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Pan-Asia Automobiles and Components Pan Asia Consumer Discretionary 4 July 2018 Pan-Asia Automobiles and Components Fuel-cell electric vehicles: the ultimate solution to zero emissions FCEVs set to replicate the rapid EV penetration of the past 3 years; raising global FCEV shipment forecast by 17% to 9.5m units by 2030 Sung Yop Chung Expansion in trading multiples for FCEV players, more so component (82) 2 787 9157 makers across the board, set to accelerate in the next 12 months [email protected] Eiji Hakomori Toyota Motors is our top pick over the next 12 months; we also like (81) 3 5555 7072 Hanon Systems and Hyundai Motor over the next 6 months [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 88 Pan Asia Consumer Discretionary 4 July 2018 Pan-Asia Automobiles and Components Fuel-cell electric vehicles: the ultimate solution to zero emissions FCEVs set to replicate the rapid EV penetration of the past 3 years; raising global FCEV shipment forecast by 17% to 9.5m units by 2030 Sung Yop Chung Expansion in trading multiples for FCEV players, more so component (82) 2 787 9157 makers across the board, set to accelerate in the next 12 months [email protected] Eiji Hakomori Toyota Motors is our top pick over the next 12 months; we also like (81) 3 5555 7072 Hanon Systems and Hyundai Motor over the next 6 months [email protected] What's new: Since we first published our Pan-Asia auto report on green Key stock calls cars (click here) on 14 November 2014, global shipments of electric New Prev. vehicles (EVs) have seen exponential growth, with 2017 shipments Hanon Systems (018880 KS) Rating Buy Buy reaching 1.26m units from a mere 180,000 units in 2014. However, with the Target 16,000 13,000 ongoing industry debate about the environmental benefits of EVs, we Upside 54.6% advocate our now more optimistic view on fuel-cell electric vehicles Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) (FCEVs) becoming the ultimate solution for zero emissions. Rating Buy Outperform Target 160,000 170,000 What's the impact: FCEVs to lead the pack over the long term. From Upside 31.1% 2025, we envisage FCEVs replicating the rapid penetration of EVs over the Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS) Rating Outperform Buy past 3 years. As such, we are revising up our global FCEV shipment CAGR Target 235,000 360,000 forecast for 2018-30E by 17% to 9.5m units by 2030 on: 1)The ever-more Upside 14.6% stringent regulatory environment with potentially large fines for auto OEMs Toyota Motor (7203 JP) from 2020E, 2) FCEVs as the ultimate solution to countries achieving zero Rating Outperform Outperform emissions, and 3) a rise in infrastructure investment and decline in stack Target JPY8,700 JPY8,700 Upside 23.0% costs, which currently account for 30-40% of FCEV production costs. As such, we forecast a 62.5% FCEV unit CAGR over 2018-30E, outstripping Source: Daiwa forecasts the 20.4% CAGR that we forecast for EV units for the same period. Expansion in trading multiples for FCEV component makers over the next 12 months. Since the launch of the first FCEVs in 2013, the FCEV players’ PERs have expanded by an average of 20.4%, with 25.5% for the components makers, across the board. We expect this expansion to become more apparent for FCEV parts makers, given the strong potential for them to lead the way in the initial stage of FCEV development over the next 12 months, with their comparative edge over the auto OEMs in manufacturing key components and system-supplying capability. What we recommend: Toyota Motor (7203 JP, JPY7,075, Outperform [2]) is our top pick for its competitive edge in environmental technology, including FCEVs, which enables it to comply with current environmental regulations. We also like Hanon Systems (018880 KS, KRW10,350, Buy [1]) for its strong competitive foothold in thermal energy management for FCEVs. We upgrade Hyundai Motor (005380 KS, KRW122,000) to Buy (1) on the prospect of it entering an earnings-revision cycle from 2H18, and given it is one of the few global OEMs that has the technology for key components such as membrane electrode assembly (MEA). Finally, we downgrade Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS, KRW205,000) to Outperform (2) given its relative weakness in FCEVs. Key risk: regulatory changes. How we differ: Our EPS forecasts for Toyota, HMC, Hanon, and Mobis are higher than the Bloomberg consensus, likely because of our view of an upward earnings-revision cycle and sound competitive footprint in FCEVs. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 88 Pan-Asia Automobiles and Components: 4 July 2018 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook FCEVs: Daiwa’s revised market forecasts We now expect FCEV shipments to get another boost from ('000 units) 2020E, triggered by: 1) the ever-more stringent regulatory 35,000 environment for auto OEMs from 2020E, 2) FCEVs as the 30,000 4,697 ultimate solution to countries achieving zero emissions, 25,000 4,361 and 3) a rise in infrastructure investment and decline in 20,000 4,146 17,169 stack costs. As such, we are revising up our global FCEV 15,000 3,951 14,308 3,651 shipment CAGR forecast for 2018-30E to 9.5m units (a 3,317 11,923 10,000 3,043 9,936 2,865 8,280 2018-30E 62.5% CAGR) vs. our previous forecast of 8.1m 2,5522,731 6,900 5,000 3,020 5,750 7,7339,460 2,1852,530 4,792 5,140 units for 2018-30E (51.9% CAGR). We expect FCEV 1,6951,880 1,980 2,3903,300 3,630 3,993 2,7013,494 1,5201050 1,561 1801 5402 7703 1,26210 1,850 28 61 109 289 464 959 1,5802,175 shipments to accelerate and surpass EV shipment growth 0 beyond 2025E. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E FCEV EV HEV Source: Daiwa estimates and forecasts Valuation Auto OEMs vs. FCEV parts makers EPS CAGR vs. PER We look for FCEV auto-parts suppliers with system- (2018-20E EPS CAGR, % ) supplying capability and higher-than-expected FCEV parts 40 ASPs to lead the way in smart-car development over the 30 Kawasaki next 5 years. Global avg 20 HMC (12.0, 5.0) Iwatani Air Liquide Hence, we expect these companies’ valuation premiums 10 VW Shell Engie Alstom over global OEMs to widen over 2018-20. On both the Toyota Stat oil Linde 0 Daimler Total Daiwa and Bloomberg-consensus forecasts, the FCEV GM CHN Energy auto-parts’ players would deliver an EPS CAGR of 12.3% (10) Mitsui chemical Honda for 2018-20, vs. 6.3% for the global FCEV makers (OEMs). (20) 0 5 10 15 20 25 (2018E PER, x ) Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Earnings revisions Major Pan-Asia automakers and component makers: Bloomberg vs. Daiwa forecasts Within our Pan-Asia coverage of major auto and (USD) components makers, we expect HMC to see the strongest 35 upward earnings-revision cycle, followed by Mobis and 30 Toyota. 25 20 From its low base in 2017 with a steeper-than-expected 15 shipment decline from Korea and China’s THAAD 10 deployment, we look for HMC’s new product cycle, 5 product-mix improvements (a rise in its high-margin SUV 0 shipments), and competitive advantage in ex-China BBG Daiwa BBG Daiwa BBG Daiwa BBG Daiwa emerging markets to support an upward earnings-revision HMC Mobis Hanon Toyota cycle from 2H18 – the first since 2012. 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2020E EPS Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts 2 Pan-Asia Automobiles and Components: 4 July 2018 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg Hanon Systems 018880 KS 10,350 Buy Buy 16,000 13,000 23.1% 605 592 2.2% 771 740 4.2% Hyundai Mobis 012330 KS 205,000 Outperform Buy 235,000 360,000 (34.7%) 23,149 30,809 (24.9%) 27,416 33,414 (17.9%) Hyundai Motor 005380 KS 122,000 Buy Outperform 160,000 170,000 (5.9%) 14,065 17,064 (17.6%) 16,839 20,124 (16.3%) Toyota Motor 7203 JP 7,075 Outperform Outperform 8,700 8,700 0 811.8 811.8 0 871.3 871.3 0 Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts. Share prices as of 3 July 2018 Potential FCEV beneficiaries by industry 2018E 2019E Share Market EPS EPS price Cap FY 2017 FY 2017 Growth Growth 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E Company BBG Ticker (LC) (USDm) OPM (%) NPM (%) (%) (%) PER (x) PER (x) PBR (x) PBR (x) ROE (%) ROE (%) FCEV description Automotive OEMs GM GM US 39 57,801 (1.0) 6.5 n.a. 6.1 6.1 6.1 1.4 1.2 25.3 21.9 FCEV OEM VW VOW GR 140 83,631 2.4 5.0 16.8 8.2 5.3 4.9 0.6 0.6 12.1 11.8 FCEV OEM HMC* 005380 KS 122,000 23,990 4.8 4.3 (0.4) 19.7 8.7 7.2 0.5 0.4 5.3 6.1 FCEV OEM Toyota 7203 JP 7,075 209,183 6.4 6.6 (3.6) 7.3 8.7 8.1 1.0 0.9 12.0 11.9 FCEV OEM Honda 7267 JP 3,210 53,205 3.6 4.1 72.7 n.a.
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