Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Deyr 2010/11

Information for Better Livelihoods

January 26, 2011

Shabelle Regions

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

Field Coverage in Shabelle Regions:

•FS field analysts in Lower and had access to field in most districts, including Qoryaley, Kurtunwarey, Merca and Afgoye in L/Sh and Balad, Jowhar and parts of Cadale districts in M/Sh.

• In the areas that could not be accessed by the Field Analysts directly, Food Security information was collected through teleconferencing using enumerators with key informants/focus groups. In addition, FS analysts travelled to most districts for crop assessment, field observation, livestock and market conditions.

•Nutrition information was obtained through partners and key informants. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income: • Riverine livelihood: ‰ Primary sources of income of poor: sale of crops, agricultural labour, and self employment. ‰ Primary food sources of poor: Own crop and purchase. ‰ Primary livelihood asset of poor: Agriculture land

• Agropastoral Livelihoods (Agropastoral Maize/cattle and Agropastoral Sorghum/cattle) ‰ Agropastoral Maize/Cattle: Primary sources of income of poor : crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); ‰ Main sources of food of poor: own production(maize) and purchase.

‰ Agropastoral Sorghum/Cattle: Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self- employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food : own production(Sorghum) and purchase. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010 Rainfall

Climate: Deyr 2010/2011 dekadal rainfall performances

Overall statement: Deyr rains have failed in all livelihoods of the Shabelle regions. Satellite imagery indicate cumulative rainfall (October-December) of 0-20% of the normal.

• Start of Season: started on time

• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very low intensity of rains, with inadequate duration, frequency and amount in both regions.

Source: Climate Vegetation Conditions (M.Shabelle)

NDVI/RFE trend by district & land cover Climate Vegetation Conditions (L.Shabelle)

NDVI/RFE trend by district & land cover Civil Insecurity

¾ Civil Security Situation: • High political tension among religious groups

• Prolonged political confrontation in , and likely new conflicts at the border of M. Shabelle with Hiran

¾ Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Market disruption mainly in the districts surrounding Mogadishu. •Short term impact on urban areas and transportation routes in conflict areas. •Restriction of humanitarian intervention - (suspension of World vision, Diakonia and ADRA activities in southern Somalia) negatively impacting access to food and basic services (IDPs health posts and feeding centers ). • High taxation by local authorities in the rural areas that led many households to migrate to less controlled areas.

Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates

Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates Deyr 2010/11 Production in Deyr 2010/11 Deyr 2010/11 as Deyr 2010/11 MT as % of Deyr % of 5 year Districts Total Cereal as % of Deyr PWA average Maize Sorghum ‘09/10 (1995-2009) (2005-2009)

Adan Yabaal --0-- -

Balcad 2,450 - 2,450 70% 68% 98% Cadale --0-- -

Jowhar/Mahaday 2,800 - 2,800 41% 36% 56% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 5,250 0 5,250 51% 46% 70% Deyr 2011 Total

Shabelle Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates Deyr 2010/11 Production in Deyr 2010/11 Deyr 2010/11 Deyr 2010/11 MT as % of Deyr as % of 5 year Districts Total Cereal as % of Deyr PWA average Maize Sorghum ‘09/10 (1995-2009) (2005-2009)

Afgooye 600 600 8% 7% 11% Baraawe --0-- - Kurtunwaarey 2,200 - 2,200 210% 79% 78% Marka 2,400 - 2,400 90% 27% 66% Qoryoley 1,500 - 1,500 50% 27% 39% Sablale 960 - 960 100% 133% 249% Wanla Weyne --0-- - Shabelle Hoose (Lower) Deyr 7,660 0 7,660 34% 23% 38% 2011 Total Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in Middle Shabelle (1995-2010)

Deyr 10/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)

Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in (1995-2010)

Deyr 10/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)

Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends in Shabelle Regions – Combined (1995-2010) Agriculture Regional Contribution to Overall Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia

Shabelle regions collectively account for 72% of the total cereal production (maize and sorghum) in southern Somalia. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates(Mt)– Middle Shabelle

District Sesame C/pea Rice Total

Jowhar 450 120 3,000 3,570

Balad 180 60 - 240

Cadale - - - -

A/Yabal - - - -

Total 630 180 3,000 3,810 Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates – Lower Shabelle

District Sesame Cowpea Total Afgoye 150 30 180 0 0 0 K/warey 2000 80 2080 Marka 40 300 340 Qorioley 60 35 95 Sablale 1000 150 1150 W/weyne 0 0 0 Total 3,250 595 3,845 Agriculture Differences Between Riverine Areas in M and L. Shabelle Regions

Lower Shabelle Middle Shabelle

Good irrigation infrastructure Poor irrigation infrastructure

Banana plantations Rice plantation

Good gravity irrigation Pumping irrigation

Good market access (paved road) Poor market access (rough road)

Interventions from local NGOs Limited interventions from local NGOs MSOffice2 Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

Good Riverine Rice Crop. Kallundi, Poor Maize Crop. Marka, Lower Shabelle, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 FSNAU, December 2010.

Significant drop down of Shabelle River Level. Good sesame,Goosarow,Qoryoley,Lower Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Slide 16

MSOffice2 , 14/01/2010 Agriculture

Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow: Maize from Shabelle flows to Mogadishu markets and then to Hiran and central regions Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade

Trends in Cereal Prices: Jowhar (Middle Shabelle)

Factors Influencing cereal prices: • Poor Maize production - Riverine •Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods. • High demand on maize from neighbouring regions, including Banadir

Trends in Cereal Prices: Afgoye, Marka and Qoryoley (Lower Shabelle) Agriculture Labour Rates & Availability

Middle Shabelle (Jowhar)

Factors Influencing Wage Labour Rates: •High supply of casual labour (L. Shabelle in particular), pushing down the wage rates.

• Agricultural activities such as canal rehabilitation/road maintenance as a cash for work •Seasonality

Lower Shabelle (all main markets) Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Jowhar, Middle Shabelle (5 kg of maize/ daily wage rate)

Factors affecting Terms of Trade:

• High cereal prices • Decrease in labour wage rates • High supply of casual labour due to labour migration from agro-pastoral areas following a very poor seasonal performance.

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Lower Shabelle (6 kg of maize/ daily wage rate) Livestock

Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration in Deyr ’10/11

• Poor performance of Deyr ’10/11 season in both regions resulting in below normal pasture and water

• Abnormal migration to riverine areas of both regions. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11) Calving/ki Milk Expected Conception dding Region production calving/ kidding (Deyr ’10/11) (Deyr (Deyr ’10/11) Jan – Jun ‘11 ’10/11) Livelihoods Livestock Species

M/L Shabelle Low for all Medium Poor for all Camel : Medium Shabelle Agro- All Species: Decreased trend species in all for all species Cattle: Low- Pastoral for all species livelihoods species None Shoats: Low Livestock Trends in Goat Prices

Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: M/ Shabelle (Jowhar)

Factors Influencing livestock prices: • Poor body condition • Less saleable animals in Middle Shabelle • Increased livestock supply into Lower Shabelle markets after an influx of livestock from other livelihoods and regions into riverine • Low livestock demand after the end of Hajj period

Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: L/ Shabelle (all markets) Livestock Trends in Cattle Prices

Regional Trends in Local Cattle Prices (M/ Shabelle) ‐ Jowhar

Factors Influencing Livestock Prices:

• Poor body condition • High livestock supply into markets after an influx of livestock into riverine areas • Reduced sales at Garissa market due to poor pasture and shortage of water along cattle trekking route to the market •Low livestock demand after Hajj period

Regional Trends in Local Cattle Prices (L/Shabelle) –All markets Livestock Trends in Terms of Trade – goat to cereal

Regional Trends inTerms of Trade: M/ Shabelle (64kg of maize/goat) - Jawhar

Factors Influencing Goat to Maize ToT: • High Cereal Prices •Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and high supply.

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat: L/ Shabelle (98 kg/head) – all markets Livestock Trends in Terms of Trade – local quality cattle to cereal

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: M/ Shabelle

(267kg of maize/head of cattle)

Factors Influencing TOT (cattle to maize): • High Cereal Prices •Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions, low demand and high supply.

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: L/ Shabelle

( 176 kg of maize/head of cattle) Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price increase (last six months) •Disruption in commercial imports and Bakkara market, due to persisting fighting in Mogadishu and continuous piracy activities •Increase in prices on international markets Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings Region Nutrition Surveys Rapid MUAC Screening (% Health TFC/OTP/ Other relevant Summary of analysis and (Oct – Dec 10) <12.5cm) Information SFC information – Key change from Gu 10 System Info driving factors

Shabelle M. Shabelle Riverine M. Shabelle Riverine High (>15%) and N/A Overall Aggravating M. Shabelle Riverine – N/A >15% (23.0%;R=3) stable trends July- Factors: Deterioration from Alert- N=1650; 15 sites Dec ‘10, consistent •Civil insecurity - No phase classification due with ‘09 trends Mogadishu remains to insufficient data but the epicenter signs of deterioration and M. Shabelle •Limited likely to be Critical Agropastoral M. Shabelle Agropastoral High (>20%) and Humanitarian space; N/A >15%25.0%; R=3) increasing trends displacement M. Shabelle Agrop - N=1650; 15 sites July-Dec ‘10, associated with civil Deterioration from Alert- higher than ‘09 insecurity No phase classification due trends •Disease outbreaks- to insufficient data signs of L. Shabelle Riverine AWD, cholera, deterioration and likely to N=2200; 20 sites malaria and be Critical GAM MUAC of >15% (27.7%; High (>15%) and whooping cough R3) stable trends July- •Taxation L. Shabelle Riverine – SAM MUAC of >3% (8.7% Dec ‘10, consistent •Limited access to Deterioration from likely to R3) with ‘09 trends health centers be Serious in Gu ’10 -No (FSNAU & partners, Dec‘10) •Limited medical phase classification due to supplies in the area insufficient data signs of L. Shabelle Agropastoral High (>20%) and •Increasing number deterioration and likely to N= 2200; 20 sites increasing trends of new IDPs be Critical GAM MUAC of >15% (23.4%; July-Dec ‘10, R3), higher than ‘09 L. Shabelle Agrop - SAMMUAC of >3% (7.4%; trends Overall Mitigating Deterioration from likely to R3) Factors: be Serious in Gu ‘10-No (FSNAU & partners, Dec‘10) High and •Limited access to SF phase classification due to increasing programs insufficient data but signs Mogadishu/ Banadir Very high (>20%) numbers of •Income from sale of of deterioration and likely Afgoye IDPs N=1320; 6 District sites and fluctuating admissions fodder and some to be Critical GAM of 21.6% GAMMUAC of >15% (29.2%; trends in the last 6 (in charge) in labor opportunities (18.2-25.3), R3) months in Medina, ACF among the riverine Afgoye IDPs SAM of 3.2% (2.2-4.6) SAMMUAC of >3% (12.0%; Waberi, Hamar managed •Social support Deterioration from Critical (FSNAU & partners, R3) weyne and Hamar centers in Gu ‘10 to Very Critical Dec’10) (FSNAU & partners, Dec‘10) Jabjab. Low levels (Hodan and (<5%) and stable Forlanini). Banadir trends in Zam zam Source: Jul – Deterioration from likely (July-Dec’10). Dec ’ 2010) Critical in Gu ‘10 to likely Very Critical Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates

Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2010 IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation (M.Shabelle)

MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11 MAP 3: Livelihood Zones

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Middle Shabelle (Central Agro-Pastoral (Aden Yabal and Adale) 50% Poor in HE, 50% Poor AFLC with Watch. Southern Agropastoral (Balad & Jowhar) 75% Poor AFLC with Watch, riverine (Balad and Jowhar) 50% Poor AFLC with Moderate Risk, Coastal Deeh 50% Poor in HE, 50% Poor AFLC with Watch.

• Acute malnutrition: insufficient data with signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical – Central AP • Food Access: entitlement gap; 2100kcal ppp/day • Water Access: average with poor quality • Destitution/Displacement: IDP concentration in camps; increasing. • Coping: collection of bush products, social support including Zakat of animals and crop - riverine, gifts in kind or cash, migration. • Livelihood Assets: remain same as in Gu ’10 in most LZs but deteriorated in Coastal Deeh.

Main Contributing Factors: • Rainfall failure • Crop failure production • High cereal prices • Declining terms of trade • Job opportunity migrate to riverine • Poor livestock body condition and low livestock prices. IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation (L.Shabelle)

MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11 MAP 3: Livelihood Zones

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Lower Shabelle: Agropastoral (Wanlaweyn) BFI with High Risk (25% Poor in AFLC), Southeast Pastoral - BFI with Moderate Risk, Southern Inland Pastoral - BFI with Moderate Risk, riverine - BFI with Moderate Risk, Southern Coastal Pastoral - BFI with Moderate risk. • Acute malnutrition: Insufficient data with signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical • Food Access: borderline adequate (2100kcal ppp day) • Water Access: Average, but quality is very poor. • Destitution/Displacement: concentrated; increasing •Coping: insurance strategies - Collection of bush products, social support including Zakat of animals and crops - riverine. • Livelihood Assets: deteriorating for agro-pastoral and pastoral

Main Contributing Factors: • Maize and cash crop production (riverine) • Carry-over stocks • Cash for work, cash from grass sale • Low labour wages • High milk price • High grass prices for pastoralist and agropastoralists • High cereal prices • IPC Classification of Rural Population (L.Shabelle)

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

UNDP 2005 Rural GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) /Aw L/ Shabelle 178,605 0 0 0 0 Dheegle Baraawe 42,239 0 0 0 0 Kurtunwaarey 48,019 0 0 0 0 Marka 129,039 0 0 0 0 Qoryooley 111,364 0 0 0 0 Sablaale 35,044 0 0 0 0 Wanla Weyn 133,627 0 0 9,000 0 SUB‐TOTAL 677,937 0 0 9,000 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 0 9,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Estimated GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Population by Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Livelihood Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Zones Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE)

L/ Shabelle Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 2,534 0 0 0 0

L.Shab. r/fed & f/irr 372,273 0 0 0 0 Shabelle Riverine 115,552 0 0 0 0 South‐East Pastoral 6,884 0 0 0 0 Southern Agro‐Past 106,902 0 0 9,000 0 Southern Inland Past 73,793 0 0 0 0 SUB‐TOTAL 677,937 0 0 9,000 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 0 9,000 IPC Classification of Rural Population (M.Shabelle)

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Rural GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) M/ Shabelle Adan Yabaal 55,717 4,000 1,000 7,000 7,000 Balcad/Warsheikh 105,266 9,000 0 22,000 5,000 Cadale 35,920 2,000 1,000 5,000 5,000 Jowhar/Mahaday 222,167 30,000 0 36,000 0 SUB‐TOTAL 419,070 45,000 2,000 70,000 17,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 47,000 87,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Estimated GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Population by Acute Food and Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Acute Food and Humanitarian Humanitarian Livelihood Livelihood Livelihood Crisis Emergency Emergency Zones Crisis (AFLC) (HE) (HE) (AFLC) M/ Shabelle Central Agro‐Past 36,695 7,000 2,000 5,000 5,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep 93,722 0 0 12,000 12,000 Shabelle Riverine 53,657 0 0 11,000 0 Southern Agro‐Past 160,948 28,000 0 42,000 0 Southern Inland Past 74,048 10,000 0 0 0 SUB‐TOTAL 419,070 45,000 2,000 70,000 17,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 47,000 87,000 IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

Acute Food and Humanitarian Emergency Total in AFLC or HE as % UNDP 2005 Urban Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) (HE) of Urban population District Population Deyr 10/11 Deyr 10/11 Deyr 10/11

M/ Shabelle Adan Yabaal 7,200 2,000 0 28 Balcad 28,106 6,000 0 21 Cadale 10,800 3,000 0 28 Jowhar 36,844 8,000 0 22 Mahaday 10,246 2,000 0 20 Warsheikh 2,635 1,000 0 38 Sub‐Total 95,831 22,000 0 23 L/Shabelle Afgooye 21,602 2,000 7,000 42 Aw Dheegle 11,505 1,000 4,000 43 Baraawe 15,413 1,000 4,000 32 Kurtunwaarey 7,426 1,000 2,000 40 Marka 63,900 7,000 22,000 45 Qoryooley 22,841 2,000 6,000 35 Sablaale 8,011 1,000 2,000 37 Wanla Weyn 22,016 2,000 6,000 36 Sub‐Total 172,714 17,000 53,000 41 The End