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http://www.jstor.org WHAT MAKESPEOPLE THINK LIKEECONOMISTS? EVIDENCEON ECONOMICCOGNITION FROM THE "SURVEYOF AMERICANSAND ECONOMISTSON THE ECONOMY"*

BRYANCAPLAN

ABSTRACT The positive economic beliefs of and the general public systematically differ. What factors make noneconomists think more like economists? Using the "Survey of and Economists on the Economy," this paper shows people think more like economists (1) if they are well educated, (2) if they are male, (3) if their real income rose over the last 5 years, (4) if they expect their real income to rise over the next 5 years, or (5) if they have a high degree of job security. However, neither high income nor ideological conservatism have this effect. My findings for education, gender, and income have close parallels in political science: on tests of objective political knowledge, the better educated and males score higher, controlling for numerous other variables, and effect of income is minor.

I. INTRODUCTION

1 HE positive beliefs of economists systematically differ from those of the general public,~ but the public is itself heterogeneous. What factors tend to make noneconomists "think like economists," that is, to moderate or eliminate their rejection of economists' consensus positions? Using data from the "Sur-

* For discussion and useful suggestions I would like to thank Don Boudreaux, , Robin Hanson, Thomas Stratmann, Roger Congleton, Pete Boettke, Bill Dickens, Mitch Mitch- ell, Ed Lopez, J. C. Bradbury, Todd Zywicki, David Bernstein, Dan Klein, Alex Tabarrok, Nicky Tynan, Ron Heiner, Fab Rojas, Andrew Sellgren, Veronique de Rugy, Corina Caplan, Walter Williams, Charles Rowley, , Lawrence Kenny, Alan Sykes, Sam Peltz- man, an anonymous referee, seminar participants at George Mason, participants at the Outreach seminar and the Public Choice Society meetings, and members of my Armchair Economists' listserv. Particular thanks are owed to the Kaise