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From the SelectedWorks of Jack Styczynski

November, 2017

Bedeviled, four times in a row Jack Styczynski

Available at: https://works.bepress.com/jack_styczynski/

36/ 24 TIMES

Special Report

Basketball Times has evaluated the nation's top programs – those that have won two-thirds of their games over 10 seasons – every five years since 1997. The challengers have changed, but the champions continue to reside at Duke. Bedeviled, four times in a row

By Jack Styczynski

You might think the coordinator of this project is Overall ranking Head coach ranking and 2007, North Carolina led the way a Duke fan. (Lowest to highest average) (First place votes in parentheses) with 14 players, whereas Kentucky Not true. 1. Duke 3.5 1. , Duke 339 (7) doubled that in 2017. This is the one Like, really not true. 2. Notre Dame 9.3 2. , Villanova 323 category where it’s understood that 3. Wisconsin 9.5 For the fourth straight time, Duke tops the 3. , Michigan State 314 (1) major programs will normally have a 4. Gonzaga 10.2 4. , Notre Dame 308 (1) ’ semi-decennial analytical ranking 5. Villanova 10.5 5. , Gonzaga 304 decided advantage over mid-majors, of Division I programs that have won two-thirds of 6. Davidson 12.2 6. Bob McKillop, Davidson 282 and it’s accepted – even valued – since their games over the past 10 seasons. A record 35 7. Belmont 12.3 7. , Kansas 269 players often choose a school based on schools made the cut, with the nearest miss being 8. Michigan State 12.5 8. Roy Williams, North Carolina 258 its ability to produce professionals. Creighton, an agonizing one win short of qualifying. 9. Butler 13.0 9. , Arizona 236 For all categories, ties are awarded All five times the project has been undertaken since 10. Kansas 13.3 10. , Belmont 227 (1) the preferable ranking. 1997, the “two-thirds criterion” has eliminated no 11. North Carolina 13.7 11. , Ohio State 222 The third ranking criterion is the national champions from the previous decade. 12. (tie) Purdue 15.2 12. , Kentucky 213 four-class team graduation rate for Saint Mary’s 15.2 This time, that includes the 2010 and 2015 champ. 13. , Purdue 209 incoming freshmen, as listed in the 2017 14. Arizona 15.5 14. , Wisconsin 199 As one project contributor put it, “Although Duke 15. (tie) Florida 16.0 15. , Wichita State 193 NCAA graduation rates report. Data are has sold out to the one-and-done culture in order to Xavier 16.0 16. (tie) , Florida 190 only for the four classes of freshmen on compete for championships, the academic/basketball 17. Ohio State 16.7 , Memphis 190 athletic scholarship who entered from combination is still the best.” 18. Kentucky 17.5 18. , Syracuse 189 2007-10 and indicate the percentage There remain a “fine nine” programs that have 19. BYU 17.7 19. , Xavier 178 graduating within six years. Incoming qualified for every edition of the project. Along 20. Syracuse 19.5 20. Dave Rose, BYU 152 transfers are not included. The numbers with Duke, they are Arizona, Connecticut, Kansas, 21. Wichita State 19.8 21. (tie) , Saint Mary’s 147 ranged from 100 percent (Belmont) to 7 Kentucky, Murray State, North Carolina, Syracuse 22. UCLA 20.0 Steve Alford, UCLA 147 percent (UCLA). 23. Pittsburgh 20.2 and Xavier. 23. , Pittsburgh 137 Given that time frame, it’s 24. VCU 20.8 24. LaVall Jordan, Butler 132 Conversely, eight schools qualified for the first 25. Memphis 21.0 25. , Dayton 129 probably too soon to assess the full time in 2017. Three more – New Mexico, Purdue 26. Louisville 21.2 26. Kevin Ollie, Connecticut 120 effect of the “one-and-done” era on and UCLA – returned to the ranks after being absent 27. Vermont 21.8 27. , Vermont 113 graduation rates. Programs embracing since 2002. Creighton was one of nine dropping off 28. Dayton 22.0 28. , Baylor 92 the recruiting strategy might still see the list. 29. Baylor 24.0 29. Paul Weir, New Mexico 91 their rates decline in future years. With that, it’s time to rank 2017’s top programs 30. Stephen F. Austin 24.5 30. , VCU 90 Absent a coaching change or scandal, using six equally weighted criteria. 31. Connecticut 24.7 31. Matt McMahon, Murray State 85 this is the only category where Duke The first ranking criterion is the 10-year winning 32. Murray State 25.0 32. , Akron 71 seems even the least bit vulnerable 33. New Mexico 25.8 percentage used to determine the project qualifiers. 33. Kyle Keller, Stephen F. Austin 57 going forward. 34. San Diego State 26.2 34. Brian Dutcher, San Diego State 55 Kansas held on to the top spot, winning better than 35. Akron 30.7 35. , Louisville 39 The fourth ranking criterion is 84 percent of its games, a mark bested only by Duke the academic peer assessment score, in the 2007 edition. The Jayhawks have finished the NCAA over the past decade. Had the wins been as listed in the U.S. News & World Report 2017 either first or second in this category in each of these subtracted, all three still would have qualified for the analysis of America’s Best Colleges. This criterion projects. project, but their rankings in this category would have complements a school’s graduation rate with the Perhaps most surprising is how far some first- been lower. (perceived) value of its diploma. A peer assessment time qualifiers rocketed up the list. Stephen F. The second-ranking criterion is the number of score of 5.0 is the highest possible. Austin, Wichita State and Villanova each ranked in former players in the NBA, as listed on team rosters Aside from determining which schools have the the top 10, all winning closer to three-quarters of on Oct. 12. Not surprisingly, Kentucky was the leader 10-year winning percentage necessary to qualify, their games. for the second straight time, but the “one-and-done” the final two ranking criteria comprise the most For Arizona, Memphis and Syracuse, their era has had a huge effect on the number at the top. anticipated part of the project. A panel of 10 writers winning percentages include victories vacated by In the first three editions of the project in 1997, 2002 from Basketball Times and the USBWA ranked the BASKETBALL TIMES 25

head coaches and the perceived “cleanliness” of the “Two years ago, he was the director of basketball programs must get their hands dirty to recruit the best programs. operations,” another said. “He may end up being a players in the country, looking very wise when the Coaches were assessed both on their ability very good coach, but there isn’t much of a sample size FBI news broke. And more headlines are expected, to win and their suitability to guide young men. to rate him very high at the moment.” maybe even by the time you read this. There’s no contention these are the best 35 coaches “This isn’t meant as a personal indictment of With the six ranking criteria compiled, the overall in America, although it should be noted that the nine David Padgett,” added a third voter. “I just think rankings were determined. Each school’s average active coaches who’ve won a national championship he’s been thrust into a terrible situation. I have grave rank was computed by adding together its rankings are all included. concerns for how the administration has responded in the various categories and dividing by six. The “Cleanliness” was defined as a program’s ability to to recent scandals. If Padgett were at another school, 35 programs are ranked in order of lowest to highest avoid run-ins with the NCAA (or practices considered maybe I would allow my son to play for him, but average rank, and once again, Duke left everyone else risky in that regard) and produce upstanding citizens Padgett’s at Louisville, and between the stripper “bedeviled,” this time by the largest margin in project amongst its players. scandal and the recent FBI revelations, I can’t think history. The criteria are subjective, but discreet polls of a program where I’d have more concerns for my So as we conclude the 2017 edition and look are designed to reduce individual bias. Points were son’s welfare.” ahead to 2022, several questions come to mind. awarded on a sliding scale, from 35 points for a first- In the cleanliness poll, Davidson and Butler With its investigation ongoing, will the FBI place vote to one point for a last-place vote, with 350 swapped the top two positions from the previous totally scramble the power being the highest possible cumulative score. edition. structure? Special thanks to Nicole Auerbach, Rick Most notable in this category was the precipitous Either way, who’s most susceptible to falling from Bozich, Ken Davis, Blair Kerkhoff, Angela Lento, drop of North Carolina. Once ranked among the the “fine nine” programs? Syracuse, as the conference Mike Lopresti, Randy McClure, Kevin Winning percentage NBA players Federal Graduation Rate USNWR academic peer Program cleanliness (First- (2007-2010 entering classes) assessment (On a 5.0 scale) place votes in parentheses) McNamara, Mike Waters (First-time qualifiers in bold) (As of Oct. 12) 1. Kansas .841 1. Kentucky 28 1. Belmont 100% 1. Duke 4.4 1. Davidson 310 (1) and Dick “Hoops” Weiss 2. Gonzaga .827 2. Duke 24 2. Davidson 82% 2. Davidson 4.2 2. Butler 307 (3) for serving on the 2017 3. Duke .811 3. Kansas 18 Notre Dame 82% UCLA 4.2 3. Notre Dame 296 (2) panel. Four of them were 4. Kentucky .783 4. North Carolina 17 4. Purdue 79% 4. Butler 4.1 4. Belmont 295 (1) first-time participants. 5. Saint Mary’s .778 5. UCLA 16 Vermont 79% 5. North Carolina 4.0 5. Villanova 294 Kerkhoff and McNamara 6. North Carolina .775 6. Arizona 14 6. Wisconsin 77% Notre Dame 4.0 6. Gonzaga 290 each participated three 7. Louisville .763 7. Syracuse 11 7. BYU 67% Wisconsin 4.0 7. Duke 274 (2) times before, Bozich 8. Stephen F. Austin .754 8. Michigan State 9 Butler 67% 8. Gonzaga 3.9 8. Wisconsin 269 twice, and Davis, Waters 9. Wichita State .744 Connecticut 9 Dayton 67% 9. Ohio State 3.8 9. Michigan State 251 (1) 10. Villanova .741 Duke 67% Xavier 3.8 Vermont 251 and Weiss once. 10. Florida 8 11. Wisconsin .739 11. Louisville 7 Saint Mary’s 67% 11. Belmont 3.7 11. BYU 250 In the coaching 12. San Diego State .738 Villanova 7 12. Louisville 64% Purdue 3.7 12. Purdue 205 poll, Duke’s Mike 13. BYU .737 13. Baylor 6 Xavier 64% 13. Florida 3.6 13. Dayton 204 Krzyzewski reclaimed 14. Memphis .7364 Wisconsin 6 14. VCU 63% 14. Arizona 3.5 14. Ohio State 200 the top spot he lost to 15. VCU .736 15. Gonzaga 5 15. Villanova 60% Michigan State 3.5 15. Florida 199 Michigan State’s Tom 16. Arizona .732 16. Notre Dame 4 16. Memphis 57% 16. Pittsburgh 3.5 16. Xavier 185 Izzo in the 2012 edition, 17. Michigan State .729 Ohio State 4 Pittsburgh 57% 17. Saint Mary’s 3.4 17. Pittsburgh 179 garnering seven of 10 18. Syracuse .725 Xavier 4 18. New Mexico 53% 18. Kansas 3.3 18. Murray State 170 first place votes. “The 19. Butler .720 19. Memphis 3 19. Arizona 47% Syracuse 3.3 19. Saint Mary’s 165 20. Florida 44% 20. Baylor 3.2 20. VCU 163 Blue Devils may be easy 20. Ohio State .7171 Purdue 3 21. Belmont .7169 VCU 3 Wichita State 44% Connecticut 3.2 Wichita State 163 to hate by fans across 22. Florida .704 22. Butler 2 22. Baylor 42% Villanova 3.2 22. Stephen F. Austin 160 America, but there 23. Murray State .697 Murray State 2 23. Syracuse 40% 23. BYU 3.1 23. Akron 158 can be no argument 24. Xavier .696 Pittsburgh 2 24. Michigan State 38% Murray State 3.1 24. Kansas 155 regarding Coach K,” 25. New Mexico .690 Saint Mary’s 2 25. Stephen F. Austin 36% 25. Kentucky 3.0 25. New Mexico 136 commented one panelist. 26. Notre Dame .688 Wichita State 2 Gonzaga 36% Vermont 3.0 26. San Diego State 129 First-time entrant 27. Baylor .6864 27. Belmont 1 27. Kansas 33% 27. Louisville 2.8 27. UCLA 103 Jay Wright of Villanova 28. Dayton .686 Davidson 1 28. North Carolina 31% San Diego State 2.8 28. Memphis 89 actually pushed Izzo 29. Pittsburgh .685 Dayton 1 29. Connecticut 29% Stephen F. Austin 2.8 29. Arizona 86 30. Ohio State 27% VCU 2.8 30. Kentucky 82 down one more spot, 30. UCLA .682 New Mexico 1 31. Akron .679 San Diego State 1 31. Akron 25% 31. New Mexico 2.7 31. North Carolina 81 placing second. “The 32. Purdue .678 32. Akron 0 San Diego State 25% 32. Dayton 2.6 32. Connecticut 78 new king of the Big 33. Connecticut .676 BYU 0 33. Kentucky 22% 33. Memphis 2.4 33. Syracuse 64 East is getting the job 34. Vermont .670 Stephen F. Austin 0 Murray State 22% Wichita State 2.4 34. Baylor 39 done the right way,” said 35. Davidson .669 Vermont 0 35. UCLA 7% 35. Akron 2.2 35. Louisville 20 one voter. “As a bonus, maybe he could pass along his sense of fashion,” cleanest programs qualifying for this project, the Tar change takes further hold? Connecticut, as the Jim quipped another. Heels had fallen to mid-pack by 2012 and are now Calhoun era fades from view? Another debut entrant, Notre Dame’s Mike near the bottom of the list, no doubt due to the school’s Speaking of which, could the 2014 Huskies be Brey, finished fourth, including a first-place vote. much-publicized academic scandal and subsequent the first “champion from the previous decade” not to “The program is classy, and so is he,” said that NCAA investigation. qualify for the project? panelist. “It’d be a good place for a son to spend Louisville finished last, which was no surprise Can Iona maintain a pace under Tim Cluess to four years.” given that the Cardinals face having many wins – give the MAAC its maiden representative among the Kentucky’s John Calipari and Xavier’s Chris and possibly a national championship – vacated by top programs? And on the subject of breakthrough Mack made the biggest leaps in the last five years, the NCAA. In fact, that placement came even before candidates, how about Oregon under , jumping 13 and 12 spots respectively. For the former, additional recruiting improprieties were alleged as Virginia under Tony Bennett or West Virginia under it might be an indication the “one-and-done” recruiting part of the aforementioned federal investigation. ? strategy is becoming less controversial. While Louisville had no further to fall in the poll, Last but not least, will Duke continue to torture Louisville interim coach David Padgett finished Arizona dropped from 12th to 29th after the panel the project coordinator? last after the panel was asked to adjust an earlier vote was permitted to adjust rankings following the Another 260 weeks will tell. that put predecessor 20th prior to a federal arrest of Wildcats assistant coach Book Richardson The 2017 edition of “Top Programs in America” bribery investigation that prompted the switch. Most on bribery and fraud charges as a result of the same is dedicated to the memory of long-time panelist felt Padgett didn’t have enough of a track record to investigation. George Rodecker. To view previous editions back to place anywhere else. One put him at the bottom with Prior to that, one prescient panelist admitted 1997, please visit https://works.bepress.com/jack_ an asterisk, believing there was nothing to base it on. to ranking on the theory that championship-caliber styczynski/.