.7 5.75 0 Annual 4.1 1.71 88 4.2 -1.87 96

Table 4: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 3.4 15.32 0 3.8 18.97 0 February 2.5 19.45 0 2.6 31.95 0 March 0.5 17.23 0 1.2 34.98 0 April 1.1 21.05 1 1.5 33.96 3 May 1.6 -1.28 2 1.5 4.84 0 June 2.5 7.01 10 2.4 7.22 8 July 3.2 -1.78 16 3.6 -5.11 19 August 3.6 -7.59 16 3.9 -14.39 18 September 3.9 -1.76 14 4.5 -16.00 16 October 2.9 28.93 8 3.4 26.17 10 November 2.7 23.40 0 2.9 11.19 0 December 4.9 31.79 0 5.0 28.63 0 Annual 2.7 7.16 67 3.0 6.26 74

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-79 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 5: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.8 14.69 0 February 5.2 -2.24 0 March 2.4 28.64 0 April 2.3 44.88 9 May 2.4 13.23 8 June 3.0 3.55 14 July 2.2 -25.60 10 August 2.5 -11.03 10 September 3.0 -8.51 10 October 1.7 24.60 3 November 1.5 12.51 0 December 5.3 16.81 0 Annual 3.0 5.66 63

Table 6: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 1.3 6.53 0 1.4 5.38 0 February 2.3 16.66 0 2.8 8.61 0 March 0.7 25.90 0 1.9 19.33 0 April 1.4 15.84 3 2.3 16.11 8 May 2.1 25.92 6 2.2 3.00 6 June 2.3 -0.37 9 2.1 -3.82 7 July 3.1 8.25 16 3.4 -4.92 18 August 3.4 -17.14 16 3.3 -14.26 15 September 2.5 -2.60 7 2.8 -5.61 8 October 2.2 -1.03 5 2.5 12.20 7 November 3.1 25.35 0 3.2 21.36 0 December 1.3 24.20 0 1.7 22.53 0 Annual 2.1 6.15 62 2.5 1.52 68

6-80 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Greenhouse Gas Only Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -13.5 21 0 February -9.8 20 0 March -5.0 27 0 April 6.0 29 31 May 15.2 50 98 June 19.0 63 128 July 20.8 71 142 August 19.4 50 119 September 14.1 41 71 October 6.6 28 27 November -5.3 23 0 December -12.4 26 0 Annual 4.6 457 615

Table 2: CGCM1-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month P-PE (mm) P/PE January 21 NA February 20 NA March 27 NA April -2 0.95 May -47 0.51 June -65 0.49 July -71 0.50 August -69 0.42 September -30 0.58 October 1 1.04 November 23 NA December 26 NA Annual -158 0.74 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-81 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Month Grid 7,4 (NW) Grid 7,5 (SW) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -16.3 20 0 -16.3 23 0 February -11.7 22 0 -11.5 20 0 March -4.5 24 0 -4.3 25 0 April 6.1 27 32 5.8 31 30 May 12.8 47 82 13.0 48 83 June 18.2 69 123 18.7 70 126 July 20.5 63 140 21.0 68 143 August 20.1 33 124 20.5 41 126 September 14.5 39 74 14.9 40 75 October 6.8 28 29 6.9 25 29 November -3.3 23 0 -3.6 18 0 December -12.1 26 0 -12.3 25 0 Annual 4.4 434 604 4.5 444 611

Table 4: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 8,4 (NE) Grid 8,5 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -15.8 22 0 -15.7 21 0 February -11.6 23 0 -11.3 19 0 March -4.8 24 0 -4.0 26 0 April 6.4 27 34 6.0 32 31 May 13.0 49 84 13.1 54 83 June 18.0 71 121 18.6 65 125 July 20.4 69 139 21.1 66 144 August 20.2 38 125 20.6 35 127 September 14.6 39 74 15.1 39 76 October 7.0 29 30 7.1 26 29 November -2.9 22 0 -3.3 18 0 December -11.7 27 0 -12.1 26 0 Annual 4.7 450 606 4.8 435 614

6-82 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Table 5: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 7,4 (NW) Grid 7,5 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 20 NA 23 NA February 22 NA 20 NA March 24 NA 25 NA April -5 0.83 2 1.05 May -35 0.57 -35 0.58 June -54 0.56 -56 0.56 July -77 0.45 -75 0.47 August -91 0.27 -85 0.33 September -35 0.53 -35 0.53 October -1 0.96 -3 0.88 November 23 NA 18 NA December 26 NA 25 NA Annual -170 0.72 -167 0.73 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

Table 6: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 8,4 (NE) Grid 8,5 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 22 NA 21 NA February 23 NA 19 NA March 24 NA 26 NA April -7 0.80 1 1.04 May -34 0.59 -30 0.64 June -50 0.59 -59 0.52 July -70 0.50 -78 0.46 August -87 0.30 -92 0.28 September -35 0.53 -37 0.52 October 0 1.00 -3 0.90 November 22 NA 18 NA December 27 NA 26 NA Annual -155 0.74 -179 0.71 Climatic Classification: Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-83 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Table 7: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -16.2 24 0 -15.8 24 0 February -13.2 23 0 -13.1 25 0 March -8.2 29 0 -7.5 33 0 April 3.4 29 18 3.8 32 20 May 12.1 42 79 12.0 44 78 June 17.8 72 121 17.7 72 120 July 20.7 71 142 21.1 68 145 August 19.7 52 122 20.0 49 124 September 14.1 43 73 14.7 37 75 October 6.6 35 29 7.1 35 31 November -4.8 27 0 -4.6 24 0 December -11.8 32 0 -11.7 31 0 Annual 3.3 475 585 3.6 471 592

Table 8: HadCM3-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 24 NA 24 NA February 23 NA 25 NA March 29 NA 33 NA April 10 1.56 12 1.58 May -37 0.53 -33 0.57 June -49 0.60 -47 0.60 July -72 0.50 -76 0.47 August -70 0.43 -75 0.39 September -30 0.59 -38 0.49 October 6 1.22 4 1.13 November 27 NA 24 NA December 32 NA 31 NA Annual -110 0.81 -121 0.80 Climatic Classification: Humid

6-84 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 9: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -14.8 23 0 February -10.5 19 0 March -6.3 32 0 April 4.6 34 26 May 12.9 48 86 June 18.3 70 125 July 19.7 54 136 August 18.6 50 116 September 13.2 40 69 October 5.4 34 24 November -6.0 24 0 December -11.4 28 0 Annual 3.6 468 581

Table 10: CGCM1-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,3 Month P-PE (mm) P/PE January 23 NA February 19 NA March 32 NA April 8 1.33 May -38 0.56 June -56 0.56 July -82 0.39 August -65 0.44 September -29 0.58 October 10 1.42 November 24 NA December 28 NA Annual -113 0.81 Climatic Classification: Humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-85 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) Ecodistrict 698

Table 11: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -18.3 22 0 -18.2 21 0 February -13.4 22 0 -12.9 21 0 March -8.0 31 0 -6.8 29 0 April 3.7 27 21 4.6 27 25 May 12.6 53 83 12.7 44 84 June 17.6 67 120 17.4 65 119 July 20.6 78 142 20.9 69 144 August 19.5 47 122 19.4 49 121 September 12.7 43 66 13.0 41 67 October 5.9 27 26 6.2 31 27 November -4.4 27 0 -4.3 26 0 December -15.4 30 0 -15.0 30 0 Annual 2.7 470 580 3.1 450 586

Table 12: HadCM3-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,4 (N) Grid 6,5 (S) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 22 NA 21 NA February 22 NA 21 NA March 31 NA 29 NA April 7 1.33 2 1.08 May -30 0.64 -40 0.52 June -53 0.56 -54 0.55 July -64 0.55 -75 0.48 August -75 0.39 -72 0.40 September -23 0.65 -26 0.62 October 1 1.04 3 1.13 November 27 NA 26 NA December 30 NA 30 NA Annual -110 0.81 -136 0.77 Climatic Classification: Humid

6-86 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Middle Sand Hills (AB-5)

ECOZONE: PRAIRIES ECOREGION: MIXED GRASSLAND ECODISTRICT(S): 815

ECODISTRICT 815 1961 - 1990 Climate Normals

Table 1: Precipitation and Temperature (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

TIME PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE SLICE Total (mm) Snowfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Mean (°C) Minimum (°C) Maximum (°C) January 15 16 1 -11.6 -17.4 -6.1 February 12 13 0 -8.7 -14.5 -3.1 March 14 12 2 -1.8 -7.8 4.0 April 21 9 12 6.0 -0.9 12.9 May 39 1 37 12.4 5.2 19.6 June 56 0 56 17.1 9.8 24.3 July 43 0 43 19.7 11.9 27.4 August 31 0 30 18.9 10.9 26.8 September 34 1 33 12.6 5.0 20.1 October 13 5 9 6.8 -0.4 14.0 November 11 11 2 -3.2 -9.1 2.6 December 16 17 1 -10.3 -15.8 -4.8 Annual 300 84 221 4.7 -2.0 11.3

Table 2: Potential Evapotranspiration and Associated Variables (climate normals) (Derived from CanSIS)

POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION P/PE (Thornthwaite) TIME SLICE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (mm) SURPLUS/DEFICIT(mm) Ratio (Thornthwaite) P-PE )Thornthwaite January 0 15 NA February 0 12 NA March 0 14 NA April 34 -13 0.63 May 82 -44 0.47 June 117 -61 0.48 July 136 -93 0.31 August 118 -87 0.26 September 65 -31 0.52 October 31 -18 0.41 November 0 11 NA December 0 16 NA Annual 583 -283 0.51 Climatic Classification: Dry Sub-humid

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 6-87 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) Ecodistrict 815

Table 3: Growing Degree Days (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

VARIABLE VALUE (DAYS) Growing Season Start (calendar or Julian days) 103 Growing Season End (calendar or Julian days) 296 Growing Season Length (days) 194 Growing Degree-days Above 0°C 2870 Growing Degree-days Above 5°C 1816 Growing Degree-days Above 10°C 943 Growing Degree-days Above 15°C 327 Effective Growing Degree-days 1802

Table 4: Water Deficit (climate normals) (CanSIS Data)

THORNTHWAITE WATER DEFICIT (MM)PENMAN WATER DEFICIT (MM) TIME SLICE 100 150 200 250 100 150 200 250 January00000000 February00000000 March 00001222 April 4 6 8 8 52576163 May 21252728989899100 June 43 44 45 45 112 110 109 109 July 77 74 73 73 142 140 138 137 August 80 77 75 73 132 131 130 129 September3131302970696969 October1717161649484848 November00000000 December 0 0 0 0 0000 Annual 274 274 274 273 656 656 656 656

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Greenhouse Gas Only Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 4,4(W) Grid 5,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.9 1.88 0 5.2 -0.47 0 February 7.1 -3.04 0 7.1 3.48 0 March 6.8 25.92 17 6.7 18.38 17 April 6.8 39.14 28 5.4 46.57 20 May 4.2 2.09 17 4.2 17.26 18 June 3.8 -9.42 19 3.7 -0.59 18 July 3.2 -14.65 18 3.3 -19.78 19 August 3.0 -13.97 14 3.3 -4.17 16 September 3.7 0.40 11 4.3 -1.98 14 October 3.0 10.00 5 3.1 22.49 5 November 2.7 12.50 0 2.8 3.33 0 December 1.9 4.41 0 2.0 0.94 0 Annual 4.2 4.28 129 4.3 7.15 127

Table 2: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 5,5 (NW) Grid 5,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 2.6 25.26 0 3.1 13.10 0 February 3.6 3.31 0 3.6 -1.74 0 March 3.6 1.63 5 3.4 -2.60 4 April 3.1 16.67 8 3.0 11.24 6 May 2.2 1.72 4 2.4 -5.83 4 June 3.4 -12.71 17 3.9 -13.31 20 July 3.9 -7.17 24 4.9 -22.56 32 August 4.8 -6.70 28 5.8 -21.19 35 September 4.5 -5.10 16 5.3 -29.35 20 October 2.9 -4.85 5 3.2 -6.90 5 November 3.1 -6.15 0 2.8 -8.47 0 December 3.5 9.09 0 2.9 3.09 0 Annual 3.5 -0.99 107 3.8 -6.56 125

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Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NE) Grid 6,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 2.9 23.46 0 3.1 12.96 0 February 3.9 5.10 0 3.9 -6.77 0 March 4.0 2.73 7 3.6 -0.76 5 April 3.3 24.41 9 3.2 19.87 7 May 2.3 3.76 5 2.5 -4.59 5 June 3.4 -4.40 17 4.1 -24.41 22 July 3.7 -7.53 22 4.6 -0.53 29 August 4.6 -21.15 26 5.1 0.00 29 September 4.6 1.28 17 5.1 -25.00 19 October 3.0 -6.82 6 3.3 -12.90 6 November 3.6 -13.39 1 3.1 -15.22 0 December 4.0 6.90 0 3.2 -2.68 0 Annual 3.7 -0.61 109 3.9 -5.53 122

Table 4: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 4,6 (W) Grid 5,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.3 38.95 0 4.1 23.52 0 February 3.7 44.59 0 3.1 27.21 0 March 2.0 27.57 0 2.9 31.56 3 April 1.1 45.73 -2 1.3 52.95 -1 May 1.4 36.11 0 1.6 38.32 1 June 2.1 1.42 8 2.4 4.56 10 July 3.7 8.35 23 3.9 -1.46 25 August 4.5 -25.55 26 4.3 -23.45 24 September 5.2 -37.47 22 5.0 -35.58 20 October 3.3 30.25 8 3.4 37.83 8 November 3.0 19.68 0 2.7 12.51 0 December 4.5 23.26 0 4.8 22.38 0 Annual 3.2 15.07 85 3.3 13.35 90

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Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Model-Simulated Change, 2050s

Table 5: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 4,4(W) Grid 5,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 4.3 -8.96 0 4.6 -4.12 0 February 4.9 -6.00 0 5.7 -7.02 0 March 5.2 3.44 12 5.0 9.16 11 April 5.6 13.75 24 5.2 41.47 18 May 3.7 17.76 16 3.3 17.35 2 June 2.8 -13.15 13 3.2 -5.25 -2 July 2.7 -2.16 15 2.9 -10.83 -3 August 2.2 -19.09 9 2.6 -26.18 1 September 2.5 1.73 6 3.0 12.35 7 October 2.4 25.50 4 2.6 6.80 7 November 1.6 11.58 0 1.7 2.71 0 December 2.1 11.31 0 2.7 -0.84 0 Annual 3.3 2.26 99 3.6 2.06 41

Table 6: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (change, 2050s)

Grid 4,6 (W) Grid 5,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (%) PE (mm) January 1.7 48.93 0 1.1 33.93 0 February 3.9 19.53 0 3.1 28.90 0 March 2.7 25.20 3 3.6 14.22 6 April 1.5 -0.94 1 1.7 15.73 2 May 2.4 -6.90 8 2.2 -11.23 7 June 2.2 16.58 9 2.1 10.17 9 July 3.6 -9.25 22 3.6 -7.08 23 August 4.1 12.01 23 3.8 13.22 21 September 3.3 -23.77 11 3.0 -15.44 10 October 2.4 -9.57 5 2.6 -8.06 6 November 2.9 6.12 0 2.7 6.88 0 December 2.7 16.73 0 2.2 25.84 0 Annual 2.8 3.05 82 2.7 3.63 82

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Greenhouse Gas Only Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 1: CGCM1-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,4(W) Grid 5,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -6.7 15 0 -6.4 15 0 February -1.6 11 0 -1.6 12 0 March 5.0 18 17 4.9 17 17 April 12.8 30 62 11.4 31 54 May 16.6 39 100 16.6 45 100 June 20.9 51 136 20.8 56 136 July 22.9 36 154 23.0 34 155 August 21.9 26 131 22.2 29 134 September 16.3 34 76 16.9 34 80 October 9.8 14 35 9.9 15 36 November -0.5 13 0 -0.4 12 0 December -8.4 17 0 -8.3 16 0 Annual 9.1 317 712 9.1 325 710

Table 2: CGCM1-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,4(W) Grid 5,4 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 15 NA 15 NA February 11 NA 12 NA March 1 1.05 0 1.01 April -33 0.48 -23 0.58 May -60 0.39 -55 0.45 June -85 0.37 -80 0.41 July -117 0.24 -120 0.22 August -105 0.20 -104 0.22 September -42 0.45 -46 0.42 October -22 0.39 -21 0.43 November 13 NA 12 NA December 17 NA 16 NA Annual -395 0.44 -384 0.46 Climatic Classification: Semi-arid

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Table 3: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,5 (NW) Grid 5,6 (SW) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -9.0 18 0 -8.5 17 0 February -5.1 12 0 -5.1 11 0 March 1.8 14 5 1.6 14 4 April 9.1 25 42 9.0 24 40 May 14.6 39 86 14.8 36 86 June 20.5 49 134 21.0 49 137 July 23.6 40 160 24.6 33 168 August 23.7 28 146 24.7 24 153 September 17.1 32 82 17.9 24 85 October 9.7 12 36 10.0 12 36 November -0.1 11 0 -0.4 10 0 December -6.8 18 0 -7.4 17 0 Annual 8.2 297 690 8.5 280 708

Table 4: ECHAM4-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NE) Grid 6,6 (SE) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -8.7 18 0 -8.5 16 0 February -4.8 12 0 -4.8 11 0 March 2.2 15 7 1.8 14 5 April 9.3 26 43 9.2 26 41 May 14.7 40 87 14.9 37 87 June 20.5 54 134 21.2 42 139 July 23.4 39 158 24.3 42 165 August 23.5 24 144 24.0 31 147 September 17.2 35 82 17.7 26 84 October 9.8 12 36 10.1 11 37 November 0.4 10 1 -0.1 10 0 December -6.4 17 0 -7.1 16 0 Annual 8.4 298 692 8.6 283 705

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Table 5: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 5,5 (NW) Grid 5,6 (SW) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 18 NA 17 NA February 12 NA 11 NA March 9 2.83 10 3.46 April -17 0.59 -16 0.60 May -47 0.45 -50 0.42 June -85 0.37 -88 0.36 July -120 0.25 -135 0.20 August -117 0.20 -129 0.16 September -49 0.40 -61 0.28 October -24 0.33 -24 0.32 November 11 NA 10 NA December 18 NA 17 NA Annual -393 0.43 -428 0.40 Climatic Classification: Semi-arid

Table 6: ECHAM4-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 6,5 (NE) Grid 6,6 (SE) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 18 NA 16 NA February 12 NA 11 NA March 8 2.24 9 3.00 April -16 0.62 -16 0.62 May -47 0.46 -50 0.42 June -80 0.40 -96 0.31 July -119 0.25 -123 0.26 August -120 0.17 -117 0.21 September -48 0.42 -59 0.30 October -25 0.32 -26 0.30 November 9 16.31 10 NA December 17 NA 16 NA Annual -394 0.43 -422 0.40 Climatic Classification: Semi-arid

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Table 7: HadCM3-GG1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,6 (W) Grid 5,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -7.3 20 0 -7.5 18 0 February -5.0 17 0 -5.6 15 0 March 0.2 18 0 1.1 19 3 April 7.1 31 32 7.3 33 33 May 13.8 52 82 14.0 53 83 June 19.2 57 125 19.5 59 127 July 23.4 46 159 23.6 42 161 August 23.4 23 144 23.2 23 142 September 17.8 21 87 17.6 22 86 October 10.1 16 39 10.2 17 39 November -0.2 14 0 -0.5 13 0 December -5.8 20 0 -5.5 20 0 Annual 7.9 345 668 8.0 340 673

Table 8: HadCM3-GG1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,6 (W) Grid 5,6 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 20 NA 18 NA February 17 NA 15 NA March 18 45.29 16 6.23 April -1 0.97 0 0.99 May -30 0.64 -30 0.64 June -68 0.46 -68 0.46 July -113 0.29 -118 0.26 August -121 0.16 -119 0.16 September -66 0.25 -64 0.26 October -22 0.42 -22 0.44 November 14 NA 13 NA December 20 NA 20 NA Annual -323 0.52 -333 0.50 Climatic Classification: Semi-arid to Dry Sub-humid

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Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Future Model-Simulated Climate, 2050s (sum of Normals and Change Tables)

Table 9: CGCM1-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,4(W) Grid 5,4 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -7.3 13 0 -7.0 14 0 February -3.8 11 0 -3.0 11 0 March 3.4 15 12 3.2 16 11 April 11.6 24 58 11.2 30 51 May 16.1 45 99 15.7 45 85 June 19.9 49 130 20.3 53 115 July 22.4 42 151 22.6 38 133 August 21.1 25 127 21.5 23 119 September 15.1 35 71 15.6 38 73 October 9.2 16 35 9.4 13 38 November -1.6 13 0 -1.5 12 0 December -8.2 18 0 -7.6 16 0 Annual 8.0 307 682 8.3 306 624

Table 10: CGCM1-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,4(W) Grid 5,4 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 13 NA 14 NA February 11 NA 11 NA March 3 1.24 5 1.42 April -33 0.42 -21 0.59 May -53 0.46 -39 0.53 June -82 0.37 -62 0.46 July -109 0.28 -95 0.29 August -102 0.19 -96 0.19 September -37 0.49 -34 0.53 October -19 0.45 -24 0.35 November 13 NA 12 NA December 18 NA 16 NA Annual -376 0.45 -318 0.49 Climatic Classification: Semi-arid

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Table 11: HadCM3-GA1 Temperature, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,6 (W) Grid 5,6 (E) Month Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) Temp (°C) Precip (mm) PE (mm) January -9.9 22 0 -10.5 20 0 February -4.8 14 0 -5.6 15 0 March 0.9 18 3 1.8 16 6 April 7.5 21 35 7.7 25 36 May 14.8 36 90 14.6 34 89 June 19.3 65 126 19.2 62 126 July 23.3 39 158 23.3 40 159 August 23.0 34 141 22.7 35 139 September 15.9 26 77 15.6 29 75 October 9.2 11 35 9.4 11 36 November -0.3 12 0 -0.5 12 0 December -7.6 19 0 -8.1 20 0 Annual 7.5 309 665 7.4 311 665

Table 12: HadCM3-GA1 Water Surplus/Deficit and P/PE Ratios (future climate, 2050s)

Grid 4,6 (W) Grid 5,6 (E) Month P-PE (mm) P/PE P-PE (mm) P/PE January 22 NA 20 NA February 14 NA 15 NA March 15 7.11 10 2.80 April -14 0.60 -11 0.68 May -54 0.40 -55 0.38 June -61 0.52 -64 0.49 July -120 0.24 -119 0.25 August -107 0.24 -104 0.25 September -50 0.34 -46 0.39 October -24 0.32 -25 0.32 November 12 NA 12 NA December 19 NA 20 NA Annual -356 0.46 -354 0.47 Climatic Classification: Semi-arid

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APPENDIX 7

Annual and Seasonal Climatic Summaries

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Appendix 7 Annual and Seasonal Climatic Summaries

Appendix 5 presents detailed monthly and annual data for climate normals, predicted changes, and future climates. The following tables provide a summary of the annual and seasonal future climates for precipitation, temperature, precipitation surplus/deficit, and P:PE for CGCM1-GG1, CGCM1- GA1, ECHAM4-GG1, HadCM3-GG1, and HadCM3-GA1.

All data are grouped by model, starting with CGCM1 then ECHAM4 and finally HadCM3. For each model, data are presented in the following order:

2020s Annual Precipitation and Temperature 2050s Annual Precipitation and Temperature 2050s Annual Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE 2050s Winter Precipitation and Temperature 2050s Winter Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE 2050s Spring Precipitation and Temperature 2050s Spring Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE 2050s Summer Precipitation and Temperature 2050s Summer Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE 2050s Fall Precipitation and Temperature 2050s Fall Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE 2080s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

The annual data are the same as those presented in the 2050s Future Climates tables in Appendix 5. Winter 2050s values were calculated by summing the December, January and February 2050s Future Climates values from in Appendix 5. Likewise, spring values are the sum of 2050s March, April and May, summer values the sum of 2050s June, July and August, and fall values the sum of 2050s September, October and November.

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Table 1: CGCM1 2020s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,4 482 2.4 477 480 5.3 5.2 8,4 473 484 5.3 5.0 758 7,4 493 2.4 487 491 5.3 5.2 8,4 484 495 5.3 5.0 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,4 329 3.9 342 340 6.3 5.8 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,3 353 2.3 364 370 4.8 4.3 Hills (SK-15 and 16) 5,4 367 364 4.7 4.2 6,3 356 379 4.4 4.0 6,4 364 352 4.7 4.8 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,3 413 1.9 434 437 4.2 3.7 (SK-23) 5,3 426 433 4.4 3.9 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 6,3 412 0.6 415 442 2.7 2.3 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 443 0.6 446 475 2.7 2.3 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,4 300 4.7 305 310 7.1 6.4 5,4 312 310 7.1 6.6

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Table 2: ECHAM4 2020s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GG1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 9,5 482 2.4 454 5.6 9,6 446 5.5 10,5 474 5.6 10,6 465 5.7 758 9,5 493 2.4 465 5.6 9,6 456 5.5 10,5 484 5.6 10,6 476 5.7 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 329 3.9 304 6.5 6,6 298 6.5 7,5 298 6.7 7,6 295 6.7 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 7,5 353 2.3 319 5.1 Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 413 1.9 408 4.2 (SK-23) 5,5 385 4.3 6,4 399 4.5 6,5 382 4.5 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 7,4 412 0.6 384 3.3 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 7,5 373 3.4 8,4 397 3.5 8,5 375 3.6 698 7,4 443 0.6 413 3.3 7,5 401 3.4 8,4 426 3.5 8,5 404 3.6 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 5,5 300 4.7 280 7.1 5,6 271 7.2 6,5 277 7.3 6,6 271 7.3

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Table 3: HadCM3 2020s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,6 482 2.4 515 489 4.2 3.7 8,6 518 485 4.2 3.8 758 7,6 493 2.4 527 500 4.2 3.7 8,6 530 496 4.2 3.8 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,6 329 3.9 360 334 5.7 5.1 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,5 353 2.3 363 366 4.2 3.4 Hills (SK-15 and 16) 5,6 386 358 4.1 3.5 6,5 360 368 4.2 3.4 6,6 380 364 4.1 3.6 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,5 413 1.9 415 402 3.9 3.2 (SK-23) 5,5 425 428 3.8 3.0 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 6,4 412 0.6 419 443 2.4 1.6 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 6,5 420 429 2.5 1.7 698 6,4 443 0.6 451 476 2.4 1.6 6,5 451 461 2.5 1.7 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,6 300 4.7 312 295 6.6 6.0 5,6 328 305 6.5 5.9

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Table 4: CGCM1 2050s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

Dune Area 1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Normals (mm) (°C) Name Eco-district Grid Precip Temp GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills 757 7,4 482 2.4 504 484 7.2 6.8 (MB-1) (+22) (+2) (+4.8) (+4.4) 8,4 507 489 7.5 6.6 (+25) (+7) (+5.1) (+4.2) 758 7,4 493 2.4 507 495 7.4 6.8 (+14) (+2) (+5.0) (+4.4) 8,4 509 500 7.7 6.6 (+16) (+7) (+5.3) (+4.2) Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,4 329 3.9 352 335 8.3 7.5 (+23) (+6) (+4.4) (+3.6) Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,3 353 2.3 374 375 7.1 6.0 Hills (SK-15 and 16) (+21) (+22) (+4.8) (+3.7) 5,4 378 360 6.5 5.9 (+25) (+7) (4.2) (+3.6) 6,3 364 373 6.3 5.3 (+11) (+20) (+4.0) (+3.0) 6,4 384 355 6.7 6.5 (+31) (+2) (+4.4) (+4.2) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,3 413 1.9 445 442 6.6 5.4 (SK-23) (+32) (+29) (+4.7) (+3.5) 5,3 440 440 6.7 5.6 (+27) (+27) (+4.8) (+3.7) Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 6,3 412 0.6 426 436 4.6 3.6 Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) (+24) (+24) (+4.0) (+3.0) 698 6,3 443 0.6 457 468 4.6 3.6 (+14) (+25) (+4.0) (+3.0) Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,4 300 4.7 317 307 9.1 8.0 (+17) (+7) (+4.4) (3.3) 5,4 325 306 9.1 8.3 (+25) (+6) (+4.4) (+3.6)

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Table 5: CGCM1 2050s Annual Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

Precip 1961-1990 2050s Climatic Dune Area Surplus/Deficit P:PE Ratios 1961-1990 Normals Classification* (P-PE ), mm Climatic Classification* Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Brandon Sand 757 7,4 -73 0.87 -175 -174 0.74 0.74 Humid Sub-humid Sub-humid Hills (MB-1) (-102) (-101) (-0.13) (-0.13) 8,4 -178 -167 0.74 0.75 Sub-humid Sub-humid (-105) (-94) (-0.13) (-0.12) to Humid 758 7,4 -66 0.88 -177 -167 0.74 0.75 Humid Sub-humid Sub-humid (-111) (-101) (-0.14) (-0.13) to Humid 8,4 -180 -160 0.74 0.76 Sub-humid Humid (-114) (-94) (-0.14) (-0.12) Great Sand 819 5,4 -236 0.58 -331 -324 0.52 0.51 Dry Sub-humid Dry Sub- Dry Sub- Hills (SK-7) (-95) (-88) (-0.06) (-0.07) humid humid Dundurn/ 776 5,3 -198 0.64 -297 -260 0.56 0.59 Dry Sub-humid Dry Sub- Dry Sub- Pike Lake (-99) (-62) (-0.08) (-0.05) humid humid Sand Hills 5,4 -280 -280 0.57 0.56 Dry Sub- Dry Sub- (SK-15 and (-82) (-82) (-0.07) (-0.08) humid humid 16) 6,3 -288 -244 0.56 0.60 Dry Sub- Dry Sub- (-90) (-46) (-0.08) (-0.04) humid humid 6,4 -276 -295 0.58 0.55 Dry Sub- Dry Sub- (-78) (-97) (-0.06) (-0.09) humid humid Manito Lake 739 4,3 -117 0.78 -198 -172 0.69 0.72 Humid Sub-humid Sub-humid Sand Hills (-81) (-55) (-0.09) (-0.06) (SK-23) 5,3 -206 -171 0.68 0.72 Sub-humid Sub-humid (-89) (-54) (-0.10) (-0.06) Nisbet/Fort à 701 6,3 -106 0.80 -188 -145 0.69 0.75 Humid Sub-humid Sub-humid la Corne Sand (-82) (-39) (-0.11) (-0.05) to Humid Hills (SK-27 698 6,3 -75 0.86 -158 -113 0.74 0.81 Humid Sub-humid Humid and 28) (-83) (-38) (-0.12) (-0.05) Middle Sand 815 4,4 -283 0.51 -395 -376 0.44 0.45 Dry Sub-humid Semi-arid Semi-arid Hills (AB-5) (-112) (-93) (-0.07) (-0.06) 5,4 -384 -318 0.46 0.49 Semi-arid Semi-arid (-101) (-35) (-0.05) (-0.02) * where a P:PE ratio of 0.2-0.5 = Semi-arid, 0.5-0.65 = Dry Sub-humid, 0.65-0.75 = Sub-humid, and 0.75-1.00 = Humid

7-8 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 6: CGCM1 2050s Winter Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills 757 7,4 61 -15.5 63 59 -9.4 -9.4 (MB-1) 8,4 60 62 -8.8 -9.4 758 7,4 63 -15.3 65 61 -9.2 -9.2 8,4 62 64 -8.6 -9.2 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,4 51 -11.1 52 49 -6.4 -6.8 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,3 52 -15.0 52 56 -8.7 -9.4 Hills (SK-15 and 16) 5,4 52 50 -10.3 -10.7 6,3 54 58 -9.6 -9.9 6,4 54 49 -9.7 -9.4 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,3 59 -14.4 64 64 -8.4 -9.6 (SK-23) 5,3 59 64 -8.1 -8.8 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 6,3 56 -17.2 58 61 -11.8 -12.1 Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 64 -17.3 67 70 -11.9 -12.2 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,4 42 -10.2 43 42 -5.6 -6.4 5,4 43 42 -5.4 -5.8

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-9 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 7: CGCM1 2050s Winter Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit Dune Area P:PE Ratios Normals (P-PE) mm Grid Name Eco-district P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell Brandon Sand 757 7,4 61 NA 63 59 NA NA Hills (MB-1) 8,4 60 62 NA NA 758 7,4 63 NA 65 61 NA NA 8,4 62 64 NA NA Great Sand Hills 819 5,4 51 NA 52 49 NA NA (SK-7) Dundurn/Pike 776 5,3 52 NA 52 56 NA NA Lake Sand Hills 5,4 52 50 NA NA (SK-15 and 16) 6,3 54 58 NA NA 6,4 54 49 NA NA Manito Lake 739 4,3 59 NA 64 64 NA NA Sand Hills (SK- 23) 5,3 59 64 NA NA Nisbet/Fort à la 701 6,3 56 NA 58 61 NA NA Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 64 NA 67 70 NA NA Middle Sand Hills 815 4,4 42 NA 43 42 NA NA (AB-5) 5,4 43 41 NA NA

7-10 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 8: CGCM1 2050s Spring Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills 757 7,4 115 2.8 134 141 9.1 8.1 (MB-1) 8,4 144 138 9.5 7.7 758 7,4 113 3.0 132 139 9.3 8.3 8,4 141 136 9.7 7.8 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,4 81 4.5 102 100 10.0 9.1 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,3 79 2.9 93 94 9.8 7.9 Hills (SK-15 and 16) 5,4 99 97 8.3 7.4 6,3 94 99 6.9 5.3 6,4 97 94 8.4 8.1 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,3 81 2.7 97 91 9.4 7.8 (SK-23) 5,3 95 96 9.6 7.7 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 6,3 86 1.4 102 109 5.5 3.8 Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 91 1.4 106 114 5.4 3.7 Middle Sand Hills 815 4,4 74 5.5 87 84 11.4 10.4 (AB-5) 5,4 93 91 11.0 10.1

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-11 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 9: CGCM1 2050s Spring Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit Dune Area P:PE Ratios Normals (P-PE ) mm Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Brandon Sand Hills 757 7,4 13 1.12 -16 5 0.90 1.04 (MB-1) 8,4 -11 2 0.93 1.01 758 7,4 9 1.09 -20 2 0.87 1.01 8,4 -15 -2 0.90 0.98 Great Sand Hills 819 5,4 -29 0.74 -57 -51 0.64 0.66 (SK-7) Dundurn/Pike Lake 776 5,3 -26 0.75 -74 -55 0.56 0.63 Sand Hills (SK-15 5,4 -44 -43 0.69 0.69 and 16) 6,3 -45 -22 0.67 0.82 6,4 -47 -46 0.68 0.67 Manito Lake Sand 739 4,3 -23 0.78 -70 -65 0.58 0.58 Hills (SK-23) 5,3 -72 -51 0.57 0.65 Nisbet/Fort à la 701 6,3 -11 0.89 -29 -5 0.78 0.96 Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 -4 0.96 -22 2 0.83 1.02 Middle Sand Hills 815 4,4 -42 0.64 -92 -84 0.49 0.5 (AB-5) 5,4 -77 -56 0.55 0.62

7-12 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 10: CGCM1 2050s Summer Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,4 217 17.8 204 176 21.6 21.4 8,4 212 187 21.7 21.2 758 7,4 216 18.0 203 175 21.8 21.6 8,4 211 186 21.9 21.4 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,4 139 17.8 127 122 21.3 20.8 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,3 155 17.5 159 147 20.7 19.9 Hills (SK-15 and 16) 5,4 142 136 20.9 20.4 6,3 146 138 20.9 20.1 6,4 139 132 20.9 20.8 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,3 208 16.3 210 214 19.6 18.6 (SK-23) 5,3 212 197 19.5 18.7 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 6,3 194 16.2 181 172 19.6 18.8 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 196 16.3 183 174 19.8 18.9 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,4 129 18.6 113 115 21.9 21.1 5,4 119 114 22.0 21.5

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-13 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 11: CGCM1 2050s Summer Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit Dune Area P:PE Ratios Normals (P-PE ) mm Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Brandon Sand 757 7,4 -145 0.60 -215 -240 0.49 0.42 Hills (MB-1) 8,4 -208 -227 0.50 0.45 758 7,4 -149 0.59 -219 -244 0.48 0.42 8,4 -213 -231 0.50 0.45 Great Sand Hills 819 5,4 -222 0.39 -283 -280 0.31 0.30 (SK-7) Dundurn/Pike 776 5,3 -202 0.44 -240 -241 0.40 0.38 Lake Sand Hills 5,4 -264 -261 0.35 0.34 (SK-15 and 16) 6,3 -261 -256 0.36 0.35 6,4 -267 -274 0.64 0.33 Manito Lake 739 4,3 -133 0.61 -169 -153 0.55 0.58 Sand Hills (SK-23) 5,3 -167 -172 0.56 0.53 Nisbet/Fort à la 701 6,3 -148 0.57 -205 -203 0.47 0.46 Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 -148 0.57 -205 -203 0.47 0.46 Middle Sand 815 4,4 -242 0.35 -308 -293 0.27 0.28 Hills (AB-5) 5,4 -304 -253 0.28 0.31

7-14 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 12: CGCM1 2050s Fall Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,4 94 4.1 98 106 7.7 6.8 8,4 89 101 7.7 6.7 758 7,4 97 4.1 101 110 7.7 6.8 8,4 92 105 7.7 6.7 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,4 57 4.8 60 62 8.2 7.3 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills 776 5,3 66 3.8 67 74 6.7 5.8 (SK-15 and 16) 5,4 70 72 7.2 6.2 6,3 65 70 6.8 5.9 6,4 77 73 7.3 6.4 Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) 739 4,3 67 3.1 69 69 5.8 4.9 5,3 67 75 5.9 5.0 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 6,3 78 2.2 76 82 5.2 4.3 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 93 2.1 91 98 5.1 4.2 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,4 58 5.4 61 63 8.5 7.6 5,4 61 63 8.8 7.8

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-15 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 13: CGCM1 2050s Fall Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit Dune Area P:PE Ratios Normals (P-PE ) mm Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Brandon Sand 757 7,4 4 1.04 -14 0 0.87 1.00 Hills (MB-1) 8,4 -21 -5 0.81 0.96 758 7,4 8 1.09 -10 4 0.91 1.04 8,4 -17 0 0.84 1.00 Great Sand Hills 819 5,4 -37 0.61 -53 -45 0.53 0.58 (SK-7) Dundurn/Pike 776 5,3 -23 0.74 -37 -24 0.65 0.75 Lake Sand Hills 5,4 -39 -31 0.64 0.70 (SK-15 and 16) 6,3 -42 -32 0.61 0.69 6,4 -33 -31 0.70 0.70 Manito Lake 739 4,3 -18 0.79 -29 -23 0.71 0.75 Sand Hills (SK-23) 5,3 -32 -19 0.68 0.79 Nisbet/Fort à la 701 6,3 -2 0.97 -21 -11 0.78 0.89 Corne Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 13 1.16 -6 6 0.94 1.06 Middle Sand 815 4,4 -38 0.60 -51 -43 0.54 0.59 Hills (AB-5) 5,4 -55 -47 0.52 0.57

7-16 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 14: ECHAM4 2050s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GG1 (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 9,5 482 2.4 487 6.7 (+5) (+4.3) 9,6 477 6.8 (-5) (+4.4) 10,5 488 6.8 (+6) (+4.4) 10,6 484 7.0 (+2) (+4.6) 758 9,5 493 2.4 497 6.7 (+4) (+4.3) 9,6 488 6.8 (-5) (+4.4) 10,5 499 6.8 (+6) (+4.4) 10,6 494 7.0 (+1) (+4.6) Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 329 3.9 327 7.6 (-2) (+3.7) 6,6 311 7.8 (-18) (+3.9) 7,5 330 7.8 (+1) (+3.9) 7,6 312 7.9 (-17) (+4.0) Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 7,5 353 2.3 354 6.2 Hills (SK-15 and 16) (+1) (+3.9) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 413 1.9 414 5.3 (SK-23) (+1) (+3.4) 5,5 409 5.4 (-4) (+3.5) 6,4 413 5.5 (0) (+3.6) 6,5 411 5.6 (-2) (+3.7)

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-17 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GG1 (mm) (°C) Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 7,4 412 0.6 404 4.4 Hills (SK-27 and 28) (-8) (+3.8) 7,5 414 4.5 (+2) (+3.9) 8,4 419 4.7 (+7) (+4.1) 8,5 405 4.8 (+7) (+4.2) 698 7,4 443 0.6 434 4.4 (-9) (+3.8) 7,5 444 4.5 (+1) (+3.9) 8,4 450 4.7 (+7) (+4.1) 8,5 435 4.8 (-8) (+4.2) Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 5,5 300 4.7 297 8.2 (-3) (+3.5) 5,6 280 8.5 (-20) (+3.8) 6,5 298 8.4 (-2) (+3.7) 6,6 283 8.6 (-17) (+3.9)

7-18 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 15: ECHAM4 2050s Annual Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

Precip 1961-1990 P:PE 2050s Climatic Dune Area Surplus/Deficit 1961-1990 Normals Ratios Classification* (P-PE ) mm Climatic Classification* Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GG1 GG1 Brandon 757 9,5 -73 0.87 -173 0.74 Humid Sub-humid Sand Hills (-100) (-0.13) (MB-1) 9,6 -193 0.71 Sub-humid (-120) (-0.16) 10,5 -172 0.74 Sub-humid (-99) (-0.13) 10,6 -189 0.72 Sub-humid (-116) (-0.15) 758 9,5 -66 0.88 -166 0.75 Humid Sub-humid to (-100) (-0.13) Humid 9,6 -187 0.72 Sub-humid (-121) (-0.16) 10,5 -165 0.75 Sub-humid to (-99) (-0.13) Humid 10,6 -183 0.73 Sub-humid (-117) (-0.15) Great Sand 819 6,5 -236 0.58 -338 0.49 Dry Sub-humid Semi-arid Hills (-102) (-0.09) (SK-7) 6,6 -368 0.46 Semi-arid (-132) (-0.12) 7,5 -337 0.49 Semi-arid (-101) (-0.09) 7,6 -367 0.46 Semi-arid (-131) (-0.12) Dundurn/ 776 7,5 -198 0.64 -295 0.55 Dry Sub-humid Dry Sub-humid Pike Lake (-97) (-0.09) Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito 739 5,4 -117 0.78 -193 0.68 Humid Sub-humid Lake Sand (-76) (-0.10) Hills 5,5 -212 0.66 Sub-humid (SK-23) (-95) (-0.12) 6,4 -198 0.68 Sub-humid (-81) (-0.10) 6,5 -211 0.66 Sub-humid (-94) (-0.12)

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-19 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Precip 1961-1990 P:PE 2050s Climatic Dune Area Surplus/Deficit 1961-1990 Normals Ratios Classification* (P-PE ) mm Climatic Classification* Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GG1 GG1 Nisbet/ 701 7,4 -106 0.80 -199 0.67 Humid Sub-humid Fort à la (-93) (-0.13) Corne 7,5 -197 0.68 Sub-humid Sand Hills (-91) (-0.12) (SK-27 and 28) 8,4 -186 0.69 Sub-humid (-80) (-0.11) 8,5 -208 0.66 Sub-humid (-102) (-0.14) 698 7,4 -75 0.86 -170 0.72 Humid Sub-humid (-95) (-0.14) 7,5 -167 0.73 Sub-humid (-92) (-0.13) 8,4 -155 0.74 Sub-humid (-80) (-0.12) 8,5 -179 0.71 Sub-humid (-104) (-0.15) Middle 815 5,5 -283 0.51 -393 0.43 Dry Sub-humid Semi-arid Sand Hills (-110) (-0.08) (AB-5) 5,6 -428 0.40 Semi-arid (-145) (-0.11) 6,5 -394 0.43 Semi-arid (-111) (-0.08) 6,6 -422 0.40 Semi-arid (-139) (-0.11) * where a P:PE ratio of 0.2-0.5 = Semi-arid, 0.5-0.65 = Dry Sub-humid, 0.65-0.75 = Sub-humid, and 0.75-1.00 = Humid

7-20 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 16: ECHAM4 2050s Winter Precipitation and Temperature

Precipitation Temperature Dune Area 1961-1990 Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GG1 (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills 757 9,5 61 -15.5 66 -10.8 (MB-1) 9,6 64 -11.2 10,5 68 -10.5 10,6 64 -10.8 758 9,5 63 -15.3 68 -10.6 9,6 66 -11.0 10,5 70 -10.3 10,6 66 -10.6 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 51 -11.1 58 -7.5 6,6 52 -7.7 7,5 55 -7.2 7,6 53 -7.5 Dundurn/Pike Lake 776 7,5 52 -15 56 -11.1 Sand Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 59 -14.4 65 -11.0 (SK-23) 5,5 67 -11.1 6,4 62 -10.6 6,5 66 -10.8 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 7,4 56 -17.2 59 -13.2 Sand Hills (SK-27 and 7,5 59 -13.2 28) 8,4 62 -12.9 8,5 57 -12.9 698 7,4 64 -17.3 68 -13.4 7,5 98 -13.4 8,4 72 -13.0 8,5 66 -13.0 Middle Sand Hills (AB- 815 5,5 42 -10.2 48 -7.0 5) 5,6 45 -7.0 6,5 47 -6.6 6,6 43 -6.8

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-21 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 17: ECHAM4 2050s Winter Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit Dune Area P:PE Ratios Normals (P-PE ) mm Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GG1 Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 9,5 61 NA 66 NA 9,6 64 NA 10,5 68 NA 10,6 64 NA 758 9,5 63 NA 68 NA 9,6 66 NA 10,5 70 NA 10,6 66 NA Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 51 NA 58 NA 6,6 52 NA 7,5 55 NA 7,6 53 NA Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 7,5 52 NA 56 NA Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK- 739 5,4 59 NA 65 NA 23) 5,5 67 NA 6,4 62 NA 6,5 66 NA Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 7,4 56 NA 59 NA Hills (SK-27 and 28) 7,5 59 NA 8,4 62 NA 8,5 57 NA 698 7,4 64 NA 68 NA 7,5 68 NA 8,4 72 NA 8,5 66 NA Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 5,5 42 NA 48 NA 5,6 45 NA 6,5 47 NA 6,6 43 NA

7-22 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 18: ECHAM4 2050s Spring Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GG1 (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB- 757 9,5 115 2.8 143 6.6 1) 9,6 146 6.6 10,5 143 6.6 10,6 149 6.8 758 9,5 113 3.0 141 6.8 9,6 143 6.8 10,5 141 6.8 10,6 146 6.9 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 81 4.5 89 7.7 6,6 84 7.7 7,5 95 8.0 7,6 86 7.9 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 7,5 79 2.9 92 6.4 Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 81 2.7 87 5.6 (SK-23) 5,5 86 5.6 6,4 87 5.9 6,5 88 5.9 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 7,4 86 1.4 94 4.9 Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) 7,5 101 4.9 8,4 96 4.9 8,5 107 5.1 698 7,4 91 1.4 68 4.8 7,5 105 4.8 8,4 100 4.9 8,5 111 5.0 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 5,5 74 5.5 78 8.5 5,6 74 8.5 6,5 81 8.7 6,6 76 8.7

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-23 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 19: ECHAM4 2050s Spring Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit P:PE Dune Area Normals (P-PE ) mm Ratios Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GG1 Brandon Sand Hills 757 9,5 13 1.12 21 1.17 (MB-1) 9,6 25 1.20 10,5 19 1.15 10,6 26 1.22 758 9,5 9 1.09 17 1.14 9,6 21 1.17 10,5 15 1.12 10,6 22 1.18 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 -29 0.74 -37 0.71 6,6 -39 0.68 7,5 -35 0.73 7,6 -41 0.68 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 7,5 -26 0.75 -30 0.76 Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 -23 0.78 -32 0.73 (SK-23) 5,5 -31 0.73 6,4 -34 0.72 6,5 -30 0.75 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 7,4 -11 0.89 -23 0.80 Sand Hills (SK-27 and 7,5 -14 0.88 28) 8,4 -24 0.80 8,5 -9 0.92 698 7,4 -4 0.96 -17 0.85 7,5 -8 0.93 8,4 -17 0.85 8,5 -3 0.98 Middle Sand Hills (AB- 815 5,5 -42 0.64 -55 0.59 5) 5,6 -56 0.57 6,5 -55 0.59 6,6 -57 0.57

7-24 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 20: ECHAM4 2050s Summer Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GG1 (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 9,5 217 17.8 190 21.6 9,6 195 22.1 10,5 182 21.5 10,6 190 22.1 758 9,5 216 18.0 189 21.8 9,6 194 22.3 10,5 181 21.7 10,6 189 22.3 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 139 17.8 126 21.7 6,6 125 22.4 7,5 129 21.6 7,6 128 22.2 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 7,5 155 17.5 144 21.2 Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 208 16.3 187 19.5 (SK-23) 5,5 189 20.3 6,4 186 19.5 6,5 187 20.2 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 7,4 194 16.2 164 19.5 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 7,5 178 19.9 8,4 176 19.4 8,5 165 20.0 698 7,4 196 16.3 165 19.6 7,5 179 20.1 8,4 178 19.5 8,5 166 20.1 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 5,5 129 18.6 117 22.6 5,6 106 23.4 6,5 117 22.4 6,6 115 23.2

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-25 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 21: ECHAM4 2050s Summer Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit P:PE Dune Area Normals (P-PE ) mm Ratios Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GG1 Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 9,5 -145 0.60 -230 0.45 9,6 -235 0.45 10,5 -236 0.44 10,6 -240 0.44 758 9,5 -149 0.59 -234 0.45 9,6 -239 0.45 10,5 -240 0.43 10,6 -245 0.44 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 -222 0.39 -297 0.30 6,6 -312 0.29 7,5 -290 0.31 7,6 -305 0.29 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 7,5 -202 0.44 -270 0.35 Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 -133 0.61 -198 0.49 (SK-23) 5,5 -210 0.47 6,4 -199 0.48 6,5 -209 0.47 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 7,4 -148 0.57 -220 0.43 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 7,5 -215 0.45 8,4 -206 0.46 8,5 -228 0.42 698 7,4 -148 0.57 -222 0.43 7,5 -216 0.45 8,4 -207 0.46 8,5 -229 0.42 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 5,5 -242 0.35 -322 0.27 5,6 -352 0.23 6,5 -319 0.27 6,6 -336 0.26

7-26 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 22: ECHAM4 2050s Fall Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GG1 (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB- 757 9,5 94 4.1 88 8.5 1) 9,6 74 8.5 10,5 92 8.6 10,6 77 8.7 758 9,5 97 4.1 90 8.5 9,6 76 8.5 10,5 95 8.6 10,6 80 8.7 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 57 4.8 55 8.5 6,6 46 8.7 7,5 51 8.7 7,6 44 8.8 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 7,5 66 3.8 59 7.7 Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 67 3.1 69 6.5 (SK-23) 5,5 64 6.6 6,4 68 6.7 6,5 64 6.8 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 7,4 78 2.2 75 6.0 Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) 7,5 70 6.1 8,4 76 6.2 8,5 70 6.3 698 7,4 93 2.1 90 6.0 7,5 83 6.0 8,4 91 6.2 8,5 84 6.3 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 5,5 58 5.4 55 8.9 5,6 46 9.2 6,5 56 9.1 6,6 46 9.3

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-27 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 23: ECHAM4 2050s Fall Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit P:PE Dune Area Normals (P-PE) mm Ratios Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GG1 Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 9,5 4 1.04 -30 0.75 9,6 -45 0.62 10,5 -26 0.78 10,6 -43 0.64 758 9,5 8 1.09 -26 0.78 9,6 -42 0.64 10,5 -22 0.82 10,6 -39 0.67 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 -37 0.61 -62 0.47 6,6 -73 0.39 7,5 -66 0.44 7,6 -75 0.37 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 7,5 -23 0.74 -53 0.53 Hills (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 -18 0.79 -35 0.66 (SK-23) 5,5 -42 0.60 6,4 -37 0.65 6,5 -42 0.60 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 7,4 -2 0.97 -27 0.74 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 7,5 -33 0.68 8,4 -27 0.73 8,5 -35 0.67 698 7,4 13 1.16 -13 0.88 7,5 -20 0.81 8,4 -13 0.88 8,5 -22 0.79 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 5,5 -38 0.6 -63 0.47 5,6 -75 0.38 6,5 -63 0.47 6,6 -75 0.38

7-28 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 24: HadCM3 2050s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills 757 7,6 482 2.4 527 493 5.6 5.1 (MB-1) (+45) (+11) (+3.2) (+2.7) 8,6 532 493 5.7 5.1 (+50) (+11) (+3.3) (+2.7) 758 7,6 493 2.4 538 503 5.6 5.1 (+45) (+10) (+3.2) (+2.7) 8,6 544 504 5.7 5.1 (+51) (+11) (+3.3) (+2.7) Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,6 329 3.9 373 341 7.2 6.6 (+44) (+12) (+3.3) (+2.7) Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,5 353 2.3 379 369 5.4 4.7 Hills (SK-15 and 16) (+26) (+16) (+2.1) (+2.4) 5,6 400 366 5.6 5.0 (+47) (+13) (+3.3) (+2.7) 6,5 375 358 5.3 4.8 (+22) (+5) (+3.0) (+2.5) 6,6 387 362 5.7 5.1 (+34) (+9) (+3.4) (+2.8) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,5 413 1.9 442 422 5.1 4.6 (SK-23) (+29) (+9) (+3.2) (+2.7) 5,5 444 432 5.0 4.3 (+31) (+19) (+3.1) (+2.4) Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 6,4 412 0.6 442 438 3.3 2.7 Sand Hills (SK-27 and (+30) (+26) (+2.7) (+2.1) 28) 6,5 438 419 3.6 3.1 (+26) (+7) (+3.0) (+2.5) 698 6,4 443 0.6 475 470 3.3 2.7 (+32) (+27) (+2.7) (+2.1) 6,5 471 450 3.6 3.1 (+28) (+7) (+3.0) (+2.5) Middle Sand Hills (AB- 815 4,6 300 4.7 345 309 7.9 7.5 5) (+45) (+9) (+3.2) (+2.8) 5,6 340 311 8.0 7.4 (+40) (+11) (+3.3) (+2.7)

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-29 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 25: HadCM3 2050s Annual Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

Precip Surplus/Deficit 1961-1990 2050s Climatic Dune Area (P-PE ) P:PE Ratios Normals 1961-1990 Classification* mm Climatic Grid Classification* Name Eco-district P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell Brandon Sand 757 7,6 -73 0.87 -115 -141 0.82 0.78 Humid Humid Humid Hills (MB-1) (-42) (-68) (-0.05) (-0.09) 8,6 -112 -141 0.83 0.78 Humid Humid (-39) (-68) (-0.04) (-0.09) 758 7,6 -66 0.88 -108 -134 0.83 0.79 Humid Humid Humid (-42) (-46) (-0.05) (-0.09) 8,6 -104 -134 0.84 0.79 Humid Humid (-38) (-46) (-0.04) (-0.09) Great Sand Hills 819 5,6 -236 0.58 -257 -299 0.58 0.53 Dry Sub-humid Dry Dry (SK-7) (-21) (-63) (0) (-0.05) Sub- Sub- humid humid Dundurn/Pike 776 5,5 -198 0.64 -247 -251 0.61 0.59 Dry Sub-humid Dry Dry Lake Sand Hills (-49) (-53) (-0.03) (-0.05) Sub- Sub- (SK-15 and 16) humid humid 5,6 -233 -258 0.63 0.59 Dry Dry (-35) (-60) (-0.01) (-0.05) Sub- Sub- humid humid 6,5 -253 -264 0.60 0.58 Dry Dry (-55) (-66) (-0.04) (-0.06) Sub- Sub- humid humid 6,6 -249 -265 0.61 0.58 Dry Dry (-51) (-67) (-0.03) (-0.06) Sub- Sub- humid humid Manito Lake 739 4,5 -117 0.78 -161 -175 0.73 0.71 Humid Sub- Sub- Sand Hills (-44) (-58) (-0.05) (-0.07) humid humid (SK-23) 5,5 -157 -164 0.74 0.73 Sub- Sub- (-40) (-47) (-0.04) (-0.05) humid humid Nisbet/Fort à la 701 6,4 -106 0.80 -142 -141 0.76 0.76 Humid Humid Humid Corne Sand (-36) (-35) (-0.04) (-0.04) Hills (SK-27 6,5 -153 -167 0.74 0.72 Sub- Sub- and 28) (-47) (-61) (-0.06) (-0.08) humid humid 698 6,4 -75 0.86 -110 -110 0.81 0.81 Humid Humid Humid (-35) (-35) (-0.05) (-0.05) 6,5 -121 -136 0.80 0.77 Humid Humid (-46) (-61) (-0.06) (-0.09) Middle Sand 815 4,6 -283 0.51 -323 -356 0.52 0.46 Dry Sub-humid Dry Semi- Hills (AB-5) (-40) (-73) (+0.01) (-0.05) Sub- arid humid 5,6 -333 -354 0.50 0.47 Semi- Semi- (-50) (-71) (-0.01) (-0.04) arid to arid Dry Sub- humid * where a P:PE ratio of 0.2-0.5 = Semi-arid, 0.5-0.65 = Dry Sub-humid, 0.65-0.75 = Sub-humid, and 0.75-1.00 = Humid

7-30 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 26: HadCM3 2050s Winter Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Precip Temp Name Eco-district Grid Cell GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB- 757 7,6 61 -15.5 76 68 -11.6 -13.2 1) 8,6 77 67 -11.5 -13.3 758 7,6 63 -15.3 78 69 -11.4 -13.0 8,6 79 69 -11.3 -13.1 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,6 51 -11.1 64 66 -7.1 -9.0 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,5 52 -15.0 65 66 -11.2 -13.1 Hills (SK-15 and 16) 5,6 64 67 -11.0 -12.9 6,5 65 58 -11.2 -13.1 6,6 63 61 -10.9 -12.8 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,5 59 -14.4 79 79 -10.7 -11.8 (SK-23) 5,5 74 74 -10.5 -12.4 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 6,4 56 -17.2 68 64 -13.6 -15.6 Sand Hills (SK-27 and 28) 6,5 70 63 -13.4 -15.3 698 6,4 64 -17.3 78 74 -13.7 -15.7 6,5 81 72 -13.5 -15.4 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,6 42 -10.2 57 54 -6.0 -7.4 5,6 52 55 -6.2 -8.0

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-31 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 27: HadCM3 2050s Winter Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit Dune Area P:PE Ratios Normals (P-PE) mm Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,6 61 NA 76 68 NA NA 8,6 77 67 NA NA 758 7,6 63 NA 78 69 NA NA 8,6 79 69 NA NA Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,6 51 NA 64 66 NA NA Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,5 52 NA 65 66 NA NA Hills (SK-15 and 16) 5,6 64 67 NA NA 6,5 65 58 NA NA 6,6 63 61 NA NA Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK- 739 4,5 59 NA 79 79 NA NA 23) 5,5 74 74 NA NA Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 6,4 56 NA 68 64 NA NA Hills (SK-27 and 28) 6,5 70 63 NA NA 698 6,4 64 NA 78 74 NA NA 6,5 81 72 NA NA Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,6 42 NA 57 54 NA NA 5,6 52 55 NA NA

7-32 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 28: HadCM3 2050s Spring Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,6 115 2.8 156 128 4.4 5.4 8,6 149 136 4.4 5.3 758 7,6 113 3.0 154 126 4.6 5.5 8,6 146 134 4.6 5.4 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,6 81 4.5 115 83 6.5 7.0 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills 776 5,5 79 2.9 100 87 4.6 5.0 (SK-15 and 16) 5,6 112 81 4.8 5.4 6,5 95 87 4.3 5.0 6,6 108 78 4.8 5.7 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,5 81 2.7 106 84 4.5 4.8 (SK-23) 5,5 103 89 4.3 4.7 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 6,4 86 1.4 94 106 2.5 2.8 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 6,5 104 95 2.8 3.5 698 6,4 91 1.4 99 112 2.4 2.8 6,5 109 100 2.8 3.5 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,6 74 5.5 102 75 7.0 7.7 5,6 105 75 7.5 8.0

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-33 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 29: HadCM3 2050s Spring Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit Dune Area P:PE Ratios Normals (P-PE) mm Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Brandon Sand Hills (MB- 757 7,6 13 1.12 52 9 1.49 1.08 1) 8,6 44 21 1.42 1.19 758 7,6 9 1.09 48 6 1.45 1.05 8,6 40 18 1.38 1.15 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,6 -29 0.74 5 -37 1.05 0.69 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand 776 5,5 -26 0.75 -7 -30 0.94 0.74 Hills (SK-15 and 16) 5,6 6 -34 1.06 0.71 6,5 -12 -31 0.88 0.74 6,6 1 -42 1.01 0.65 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,5 -23 0.78 2 -27 1.01 0.76 (SK-23) 5,5 -3 -26 0.97 0.77 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne 701 6,4 -11 0.89 -5 0 0.95 1.00 Sand Hills (SK-27 and 6,5 4 -15 1.04 0.86 28) 698 6,4 -4 0.96 2 8 1.02 1.08 6,5 12 -8 1.12 0.92 Middle Sand Hills (AB- 815 4,6 -42 0.64 -13 -53 0.89 0.59 5) 5,6 -15 -56 0.88 0.57

7-34 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 30: HadCM3 2050s Summer Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,6 217 17.8 208 211 21.4 20.8 8,6 215 204 21.5 21.0 758 7,6 216 18.0 207 210 21.6 21.0 8,6 214 203 21.7 21.2 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,6 139 17.8 133 145 21.3 21.0 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills 776 5,5 155 17.5 149 152 20.7 20.4 (SK-15 and 16) 5,6 149 162 21.0 20.6 6,5 151 145 20.8 20.4 6,6 150 161 21.1 20.5 Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) 739 4,5 208 16.3 185 201 19.7 19.5 5,5 198 204 19.6 19.3 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand Hills 701 6,4 194 16.2 193 190 19.3 19.1 (SK-27 and 28) 6,5 187 180 19.5 19.1 698 6,4 196 16.3 195 192 19.4 19.2 6,5 189 182 19.6 19.2 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,6 129 18.6 126 138 22.0 21.9 5,6 124 136 22.1 21.7

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-35 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 31: HadCM3 2050s Summer Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit Dune Area P:PE Ratios Normals (P-PE) mm Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Brandon Sand Hills 757 7,6 -145 0.60 -210 -196 0.50 0.52 (MB-1) 8,6 -204 -208 0.51 0.49 758 7,6 -149 0.59 -214 -201 0.49 0.51 8,6 -208 -212 0.51 0.49 Great Sand Hills 819 5,6 -222 0.39 -283 -265 0.32 0.35 (SK-7) Dundurn/Pike Lake 776 5,5 -202 0.44 -257 -249 0.37 0.38 Sand Hills (SK-15 5,6 -262 -243 0.36 0.40 and 16) 6,5 -255 -256 0.37 0.36 6,6 -261 -240 0.37 0.40 Manito Lake Sand 739 4,5 -133 0.61 -202 -185 0.48 0.52 Hills (SK-23) 5,5 -188 -178 0.51 0.53 Nisbet/Fort à la 701 6,4 -148 0.57 -190 -192 0.50 0.50 Corne Sand Hills 6,5 -199 -201 0.48 0.47 (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,4 -148 0.57 -191 -192 0.51 0.50 6,5 -199 -201 0.49 0.48 Middle Sand Hills 815 4,6 -242 0.35 -302 -287 0.29 0.32 (AB-5) 5,6 -306 -287 0.29 0.32

7-36 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 32: HadCM3 2050s Fall Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,6 94 4.1 85 90 8.0 7.3 8,6 92 89 7.9 7.2 758 7,6 97 4.1 88 93 8.0 7.3 8,6 95 92 7.9 7.2 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,6 57 4.8 53 52 8.5 7.6 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills 776 5,5 66 3.8 66 68 7.3 6.5 (SK-15 and 16) 5,6 64 61 7.5 6.6 6,5 67 70 7.4 6.7 6,6 61 64 7.7 6.8 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,5 67 3.1 58 70 6.8 6.0 (SK-23) 5,5 65 69 6.6 5.8 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 6,4 78 2.2 87 81 5.3 4.8 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 6,5 79 82 5.7 5.0 698 6,4 93 2.1 105 97 5.3 4.7 6,5 95 98 5.7 5.0 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,6 58 5.4 51 49 9.2 8.3 5,6 52 52 9.1 8.2

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-37 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 33: HadCM3 2050s Fall Precipitation Surplus/Deficit and P:PE Ratios

1961-1990 Precip Surplus/Deficit Dune Area P:PE Ratios Normals (P-PE) mm Name Eco-district Grid Cell P-PE P:PE GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Brandon Sand Hills 757 7,6 4 1.04 -34 -17 0.72 0.84 (MB-1) 8,6 -28 -18 0.77 0.83 758 7,6 8 1.09 -30 -13 0.74 0.87 8,6 -24 -14 0.80 0.87 Great Sand Hills 819 5,6 -37 0.61 -69 -57 0.44 0.48 (SK-7) Dundurn/Pike Lake 776 5,5 -23 0.74 -48 -34 0.58 0.67 Sand Hills (SK-15 5,6 -53 -43 0.55 0.59 and 16) 6,5 -47 -33 0.59 0.68 6,6 -57 -42 0.52 0.60 Manito Lake Sand 739 4,5 -18 0.79 -55 -29 0.51 0.71 Hills (SK-23) 5,5 -45 -29 0.59 0.71 Nisbet/Fort à la 701 6,4 -2 0.97 -14 -10 0.86 0.89 Corne Sand Hills 6,5 -26 -12 0.75 0.87 (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,4 13 1.16 3 5 1 03 1.05 6,5 -11 4 0.90 1.04 Middle Sand Hills 815 4,6 -38 0.60 -74 -62 0.41 0.44 (AB-5) 5,6 -73 -59 0.42 0.47

7-38 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 34: CGCM1 2080s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,4 482 2.4 489 514 9.1 8.6 8,4 491 506 9.9 9.0 758 7,4 493 2.4 500 526 9.1 8.6 8,4 502 517 9.9 9.0 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,4 329 3.9 369 361 9.5 9.0 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills 776 5,3 353 2.3 397 398 8.8 8.0 (SK-15 and 16) 5,4 396 387 7.9 7.4 6,3 379 389 7.9 7.1 6,4 378 374 8.2 8.0 Manito Lake Sand Hills (SK-23) 739 4,3 413 1.9 470 482 8.0 7.3 5,3 464 466 8.4 7.6 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 6,3 412 0.6 442 454 6.2 5.4 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 698 6,3 443 0.6 476 488 6.2 5.4 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,4 300 4.7 343 345 10.3 9.6 5,4 337 329 10.3 9.8

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-39 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 35: ECHAM4 2080s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GG1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 9,5 482 2.4 472 8.3 9,6 481 8.1 10,5 501 8.4 10,6 497 8.4 758 9,5 493 2.4 483 8.3 9,6 492 8.1 10,5 513 8.4 10,6 508 8.4 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 6,5 329 3.9 329 8.8 6,6 305 8.9 7,5 314 9.1 7,6 319 9.0 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills 776 7,5 353 2.3 337 7.5 (SK-15 and 16) Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 5,4 413 1.9 414 6.4 (SK-23) 5,5 415 6.5 6,4 400 6.8 6,5 414 6.8 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 7,4 412 0.6 400 5.8 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 7,5 393 5.8 8,4 418 6.1 8,5 388 6.2 698 7,4 443 0.6 431 5.8 7,5 423 5.8 8,4 450 6.1 8,5 417 6.2 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 5,5 300 4.7 302 9.3 5,6 264 9.7 6,5 300 9.6 6,6 278 9.7

7-40 SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 An Ecoregion Approach for Evaluating Land Use Management and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Sand Dune Areas in the Prairie Provinces June, 2001

Table 36: HadCM3 2080s Annual Precipitation and Temperature

1961-1990 Precipitation Temperature Dune Area Normals (mm) (°C) Grid Precip Temp Name Eco-district GG1 GA1 GG1 GA1 Cell (mm) (°C) Brandon Sand Hills (MB-1) 757 7,6 482 2.4 537 512 7.2 6.8 8,6 547 528 7.4 7.1 758 7,6 493 2.4 549 523 7.2 6.8 8,6 559 540 7.4 7.1 Great Sand Hills (SK-7) 819 5,6 329 3.9 392 353 8.7 8.0 Dundurn/Pike Lake Sand Hills 776 5,5 353 2.3 400 390 6.9 6.1 (SK-15 and 16) 5,6 421 379 7.1 6.4 6,5 385 382 6.9 6.2 6,6 391 377 7.2 6.6 Manito Lake Sand Hills 739 4,5 413 1.9 459 450 6.7 5.9 (SK-23) 5,5 468 456 6.5 5.7 Nisbet/Fort à la Corne Sand 701 6,4 412 0.6 445 468 4.9 4.1 Hills (SK-27 and 28) 6,5 449 445 5.2 4.5 698 6,4 443 0.6 479 503 4.9 4.1 6,5 483 479 5.2 4.5 Middle Sand Hills (AB-5) 815 4,6 300 4.7 364 321 9.5 8.7 5,6 358 322 9.5 8.8

SRC Publication No. 11368-1E01 7-41