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Pennsylvania's Rendell Gets No Bounce from Budget, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corbett Is Only 2010 Contender with Name

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Pennsylvania's Rendell Gets No Bounce from Budget, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corbett Is Only 2010 Contender with Name FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER 30, 2009 PENNSYLVANIA’S RENDELL GETS NO BOUNCE FROM BUDGET, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; CORBETT IS ONLY 2010 CONTENDER WITH NAME RECOGNITION Despite reaching agreement with the Legislature on a state budget, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell’s job approval rating remains decidedly negative, 42 – 51 percent, a slight improvement from his record low of 39 – 53 percent recorded July 21, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 26 percent of voters approve of his handling of the state budget, while 53 percent say he has been too inflexible and 30 percent call him courageous. Only 31 percent of voters approve of the budget agreement, while 37 percent disapprove and 31 percent aren’t sure, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Rendell is most responsible for the impasse, 27 percent say, as 21 percent blame legislative Republicans; 9 percent legislative Democrats and 30 percent say they are equally to blame. In the 2010 race for Governor, State Attorney General Tom Corbett’s edge in name recognition gives him wide leads in the race for the Republican nomination and over two of the leading Democratic contenders in trial heats. “Gov. Ed Rendell remains at the low ebb of his governorship when it comes to public opinion, perhaps not surprising given the lengthy budget stalemate. He does better with women, who disapprove 49 – 44 percent, than with men, who disapprove 54 – 41 percent. The legislature’s rating, where 27 percent approve and 64 percent disapprove, is even worse,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “But since the Governor is term-limited and voters tend to like their own representative or senator much better than the overall body, it’s not clear if the budget hassle in Harrisburg will have a major impact on Pennsylvania politics, at least for the 2010 elections.” -more- Quinnipiac University Poll/September 30, 2009 – page 2 Pennsylvania voters split 43 – 44 percent on whether they wanted the budget to cut more spending or believing that further cuts would jeopardize vital state services. And 57 percent say that while it was not a perfect budget, they are relieved that the state finally has one. One-third, 33 percent, say lawmakers and the Governor should have kept working. By an overwhelming 67 – 27 percent margin, voters back the idea of allowing the state’s existing casinos to offer table games such as poker and blackjack as a way to increase the revenue that goes to the state. Attorney General Corbett is the one candidate for Governor relatively well-known to Pennsylvanians. A total of 43 percent of voters – including 60 percent of Republicans – view him favorably. Only 7 percent overall and 2 percent of GOPers view him unfavorably. That’s why he leads U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach, the other major candidate for the GOP nomination, by a 42 – 13 percent margin in a trial heat among registered Republicans. With 46 percent of Democrats undecided, there is no clear leader in the race for the Democratic nomination to succeed Rendell. Three candidates – Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato at 14 percent, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel, the party’s U.S. Senate nominee in 2004 with 12 percent, and State Auditor General Jack Wagner at11 percent – are bunched together, with Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty at 8 percent and businessman Tom Knox at 5 percent. “The Democratic race for Governor is wide open,” said Brown. “The candidates just aren’t that visible to most voters and that race is still far, far away from even having a front- runner. The Republicans are another story. Corbett has a large lead and although it is certainly not insurmountable, Congressman Gerlach certainly has his work cut out for him.” In general election trial heats, Corbett would defeat Onorato 47 – 28 percent and Wagner 44 – 29 percent if the election were held today. From September 21 – 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,100 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 465 Republicans and 479 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling .xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 2 3 2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tom Knox, Joe Hoeffel and Chris Doherty, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Onorato 14% 13% 15% Wagner 11 14 9 Knox 5 3 6 Hoeffel 12 16 9 Doherty 8 12 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 2 DK/NA 46 37 53 3. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Repubilcan primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Gerlach and Tom Corbett, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Gerlach 13% 18% 8% Corbett 42 48 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - DK/NA 43 31 56 TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Gerlach, Tom Corbett, and Pat Meehan, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPS Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 Gerlach 13 15 Corbett 42 38 Meehan na 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - DK/NA 43 37 6. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Onorato 28% 4% 57% 18% 25% 30% 30% Corbett 47 77 19 46 55 39 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 24 18 22 33 19 29 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Onorato 42% 47% 20% 22% 28% 30% 18% Corbett 39 23 55 48 46 58 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 - - - 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - 1 1 3 DK/NA 16 30 25 30 26 8 27 3 7. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Wagner 29% 4% 59% 22% 28% 30% 33% Corbett 44 78 15 41 53 36 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 25 17 25 34 18 31 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Wagner 39% 51% 24% 23% 26% 28% 22% Corbett 37 21 49 49 47 52 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - - - - 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 2 - 1 2 2 DK/NA 21 28 25 28 26 15 27 11. Is your opinion of - Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 13% 22% 6% 14% 17% 9% 13% Unfavorable 6 5 8 4 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 80 71 85 82 75 84 79 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 1 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 3% 15% 12% 30% 12% 4% 10% Unfavorable - 8 5 13 4 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 93 77 82 57 84 90 84 REFUSED 4 - 1 - - 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 13 16 15 Unfavorable 6 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 80 78 79 REFUSED 2 1 1 5 12. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 17% 10% 23% 15% 15% 19% 16% Unfavorable 11 17 5 12 13 9 19 Hvn't hrd enough 71 71 72 70 71 71 63 REFUSED 2 3 - 2 2 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 55% 12% 5% 9% 23% 30% 5% Unfavorable 27 5 4 4 16 29 4 Hvn't hrd enough 14 80 91 87 59 39 90 REFUSED 3 3 - - 2 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 Favorable 17 16 Unfavorable 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 71 78 REFUSED 2 1 13. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 22% 15% 31% 18% 25% 18% 27% Unfavorable 6 11 3 6 8 5 9 Hvn't hrd enough 71 73 65 74 66 76 64 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 47% 25% 13% 12% 25% 36% 13% Unfavorable 17 - 2 7 7 12 4 Hvn't hrd enough 36 72 85 81 68 52 82 REFUSED 1 3 - - - - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 Favorable 22 18 Unfavorable 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 71 76 REFUSED 1 1 6 14.
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