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Strategic Market Analysis Final Report 130 Newport Center Drive, Suite 230 Newport Beach, California 92660 Phone 949.717.6450 Fax 949.717.6444 STRATEGIC MARKET ANALYSIS OF RETAIL, FINAL REPORT PREPARED FOR: OFFICE AND RESIDENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT DECEMBER 16, 2010 CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY OPPORTUNITIES FOR A 250-ACRE AREA AT (DATA AS OF SEPTEMBER 2010) EUCLID AND INTERSTATE-405 IN FOUNTAIN VALLEY, CALIFORNIA The Concord Group TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MEMORANDUM EXHIBIT PACKAGE I. OVERVIEW 1. Regional Location 2. Local Setting 3. S.W.O.T. Analysis 4. Programming Criteria 5. Employment 6. Demographic Trends 7. For-Sale Housing Metrics 8. Apartment Metrics 9. Retail Metrics 10. Office Metrics 11. Flex Metrics II. FOR-SALE RESIDENTIAL MARKET 1. Building Permits 2. Home Closings 3. Median Closing Prices 4. Price/Rent Projection 5. Housing Distress 6. Affordability 7. Location of Key For-Sale Comparables 8. Planned and Proposed Projects – For-Sale Residential 9. For-Sale Housing Demand CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY PAGE 1 DECEMBER 16, 2010 10095.00 The Concord Group III. APARTMENT MARKET 1. Building Permits 2. Apartment Inventory and Completions 3. Apartment Vacancy 4. Apartment Effective Rent 5. Location of Key Apartment Communities 6. Planned and Proposed Projects – Apartments 7. Apartment Demand IV. RETAIL MARKET 1. Traffic Counts 2. Retail Inventory and Completions 3. Retail Absorption and Vacancy 4. Retail Lease Rates 5. Location of Key Retail Centers 6. Projected Annual Demand for Retail Space 7. Retail Opportunity/Gap Analysis 8. Potential Internally Generated Retail Demand 9. Planned and Proposed Projects – Retail V. OFFICE MARKET 1. Office Inventory and Completions 2. Office Absorption and Vacancy 3. Office Lease Rates 4. Location of Key Office Nodes 5. Planned and Proposed Projects – Office 6. Demand/Supply Comparison – Office 7. Office Demand CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY PAGE 2 DECEMBER 16, 2010 10095.00 The Concord Group VI. FLEX MARKET 1. Flex Inventory and Completions 2. Flex Vacancy 3. Flex Lease Rates 4. Location of Key Flex Nodes 5. Planned and Proposed Projects – Flex 6. Demand/Supply Comparison – Flex 7. Flex Demand APPENDIX A. For-Sale Residential Demand Model B. Apartment Demand Model C. Household Income Distribution D. Age Distribution E. Home Ownership F. Housing Turnover G. Household Size CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY PAGE 3 DECEMBER 16, 2010 10095.00 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Concord Group Executive Summary The Industrial Area Redevelopment Project Area is generally located in the east/southeast portion of the City of Fountain Valley (“City”) along the Santa Ana River Flood Control Channel. Since the 1980s, there have been numerous additions and improvements in the area as a result of Agency for Community Development (“Agency”) efforts. While businesses such as Costco, the Southpark Business Center, Fry’s, etc. have been successful, the majority of the southern portion of the Industrial Area Redevelopment Project Area (“Project Area” – please see the map on Page 2 for exact boundaries) remains underutilized. As a first step in the evaluation of measures and policies the Agency could potentially utilize to encourage redevelopment, the City first engaged The Concord Group (“TCG”) in August 2010 to conduct a Strategic Market Analysis leading to market-driven recommendations relative to the highest and best mix of uses in the Project Area. The analysis is intended to serve as a foundation for Agency policy decisions and further planning efforts to achieve the recommended vision. This executive summary provides a high-level overview of the findings, conclusions and recommendations resulting from the Strategic Market Analysis. TCG evaluated current and projected residential, retail and office/flex market conditions in the Project Area and greater Fountain Valley market area, conducted surveys of comparable and analogous developments, identified the overall scale of redevelopment opportunities and recommended a vision for the area to be further analyzed via physical planning and implementation strategies. Please refer to the memorandum and accompanying exhibit package that follow for further detail on the analyses TCG conducted to reach our conclusions. Key Findings & Conclusions • The Project Area represents a strong redevelopment opportunity, with the market potential for a mixed-use, pedestrian-friendly environment energized by retail and apartment development in the near- to mid-term (3-5 years), with for-sale residential and supporting office uses incorporated as new development begins to occur and the overall economy recovers: o Successful anchors already in place (Hyundai, Fry’s, Costco, etc.), Hyundai’s planned expansion and significant potential for additional retail development in key categories provide the foundation for a more focused sense of place and destination location for the surrounding daytime and future nighttime population o Residential uses create local activity and generate additional retail demand o Interesting public spaces to create a more desirable location for patrons/residents to frequent and walkabout o Ability to redevelop a significant sized area with a cohesive vision o Close proximity to major transportation options provides easy access and a high degree of visibility o Strong demographics – Fountain Valley is significantly more affluent than Orange County as a whole o Opportunity to become a “place to go” within the City CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY December 16, 2010 Page 1 10095.00 The Concord Group Southern Portion of the Industrial Area Redevelopment Project Area Net Developable Acreage North Portion: Approx. 80 Acres (excl. Hyundai/Fry's) South Portion: Approx. 75 Acres 6 Acres Hyundai 17 Acres 25 Acres 37 Acres Fry's 7.5 Acres 20 Acres 75 Acres CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY December 16, 2010 Page 2 10095.00 The Concord Group • Although economic conditions are unfavorable at this time, the underlying fundamentals in Orange County and the Fountain Valley market area remain generally strong, especially in key product types: o Job market projected to improve in 2011 and accelerate into 2012, with improvement each year through 2015 o Consensus forecasts project for-sale values to return to growth in 2012, while retail and apartment vacancies and values have held-up relatively well o Significant retail under-supply within a five-mile radius provides opportunities to capture unmet demand, particularly in categories that fit well with the Project Area vision – specialty foodstores, entertainment uses, neighborhood-level home centers, “pubs & clubs”, etc. o No new market-rate, non-age restricted apartment product has been added in Fountain Valley for 15+ years, creating an opportunity to bring new rental stock to an emerging area and create a “captive audience” for new stores and internally- generated retail demand • Despite the overall strong opportunity the Project Area represents, there are some market and regulatory constraints exist that must be addressed: o Historically high office vacancies with new speculative construction demand at least seven years out o Very few land trades in the local area, with the majority of sales occurring and depressed prices o The existing M-1 Light Manufacturing zoning limits potential retail redevelopment scenarios o Fragmented ownership patterns and lack of incentives to property owners for participating in any redevelopment efforts • Based on the results of our market-based analyses, TCG identified the following scale of opportunity for the Project Area. The figures below represent the “stabilized supportable” opportunity (i.e. assumes stabilized market/economic conditions, as well as the appropriate regulatory policies/incentives in place), and also do not include Hyundai’s expansion: o Retail: 1MM+ square feet, equivalent to approximately 75+ acres (approximately 0.3 “F.A.R.” or “floor-to-area ratio”) Neighborhood/community level, focusing on tenants in key opportunity categories Potential for additional internally generated demand from Project Area residents o Apartments: 300-350 units, equivalent to approximately 8.5-10 acres (approximately 35 units/acre) Rental and retail product should be incorporated first given relative market health Residential base is crucial to activating the Project Area and help further create a sense of place o Attached for-sale residential: 200+ units, equivalent to 12.5+ acres (approximately 16 units/acre) Incorporated after Project Area redevelopment efforts are underway Mixed-use, pedestrian friendly vision will help drive higher home values o Office/Flex: 25K-50K+ square feet, equivalent to 1-4 acres (approximately 0.3 “F.A.R.” or “floor-to-area ratio”) Limited opportunity in the mid-term due to economic downturn and high vacancy levels Ancillary/professional office opportunities in longer-term in relation to Hyundai expansion CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY December 16, 2010 Page 3 10095.00 The Concord Group Implementation & Next Steps • To create the market-driven vision outlined above, further physical land planning and regulatory/zoning issues will need to be analyzed and evaluated in order to continue the process of creating a cohesive overarching vision for the Project Area that will produce a more pedestrian-friendly focus, thus lessening the “one-stop then leave” perception of the area. Issues to be addressed include, but are not limited to: o Create a land plan that physically lays-out the vision for the Project Area, including locations for the recommended residential and additional commercial uses, public spaces that promote walkability, etc. o Make a
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