H.A.C.C. Arbitration Brief Filed on Behalf of Ondřej Pavelec
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TEAM 4 H.A.C.C. Arbitration Brief Filed on Behalf of Ondřej Pavelec 9/17/2012 Introduction Ondrej Pavelec is a professional ice-hockey player who was born in Kladno, Czechoslovakia on August 31, 1987. He measures 6’3” in height and 220 lbs. in weight. He plays as a goaltender. Following the signing of his next NHL Standard Player Contract (SPC), Mr. Pavelec will be entering his sixth NHL season as a twenty-five year old. In terms of experience, Mr. Pavelec has amassed 187 Games Played (GP) in the NHL and is currently ranked second among goalies born in his calendar year behind only three time All-Star Carey Price.1 In relation to his draft class, he is ranked third behind Mr. Price, and Conn Smythe Winner and Stanley Cup Champion, Jonathan Quick.2 Argument We submit that, because of his goaltending pedigree, his length of service and contributions to the club, and most importantly, his statistical accomplishments, and how they compare to similarly situated players, Mr. Pavelec’s value as a professional goaltender in the NHL is higher than $3.9 million dollars per season. Goaltending Pedigree Over the course of his development as a goalie, Mr. Pavelec has achieved several distinguished honours. Most notably, he led the 2007-08 Chicago Wolves to a Calder Cup victory.3 During the 07-08 AHL regular season, Mr. Pavelec had 52 GP and posted a 2.77 Goals Against Average (GAA) along with a .911 Save Percentage (SV%). During the team’s playoff run that year, he improved statistically by dropping his GAA down to 2.34 and boosting his SV% .921. To date, this remains the strongest indicator regarding the issue of whether Mr. Pavelec is capable of carrying a team to a championship. Furthermore, Mr. Pavelec has suited up for his 1 http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/birthyears.cgi?year=1987 2 http://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/NHL_2005_entry.html 3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ond%C5%99ej_Pavelec 1 native Czech Republic in international play at two major tournaments. In 2010, he was a member of the Czech team that won Gold at the World Championships. He only played in one game in which he registered a 3.05 GAA and a .800 SV%.4 While on their face those numbers are unflattering, we submit that the value of the experience of representing one’s national team at a major international tournament can outweigh one’s actual performance. This submission is supported by Mr. Pavelec’s performance at the World Championships the following year, where he had 8 GP and posted a very impressive 1.88 GAA and a .939 SV% while leading his team to a bronze medal victory. We submit that Mr. Pavelec has gained very valuable experience successfully fulfilling his duties as a goaltender in the AHL and on the international stage. In both contexts, he has shown that he can be competitive and successful. Length of Service and Contributions to the Club In the 2005 NHL Entry Draft, Ondrej Pavelec was selected by the now defunct Atlanta Thrashers in the second round, forty-first overall.5 Prior to the 2007-08 season, the Thrashers signed Mr. Pavelec to a three-year two-way Entry Level Contract (ELC) with a total value of $2.55 million. While under this contract, Mr. Pavelec split time between the NHL and AHL, and by the time he reached his third year as a Thrasher, he made an appearance in over half the team’s games in 2009-10.6 The organization expressed their continued interest in his goaltending services by signing him to a two-year one-way contract for the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons with an Average Annual Value of $1.15 million.7 We submit that the Thrashers awarded Mr. Pavelec this contract on the basis of his on-ice production and future potential. We believe he has 4 http://capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=365 5 http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/pavelon01.html 6 http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/pavelon01.html 7 http://capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=365 2 continued to impress statistically and due to his young age still has a lot of room for improvement. Injury History Mr. Pavelec had issues with concussions in 2010, however, since that time he has missed very little playing time due to injury. We believe that Mr. Pavelec’s relatively clean bill of health provides the Jets with assurances that they may not have to over-spend on back up goaltending as some other teams with older or injury prone starters are forced to do. Statistical Analysis The majority of the statistical data that we are focusing on is from the 2011-12 NHL regular season. As it is the most recent data, we believe that it is the most relevant to these negotiations. Statistical analysis for goaltenders can be tricky for a number of reasons: they are a small pool of specialized athletes, not all goalies play the same role on a roster, and a goalie is only as good as the team in front of him, and vice versa. We will attempt to keep this as simple as possible. The following statistics will be considered in evaluating the goaltenders: Career Games Played (CGP), Games Played in most recent season (GP), Winning Percentage (W%), Save Percentage (SV%), Goals Against Average (GAA), Shots Against (SA), and Team Goals For (TGF) Valid Comparable Players The following players are comparable to Mr. Pavelec: Devan Dubnyk, Cory Schneider, and Tuukka Rask. 3 Table A. Goalie Stats 2011-2012 PLAYER AGE CGP GP W% SV% GAA SA TGF O. Pavelec 25 187 68 0.426 0.906 2.91 2036 221 D. Dubnyk 26 101 47 0.425 0.914 2.67 1380 207 C. Schneider 26 68 33 0.606 0.937 1.96 945 241 T. Rask 25 102 23 0.478 0.929 2.05 621 260 Table B. Contractual Status PLAYER YEAR SIGNED $MPY TERM AAV O. Pavelec 2012 > 3.90 1/2 > 3.90 D. Dubnyk 2012 3.25 / 3.75 2 3.50 C. Schneider 2012 3.50 / 4.00 / 4.50 3 4.00 T. Rask 2012 3.50 1 3.50 In analyzing the statistics above, one must be careful not to be seduced by ‘sexy statistics’ such as GAA and SV%. They certainly have their time and place, however, one must keep in mind that there have been many one-season wonder goalies who impressed in these categories and were never able to regain their golden form. We submit that it is more important for an organization to hire a goaltender who will be consistently good than one who is great for a short period of time. In analyzing Mr. Pavelec’s statistical output relative to his peers, our main focus will be directed toward Cory Schneider as he is the only player on that list earning over 4 $3.9 million. Through our analysis we aim to prove that Mr. Pavelec is a better goaltender than Mr. Schneider and therefore deserves to earn at least $4.00 million AAV as he does. Mr. Pavelec played as many games in the 2011-12 regular season as Mr. Schneider has in his entire four-year long NHL career. Statistically, Schneider appears to be a better goalie, having posted impressive numbers in the win percentage, save percentage and goals against average categories. However, having played behind a team that won The President’s Trophy two years in a row, and behind an Olympic Gold medal winner in Roberto Luongo, we submit that Cory Schneider is an untested commodity. If he was able to secure a contract that pays an AAV of $4 million per season, we suggest that Mr. Pavelec should receive a similar award at arbitration as he is a younger goalie with a history of winning under pressure. The differences between starting calibre goalies and back-ups are well documented. Starting goalies are subject to increased media scrutiny, greater pressure to succeed, and require better physical conditioning. It is fairly obvious that Mr. Schneider’s contract was awarded to him on the basis of what he will do in the future rather than what he has done thus far. Following this logic, we believe that Ondrej Pavelec, if surrounded by the Winnipeg Jets with an equally talented roster to Vancouver’s will lead the team deep into the playoffs. He has shown on the international stage and at the AHL level that he is capable of doing so. The same arguments apply when assessing Mr. Pavelec’s value against Tuukka Rask’s. Rask appears to be a more statistically successful goaltender than Pavelec, but he too is inexperienced and has had the privilege of playing for a strong club. As a member of the Boston Bruins’ 2011 Stanley Cup championship winning team, Mr. Rask played exactly 0 games in the playoffs. He had the benefit of playing behind that year’s Conn Smythe winner, Tim Thomas, but whether it was beneficial to him remains to be seen. Even with a competitive roster, that put 5 scored more goals than 26 other teams in the most recent NHL season8, Mr. Rask was not able to win more than half of his games. Admittedly, Tuukka Rask is a very talented young goalie. However, his experience in the NHL is still rather limited as he seen more from the bench than he has from the crease. Despite recent results in Winnipeg, it is clear that the experience and effort shown by Mr.