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Climate Ready Grampians

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Climate Ready Grampians CLIMATE-READY VICTORIA GRAMPIANS How climate change will affect the Wimmera Southern Mallee and Central Highlands and how you can be climate-ready The Grampians region has already GRAMPIANS HAS BEEN GETTING WARMER AND DRIER. become warmer and drier – a climate IN THE FUTURE THE REGION CAN EXPECT: trend likely to continue into the future. temperatures to continue more hot days and Local residents, businesses and to increase year round warm spells communities are changing the way they do things in response. Getting less rainfall in autumn, winter fewer frosts and spring climate-ready involves understanding how climate change is likely to affect more frequent and more harsher fire weather and you and your region, and working intense downpours longer fire seasons out ways to adapt. Everyone can contribute to the Grampians region’s climate-ready future. HOW WILL THESE CHANGES AFFECT YOU, AND WHAT CAN YOU DO ABOUT THEM? This publication highlights the impacts climate change will have on the Grampians region. It gives examples of how people are already becoming climate-ready, with links to more detailed information. While this publication is about adapting to climate change, reducing your carbon emissions by reducing energy use and switching to renewable energy sources is also important in getting climate-ready. For more information on reducing your emissions, visit www.climatechange.vic.gov.au. OUR CHANGING CLIMATE YARRIAMBIACK Hopetoun GRAMPIANS AT A GLANCE HINDMARSH local government 2 Warracknabeal 48 618 km Nhill 11 areas Kaniva 21% St Arnaud of the WEST Horsham state approximately WIMMERA NORTHERN HORSHAM GRAMPIANS 224 000 Stawell 4% of the state Avoca Edenhope Great Western Ararat PYRENEES HEPBURN Daylesford ARARAT Beaufort Ballarat MOORABOOL Bacchus Marsh BALLARAT GOLDEN PLAINS Bannockburn RECENT CLIMATE IT’S GETTING WARMER AND DRIER Over the past 100 years, global surface air temperatures have Summers are warm to hot in the Grampians region, with risen by almost 1°C. Both the atmosphere and the oceans have an average maximum temperature of around 27 to 30°C in warmed. Human activity is causing climate change, through our the west and 25°C in the east. In winter, average maximum release of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, temperatures in the west are mostly around 13 to 15°C and land use change and agriculture. Atmospheric concentrations of around 10°C in the east. Frosts are common. Average annual carbon dioxide are now more than 40% higher than they were rainfall varies from up to 1000 mm in the Grampians to as low before industrialisation. as 300 mm in the northern plains. Generally, rainfall is greatest In the Grampians region, the rate of warming increased since in winter and spring. 1960. For more information about some of the drivers of Victoria’s On average, rainfall has declined since the 1960s, especially in climate, visit the Climatedogs website. autumn. The harsh Millennium Drought (1996 to 2009) ended with two of the wettest years on record in 2010–11. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE Temperature change Our climate varies – it always has and always will. This Rainfall change in the Grampians region since 1950 climate variability means that some periods are cooler and in the Grampians o wetter than average (as was the case in the 1970s), while region since 1950 0.6-0.8 C others are hotter and drier (such as during the Millennium Drought, 1996–2009). However, due to climate change, 0.8-1.0oC 0-100 mm the long-term average is changing. Future climate will be 1.0-1.2oC different from that in the past. 1.2-1.4oC 1.4-1.6oC 200-300 mm 100-120 mm 2 HOW DO WE GET CLIMATE-READY? GRAMPIANS CLIMATE RISKS Being climate-ready in the Grampians region MORE HARSHER days of fire weather involves knowing the climate risks and impacts extreme heat for the region, and making changes so that we can take advantage of the opportunities and MORE LESS frequent and intense reduce the negative impacts. rainfall heavy downpours GETTING CLIMATE-READY AT A GLANCE Primary Infrastructure Tourism Health and Environment production community i rainfall h fire weather h temperature h heatwaves i rainfall h temperature h flooding h fire weather h flooding h fire weather h hot days h hot days h heatwaves h fire weather h hot days h fire weather h heatwaves h solar radiation KEY CLIMATE RISKS KEY CLIMATE Earlier flowering and Increased flood Increased threats to More stress on health Amplification of planting times damage tourism infrastructure and emergency services existing threats to flora and fauna Changed distribution Increased maintenance Damage to popular More heat-related of pests and diseases costs environmental sites deaths, particularly Changes to habitat among the elderly and Farm business Increased disruption to Risks to tourists Altered disturbance disadvantaged affected by bushfire services unfamiliar with regimes conditions Mental health effects Changes in pasture Changing dynamics of growth Changes in disease invasive species POTENTIAL IMPACTS occurrence Reduced water security Consider enterprise Consider future climate Communicate risk to Use cost-effective Target new and diversification when locating new visitors pedestal fans in emerging diseases and infrastructure heatwaves pests Establish shelter belts Implement emergency to increase shade Consider heat planning for tourist Use existing social Increase green urban resilience in transport sites networks to support infrastructure and Diversify feed and upgrades vulnerable community urban biodiversity fodder sources Undertake business members Increase road heights continuity planning Link habitats to allow Plan for a secure water Implement/use rural species to move supply Increase stormwater Multi-skill staff mental health care capacity Consider moving Regularly access long Consider enterprise programs selected populations and medium range Diversify sources of diversification CLIMATE-READY ACTIONS CLIMATE-READY Undertake emergency to new areas outlooks, as well as power and water, Prepare for changing planning for schools, short range weather including decentralised seasonal demand hospitals, services forecasts technologies 3 GETTING CLIMATE-READY HOW CLIMATE-READY ARE YOU? CLIMATE-READY NOW Getting climate-ready is an ongoing process, and there’s no Victorians have always been good at managing the ups and single recipe for success. Many of the risks we face are not downs of climate. Now that we have a clearer picture of the new. However, there are likely to be changes in duration, way in which climate is likely to change in future, there’s lots frequency and severity of some weather events, as well as that we can do to become climate-ready. Decisions we make changes to the climate. now will affect how well we cope with the changing climate, To determine what’s important to you and what climate change which in turn will affect future economic and employment responses might work for your situation, consider these conditions. Decisions range from simple to complex, and questions: some will need to be made sooner than others. Your decisions may depend on the local climate in your part of the region. c How might you – your health, property, business, community, industry – be affected by: There are many good examples of communities in your • higher temperatures and more frequent heatwaves? region and in Victoria preparing for and adapting to climate change. The links you directly to the source or • less autumn, winter and spring rainfall, more time in visit www.climatechange.vic.gov.au for a full list of links. drought, decreased water availability or flooding? • harsher fire weather? c How might your services, suppliers, clients or customers PRIMARY PRODUCTION be affected? The north of the region is highly dependent on agriculture, c Are you making any long-term decisions now that will be which represents up to 45% of employment in some areas. impacted by future climate change? Agriculture is centred on dryland farming, including cereals, wool and sheep meat industries. c What action could you take now to prepare? What are others in your region doing? What benefits have they The Wimmera Southern Mallee benefited from a major upgrade to experienced? the Wimmera Stock and Domestic water supply through the piping of the entire channel network. The water savings are supporting the c Can you prioritise actions that also have other benefits, development of new businesses within the network. such as emissions reduction, financial, community or environmental advantages? This relatively undiversified economy means that the Wimmera Southern Mallee faces challenges as a result of climate change c Does climate change present any opportunities you can impacts, particularly for cereal cropping and the wool and take advantage of? sheep meat industry. These include lower cereal and wool production, more heat stress, less reproduction, and lower The information, case studies and links in this brochure can growth rates. For cropping, the lower incidence of frost may help get you started. allow for earlier planting and lead to increased yields if there is enough soil moisture. However, while the total annual number of frost days is expected to decrease, an increase in spring frosts is possible, especially over the next decade or so. Through the Birchip Cropping Group, researchers worked with farmers to assess how different climate change scenarios are likely to affect cereal crop yields. The costs and benefits of different adaptation options were examined, including changed crop varieties and planting schedules, to see the extent to which farmers could offset the adverse impacts of climate change. The Australian Grain Free Air CO2 Enrichment (AGFACE) facility, based in Horsham, studies the interactions of increased carbon dioxide levels on crop productivity in an open field setting. This world leading research is identifying how to take advantage of increased crop growth rates, without compromising quality and nutritional value. 4 INFRASTRUCTURE HEALTH AND COMMUNITY The region has significant infrastructure assets.
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