Velina Tchakarova, Michael Zinkanell, Livia Benko, Katrin Süss, Sofia Maria Satanakis, Christoph Schwarz

FOKUS | 1/2021

EU-Trends in 2021

The following paper explores key deve- Southern neighbourhood as well as the With respect to China, the first step in lopments in 2021 regarding the regional Franco-German-Eastern European clash of this direction has already been taken. stability in , the political integration positions in the Eastern neighbourhood Following the redefinition of the strategic of the (EU) as well as its will continue posing obstacles to acting partnership with Beijing by adding „syste- recovery, security and defence, and space geopolitically in a coherent manner. In ge- mic rival“ and “economic competitor“ to policy. Moreover, it outlines possible shifts neral, the EU will have little space to opera- the previous designation of „cooperation and risks considering the most significant te in the increasingly contested terrains in partner“, the signing of an investment deal trends in connection with the EU’s role as a its direct neighbourhood to the South and with Beijing signalled a stronger European geopolitical actor in these areas. East. Building ad hoc flexible coalitions commitment. , the EU‘s top with other regional actors will be decisive, diplomat, described the future bilateral Quo Vadis, geopolitical commission? as numerous upheavals, uncertainties, and relations as a „multi-layered relationship“ crises will continue to nurture a volatile that would be further characterized by The President, geopolitical environment with a direct the competition between China and the , took office with negative impact on the regional stability USA. The EU should therefore choose an the promise of building a true “geopoli- and security in Europe. Consequently, alternative path to avoid being pushed tical commission” a year ago. „A stronger the EU and its member states will have to even further between the two superpo- Europe in the world“ was her motto, while carefully navigate through the complex wers, while carefully navigating through aiming to better coordinate the Union‘s relations between the USA, China, and their systemic rivalry. Finally, despite the foreign and security policy towards Russia in 2021. current constraints, the European Com- strengthening multilateralism based on mission will increasingly enhance its geoe- European norms and standards. This year The presidential election in the USA is a conomic clout while putting the focus on is, however, marked by comprehensive glimmer of hope for Europe. Following the Info-Pacific region. will seek recovery plans following the Covid-19 the election of Joe Biden, the EU and its to facilitate an upgrade of the strategic virus outbreak and significant geopolitical member states will again look to the USA partnership with India and build stronger ambitions in the field of foreign and se- in an anticipation of improving bilateral ties with like-minded countries in Asia curity policy have not yet been signalled. relations. With Joe Biden as President, such as ASEAN1. Moreover, geopolitical In the second year of the Covid-19 virus there is an expectation that the USA will gaps which are increasingly appearing in outbreak, the EU will play a decisive role in recommit to multilateralism and engage the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern shaping the far-reaching socio-economic in building stronger transatlantic ties. Europe will be occupied by powers such developments on the old continent. The However, the new Democratic Presi- as Russia and Turkey and thus will be Covid-19 pandemic has enhanced the dent would also likely demand stronger further intensifying the E