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Hotel Transactions MarcH 2019 2018 EuropEan HotEl transactions nicolas auer Analyst alexandre rey Analyst HVS.com HVS London and HVS Hodges Ward Elliott HVSHWE.com 7-10 Chandos St, London W1G 9DQ, UK This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, as long as they credit you and license their new creations under the identical terms. Others can download and redistribute your work just like the by-nc-nd license, but they can also translate, make remixes, and produce new stories based on your work. All new work based on yours will carry the same license, so any derivatives will also be non-commercial in nature. Highlights WalDorf astoria EDinburgH – The caledonian Total European hotel transaction volume reached €18.6 billion¹ in 2018. This represents a decrease of 14% on 2017, although it is still the fifth highest annual level ever recorded, only behind 2015, 2017, 2006 and 2007 (see Chart 1); Single assets transacted at a total volume of more than €9.5 billion (51% of the total), falling 23% from 2017, yet still recording the third highest level ever, only behind 2017 and 2016. Portfolio volume² decreased by just 3% from 2017 to The Waldorf Astoria Edinburgh – The Caledonian, comprising 241 rooms, €9 billion (49% of total transaction volume), with was sold in early 2018 for £85 million. HVS Hodges Ward Elliott acted for the split between single assets and portfolios the seller as joint agent. being more balanced than the long-term average ratio of 60:40; The lessening of Asian and European buyers was the main reason for the reduction in transaction to a significant increase in single asset activity volumes in 2018, decreasing by 51% and 19% (+16%), which reached €2.6 billion; against 2017 values, respectively. High-net-worth London remained the leading European hotel individuals (HNWIs) in particular decreased their transaction market with a total volume of around investments in hotels in 2018, spending only €2.1 billion/£1.8 billion in 2018 (-16% year- €116 million (-79%) compared to €554 million on-year), ahead of Dublin with €610 million in 2017. Real estate investment trusts’ (REITs) (+215%). Amsterdam’s €560 million ranked appetite to invest in hotels increased by 9%, the Dutch city in third place (-58%). The largest resulting in a total buyer volume of some volume increase in absolute terms among €1.7 billion in 2018 versus around €1.6 billion European cities was recorded in Ireland’s capital, in 2017. Private equity firms provided the Dublin, which received €416 million more largest amount of capital by buyer type in 2018 (+215%) in transaction volume than in 2017. (€3.9 billion); Germany’s five largest cities – Berlin, Munich, Despite reducing their investments by 17% Hamburg, Cologne and Frankfurt – jointly reached compared to the year before, institutional a transaction volume of more than €2.1 billion investors continued to be net buyers, heavily (+3%); investing in Germany and reaching a total of Moving into 2019, interest rates, staffing €3.1 billion in new investments in 2018; pressures and the UK’s upcoming divorce The UK confirmed its leading role within from the European Union will all influence the Europe, reaching transaction volumes of transactions market. Furthermore, inflation risks €6.2 billion/£5.5 billion (+14%) compared and concerns of a global economic slowdown to 2017’s €5.5 billion/£4.8 billion. Germany and/or market correction might trigger hesitation recorded another strong year, with total in some investors’ minds. investment volume of more than €3.8 billion, solid Year Despite surpassing last year’s volume by 2%, thanks Chart 1: total HotEl invEstment volume 2007-18 turbulence 25 Portfolio Transactions 20 Single Asset Transactions In a year dominated by Brexit 12-year average negotiations, hotel-industry data 15 breaches and escalating US-led trade wars, the European hotel market saw 10 a somewhat slower year in terms of transaction volume, although still the € Billions 5 fifth highest annual level on record. Despite politically tense times across 0 Europe, its economic environment 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 maintained stable interest rates with relatively low exchange rate volatility. Source: HVS – London Office These factors, combined with the globally growing tourism industry, ¹Only transactions that sold for more than €7.5 million are considered in this analysis. 2For mixed-use portfolios, only the hotel components have been included in the totals. 2018 EUropEan Hotel tranSaCtionS | page 2 Chart 2: rEGIONAL sHARE OF TRANSACTION VOLUME 2017-18 18% Other - Southern Europe Other - Western Europe 4% €2.4 billion/£2.1 billion and portfolio activity of 6% 2018 €3.8 billion/£3.4 billion, demonstrating strong Other - CEE & Balkans investor demand despite the political uncertainties 3% (see Chart 2). Other - Nordic & Baltic 5% UK 2% 5% 34% Transaction volume in France decreased by 45% to Netherlands €700 million in 2018, while the Netherlands also 5% 4% 2017 25% 6% saw a significant decrease with €1 billion in 2018 France compared to €1.8 billion in 2017 (-43%). However, 4% 8% 2017 recorded huge growth over 2016 in the 6% Netherlands (+171%) and therefore 2018 was in fact 18% similar to 2016. Spain 21% 23% A large number of corporate mergers & acquisitions Germany (M&As) took place in 2018, which directly or 21% indirectly influenced the European hospitality Source: HVS - London Office landscape. These deals, some of which are outlined below, are not included in our transaction volumes as we solely focus on property-based transactions. have made Europe a sought-after hotel investment The largest M&A deal was completed by Minor market. The decrease in total investment volumes International, a publicly traded Thai company, which was balanced somewhat by a significant increase acquired 94.1% of Spanish operator NH Hotel Group in average price per key, as well as growth in mega in several tranches for a total of around €2.3 billion. portfolio acquisitions. This deal adds some 382 hotels and more than 59,000 Total hotel transactions worth €18.6 billion were rooms to Minor’s portfolio. recorded in Europe in 2018, representing a decrease France’s AccorHotels sold a 57.8% stake of its real of 14%. The decrease in transaction volume was estate arm, AccorInvest, to sovereign wealth funds primarily driven by slightly fewer hotels transacting PIF and GIC, institutional investors Colony NorthStar, combined with smaller assets; 700 assets with an Crédit Agricole Assurances and Amundi as well as average room count of 189 exchanged hands in 2017, other investors, for some €4.6 billion. In addition compared to 695 properties averaging 156 rooms in to this large transaction, AccorHotels also acquired 2018. Single asset transactions saw a 23% decrease in the Swiss Mövenpick Hotels & Resorts group for 2018, while portfolio transactions, which included a €482 million. handful of mega deals, decreased by 3%. However, the average price per key grew by 8% in 2018, reflecting Other major M&A deals included Jin Jiang Hotels’ the higher product quality of the assets transacted as acquisition of HNA Group’s 51.5% stake in Radisson well as growth in values generally. Hospitality as well as Schroders acquiring hotel owner-operator company Algonquin. In most cases, investment demand was supported by the continued strengthening of industry fundamentals Quarterly activity as year-on-year value per room growth in 27 of 33 major markets continued2019 the upwardEuropean trend. Hotel The Total transaction volume in the first quarter of 2018 Valuationimpact this Index had on average values per key is explored in our sister publication was stronger than the year before (+9.5%), reaching some €4.3 billion. The largest part of 2018’s total . deal volume was recorded during Q2, totalling With clouds of uncertainty layered Chart 3: INVESTMENT VOLUME IN 2018 bY QUARTEr over Europe regarding the future relationship between the EU and 25 5 the UK, combined with 2017 having Cumulative Single Asset 23% of Total recorded the second highest level 20 Portfolio 4 of hotel transaction volume on 21% of Total record, most European markets 15 33% of Total 3 saw their transaction volumes 23% of Total decrease somewhat during 2018. 10 2 (€ Billions) The UK and Spain remained the most attractive markets, with a Cumulative Volume (€ Billions ) 5 1 year-on-year increase of 14% and & PortfolioVolume Single Asset a decrease of 22%, respectively. - - Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 The UK posted total volume Source: HVS – London Office of €6.2 billion/£5.5 billion, with single asset deals worth 2018 EUropEan Hotel tranSaCtionS | page 3 STANDARD GRAPHS Chart 4: SINGLE ASSEt INVESTMENT VOLUME 2006-18 €6.1 billion (33%) mainly thanks to 14 500 Single Asset Transaction Volume 450 Blackstone’s acquisition of Spanish of Transactions Number 12 REIT Hispania for €2 billion. Slightly Number of Transactions 400 less than half of the annual transactions 10 350 total occurred in the second half of 300 the year, with 21% of total volume 8 in Q3 and 23% in Q4 (see Chart 3). 250 € Billions 6 Two of the major portfolio deals in H2 200 included the sale of the Principal Hotel 4 150 Portfolio for €942 million/£841 million 100 2 and the Amaris Hilton Portfolio for 50 €364 million/£334 million. - - As noted previously, 2018 featured 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 similarly strong deal volume in terms of Source: HVS – London Office portfolios compared to 2017 (€9 billion in 2018 compared to €9.3 billion in 2017). April 2018 had the largest portfolio deal volume of the entire 28% of European single asset volume, with an 8% year (€2.4 billion), which can mainly be attributed increase in the number of properties sold.
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