Bedeviled, Four Times in a Row Jack Styczynski
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From the SelectedWorks of Jack Styczynski November, 2017 Bedeviled, four times in a row Jack Styczynski Available at: https://works.bepress.com/jack_styczynski/ 36/ 24 BASKETBALL TIMES Special Report Basketball Times has evaluated the nation's top programs – those that have won two-thirds of their games over 10 seasons – every five years since 1997. The challengers have changed, but the champions continue to reside at Duke. Bedeviled, four times in a row By Jack Styczynski You might think the coordinator of this project is Overall ranking Head coach ranking and 2007, North Carolina led the way a Duke fan. (Lowest to highest average) (First place votes in parentheses) with 14 players, whereas Kentucky Not true. 1. Duke 3.5 1. Mike Krzyzewski, Duke 339 (7) doubled that in 2017. This is the one Like, really not true. 2. Notre Dame 9.3 2. Jay Wright, Villanova 323 category where it’s understood that 3. Wisconsin 9.5 For the fourth straight time, Duke tops the 3. Tom Izzo, Michigan State 314 (1) major programs will normally have a 4. Gonzaga 10.2 4. Mike Brey, Notre Dame 308 (1) Basketball Times’ semi-decennial analytical ranking 5. Villanova 10.5 5. Mark Few, Gonzaga 304 decided advantage over mid-majors, of Division I programs that have won two-thirds of 6. Davidson 12.2 6. Bob McKillop, Davidson 282 and it’s accepted – even valued – since their games over the past 10 seasons. A record 35 7. Belmont 12.3 7. Bill Self, Kansas 269 players often choose a school based on schools made the cut, with the nearest miss being 8. Michigan State 12.5 8. Roy Williams, North Carolina 258 its ability to produce professionals. Creighton, an agonizing one win short of qualifying. 9. Butler 13.0 9. Sean Miller, Arizona 236 For all categories, ties are awarded All five times the project has been undertaken since 10. Kansas 13.3 10. Rick Byrd, Belmont 227 (1) the preferable ranking. 1997, the “two-thirds criterion” has eliminated no 11. North Carolina 13.7 11. Chris Holtmann, Ohio State 222 The third ranking criterion is the national champions from the previous decade. 12. (tie) Purdue 15.2 12. John Calipari, Kentucky 213 four-class team graduation rate for Saint Mary’s 15.2 This time, that includes the 2010 and 2015 champ. 13. Matt Painter, Purdue 209 incoming freshmen, as listed in the 2017 14. Arizona 15.5 14. Greg Gard, Wisconsin 199 As one project contributor put it, “Although Duke 15. (tie) Florida 16.0 15. Gregg Marshall, Wichita State 193 NCAA graduation rates report. Data are has sold out to the one-and-done culture in order to Xavier 16.0 16. (tie) Mike White, Florida 190 only for the four classes of freshmen on compete for championships, the academic/basketball 17. Ohio State 16.7 Tubby Smith, Memphis 190 athletic scholarship who entered from combination is still the best.” 18. Kentucky 17.5 18. Jim Boeheim, Syracuse 189 2007-10 and indicate the percentage There remain a “fine nine” programs that have 19. BYU 17.7 19. Chris Mack, Xavier 178 graduating within six years. Incoming qualified for every edition of the project. Along 20. Syracuse 19.5 20. Dave Rose, BYU 152 transfers are not included. The numbers with Duke, they are Arizona, Connecticut, Kansas, 21. Wichita State 19.8 21. (tie) Randy Bennett, Saint Mary’s 147 ranged from 100 percent (Belmont) to 7 Kentucky, Murray State, North Carolina, Syracuse 22. UCLA 20.0 Steve Alford, UCLA 147 percent (UCLA). 23. Pittsburgh 20.2 and Xavier. 23. Kevin Stallings, Pittsburgh 137 Given that time frame, it’s 24. VCU 20.8 24. LaVall Jordan, Butler 132 Conversely, eight schools qualified for the first 25. Memphis 21.0 25. Anthony Grant, Dayton 129 probably too soon to assess the full time in 2017. Three more – New Mexico, Purdue 26. Louisville 21.2 26. Kevin Ollie, Connecticut 120 effect of the “one-and-done” era on and UCLA – returned to the ranks after being absent 27. Vermont 21.8 27. John Becker, Vermont 113 graduation rates. Programs embracing since 2002. Creighton was one of nine dropping off 28. Dayton 22.0 28. Scott Drew, Baylor 92 the recruiting strategy might still see the list. 29. Baylor 24.0 29. Paul Weir, New Mexico 91 their rates decline in future years. With that, it’s time to rank 2017’s top programs 30. Stephen F. Austin 24.5 30. Mike Rhoades, VCU 90 Absent a coaching change or scandal, using six equally weighted criteria. 31. Connecticut 24.7 31. Matt McMahon, Murray State 85 this is the only category where Duke The first ranking criterion is the 10-year winning 32. Murray State 25.0 32. John Groce, Akron 71 seems even the least bit vulnerable 33. New Mexico 25.8 percentage used to determine the project qualifiers. 33. Kyle Keller, Stephen F. Austin 57 going forward. 34. San Diego State 26.2 34. Brian Dutcher, San Diego State 55 Kansas held on to the top spot, winning better than 35. Akron 30.7 35. David Padgett, Louisville 39 The fourth ranking criterion is 84 percent of its games, a mark bested only by Duke the academic peer assessment score, in the 2007 edition. The Jayhawks have finished the NCAA over the past decade. Had the wins been as listed in the U.S. News & World Report 2017 either first or second in this category in each of these subtracted, all three still would have qualified for the analysis of America’s Best Colleges. This criterion projects. project, but their rankings in this category would have complements a school’s graduation rate with the Perhaps most surprising is how far some first- been lower. (perceived) value of its diploma. A peer assessment time qualifiers rocketed up the list. Stephen F. The second-ranking criterion is the number of score of 5.0 is the highest possible. Austin, Wichita State and Villanova each ranked in former players in the NBA, as listed on team rosters Aside from determining which schools have the the top 10, all winning closer to three-quarters of on Oct. 12. Not surprisingly, Kentucky was the leader 10-year winning percentage necessary to qualify, their games. for the second straight time, but the “one-and-done” the final two ranking criteria comprise the most For Arizona, Memphis and Syracuse, their era has had a huge effect on the number at the top. anticipated part of the project. A panel of 10 writers winning percentages include victories vacated by In the first three editions of the project in 1997, 2002 from Basketball Times and the USBWA ranked the BASKETBALL TIMES 25 head coaches and the perceived “cleanliness” of the “Two years ago, he was the director of basketball programs must get their hands dirty to recruit the best programs. operations,” another said. “He may end up being a players in the country, looking very wise when the Coaches were assessed both on their ability very good coach, but there isn’t much of a sample size FBI news broke. And more headlines are expected, to win and their suitability to guide young men. to rate him very high at the moment.” maybe even by the time you read this. There’s no contention these are the best 35 coaches “This isn’t meant as a personal indictment of With the six ranking criteria compiled, the overall in America, although it should be noted that the nine David Padgett,” added a third voter. “I just think rankings were determined. Each school’s average active coaches who’ve won a national championship he’s been thrust into a terrible situation. I have grave rank was computed by adding together its rankings are all included. concerns for how the administration has responded in the various categories and dividing by six. The “Cleanliness” was defined as a program’s ability to to recent scandals. If Padgett were at another school, 35 programs are ranked in order of lowest to highest avoid run-ins with the NCAA (or practices considered maybe I would allow my son to play for him, but average rank, and once again, Duke left everyone else risky in that regard) and produce upstanding citizens Padgett’s at Louisville, and between the stripper “bedeviled,” this time by the largest margin in project amongst its players. scandal and the recent FBI revelations, I can’t think history. The criteria are subjective, but discreet polls of a program where I’d have more concerns for my So as we conclude the 2017 edition and look are designed to reduce individual bias. Points were son’s welfare.” ahead to 2022, several questions come to mind. awarded on a sliding scale, from 35 points for a first- In the cleanliness poll, Davidson and Butler With its investigation ongoing, will the FBI place vote to one point for a last-place vote, with 350 swapped the top two positions from the previous totally scramble the college basketball power being the highest possible cumulative score. edition. structure? Special thanks to Nicole Auerbach, Rick Most notable in this category was the precipitous Either way, who’s most susceptible to falling from Bozich, Ken Davis, Blair Kerkhoff, Angela Lento, drop of North Carolina. Once ranked among the the “fine nine” programs? Syracuse, as the conference Mike Lopresti, Randy McClure, Kevin Winning percentage NBA players Federal Graduation Rate USNWR academic peer Program cleanliness (First- (2007-2010 entering classes) assessment (On a 5.0 scale) place votes in parentheses) McNamara, Mike Waters (First-time qualifiers in bold) (As of Oct.