Prepared in cooperation with the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority

Application of a Watershed Model (HSPF) for Evaluating Sources and Transport of Pathogen Indicators in the Chino Basin Drainage Area, San Bernardino County,

San Gabriel Mts San Bernardino Co

Los Angeles Co

Chino Basin

Riverside Co

Santa Ana River

Orange Co

Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5219

U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

Application of a Watershed Model (HSPF) for Evaluating Sources and Transport of Pathogen Indicators in the Chino Basin Drainage Area, San Bernardino County, California

By Joseph A. Hevesi, Lorraine E. Flint, Clinton D. Church, and Gregory O. Mendez

In cooperation with Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority

Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5219

U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2011

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Suggested citation: Hevesi, J.A., Flint, L.E., Church, C.D., and Mendez, G.O., 2011, Using a watershed model (HSPF) to evaluate sources and transport of pathogen indicator bacteria in the Chino Basin, San Bernardino County, California: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5219, 148 p. iii

Contents

Abstract...... 1 Introduction...... 2 Background...... 2 Purpose and Scope...... 5 Characteristics of the Chino Basin...... 5 Topography and Geology...... 5 Climate ...... 7 Surface Water and Drainage Network ...... 7 Land Cover and Use...... 9 Water Quality...... 9 Water-Quality-Data Sources and Methods of Collection and Analysis...... 9 Pathogen Indicator Bacteria...... 9 Field Data Collection ...... 11 Supplemental Water-Quality Data...... 14 Analysis of Water-Quality Data...... 19 Data Limitations...... 20 Simulation of Streamflow and Bacteria Transport...... 20 Description of Model...... 20 Subwatershed Delineation...... 25 Input Data...... 25 Channel Reach Data...... 25 Meteorological and Streamflow Data...... 28 Surface Properties and Land Use...... 28 Model Calibration ...... 32 Results from the Streamflow and the Fecal Coliform Models...... 37 Streamflow-Model Calibration and Verification Results...... 37 Chino Creek Subbasin...... 42 Mill Creek Subbasin...... 42 San Antonio Creek Subbasin...... 42 West Branch Cucamonga Creek Subbasin...... 42 San Antonio Dam inflow...... 43 Transport Model Calibration and Verification Results...... 43 Analyses of Storm-Targeted Samples for Storms in Water-Year 2004...... 43 Comparisons of Model Simulations with Supplemental Data from other Studies...... 54 Uncertainties in Modeling a System with Changing Conditions...... 63 iv

Model Application: Evaluation of Contribution to Bacteria Contamination on the Basis of Flow Process and Land Use...... 66 1988–2005 Simulation Results: Summary of Base Case ...... 66 Flow-Process Contributions to Bacteria Contamination...... 72 Contribution of Flow Processes for Selected Storms ...... 73 Concentration Duration Analysis for Flow-Process Contributions...... 75 Flow Processes Contributions to Average Bacteria Concentrations...... 77 Evaluation of Source Area Contribution on the Basis of Land Use...... 80 Land-Use Contributions to Bacteria Concentrations for Selected Storms...... 81 Model Application: Analysis of Basin Response to Possible Climate and Land-Use Changes...... 94 Climate Scenarios...... 94 Development...... 94 Results of Air Temperature Scenarios...... 94 Results of Precipitation Scenarios...... 115 Land-Use Scenarios...... 119 Development...... 119 Results of Land-Use Scenarios...... 122 Applying Results to Develop TMDLs...... 136 Summary and Conclusions...... 138 Acknowledgments...... 141 References Cited...... 141 Appendix 1. Water-Quality Data Collected by the USGS in Water-Year 2004 in the Chino Basin...... 143 v

Figures

1. Regional map of study area and other basins used to study indicator bacteria in and near the Chino Basin, California...... 3 2. Location of study area, model boundary, water bodies, and drains in the Chino Basin, California...... 4 3. Maps of geology and soil units used to develop the HSPF model for the Chino Basin, California...... 6 4. Average monthly precipitation from PRISM for November and January for the Chino Basin, California...... 8 5. Map of land-use and vegetation categories for the Chino Basin, California...... 10 6. Measured hourly stream discharge at gage 11073495 and measured bacteria concentrations at sample site MC for the 11/12/2003–11/13/2003 storm, the 2/2/2004–2/3/2004 storm, and the 2/22/2004–2/23/2004 storm in the Chino Basin, California ...... 13 7. Measured fecal coliform data and measured E. coli, enterococci, and total coliforms for all storm sampling events in the Chino Basin, California...... 16 8. Streamflow hydrographs of and measured fecal coliform bacteria concentrations for water-years 1996–2005 in daily streamflow at gage 11073495 and daily fecal coliform concentrations at site MC, and monthly streamflow at gage 11073360 and daily fecal coliform concentrations at sample site CHIS in the Chino Basin, California...... 18 9. Routing processes represented by the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN code for the simulation of fecal coliform bacteria transport and storage parameters...... 24 10. Base model segmented by average precipitation in January, and delineated hydrologic response units for each reach in the Chino Basin, California...... 26 11. Submodels of basin area upstream of each calibration gage used for hydrologic calibration of the Chino Basin model...... 29 12. Subbasins used in applications of calibrated model in the Chino Basin...... 30 13. Map showing percentage of imperviousness of the Chino Basin, California...... 33 14. Simulated and measured hourly streamflow for February 2004 for the calibration period for Chino Creek gage 11073360 and San Antonio Creek gage 11073300 in the Chino Basin, California...... 38 15. Flow duration curves for simulated and measured streamflow for calibration and verification periods for Chino Creek, Mill Creek, San Antonio Creek, West Branch Cucamonga Creek, and San Antonio Canyon reach in the Chino Basin, California...... 41 16. Simulated and measured storm-flow bacteria concentrations for storm of 11/12/2003–11/13/2003 at site MC, and for storms of 2/2/2004 and 2/22/2004 at sample site INDND, sample site INDD, sample site RECND, sample site RECGC, sample site RECD, sample site RESD, sample site SC, sample site D, and sample site MC reach in the Chino Basin, California...... 45 17. Simulated and measured average bacteria concentrations in the Chino Basin, California, for the water-year 2004 storm and land-use targeted sampling sites used for model calibration ...... 55 vi

18. Simulated streamflow and simulated and measured bacteria concentrations at sample site D, 1996–1998, sample site MC, 2002–2004, sample site CCM2, 2002–2004, sample site CHIS, 2002–2005, sample site IHC, 2002–2005, sample site BVAM, 2002–2004, and sample site PPOC, 2002–2004 in the Chino Basin, California...... 56 19. Simulated and measured average bacteria concentrations in the Chino Basin for all sampling si