Modelling and Simulation for One-Day Cricket
The Canadian Journal of Statistics 143 Vol. 37, No. 2, 2009, Pages 143–160 La revue canadienne de statistique Modelling and simulation for one-day cricket TimB.SWARTZ1*, Paramjit S. GILL2 and Saman MUTHUKUMARANA1 1Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada V5A 1S6 2Mathematics, Statistics and Physics Unit, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada V1V 1V7 Key words and phrases: Bayesian latent variable model; cricket; Markov chain methods; Monte Carlo simulation; sports statistics; WinBUGS. MSC 2000: Primary 62P99; secondary 62F15. Abstract: This article is concerned with the simulation of one-day cricket matches. Given that only a finite number of outcomes can occur on each ball that is bowled, a discrete generator on a finite set is developed where the outcome probabilities are estimated from historical data involving one-day international cricket matches. The probabilities depend on the batsman, the bowler, the number of wickets lost, the number of balls bowled and the innings. The proposed simulator appears to do a reasonable job at producing realistic results. The simulator allows investigators to address complex questions involving one-day cricket matches. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 143–160; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada Resum´ e:´ Cet article porte sur la simulation de matchs de cricket d’une seule journee.´ Etant´ donne´ qu’il y a un nombre fini d’ev´ enements´ possibles a` chaque lancer de balle, un gen´ erateur´ discret. Sur un ensemble fini est developp´ eo´ u` les probabilites´ de chacun des ev´ enements´ sont estimees´ a` partir de donnees´ historiques provenant de matchs de cricket international d’une seule journee.´ Les probabilites´ dependent´ du batteur, du lanceur, du nombre de guichets perdus, du nombre de balles lancees´ et des manches.
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